Welcome to the Favorites of the podcast part of the Volume Podcast Network.

I am Chad Noman of the Action Network.

Our division by division betting breakdowns have begun.

We covered the AFC South on Tuesday.

Today we move.

On to the equally important, equally respected, equally beloved also southeastern region of football in the NFL, the NFC South, home of teams and logos nobody outside of the region cares about, but we're going to talk about them because we do think there's betting opportunities to help me do all of that.

Let me bring in my COEs, my companion Michael Padre my BFF Professional Better Simon Hunter.

So I'm hello, Chide, what's going on?

Listen?

You know nothing gets me more sighted and the chance to talk about professional football in the Southeastern United States.

On April twenty fourth, nineteen seventy four, Florida's Tampa Bay area was awarded the NFL's twenty seven franchise.

The official team name was announced as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who've set a standard that any expansion team would be proud to attain.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers do have a quarterback that we love that we both think is top ten in Baker Mayfield.

The Bucks Division odds plus one oh two, Conference odds thirteen to one, Super Bowl twenty eight to one, win.

Total at nine and a half.

Obviously, the biggest factor here is that Liam Cohne, the offensive coordinator, has left to take over as the Jacks coach.

This will be Baker's third offensive coordinator in three years.

We do have Baker's a top ten QB as I said, but do we worry Simon?

A lot of his success last year was predicated on him throwing more screen passes than ever to help him manage pressure, which has always been an issue for Baker.

That man is EPA expected points added on screens was significantly higher, the second highest the past four seasons, behind just Patrick Mahomes.

Also helped him decrease the sacrate.

So the Bucks have won this division for a couple of years running.

Now are we selling the Bucks?

Yeah, it's hard not to want to sell him, right.

It's the same thing where it was last year, where it's like, Okay, you know, that was a great year from Baker, but we expected regression and then he came out and had the best year of his career and We're gonna find out pretty quick, right if it was him or Liam, Like the guy left has now gone to a different team, and we expect things in Jackson well because of that, Right, we really respected his offensive mind and the team did as well, Like they offered him an insane amount of Money's probably gonna be the highest paid offensive coordinator all football, and you know that's that shows the kind of respect he has in this league where he's he's using leverage against his former employee while he's already on that jet to his new team meeting back with the Jaguars.

The whole thing was really scandless, and you know the Baker got dragged into it, right.

They were trying to get Baker to be mad about it, and Baker's like, I love that guy.

Like that was when the best Shaer's ever had.

I loved working with him and you saw them in the field.

And the question for me is, like this win does it catch up too?

Like?

Because that was an insane season by Baker, and that was without Godwin and Mike Evans for large portions of that season.

And they've gone out and they've drafted a new rookie receiver that's got a ton of talent, so they're like, Okay, we're already forward thinking because Mike Evans here is aging out, God wins aging out.

We're already thinking forward.

So now they are easily three to four deep at receiver.

That's a big deal for this team that plans off throwing the ball a lot.

And then we saw Bucky Irving come out of nowhere last year and really take off of there.

So there isn't really questions offensively.

Their real questions to me, is going to be the defense, right because I don't think Baker's have the type of aerarhead last year like naturally, I think there's gonna be some regression there.

It's is this defense good enough again and to keep doing what they've been doing, which is one of the best dominant defense aginst the run and we know Vi Devey, but there's a lot of other pieces of that defense that's really come to check.

But their secondary has.

Been horrible, Like they are a bad secondary, and lucky for them, this division there just has not been a challenger.

Right.

It feels like, you know, I mean, I'm not saying it's Matt Ryan was the greatest quarterback ever, but he dominated this division for a long time, and then Tom Brady came in, and after he left, Baker's kind of taking it over.

And it's been kind of funny where I mean, me and you finally came round.

We both put them our top ten, but I mean we really didn't take Baker serious.

It took a while for us to get there.

So I get that, I get the number, but like, do you want to bet plus one oh two on this team?

I really don't.

