Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings.

The Crown is yours.

I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by one of my two faves, the Prime Minister Stucky, along for the ride.

Kendra is still somewhere gallivanting around Europe.

We did get a voice message that has since disappeared, but we wish her well.

We'll chat with her on Sunday for the Week eight recap.

Another week in the NFL is upon us.

On today's episode, we're gonna submit our official plays for the week.

We've got our stat of the week as well our two Kings and a Queen parlay.

Some more public darlings that are out there that you need to be aware of, a couple of which I actually quite like this week.

Like and subscribe wherever it is you are tuned in.

Gambling scandals of plenty in the NBA, Stucky, I'm glad that that's not anything we have to deal with over here.

I'm a little surprised that that's not something you hear about in in the NFL.

It's like we haven't really dealt with that much.

It's been very much an NBA driven thing.

Terry Rose, You're arrested by the way, if you haven't seen the news.

Yeah, I mean it's a lot harder to do in the NFL.

I mean there's only seventeen games, the only one.

You know, you don't have the ball enough unless you're like a quarterback.

Quarterbacks make so much money, Like what are you going to just start throwing incomplete passes?

Like if you're a basketball player, you feel like you can you can, like if it's like prop driven, you can like impact the prole or you can like impact the game.

Like even going back to some of the college scandals, like you could go you could impact the game.

It's a point guard to make sure that you don't cover, but you still win.

As like a quarterback in the NFL, Like what are you gonna do?

Like you just throw away called possessions, like you're gonna lose.

So yeah, there's there's It's just it's a whole different ballgame.

It'd be so much harder to do in the NFL.

In football, the only time it's happened before, like the college ranks with quarterbacks, it's much easier to do in basketball.

It doesn't really surprise me.

A lot of people are going to point to legalization as a reason for this.

I actually have a different take, and it's that part of the reason we're catching some of this stuff.

Now, you could say, like the prevalence of props and all that stuff, maybe it is more widespread, But this stuff's been going on forever and it would never get caught, and I think it's now more likely to get caught.

So I think it's actually a good thing that these things actually come to the forefront.

So yeah, but not something we have to worry about.

With the NFL a somewhat similar take on this, and I think it makes me feel better as somebody that in the NFL, in the NBA, in college, I tend to lean more towards sides, and I think it is when you had gambling scandals in the past, it would be about game fixing.

Now what you're seeing the scandals are all built around props, and I think if you're gonna be careful anywhere, if you live in fear of any sort of fix, that's where the fixing takes place now.

I mean, and the NBA has been more of an issue than the NFL, but it's just so hard to fix a game.

Yeah, And I wouldn't live here of props like it's it's not like it's completely widespread.

You know, these are one off things, so and then over like if you happen to be on the wrong end of one, like I mean, you would never know, but the chances are they would you would just wash out over time.

You might be on the wrong side one or two and the right side of the other.

I wouldn't be afraid of betting props because of that.

And remember, you can only fix an under, Okay, you can't.

You can't fix your way to thirty five points in the NBA, So just keep that in mind.

Don't be scared to bet an under as well.

Well's talk some NFL bye weeks like crazy.

This week six teams on buy.

Is your NFL betting card any lighter because of it?

I've noticed that I've been.

It's still have a lot out there, but it's it's like less than it usually is with six teams not available.

I don't know, I mean I think this week, yeah, it is.

It really depends on the week, just depends on what I like.

This week.

I think I only have let me pull it up.

I only have I haven't even bet anything yet, so as zero bets.

I just I'm I know that I'm gonna bet like the Texans, I'm trying to figure out where that number is gonna go, Like with the Nico Collins news, like does it come back a little bit?

I'm gonna bet well.

I do have the Ravens already.

I have them some money line to close out some parlays, but I'm gonna bet them again.

It just depends on like is it gonna be with Lamar or is it gonna be when the line comes down with their backup.

I am gonna bet the Jets.

I'm trying to determine if that's gonna go to seven or not.

I'm good about the Saints.

Probably just bet that at four and a half, and I'm probably gonna bet the Commanders.

That's about it.

There's a lot of injuries this week too, on top of the buye, so that's probably why my volume is down a bit.

But right now I'm just number watching, like around key numbers and trying to figure out with some of these injury news, where is the market going to go, and trying to time it right.

We saw that Saints number bounce around a little bit too, so keep an eye on that.

I've seen that.

I've seen three and a half's out there, four and a half on draft Kings right now.

So definitely shop around if you are, depending on what side you're on as far as that goes, Okay, we got a lot more to get to, but we cannot dive into a Thursday episode without your bizarre, weird random question of the week.

Hey, this is a dumb question.

Let me ask you a personal question kind of question is that is question?

In honor of Halloween coming up?

What is the most scared you've ever been in your life?

Like I was, I was robbed at gun pointing pistol whip once when I was sixteen.

The top I wasn't that scared.

I wasn't that scared.

I think it was like adrenaline and like it was just in the moment scared.

I really wasn't.

It was crazy, like it was scary, but like my I wasn't like completely petrified.

I went into like you know, survival mode.

It was.

It was crazy.

I can't really explain it, but I think the most scared ever was I think I told the story on another podcast before.

When I was sixteen, my parents were divorced.

My mom, my brother, and sister went down to the beach in the summer, and I said, I'm going to stay at my dad's, but I just stayed at my mom's and then I just threw the parties, like just big parties all weekend and they got like completely out of hand.

