Gary D Stocker (00:01.772) Welcome back to a special episode of This Week in College Viability. Hi, everybody. Gary Stocker in front of the blue Yeti microphone yet again. If you've been following the news in higher education, you know the headlines. Budget deficits, program closures, faculty protests. The narrative is almost always financial institutions are just running out of money. But my guest today argues that we are looking at the wrong ledger. We're going to discuss the hidden pressures behind the viability conversation. going to look at the dangerous disconnect, and I talk about this all the time, between enrollment teams who are pressured to bring students in and academic affairs teams who often don't get them out to graduation in four years or even six years. And we're to talk about why headlines regarding program cuts often miss the point and why retention, not recruitment, is the only metric. that actually proves a college is healthy. Joining me is Greg Pilar, whose Field Notes column is one of the most informative newsletters in higher education. I read it every time it comes out. Greg, you and Jeff, my everyday reads on this kind of stuff. And Greg brings a perspective from both the faculty and the administrative sides to the house. Greg Pilar, welcome to the podcast. Greg Pillar (01:22.832) Gary, thanks for that very kind intro. I'm thrilled to be here and excited to have this conversation with you. Gary D Stocker (01:31.598) So before we get started, Greg, talk a little bit about the history and reasons behind Field Notes. It's a good publication, Greg Pillar (01:40.324) Yeah, no, thank you. It's something that came about within the last year. You know, going, it came about really from me progressing from doing some just separate writing blog postings that I started doing. And that came about in large part from, I would just call it frustrations I was experiencing in my day to day job, which was as an administrator and assistant provost at a different university. And whether it was frustrations coming out of a meeting I just had with colleagues trying to work on something, whether it was frustrations with working with students and managing student situations or just frustrations I was feeling from what was happening across higher ed, it came as sort of like a forced outlet, a way for me to be able to sort of, you know, put what was frustrating me down on paper, write about it a little bit or on digital paper and post it. And over time I posted a few articles that I then shared on LinkedIn, column articles, essays, blog posts, and they were fairly well received. And then over time I moved more into a newsletter format. At first, the early days I was doing it weekly and then very quickly realized I can't sustain that, especially with a day job. And so it moved about roughly now I try to make sure I have one out every other week. And it's both one for me, it's a way for me to keep active, keep current and on top of what's happening across higher ed. That helps me do my job as an assistant provost for academic affairs, even better at my institution. But also, again, I feel it's a very important outlet for me to be able to sort of share not just my goal is for it not just simply to be the rehash some of the stories that are out there. I really do want to try to, okay, how can, how can folks potentially use this or what is, is maybe am I seen in that story or in that, um, news article that could get missed and that, you know, Hey, wait a minute, I'm picking up on this and this is something important to consider. And finally, at times I pick up on threads across different stories. Greg Pillar (04:06.148) whether it's because they happen to all come roughly around the same time, or in many cases, you know, over the course of a couple of months, I'll be able to weave together things I'm able to pull together from multiple articles or multiple events that may have happened out there together and to come up with a way for me to show how I'm processing it, how I'm thinking through it. And so that's where I really love it when I do receive feedback because Gary D Stocker (04:29.965) Yeah. Greg Pillar (04:34.638) I can tell where is it resonating? Where am I maybe still missing? Gary D Stocker (04:40.366) So let's talk about enrollment. And enrollment teams at colleges are obviously focused on hitting the numbers, nothing wrong with that. And they rely on grade point average and test scores from high schools. And I guess Greg, in your experience, why are those measures, those metrics failing to protect a student's actual readiness for today's modern college environment? Greg Pillar (05:03.886) Yeah, that's an excellent question. I think GPA and test scores, they do tell us something, but they tell us far less than we pretend or than, you know, we acknowledge that they're backward looking measures in a, you know, in a system that's more forward facing. So how well have they been able to navigate high school? How well have