Welcome to the Favorites, all part of the Action Network family presented by Draft Kings.

The Crown is yours.

I'm Brandon Kravitz joined by a couple of my jive turkeys on this Thanksgiving preview super episode Kendra and Stucky providing the picks and analysis that will make you a better better in the NFL.

I've got a lot to get to today.

We're gonna plant our flag, We're gonna nominate our two Kings and a Queen Parlay, Kendris Pickle, prop Evans Primer, all in one episode.

Let's start with the weird, the bizarre, the random.

It's Stucky's question of the week.

Hey, this is a dumb question.

Let me ask you a personal question kind of question?

Is that question?

I honestly it's not Thursday, so I didn't I didn't bring a question.

Uh, and I'm trying to talk.

Very as Oh no, it's not good.

Up for like three days.

I have like four more podcasts to do today for college and NFL.

You can ask anything about thanks Thanksgiving spectacular.

What is your favorite and your and then also what is the most overrated?

You can go overrated or underrated or both.

Thanksgiving dish kenderdie on any takes overrated.

I'm gonna go with.

Mashed potatoes just because I feel like most people don't know how to actually make mashed potatoes and they make dry ass mashed potatoes.

It's Thanksgiving.

Put the extra butter, put the extra milk in there.

Don't do this to me.

That's why underrated.

I'm gonna say green bean cast role and I'm a cranberry sauce truther.

It's the best thing on the plate.

It's gotta be the case.

I don't want the fresh bull crap.

It's Thanksgiving.

Give me the shitty shit.

I wear my stretching pants on purpose.

I also have a bone to pick with New Englanders because they don't do macaroni and cheese for Thanksgiving, and I think that that is a sin.

I think that they are all going to hell and I hate that about living up in the Northeast.

Yeah, I could not agree with you more about cranberry sauce.

This is not an item to overthink.

You just go ninety nine cents, grab it off of the shelf, and I want the ridges.

Yeah exactly.

I want it shaking when it comes out of the can.

Let's not get crazy, but macaroni and cheese is the most underrated.

It has to be done properly.

That's the thing.

You eat mac and cheese all year long.

This is not unique, but Thanksgiving mac and cheese specifically.

I have a rule that if you can't cut your mac and cheese into a cube, then it was not cooked properly.

On Thanksgiving, it's gotta have that sound.

You know what I'm talking about.

Yeah, yeah, any other day of the year is disgusting, But on Thanksgiving you said, damn right, give me this so and then that's so that would be underrated, overrated.

I think it's green bean cast role.

The fact that we build green bean castrole into an industry standard.

We could do so much better.

This is this is the best.

It's the best eating day of the year.

There are other green vegetables.

Why don't we have broccoli or a Brussels sprout with some bacon on it?

Why?

Why the cast role?

So that's that's my answer.

What about you, spiky, We My wife will spend like the two full days cooking, and I mean she's the cook of her entire family, so she brings up.

But I'm talking like we will have fifty trays like the big metal trays, and then just put the mouth for everyone and then the leftovers are the best part.

But she also makes me an extra duck.

I like having a duck besides a turkey.

So I think duck is like if you want to go with an alternative meat or like W Madden used to say, the turd duck in.

But I love a duck on turkey.

Again, A happy Thanksgiving.

We got a tur duck in right.

Yeah, this thing here, there's a deep bone duck stuffed in a deep bone chicken stuffed in a deep bone turkey.

It was stuffing.

Now you're talking.

I actually think granberry sauce is overrated.

But I'm gonna say, yeah, what you mentioned mas potatoes.

If you if you go to a restaurant, you're like, wow, why are the mast potatoes at a restaurant so much better?

When you think you're done putting enough butter in, double it and then double it again.

That's the trick to good restaurant mashed potatoes.

So I'll say, but I like green bean castle.

There's my wife will make that.

So Jimmy thinks a like a bunch of different castles like mac and cheese greening castrole like a Broccolian cheddar cast role with like bread crumbs on top, does a Brussels spout cast role with bake We're talking.

I'm starving right now, you guys.

So Oh, the funny story is my mother in law makes made the one year she made this oyster cast role.

And I've had oyster cast role before and it's good, it's decent when it's done right, but this is like the first year that like I had met her, like within a year of that Thanksgiving.

So she brought it to me and I was just trying to get like brownie points with her.

So I was like and I was like hyping how good it was, but I didn't really like it.

So I ended up like tossing it somehow, and then was like, oh, it's so good.

So now she like makes extra every year for me and then puts, well, we'll bring me a plate a bit when I'm over there, and then she'll give me this huge tubware thing of extra to go, and I don't like it.

And I've been living this lie for like eight years.

I had to get it off my chest.

I hope if somebody sends her this podcast link.

I hope she listens, because Alice is she cranking out the coin during the NFL season.

Kendrick's starving.

I am starving for some football picks.

Let's plant our flag for week thirteen.

Might flag in it?

Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.

Okay, you're really planning your flag in that deck?

Fucky, We'll start with you.

I have no bets yet.

So far, I haven't placed any bets.

It's still pretty early in the week, waiting on some key numbers.

But I guess I'll plan my flag on the Indianapolis Colts.

My Daniel Jones minus four and a half, my pumpkin.

I just think it's a good spot to buy low on the Colts.

There's also there's a couple of things working in the colts favor here.

One she J.

Stroud's coming back.

Historically, there's a lot of data that suggests when quarterbacks come back after an extended periods, missing multiple games due to a concussion, that there is a dip in performance.

So I do think that CJ.

Stroud might be a bit less effective than he usually is.

Additionally, I do think this Colts defense is trending up now that soft squardner is a couple of games.