So it was Sunday night and I was just I stayed by myself.

My girlfriend the time came over.

I think we like watched a movie and she left, and then I was sitting in my family room and I swore that someone was out behind my deck behind just out there, and I'm a night out.

I've been a night on my whole life.

This is like two and two, two thirty in the morning, and I swore I kept seeing someone, and I'm like, I'm doing my mind just playing tricks on me.

I just kept telling myself that.

So then it was like three thirty in the morning and I was like, all right, I'm gonna go off to bed, and I was still freaked out enough where like I put the lights on like in front of me.

I just remember being freaked out, turned my light off above my bed, lay down, and within ninety seconds my house alarm goes whoo I said, Oh my god.

So I was already freaked out, and the house alarm went off.

I ran to the stairs, top of the stairs, and I was like trying to see if I could hear anything, but the alarm was so loud.

I sprinted down my stairs, out my front door, straight to my neighbor's house.

It was my good friends who were my age, were like sixteen seventeen, and their dad has like hundreds and hundred He's like a huge gun collection.

I was banging on the door.

They came, answered, he got a gun, came out.

No one was there.

We went back around the basement.

The back basement window was broken, so someone was watching me, and I think it was just someone who someone like older, sketchy person who came to the party and then was like, oh, this kid's parents aren't home, so I think they'd planned to rob me the next night.

So then that night I slept at my neighbor's house and I just watched over the house because I'm not even supposed to be at the house, and I'm like, oh my god, if I just if the house gets robbed and I'm not even there.

So I just sat and stared at the house for hours until daylight and then I went to sleep.

We got the window fixed, and no one ever knew until I told my parents, Like, I don't know, three four years later.

They never found out.

The alarm company never came nothing.

I don't This is like twenty twenty five years ago, so I don't know how the alarms worked.

It was like not connected to a if it was just like a.

Noise emergency contact.

It doesn't sounds like they weren't quite buttoned up yet.

No, but they never found out.

My mom said she knew that I had I had parties because obviously, like you try to fix everything, yeah you can't, so but she never knew about the house.

And I felt so guilty for weeks because I was like, I should tell her because I'm like, what if they come back, right, I'm not saying anything, But I lied about the entire weekend.

So yeah, that was the most scout I've ever been because I was at Zebra having before.

We were so freaked out and you think something's going on, but you can mention yourself, mine's just playing tricks on you.

And then actually no, someone was watching you out back, which is freaky enough, but and to have the alarm go off, and that was that was crazy?

How about you?

So your questions are always mind benders to me because I'll think of a better answer, like two days from now.

I think I've done that with every question you've asked, But the first one that comes to mind for me.

I'm driving up to Orlando.

I had just moved up here and I went back down to get some stuff from my parents in South Florida.

I'm on the Turnpike going north and all of a sudden, I'm driving a car that it was my first car, like everybody else, was a shitty car that would top out at sixty miles per hour.

This thing.

All of a sudden, I look at this sphenometer on the highway.

It goes up to ninety and I'm thinking something is wrong.

And all of a sudden, I see a tire with an axle attached to it that is flying in front of my car, and I'm like, that's gotta be me, and my car starts wabbling.

This all happens in slow mo, but it probably took like five seconds wobbling in a busy highway, and I thought for sure this was the end.

I was just going to crash into the side of the of the highway and hit a car.

Mike's car stops dead in its tracks and cars start whizzing by me.

I didn't get hurt, but I had three tires and I had to get towed.

Wow, that's an irrational fear of mine.

Is a tire coming off like an eighteen it happens.

Yeah, Yeah, it was very If you've ever seen Final Destination the movie, it kind of felt it felt very much like that, especially with the axle attached too.

Not only was I scared for myself, but that could have killed somebody.

Yep, all right, trimply unbelievable stat of the leak.

Let's get to it.

Courtesy of the Primer, A weekly guide into all the action from our director of research, who you will hear from in a moment, Evan Abrams.

Through seven weeks, the NFC is twenty six and twelve against the spread, and it's thirty eight games against the AFC.

This season, the NFC is five hundred, sitting at five hundred ats or better in all seven weeks of the year.

Excuse me, this season a one hundred dollars better, taking every NFC team against the AFC would be up one thousand, one hundred and eighty eight dollars.

That's an ROI of thirty one point three percent.

The NFC that much better than the AFC right now.

The numbers back it up, and it does feel like that's the case.

With everything that's going on injury wise, with these quarterbacks in the AFC.

The Bills have been a little bit shaky lately, it feels like the NFC is a superior conference at the moment.

Yeah, I think there's probably there's a lot of I mean, it's a sample size of thirty eight games, but I do think the NFC is better.

That makes me a little nervous, but maybe it's due to come back.

But you'd have the Vikings this week, the Bears, who else the Panthers, the and the Cowboys and the Packers are the NFC teams to take on AFC.

I do think the NFC is clearly better top to bottom than the af SEE right now, especially when you factor in all the injuries.

But I would imagine that probably evens out over the course of the year.

But yeah, the AFC feels like what the NFC was a few years ago.

Evan, you were the one that put that stat together.

Is that news or noise?

It's noise.

I think it has a lot to do with injuries, especially injuries at the top of the AFC, like the Baltimore is the Buffalo losing to in a row, Like the best teams with the best quarterbacks that we say always go to the Super Bowl except for you know, the Eagle stuff.

