Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume Podcast Network.

I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.

Let's welcome in my co host, my companion Michael andare Mike BFF professional?

Better?

Sign in Hunter Ello?

So I'm in Chad.

How are we doing?

Brother dude?

We made it Every year.

We hope and pray training camps would come a little bit sooner, but they always seem to come at the exact same time, which means it's time for us to kick off our annual division by division NFL preview episodes, going through each of the eight divisions across the AFC and the NFC as our March to Week one officially begins today.

We start with the always electrifying division that I am quick to show deference to, one that I have nothing but respect for, one that shows.

Us year after year after year.

Why it is not.

A joke division at all, A division that has been loved and admired by us on this show for going on a decade.

The AFC South.

Yeah, it's a it's a gross division, but it's a division that you can find a lot of value in.

We've had some really fun years been there, right, The Trevor Lawrence year that he came back eight to one, ten to one.

Some people got it to win this division on the last game of the year against Tennessee.

Pretty exciting.

In the following year, Brandon Anderson had him on the show, talked about Houston Texans.

I think they were eleven to one, sure enough won the division.

So it's it's just a crazy division.

You can go from worse to first in this division if you get the right quarterback with the defensive combination.

Just because we talk about the time, it's it's a bad division chat.

So if you just have one really good part of your team, you can usually dominate this division in that sense.

Well, look, that's that's sort of the theme for this division.

And we've talked about it a few times on the show already during the offseason, and so let's get into it.

The Houston Texans.

Sol rolls enough that both a vade in love and that's old Vans.

If you're go and play in Texas, you gotta have the.

The Houston Texans.

They're the division winners the past two seasons.

CJ.

Stroud had a brilliant rookie season.

He took a huge step back last season.

Arguably a lot of different reasons for that.

They're Division odds plus one ten.

There are conference odds sixteen to one, longer, by the way, than the Chargers, whom they crushed in the playoffs.

They're Super Bowl odds to one.

Their win total nine and a half.

Dude, I want to love the Texans, I really do.

I want to believe in CJ.

Stroud.

I want to believe in the back to back playoffs.

I want to believe in destroying the Chargers, keeping it close with the Chiefs in the postseason.

I want to believe because their defense is so good at every level.

You know, Daniel Hunter signed a new extension for big money that got Will Anderson.

Derek Stingley signed a deal three years eighty nine guaranteed.

I want to love this team so much, but they have done nothing to help the offensive line.

In fact, they've gotten worse.

No more Laramy Tunsel greater as one of the best tackles in the NFL.

The big issue last year was the offensive line.

I've got the stats to back it up on how it impacted CJ.

Stroud and the most important elements of his game.

Simon.

Before I dig into the data here, give me your take on the Texans.

Am I blowing all of this out of proportion because at the end of the day, it's the best quarterback in the division?

Take the best quarterback.

Yeah, it's interesting talking to scouts on the team where their view of it was, it's a big deal to lose obviously lose an offensive lineman, but to them, they were so bad they needed to make major change.

And that's across the board in Tunsil.

You can talk about him as a great player.

He is, he's older Chad, He's not what we still think of in previous years.

Right, last year, you can't put.

The blame on him because, like you just said, the whole offensive line was bad, But he wasn't that great either, Like he wasn't really dominant in as one on ones as well.

So I'm with you.

I didn't really get them move, But the more I've talked to guys on the team and kind of got their perspective on it, I understand why they made the move.

Now, talking about the quarterbacks, we talked, I mean, this is year three for CJ and this division three years ago was.

All about the quarterbacks.

Right, we had CJ go to Houston.

We had the Colts take Anthony Richardson, and then you had Tennessee take Will Levis.

Now here we are three years later.

Will Levis is gone.

I mean, he's basically his career is over.

In Tennessee.

Thet they took Gay Ward the first pick, and andthey richards is a total unknown.

CJ has been the playoffs every season and has won a playoff game every season.

So I think it's tough where we had expectations for people.

But to me, he's coming to the league and he's done everything I expected him to do, Like he shows up in the playoffs.

And again we talked that game against the Chiefs.

I know everyone played the Chiefs tight and tough last year, but they were in it.

They were in in that fourth quarter.

So this is a team we talk.

We know they have a load of talent.

But like your questions right now, I think is what the majority of the public is feeling.

That is why this is a minus one fifty minus one sixty, right And there's a reason this is plus one ten because we have so many questions about this new rebuilt offensive line and what is up with CJ.

Was that just because of the regression of last year.