they been able to navigate their K-12 education? And it, you know, the modern college environment, students have to navigate complexity, complicated, fragmented schedules, online platforms, competing responsibilities, financial uncertainty, life, managing families. all this stuff are things that GPA does not capture, nor do test scores. those measures, you know, they miss persistence. They miss, you know, how well is that student able to seek help when they may need it? even if they're resistant to it. How do you manage ambiguity? How do you manage your time? Those are all things that GPA and test scores miss. And way back when, I'm sure that was perhaps more of a predictor or indicator of how well someone would do. But as we've seen, over time, GPAs, I don't know, to me it feels like every year, whether I was a faculty member or administrator, hearing the report on this year's incoming class, the GPA always seems to keep going up, up, up, always smarter. But yet there definitely is this gap of their readiness and ability to be successful. Gary D Stocker (06:34.882) You're always smarter. Gary D Stocker (06:43.788) And we saw that in the University of San Diego report a couple of weeks ago where the math skills were so bad. And for those that listen to this week podcast regularly, you've probably heard me engage in a loving rant about how pathetic the four-year graduation rates are in colleges across the country, both public and private. And I guess Greg, if enrollment focuses on getting students in, and you've heard me rant about that's too much of the focus, and academics, the teaching part, focuses on teaching students, Who brings those, who marries those two processes together? And why in your judgment, why in your experience are students falling through the cracks and in part, why do we have such pathetically low graduation rates? Greg Pillar (07:28.324) Yeah, no, what you just described, I think, is one of the most consequential gaps in higher education. And it's largely operational. Enrollment teams, like you said, are optimized around access and urgency. Academic units are optimized around curriculum and instruction. But that transition between those worlds is often handled as an administrative moment rather than a developmental one. and students fall through the cracks during the first term or the first year, not necessarily because anyone is not doing their job, but because no one is truly owning the handoff. And it's more than just a handoff. The handoff is the initial, but then there needs to be this sort of follow-up. Now, as I'm saying that, people are gonna be like, well, of course, we've got Centers for Student Success. We've got those kinds of efforts, but... Again, they tend at times to be segmented and they're not necessarily covering the holistic journey of the student. And I would say there are definitely some schools that are starting to do that better. But there's too much put into just orientation. There's too much just put into many universities have a like a roadmap course or a university like a course that all first year students take that first semester. that does help with uncovering and working through some of that, but it's a one and done, you they have that semester and then that's it. And, you know, that definitely helps perhaps some students, but there are some who still will continue to struggle. And so the, the, the, the student who is heavily supported during recruitment suddenly now has to navigate systems that assume independence, fluency, confidence and depending upon what school you're going to that can be, you know, range from semi clear clear to being completely cryptic. And that's where, you know, I think the term that's often been used as the hidden curriculum in higher ed. A book I recently read in thoroughly enjoy hacking college talks about it at a great length. But I think that's part of the problem with that gap between enrollment. Greg Pillar (09:49.942) and academics is schools need to do a much, much better job of facilitating that transition, but then seeing it through. Gary D Stocker (09:59.31) So Greg, this is your chance, I'm going do a follow up to this. This is your chance to say, stock or you're nuts. And Lord knows there are many that would love the chance to say that. And I make the case regularly that there are millions of college students who have a college experience that's fabulous. I'm a perfect example. I'm guessing you're a perfect example. My wife, my children, many of my extended family, fabulous experience, great value out of the college education, no matter what the cost was. Greg Pillar (10:07.664) you Gary D Stocker (10:27.852) And I make the case regularly that it's those marginal students who aren't prepared either academically or even financially to pursue that college education. And I'm to use some strong words here that colleges are taking advantage of to get them to enroll. Am I right or wrong? Greg Pillar (10:45.434) You're not wrong. You're