Navigated to Louis Christopher: Are We Heading for a Market Slowdown or Another Surge? - Transcript

Louis Christopher: Are We Heading for a Market Slowdown or Another Surge?

Episode Transcript

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[00:00:00] Meighan Wells: If you are planning to buy your first home in 2026, use the holiday period to get ready. The game has changed again, and the buyers who prepare now will have a massive [00:00:10] advantage.

[00:00:10] Veronica Morgan: Interest rates in 2026 may or may not change, but affordability and competition are still real. So if you are hoping things will magically get easier this [00:00:20] year, they won't. But the good news, there are smart ways to get in sooner without overpaying and without compromising on quality.

[00:00:27] Meighan Wells: In our latest episode of your first home buyer [00:00:30] guide, we are breaking down exactly what's changing, what's staying the same, and what you can do right now to set yourself up for success in 2026.

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[00:00:42] Speaker: Welcome to your first home buyer. Guide the podcast for first home buyers who want to feel confident, smart, and totally [00:00:50] in control of their property journey. I'm Veronica, and that was Megan. And yes, we are probably old enough to be your mom's, which is a good thing because between us, we've got decades of experience [00:01:00] and we've got your back every step of the way.

[00:01:03] Speaker 2: Our mission to cut through the Bs, keep it real, and make sure you are buying smarter, not stressing [00:01:10] harder. Quick heads up. We've created the First Home Buyer course, our step-by-step program to help you buy your first place with confidence and without the costly mistakes. The [00:01:20] links in the show notes, but stick with us first.

[00:01:22] Speaker: You'll wanna hear this episode. I.

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[00:01:28] Meighan Wells: Today we're talking about something [00:01:30] really important, what you need to know to buy your first home in 2026. Can you even believe that it's 2026.

[00:01:36] Meighan Wells: The market has shifted again. Interest rates have a question mark over them, [00:01:40] and affordability and supply challenges are still real. So if you are planning to buy in 2026, this episode gives you a clearer picture of what's ahead and what you can do right [00:01:50] now to prepare.

[00:01:50] Veronica Morgan: Exactly. We'll be covering what's changing in the property landscape while staying the same and what smart buyers are doing differently. And of course, we're gonna share some practical tips to [00:02:00] get you a well ahead. But if you want the full step by step system, you will have to buy the course. You know, we've got a course that teaches you everything you need to know step by step [00:02:10] throughout a whole process.

[00:02:11] Veronica Morgan: And it's called the First Home Buy course. It's very imaginatively named, isn't it, Megan?

[00:02:15] Meighan Wells: Well, it says what it does, and that's, I guess that's the whole thing. Like the whole thing is no [00:02:20] bs. it says what it does. The reason that we are here is that we want you to buy well, and that is the entire reason that we do this podcast, even so that people know what [00:02:30] mistakes to avoid. But of course you only get bits and pieces.

[00:02:33] Meighan Wells: So the three things we want you to take away from today, really important is that in this year, in 2026, the property [00:02:40] market will still favor buyers who are financially and strategically prepared, not just lucky. that's not a strategy. and secondly, government incentives and lending policies are [00:02:50] shifting.

[00:02:50] Meighan Wells: They're constantly shifting. So understanding what applies to you is critical, and having the right person on your side is incredibly important. And then the third thing we want you to take away [00:03:00] from today is getting clear on your strategy. Early in the year will save you months of frustration and possibly tens and tens of thousands of dollars.

[00:03:09] Veronica Morgan: [00:03:10] Yep. All right, so let's talk about, what the outlook's looking for, looking like in 2026. Do you wanna kick off Megan?

[00:03:17] Meighan Wells: Yeah, look, and you and I never pretend to have a crystal [00:03:20] ball. We do not prophesize about the market. We don't say we think this is gonna happen. It's never been something that you and I have done. There's plenty of people that will put their name [00:03:30] to, to forecast. but we can tell you that from a big picture point of view.

[00:03:34] Meighan Wells: if we look back a little bit at 2025, we saw pretty steady growth across most capital [00:03:40] cities, but not just like, it wasn't like the wild surges that we'd had previously, particularly that really fast post pandemic kind of period where, um, you know, it was [00:03:50] a bit nuts.

[00:03:51] Veronica Morgan: Or 2023 in Perth.