We expected and defensive coordinators better against him and him struggling because of that and the adjustments they made.

Maybe, but a little bit like me, and you watch a lot of their games, he just looked different.

He didn't have the same confidence and putting the ball downfield, it was a little different.

So I get to hesitation from people.

But to me, nine and a half, if I'm gonna bet it, I have it right at ten, I'll take the over.

But it's so small.

Am I really gonna put a lot of money to it?

Now?

It's a very small margin here because to me, ten to eleven wins is true for them, that's a real possibility.

But the reason it is.

Nine and a half so low is because of the unknown of Tennessee, of Jacksonville, of the colts.

Like this, we all expect this division to be much better than they were last year.

Right last year, Houston just had their way in this division.

So that's why, like a lot of people have asked about this nine and a half, they're like, is it trappy?

It's not that trappy in the sense that the books have late this number.

Because of that, right, they have the same type of model if their model it has this at ten, why not throw it at nine and a half and juice it to the over right, that's where most of the public money should coming in.

So makes sense that it's nine and a half.

I'm shocked they're thirty to one Super Bowl odds, like I wouldn't probably put it below thirty five.

So to me, there's no value for looking at their Super BWL odds.

But if you want to make a play on the division a plus one ten chat, I can't fault you for it.

I've thrown a little bet on it in parlays with them in a couple other teams.

But straight up wise, this is not the team I'm better for this division at all.

Me neither brother.

I am not a buyer on the Texans in any respect.

The nine and a half is just not that interesting.

Yeah, it's not appealing.

It's not that interesting to me.

Let's not discount the fact that they really didn't do anything to upgrade their receiver room.

Nicocollins is really their only primary target.

They haven't really upgraded their running back situation.

Joe Mixon has an injury that has not fully been disclosed that they say happened away from the facility that's going to keep him out through a lot of training camp.

They have Nick Chubb, but Nick Chubb is old and injury prone for a running back, so.

I do I'll just say that the wide receiver Chad they did add I know it's not a big name to you.

Christian Kirk.

I know they had a Christian on him and Jayden Higgins, a rookie has as a really high upside.

So they did address a little bit the wide receiver.

I'm not trying to say you're totally off basis, but like they did add some pieces to the wide receiver room.

You asked what happened to c J Stroud last year?

I'm going to tell you what happened to c J Stroud last year because I've been digging into the data.

One of the.

Biggest reasons for his progression in twenty twenty three, c J.

Stroud was a revelation in the deep passing game.

Right per the advanced stats such as EP on deep throws or his PFF ranking for deep throws, he was so good he had one of the five best seasons over the previous five seasons of anybody in the NFL throwing the deep ball.

In twenty twenty.

Four, he was so bad on deep balls he fell to twenty ninth in EPA.

Again, EPA's expected points at it twenty ninth on.

Deep balls in EPA.

In the NFL, what happened?

You might ask, why did CJ.

Stroud regress so much?

And we try to figure it out all year last year, like where the defense is doing something differently?

Was it the injuries to Nico Collins?

Was it, you know, different kind of sort of thinking from CJ.

The biggest issue goes back to what we talked about in the beginning, the offensive line, the disruption pressure rate that he faced.

What that really means is like he was disrupted from going through even his initial progression increased from five percent in twenty twenty three to twenty five percent in twenty twenty four.

That was the highest in the league.

So this guy couldn't even get through his initial reads on any play and it took away what was his greatest weapon as a rookie.

And remember Blake, think back, We all remember how great he was throwing deep balls.

And if even think about that playoff game against the Chargers, he was throwing bombs in that game multiple explosive pass plays.

Those are what won them in that game.

In addition to Justin Herbert throwing the four picks was his ability to generate explosive plays downfield with the pass.

If he can't do that this year with a new coordinator, that to me poses a real problem for the Texans and Cjstraft.

Yeah, and we would both agree that they still obviously have the best defensive unit in this division.

Yes, still have the best quarterback in this division by a long shot.

And you know, if you're someone out there that likes doing these divisional parlays, a guy like doing, I have no issue with you betting there right now throwing them into a parlay.

But like we're about to dive in here, there's other other teams of the division that just have better odds, better value where I'm not saying it was fluky that you're one with CJ.

But you talked about a little bit with the numbers where we knew he was due for a regression on the deep ball.

That that's insane though him being twenty ninth, I didn't know it was that bad.

That that nice median if he finds if he can be back in the top fifteen.

That's going to pretty much lock them up to doing this division right like that would be such a huge bump in their offensive output.

