Navigated to AFC North Betting Preview - Transcript

AFC North Betting Preview

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume podcast Network.

Speaker 2

I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.

Speaker 1

Let's welcome in my co host, my companion Mike, and Padre might be a FF professional.

Better signon Hunter, and also I'm in Chad.

Speaker 3

How are we doing, dude?

Speaker 2

We are so close to having real football?

Speaker 1

Two weeks from today is the kickoff for the twenty twenty five NFL season, which means that today is our last division to preview.

We are doing the n the AFC North.

We got the grittiest, most blue collar franchises in the NFL, and the Bengals.

I don't boom reminder, I'm letting everybody know which divisions everybody is playing in their schedule so they get a sense of it.

AFC North, in its conference, plays the AFC East and they also play the NFC North Baltimore Ravens.

I doing my research started falling more and more in love with this team.

We're going to get to the Achilles Heel, which is always the same division minus one sixty conference plus three twenty five Super Bowl plus six point fifty win total eleven and a half.

Simon, do you want to hear why I absolutely love the Ravens right now.

Speaker 3

C It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not.

Speaker 1

This is a team that you know, generationally has had an incredible coaching staff and an incredible personnel department.

Right their front office has been legit.

That's why there has been no transition for them.

In the first half of last year.

Clearly, their defense was terrible, right Zach Orr, the new defensive coordinator, had Kyle Hamilton playing closer to the line of scrimmage, and this team was getting burned so often.

Speaker 2

They were giving up.

Speaker 1

So many points, and as a better we had a lot of chances.

It was clear early on that they were not able to maintain leads and we were able to bet against them because they kept giving up the back door and their spreads were so high.

Like the public is always on the Ravens.

Then they made some significant personnel adjustments in the middle of the years, specifically Kyle Hamilton moving back into a more traditional safety role defending against sort of the long, bulsive plays that had been killing them.

After going five to five and one the first eleven year eleven games against spread, they went five to one in the final six amazing, Right, What I love about the Ravens is they don't get complacent.

What did they do?

Their secondary Kyle Hamilton masked some of the weaknesses they had.

So what did they do?

They added JayR Alexander from the Packers.

They drafted Malachi Starks from Georgia.

They added Chuck Pegano as a secondary coach.

Right, they just got better defensively.

And oh, by the way, they added DeAndre Hopkins for Lamar Jackson.

Speaker 2

So amazing.

Love this team.

And then none of it will.

Speaker 1

Matter if they can't figure out how to lose Lamar in the right way in a playoff game.

Right, So, like, I want to do everything with this team.

I want to bet them at every level.

And I still worry about Lamar and not being you know, the player that he lived that he is during the regular season when we get to a playoff game.

Speaker 4

Yeah, and the biggest thing jumped out.

We had that Bachelor part again.

I'm not around just Joe Schmoe normal people.

That often was the Ravens hype.

Everyone all these Joe public people love the Ravens super Bowl bet right, That's that's who these Eagles fans think they're gonna be playing in the Super Bowl this upcoming season.

I am just like, where's that confidence come from?

Why do you have more confidence than little more than you do and josh Alla Mahomes and I think it is because of what you just talked about, Chad, that this team once again is absolutely stacked.

And you know, this is my pushback on the Hurts disrespect was two years ago.

You could argue that Ravens team that lost at home to Kansas City was one of the greatest teams ever in anyone's model, Like I know DVLA had them as I think a third best team ever record on their database.

You know, this is one of the best franchises at drafting ever, Like they consistently draft so well, and Chad just talked about they attacked free agency every year as well, So you don't think they have the money and they cheat in other areas, right, Like their d line, their detackles might not be the best, but they're just so dominant in other areas.

Right they might have the arguably the best safety and the best linebacker in all football.

So it's like when you have Roquan When you have someone that dominant, someone who can tackle so well, it changes the dynamic of the team, right, That makes teams have to pass the ball.

So that's what they went out, Chad just talked with.

They went out and try to attack the secondary, something they viewed early in the year.

Speaker 3

Last year that was a weakness.

Speaker 4

Like Chad said, they were awful at defense first eight weeks of the season.