[00:03:53] Meighan Wells: Yes. Well, yeah, well, Perth and Brisbane are still a bit crazy, to be honest.

[00:03:57] Meighan Wells: but in a lot of the markets it's probably a little bit more [00:04:00] balanced, although affordability remains tough for first time buyers. Although Veronica, I did see a post that you did on LinkedIn the other day where, you did explain and, and if you're not. Connected with Veronica [00:04:10] on LinkedIn.

[00:04:10] Meighan Wells: Do yourself a favor. There's some great little nuggets that come through there and myself for that matter. we both post different things about our markets, you said if Sydney was actually [00:04:20] unaffordable, then no property would be transacting. and your point, which was really well made is.

[00:04:25] Meighan Wells: It is unaffordable for certain segments of the market, and I think that's important because [00:04:30] there are still transactions going on in all locations. Okay,although, affordability is tough for first time buyers, especially in Sydney, and competitions in [00:04:40] really hot, still in Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Darwin, and as, as well as heating up in Melbourne, there is some good news and that's regardless of what's happening around us in the [00:04:50] world.

[00:04:50] Meighan Wells: Preparation will pay off a lot more than panic will.

[00:04:52] Veronica Morgan: That is it. And you know what? The buyers who will do best in 2026 won't necessarily have the highest incomes, but they'll be the ones [00:05:00] who've built a plan and stuck to it. we are seeing a gap widen between those who've done their research and those who are winging it. And I guess that's a big theme for 2026.

[00:05:08] Veronica Morgan: For us, it's strategy. [00:05:10] Beats emotion. time and time again, we deal with students in the course. The people that come along and do the course, they come along to campfire every week and they're not always the biggest income [00:05:20] earners, but they're really determined and they really focus and they've made it a priority and they see success.

[00:05:26] Veronica Morgan: It's amazing. So we can see it in the evidence of the people that [00:05:30] we are helping, that this is. What we can impart to you today. Preparation, absolutely a hundred percent beats emotion, strategy, beats, [00:05:40] emotion, everything.

[00:05:41] Meighan Wells: Or winging it. We definitely don't want you winging it. And let's not forget, the rental market is still pretty tight. vacancy rates are really low. And of course vacancy is how [00:05:50] many properties out of the available pool of properties there are to rent are currently available for renters. a lot of buyers are moving out of renting because.

[00:05:59] Meighan Wells: [00:06:00] Rents have skyrocketed, and also they want some more stability. It's a lot. It's a really big reason that people end up buying a home is to move outta that rental cycle. But we always say, [00:06:10] don't let frustration push you into buying the wrong property. Take that emotion and channel it into preparation instead.

[00:06:17] Veronica Morgan: So if we are looking, heading to this [00:06:20] year, this new year, then there's some finance and policy changes to watch. You know, if we look on the money side, the Reserve Bank has been holding steady rates steady for a while now, and there's been talk. [00:06:30] Of a possible rate cut in 2026 for the last few months, but that's a bit up in the air now as inflation is proving to be sticky.

[00:06:37] Veronica Morgan: So maybe rates might go up. I, I [00:06:40] think most people are sort of betting that no, they're not gonna go up, but they are gonna take a lot longer before they come down any further. But who knows? And so I guess what this means though is that your borrow [00:06:50] capacity might or might not improve. Slightly either way, no dramatic change is expected.

[00:06:56] Veronica Morgan: Lenders are still cautious. Serviceability, buffers remain high. [00:07:00] a PR has been putting in some breaks to curb, some risky lending to investors. So, uh, you know, if you're, if you're a low income and you wanting to rent vest, that might be [00:07:10] a struggle for you. So there's gonna be some constraints on borrowing power moving ahead, and it's not gonna ease up.

[00:07:16] Veronica Morgan: I don't think there's gonna be any great easing of borrowing capacity.

[00:07:19] Meighan Wells: [00:07:20] Yeah, we're also seeing some adjustments in,government incentives. The first home guarantee scheme has been expanded again, and this has allowed a lot more buyers to purchase with [00:07:30] smaller deposits. And some lenders are starting to accept joint applications from friends and siblings, not just couples.

[00:07:36] Meighan Wells: So it's opening up,some more opportunities now. That [00:07:40] is a really big change for younger buyers who are looking to pull their resources now. A word of caution. You know this is great as an idea, but you really need to [00:07:50] go into this with eyes wide open. Lots of preparation, lots of talking about what ifs, exit strategies, written agreements, all these sorts of things.