So I'm with you again.

Another thing that's not being talked down enough about enough Joe Mixon being hurt.

I know he's not Joe Mixon.

A Bowl, but that's still a big deal to that offense where you know, he wished for one thousand yards.

He was pretty important to that offense last season.

So yeah, it's gonna be something to follow along the next month see what he is in the update on his injuries, because he he is in line right now to miss the first couple weeks.

That's why they're talking in camp.

So pretty interesting injury to follow with that team.

Real stabilizing force on the team, real veteran presence, did so much to put that team in contention when things were not going well for the offense and for the passing game.

All right, So it feels.

Like we're in somewhat alignment on the Texans and their failings but also their strengths.

It really could come down to their defense.

If CJ improves on the deep ball a little bit, we like them a little bit more.

But right now, we don't find any value in their numbers unless we're doing their plus one, ten and some parlays to win the division?

All right, Jacksonville Jaguars.

It's the chant heard all throughout everybody, call for pride and Jacksonville's team.

Let everyone know where they are from.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus three hundred to win the division, thirty five to one to win the conference, eighty to one to win the Super Bowl win total seven and a half.

Simon, can you tell me what this date means for the Jacksonville Jaguars?

You ready?

December fourth, twenty twenty three?

Was that the last time there above five hundred?

No?

December fourth, twenty twenty three was a Monday night game against the Bengals.

At that point in the season, the Jags were eight and three in twenty twenty three.

They were leading the division, still building off of a monster comeback playoff win in twenty twenty two against the Chargers that solidified Trevor Lawrence as one of the top young qbs in the NFL.

It made it look like the Doug Peterson Trevor Lawrence connection was going to catapult them into the next realm of AFC greatness.

Midway through the fourth quarter of that game, it was tied twenty eight twenty eight, Trevor Lawrence was stepped on by his own lineman, Walker Little, severely injured his right ankle.

Did not return to the game.

The Jags lost in overtime thirty four thirty one.

They dropped to eight and four in the season.

They'd go on to lose four of their final five games.

Finished the season nine and eight, missed the playoffs.

Wheels fell off.

They never put him back on the next year, even when he was healthy.

Trevor Lawrence starts ero to four, they never get into a groove, he hurts his shoulder, He's done for the year.

So who is this team going to be like?

Is Trevor Lawrence the guy who took them on that miraculous comeback in the playoffs and then started the next year eight and three and then had that debilitating ankle injury and the team kind of never recovered over the next season and a half.

New coach Wiam Cohne Brian Thomas Junior was brilliant.

Travis Hunter.

They've improved what they've done on offense.

Question marks at running back bottom ten offensive line six, easiest schedule according to one win loss projections.

So I'm a buyer on the Jags.

I can't follow you.

I know a lot of pros like again, this is this division.

There's pros.

I like a lot of these teams for different reasons.

A lot of pros I've talked to who like these guys in May, then in June.

Now they're you'd like to do more here in July.

The hype keeps building is because it's the classic new head coach.

Like the new head coach, you bring him in with the new offensive scheme.

You're bringing Travis Hunter, you I mean people want him to play both sides.

The wide receiver positions, I think is gonna be the first thing they're trying to work into him, right.

They want him to be a weapon on offense first, just because we know that that matters more.

The likelihood of him being a number one shutdown corner is much smaller than it is being a stud roar receiver.

It's just a much easier position to play rather than defensively.

But the thing that really stands up to me is the fact that you know they got Walker, they got josh Heinz Allen these two incredible d linemen that I mean, you know, as much as we like to shoot on the Walker draft pick, he's just been getting ten sacks every year like he's this is this.

I think last year is the third season another ten and a half sacks.

Like they they have the defensive front in my opinion, But man, are they bad across the board defensively, Like there is a lot of ways to attack that team defensively.

And did they go out and address that stuff?

I don't know, Like the Travis Hunter stuff, him being their number one corner, Yes, that'd be amazing an ideal world.

It's not looking that way, Like you just watch his footwork.

I just you know, I can't imagine him trying to go up against team's number ones, like him going against Nico Collins, he would have a horrible day.

Again, it's Nico Collins that, like Nego Collins, is so professional running routes.

He would put Travis Hunter's head on a swivel.

So, uh, my mind when I look at this team is high high upside?

Do you love the.

Number chicks plus three hundred enough value free?

If it is, then it's good value, Like that's that's the question.

Here is the number good enough seven and a half wins.