And you know, their head, their coordinator, the DC, I think it was my age.

I think it was thirty four to thirty five years old.

Speaker 3

So it makes sense.

Okay, this guy is in over his head.

Speaker 4

He apparently reached out to other people and had people come in and help him out.

Speaker 3

And with that, that's a beautiful thing in life.

You can be humble and take.

Speaker 4

Outside help and everything you have all the answers, it's only gonna make you better as a person.

Speaker 3

Grow and that's what happened with their defense.

So grew, it got better.

Speaker 4

Like you said, towards end of the season, they were probably the best defense left in the AFC.

But this year they ran into was you know Josh Allen, he showed up and that was this year they ran into it was like, okay, you guys are a great defense.

Speaker 3

You're going against the MVP.

Speaker 4

There never is a great defense to stop the MVP right when the MVP is clicking.

It doesn't matter how great and dominant or defense was that year, just it's not gonna live up to that moment.

Speaker 3

And it sucked for them.

They did.

They got stops.

Speaker 4

Into that game right, and it was all in Lamar's hands, and yes, Mark Andrews dropped it, but it was a little too late, like even if they scored, we talked about there was too much time left.

So you know, me and Chad, this is a long winted answer that I love this team as well as you do, but this is another team that I'm happy to be patient on because we're starting.

Speaker 3

The NFL season starts in two weeks.

Speaker 4

If you've already missed the boat on them divisional odds and if you don't want to bet the win total, I would honestly wait because.

Speaker 3

Of the way their schedule starts.

Speaker 4

I know if you look at this chat, but they literally start at Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, at Kansas City, Houston Rams than the bye week.

Speaker 3

So to me, pretty simple position there.

Speaker 1

Hold on, hold on, you're missing one game the Juggernaut Chicago Bears.

Speaker 3

What after the bye week?

I think so yeah, I think they'll be prayer.

I think they'll be prayed for that one.

But yeah, I just I look at their schedule.

It's like, why rush to the window right now?

Speaker 4

Can't we be patient here and hope you know, Pittsburgh has a great start.

The Bengals, who we both don't really believe, and come out on a hot start.

So it's like, you know, everyone in the world, every drill public I talked to is drinking the Ravens school aid.

Speaker 3

I think it's a nice team to step back from.

Speaker 4

Let them hopefully start five hundred or you know, even four and two.

I think you could get potentially better odds here this team.

So yeah, I'm I'm happy to be patient on them, just because what an insane start to your season, Like you're literally going through the three arguably the three best teams without not including the Eagles in all football.

So yeah, it's it's tough where I remember, like months ago, I almost got sucked in right away betting than Week one at the Buffalo Bills because it's like, oh, it's Lamar.

Speaker 3

As a dog.

Me and Chad talk all the time.

Speaker 4

If Lamar is under three, he's like twenty and three against the spread something crazy when he's an underdog or under three.

So it's it's a tough start to the season.

But we just talked about there.

I think they're number two or number three in my model.

They are insanely talented.

People want to bitch and moan that.

You know, we disrespect Lamar every year and we're too low on Lamar.

He ain't the number one guy, he ain't the number two guy, and to me, he ain't the number three guy because he just does not choping the playoffs and he has these turnovers, which again last year he fixed it.

I think he only had four or five turnovers all season.

He has two inexplicable never happens Lamar turner against.

Speaker 3

That Bills team.

So that's that's the issue people.

Speaker 4

I think you guys are all too much in denial of shifting the blame where it has to be shifted on the Lamar like he has the team around him.

They've supported him, they've gone out, they've gotten no weapons.

They went out and got Derrick Henry.

Like Chet said, we joked about Hopkins.

Yes he's not a game changer, but it's a cog in the machine.

Speaker 3

Like you few of him.

Speaker 4

As your third receiver, bying Zay Flowers.

You know, Isaiah likely should be backed by week two or three.

Him and Mark Andrews.

Those are two really good tight ends.

So yeah, people can tell I'm hyped up about this team.

It's just be patient.

I just think that started the season is so brutal.

Super Bowl six plus six hundred and fifty, come on, there's no value in betting that right now, So to me, I have no bet on them when total wise, divisional wise, I would.