They're all hurt, and I think that has a big impact on this.

I also think the NFC teams at the top are just more complete this year, like better defenses, like like pretty good offenses.

I just think as a whole they're playing well.

I'd have to look deeper to see if there's any other reasons why, But at the moment, I think there's eight matchups this week, so you know, I wouldn't be shocked if this is the week it reversed or at least you saw like an even four and four split.

But interesting nonetheless, another one that I saw that I absolutely love and it does point in a different direction from where I'm headed with one game this weekend.

But stats are stats.

I can't change them.

Since twenty eighteen, teams who are on a four plus game winning streak against the spread and straight up who didn't make the playoffs the year prior are fourteen twenty six and one ats.

That includes two teams, the Patriots and the Bears.

I am not betting the Pats this week.

I do have a bet on Chicago at plus six and a half.

That was one of my favorite plays early in the week, just trying to get ahead of some potential Lamar news of him not playing looks like he's going to but even still, I like some value on I see some value in Chicago.

Head to head for there is Yeah, what do we got go?

I'll still sit with it.

I'm good with six and a half, honestly, Like I can't even get there with Lamar.

You gotta send me crab cakes, frozen crab cakes when the Ravens went by seven plus.

Oh, I'll take that.

On the other side, I love crab cakes.

Okay, all right it scrap cake be Are we both from Baltimore?

By the way, I'm I'm not.

I'm from I'm from like I'm from outside of Philly, between Philly and Baltimore, but uh no, I'm not from Baltimore.

I had season tickets for thirteen years, but I uh no, I'm not from Baltimore.

But unfortunately I was born there in eighty five and I left before the Those are my choice.

I was a kid, but I left before the Ravens came around and became a Dolphins fan as the Ravens were coming into existence.

So I have love for the Ravens.

I am an Orioles fan, but Scott stuck with the shitty Dolphins.

But as far as that, as far as.

They go on getting back to the NC I see thing real quick.

Yeah, should you look in the market right now, just market power ratings for the top six teams in the market are in the NF have the Lions Packers.

This is just current right now, so it also accounts for injuries.

Lions Packers, Rams and Eagles, Bills and Ravens aren't too far behind now that they're getting healthier, but they're still TVD on Lamar Jackson's status.

But that for the top six in the NFC, it has not been like that for a while.

I mean for the past couple of years it's Chiefs, Ravens and Bills at the top and clearly at the top.

So yeah, the top of the NFC is definitely rising.

So we're going head to head on Ravens Bears.

I will obviously feel better about this if there's some late news that Lamar isn't gonna play, or if we see Lamar play but his hamstring is still giving him issues.

All of those things are factors here, and I think the Bears are legitimately good this year, so even just getting them at plus six plus six and a half, I'm good with.

I understand that this is very this this is the ultimate get right spot of all the teams this week.

You're talking about a Super Bowl contender who right now is battling for a top pick in the NFL Draft, getting star players back, and none bigger than a guy that's worth about seven points to the spread.

Totally get that.

I'm betting against some major get right action here, but I'm good with that.

As far as the other game that this applies in terms of the teams that are four to oh ats over the last four weeks that didn't make the playoffs last year, the Patriots are the other one.

They're favored by seven against the Browns.

I have no action on this game.

I'm not sure where you stand on this.

This is a really interesting one.

The Browns haven't won a game away from home yet, no surprise, they're bad.

The Patriots are tied with the Broncos and Bears with a four game winning streak.

That's the longest current streak in the NFL.

Drake May is the third most sacked quarterback in the NFL.

That's a bad matchup going against the Browns defense that can get after the passer.

Are we overvaluing the Browns though, because here we go.

Power ratings probably have this closer to six, and you're paying attacks on how good New England has been.

But are we overvaluing Cleveland based on a blowout win against the sinking ship in Miami?

Conklin also back on the offensive line, This is a really interesting read.

Probably a stay away from me.

Yeah, I mean I make it right around seven, So nothing to do here.

I mean, I want to see Drake Mays look fantastic, but he hasn't really faced any good defenses.

So I mean, if you look at the schedule of defenses they faced, this will be a good test.

But the Browns defense isn't the same animal away from home.

It's additional.

It's just not a great matchup for the Browns, which is why I can't get there or can't look their way.

The Browns want to run the ball, obviously with Jyllan Gabriel, and they're receiving mm.

It's not a great passing offense, but the Pats run defense is very good.

You got to throw to move the ball on them.

That's not the Browns strong suit.

So yeah, and then in order to both of these defenses are susceptible to explosive passes.

Well, guess what, Drake May's been one of the best deep ball throwers, and they do have an explosive passing offense, and the Browns certainly do not.

So I do not think it's a good matchup for Cleveland, but I am interested.

I'm close to market, and I am interested to see Drake May go up against a much better defense on paper than what he's seen for the most part so far this season.

But you can't argue with his numbers, even adjusting for opponent, he's been one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Still to come to Kings and a Queen the parlay gets nominated this week, But first a word from our first Lady as she chats about DraftKings.

The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins and three months of NBA League Pass to get started.

Use promo Code of Favorites when signing up with DraftKings.

Again, he used Code Favorites when signing up and bet five bucks to get three hundred back and bonus bets if your bet wins plus three months of NBA League.

So the crown is yours.

Kendrew's not here to waffle on a pick for her weekly pickle, So I will ask you, among all the games on the board this week, what has been the toughest for you to convince yourself in either direction to get any sort of action on.