[00:07:58] Meighan Wells: We've done a number of podcasts on [00:08:00] buying with, with others, whether it's a sibling or a friend or whatever the case may be. You can do it, it can work. But it can also be a disaster. So preparation, again, [00:08:10] incredibly important. And remember that you still need to fund stamp duty unless your state has concessions within the price range you're buying with.

[00:08:18] Meighan Wells: Borrow 95% is [00:08:20] a very leveraged position. you don't have much equity in the property. Now, this is fine when prices rise, but it can be incredibly painful when rates rise.

[00:08:29] Meighan Wells: So if you're going [00:08:30] to use the scheme, you need to be smarter with your asset selection, not buying a loser or something that might go backwards in value because you could really get. Stuck, or be in a [00:08:40] position where you actually can't even offload the property because it's not worth what you paid for it.

[00:08:44] Meighan Wells: and this is exactly the kind of framework that we teach in the first home buy course.

[00:08:48] Veronica Morgan: And so [00:08:50] incentives like this, certainly fuel demand, they actually result in prices rising. And this, this increased, access to this scheme is already fueling extra man [00:09:00] demand in the entry level market, which is. Now and has been for the last few months, the fastest growing market segment. And this is classic first home buyer price bracket.

[00:09:09] Veronica Morgan: entry [00:09:10] level stock is receiving the most competition because it's the only thing still affordable in inverted commas. and also investors compete in this place, as well. So on the whole. when we [00:09:20] look at all this, there's no real signs of a slowdown going into 26. Generally across the board, you know, supply is tight.

[00:09:26] Veronica Morgan: rents are sky high, population pressure is easing, [00:09:30] but you know, it's still there. Construction costs are still high. new supplies not coming in at the volumes that, governments have been wanting it to, and prices have been [00:09:40] rising. At the very end of 2025, prices were rising in all capitals and in.

[00:09:43] Veronica Morgan: All price segments. So we might find that moving into 2026 that some markets might speed [00:09:50] up. particularly locations with tight rental markets, good infrastructure and low new supply. And I guess you're thinking Brisbane the middle and inner rings, parts of Perth, Adelaide's, middle ring, [00:10:00] select pockets of Sydney, west and Southwest.

[00:10:01] Veronica Morgan: this is. Something to be very mindful of and why we encourage you rather than sit back and wait for things to get better. you [00:10:10] really need to get active in your preparation. Get ready and get out there to take advantage of your situation if you're ready.

[00:10:15] Meighan Wells: Yeah, absolutely. One more thing. Be careful with new shared equity schemes. Okay? [00:10:20] They can sound great on paper. They can sound great from the people that are selling them, but you need to understand exactly what share the government keeps or the company that you're [00:10:30] engaging with, who might be, offering a shared equity situation.

[00:10:33] Meighan Wells: And you need to understand how it affects your capital growth over time. It is not free money. It is a. [00:10:40] Financial partnership and they would not be doing this if there wasn't something in it for them. So you just need to understand what that is.

[00:10:46] Veronica Morgan: And like any partnership. Gotta know what's in the agreement, [00:10:50] what's in the contract, what's in the fine print. Alright, so how to best prepare for purchasing 2026. You know, we, let's talk about what you should be doing right now if you're planning to buy in [00:11:00] this new year. first of all, you'd need to clarify your budget.

[00:11:03] Veronica Morgan: not just what a lender says, you can borrow, but what you can comfortably afford month to month. Sometimes people go the opposite. They think [00:11:10] about, oh, what feels safe, but they can actually borrow more. So you sort of need to understand both sides of that equation. interest rates might drop a little, but don't bank on it.

[00:11:19] Veronica Morgan: They might also [00:11:20] rise if inflation doesn't go down. So base your plans on today's rates, but build in a buffer so you're not overexpose.

[00:11:26] Meighan Wells: Absolutely the best buyers are already speaking with a mortgage broker [00:11:30] to check their borrowing power and also clean up their finances. You know, this is a great time post Christmas. you've done your Christmas spending. it's a great time to really look at [00:11:40] things like paying down short term debts, maybe building up a savings buffer.

[00:11:44] Meighan Wells: Make sure that your credit file is. Spotless, you're on top of everything. maybe a little less [00:11:50] coffee and, a little more modest restaurants, uh, these little steps, they can make a really big difference when you're ready to actually apply for your home loan.