Speaker 3

Say, just be patient.

Speaker 4

If you want to throw their division and win the other teams and parlays, I got an issue with that, But betting it's straight.

I just I can't do it with this team in this division, just because it's it's gonna be better value to me by the time it gets their bye week.

Speaker 2

You just mentioned the Bengals.

Speaker 1

I have nothing more to say about the Ravens other than what you said, like love them.

My final note in sort of my notes in the script is their schedule is fucking brutal, and so it's a hard way to start the year.

The Bengals, meanwhile, super interesting value to me, probably not in the way people expect because of how much I love Joe Burrow.

Speaker 3

The Cincinnati Bengals ended their season the same way that they started it, with a die hard commitment.

The Bengals battle tenaciously.

Speaker 1

Division plus two, sixty, Conference plus eight fifty, Super Bowl eighteen one win total nine and a half.

You downgraded Joe Burrow out of your top four QBS entirely right to me.

The management continues to find ways to completely kill any mojo and just put more more obstacles in front of Joe Burrow, who it's very possible he goes down as like Dan Marino, where he's got an incredible career and has that early Super Bowl appearance and never gets back because I think the franchise is so incompetent, and we saw it on display this entire offseason.

They draft Shamar Stewart, then they put an unprecedented clause in his contract that he cannot sign, which leads to acrimony and a bad holdout for a guy, by the way, who had zero production in college.

They basically reached in the first round for a combine Warrior.

They just drafted the twenty twenty five version of Mike Mamula, And I will go back to what an NFL scout said to me who I spoke to after or the draft, and his comment to me was, NFL or college coaches, they want to win two.

They're not going to build schemes that don't include their best player unless that best player is not good enough to produce.

Shamar Stewart was the best talent, the best athlete on that Texas and team and did not produce.

Meanwhile, the guy who is supposed to be on the opposite side and getting some relief from Shamar Stewart, Trey Hendrickson, Like they've gone out of their way to alienate their best defensive player on a really, really bad defense, because that defense is why they missed the playoffs last year.

And I don't think they've done anything to sort of immediately fix it other than adding Al Golden, the defensive coordinator who had been with Notre Dame.

Speaker 2

So that's terrible.

Simon.

The last thing, their offensive line.

Speaker 1

Got worse, and it was already the worst offensive line in the NFL.

So they're not protecting their quarterback, they're not doing anything to get the opposing offenses off the field, and they're not doing anything to help their players find some peace and happiness with the franchise, give me the under nine and a half.

Speaker 4

Yeah, you know it's bad when Chad goes and they did out at Al Golden, Like who the fuck cares about Al Golden?

Speaker 2

That's what I mean, Like I got to have some talent.

Speaker 3

Brutal, Yeah, brutal.

Speaker 4

So it's like they're they're literally it's as if they got someone slashed in with a sword and they literally put the smallest band aid possible on that gash, and it's like, what the fuck happened?

Speaker 2

Like how did they how did they every?

Like as I did the research, and like we all have our biases.

Sorry to cut you off, but like we always get so.

Speaker 1

Enamored with quarterbacks and think they can, to your point, band aid over everything.

And we love Joe Burrow, but you were ahead of this, Like this team is just not good enough to do anything, even keep Joe Burrow upright, it's just not going to be enough to have Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase and t Higgins.

Speaker 2

Like it's just not there.

Speaker 4

And this team is the definition of wins or a QB stat because without Joe Burrow they're getting maybe two wins, three wins.

So Joe he will carry this corpse of a team to eight nine, ten wins, and if you want to take that over nine and a half, go ahead.

But to me, I have him at eight wins, so I have him a full game.

Speaker 3

And a half below it.

Speaker 4

And you know, god damn, we're people mad that I had Joe Burrow number six as my quarterback rankings.

Speaker 3

And I get it, like no.

Speaker 4

One's doubting the talent level of Joe Burrow.

But you can see, like some of those sacks he takes, that's on Joe, And I heard people complain, well, he did show up.

Look at his stats against the Chiefs and the Egles, all these teams last year.

Speaker 3

You need to go back and watch the games.