I mean, if I have to convince myself, I'm staying away.

That's how it always is.

So like Patriots, I just explained my thinking with Patriots Browns, that's a stay away.

Let me let me ask this in a different way where you have been convinced in your mind on a side and then have also convinced yourself on the other side.

So not one that you look at and say I have no read on this one where you've had to read and then that read has shifted.

I think that's that's the bigger pickle for any better is thinking that they have a good read on a game and then starting to look at it in a completely opposite direction.

I mean Cowboys Broncos.

I can see the case for both sides.

I mean eating bo Nicks to win by margin not great, but the Cowboys offense and look, the Cowboys offense has been incredible.

Can Denver actually keep up?

Then again, look at some of Dallas's results on the road to get blown out at Chicago, lose that Carolina, This defense is still really bad.

So I could see both sides of the coin there.

Titans Colts was an easy pass for me, like the Indies should score at Will.

I did like some of the things Tennessee did with simplifying their offense last week.

But Jeffrey Simmons Sneid probably going to be out.

I don't know how they get stops, but I laying I don't want to lay fourteen and a half in the NFL.

Like the Colts could be up twenty one, that's a complete blowout in the NFL, and Tennessee could score a garbage some touchdown and cover like there's it's not college football, there's no incentive to blow teams out, and so like, I don't think I would.

I don't think I've ever laid over two touchdowns in the NFL.

So that was an easy, easy crossout out.

What about team total over that was one that I was looking at if you want to bet the.

Game script dependent though, like because Tennessee can't score and then like it's what's what's their team total?

Thirty and a half?

Yeah, so like if it's like twenty eight three and then it just dies and or like there's a couple of fields.

I don't know.

Team totals aren't my specialty.

I mean I would think that Indian doors against that defense without I mean, with thatou Jeffrey Simmons, you can do whatever you want.

That's snead.

They traded brownly.

That defense is a shell you and Tennessee actually and does go fast.

They use tempo, so that helps your case as well.

But no, I would only look over in that case.

Dolphins Falcons is a like I'm not betting the Dolphins, but I'm not probably not laying seven and a half of the Atlanta and Bill's Panthers is one where I think it's completely dependent on what the Bills op to do out of the buy.

Do they come out and say we're gonna throw And if they do and just let Josh Allen cook, then I think they're gonna move the ball.

It will and I think they're gonna cover, and I think the game probably goes over.

But if they try to run it, Carolina is at a top three run defense this year.

The run defense has been tremendous, so if they try to run it, then all of a sudden, Carolina is getting stops.

Carolina can keep running it.

The Bill's run defense has been bad, the Carolina run offense has been good.

They can keep running it, keep the ball away from Allen, stay in the game.

But if Bills come out and throw it, get a lead for Sandy Dalton to have to throw, That's where I think Carolina get in trouble.

So I think it really comes down to the Bills approach and how they call plays in this game and their run pass split.

Because they've been very run heavy.

I think this is a game where you want to be very pass heavy.

Do I trust them or know either way I don't, so that's an easy pass.

Oh yeah, we are.

We're in lockstep with some of these games that are giving us fits.

Cowboys Broncos.

Has me I've gone early in the week, I was convinced I was going to bet the Broncos.

I've gone completely in the other direction, and then I end up going I don't want to go against how strongly I felt earlier in the week.

Think about some of the factors here, how this points in both directions.

The Broncos are unbeaten at home, but they're also one in two ats at home, so they're winning.

But they're a little overvalued.

I think people perhaps overvaluing that home field advantage.

We viewed Denver as one of the top home field advantages in the NFL, but perhaps that's getting baked in a little bit too much.

You also had Denver with this epic comeback last week.

Evan pointed this out in the article Teams that make the sort of comeback that the Broncos made last week against the Giants cover at a rate of forty three percent next the very next week over the last ten years.

No surprise there, because it's so unlikely to do that, and it probably means that you're not really that good in the first place.

So that leads you the way of the Cowboys.

The public has been getting absolutely crushed this year.

Eighty three percent of the bets, ninety two percent of the money on the Cowboys.

Only San Francisco is receiving more action this week.

That points me in the direction of the Broncos is fading the public.

Also, if you want to throw another one, no, but they do last week they were like ten and oh, so you never know.

I don't want to base too much off that.

I would say that that.

Has been my most tried and true method this year, is getting back to the well on fade public sentiment.

Yeah, I mean that that abs and foods.

I mean you look, books can do that because they have they're getting well, they're getting plus one ten.

You have to have minus one then, and you got to you gotta do it on every single bet.

So I mean with the Cowboys, yeah, I mean, look, the Broncos of one, like you mentioned the comeback, the Broncs had that crazy comeback as the Eagles lay an egg the next week against the Jets.

I mean their wins this year have come by four two one.

They lost by one, They lost by three.

They only beat the Titans by eight.

You know, their one blaw win came over the Bengals with Jake Browning basically just vomiting on himself.

Like, this is a team that's just gonna play close games, like not really cable of building margin.

And the Cowboys can keep up with pretty much anybody, and the certain haven't certained he isn't as valuable against a team like the Cowboys because they have two stug receivers.

Right, a lot of times he's eliminating one of them.

But yeah, I could I could see that going either way.

But if I had to at three and a half, it'd be Dallas or nothing.

The other game, yeah, the last one is Eagles Giants.