[00:11:58] Veronica Morgan: And then there's your strategy, [00:12:00] right? Too many people jump straight into scrolling online. Um,

[00:12:03] Meighan Wells: the fun bit.

[00:12:04] Veronica Morgan: go, well, you can go to the portals, but you could also use ai. Now there's all these other platforms you can use that really make it a lot easier, you [00:12:10] know, but you need a plan. You need to know what type of property really suits your lifestyle and.

[00:12:14] Veronica Morgan: Has long term growth potential. and that's where due diligence comes in. You know, understanding location factors, [00:12:20] infrastructure plans, property condition before you fall in love with pretty photos, but also really doing your where to buy process. You know, it's a process that we teach you in the first home buyer course, [00:12:30] and it's a really, really valuable process to go through to give you clarity on what your strategy should be.

[00:12:37] Meighan Wells: yeah, the three it is a really great [00:12:40] framework to work through. If you're buying with a partner or a friend. Get clear on your joint goals and expectations early in the piece, not when things go wrong.

[00:12:48] Meighan Wells: We've seen plenty of [00:12:50] relationships tested because people didn't talk about things like exit strategies. You know, what, how are we gonna fund repairs? Or what happens if we wanna refinance? all these things need to be [00:13:00] talked about. Buying together can work. Brilliantly and for those who've listened for the long term, that's how I got into the market with my brother.

[00:13:07] Meighan Wells: but it only works if you do the groundwork, right?[00:13:10]

[00:13:11] Veronica Morgan: So let's talk about where a lot of first home buyers really get stuck. let's be honest, buying your first home is still overwhelming. the common mistake [00:13:20] that we see is analysis paralysis, spending months. Researching online, but never committing to a clear plan. they get caught between fomo, fear of overpaying, [00:13:30] the market moves while they're hesitating.

[00:13:31] Veronica Morgan: Sometimes they listen to every single one of our podcast episodes, but they're even overwhelmed because it's not in order. Like the course we teach you is in order, right? The [00:13:40] podcast has got lots of additional that will give you lots of layers and layers of. More intel, but the process is so important and if you don't get clarity around that and you just keep gathering more [00:13:50] information and not doing anything, information without action doesn't get you anywhere, then that is a classic mistake.

[00:13:56] Veronica Morgan: We see a lot of people making.

[00:13:57] Meighan Wells: Yeah, and then those same people will say, [00:14:00] oh, we've been looking for a year and prices have gone up again. It's like, we haven't really been looking for a year. You don't know what a good property looks like. Every home probably feels like a risk, [00:14:10] like, oh, dunno, dunno. How I feel about that.

[00:14:13] Veronica Morgan: Well, it's, no, it's all too expensive. It's crazy. People are stupid. They

[00:14:16] Meighan Wells: Why are people paying [00:14:20] that?

[00:14:20] Veronica Morgan: We've heard this so many times. It's common to think this, right?

[00:14:23] Meighan Wells: It is and we laugh because we hear it so often and sometimes it really is about adjusting that mindset to say, well. [00:14:30] The market is what it is. You can't influence it. we can't influence it. there are a few things that can influence market conditions. You have to wrap your head around it and have the [00:14:40] confidence to move forward with the right research at the right time.

[00:14:43] Meighan Wells: and the truth is education gives you confidence. And it's one of those things, and it's why we created, the Fone. By course, [00:14:50] it, it walks you through every step from finance, preparation and negotiation, so you can stop guessing and actually start moving forward with confidence.

[00:14:57] Veronica Morgan: knowledge is your edge. You know, once you understand the [00:15:00] process, you can make much quicker, clearer, informed decisions when the right property comes along. It's really how you avoid emotional decisions, and it's how you outsmart the [00:15:10] competition. not by rushing, but by being ready. It just in my office.

[00:15:13] Veronica Morgan: Today, my team in my buyer's agency business, Rachel, one of my team, she was saying how she got contacted by [00:15:20] two people separately, independently, both of which had actually missed out on properties that our clients had bought. they didn't know that when they contacted [00:15:30] us, they just realized that they need some help, right?

[00:15:32] Veronica Morgan: And when she's, of course, she's sitting here hearing this story about the properties they missed out on, and she's like, wow, you know, this is great to have this intel about the buyers that missed [00:15:40] out and they missed out because she. Had a purchasing strategy, you know, because when we teach you the sort of things we do in our [00:15:50] businesses, and both of these people could have paid more as well.