Sharrairi's ward is now back.

They argue about the best corner group in the NFL.

You can maybe run on them a bit.

Texas can't really run the ball.

And now you're getting the Colts after three straight non covers back at home, right And they were at Pittsburgh overseas at Kansas City, so three games away from home outdoors, So now you're getting them at home.

Or I think that operate that offense operates at peak efficiency.

The Texans defense is a problem and it's going to be a problem, and they're elite at defending play action, which is what you want to be when you're defending the Colts offense.

But I do think that the Colts offense can do enough at home to get this done.

I think it's a good by low Sell high spot of the Texans with Stroud coming off with a concussion.

And then there's an additionally, the the red zone goal line off difference between these offenses, because the Texans don't know how to score near the end zone and the Colts have Jonathan Taylor or can sneak it with Daniel Jones, and then they have the coach, who is much more aggressive on fourth downs, makes much more positive ev decisions when it comes to like going for it with stikeen at home.

I think this is a good spot to get the Colts after that loss.

Again, they should have won, and I hope Stiken had the opportunity, had the opportunity to send the Chiefs home, to send the Chiefs home for the season and eliminate them for the playoffs.

I mean not mathematically, but they would have been in a tough spot.

It was fourth and five around the forty five, correct me if I'm wrong, and they punted up three.

What do you think was gonna happen there?

He gave it to Mahomes, He drove the field.

You're lucky that they didn't score a touchdown.

But all year the Colts have been super aggressive and they didn't there on the road against Mahomes, and they punted in a costs them.

So I hope stike And learned.

His lesson is usually good in that aspect.

But yeah, I'm take I'm going to take the Colts here at home against the Texans.

I could not agree with you more.

The Colts at home thirty four points per game, number one in the NFL four and one against the spread on their home turf.

This is one of my favorite bits of the week.

There are fours out there to be had as well.

Kendra, what about you?

Where are you planting your flag?

I am going to go with the Thanksgiving theme.

I know that we're probably not going to have a ton of Thanksgiving bets, so I'm going to go with the under and the Chiefs Cowboys game.

We got an extra point inline movement this morning.

It went from fifty one and a half to fifty two and a half.

I'm going to go with the fifty two and a half seems to be pretty consistent across the board.

I just think that the Cowboys, do with the additions that they made at the trade deadline, has gotten better.

The Chiefs have a good defense.

Rashie Rice and Isaiah Pacheco are both questionable.

Even if they play, I think that that's probably gonna be a little.

Bit of a hindrance to their offense.

And I just don't see the Cowboys as good of a season as Dak's been having putting up a ton of points against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs haven't scored a ton of points consistently this season.

I like the under at fifty two and a half.

If I'm not mistaken, it is the highest total this week.

Like the under in this game, especially because I do think that the Cowboys defense has gotten significantly better.

An under for the most watched game potentially of a disgusting isn't while families are gathering, You're over here and folks are sweating out their.

Turn them kids, You're taking the under.

That's the most joyless under have you ever met a season.

I don't disagree with you, just just stating.

The raining on the people's parade per usual.

That is joyless.

I'm gonna go with the Cincinnati Bengals plus seven also on Thanksgiving.

I'm super sketched out by the fact that the Ravens were outgained by the Jets last week.

Lamar still is not Lamar.

So while power rating numbers reflect that when this team is healthy, they're a great team, I think we have to start accounting for the fact that Lamar is less than his usual self.

He just popped up on the injury report again with a toe injury.

This his third different injury in the last three weeks.

I don't know if the Ravens are just playing games with the injury report, but the Lamar that we're seeing on the field would indicate that he's not the same guy.

One point six yards per carry, two point five over his last two games.

It just changes the dynamics of this Ravens offense.

Joe Burrow back for Cincinnati.

I usually like fading returning players, but I've been waiting for this one.

Thought I was gonna get it last week.

They still got the cover against New England.

I'll take the Bengals on Thanksgiving plus the seven Stucky.

Any pushback on my playing at the flag or Kendra's joyless heartless under.

Yeah, the problem with I mean that the Cowboys defense is improved with Quinn Williams and and there are other additions, but especially against the run.

You've seen that over the past two weeks.

Even if you know you're playing the Raiders and Eagles, who struggle to run the ball anyway, their defense is going to be better.

They're getting more pressure too.

I concerned is on the back end.

They play a lot of zone that works against the Eagles doesn't necessarily work against Mahomes, So Mahomes could have a big day.

They're gonna have to get pressure.

There are injuries that there are offensive line injuries for both teams, like Tray Smith's out for the Chiefs.

They're all Pro guard.

That's worth noting that.

I think Gitan's going to be out for the Cowboys.

They're left tackle.

I believe everyone else is going to play.

But like Pickens was on, Pickens and Turpin were on the injury report yesterday, I assume they'll be fine.

Is in addition to Worthy and Rice, but that's definitely worth noting.

I do think that the Cowboys can put up points on anyone at home, but yeah, maybe it's it's a touch high.

I don't I don't hate it, but definitely no joy on Thanksgiving watching that game yet.

I don't even know how many people are gonna end up watching it.

The Bengals Ravens game, Uh, I just I just think it's a pure stay away, Like there's number one.

The Ravens might be able to just lie, just line up and hand it off to Henry and Mitchell all game and put up thirty five on the Bengals defense.

You got I mean last week the Bengals got the cover, but I meant the Patriots lost all their offensive line and they barely got there.

And then there's no t Higgins, which is big, Like Chase and Higgins together is fireworks, and you can't you can't just focus on Chase.

A little different story this week without Higgins and Chase is lit up, lit up the Ravens in the past.