And I'm having a tough time ticking their win toal just because again it's another team that it's not a brutal start to the year, but it's not an easy one either, Like they have a first place schedule, they have some tough games.

But this is, to me, the best team.

They are the best team in their division.

I'm just not crazy about the odds.

I wish they were a little better, just because you know, we're about to dive into it.

Like people are really loving this Atlanta team, so I thought these odds would be closer.

But you know, that's that's the that's the respect Baker's getting this team, so it's earned.

But to me, our jobs value base, I'm just not gonna be touched on number nine and a half.

I have them right at ten wins.

Another team that's like, I'm gonna am I gonna force the over here, because I do think they'll get to ten and seven, nine and eight.

They just feel like that's team.

They have that much talent.

It's just it's just hard to get there where you like, we're about to talk about the Elections Division.

There's better value to me, but I get the respect again A plus one oh two.

By the way, Mecca Abuka was the first round pick the received Ohio State who they've added, and look, they've got challenges all across the board.

Like you said, that secondary is pretty bad.

I mean, the only thing they have going for them is that there isn't a dominating defense in this division.

So anytime they're playing anyone in the division, you have the potential because you have Baker, because you have Mike Evans, because you have Bucky Irving, you've got the potential to points on the board and steel wins in the division.

As much as we sort.

Of don't like any of these teams, the games are going to be lights out.

Think about some of these games in the NFC South last year, the Panthers made so many games so exciting.

The Saints earlier in the year games exciting, the Falcons made games exciting, The Bucks made games exciting because they're not quite good enough to put teams away.

None of them are, and so nine and a half wins to me, just feels like too many.

You're gonna be sweating that, and there's no reason to grasp it.

It feels like it's overinflated because Baker had the year that he had, because the team is clearly the consensus favorite in this division.

Zero value, your priced out of the market.

There's just no upside embedding this team in any of these things.

Right now, you're smiling at.

Me, Yeah, I just and like you're breaking down here, but it's just very telling.

Where we just did the AFC South, now we're doing the FC South.

No team in either divisions or ten wins and both, like both these divisions are the lowest win totals of the season because they're such bad teams.

But like you talked about, these are awful teams.

When they play to their own division, the games are always wonking and tight, and that's really true NFC South.

So I know it's very you look at that nine and a half, You're like in their own division, like they should steamroll the Saints, right we at best case scenario, maybe they split with the Panthers and you know Atlanta.

So it's like you look at them and you're just saying, well, those are easy wins.

How do they not get to the other four and a half five wins?

I get why it's.

So so enticing, but it's just it's hard year to year and to know that these type of wins are gonna be in the division, right, it's just so fluky up and down.

So it's it's a good number once again, another really sharp number by the book.

Like I think they really hung a good number here because I think a general public are gonna going and bet this one, and professionals will take the under.

Oh I one hundred percent believe the public is going to bet this over.

Yeah, they're gonna They're gonna play the over.

They're gonna hit the plus one h two because, by the way, they're gonna see a plus number and think what I can get the bucks for the plus number to run their division when they've been dominating that division for so many years and nobody else really improved.

Of course, the public is gonna bet the Bucks in both scenarios, but we're not, No Simon, We're not gonna do it.

Will we bet the Atlanta Falcons.

The Atlanta Falcons were typified by the players who consistently made the big play.

Which.

Falcons plus two thirty to win the division, thirty five to one to win the conference, seventy to one to win the Super Bowl, the win total at seven and a half.

I mean, are you gonna you can go first?

I know you have.

You have some love here, a little bit of love for Michael Pennox.

I want to hear you break it down.

I do.

I do, and it's it's forcing me to want to take the over on this team.

My feeling on Penics is basically I think we know what he is right And look, I loved Penix.

I've been following him long before he was in the NFL, long before he was at Washington.

He was the quarterback at Indiana.

He was great in Indiana.

You think back to the COVID years when Indiana had a little bit of a run, it was because of Michael Pennix before he was injured.