I kind of like the Eagles, but I hate laying seven and a half with them, So everything's number depended as seven.

I like the Eagles, but even at I don't like laying seven with Eagles.

Like, this is a team that get their offense goes into just long lulls.

Once they have a lead, they kind of sit on it.

This is not a team that you really want to light points with, but it's a really good spot.

The Giants also have some potential injuries on defense that I'm monitoring, but and that's really what cost in the game against Denver.

They lost two guys in the secondary and Denver ended up coming back.

But the Eagles, they just played the Giants a couple of weeks ago.

The Giants have been dominating in first quarters.

They've been the second best team in the first quarter EPA wise since Dart took over.

Only team better is the Chiefs.

And what is that?

So like their script and everything early with this unique Dart offense has been very good and that enables them to play how they need to keep playing because they have a lead.

The problem is they just played the Eagles two weeks ago.

The Eagles kind of know what this Giants offense look looks like, so and it's a tough spot for the Giants.

How do they bounce back from that meltdown?

I don't know.

But if the Eagles are prepared and they get ahead of the Giants, I don't think the Giants are built to come from behind.

The Giants run defense is really bad.

I think, you know, the Eagles might have found something on offense last week, going under center more actually throwing it downfield.

So yeah, you know the Eagles, this is good.

They're gonna be They're gonna be ready for this game because the Giants basically embarrassed them on national TV.

We're talking all kinds of shit.

So I think it's a really good spot for the Eagles.

But it's not a team I love needing to win by a ten plus, so that one is has been a little bit of a pickle as well.

I think it's important to talk this stuff through because this is what every better goes through, is these sort of back and forth.

There's a lot of games that are on the card.

We have our picks with full conviction coming up in a moment, Evan, before we move off of the waffling the pickling, is there one that you're looking at or a couple where you say, I just don't even know what to do with that.

I'll just say this off the bat.

Eight games on the card this week of thirteen games with the spread of six or more, which is just unbelievable this time of year.

Has to do with injuries a lot of different factors.

But if you look at like seven of those eight teams that are those big of a favorites, there is like something inherently odd and not something we're used to about those teams, which is why I think it's difficult to lay points.

So one by one quickly, it's Flacco and Cincinnati.

It's the Ravens getting back all of their roster, something we haven't seen.

It's like Pennix in Atlanta.

I don't know if you can do that.

Philly doesn't cover in any situation really easily.

New England's really new at this Daniel Jones is laying fourteen points, like each situation is something that I don't think anyone is like comfortable with.

I mean, I think numbers tell you to do one thing, but there's also a gut feeling about a bet.

In what you've seen, and all of those favorites make me nervous.

So yeah, I'm on the flip side.

It's like, oh, but then you got a bet the Titans.

Oh then you got a bet Gaber on the road, right.

So very difficult spread week, yeah, right, or the difficult spread week, or the.

Or the disaster that is the Miami Dolphins.

And you know the thing is, I want to make sure that I lay You're in the right context with that, because they bottomed out against the Browns.

The Dolphins have been competitive, and if you listen to the narrative from the talking heads this week, it is as if this team has quit on Mike McDaniel for a month.

That's not true.

It's been one bad week and it was one bad week in weather, and Tua has never played well in those situations.

So I do think that if you're if you're just taking the number and talking about that game specifically, the Dolphins are probably the right side.

I do have the Falcons teas down to one, so I'm gonna I'm gonna off of that.

Let's talk luck for a moment.

Nick Giffen does phenomenal work with his weekly luck rankings, and we've got some deltas that are out there.

Jets at Bengals A grade on the New York Jets.

Giants at Eagles A grade on the New York Giants, even though they beat the Eagles pretty soundly just a couple of weeks ago.

I was surprised, not surprised in the first one.

The Bengals obviously feel like they have a rabbit's foot and the Jets have the opposite.

But the Giants an unlucky team.

I know last week they lost to Denver in sort of a weird way, but the.

Unluckiest loss of the year besides Tennessee.

And they also were unlucky against the Cowboys.

But they've been playing great usually.

What I'm saying, they put all that's looking at is how many wins you should have versus how many wins you do, so like the Eagles should have.

I mean, Eagles deserve to lose by like a touchdown.

Last week against Minnesota, they were out success rate by like twelve percent.

They had to pick.

The Vikings had one touchdown in six red zone trips.

Uh you know there was a drop touchdown, a tall touch up.

Everything went wrong.

The Eagles did face all their damage on like fourth down bombs, so that should have been a loss.

The Rams game obviously should have been a loss.

They went on a blocked fuel goal after they were down by twenty.

So yeah, the Eagles should have like a couple of fewer losses and like easily could have two fewer losses.

And you sound like somebody that's lost money betting on the Eagles.

Mon I did.

I lost the Rams and the Vikings game, which were graded like clear winners.

Which you can hear that, you can hear the salt in the vinegar, but what are.

You gonna do?

Also, I had the Giants against the Cowboys to close out a round robin.

I just needed them to win and then they somehow outed down on the loss in overtime.

No joy.

But uh yeah, so that's all that's looking at.

So that doesn't surprise me.

Like the Giants have been on I mean, last week they had like a ninety win probably only one point, stunning that the Broncos sixty to one live on the money line at one point.

So yeah, the Eagles definitely have been lucky.

Their schedules tough.

It's they're gonna get their medicine.