And then historically when these quarterbacks come back at their extended rest, especially Borrow, there is a lot of rust.

So easy, one hundred percent healthy.

This seems like a coming back very quick.

I assume there's probably gonna be some rust early, and we've seen this with Burrow consistently in like Week one of the regular season when he misses time in the preseason.

And then yeah, Lamar is not fully healthy yet now dealing with a toe thing.

So the red zone offense is not the same that they can't finish drives.

So yeah, that's just a tough game with uncertainty surrounding both quarterbacks.

So I don't have a strong feel there either way.

To be honest, still have our two Kings and a Queen parlay coming up on this Thanksgiving super episode, which means more picks, more analysis, But right now, a word from the Queen of the pod chatting about our royal friends at DraftKings.

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If your bet wins, the crown is yours.

Evan.

No betting week can start without the primer and you've got the feast over at Actionnetwork dot com.

What do we need to know before we nominate our plays for Week thirteen?

In fact, before we even get to that, a more important question, Evan overrated underrated Thanksgiving side dish.

Most overrated dish is definitely the mashed potatoes.

I tried to compare them to like the bills, like I feel like they come to the table every year and I just continue to throw them back.

So yes, evn is it fair to call mashed potato?

Are people overrating mashed potatoes?

I agree with all of the analysis on the podcast so.

Far, but I think it's more or less like you got to spread.

You walk up to the table, what are you choosing?

And that's the one I'm not choosing the most, and it's probably one of the more popular ones.

So a public side, then I'm walking to the table and just saying.

No to although public sides have done quite well.

We'll detail that in a second.

Where do you guys land on?

Should we be eating stuffing throughout the course of the year.

Yeah, we save it for Thanksgiving.

It's so good and the knock against it is, hey, if it was actually that good, we'd be eating it year round, like pretty much everything else that's on the plate.

But one of my grandpa be a box for dinner once a week, literally once a week, there's always one in her pantry.

Shout out my friend Nicole.

She literally smashes Thanksgiving food year round and I love her for it, her sodium levels have to be off the charts, but good for her.

Evan, how many times a year do you have stuffing?

Stuffing?

Oh god?

Now that's also kind of overrated unless you do it really well, because in the end it's just kind of sliced up bread with vegetables.

But it can be done very well.

So it's a it could be good, it's just a.

So I was combing through the primer and this one really stood out to me.

The Lions and the Cowboys haven't gone a combined two and oh ats on Thanksgiving since two thousand and one.

They haven't both gone two and oh straight up and against the spread on Thanksgiving since nineteen ninety four.

So I could have been waking up on Thanksgiving morning for the last thirty one years just rolling out of bed slamming a parlay together.

Cowboys Lions.

Those are the Thanksgiving teams.

I'll have them both to win.

I'd be oh and thirty one if there was ever a case against parlays.

That's it right now.

Yeah, that's probably my favorite note that, honestly, and I think I found that like a year or two ago, and obviously it's worked out recently.

But ridiculous that the two teams that we continue to force down everyone's throats have never been able to figure it out both on the same year crushing parlays for over three decades.

That is an insane statistic.

I never would have guessed, like ever in a million years.

That's a great get.

Also, the Lions never win, so it really helped a lot of those years when the Cowboys showed up.

So that's fair.

Do you guys go on your cousin walks?

Are we pro cousin walk in this house?

Oh?

Yeah, you got to gotta get this.

I had a cousin walk.

I'm in New York City this year, so I'm gonna go to Chinatown for a Thanksgiving and I could have had like a Thanksgiving dinner situation, but I think I'm gonna go to hot pot and I'm gonna go on a cousin walk with no cousins.

Evan, what what else did you pluck out that you feel that people need to know?

Saw some overs time stuff in there the public sides.

It's it's just it's such a heavy trend's day in the NFL.

Yeah, I mean the interesting thing I think more than anything is the fact that the public really does well on Thanksgiving historically favorites with sixty percent of tickets twenty four and ten against the spread.

The thing that becomes interesting though, is this year, and it's been talked about in a lot of different areas, but sixty percent of tickets this year is forty two and seventy three against the spread for US thirty six point five percent.

So take it for what you will.

That's the data, but this year been terrible.

Historically Thanksgiving favorites just ten to roll since two thousand and four, forty and twenty against the spread.

And the one that's crazy is obviously just the Chiefs in this scenario, but road favorites twenty five and one straight up since four twenty and six against the number.

Pretty good there.

The other thing on Thanksgiving, i'll give you too many there, it's yeah, pretty good, not Bad'll be the.

Chiefs, by the way, the only one that's set that category correct.

And then you've got the Packers, so sitting as underdog as there were three not down to two and a half.

Matt Lafleur twenty and eighteen straight up up as an underdog as a head coach, only coach that many games above five hundred, so he's really good in that role.

I mean, there's a bunch of other things here, Cincinnati, So if you want to take the Bengals, you'll like the fact that Burrow as an underdog of three points or more seventeen and three against the spread, which will be a fun one.

That line just not budging enough to get down to that number, especially with the news.

And we'll talk about luck sides for a second because we've got other games this weekend.

Both a grade luck sides from week thirteen through the Super Bowl, not counting the last week or the regular season sixty eight percent.

They're like in Washington and obviously this is Nick giff and Washington six and a half Giants and seven and a half crazy thing there.

Honestly about four thousand betting side since twenty eighteen Giants.

The Washington side ranks eleventh all time in luck score while the Giants is seventeen.

So two real big luck scorers there, which intriguing for the weekend.

And back to the favorites on Thanksgiving.

Yeah, SI favorites with sixty plus percent of the tickets twenty four and ten ats.