Speaker 4

You need to go back and watch that Chiefs game where it's thirty and six, there's two minutes left.

He has the ball and if he gets our first down, the game is basically over and he misses the hot read and he takes a really bad sack on a very easy to read blitz coming to him when he's going against that Baltimore Ravens team, which you know, that game haunts me last year in this wall turnover again that falls onto Joe.

So it's once again coming to the season.

Speaker 3

I get why.

Speaker 4

People are so in love with Joe Burrow and the weapons he has him.

It's a fantasy football team.

This again.

The joke is this team is constructed by a thirteen year old.

Like they were like, Okay, let's pay t Higgins, let's pay Chase, let's pay our quarterback, and then let's not pay anybody else.

Let's just go cheap on every other position, and you know, let our best safety walk.

Chat just talk about letting Trey Hendricks walk.

I can't believe it's real.

I really can't believe they didn't pay Trey where.

You know he has been opened that he's he loves the Bengals.

He grew up a Bengals fan, and he was willing to take a discount to stay.

He just wants guaranteed money, which you should pay them.

You should pay him that guaranteed money because the splits between him on the field and off the field for your defense is so extreme.

Speaker 3

But they're not.

Speaker 4

They're just very stubborn and it's bad ownership.

And their window was that Joe Burrow rookie year because you had the stud quarterback and his number one receiver and paid them nothing.

You could have paid the rest of your team, and you let guys walk.

You didn't pay certain players.

Speaker 3

So yeah, this is to me a very don dumb Joe public bet.

Speaker 4

If you've taken any positive position on this Bengals teams, you clearly never looked into what their defense was going to be.

You clearly overthought what their quarterback position is.

Where I just said it, like again, it doesn't sound great to you.

Joe Burrow is a top five, top six quarterback to many people.

Speaker 3

That is very impressive for this kid.

Speaker 4

But we talk all the time, you have to build it out around them, and they failed them on the offensive.

Speaker 3

Line, they failed him on the defense.

Speaker 4

So yeah, I'm on their under I'm on their plus one eighty five to not make the playoffs.

And would I be shocked if they can back toward the way And no, because we just talked about Joe Burrows one of the best quarterbacks on football.

Speaker 3

But how are they going to hold leads?

Speaker 4

They won't I'm telling you people, they won't be able to stop anybody.

And Joe, just like he did last year, we'll try to do too much and he won't make mistakes.

Speaker 3

So we saw it last year.

Speaker 4

As long as they play bad teams below five hundred, they were dominant.

Soon as they played a team above five hundred or a playoff team, they got rolled.

Speaker 3

And that's just what it's going to be like this season.

So you know, they could get fluky.

Speaker 4

Wins here and there, they could get to this win till they could back their way into the playoffs, but you.

Speaker 3

Know, super Bowl winning their.

Speaker 4

Conference, like they just they feel so far below the Chiefs, the Bills, the Ravens.

Hell, you can even throw the Broncos in there if you want.

I just I just cannot get there with the Cincinnati team.

So I know it sucks to be doom and gloom on them.

We both love Joe and it's a really fun team, but their window feels like it's closed and it's going to be a three to four year rebuild because they've failed on so many different levels with that offensive line, that defense.

Speaker 3

So yeah, again, it's it's so negative right now.

Speaker 4

But of all the teams's division, they feel like, I mean, we're gonna talk about Pittsburgh in a second, but they feel like they're a team whose window is closed and they're going to need to rebuild for three four years, and that's that's exactly wh we don't want to be in this division that you know right now, the Ravens just feel like five years ahead of them.

Speaker 1

So you mentioned the schedule, and I thought you you pointed it out brilliantly.

Speaker 2

They got bad teams.

Speaker 1

They got the Browns, Yeah, they got the Jets, they got the Jags, who are an unknown quantity right now.

Every other game on their roster because they've got the NFC North feels like a fifty to fifty proposition between having to play each of their teams twice, especially the Ravens, and having to play all of the NFC North teams, those are six really hard games.

Speaker 3

Yeah, for this team, I can't find the wins.

Speaker 2

I can't find.

Speaker 3

I can't find.