I'm just not sure it's this week with the Giants because I think I just think it's a tough spot and the Eagles will be ready here and I don't think it's a great matchup for the Giants unless they jump ahead.

But I'm not sure that they're gonna be able to hear with their script after just playing the Eagles a couple of weeks ago.

So the Jets would be the one of those two that I like.

And I believe we're going to talk about that within our parlay discussion.

Here's one last interesting one.

Nick Giffan also does work on luck totals.

I full disclosure, I do bet NBA and Major League Baseball totals quite frequently.

I could be the world's worst NFL totals better.

I just I just don't view the league that way.

I don't.

I don't have a lens for it.

But Broncos Cowboys under fifty and a half is that has to be If we were ranking contrarian plays across the board this week, that would be in the top three because those two teams can score.

So I'm and I'm thinking and betting any any under where the Cowboys are involved.

But that is a luck under right there?

Would you be willing to place a bet on that stucky?

Maybe a fifty one or better?

Which is a key in the NFL?

I mean, did the Broncos defense is very good?

The Cowboys offense isn't the same away from home and bow Knicks is bon NICKX like that bo Knicks will bonicks the offense into oblivion for like multiple quarters.

The had zero points against the Giants for three quarters and then they had to go into comeback mode against pre de defense with multiple second or injuries.

So you think that this but that this is a Broncos scene that just scored thirteen points against the Jets.

They scored you know, they they were getting shut out against the Eagles for three quarters.

They were going to shut out against the Giants for three quarters.

So yeah, there's a pat like to get over fifty one.

You need, you need a lot.

You can't have a lot go wrong.

You need you can't be set on for field goals, have red zone turnovers, and can tailspin a offense for a couple of quarters.

And to Broncos defense is very talented and so I can see the path at fifty one or better, but obviously won't be enjoyable betting a Cowboys under I can see it.

Four o'clock window, Cowboys under not things.

It's time for the reason you all came here today.

Two Kings and a Queen Parlay.

We took another team l last week, but all we can do is get back on the horse.

Here are two Kings and a Queen parlay, presented by draft Kings of the Crown is yours.

We'll start with the person who isn't here.

Kendra has submitted her plays.

I thought for sure we were gonna get some sort of a anytime touchdown from a tight end.

It is tight ends Day on Sunday, by the way, the fourth Sunday.

Here, Scott Hansen say that fifty million times.

Is your buddy raybaon on any of the tight end props this week for the cash The tight end stuff went well, it went so wild last year.

I was talking with David Payton, our producer, before we popped on today.

It's bound to just tilt in the other direction because people are gonna go wild on Sunday for these touchdown tight end props.

At least Kelsey's not playing on National tight Ends Stack because that's when Scott Anson.

Really yeah right, Well, she doesn't have one of those Jets.

Giants are her too, so she is going East Rutherford action here.

Giants plus seven and a half against the Eagles, Jets plus six and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals.

I was going to tee up the Jets.

Once I saw that on our little Google doc, I decided to take it off so my voute would be on the Jets here.

This Bengals team is not real and if you look at every single direction of how to bet a game in the NFL, it would point you in the way of the New York Jets.

Aaron Glenn hasn't committed to a quarterback yet.

I think at this point we all hope it's to Rod Taylor.

Under Zach Taylor.

The Bengals are two and six ATS when playing at home off of a night game, two and five ATS with extra time to prepare.

In a non borrow quarterbacked game, They're at home one in prime time black all looks amazing.

I'm not buying any of it.

And the Jets, I mean you talk about do I mean this team is overdue for a win, so perhaps even a sprinkle on the money line.

But I love the Jets this week.

That's my favorite bets, so that would be my vote.

I do like the Giants.

I just I'm afraid to buy high on the Aura, as Kendro would put it, of Jackson Dart and Cam Skataboo.

It just feels like it almost feels like the they're like.

The cute new team.

I just I'm not fully buying it yet.

The Eagles, as much as they are a slog to watch, it's still they're still a superpower in the NFL.

So that one I'm a little bit slower to get to the window on.

But I love the Jets.

No Giants.

We're going with the Jets.

Hopefully Garret Wilson maybe plays.

I don't know there's a buye, but I mean, do the Jets really care about it?

Buye?

I don't know.

Sauce Corners in a covert protocol, but Michael Carter's back in the secondary.

You got a couple other guys and that's going to be one of the big questions against their receivers.

But this is a Jets team.

You mentioned, They've been extremely unlucky.

I mean they have covered a bunch of games, Like in this price range they covered.

They were like plus seven at Tampa and covered, had a chance to win.

They covered.

They were this around this price on a neutral against the Broncos a couple of weeks back.

So like now we're the Bengals are laying six and a half because Joe Flacco had his one explosion game.

This is still one of the worst.

The Bengals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

They have been able to run the ball all year.

The Jets defense is top seven in rush and pass success rate.

The Bengals are bottom five in both.

Like, the Jets should be able to run the ball year even with that is no Garret Wilson, I'm assuming it's tyrot or Trod, my guy.

I call him ty God.

He's thirty four to twenty one and four against the spread in his career.

Covers will call whatever he wants, just to call.

Him sixty two sixty five percent against the spread.

As a dog, he's nine three and one against his privan catching six or more.

The Jets of a minus nine turnover differential.

They forced one turnover all year.

They're so overdue for turnovers.

Flacco will give you the ball.

So yeah, and the Blengals don't blitz.