The problem is Evan that applies to no one, so's we can't even use.

That public sides, I mean public sides thirty six and twenty so I mean that covers everything right and right now.

The only tune that are really even seeing some action would be the Cowboys.

We got sixty nine percent of tickets on them right now, case ce a thirty one percent is kind of intriguing, see where that goes over the weekend.

The other one would be your Bengals at sixty four percent.

So a few things kind of pointing at Cincinnati.

It's it's store early though a lot of yeah, yeah, it's Tuesday.

A lot of people are gonna wake up on Thursday and then place their bets.

I would say, with the road favorites and the favorites Math and then the Lines and Cowboys, it might be a detriment to be a in a way to be at home this week, like the's with all the distractions of Thanksgiving, and then when you're on the it's like this is a business trip and there's no distractions.

And I don't know, maybe that plays a small part in it because it has been happening for a very long time, but yeah, that's that's amazing stuff on the lines and Cowboys.

Yeah, back Friday.

I mean there's I mean, there's a.

Real recounting that as a Thanksgiving game.

I mean, it's not in the data, but it's definitely it's in the primer because it's it's on a Friday.

You're gonna throw me an NFL game at three pm on a Friday.

I'm gonna give you some information on it.

That's just how it works.

So what is it?

What do you have specifically for Eagles Bears other than the fact that those are the two luckiest teams, two of the luckiest teams in the NFL, so hard to get an edge there as far as the luck rankings go.

I mean, just a great game overall.

I mean, the note you'll know is that home in Philly Hurts is thirty and four straight up as a favorite.

The craziest thing about that thirty and four straight up number, he's actually profited a better seven hundred and eighteen bucks one hundred dollars bet twenty.

You'd say to yourself, like seven hundred bucks one hundred dollars bets nothing, but as a home favorite, it's really incredible to even be that high.

We've had two hundred and thirty three quarterbacks and so three have made a start as a home favorite.

Just five have profited five hundred dollars or more so, sitting at seven eighteen, pretty wild.

It's Tom Brady, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes.

Not a terrible list.

Fantastic stuff.

Thanks so much, Evan stucky have you gotten or I know that you haven't placed a bet yet.

But in terms of the before we move off of Thanksgiving altogether, the other games, the early ones Chiefs, Cowboys, Lions, Packers.

Is there a side that you find yourself tilting towards for either one of those games?

I mean at three and a half, well you can get at DraftKings.

I would lean Cowboys, but afraid of their their zone, how much zone they play on the back end against Mahomes.

It's a bit concerning, but would lean that way, Like I think that that line should probably be three, which is where I get closed?

Is that and although the Chiefs took a ton of money at game day last week, like a ton, but it was ended up being wrong, And then I like that I'm very upset I missed the Packers at plus three.

I think right now the Packers are the better team than the Lions, and that's I think the market is coming down on that for a reason.

The Lions injury report is disgusting.

Yeah, they've had a rough go of that.

It is a few weeks heinous.

I was doing a bunch of research this morning, and I don't think there's more people on their injury report than off of it, honestly.

Yeah.

I mean the Packers are in rough shape there too.

They have some secondary injuries.

Kwai Walker, Golden Jacob's, you know Jenkins still on I our craft that both these teams have been you know, Jayden Reid.

Both these teams have been very beat up.

But the Lion's offense has been We had that one flash with Dan Campbell against the Commanders and we were like, oh, it's all fixed.

But that was mainly about the Commander's defense that day, not wanting to be out there.

The Lion's offense for two months is been sub average, are average at best.

The offensive line is not the same.

It's much worse in the interior now there's no Laporta.

Gibbs is like saving them on a That's that's basically the offense right now, but the Laporta loss is huge if there's no more Ben Johnson.

So the run game, it just doesn't that.

The creativity isn't there, the pressure is there, and then the defense.

Last week we just watched Jameis Winston go up and down the field.

They should have beat the Lions in Detroit.

These are things that didn't used to happen to Detroit when they don't cover against the spread.

And by the way, they lost to McCarthy at home.

J J.

McCarthy beat the Lions in Detroit.

Jameis Winston for he does that look right now?

Should have won in Detroit.

So yeah, we'll love a three there.

But do think if it doesn't pop again, which I don't think it will, it might, but I don't know.

Maybe a bunch of the Lions could be a public side on Thursday.

I don't really know, but the Packers are a good teaser.

Piece in my opinion, first game this season, the Green Bay Packers are listed as an underdog and Matt Laflor has performed really well as a coach in those situations.

I did put Lions minus three in the app earlier this week.

I don't love it.

I don't love it, I honestly, other than the fact that it's it's a home team, a home favorite on Thanksgiving, and the Lions off of a non cover have been you know them, off the loss off of a non cover, They've been machines.

They also have revenge on their minds.

That's part of this too.

They got blasted by this Packers team the first time they met.

But I do not love the bets.

Sometimes we place bets that we regret.

I'm just gonna have to sit with it.

Regret I regret.

Before even watching it play out.

I'm not in love with that one.

I'm all over the Eagles for what it's worth if anybody cares.

I think it's a great spot for them.

I think that the Bears are fake as how, they've been getting super lucky.

I know I talked a lot of shit about the Eagles on Sunday, but I think it's a good bounce back spot for them.

They're the better team.

If you're gonna sit here and talk about luck, I'm gonna go at the better roster.

I'm gonna go with the coach who's proven himself, and I think that that's all I need to know for this game like that.

You can talk about luck all you want, but I don't think that the Bears are a good team.

I think that they're a lucky team.

I think both are to a degree.