People are giving me about having no eight wins, that's being nice.

Speaker 2

I feel like I can't fight the guaranteed wins.

Speaker 1

Like in every schedule elite teams, you can find the guaranteed wins.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I can't.

Speaker 1

Find the games where I'm like, oh, yeah, the Bengals should easily win that game in any of those except for the Browns.

Speaker 2

And the Jets.

That's fair, that's it, But that's.

Speaker 1

Not when you want to be betting on a team to get to double digit wins.

Speaker 2

I'm glad we're on the same side on that.

Speaker 1

I didn't know which way you were going to go because I know you're a little down on Burrow, but you know, we don't talk about this, so.

Speaker 4

I never yeah me being down, Bros.

I have them at number six my top ten quarterbacks.

Speaker 1

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Speaker 2

The Pittsburg Stealers.

Speaker 3

Ah I hit that horn, Babe, Let's day.

Speaker 1

It Stealers plus five point fifty to win the Division twenty to one to win the Conference super Bowl forty one.

Win total eight and a half.

Feels like we're getting a Mike Tomlin balance at the eight and a half.

Their defense is great if if everyone is fat and happy right and right now, they're not.

Speaker 2

TJ.

Speaker 1

Watt, who by the way, is thirty one years old, has a new deal.

Cam Hayward a hold in only been sort of doing light prack just work, but has said he'll sit out games.

Got Annon Rodgers obviously, who has not been Anaron Rodgers for years.

Their greatest asset is Mike Tomlin and his ability to coax wins.

And that's why I think the win total is even at eight and a half.

Like otherwise, if you judge this just on talent, I think it's probably seven and a half.

I think, like if I were betting this team, I probably wait until the second half of the year and see if I can get and adjusted under because the first half of the year Jets, Browns, Patriots, Seahowse Colts like not terrible, but the second half of the year they got Bills, Ravens twice, Lions gets harder.

What do you think of this?

Speaker 4

Yeah, just an interesting build team like you talk about the defense.

I think it's one hundred and six two million that they've spent on their defense, and you know, being an Eagles fan, I think we're at maybe seventy million.

So it's like, are they ninety million dollars better than the Eagles defense?

Probably not, But that's how it is when Chad Tuckler, you're paying older guys big contracts, and you know, Cam Hayward, I'd be ripping my fucking hair out if I work in that front office.

Speaker 3

Who the fuck does this guy think?

Speaker 4

He is signing a new deal last year now coming in a year later, being all pissy, He's saying I out played that contract the year before.

Speaker 3

Not getting weird, right, bizarre?

Speaker 4

There must be something else because everything you've ever read about Cam is he's like the man.

He's a football guys team first, Yeah, just the man.

But you know what is he thirty six thirty seven?

He gets it where he's like, that was probably as good as it gets last year, and if I can get one more payday, I might as well try it and try to be a piece of shit about it.

Where it's everyone else on that team is just like, dude, we just paid TJ.

We've signed all these guys, I mean even like even their kickers having some drama about money.

So it's like, what is going on with Pittsburgh.

They try to be good and pay their guys, and now all these other players are thrown on their face being like I want more, want I deserve more.

Speaker 3

It's tough.

Speaker 4

And again, this is another team that I wanted to be on them as a sneaky team in this division where it's like, you know, everyone's talking Ravens.

Speaker 3

Bengals, Steelers, if Rogers.

Speaker 4

You know, again, as much as people left him for dead, he did look so much better that second half of the season.

He looked confident, pushing the ball downfield, pushing off his back foot, where.

Speaker 3

For the first eight nine weeks he did not do that.

He was very timid.

And you know, we know the deal.

Speaker 4

This is not Brady going to the Bucks.

Rogers is not built that way.

He doesn't play the same style.

And you know, this is the guy that relied a lot on his athleticism and that's gone.

So now we're sitting with a watch at a bottom, you know, not top twenty, but maybe top twenty five quarterback.

Like I'm trying to think where I even fit in Rogers now.

And when I model this team out, my model doesn't get the Tomlin effect.

Speaker 3

You just nailed it.

Speaker 4

Like my model has him at seven wins, so I have him at a game and a half below it.