Yeah, if Trevor Lawrence can be that guy you just talked about that eight and three quarterback that was ascending at that point.

Yes, this this team should easily reach this number in this division.

They have such a high level offense that with you know, even if we don't know who their number one running back is right now, like are even looking at their depth chart.

Tank Biggsley took a step back, Travis etn took a step back.

We don't know which one of.

Those guys will be the guy or could be the rookie they drafted.

Like it's that's a big question right now.

But you're you, you kind of brought up with them.

We talk all the time the offensive lines, but then we really do care about that.

To me is gonna be interesting part about you know, you're bringing a new head of coach or bringing a new offensive style.

Can he rupped the offense around Trevor Lawrence in that offensive line?

Can he make it work a quick pass offense?

Because we know on the outside, if you have Hunter and Brian Thoms Brian Thumps junior, that's an insanely deadly combo wide receivers, like, no excuse for Trevor Lawrence.

We have those two guys in the outside, but can you survive that offensive line chat.

So that's why I'm a little hesitant with this team.

I didn't make a small bet on them their win total because it did open at seven and a half.

I bet it.

The juice has been going up towards the over because to me, they're all upside team when you bring in a new head coach, you have Trevor Lawrence coming off an injury, and they're kind of left for dead in the public opinions.

Eye, I do like them, but I also can see this team easily crash and burning just because of all that.

Like you just talked about, he does not stay healthy.

That's the biggest issue.

A Trevor lawnces just stay healthy, and he's inconsistent.

So to me, so many questions about this team.

I've bet bet them divisionally.

I've not bet them super bowldsive though it is tempting eighty to one.

It's just I can't get there.

But the win toll seven and a half in this division with all the offensive five power they have, if they can just put it together offensively, I do like that number, chat, So I get why you have love for them coming into this year.

Why wouldn't you bet the division?

Like plus three hundred It feels like crazy good value for this team right now that it eighteen months ago was the division winner.

Don't forget like even though CJ.

Stroud went to the playoffs his rookie year, that was the last game of the year and they only got in because Trevor Lawrence got hurt and the Jags collapse, like they're removed and they've got new coaching and a new administration, but a lot of the talent is still there.

It just feels like they've been completely forgotten about.

Plus three hundred feels just feels too long to me.

I'm playing, you know, I mean, I'm always playing the angle.

So basically, they start the season with the Panthers, So yeah, we've loved the Panthers.

We'll dive into them our next show.

But they go sincey Houston forty nine ers Chiefs Seattle than the Rams and their bye week.

So to me, if I think if I could be patient here and they can go you know, three and four, I might be able to get a better number at their bye week point, because then they come out of their bye week, they come out and they play Vegas, Houston Chargers, Ariazonak.

They have a really tough start.

To the season with that sincey Houston, forty nine Ers, Kansas City run.

Like, to me, that's just a brutal stretch.

So I'm just gonna be patient here, and I think you'll get a better number if you wait in season, just because I just don't see a scenario where they're going to Cincinnati winning, coming home beating Houston, then going at the forty nine Ers winning, and then coming home beating the Chiefs like that, Just to me, for this new coaching staff, that's a really really rough start.

Chat.

I know you probably didn't dive into that as much.

You agree that's that's a little little daunting to start the year that way.

I did.

I dove into it for the first two games.

I honestly didn't dive beyond that.

And I saw the Panthers the schedule and I'm like, oh, well, that's an automatic l.

For the Jacks.

There you go, and we'll talk about the Panthers in the NFC South in the next show.

Like you just said, a little hint, I know, we have asked people to tail us on the Panthers for many, many years, and Simon, you know, as you and I have discussed for the book I'm working on, I have done a very deep dive into my betting history over the past seven seasons, all of which is tracked in the Action Network app.

And the fun part of that is I was able to download every single bet and track it to the most minute level of detail, and my record betting bad teams, the teams that we have lost the most, that we are always so ready to bet Jags and Panthers like, it is amazing how frequently we lose those games when we are so sure that is the exact right side.

My favorite thing is you said, we've been betting the Panthers for years.

It was just one year.

That's how that's so many years.

It felt like it took off your life.

It was just one year, but it felt like years to you because.

And by the way, it took years off her life.

And by the second half of the season, oh, they were phenomenal.

Yeah, it was the best.

And we're talking about.

That when I was doing the research for Thursday's show.

Just that first ten weeks, Man, that was tough.

Over the weekend.

I did the research for Thursday show and I saw the Panthers and I'm like, oh my god, they were fucking brilliant.