But the Eagles at least have the track record of actually being a Super Bowl winner, and we have not seen that from Chicago, Chicago spot.

They are the horseshoe in the ass team of the year, and it's like everything and it's not.

Going in like where you like put one in at at a time, like both ends are going up your ass at the same time.

You know, if we're talking about I don't push back on that.

I don't.

I don't hate the Eagles this week because I just hate needing that team to win by margin.

I mean, I know that's the part that I hate too, because I.

Don't know every week without scoring, Like.

I literally said that verbatim on Sunday Show, because I said that.

We've talked all season long about how it went from a quarter where they do nothing to a quarter and a half where they do nothing, to a half where they do nothing on both sides of the ball.

I agree that that's the part that scares me.

Needing a touchdown from them.

But I think they have to beat up on the Bears after the embarrassment that they had this weekend.

I think the Eagles could be a good teaser piece.

Take them down to one, and you don't them to cover seven.

Eagles and Packers decent teaser.

Yeah, that that would be my only concern because I mean, this Eagles offen.

They you would think you would hope that they should be able to run the ball here, because I mean, this is a team they have what eight wins, They have one win by margin, one win all year by more than seven points, and that came against the Giants, who have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

So, yeah, is Lane Johnson ago?

I mean he matters a ton.

I don't think we're gonna know.

I don't know yet.

So, but the offensive line isn't as good, the play calling isn't as good.

I mean there's the Dolphins line has been all hurt too, Like if Johnson's been hurt, Stein's been hurt, Dickerson has been playing as well.

They missed Beckton in the run game.

So Barkley's had a much worse year.

And it's the Madden curse.

But it's at home.

These aren't two lucky teams.

But yeah, that's that's My only concern is that the Eagles, like it's very difficult for them to go up by fourteen on anybody, or or if they do, they get it all back because they don't score for while.

We saw that with against the Cowboys, we saw it against the Broncos.

So it's but this could be a matchup.

And again, the Bears defense has been living off of turnovers.

That's one of the reasons they've been the luckiest team, one of the luckiest teams.

We'll see if they get some guys back, you know, Jalen Johnson, Kyler Gordon, some of their linebackers, Tyree Steens, and they have a lot of questionable pieces on that defense, but they've been living off turnovers generally speaking, to turn it over a fewer at a lower rate than almost any team in the NFL.

So it might be difficult for the Bears to get stops here and or keep up that turnover pace.

So I don't mind the Eagles.

Look, Kendra, we are at least with you on the fact that we do not recommend on this podcast betting on the Chicago Bears this week.

So that's uh, I'll take it.

You get our you get our green check mark here on the action check mark.

That's right.

Nothing more beautiful on Thanksgiving other than the plate that's in front of you, than getting a green check mark as you make your way through the day.

Kendra, what prop has you gonna pickle this week?

Okay, we're in a pickle.

Now, I'm really in a pickle.

Now, all right, look we're gonna pickle again.

Hey.

I could have gone anywhere with this because it's such a fun week of games.

But I figured the man of the hour, the person that we have to talk about, the person that everybody wants to hear about, in the person that people probably are going to be gambling on in different ways this weekend is going to be Shador Sanders.

I'm gonna pickle this week because part of me says it's time to fade him.

But the other part of this question, I know that we talked about there's potentially some weather for this game this weekend.

But his total unpassing yards is one hundred and sixty seven and a half.

I don't hate that because even if he does have some turnovers, clearly the confidence is there for him to continue to keep throwing the ball.

Obviously, the weather is going to be a factor.

I'm more so, is this the perfect spot to fade him?

Or are the shador truthers right?

I thought this would be a good, you know, think piece for the podcast, and it's It's really not that high of a total.

The weather obviously is going to play a factor.

But this is who everybody wants to talk about.

This is who everybody wants to watch right now.

Where are you guys at on the shador truthers versus the haters?

Fucky?

I mean I wouldn't go over.

I think the Browns are just going to try to run the ball here with all the good the weather's gonna be bad.

I mean Sanders last week he had his QBR was eight.

There the Brown's success rate on offense was twenty five percent, at the lowest any team.

Last week.

I mean Sanders had a what the safety?

They had a eighty yard screen pass and then he had one good play on a when he rolled out and there was a broken coverage.

So like I if you take away the eighty yard screen pass, he went ten of nineteen for one hundred yards with a pick.

So, and that was against the Raiders defense, which isn't great indoors so and it was positive, was a positive game script like they were leading.

So this sky had the Raiders in that game.

And to where I was wrong was the.

Brawn we all had the Raiders.

That was our.

The Browns defensive line just dominated the Raiders.

I feared that could happen, but I didn't think it would be that overwhelming.

So but I didn't.

I didn't see much from Sanders that changed my tune there.

Yet I have to see more now.

The forty nine Ers defense is not good and they're so they're just so beat up, but they're just they're gonna play a ton of zone.

They're gonna load the box.

And but I just think, what the weather here is you're the here's the thing.

The Browns defense historic under Schwartz has owned owned the Shanahan Tree.

The Browns defense also at home is even another level good.

And then you throw in all this weather, the wind, the wind gusts.

The cold party historically in in wet, bad conditions has fared very poorly, including last year in not the weather's not even gonna be as bad.

It's gonna be worse than it was last year.

Pretty lost outright as I think an eight point favorite in Cleveland, he had an awful day.

Doesn't have big hands, and he struggled throughout his whole career whenever there's any kind of inclement weather or wind.

So I think the forty nine ers are gonna go super conservative.

Party looked like shit yesterday.

Oh my god, the Browns are gonna So I don't I don't know the way.

I think if the Browns get behind, way behind, then you're gonna have a chance.

