Welcome to Flight Global Focus, our new weekly podcast.

My name is Dominic Perry, and I'm European Aerospace Editor.

Joining me for this Aerospace Focused episode is David Kaminsky Morrow, our Air Transport Editor.

Hello Dominic, pleasure to be here.

We are both back from Dubai and feeling a little bit worse to wear for long flights, but it was a Dubai air show this week so that was more exciting than usual.

David, how did you find it?

Oh, it was I'm not sure how you describe it.

It's it was it was busy and it was hot.

I think is the the simple summary.

But Dubai it's it's it's still it's still an air show.

I think we're big orders are expected and there's certainly plenty of of that during the week and probably more than there has been of late.

So there was there was no real shortage of big things to write about.

I don't know if you found the same but.

Yeah, I certainly thought it was hot, but that one was going to be without saying with Dubai.

But it did.

It did seem like a busy show, like you say, the the big mega orders were back, which maybe we were, we're missing for the for the past couple of editions of that show.

But it it felt like Emirates and Etihad and Fly to buy were all all wanting to spend again.

And yeah, we've almost come to expect it.

So when you're confronted with 150 aircraft orders, sometimes you think, oh right, just another one.

These days, it's become so commonplace.

I think you're right.

I think you you kind of almost get spoiled with the numbers a bit.

I mean, Once Upon a time, 20 aircraft or 30 aircraft was considered a big order.

And now nobody seems to be satisfied unless it's in triple figures.

I mean, we're looking at just the, there was an order for from Ethiopian Airlines for six A3 50s during the show.

And Once Upon a time that would have been quite a substantial deal.

But it's, it's almost, it's almost gone by the by because the Gulf carriers have done, done their magic trick of coming up with, with huge numbers and huge dollar figures again.

And it seems very much that that's that's really what Dubai likes to specialised in at the moment.

It does sometimes feel that everything else gets eclipsed just by the sheer weight of numbers from those golf carriers and and they can almost dominate the agenda, which it's their home turf and that's what the show's for.

So so I get it.

But what struck me as interesting though was the way the orders broke down.

You know, we had fly to buy potentially I suppose ordering A321 Neos and Emirates.

OK, it topped up with some more A359 hundreds, but there was no 1000 order.

And although it doubled down on it's 777X commitment, what was more interesting about that was the fact that it's, I don't know whether it's launched or is is trying to persuade Boeing to launch the Dash 10 version of that aircraft.

Well, yeah, I mean, that was that was really the probably the most interesting aspect of the Emirates announcement is.

I mean, it's it almost seems heresy to suggest that the 65777X's was almost a sideshow, but it kind of feels like that.

And that in that Sheikh Ahmed who, who was there at the press event, he almost dared Boeing to go away and stretch this aeroplane beyond the 7779.

You know, Emirates clearly wants a larger aircraft.

We know that because it was pushing Airbus to revamp the A380 for a long time and not really getting very far with that.

And then eventually, of course, Airbus canned the A380 programme and that's really left Emirates without an Ave to go down other than 777X and potentially the A 350-1000 if they can be satisfied by by the engine situation on, on the 1000, which of course at the moment they're not.

And it's always as if it's really a case of the, the high capacity into the market doesn't have enough options to satisfy Emirates.

So it's, it's pushing for a bit of daring, if you like from either Boeing or Airbus or maybe even both to satisfy it's it's need for some kind of large aeroplane expansion.

But I can't really see that either Boeing or Airbus is in the mood for that at the moment.

I think Boeing, they've both got big things on their plate at the moment.

Boeing is still trying to get 777X certified and that's just been pedestrian.

It's years behind schedule.

Airbus has got a 350 up and running, but it's got its own issues.

It wants to ramp up a 350 production, but that's it.

Depends on the whole Spirit Aero Systems deal going through and sorting out the problems there.

Airbus has got plenty of supply chain issues that it needs to get on with and likewise with Boeing.

I don't think either of them are in the mood really to be launching into a new aircraft programme, even if it's just just a stretch of their of their largest model, you know, and not certainly not wanting to do that just just for one customer, even if it's a really important customer like like Emirates.

I think it was you that was telling me that Stephanie Pope, who heads up Boeing's commercial aircraft business, almost looks surprised when the Emirates grandy said, oh, and we're going to study the Dash 10 and that this could be our new high capacity aircraft.

Does Airbus then respond with the stretch of the A-350 the the Dash 2000 that it keeps talking about?

That's the really key question in the whole thing is you almost feel as though both sides would like a non aggression pact.

But the question is, is what happens if one of them decides to be bold and and and go with with stretching the large model?

If Boeing says, all right, we are going to develop Dash 10, does that mean Airbus has to respond?

Does it really want to respond?

I doubt it, but it's really going to depend on, on whether there's a sufficient market for that aeroplane.

I, I don't think the Emirates on its own is going to be enough justification for developing the larger model.

And I think you kind of saw that from the reluctance of Airbus to do much with the A380.

Just on Emirates is wishes I think to put in the investment to adored what would still be a very, very expensive large aircraft.