not wrong. mean, I think for. And this has been this phrase I'm about to say has been I've heard quite a bit, so it's but you know, really college. It's not that college is not right for for everyone. It's that college is not necessarily right for everyone at the time that they graduate high school. You know, depending upon where you're at socially, financially, academically. There's different reasons why that you are not yet, it's just not the right move yet. But our society is so ingrained. And for me, I remember growing up and going through high school, that was the only what was considered viable, successful avenue after high school was for you to go to college. Anything else, it was a level of failure or not seeing your potential. And I think... And we are starting to normalize a little bit other routes. And that's what higher ed is seeing with so many alternatives, viable alternatives that people are pursuing. But that's part of the shift that needs to take place amongst people in higher ed. And by that, I mean the administrators, the academic leaders, the leaders, the faculty is recognizing that the world's much bigger than them. Gary D Stocker (12:09.398) Yeah, yeah. I was part of a team that did some research and a paper coming out soon on excess instructional capacity. And the numbers are daunting. It was both face-to-face instruction and online instruction. And online instruction, in theory, could be limitless capacity. But instructional capacity is often overlooked in the college viability conversation. Greg Pillar (12:18.542) Mmm. Gary D Stocker (12:38.774) opinion, your opinion, are we asking faculty to do the impossible by putting modern learners into outdated academic instructions? Greg Pillar (12:50.414) Yeah, I would say in many ways we are asking faculty to do something close to impossible. We've layered modern learners, working students, students who are caregivers, first gen, onto an infrastructure that was built for residential, full-time students with time and flexibility. And faculty are often incredibly committed but they're operating in that system with that constrained flexibility. Fixed core schedules, narrow definitions of progress, limited support systems. And that disconnect isn't a faculty failure, I think it's a design problem. And viability isn't just about how many students that you enroll, but it's about whether or not your academic core can actually absorb and support the students that you say you serve. And I think this starts to get a little bit at, and I agree with you, you you talk about the more than half of the universities, colleges and universities out there don't graduate, the student was over a four year period, you know, that the graduation rate is less than 50 % for more than half the universities out there. That's crazy. And I think where that... You know, I would guess that we probably have continued to see a struggling trend with that is because, you know, not a little bit different from the gap we talked about earlier, which was that enrollment to academics gap. But again, that gap from what's been perceived as the traditional walk into college high school. That that gap there, people are playing the blame game, you know, whether it's writing skills, whether it's math skills. who is responsible for that. The bottom line is if the institution is going to admit that student, in many ways, they're taking on that obligation that they have in place, the ability, the support systems, the ability to help them persist and graduate, whether they are really, they're brilliant and they're gonna be able to move through swiftly, or they've got a couple areas where there's some, Greg Pillar (15:08.036) deficiencies and they need help through that, you know, to me there is some responsibility for the, there is responsibility by the institution to see that through. Gary D Stocker (15:20.536) So when I do the regular Monday this week in College Viability Podcast, I always lead off with layoffs, cutbacks, and closures. And there's not closures every week, sometimes there are, but there's layoffs and cutbacks in such numbers, Greg, that I don't even include all of them in the podcast because I want the podcast to be more than just that stuff. And I've teased folks before that if a college changes the font on its business card, Faculty, staff, and students will protest. Tongue in cheek, of course, is when I do that. But the headlines for these program cuts in particular are usually framed as faculty versus administration. And from your perspective, what is the nuance that the media and others are missing in that us versus them kind of set up? Greg Pillar (16:12.174) The, I think what's usually missing is the. What's happening at the moment is often the result of a longer timeline of events unfolding. Whether or not the university was properly, you know, during that timeline, managing things correctly or not, it's, it's, and you know, that's, mean, it's not a case of where over, just like