[00:15:53] Veronica Morgan: They actually could have afforded more and they could have competed harder against our clients and made our clients pay more as well. But they didn't. [00:16:00] And all this is because our clients, we had that strategy and this is the sort of thing we are trying to teach you as first home buyers. you really can give yourself an edge.

[00:16:08] Veronica Morgan: It's so important. Yeah.

[00:16:09] Meighan Wells: Yeah, [00:16:10] absolutely. Let's look at what the big picture of 2026 is actually about. It's about clarity. It's about clarity, not chaos. And I think a lot of people have felt [00:16:20] really chaotic throughout 2025 if they've had even dipped their toe in the water. so if there's one word we wanna give you. It's clarity,the frenzy of some markets might die down a little [00:16:30] bit, and you have to be ready for that.

[00:16:31] Meighan Wells: You have to understand how to look for the indicators of market movement, but others may actually heat up. And we're always focused on the fundamentals. Good [00:16:40] locations, sound advice, realistic expectations. The buyers that do best in a changing market are the ones who focus on value, not hype.

[00:16:49] Veronica Morgan: [00:16:50] And so don't get discouraged by the headlines in traditional media, but equally, don't get overly encouraged by influencers on TikTok because you've got two ends of the spectrum [00:17:00] there. You know, there's overly positive and overly negative, right? There is always noise. There's noise about affordability, interest rates, housing supply, but there are actually [00:17:10] opportunities in many markets, and the key is knowing, you know where to look.

[00:17:14] Veronica Morgan: What to compromise on, what? To never compromise on really where to focus.

[00:17:19] Meighan Wells: And how to work out [00:17:20] what to pay.

[00:17:20] Meighan Wells: you're right Veronica. You don't need to know everything about property. You need to know the right framework so that you can assess things and make really good decisions. we really [00:17:30] put this together to, to help people buy smart and safe and strategically no matter what the market's doing.

[00:17:35] Veronica Morgan: So if you are planning on buying your first home in [00:17:40] 2026, particularly if you thought you'd buy in 2025 and didn't get around to it, right? Start now because you are up against two forces. You're up against rising [00:17:50] prices in your price bracket, pretty much across the board and also borrowing capacity. It hasn't actually improved because rates haven't really moved much, right?

[00:17:58] Meighan Wells: Yeah. [00:18:00] 2026, this is the year, right? we don't have 20, 25 anymore. We don't have 2023 anymore. This is the year. This is now, this is forward. We don't look back. we bought for a client in [00:18:10] 2025, the end of 2025. Who started the process of looking for, um, it was an investment property in 2014, and they were so worried about rising [00:18:20] prices at that time that they pulled the plug and said, oh, we're gonna wait for things to slow down.

[00:18:24] Meighan Wells: Well, they didn't slow down and 10 years later it was the greatest regret. In their words, the greatest [00:18:30] regret of their actual financial, their entire financial plan. So they're in it now and they're happy, but if you are looking at 2026, it's not wait for the dip [00:18:40] year. it's shaping up to be, you know, getting yourself in a position to be prepared properly or risk getting left behind again.

[00:18:48] Veronica Morgan: Yep. And this is why [00:18:50] being organized early matters, you know, get your finances in shape, get clear on your strategy. Don't try to do it all alone. And remember, the property decisions are too important to lead [00:19:00] Chance. So head over to our website, home buyer academy.com. You check out the first home buyer course.

[00:19:05] Veronica Morgan: It is your step-by-step roadmap to buy with confidence.

[00:19:09] Meighan Wells: Yeah, thanks for [00:19:10] joining us today. If you found this episode helpful, share it with a friend who's thinking about buying this year, and don't forget to subscribe so you don't miss an episode.

[00:19:17] Veronica Morgan: We will see you next time.

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[00:19:18]

[00:20:26] Speaker 4: Thanks for joining us. If you've enjoyed this podcast, we encourage you to [00:20:30] join our Facebook group. It's called Your First Home Buyer Guide Australia, and it's your opportunity to connect with us and ask us your questions, which we will answer, meaning you [00:20:40] can make sure that you are not getting led down the garden path.

[00:20:43] Speaker 4: We hope to see you there soon.

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