That's what got them into sort of contention in the Big Ten for that one season.

And he's not a guy who's going to go off script.

He's not a guy who's going to make plays for you when things break down.

But he is a guy who can perform.

Very well, maybe even elite, when he's on schedule and has good protection for a QB with a minimum of one hundred dropbacks.

Last year, only Lamar Jackson had a better EPA Expected points added from a clean pocket than Michael Pennix.

Fantastic, and the Falcons will know that, so will level of their team Right now?

Can the Falcons game plan to that?

We know they have Drake London, we know they have Bijeon, we know they have Kyle Pitts.

We know they have talent that might be used differently with someone like Michael Pennix than it would have been with Kirk Cousins or predecessors Desmond Ritter.

But how much of that can they really.

Mandate control when everybody in the league knows that, because if the production does break down, he cannot create on his own and the whole thing falls apart.

And while the Falcons have had elite run blocking for several years, they're past blocking and just is mediocre to straight bad.

It's all on Penix and I'm gonna believe and.

We'll see, because they did lose arguably their best offensive piece to the Bears.

They lost their center, so you know that's a big deal.

But the one thing I'll say about that he was injured a lot last year, and so, like I was thinking about this as I was trying to calculate the guy.

What's that they were bad last year?

Right?

But what my point is, he was injured a lot last year.

So whatever Pennis was doing last year to show progress and success in a clean pocket, he's doing with probably the same people that he'll be doing it with this year because the other guy with the backup was playing so much.

And I was gonna say, it's just hard to take a lot away from Penis.

Where he came in.

I think he had what eight hundred yards, three touchdowns, and three picks, Like it's really nothing.

There was nothing really there when you go back and watch a tape, Yes, he did make nice stars, but like you said, if you get him off.

His spot, he was bad.

He was really bad when you took him off a spot and his feet, you know, it's it's it's a knock on him, right.

His footwork is not the best when you get him off because he could throws off balance, which you don't want him to do because he's not the arm power like that.

So you know, this is a team that I don't know what they're gonna be because their defense was so insanely lucky last season in many ways where I always go back to the coaching, Like coaching has a lot to do with luck in defenses, right, I mean the Vikings are the great example ever of that with Flores, like you can take a little bit of talent because we always talk the difference between the best linebacker middle linebacker and football and the fifth best middle linebacker on football.

Sure it's pretty big, but the best fifth line backround football on the twenty fifth.

It's very small.

And these coaches, they are the ones that make such a big difference on these middle middle level guys.

So with the.

Falcons, their defense to me is bad, and I do have major questions about their offensive line.

But like you said, when we talk about these teams, well, I get why you're taking this jump in on this Falcons team with Penix the quarterback is the year two bump like the guy who they don't have much tape on, but you see the good and if he can just grow on that and get better, like we just said, if he can find better move in the pocket, he gets better at throwing off balance.

Like I heard, he's been doing the same type of training that Mahomes has been doing, which is like he throws off one leg and does like all these training different exercise throwing off balance and working on his lower body.

That to me is gonna be a big step for Penick.

So for a team that has a ton of upside with the unknown, I get why you're doing it because, like Penix comes in, if he is just able to be a competent quarterback something the fout because I've not had since Matt Ryan, he could change out all offense because they have all the weapons like Drake London Stud like Robinson Stud and Kyle Pitts.

We don't know, he's never had a quarterback.

So I'm with you.

I like the pieces there.

I get why you're going with it.

But there's another team this division I love more.

So that's why I'm just not all in with you.

I get where you're coming from.

I did bet their win total.

I have him at eight and a half.

The win total seven and a half, obviously a full game to the over.

I'll take that over on the win just because of this division.

Like the way this division shakes out, it just feels like I'm I can't see what Chad seeing here is like them in the Bucks, we could both see them being nine and eight, ten and seven fighting like they were last year and last year that Atlanta did it without a quarterback.

So yeah, major upgrade to them.

If Penis can take that next.