And so we'll talk about that on Thursday.

But your point is well taken.

Maybe it's just a better time to buy the Jags.

It made impatient because that is I got you right away when I saw that plus around it, and I was like, yeah, I was tempted, and I was like, there's well, are they giving.

Me that number?

Let me let me look into their schedule a little bit, see if there's a better opportunity coming up in the air.

And that Bie a week jumped out to me that that could be good value that bye week if you want to take a position on them.

All right, So I think it's fair to say, Simon, the Jags and the Texans are where the AFC South projections fairly land.

The Colts are such a disappointing franchise.

A year ago, Indianapolis fell short of the Super Bowl on their quest to the NFL Mountain Town.

That's where we're going, and we're just getting started.

The Colts, they had the opportunity with Shane Steichen to take it to the next level because I think we were both really impressed with how he coached that team two seasons ago and with myriad injuries, Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew filling in.

They are plus three sixty to win the division, they are fifty to one to win the one hundred to one to win the Super Bowl.

They'll win total to.

Me at seven and a half feels like what they've been.

It's a representation of them being stuck in mediocrity.

Obviously, the biggest play, and we'll dig into this, is Daniel Jones is now going to be the quarterback.

Anthony Richardson has been a struggling with play and accuracy, but be still less lingering injury issues.

Like I feel like I don't have a ton of strong opinions on this team.

They're a middle of the back team being greater as a milk toast investment, Like what do I do here?

It's a tough team to read.

It's is it fully closed the window?

I mean that they had this incredible run where they had Andrew Luck and they didn't have the offensive line, and as soon as he retired, they finally had the offensive line and they had the defense.

They kept bringing to these veteran quarterbacks and you know, people remember I liked Anthony richardson the he's just he's failed in many ways, but they failed him as an organization.

And like you just said, now they've brought in Daniel Jones and you know, the books once again another line that people think they don't know what they're doing with them.

They're just throwing out seven and a half.

I have this number at seven.

So to me, the books priced are right.

We're seven and a half.

That feels right because the season go two ways.

Like they have some talent on the team.

They have it, like you just said, I think we both agree they have the coaching.

Can they have the quarterback to play consistent?

They have They have not had a consistent quarterback since Philip Rivers, So it's been.

It's been I didn't even count.

He was he was solid for them.

But yeah, I just it's just it's just tough to watch where you know, you see these pieces, I mean, like the tight end they just went and got this year.

You know it was flip flopped.

You know, you can either take warn or you know, the guy you guys got on the Bears.

It's it was one or two was they're gonna be the top tight end.

These guys are appearing like black Bowers, their apps, specimen freaks.

Do you want to get them touches?

Okay?

Do you trust Anthony Richardson to be consistent throwing me to a tight end?

I mean his weaknesses are those five to ten yard passes.

Yeah, And you know we talked a couple of months ago and we joked about it, but it's like the fact that he was missing offseason programs because he's has stalled a shoulder injury.

It's just all bad for this Colts team.

So if you are out there betting this and betting the total, you're holding on to hope of he takes that next step or Daniel Jones can come in and you know, we've seen him lead a team to plays.

We've seen him win a playoff game against Kirk Cousins, that Vikings team like it's it's there for Daniel Jones.

We know he just needs the coach in the right offensive line and the right scheme.

Could this be it, like, could that be the kind of thing where he just beats out Richardson Because you know it's it is a big deal with the owner, you know, Jimmer says passed away, like the daughters have taken over.

I see them doing it a little differently, and they're not to me as committed to Anthony Rision as maybe their dad was.

So if he comes in, he's just not putting it together.

I could see them going Daniel Jones, which my opinion would be better for them for this year, but not long term.

So it's it's a tough team chat.

I honestly haven't placed a single bet on this team in any way.

I'm leaning towards the under, but I'm just waiting to see who the quarterback is because if it is Daniel Jones, I'll throw a little on the over.

Fitz Richardson, I'll take the under, just because he has been so inconsistent.

What what have you seen that makes you say the daughters would run it differently and wouldn't be committed.

Damn the way I've just seen them talking about, like talking how they go to practice.

They're always meeting with the gms, and their whole view is they're involved, but they don't want they want to stay out and let people do their jobs.

Where Jim Mercy was notorious for making the main decisions, right.

He was the reason the quarterbacks came in.

He was the reason Philip Rivers came and he was a reason Calshner Wentz came in.

I mean Matt Ryan came in.

He's always been the reason these different things have happened, where apparently the Daughters are letting the front office now and make the moves, which again, that to me is a that's what you want, you want.