They don't bring pressure if that's really what's killed all the all the Jets quarterbacks.

But I think actually Tad is better than than fields right now.

So there are some concerning injuries for the Jets.

The Bengals have some extra rest, but like, this team should not be laying six and a half here.

So yeah, we're going with the New York Football Jets.

What about you.

I'm gonna my two choices are the Ravens, but I know you're not going to pick that, so we're gonna and I don't blame you with the Lamar uncertainty, so we're gonna go with the Commanders plus twelve and a half.

Like this is assuming, Like I don't think that the drop off between Daniels and Mariota is this big right now.

Like Daniels is not playing well this year, there's been no chemistry with the offense.

We've seen Mariota come in and be very competent run this offense the Chiefs are doing with offensive line injuries.

It looks like McLaurin and Deebo are going to be back.

You should get a focused effort here from the Commanders after they got blown out against Dallas.

Everyone is so high in the cheeks.

I get it.

I love their offense too, but some offensive line injuries you can run on them, which Washington certainly can do.

Mariota can run this off This is a big number.

This is a number that you get against like a completely Yeah, they were just laying this number to the Raiders without Bowers and without Colton Miller and rate this completely broken Raiders team.

Like this is still a functional Washington offense that even if you're blowing them out by like seventeen, you can still get in the back door too many points.

We're gonna go with the Commanders Monday Night, catching twelve and a half, little Bilos cell high spot there.

Very much self.

I am game for that.

I like the Commanders play, don't love Mariota, but I'm willing to stomach that now, Evan, just for the sake of content.

If you to break the tie between the Commanders of plus twelve and a half or the Ravens at minus six and a half, where would you have placed your vote?

I want nothing to do with Chicago and Baltimore.

I just way too many question marks for me.

I think Washington's the better play.

I agree with Stuck.

Jayden's fantastic.

We saw what he can do, but this year the drop off hasn't been that drastic.

And if you look at it like this, which I know it's a little bit of a different way of looking at it, but the look ahead, like what we assumed Washington would be is casey minus three and a half.

That's just way too drastic of a difference in that type of game, and Kansas City's looked way too good that I would be looking in the other direction.

Like, do I expect them to win?

I do, but I think seven, eight, ten, Like there's just eleven.

There's a lot of different options here for that number, and listen.

And the Chiefs just sit on it when they get leads too.

Yeah, yeah, I think Washington's the right side.

Washington is going to have to score some points though.

The Chiefs offense is averaging thirty one and a half points per game, four hundred and twelve yards of total offense over their last four games, So the Commanders are going to have to move the ball otherwise we're going to be in trouble with that number.

But it's still a great buying opportunity for the Commanders.

Did it also worth bet you?

I'll reiterate.

Chiefs said three.

Josh Simmons is away from the team.

They're left tackle.

I hope everything's okay with them.

I didn't see an update.

I hope it's nothing serious, but he's dealing with a personal issue.

Tray Smith and Jawan Taylor.

Tray Smith's one of your better off its linean and your right tackle got hurt last week, So like that could throw a little wrench into this.

But Washington, especially with McLaurin and Debo back, but they can run the ball, and the Chiefs run defense has not been good.

They lost another defensive lineman last week.

And who's now an I are And so Washington, I think should be able to run it.

And what does that mean?

Keep Mahomes on the sideline?

So I think they can put up their fair share of points.

I think they can get to seventeen to twenty points in this and you know that I think the Chiefs probably get to like twenty eight to thirty one.

So yeah, I think, But just numbers wise, this is too much like this is Daniels has not been great this year, and the timing of the receiver has been off.

It's just and we've seen Mariota run this offense confidently.

This is not like this is a bottom feeder line like the Raiders is one of the worst teams gonna felt the moment without their best players.

And this is what the number was last week.

Too much inflation.

So yeah, we're rolling with and Avid real quick.

Who would you went with Giants or Jets as the New York guy.

I probably wouldn't go with the Giants.

I just think that a game is the extra yeah, and you it's the ultimate you got to see it to prove it type of game.

Like every single week, the Giants look better than we think they are, and it just yeah, on paper, the Eagles obviously look better, but when you get on the field, there's just something a little different.

I don't know, they fade and then they miraculously find ways to cover.

Sure, yeah, they are definitely I love fading the Eagles, and I don't know if I've lost as much as Stucky on that endeavor.

But betting of the Broncos the week that they were able to come back against Philly, that was one of my better wins on the year.

But betting the Giants is just simply more fun than betting the Jets.

But we're not in this for fun.

We're in this for wins.

You might not say that when Deontay Banks as the player.

I don't even know who they're going to start at the DeVos out But anyway, all right, what are your two that you're going with?

By the way, public flogging on Monday night, sixty six percent of the bets right now on the Kansas City Chiefs.

No surprise there as part of the reason why we like the Commanders.

Saints plus four against the Tampa Bay Bucks, Texans minus one against the San Francisco forty nine Ers.

I'll go into cell.

Mode for these and then I'll let you pick between the two.

The injuries are catching up to Tampa short week now they go on the road in division.

Baker has struggled in these spots four and five in those positions at ATS.

As a favorite against the NFC South, I eliminate everything involved with Cleveland when I do anything Baker related stat wise, So thank you for putting that in the primer.

Evan, this is a luck ranking game.

On top of it, Rattler through three picks last week, he hadn't thrown an interception since Week three.