Step, dude, you have it at eight and a half.

The totals at seven and a half.

Of the teams we've talked about so far between the AFC South and the Nancy South, that's the biggest discrepancy.

You haven't had.

A Tennessee was seven, So they were they were a game and a half.

But that's fair, you know, I know it's the Penix thing.

I've been watching tons of Penis.

The Tennessee was five and a half.

I hadn't met seven wins, okay, but yeah, like I just I'm with you.

I've been watching a ton of Penix day because to me, I loved him in college so much like you know a Duneesa is a great receiver.

He he obviously.

Helped the quarterback and what Penix did, but it was also Penix, like he put up some of his passes as touch passes are incredible.

So I'm not disagreeing with the talents there, and obviously my model believes in this team.

I'm just so hesitant o it because it's like I watch them on field and I see so many bad habits, and then when I dive into how lucky their defense was and how it overperformed so much last year, it's hard to get there.

It's like because last year, again they just had random wins.

They stole, like they beat the Eagles in Week two on a two minute drive by Kirk Cousins.

You can't predict those things.

So it's like those ones are tough when you're diving into their games last year and how they won some and then you know how they fell off a cliff once Kirk kind of couldn't get it right right once defense is realized he can't move in the pocket, it was over for Atlanta.

So is that gonna be the same problem here?

Chat with Penix, Like that's the fear is if they have another quarterback that can't move well in the pocket.

Every game, he's just gonna be facing five rushers.

It's just it's what it's gonna be.

So with an offensive line that is not great at past blocking, So that's the fear.

Totally get it, totally fair, totally get it.

You mentioned there's another team.

I feel a lot.

More strongly about bets related to our next two teams then I do about the Falcons and the Bucks.

So let's dig in on the Carolina Panthers.

The loves of our lives.

Plus three ninety to win the division, fifty to one to win the conference, one hundred and twenty to one to win.

The Super Bowl.

Win total six and a half.

In the final nine games of the year, the Carolina Panthers went seven and two against the spread, including four outright wins.

Reminder, we were so bullish on the Panthers.

We talked about the Panthers so much in the preseason, and then they went out and totally shit the bed and made us look terrible for the first eight weeks of the season.

What happened?

How did they turn it around?

Bryce Young had been injured, comes back, really kind of has nothing to lose at this point, because in his first twenty or so games he's been one of the worst first round quarterbacks, top overall quarterbacks who's ever been drafted.

He went from being so bad amongst the worst in the NFL to middle of the pack that, like any movement in his improvement made him look like.

A viable starter.

But to me, the key, and we talked a lot about this last year.

You could see it on the field, his decision making, Like he started scrambling to extend plays.

He's already incredibly accurate.

His scramble rate jumped from twenty five percent to forty percent forty seven percent.

And this wasn't because his offensive line is terrible.

It's actually top ten, top fifteen offensive line.

It was him moving around in the pocket to make plays and then using his accuracy on the run.

He'd keep his eyes downfield, he wasn't looking at rushers, and he was making plays that helped them stay in the game.

Third down completions, fourth down completions.

He just got better.

Can we see that?

Can we see that from Bryce Young this year?

Yeah, it's like you just broke it down.

It was incredible.

He was playing himself out of the league.

It was over, right, And what did Andy Dolton do to He cut his hand or was he in a car accident?

Something happened with Andy Dalton?

Yeah, like something fluky.

It wasn't like.

And that's why he got his job back.

Right.

It wasn't like Andy Dalton was ever going to links just relinquish this job.

No, Bryce Young was done.

It was over.

And you know, we talk all the time how football it's it's so heavily mental.

That's why all these guys got sports therapists, right, They're constantly working on their brain and their mind, and it's it's really become a forefront the last ten years of how mental, how important the mental aspect of the football game is.

And you the best example is Bryce.

Young, Like he was miserable, like apparently it was just dead inside.

I mean you would be too.

His first game, I believe he threw like two picks.

It was a train wreck to start the season.