But this might just be like a low scoring shit fest, and then it's gonna be really hard for any my think.

Yeah, I just I'm in the boat that maybe they're gonna be playing from behind and they're gonna let him throw it, Like you're never gonna mess up this kid's confidence.

And I don't think it matters if he throws seven interceptions.

He's gonna he's gonna keep trying to throw the ball and they're gonna let him if they're playing from behind, you know.

So that's kind of where I was at with it, having put it in just the pickle wanted to throw something popular out there.

You're not gonna hurt my feelings.

Just thought it was worth the discussion.

Brown's team total is sixteen and a half for this football game.

So we are and we're seeing looks like the under taking some money as well is thirty nine and a half when we went live here, it's thirty eight.

And a half now.

I would I was on his under passing prop last week, and the thing I fear is this is the same thing happening again where he hits two good plays.

It's such a low number.

He doesn't need to do much in order to get the over.

I'm with you on fading him because he had a decent performance in terms of getting the win and a couple of nice plays.

For this is still a rookie fifth round pick making his first NFL start.

I can grade him on a curve, but there.

I think there are probably other ways to fade shador I would love that.

I'm sure the interception prop is juiced to the gills.

Oh yeah, maybe we go under him, please.

I wonder if there's one out there for over.

Like, like I wonder if you could get one for like over one and a half plus money something like that.

Yeah, yeah, because if you see him throwing two going.

Up against your your former boss, Robert Salah, Yeah, no.

Kidding, Oh Robert, what can give that house on the best snacks by the way, the solid house loaded with snacks.

Oh my God, shout out that family because holy kind of snack household.

I'm sure it'll be a great Thanksgiving for the Sallows.

Two kings and a queen Parlay.

Let's nominate them, Kendra and us your multiple nominations for two.

I have two required to bring two.

It is Thanksgiving.

You can bring usually it's to a piece.

It's Thanksgiving.

So if we want to defeast this out we could, but go ahead.

I'm supposed to have two.

I have to leg my crabits.

I have the Rams minus ten because they're my Kings.

I will never fade them.

I expect there to be a team every single week that humbles them a little bit, makes them look better.

Even in their losses.

I still find ways to continue to love this team.

They beat the crap out of good They beat.

The crap out of the box the other night, and I know that Baker Mayfield got hurt, so I'm going to take that for what it's worth.

But I think the Rams are rolling.

I think that this number is probably right about where I wouldn't go any further than this if it changes at all.

The other thing I want to bring up, this is for me, and this is for Stucky Seattle minus ten and a half.

I know that our king is probably going to be starting.

And if you don't know who Stucky and Ice King is, it's Max Brosmer, Max b Brozemer Truther is Max Brosmer Podcast.

But that being said, I don't really care if it's JJ or it's Max.

I honestly probably like this better if it's JJ, so do without what you will.

But I like Seattle.

They're going to keep rolling there at home.

I know that they've been a really good road team this year.

I just the Seattle Seahawks.

I know that they lost a couple of weeks ago as well, but they score a lot of points.

Yes, they didn't look good against the Tennessee Titans for you know, two quarters, But I think that, like I said on Sunday, that said more about the Titans and the fight that they have, I was right about the over in that game.

I just think that the Rams score way too many points for Minnesota to be able to keep up with the lack of offense that they have, and that's why I think that this number is what I like it at.

Well, I am opposed to you on the Rams, bet, so I can get down with the little Seahawks love.

My vote would be on Seattle.

Yeah, I mean there's a lot of uncertain that Seattle game.

It is worth noting that.

I mean, yeah, McCarthy just doesn't have it.

I actually like Brosberg.

He might breath some life into the offense.

Well see, I mean it's also you know.

A rookies first, yeah, first against a good defense.

Although the Seahawks have injuries of linebacker worth noting, but the Vikings have injuries on their offensive line that are worth monitoring.

But as far as the Rams are concerned, I mean they're They're up at ten and a half.

Now.

Part of the reason for that is last week, I mean, excuse me, last week last night the Panthers, they were missing both of their starting linebackers.

They had another line one of the new starting line get hurt.

They had two starting corners go down.

It was an absolute disaster from an injury perspective.

So, I mean, you had Wallace and Roseman didn't start, Cheryliss went down with an injury.

Horn and Thornton both got hurt in the secondary early, and Horn had a great game and didn't didn't come back out in the second half of the concussion was throwing up, so I doubt he's back.

He's their best corner and it's a defense that can't get pressure.

They also lost their third string right guard who was starting.

They were down to their fourth string right guard and their starting center couldn't go, so they were extremely beat up.

And now if you think about it going up against the Rams offense and both teams are traveling across the country, that the Panthers have a short week with a ton of injuries, So like that that advantage normally that you would have is negated.

And historically Sean McVay has traveled really well, especially to the East coast.

But you think about that Panther's defense, which can't get any pressure, incapable of generating any pressure.

Now with a potentially decimated linebacker and cornerback room against that Rams offense, I know that's a big number.

Is this just a long way of saying Evan's gonna have to pick?

Yes?

Like I was, like, you can just just call upon God.

At this point, I've been working with Stucky for long enough to know I was just getting prepared to have to make an answer.

I literally it's been eleven weeks now, and I'm like, I know where this is going.

S Evan cracking his knuckles over there, all right.

I mean, there's some fun thing called a little bit of a reverse line movement on this one because a lot of tickets, a lot of money on Carolina, but that line's moved from nine and a half to ten to ten and a half, and it's all because of what Stucky just spoke about.

So I would go with the Rams, as crazy as that sounds, because I kind of like Minnesota in that game, and I hope Rosmer starts that line though with Carol is literally something we haven't seen in like fifteen or twenty years.