I think it really needs a much more diverse market for that size aeroplane.

And then the A380 showed that markets for very large aircraft are not necessarily there yet.

You know, the the 777 is popular because of the size it is and the A-350 likewise.

And I don't see huge, huge demand for anything bigger at the moment.

It'll all change if if that changes, then it's a different ball game.

But I don't see any market for a for a much larger aeroplane at the moment.

It would also require for the stretch of the A-350 Rolls Royce to come back with an even more powerful version of the trend XWB.

And just to go back to your point that neither of the the two big airframers want to do another project because they've got so much on their plate at the moment.

The same is true of Rolls Royce they're they're dealing with all the durability issues on the Trent engine family that they're currently progressing with and I I don't think they have the capacity or appetite to do yet another project.

They, they want to fix the issues they've got, not least with the XWB 97, which in theory opens the door for for Emirates to finally commit to the A3501000, which I didn't really expect it at this show, simply because roles hasn't proven that technology yet.

It's it's got another two years of development in front of it.

So I thought it was always a long shot that Emirates would commit at this point.

But I think you pointed out as well that although it's taken some more 9 hundreds, it will be fairly easy to convert some of that backlog to one thousands if that's what it wants to do at a later stage.

I thought it was striking though that all the engine makers were talking about durability fixes.

Pratt and Whitney said.

They're getting on top finally of their issues on the the gear turbofan.

CFM have said the same about the Leap, GE, Rolls Royce.

They're all trying to to make their engines better, particularly for that really challenging Middle East environment.

I assume they will all get there, but it's been a trial for them all I think.

Yeah, I think you're absolutely right.

I mean, it's, it seems to have become a characteristic of of new engines that the the more the engines of advanced, the more the durability issue has come to the fore.

I remember 1 of head of the European airline was telling me fairly recently that he compared the all 2 to old, old fashioned washing machines which were very robust and just went on for years and years and years.

But a modern washing machine constantly needs to have its parts replaced and doesn't seem to be as as reliable.

And he said it's and it's very much the same for the engines on his aircraft that they don't they don't stay on the wing anywhere near as long and it's a consequence of of technological advancement.

Bizarrely, is.

There anything else that caught your eye at the show and if what for you was the the, the standout aircraft or the standout announcement?

I mean, for me, the one of the most interesting things was seeing the SU-57 flying.

As morally questionable as that may be, it's always intriguing to see a new bit of kit arriving at a show.

So that was quite cool.

Just seeing the the joby, whatever it's called, the veto flying.

That was also interesting.

Very, very quiet.

You could walk along the flight line while that was performing and all you would hear was the ground power units from everything that was parked.

Yeah, I think, I think you're right that I mean, the, you mentioned this, the Sukhoi 57, which which I mean that did put on an extraordinary display.

I mean, I remember when the Russians first brought some of their combat aircraft to Farnborough and it was a really, really big draw because we hadn't really seen anything like that Western air shows before.

And there was, there was kind of that kind of feel watching the 57 fly and, and it does these quite extraordinary aerobatics, which for a big aeroplane is quite hypnotic to watch.

And I think you're right at the other at the other end of the spectrum, you had this these up and coming EV tolls and you know, they are small and agile and incredibly quiet and the very, very futuristic and that market, I know you've covered that market in considerable depth over the past sort of couple of years.

And it does seem to be a sector that is still finding its way in some, some respects.

But in others, you're starting to see some of the more promising projects really emerging, you know, things like vertical aerospace in the VX4 and and projects along those lines.

What?

Amused me or, or what I thought was noteworthy maybe was that whereas other air shows sustainability seems to be the number one topic or certainly the the number one topic that the air show organisers would like you to be talking about.

There doesn't seem to be very much of that Dubai.

I don't know whether that's a a factor of the Dubai show or whether it's just where the industry is at the moment, but they didn't seem to be the usual barrage of announcements about SAF, about hydrogen, this, that and the other.

It was just we're buying more aircraft.

I used to be quite cynical about the whole sustainability thing because every airline was interested in cutting fuel burn and therefore sustainability reducing carbon emissions came as a kind of a free bit of bonus PR on top of that because it was a natural consequence of reducing your your fuel burn.

But in recent years, sustainability has become a driver in its own right.

And there's so much interest now in in doing that.

There's a lot of promotional interests, a lot of PR interest, some of it, I think it's still very self-serving, but I do think there is this underlying genuine interest in exploring sort of alternative energies.

I think it's kind of moving in the right direction.

It's, I mean, it still needs a lot of pushing and this a lot of effort has to be put in to try and make it work.

And some of the projections on where we're going to become 2050 are probably a little exaggerated, but I think the movement towards sustainability has become so large that it generates things like new technologies, new innovations and all those things play a part in the future of aerospace.

They generate new ideas and new concepts.

And it's, it's good for the industry in general.

Well.

On that note, I guess we can probably wrap things up there.

So thank you very much for joining me, David.

It's been a pleasure, as always.

Pleasure to meet you, Dominic.

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