And just kept getting worse and worse every week.

And we got caught, like Chad is talking about, like this is a classic case of believing too much into a model and not what you're seeing in front of you.

And I kept saying, but my models, telling me this is a bad number and this team is way better than their performing did not make sense.

And then sure enough, once he came back, like you said, they went seven to two, that's when it made sense, where it's like, oh, this is what my model is seen.

When he puts it together and plays within the offense, he's good.

Like when he's accurate.

They do have they did have pieces there around him.

And now they've gone out and drafted a wide receiver, which to me was the biggest deal because you know, as much as we love Bryce Young, his number one receiver is out and feeling like feeling.

He was supposed to be.

These are his sunset years.

He's down there getting ready for retirem.

He's not supposed to be the number of receiver the Panthers, And he was his most trusted receiver.

Bryce anytime on a big third down, that's who he trusted because he knew he would run the he would run the right route, and he would even if the window was crazy small, he would.

Give him a window.

He'd always have that window.

The fact that they went out and got a receiver with a top ten pick, it's a huge deal and you know, the the offense.

You know, to me, it's not my question when I'm betting this team.

I have this team at eight wins, so six and a half.

Chad knows.

I liked that number a lot divisional odds.

You know, wish it was plus four fifty like it was earlier, and it's down a plus four hundred and three to ninety at Some books still love it, still think it's good value, but it's tough that it's been bet down because the pros are the same view as us.

It's like, if he did take that next step and they've spent money on on some of these peace offensive line of defense, this should be a good team.

But that's that's what the unknown is here is this defense.

Like they were so criminally bad last year, this defense that even the games they were in they got totally thrown out because it's like you're asking Bruce Shung, you have to put up thirty five, thirty thirty eight points in a game.

It's just like they don't have the offensive weapons to do that.

So that to me is our big fear here, Chazz.

We're betting a team that they might have even worse defense than the Saints.

Which we're gonna get into the Saints about being a train wreck, but this that's a true statement that Panthers might have the worst defense in this division.

So that, to me is what I'm really looking forward to in camp, seeing what I'm gonna see from a defense.

You know, the it's not so such a preseason games now, I've learned my lesson that it really is about the team practices when they when they practice with other teams.

That film has been really valuable.

They when they have practice against other teams and you see what type of defensive sets they're trying to run.

So it's definitely a team Panthers.

I'm gonna dive more into their defense during this preseason, but right now as we stand here, I'm just so infatuated with their offense.

I just trusted so much that, yeah, I have to have to take the divisional odds.

So look, the receiver they drafted in the first round was that kid McMillan from Arizona, And.

You know, a lot of people, I don't know enough about him.

To weigh in and whether or not he's going to be impactful, added value whatever it's going to be.

Certainly if Adam Thielen was his top target.

Bryce Young's you need to find an improvement there.

Agree with you.

This defense was just shredded, right, and even when they started to get guys back from injury, they never got very good.

And it's what made it.

It was what made every Carolina Panthers bet so heart pounding.

The fact that they did win for those last nine games that they also covered the spread in is encouraging, but a lot of that was on Bryce Young.

They have the seventh easiest strength of schedule per Vegas win totals.

I'm so glad to hear me hear you say that you like the Panthers as a division long shot or at least over that six and a half win total, because like, that's just blaring the wind total.

To me, is the real play for this team, because that is a blaring discrepancy in the market.

But then again, you know, we could be falling into a trap.

We could.

But the thing I love the most about their schedule is it is brutal how late they're buys their bye week.

I believe it's not until week fourteen or fifteen, like something crazy late like that.

When you look at their schedule, lay it ends is they end New Orleans, Tampa and then Tampa again when the last game of season.

I think Seattle's thrown in the middle there somewhere, so they get to face Tampa twice in the final three weeks.

That's a big deal when we're.

Ben win totals, right, because Tampa if they do win this division somehow like they did last year, and they got a game out and they don't need it, that's a huge throwaway for us the end of the season.