with the closures, it's not a case where overnight, boom, the program went, you know, fell apart. And so program closures often reflect years of misalignment between enrollment, labor demand, instructional capacity, student outcomes. And so by the time a cut becomes public, the real decisions were postponed, you know, long, long ago. And, and that's where it isn't necessarily faculty versus administration. It's often leadership versus time. And delay compounds that complexity. Gary D Stocker (17:03.342) Yeah. Gary D Stocker (17:12.014) Interesting. Greg Pillar (17:17.1) And so I think early honest review, it's painful. It is absolutely painful and it's not the easy way to do it. But wait until the numbers force action is even more disruptive. And so I think that's where, you know, I've been at an institution where they did make a number of cuts, you know, over several years, and it wasn't a blip on any media story or anything, but the same number of programs closed over the course of one year. And boom, that's front page any city, any university. And whether it's all at once or gradual over time, I mean, the reality is it's interesting where, and one level, I get it because when you're a faculty member in a discipline, the connection of your livelihood, your work to that major is pretty vital. And anything that is going to disrupt that is then a view of, my gosh, I'm going to lose my job. And that's where we can definitely probably have a couple of episodes on this. I do have some thoughts around, know, there are some majors and I hate to say one and pick on them, but there's a number of majors that probably should not exist as a major. Does it mean we don't need that discipline or that kind of a Gary D Stocker (18:27.98) Yeah. Gary D Stocker (18:35.725) Hahaha Gary D Stocker (18:44.332) Yeah, interesting. Greg Pillar (18:45.112) Expertise? Not at all. There's other ways to incorporate those into majors, interdisciplinary majors, other types of skills and credential building that is important at a university. But it's tough to, you know, at the same time be like, yeah, you know what, we should cut my major, you know, the major I'm in. It doesn't make sense. Recognizing that that may impact whether I have a job. I will say I was in a unique position at my previous institution because I was part, I had a split appointment in a department of environmental science and chemistry. And although the chemistry major was doing okay, the environmental science major struggled over time. And when I moved into administration, my role didn't get completely backfilled. A couple of other departures. And then as an administrator, I was actively involved in the elimination of those programs. that were programs that I was a faculty member in and my tenure was tied to. And so that's probably an outlier compared to most other places. But at the end of the day, it was the right decision to eliminate that program because that university was not in a position to, it wasn't viable. Gary D Stocker (20:08.622) Yeah, yeah. And my own college viability majors completion app. We track dozens of majors across associate, bachelor's and master's. And in the 2026 version that I'm working on right now, it's going to be a couple hundred majors that we're going to track. And every time Matt Hendricks and I do the college financial health show every Tuesday at 1030 Central, there's a plug, I wrap it up by looking at low enrollment majors. And Greg, every single college out there has low enrollment majors and I could tell them. As a matter of fact, I will have a retail version for students and families later next year that says, hey, be careful going to this college that has five journalism majors. You want to look for one with 30 or 40 or 50 journalism majors. And that has the potential to change the market for that kind of stuff. Because yes, you can look at the data. And know me, I tease all the time. Let's go to the data. And it's there. It's there. And I can't change. Go ahead. I'm sorry. Greg Pillar (20:49.093) Yeah. Greg Pillar (21:02.874) Yeah. Well, I was just going to add, you know, in some cases it's not that the major itself is not a viable major to pursue. It just may not be a viable major at that institution. Gary D Stocker (21:15.758) Well, sure. And I remember earlier this year, Jeff Selengo had shared, this is going to be the year he predicted that colleges will realize that can no longer be everything to everybody. And when we're seeing that in public colleges in Indiana, Oklahoma, Ohio, Texas, and others where state legislators are saying, hey, it looks to be like about five majors, give or take, per year on average over a certain number of years, it varies by state. And if that's happening at Publix, Greg, Greg Pillar (21:24.772) Yeah, absolutely. Gary D Stocker (21:42.378) it's going to be having it private out of financial necessity. And I haven't even begin to ponder the impact if traditionally, increasingly, low enrollment majors go in large