If he can just play it safe, simple style of quarterback play, I think they can move on Tampa.

Chris Alave has been playing some really good football.

I can't quit the Saints.

I've bet this team a lot this year two and five ATS, so it doesn't exactly paid off, but I'm gonna go back to the well here and fade the Bucks.

As far as the other play, everything points to Houston here.

San Francisco's a cell high, Houston's a by low.

They are a disgusting football team.

One offensive touchdown last week in primetime.

They have been awful in these primetime games.

Just think back to that game against the Tampa Bay Bucks.

The sharp side was the Texans, just like it was against the Seahawks.

They have not been coming through.

But when you look at what the P rating is going to tell you is that the Texans should be favored.

I think most people that look at this game are going to.

Say, well, how in the world are the San Francisco forty nine ers not favored?

They're the better team.

Houston's defense is allowing fourteen point seven points per game.

Shanahan's teams the last nine times they've faced the defense allowing seventeen points per game or less one to eight against the spread.

I mean, the Texans might be bad, but all signs point to them in this particular game.

Yeah, I like both.

I like both of these.

Good job by Kendra.

You and maybe I'm rubbing off on you guys because I used to not like all your plays in the beginning of the year.

Now this week I like all of your plays.

So good work.

Here, I'm going to beat bet both of these.

I like the Texans.

I mean, look the forty nine ers, they had an all out effort against Atlanta.

But I mean Penix is just off.

That defense is really bad.

It's a bottom five defense on paper right now because they don't have Warner and they don't have both.

They just lost off, they have other injuries, Green, their corner got hurt, and they don't get pressure.

They're dead last and pressure rate by a wide margin out boss on the field.

What does that mean?

That means like Stroud's actually gonna have time to operate and even if Nico Collins doesn't play, they're going to be able to throw the ball.

He's look at the Ravens games.

Stroud looked great.

The Titans game teams that weren't able to get pressure when he was playing, like the Rams, the Seahawks, He's elite defensive linset.

They will just they just crumble the awful the Houston offensive line and they can't do anything.

So this is a game where indoors against a bad defense, even if Nico Collins doesn't play, even if Christian Kirk doesn't play.

I think with the Iowa State receiving core that he might have.

They're gonna be able to move the ball.

And then you have the best unit on the field in the Houston defense, still one of the best defenses in the NFL.

And look, Matt Jones has been great as a backup, but I mean look that, but he's had one touchdown, four interceptions in his last three or four games.

And who is he played.

I mean he's played the Falcons defense, the Bucks defense with all their injuries, you know, the Jags, the Rams, the Saints, like this is a big step up in class for mac Jones and this defense at home desperation spot, they're gonna be ready.

And look the forty nine ers Yester five and two.

They should have lost to the Cardinals.

Cardinals have a wide open they drop it literally wide open and drop.

They win that game.

They won by one.

The Saints had the ball with a chance to win.

They win by five.

The Seahawks had a chance to win, it was a fumble late.

They won by four.

They beat the Rams in overtime.

They then they you know, they beat the Falcons last week by ten.

That's that they have four.

There are four wins by one possession.

They could have all went the other way.

This team usually could have two or three wins.

Credit the Channa for when he's done with all the injuries, but I think Houston gets it done.

I also like your other pick, which.

Was who it was the Saints four The Saints.

Yeah, I agree with everything he said.

The Bucks injuries before the bye week, they're going to be more cautious with who they hold out.

Baker kind of came back down to earth last week.

Maybe some of the injuries on the offensive line widerc I mean, he was a Bucks team that was Baker was playing at a god level and they were barely winning games, like last minute drives every week.

Last week against a bunch of backups, he wasn't playing at God level and they get blown out.

So yeah, he might be coming back down to earth a bit.

And the injuries around him aren't helping.

Bucky Irving not being in it doesn't help, and this Bucks defense is still gettable.

Worry about the center injury against Videvea for the Saints.

I'll see how they mix it up.

But I like both of these.

My vote would be We're gonna go with the Texans.

That's what I have the most conviction on, but I'm okay going with either.

Ivan, do you have a preference?

I love both of these sides.

I've been sitting here trying to figure it out.

I think New Orleans is the right side based off a number of factors.

Something looked wrong with Baker overall in that game, Like I don't even necessarily know if it was the injuries or anything.

He just looked off the entire.

Night in mis step, wide open touchdown.

He's not comfortable with his receivers.

So who are we going with here?

Texans or Saints?

I Mean, my only question was going to be this when Nico Collins gets officially announced out, which we soon.

That's what I'm trying to figure out.

You think it'll come down a little bit because I'm just I'm a little worried going against San Francisco with all that they do, and I keep doing that every week and I keep losing.

But I think the Texans are the right side here.

All right.

But because of that and at DraftKings right now, the Saints are the best price of market.

So let's go up the Saints plus four and a half.

All right, deal, Saints plus four and a half is my play.

In the Two Kings and a Queen parlay presented by DraftKings, Kendra has the Jets plus six and a half against the Bengals and stuck.

You'll have to wait till Monday night for that one.

Commanders plus twelve and a half against the Chiefs.

That will do it for today's episode special thanks to our producers Gifford Gold and David Paine.

The Favorites will return on Sunday night.

All the week eight recap for you.

Catch it right here on the Action Network YouTube page.

Thanks so much for tuning in.

We'll see you next time here on the Favorites presented by DraftKings.

Let's cash these tickets I go.

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