You don't want an ownership like Jerry Jones and these other owners that are heavily involved in their teams.

Just because you know the oil business doesn't mean you know the football business.

And that's always been my biggest issue with these owners, where they're doing stuff off ego and feel where yeah, Jim Mercy was a great owner, he lucked into Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.

Like, that's how it can be in this league, right, you don't need to be a genius to do those type of things.

So I'm excited to see the future of this Colts organization just because of that.

I really like like everything I've read about the Daughters, it just seems like they're thinking in a new light, and they're also kind of the new generation of trust in the numbers more so than feel.

So, yeah, it's gonna be interesting future with them, but we just we just nail on the head it's Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones.

We'll know more later in the season.

Right now, as we sit here right now, they're both splitting reps, so no one really knows who the who the main quarterback is going to be there.

Listen before Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, Robert Craft and Jim mersay, we're just.

Dudes who had family or.

Wife wealth, who bought a team and we're trying to figure out what to do with it, and we're completely unexceptional until they landed on quarterbacks who made them look like geniuses so they could act like these brilliant, thoughtful, caring player first owners that everybody wanted to love.

Right, quarterbacks solve everything, which leads us to can Daniel Jones be this year's Sam Darnold right?

And can Shane Steiken do what Kevin O'Connell did at least make him a little more comfortable, put him in better positions than he's been in whatever day Ball did that first year with Daniel Jones, can Shane Steiken replicate some of that magic.

I don't know, but the.

Uncertainty and the fact we've seen so much evidence of quarterbacks taken high in the first round getting opportunities revitalizing their career at least for a season, makes me want to pass completely on this team.

Yeah, and I would be.

I would be more interested in them if I knew exactly the quarterback was.

But at this point, like we just said, it's just like plus seven twenty for the divisional odds.

Yes, me and Chad love those type of bets, but we can't just bet on the unknown right now in my.

Opinion, speaking of plus seven twenty, the Tennessee Titans plus seven twenty one hundred to one to win the conference, two hundred and one to win the Super Bowl win total five and a half.

Yeah.

How you doing, man?

Mike Begnes with Tennessee Titans.

Okay, sir, how are you doing?

I'm doing great, man.

So we're going to turn this pick in here making the number one pick.

How does that sound good?

Last season epically historically record setting back against the spread run two and fifteen, the worst by any team in the Super Bowl era.

When the season offseason began and they had cam Ward and you know I liked it.

They signed Kevin Seitzer from the Lions to help improve their offensive line.

Yeah, sign what's that big signing for them, big signing.

And like we both love Bill Callahan as an offensive line coach and Brian Callahan obviously the jury is out.

We've been tempted here a little bit.

Yeah, I love this team and like Chad knows, I've been talking about them for a couple of months now.

Was giving them out a plus eight hundred, plus nine hundred, a couple of books for this division, and you know, love the win total obviously over five and a half.

Like a couple of books open them at four and a half, which to me was insane, but I think that was because they hadn't drafted Cam Mooard.

Yeah, and we saw after they drafted them, Detumber has shifted up the.

Five to five and a half almost all the books.

So love the win.

Told them.

My whole view of this team is they were so bad at the quarterback position.

It was just such a negative.

We've never seen anything like it like it was.

That was like one of the things that pained me last year was a really big blind spot too, the amount of fans of our show begging us to fade the Tennessee Titans every week, and me and Chad are just too smart.

We are too smart, and we just we did avoid them.

We need not bet on Tennessee, thank god, but we should have just been fading Will Levis and that train wreck of a team, I mean, the worst special teams in football too.

So again easy things.

To correct though, right because it's the quarterback and special teams to me was the glaring weaknesses.

It wasn't their defense.

I mean, yes, their offense wasn't good, but it was because once again, the quarterback position was nothing to me.

With Calvin Ridley with cam Ward that could be a real connection passing game wise, and like people think that's not that big of a deal, it is when you know Calvin Ridley has the talent, right he missed a year because of gambling, when he's worked his way back these last couple of years, and everything I've read and seen in camp, there is a spark there, like there is he realizes there's potential in this.

Quarterback, unlike there was a Will Levis.

And you know they've talked about bringing in guys for the special teams to change what they had last year, and it's it's a big deal when you know you're the worst team in football and special teams, that's an easy correct bringing in different players, different coaching staff to correct that weakness.

And we talk it's it's the quarterback, like it's in this division.

If you hit right on the quarterback, it can flip it.