numbers. What happens next? I have no idea. I have no idea on that kind of stuff. I want to change the tone a little bit. Greg Pillar (21:56.506) Yeah. Gary D Stocker (22:03.094) If a college accepts a student, it doesn't matter what their acceptance rate is. They're in my mind making a promise of viability. We will be open for the four, six, eight, or 20 years, I'm being sarcastic, for the number of years required for you to graduate. In your mind, I'm asking again for an opinion here, do schools have a moral obligation to stop enrolling students when they're watching the last dollar circle, the financial drain? Greg Pillar (22:32.164) Yeah. And I think they do. I really do think they have that moral obligation. And, you know, you've I've heard you talk about this where, you know, the moment they say anything publicly or do anything publicly, it is then, you know, that's it. That's it. They've they've because who then is going to want to, you know, it's very difficult, if not impossible to recover. Gary D Stocker (22:52.642) Self-fulfilling, Gary D Stocker (23:00.814) Yeah. Greg Pillar (23:01.082) from that. So whether they come out publicly and say, hey, financially, we've got some challenges and, you know, this is where we're currently looking, unless we, you know, raise money or do something. Or if they, you know, quietly or directly just say, look, hey, we're not going to enroll. We're not going to admit students this year. That by itself, you know, speaks volumes. And so, but at the same time, Gary D Stocker (23:25.89) Yeah, I know. I know. Greg Pillar (23:31.108) Looking at a couple of schools that recently closed not too far from us here, like at my institution, we have a handful of students that were at Limestone that closed in South Carolina. And I heard of one story in particular of someone who had just started there. although I only heard part of it, could picture more about what they were going through. with regard to all that time and energy and money invested and start in their career there, their academic career, and now having to, after a semester, after a year, completely change course, that is highly disruptive and potentially, hopefully, the person will be able to navigate with minimum disruption to their progress and the cost and everything like that. you know, anytime anyone transfers, it's, you know, that's a separate problem that we have in this country with where the applicability of that transfer credit, credit may transfer, but it doesn't apply specifically to requirements. And that that's got to be addressed. But so the likelihood of it not having an impact is very slim. And so yeah, no, I do think that Gary D Stocker (24:41.272) Yeah. Gary D Stocker (24:53.4) Yeah. Greg Pillar (24:57.648) schools have an obligation to be honest. Gary D Stocker (25:00.558) Yeah, and even if they don't, and I understand the self-fulfilling prophecy. You heard me talk about that before, but even what I do and what others do, we're filling that moneyball gap. We will never say that a university will close, but we have data that says, Greg Pilar University is great, but Gary Stocker College, be careful about going there. The market's going to fill that need, whether the colleges themselves do or don't. And I understand, if you and I were college presidents, we would be very hesitant to say, hey, we're in trouble. Greg Pillar (25:04.014) Yeah. Yeah. Greg Pillar (25:21.572) Yeah. Gary D Stocker (25:28.952) But that's, and in my mind, that's my market opportunities to say, to provide students and families, faculty, staff, community, media, all that kind of stuff, that kind of guidance. Greg, do you have time for two more questions? So you used a term recently called tuition mirage. What the heck were you talking about? Greg Pillar (25:39.3) Absolutely. Greg Pillar (25:46.96) Well, is, you know, it's, well, I say it's well known. It's well known amongst those in higher ed, but, you know, maybe for your average family, it's not known, the prices that you see that, you know, schools have is not the actual price that a student pays. And it's, you know, if I'm graduating high school with three of my friends and all four of us decide to go to Gary Stocker University, each of the four of us are likely paying completely different tuition. Whether we get merit aid, need-based aid, athletic scholarship, whatever it may be. But it's one of these things where, know, I have long, although I'm a scientist and math is an area I have some skill in, finance and accounting and stuff like that. I, that's outside my, my, wheelhouse, but I've, I've always struggled with not just why, why, why this, you know, here's, here's the price, but you're going to actually pay this. We're going to publish the price. We are, going make it difficult to figure out truly what you're actually going to pay. And especially when what you're actually going to pay is going to be much less. And that may make it, you know, Gary D Stocker (27:01.101) Yeah. Greg