You got a team five hundred getting tine and a half at home with their real starting quarterback.

Insane, crazy, yeah old for the season.

Bet on them would hit.

So either way, I'm making money here, fucking hey, you might and you might.

End up making money line this weekend.

You could just take that be.

Fine, could end up making money in both directions.

Too five and zero against the spread after a loss, or the Carolina Panthers just got dusted in prime time playing a team that has probably reached their peak in value.

I want to be on the Panthers.

I have not bet it yet for all the reasons that stuck, he said, the injury report.

Whenever I see JC Horn pop up.

Their defenses is bad enough as it is.

They're not quite betable if he's not on the field.

So I just know that I'm not going to be betting the Rams, but it sounds like we are.

So is that the official nominee the Rams minus ten is that it is it in?

Yes?

Yes, right, fine putting it in?

Okay, Rams, minds ten?

Stucky?

What about you nominease?

Let's go with the let's circle back to the two luck sides, and I'll make you guys choose.

I think the Commander's line is too high, So Commanders, I mean, we can get it.

We could buy it to seven here, So Commander's plus seven or the Giants plus seven a half.

A little concerned about dark comeback from cushion, but it was only one week.

Ye.

The main thing here is the Giants.

No matter what I've loved what I've seen from Kafka.

I mean the creativity.

This Giants team is still fighting.

They should have like six wins that they would stop blowing leads in the fourth quarter.

They could easily have six wins being the playoff phrase.

They've blown like five or six games in the final minute.

But I think the big thing worth noting here is the Patriots offensive line injuries.

So that's you do not want that against the Giants pass rush.

And you saw the Bengals the angles get pressure last week after those offensive line injuries happened, and they didn't have Dre Andrickson.

So the Patriots are probably gonna be without Will.

I'm almost sure they're gonna be without Will Campbell and Jared Wilson, their entire left side of their offensive line.

The one thing, and we talked about this, Kender has mentioned this, the Patriots haven't had injuries.

Last year, their offensive line was horrific, and this year it's not great.

Thick Drake may is overcompensated for some of the issues in pass protection, but it's exponentially better than last year.

Right, they went out, they drafted Campbell, they drafted Wilson, they brought in Bradbury brought in Moses and winning it was the only one worth a dam last year, and he's in the starting lineup.

But once you start getting down to like Verdarian Lowe in there, and some of the guys that they had to play last year, a lot of them are not even on the roster anymore.

They weren't even like the NFL Calber players.

But there's no depth on that offensive line.

Now you about two starters on the left side against a really good pass rush.

I think catching over a touchdown here is a bit too much.

So yeah, I'll make you guys choose between two ugly primetime dogs that are luck Sides Commanders or the g Men.

I'm still mad at the Commanders, and I'm going to the Patriots game, so I why not have something to scream about at this game.

If we're there and we need this one leg left, I'll go and yell why not.

I can't.

It's not the Patriots are gonna make me and Cravits broke this year.

But whatever.

I then, I, yeah, I'm tired of betting against the New England Patriots.

I did end up getting the cover with the seven and a half with the Bengals last week, but we really needed that money line to come through, and Joe Flacco just decided to hand the ball to the Patriots defense so gross awful.

I mean you could say I was screaming at my TV throw the okay, then he threw it.

I initially think.

Well, of course, there'll be a lot of fun to bet on Jamis Winston on Monday night.

Football feels too easy, even though it's the Giants.

I like the Commander's bet.

My vote would be on Washington.

How many, by the way, before you before you answer, Evan, how many games has a bow Knicks one away from home by more than three points this year?

I would say zero?

Yeah, zero, and that includes a game against the Jets team that threw for negative ten net passing yards.

Yeah yeah, this is a bow Nicks Broncos overrated fade.

I would go Washington for sure, all.

Right, Evan, what do you got?

I like the Giants.

I would go with the Giants in that game.

That's I just new England won nine in a row, like I like the lineup of over seven.

I want nothing to do with Washington, like I just I feel like they're headed to just in the wrong direction, while I agree with the kaf could take like I think the creativity is there.

I actually, do you think it's going to be dark?

I feel like Dart's gonna be back.

It's gonna be dark.

Yeah, I think yeah, which to me, I like, yeah, I think so if Dart, I like the Giants.

We are two halves of a whole idiot today, Evan.

It's fantastic.

I'm getting out Deity today with.

With your mass potatoes, with this ship.

This rules me and Evan.

This is Evan's podcast today.

All right, well we've got one really disgusting option for me.

And by the way, the Giants plus seven and a half officially in there.

I will say, I will say with the commanders, if you want to bet this now now, like if you ever see a seven, bet that.

I think it's too high already.

But we'll see what the injury report is today.

But I assume they should be healthier.

Like McLaurin, is he going to be back?

There's a chance Jane Daniels.

Plays right, so that's fair.

I wish they were still the football team.

There's I think I think he was originally targeting Week fourteen, which is next week at Minnesota.

But this is after a bye.

He's been throwing.

I could see him plying.

I could also see that on Sunday.

Night football against the Broncos.

But will I can't get over how that X ray was negative.

I know that it's like tissue damaged, but whatever.

I that was one of the grossest plays I've seen since Gordon Hayward.

I hated it.

I mean, everyone I know watched in slow motion just as they felt the same amount of ack that I did.

I just don't really understand why Washington would even play him at this point, but I agree.

See it's it's the Borough thing, like they just get they they want to play.

I get it.

But yeah, certain we're obviously worth monitoring too.

Yeah, he's expected to be back.

I fit like pretty for like he's pretty easy.