Because you're going from the last play schedule in a weeks in a week division that's a huge upper hand.

So this is another team that you know.

Will dive into Week one obviously, but they're at Denver Week one, cam Ward.

That is a horrible, horrible spot for a rookie.

Denver already is notorious.

I can't wait for having to drop the stat Denver at home in September.

You don't want to go up to Mile High and play those early seasons.

It's hot, the air, everything, it's thin.

Guys just do not do well in the first couple of weeks up there, and you're putting a rooky on the road there.

So if you want you've already missed a plus eight hundred.

If you don't want to take the plus seven hundred plus seven to fifty that's out there.

You can just wait, assume they go own one and then take that position again before they're at home against the Rams, which a lot of people think that's a bad spot for them.

At home against the Rams, Rams and Notorious are starting slow.

I don't think that's as bad as the spot as people think, especially the fact that their first game the Rams against Seattle divisional game and then all on the road's that's a tough spot for the Rams.

So just if you want to be patient, you can.

But to me, I'm grabbing the win total now because I think it's still good.

It's such great value taking the division odds.

I just I love everything about this team and everything I've seen about cam Ward.

I love and again me and you talk about these teams, Chad, that no one's talking about, no one's talk about the number one pick cam Ward.

That's a good spot you want to be in when you're back in the team.

You want to be what.

Jane Daniels was last year, right, No one talking about Jane and Daniels at this point.

Everyone's talking about, you know, not to bust Jad's balls, but Caleb Williams and the upside of that Bears team.

They're running up their win total up to nine and a half.

You want this, You want low expectations on a team that was last in the division.

So yeah, love the win total for this Tennessee team.

You've said the magic word here, which is you kind of have to believe that the Commanders have the Titans have some kind of Commander's magic, that Jaden Daniels is the football equivalent or that cam Ward is the football equivalent of Jaden Daniels, and that in the same way, the Commander's defense.

You know, Brandon Anderson talked about this when we were talking about playoff scenarios.

It's easier for a defense to incrementally improve and it has a bigger impact on the team than the other side of the ball, right, And so you have to believe that the Titans can incrementally improve on defense, and that cam Ward can be as good as or just underneath what Jayden Daniels was, and that that offensive line, you that's an inside baseball thing, right, leaving in Bill Callahan his ability to coach up an offensive line if they get a little more talented.

You got to believe a lot.

So I feel like your entire bet is based on speculation and trying to find an opportunity and a window more than it is anything that any of us are going to find in the data and the stats on the field any of that, because we just don't know.

It's purely finding a fact pattern and applying some historical institutional knowledge to it.

Mathematically, though, it's as a better it's very simphen you break down and go through the numbers, it's literally almost mathematically impossible to do what they did last year.

So like, just going off of that, you're like, there's it's only up, Like we just two and fifteen against the spread.

Waen never we say like it.

It was the craziest thing, ever, how bad they were against the spread and how every game just Will Levis somehow had the stupidest turnover we ever sing.

We should have known though that Week one against the Bears was just the start of it all, and we should have known right then and there this is this is a train wreck of a team because they do not have a quarterback.

So yeah, really high expectations for cam Ward.

Every every step he's tacking since high school through college to right now, he's improved every level.

Every time he's moved up to a new team, to a.

New level, he's always improved.

So yeah, I'm just I'm really excited for this guy.

Just I'm I don't even want to say I have him the same level as I do was Caleb Williams and Jane Daniels.

But I literally have him right there.

Like if it was if he came out last year, I would have taken Jane Daniels.

I had him ranked higher, but honestly, obviously didn't know Jane Daniels was gonna turn into what he did.

But at the time I had them really close, like one A, one B.

So yeah, just a lot of the hearsay people saying he would have been behind Michael Pennix, I think that's a ridiculous kinds.

I think he would have gone before him last year in the draft.

I just I really loved the upside of this kid came ward.

What do you like about him?

Other than his footwork, He's just so cool, Like he reminds me of Lamar where there's got there's bodies flying around him, and he's just so composed in the pocket, so cool, calm, relaxed, even after big moments, big hits, He's always able to stay the level and I really look for guys like that.

The moments are never too big for them.

And I saw a time and time again in college where you know, he would have this incredible ten twelve play drive and again, Miami's one of the worst defense they've ever seen.

They would give up a seventy yard touchdown next play and he would just put his time, went back on back to work Draves team right down the field do it again.

He was just robotic in that way, just such a command of the offense.