And even better.

If we're in this spot for Carolina stealle this division.

They're facing the divisional leader most likely too out of the last three weeks.

That's how you steal the season, right, That's how you make it happen.

So to me, when I have a young team like they are, inexperienced, I want that type of thing.

I don't want them facing the Bucks early in the year.

I want them faced the end of the year where you could coach these guys up and have them in them a rhythm.

Where we saw it last year, This Panthers team got better as a season went along.

That's so you know you have a good coaching staff.

So that that was something that jumped out to me last year that I knew going to this year, I was gonna keep drinking the cool lady.

Like the way they finished what'd you say, seven and two against the.

Spread right away I wins?

Yeah, like really impressive stuff.

So you know, we we we might get a little lucky here with the way the schedule makers did it, where that that final three weeks facing the Bucks twice could be a game changer for this team.

Well, look, I think they're opening game against the Jags, and so we're going to learn a lot even in that opening week.

How close can we get to that six and a half win total.

It's gonna be a tough play for us because we love betting on the Jags and we love betting on the Panthers.

So what are we gonna do, Matt Mitchell when we post this Q the conspiracy music?

Because I have one right here, Simon, you just said something really interesting to me.

The end of the season, they get the Bucks two of the last three weeks.

The NFL has made a really concerted effort the past several years to backload the division matchups, So there is something exciting that happens at the end of the season where division races could be in play.

Right to me, this is the NFL saying we think the Panthers are really the team that could have the best shot at knocking off the Bucks.

By the way they're scheduling.

This script is written my friend.

I wish it was so.

I don't know if the Panthers are on the schedule makers radar yet, right, They probably do that the top fourteen, top sixteen teams, and then they they're probably throwing like two major markets like Chicago and some of their major market.

That's who.

That's who the schedules they dictate the the these NFC South foes, they just throw them in a blender.

They make them their schedule match the real team.

So I view this as luck like they got really lucky to meet chat where that's that's exact scenario they needed, right, facing them three twice in the last three weeks, that's a huge deal to me for this Panthers team, just because if they would face them, like we said, if they started the season opening at the Bucks, Okay, you already own one against the division, against the top dog in the division, that would be a guaranteed loss, right them going down face Baker in Tampa Week one.

So to me, they caught a nice break then said they're going down a floor.

They're going to Jacksonville.

Like that's a much much nicer start to the season.

They're heading down to Tampa.

So yeah, like you said, there's a lot conspiracy.

I agree with you a little bit.

I think they did do the Panthers some favorites in some ways, But that to me is insane.

The luck of the time, I will not stand for Carolina Panther an NFC South disrespect.

Who talks that way about one of the eight divisions in the NFL.

They all deserve our equal respect.

They are all.

Worthy of being challenging division races.

At the end, at the end, they capture our attention.

These are teams in the National Football League.

They all matter.

Simon who says stuff like that, this guy, Well, one of the teams that maybe shouldn't be in the NFL is the New Orlands Saints.

What do you think about the Saints?

They are fourteen to one to win the division, in one hundred and fifty to one to win the conference, four hundred to one to win the Super Bowl, longest odds of any team in the NFL to win the Super Bowl longer than the Cleveland Browns, Jermaine, because the win total for the Saints is five and a half.

And this is what's interesting to me.

Last year the Pats.

Were three hundred to one and had a season win total of four and a half.

The Panthers were two fifty to one and had a season win total of five and a half.

Even the Browns at four and a half wins are at three hundred to one.

When you think about that, when you hear that as better, what is that signaling to you?

Because it is signaling something to me.

I mean, it's simple not that the sports book are begging anybody coming a dollar on this team if willing to in a positive way, so that that, to me, is the signal there.

That's just all negative money right now in the Saint It's nothing positive to me.

The signal is bet the under five and a half.

Yeah, right, that's ultimately what it's saying.

Like they're desperate for the money at four hundred to one, But why would they put their number at five and a half.

That's what doesn't make sense to me.