But a computer doesn't understand that Tomlin.

It's he's a glitch.

There's nothing like in coaching wise, like this guy just wille So what's.

Speaker 1

The value of that though, Like to me, I think they're giving him.

You say they're at seven.

I had it at seven and a half, and I think they're getting an extra game just because of Tomlin.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I mean if you think Rabel's worth two and a half, Tomlin should be worth three to you, then Chad, Like, as much as I want to give respect of Rabel, Tomlin's that dude.

And I know he doesn't have the success, but it's like, dude, every year they throw out trash at the quarterback position and he makes it work because he just wills this team special teams, defense.

Speaker 3

Whatever it is.

So we know the deal.

Speaker 4

Like this team, I think you just nailed it too, where it's like you want to take a position later and take their under.

That was the move last year and I hate that I missed it where we all kind of started drinking the kool aid on you know, Russell Wilson because he came in he was so dynamic and they kept winning after Justin Fields got benched.

But we kept saying ourselves, the number doesn't back it up.

When you dive into Russell Wilson, it's not it's just luck.

Like his fifty to fifty balls deep downfield.

Eventually it's gonna go the other way.

And I think they went.

I don't know if it was five straight games.

They just got worked.

At the end of the season, they couldn't cover either.

So I look at this team that if they just have a stable position player and Aaron Rodgers the quarterback position and he can get the ball to DK and they can make it work offensively, and you know this rookie of the draft can be the number one running back.

Great, But like I have so many questions about their offensive line.

I have so many questions about their run block and all the offensive line.

I just I can't get it get there and be excited.

So I'll bet the over out of respect to Tomlin.

But yeah, like as we sit here right now, this is another game where It's like I have two other teams.

I rather bet heavier on their win total the Bango's under much rather bet that, and then we're about to talk Cleveland.

Speaker 3

So yeah, I'm just I'm.

Speaker 4

Uninspired by Pittsburgh and I feel bad for their fans where it's just you're just stuck in this middle, floating around position and they basically they burned the boats, Chad.

Like I just talked about the Bengals missed their window, this is Pittsburgh's window.

Like they have a very old, expensive defense that maybe one or two years here left, Like you literally went out and got Sleigh.

You know, I love Sleigh obviously him and Ramsey.

Yes, that could be good cornerbacks or could be two dudes way over the hill that are about to get absolutely cooked by almost every team in their divisions wide receivers.

So that's that's the fear here is They're just a very old team with a lot of guys who could get a lot of injuries.

So I just I can't get excited again.

Four to one Super Bowl odds.

Who's betting that?

Who's betting Pittsburgh at four to one thinking they're gonna hold up through the whole year in the AFC.

I just it's very bizarre with their team.

I feel like back in the day they would have been sixty or fifty five to one.

The books are just giving U shit odds in the Super Bowl, So yeah, no better e other than the win total.

Speaker 2

Here feels very.

Speaker 1

Washington team formerly known as Mid nineteen nineties late nineteen nineties, signing big name players who have long track records, hoping that is the key.

Speaker 2

When does this ever work out?

Speaker 1

When do you ever sign a forty plus year old quarterback, give up draft picks for a always disgruntled, high maintenance receiver, and then go all in on two cornerbacks who have been bouncing around in the latter stages of their career because they might be in the latter stages of their career.

This has never worked in the history of football.

Speaker 2

This has never worked.

Speaker 4

That's why they just got to hope on Tomlin, Like that's the whole team is just built around Tomlin.

It feels like where it's just you need to make all these personalities work, and it's tough.

Speaker 1

I feel like that's not a recipe for success in the NFL.

Last I checked, you actually have to have good players.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean it's just it's brutal.

Speaker 1

Hey, speaking of good players, how about those Cleveland Browns, cleve.

Speaker 3

Len Rots, cleveln Rocks, Cleveland Rocks, Cleveland Rocks.

Speaker 1

Thirty to one to win the division.

I had to check that three times.

There are one hundred to one to win the conference, two hundred to one to win the Super Bowl win total four and a half tied with the Giants for the longest division odds in the NFL.

Speaker 2

It's a tricky one.