And even when I've watched the little stuff I've watched with him at tennessee his just his poise and his movement.

Like I said, you can tell he's been working on his feet even during the offseason.

So yeah, I'm just really really excited to see what he's gonna be like as a pro.

He is a no drama draft pick, no, yeah, niche man.

We have not heard anything about him in the way we heard about Caleb Williams last year, in the way we heard about Shador Sanders this year, in the way that we would hear about other number one overall picks.

Very little attention being paid to cam Ward and very little expectations, which also could play to the strength of what you're talking about.

What is looking at all four of these teams your favorite division bet.

I mean it's it's gonna be Titans over wins in their division.

Odds, Titans over five and a half and Titans plus seven to twenty.

Yeah, just they really there's always mean to you.

I talked about there's teams.

I have a couple of fourth play teams from last year I like this year, but there's always one team, just like we talked about with Washington and the Vikings, And there's always random teams like last year that just pop out of nowhere.

And this this Tennessee really seems like that team to me.

So the fact that their win total is so low based on public opinion, I love that value.

It is massively under expectations.

Uh.

I feel the same way about the Jags at plus three hundred and over seven and a half.

I like it.

I told people I'm gonna be patient on the Jags and I bet their win total and the bet their divisional odds after their bye week, just because it's it's the start from hell for them.

I just can't believe the schedule makers gave them such an insane start to the season.

But it's it's.

Awesome because again you have a new coaching staff.

It's feet to the fire.

You're gonna you're gonna learn quick.

Either you're gonna have a huge advantage on teams because they're not gonna be prepared for the Jaguars, or they're just gonna get rolled because it's just it's a brutal like the coaching the coaching staffs that they're going against in the first couple of weeks.

It's just it's a really tough start the season for the Jaguars.

Look, if they get rolled, you got to start thinking about what's gonna happen to Trevor Lawrence and how they're going to manage that in the future, because that will have been basically now going into a third season where they have not exceeded expectations.

Last year, he was only injured in the second half of the year.

Yeah, so the first half he was terrible.

And we've talked about this, like, I remember one year we loved Trevor Lawrence.

I don't know what it was thirty forty to one to lead the league in passing touchdowns, because we felt like he had progressed so far and then oftentimes in the red zone it looked.

Like he regressed.

So this to me feels like make it or break a year for Trevor Lawrence.

I know there's contract issues involved, but if he doesn't perform this year and this team doesn't do well, then what are you fucking doing?

What are you waiting for?

Yeah, but again it'll be tough because with this division, they could just once again get to seven wins.

And even if.

They want to move on from, what do you do?

You don't have the dress.

You're not high enough in the draft to move on from.

So yeah, they're I think they're stuck with him for at least two more seasons just because of the money.

Like we talked about the contract and.

I just we talk he's inconsistent, Like he'll he'll win games, he can steal games for you, but then he'll turn out against one of the worst teams and just not show up or have a ton of turnovers.

And yeah, we're just we're on the same thing with the Jags.

It's like it's a make or break year and we like, we like the unknown, but you like a little more than I do well.

I feel like I feel like my favorite bet has a little more you can see it to believe it substance, even though it's probably wrong, and your favorite bet has a you gotta believe it and understand that this is going to happen somewhere in the NFL, and you're making your bet on this team and this quarterback to do that, to make that Commander's type leap, to make that Texans type leap from twenty twenty three.

Whether they're saying yours with more conviction.

I say this Titan's win thing that when I when I do these, when I grade these out, this is like one of the better higher grades I have on a win total like this has a higher than a sixer chance of hitting.

That's like when I when I run those type of numbers, that's really good win total wise.

That's why I'm so I mean you months ago, I was really emphatic about the team because as soon as I saw that, the fact that that's that's how big of a difference it is putting in a quarterback at a rookie that is that much.

Hot higher grade than I have it on Will Levis.

It's it is that big of an upgrade to a team that last Y Reid bad luck and we talk all the time about the last place schedule like it's it's a cheak code.

It's again, we'll get into all these win totals and different teams.

There's teams I don't love that much.

Like we started the Jaguars.

I'm not in love with them, but I get why Chad's bender over because their second half is very easy.

Yeah right, and they so they could easily have a nice stretch than the season.

So that's that's something we're really breaking down here is we believe in these teams.

I'm giving you my high hopes of this Tennessee team, but like I said, I'm probably gonna be fading them week one because it's such a bad spot.

All right.

So that was the AFC South Divisional betting preview.

We will return with our next episode Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page when we Talk NFC South.

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