Pillar (27:14.112) Recently, I saw a statistic that from a study where they said that 70 % of individuals immediately were turned off by a school because of the sticker price. And okay, wow, well, then why have that? the only, and I'm sure there's better answers than one ballot to give, but the only thing that I have heard from others in higher ed is that it... Gary D Stocker (27:25.496) All right, I've seen that. Greg Pillar (27:41.228) It helps that, you know, if it's expensive and it must be high quality. And that just, and if your sticker price is low, then it's the bargain basement or bargain warehouse. And although I've seen situations where that's the perception people have, I just find that highly problematic that we keep operating in this system where we do that. Gary D Stocker (27:45.262) All right. Gary D Stocker (28:10.318) And you're not going to be surprised, but I've had college presidents share with me that their families prefer the high cost, high discount model because of course they get to say, junior got a $30,000 scholarship to go to Greg Polar University for whatever reason. doesn't really matter what that is. So let's engage in. Greg Pillar (28:27.888) But sorry, I've heard the same. I've heard it from enrollment folks saying that, yep, nope. The fact that Suzy is getting 30,000 from us and the other school can only offer 28, even though it's going to be cheaper at the school with 28. Yeah. Gary D Stocker (28:51.598) So speculation, you and I have earned the right to speculate a little bit. And I was telling you before we started recording, there was a West Coast faculty member today who posted his premise that AI is becoming a better teacher than teachers. And that may or may not happen. This professor was a male, is certainly welcome to make his prognostication. From your perspective, step us through a scenario where that does happen in one year, two years, five years, 10 years in higher education. Greg Pillar (29:26.768) Yeah, think if I were to speculate whether or not that would happen, it depends upon, it's more likely to happen in scenarios where you have faculty that do not adapt, adjust, evolve their instruction, their teaching over time. That includes everything from the way the courses are designed to the pedagogy that they're employing. I think it's very easy for AI to replace those that have been teaching the same way, same type of, know, having made a change in 10, 15 years. And surprisingly, there's a month there like that where, I get good course evaluations, why would I change? Because that, you know, must be the marker of it. And those kinds of situations, I could absolutely see a scenario where eventually AI gets to the point where it, Gary D Stocker (30:05.368) Yeah. Greg Pillar (30:24.186) can do that. It can do the sort of Greg Pillar (30:33.21) transactional kind of teaching and learning experience, where it's going to be far more difficult and where I see the potential where it doesn't happen are those faculty. And there are many, many out there that continue to evolve in their teaching. They see AI not as, we've got to try to fight it at all costs, but okay, how do I now adjust to, you know, Gary D Stocker (30:47.202) Yeah. Greg Pillar (31:02.832) compensate for the fact that I can't assign the typical essay like I used to because there's a very good possibility that students are going to use AI or even, okay, I'm going to assign this essay, but I'm going to work with the students and how they could properly use AI to help with their writing. And the challenge there, just like with many of these other challenges is with making cuts. on a more frequent basis, program cuts or things like that, is it involves a bit of work and some pain to get through doing that. And I get it. Faculty, administrators, everyone in higher ed, there's burnout galore. And so it's tough to be like, OK, here's yet another area where I need to Gary D Stocker (31:45.048) Yeah, yeah. Greg Pillar (32:01.572) to really apply a lot of energy and effort to progress to get better. Gary D Stocker (32:02.434) Yeah. Gary D Stocker (32:08.854) So Greg Pilar has been my special guest on this episode of This Week in College Viability. And of course, Greg, famous for many things, but most famous for his Field Notes newsletter. And Greg, when does the next one come out? Greg Pillar (32:16.592) You Greg Pillar (32:21.424) I need to get on more of a consistent rotation where I can say, but my next one is, is like we do out here at the end of this week. If not beginning of next week. Gary D Stocker (32:32.302) I'll be watching my inbox for that. And Greg, thanks for making time to talk with us this afternoon. I appreciate it and we look forward to talking to you again soon. Greg Pillar (32:41.868) Absolute pleasure, Gary. Thanks again for having me. Love the work that you continue to do. It's tough work, good work, but appreciate the opportunity to have the conversation. Thank you. Gary D Stocker (32:52.974) Thank you,