Speaker 1

It's actually similar to the Giants, right because their defense is so good, especially the defensive line.

When you and I talked about the Giants during the nfca's preview, like, we talked about their defensive line and they're how good it is, especially with Dexter Lawrence.

The Browns obviously have Miles Garrett.

We have a bias to the defense, but last year we did get caught a couple of times, like believing their defense would be good enough to keep games close, and then the offense was just so incompetent there was no saving this team.

So, like Joe Flacco is going to be the starting quarterback, I don't know that I have more confidence in this team.

Because he's doing that right, Like, can they beat the Jets and the Titans?

Those are the games that like would maybe you can circle them as wins, But I don't know, man, you seem to have a strong opinion here.

Speaker 4

I fucking love this Browns team, give me that over four and a half.

Speaker 3

I love this team so much.

Speaker 4

And it's another team that people just they're out on them, right, it's a gross team.

Speaker 3

They got the QB drama right.

They drafted these two young kids.

Even Chad was.

Speaker 4

Like, no, it'll be Shador starting where I knew all along, It's gonna be Joe fucking Flacco.

Man, it's just what he does.

Baby, He's just the contonment pro doesn't say much.

He's my favorite line he had where they were like, yeah, you're gonna mentor these guys and help.

Speaker 3

Them out, and he goes, no, I'm this is my job.

I'm here to win.

Speaker 4

They want to copy me and watch how I go about my business.

That's how I mentor them.

I'll show on what it's like to be a professional quarterback.

Was he thirty nine years old?

Thirty eight years old?

Speaker 3

I mean, it's it's crazy that Joe is still in the league, still a.

Speaker 4

Starter, and the disrespect of this team is getting because last year they had nothing at the quarterback position.

Speaker 3

Joe is not nothing like.

Speaker 4

Yes, you could say he was bad last year with that Colts team, that to me was so much dysfunction within the organization, where the Browns you could say they had this sicks function.

Speaker 3

I look at this.

Fanski is a great coach.

Speaker 4

I think he plays within a system that when a quarterback can run his system, it's a good functioning system.

And their their offensive line isn't as bad as people think it is.

And Jerry Judy to me, is a great super receiver, especially fantasy football this year.

Speaker 3

This is a deep threat.

Speaker 4

Think he might have fourteen hundred yards last year when they again they had nothing at the quarterback.

Speaker 3

Position last year.

Speaker 4

So Jerry Judy a guy who was a number one pick that Denver up offloaded and he went to the Browns and you've seen the talent spark.

You've not heard a single thing about Jerry ju this offseeas you know why, because he doesn't fuck around and do stupid shit in the offseason.

He just does work.

And he's coming to training camp and he's put in work and apparently him in Flacco had a great connection.

So to me, you know, they've had a lot of the legal issues with this rookie running.

Speaker 3

Back they drafted.

Speaker 4

It looks like it worked out that this kid is going to be okay and be able to play football.

Sure, it might get suspended four games because you know, he did some horrible shit in the NFL.

Even though he's not legally getting charged, the NFL might still punish him.

They still have other guys they drafted.

There's other kids.

Sampson as a rookie.

They have Ford, another running back they could put in there.

Okay, so there's our weapons there.

And now you think about their defense, Chad just nailed it, like this defense might.

Speaker 3

Be really good.

Speaker 4

Like their question for their secondary, they've added pieces of this offseason to the secondary to try to improve it.

And my favorite thing of reading about Eagles joint practice with the Browns was you literally can't practice when Miles Garrett's on the field because he ruined every single play.

You can never run a play with him on the field.

And didn't matter when they had Lane Johnson out there in Malata, he was beating those guys And a lot of joke they were like, hey, Lota, can you take anything away from playing against a guy like Miles Garrett goes no, because he does think that no other human on this planet can do that.

Plays football like no one else can throw me back five feet with one arm while spinning the other way and going around me.

So it's like, you have the guys up front again.

In the draft, they went out and tried to draft guys on the front line again.

They traded down to get more equity for next year because they're they're what the general public things, right.

Their a team that views them as being a bad team.

The front office doesn't have high hopes for this team.