It feels like they've inflated this number and I can't I can't figure out why.

Really weird, I agree with you, This to me feels like a number though.

If this kid Shuck comes out and he's just dog shit in this preseason, this will go to four and a half, like they will have to move it if he's just that terrible.

You know, this.

Football is a weird sport, right where it's like this, this is the type of team.

They have enough veterans across the board that if he comes in he's just comparable at the correct position, they could steal some games.

Right with Kamar, especially in the backfield, there is a path there.

But I've gone and watched this kids.

Film and he is so raw and bad and injury prone, and then you look at the guys behind him.

It feels like a full on reset without them saying it's a full on reset.

And you don't get that much on football, right, but you have to when you're a team that spent your money in the worst way on bad players along contracts, And it's basically all these backloaded years from the Drew Brees era catching up to them, right.

It's it's just.

Been the really brutal in the books, the money they've they've allocated these different players.

So yeah, this was a game.

I mean, this was a line right away.

When I saw it open up, I jumped on the under and I'm like you, I.

Was just like, am I the fish here?

Is?

Is this too easy?

Because it's I didn't get the five and a half hanging that number either.

I just I didn't know what.

The book's models giving them back to even think they could get the six wins this season, because that's hard, Like when you don't have anything at the quarterback position and anything behind it, that is really hard to steal games.

Like if you if they had Joe Flacco there, I might have hesitation.

Honestly, I know it sounds stupid, but if they had a comparable veteran quarterback, just because they have so many good veterans on the team, it would give me.

Paul as cheb I think you, I and the public and most professional vetters are all the view of this is just a team much like the Giants that you know, they don't mind to tank the season because in their minds there's a great group of quarterbacks coming out next year and it's a good time to reset.

If you're an organization like the Saints in a division that you.

Know, all these teams say what you want.

They have their quarterbacks for the most part, right the team Bryce Young, it's his team for now.

You know, the Bucks obviously have their quarterback, and we think Michael Pennox will be the Atlantis quarterback.

They they don't have any identity right now the Saints.

So I think that's why.

I mean, you're both so confident in this one.

And there's always going to be the scenario of the vikings like last year, right, there's always that randomness that if a quarterback can come in and just shock a team and breathe life into it.

Nothing I've seen from this kid Shuck has done that.

Chet Like even the stuff I'm reading Abouttle, it's just growing pain after growing pain, after picked the linebacker, after picked in the cornerback, and practice.

It's just a steep, steep learning curve for someone like him.

Was a hell a lot of reps in college because of injuries and other factors too.

You are now in the NFL at playing at the highest level, and you're supposed to be the leader of this team.

I think it's just a lot to ask of a kid like this.

So yeah, I think we're in sink here.

It's one of my favorite bets, the under Saints five and a half.

It's Tyler Shock spelled s s h o u g h but pronounced shock as in oh fuck, this guy's our quarterback.

Yeah, and I'll throw a little another little conspiracy at you.

Ready.

I love it, Okay, ruling Saints clearly.

Not not being aggressive to get quarterbacks, to get quality competition, like you said, so many salary cap issues that here.

We go the coward take.

I don't know what's I don't know.

I don't know what the coward take.

Is about the Archie Manning.

Oh my god, that's what I was gonna say.

Yeah, did he say that already?

I'm almost positive I saw one of his clips on my YouTube pop up from the volume.

Oh my god, I thought I was like, I thought it was so far ahead of it.

No, I'm I'm with it.

I'm with you guys though, Like it's I've the expectations Archie man Yeah, but he might not even come out this year, Like he's right, that's what someone just say.

He might have come I don't I don't know if he'll come out this year.

But if he lights it up, why would he not come out.

Like he lights it up.

Yeah, he's got and he's guaranteed, you know, as much as anything's a guarantee to be the number one overall pick and go to the scene and the Saints have the number one overall pick.

I would love for his dad to be like, no, you're going back to college.

You ain't going yeah, New Orleans.