This speaker next week, I think him Singleton l s they have a couple of defense of injuries.

But yeah, we'll see.

I mean, if the Broncos can be a bit conservative here with some of their injuries, because I mean they're sitting in a pretty good You don't want to risk like your best defensive player when you are sitting at what nine and what are the Broncos down.

I think I think of the one seed right now?

Uh nine two?

Well, I guess the Patriots are because are ten and two.

So that's so gross to me.

How injuries we got it in there?

Rams minus now, I got it at nine and a half just to buy the number down because it was ten and a half.

We uh, we got Giants plus seven and a half.

We're at plus two thirty three right now, I've got a beautiful play that.

Well, I hate both of these we talked about.

I threw the Panthers out.

I'm not gonna obviously, we can't have both sides of that.

So Colts minus four for reasons that we've already discussed on this episode.

Or let me sell you on the little cover monsters that are the Tennessee Titans.

All of a sudden, Mike McCoy covered three straight with Tennessee the Jags off of an overtime game.

I know this is a Jags podcast, but pushing back on that any chance I can, they probably should have lost that game.

Trevor Lawrence certainly did his best to attempt that loss.

Instead, they win and cover by half a point.

Second straight road game, fourth road game in their last five division home dog of seven or more?

Do we really trust Trevor Lawrence as a road favorite here?

Does that sound like a good idea to anybody?

Tennessee Titans plus seven my other nominee, Kendra, I think I already know where you'll be voting.

I hate both of these, I will sayess.

And unlike any other Kendra hating both of my.

Bets, I will say who I thought was going to be hell health last week for the Jags have to be coming back this week.

Jordan Lewis gotta be healthy, Hunter Long gotta be healthy, Trayvon Walker gotta be healthy.

Anton Harrison gotta be healthy.

Those are the only things that I would monitor.

I get that it's a divisional game.

I've been praising the Tennessee Never thought I would praise the man he's eating Tennessee Titans.

They looked good against the Seahawks, even though they lost.

I gave them their flowers on Sunday.

I was shocked they put up that many points.

Trevor Lawrence is a big dumb dumb, guppy faced dummy dumb uh.

I don't know.

I kind of liked the Jags originally.

I don't I feel like I lean Houston, but I'll probably take the Colts in this.

I feel like it's my better option.

I can't go against the Jags, even though I hate that guppy face moron, I can't.

Do it, all right, we gotta vote for the Colts.

Stucky, You're already own the Colts, so maybe this is an easy one.

Yeah, the Jags.

I don't mind.

The Titans at seven has come down a bit.

The thing I'd worry about is they might be without two starting offensive linemen.

Uh Kushion Barry and Moore both got hurt last week.

Getsticy for the Titans quick.

Their offense line isn't already good, but those you lose.

Those two and callan Ridley's out, Not that he really matters, but like when you're the Titans, you need bodies.

Yeah, Io Manor also dealing with a hamstring, so they could be very shorthanded on offense, and then the Jacks could be getting healthier on defense.

As you mentioned, with Lewis and Walker back, they could get their their Harrison back.

We'll see on btj Uh.

I don't care about how I will.

I will say that the Titans like they've covered three straight, so there's two ways to look at this.

They've played a bunch of very tough defenses.

Cam Ward has and I think he's improving a little bit.

Like they've played, they've played the Texans.

His confidence is improving.

He's trampling all over the place in the first quarter last week.

I hate that he's improving because I hate them, But I'm gonna say it.

You're right, he looks better.

Yeah, it looks a little better like that.

But over the past like just month, they've played the Colts, the Chargers, the Texans, the Seahawks, so they've played some you know, early in the season they played the Rams and the Broncos.

They played a very difficult schedule of opposing defenses.

But they've covered three straight.

This should be an easier test against the Jags, depending especially if they're still shorthanded.

But I will say the way that they've covered is it's probably because I haven't bet on them.

I haven't bet on them in the past three weeks.

Against the Chargers they lost by seven, they covered nine and a half.

They had two non offensive touchdowns against the Titans.

I mean against the Texans they needed a touchdown in the final minute and then against the Seahawks, they had an eighty yard punt return for a touchdown that ultimately helped and then they had a touchdown in the you know, the final minute of the game as well, so they gotten.

They keep getting the back door like they were on the brink of not Maybe you could argue they probably shouldn't have covered any of those games.

So you need a backdoor to cover against the Seahawks.

You can cover straight through the front door against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Yeah, Jack Shield won't really trust the Jags on the road.

Like the jagson went like barely beat the decimated Cardinals team.

They lost.

They they went to overtime with the Raiders.

It's not the same team away from home.

Bag Jags fans.

This is not a Jacks podcast.

No, I still love the Jacks, but they're just not the same team on the road.

But I'll say, for the sake of this, we can throw in colts either against the spreader money line.

It's fine with me, all right.

I threw in the four and a half because I bought the Rams down to nine and a half, So the official plays Rams minus nine and a half Giants plus seven and a half.

Colts minus four and a half plus five twenty five, two Kings and a Queen Parlay presented by Draft Kings.

The Crown is yours and that will do it for this week's episode or no show on Thursday, we're off for the Thanksgiving holiday.

A Happy Thanksgiving to all of you who are listening and watching this special.

Thanks to our producers do a phenomenal job each and every week.

Gifford Gold, David Payne, our stats man, Evan Abrams.

Go check out his Thanksgiving primer.

It's a must.

The Favorites will return Sunday nights as we recap week thirteen.

Catch it right here on the Action Network YouTube page.

Thanks so much for tuning in.

We'll see you next time here on the Favorites Podcast, presented by DraftKings.

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