But to me, that's the type teams I like.

Were inside guys like Flack when other guys they believe in this team.

Speaker 3

So there's another team.

Speaker 4

Where it's like, Okay, if you want to bet the win total, I get it, but it's four and a half.

Like they can find four and a half wins with a veteran quarterback and a veteran defense like this and a good head coach.

Like they're even Week one against Cincinnati, I think they're five and a half or six point dog.

We've seen Cincinnati come out slow, and I know they've tried to be playing guys in spring training and so they're up to speed.

Speaker 3

Joe Flackoll might throw for.

Speaker 4

Three hundred and fifty yards against this defense, like they're this might end up being a shootout, and who has the better defense by far, it's going to be this Brown team even get stops, and I feel like a lot of games this year they will be able to get stops defensively and be able to move the ball offensively.

So I know it's gross and it's ugly looking, but I really like the four and a half And I can't be what I'm saying to do it, but you have to because it's thirty to one.

Speaker 3

You have to throw a dollar on this division A lots like you have to do.

Speaker 4

It where there is a world where Lamar, who plays a very aggressive style, does get banged up.

And there is a world where we talked about the Bengals are just not that good of a team in Pittsburgh is maybe a nine win team.

The Browns could get there.

Like I know, people just don't believe them.

It's just hard to squinch your eye and see it.

But it's like if you have a good defense.

If you have a good offensive line and everyone's healthy, that has such a huge advantage end of the season where so many teams are dealing with injuries and injuries to important positions heading into the season, where the Browns really don't have that, Like all the dramas kind of media made up where Dylan Gabriel and Shador they were never gonna be the starters.

They're fighting for that number two jobs.

So I just love how it's lined up in position for this Browns team.

And you know, it's the fact that it's four and a half.

This is a team I'll bet the adjusted total.

I'll adjust to take the six and a half and plus two hundred over, Like that's just a fun bet to make where if I think this team's gonna pop, I think they'll pop to that over.

So yeah, this is a team that was five and a half.

The pros the general public for the most part of bet this down because I think most of them thought it was gonna be Shador or Dylan Gabriel to be the starter.

And now that it's Flacco.

How can you not love this team at four and a half win total, I love the value.

So again, I don't have them grated at like ten wins.

I have them five and a half wins, so it's not crazy.

But I don't think my computer really understands how important is I have a veteran quarterback like Flaco, with a great offensive mind like Stefanski, and again two years ago, this is a duo that made the playoffs.

Speaker 3

Like this is a.

Speaker 4

Taantum that works, and we've seen it work before.

So I just think people are too low on this team for all the scars they had last year, where it's a new year and they're not as bad as people perceive.

Speaker 1

Strong opinion on the Cleveland Browns very strong.

It seems like our best bets are clearly Cleveland Brown's over four and a half the Bengals under nine and a half.

Speaker 2

I also like a Ravens Super Bowl matchup.

Speaker 1

I think probably like Ravens Lions super Bowl matchup.

Bet you know, I'm going to bet Ravens Lions, Ravens Eagles, probably Ravens Niners as part of my Super Bowl matchup round robin.

Do you have a specific team you would match them with?

Speaker 3

Don't hate it, you just you know my feeling about playoff golf.

Yeah, I know, but I don't mind it.

Speaker 4

Like again, I've I have done Ravens Eagles, I've done Ravens forty nine ers, I've done Ravens Rams.

So I'm with you where it's like as much shit as I like talking about Lamar, it's like paying Manning, payon Manning for seven years, couldn't get out of the shadow of Brady and eventually he breaks through.

And it's just it's only a matter of time for josh Alla Lamar as they're in their prime, the talent's there.

Can they show up in the playoffs and the biggest moments and live up to it.

So I'm with you on bet and Ravens futures.

It's like, don't bet them, you know, just to win the Super Bowl's plus six fifty.

Speaker 3

That's a stupid bet.

Bet the matchups people.

Speaker 1

The Favorites will return with our next episode Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube page, where we cover our NFL Best bets for the twenty twenty five NFL season and a college football Week one with our special BBOC Podcasts guests Downlodus from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe, wevi as five stars.

Speaker 2

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