That's why we love sports, because there is symmetry and poetry and romance, and we can all get behind these stories because that is when we are at our happiest.

Who doesn't want a great family story about Arch Manning going to the Saints, revitalizing the team, bringing back joy to his hometown city, doing what his grandfather couldn't do as the number one overall pick of the same exact team.

That is poetry.

That's fucking Dylan Thomas shit right there.

Also, I love the thought of we were I think two weeks into the season last year, the Saints were two and oh, and there are people coming on different TV shows, different airwaves saying, bet the Saints to win the NFC, bet them to win the division.

This is a different team.

They have all the pieces, So I think of how far they've come from that two and oh start to where we're at right now, horebably the worst team in football.

It just NFL comes at you so fast, that can change so much.

It's just I feel for this franchise obviously.

You know Drew Brees left, Schean Payton left and left you holding the bag, right with all these guys, you need to just blow it all up and reset.

You have a lot of veterans on the team that you know, they're playing out their contracts at the end, it's all coming to an end.

This is going to be a two three four year rebuild.

Like, they have so much work to do.

So that's the weird thing about them.

That's why the books hung this at five and a half, because they do have enough veteran talent that if this kid Shuck comes in, he's good.

This could hit to me like me and chat just talking about I think the books are way off the mark here.

I just everything I've s from this kid.

He is not the answer to their problems right here.

He's just naturally You see it right away.

With some of these guys coming in like they can read the field or they just have the god given ability.

He has neither right now, so just it just feels like dark days ahead.

And I would tell you to grab the five and a half now because I could see this going to four and a half after a couple of preseason games.

This has Chris Wanky vibes written all over it.

I agree.

Do you remember Chris Wanky?

Were you old enough for Chris Wanky?

Yeah?

Was he Florida?

Chris Wanky was Florida State, had played baseball, got drafted as a very old dude, went to the Panthers.

They put the ball in his hands and immediately with.

George Seffert, I think went one in fifteen.

That's brutal, And you know you feel bad for these guys, right he's twenty five.

Everyone like any other time, like twenty.

Five always too old.

But they're playing that office maturity and it's a it's a hard spot to step into with an very good team with a new coach who probably knows, Hey, we're looking to play for next season, so do the best you can this year.

We're going to give it to you.

It could be a very very tough road.

Favorite Bets, I feel like you and I are pretty aligned.

I made a list of my three favorite and I think they correspond directly with yours.

I just don't know if they're in the same order.

So you go first.

Yeah, my favorite bets would be Panthers over six and a half, Saints under five and a half, and then the Panthers Division plus four hundred.

I just to me, that's the best value where you know, we'll talk right before the season.

I'll give it a couple of parlays.

I'll probably throw the Bucks into one.

But as we're saying right now, I don't have a single dollar invest in that Bucks team and they win total Super Bowl odds any of it.

I'm just I don't know.

I hate that I'm so skeptical of this team, but I just can't help it.

There's just so many questions right now what they're going to be like with all the turnover at the offensive coordinator position.

I had Saints under five and a half, Panthers over six and a half, uh, and then I had Falcons plus two thirty.

I just couldn't get there on the Panthers to win the division.

I know it's the better value.

It's a little bit like the Titans play right, Like why invested short numbers when.

Even after my old Bucks playing the Bucks twice in the last three weeks.

You know, and now I think I'm rethinking it.

Yeah, so fuck it.

I'm with you, my man.

Give me the panthers on it.

They're a little little guy on it, a little shekels.

Yeah, a little couple of win forty.

Let's go party, Let's go all right.

That was good.

That was good.

We're down.

We've we've done.

We've done the Southeastern teams, We've done the AFC South, We've now done the NFC South.

The Favorites will return with our next episode Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube page.

Also subscribe at Real Chad Millman.

We're gonna cover our next NFL division preview downloads from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate and review, subscribe, leave us fot stars.

Say whatever you want.

Feedback is a gift until next time, Love you.

Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler