Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume and Podcast Network.

I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.

Lots of conversations to have about life and the NFL.

Today, let's welcome in my co host, my companion, Michael Padre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter.

Heato.

So I'm in Chad.

How are we doing?

Dude?

You and I could not be on more opposite ends of the spectrum of life.

What I thought about multiple times this past weekend when you were sending us a picture of your whole crew which did not need to make much of an effort to look exactly like Fred Durst from Limp Biscuit at your bachelor party this weekend, while I was managing so much family stuff and the end of having kids at home, please tell me, please give me like the highlight of something fun.

I mean, there was a lot of I mean, they're just it was just stupid as shit.

I mean from the get gostupid.

I literally get there and one of the guys I'm staying with his car is getting about to get towed like the literally the truck is backing up the tote and I had to tell the guy, hey, that's my car, because I saw the kid had Delaware Rugby stickers on the back of it.

So it was a bunch of you Dell rugby kids ten years later in Dewey Beach, so they.

Were all reliving their glory days and it.

Was Chad's old the picture.

It was like thirty guys, all different walks of life, all real characters, but they're all connected through one person.

Obviously that's what a bachelor party is.

So it was like his childhood buddies, his college buddies.

And yeah, my first time really doing Dewey Beach.

The bar scene's the best way I can describe.

Again, I'm old now, so like there's milts, which are people my age, and then above and then like young twenty year old who didn't know who Fred Durst was and was like, why are thirty you all dressed so weird?

All these guys run up to one bar all over.

But yeah, I'd say the funniest memory was again I'm an old man.

I go to bed early, and I'm woking up probably every half hour because people are coming back.

So again I'm a light sleeper.

At four four thirty in the morning, it sounds like someone just got thrown through a wall in the apartment above me.

Like, so we run out the bottom and the top part of the apartment and all you hear is just ship breaking, like insanity.

And again I went checked the kitchen make sure no one through the floor, because that's how loud it was.

We wake up the next morning.

I looked like a bomb went off upstairs.

It was just three guys fighting.

Yeah, just again, not fighting like you think, like, just guys being guys.

Yeah, resumes pretending they're in a hockey fight.

Yeah, and he's suplex the guy and the guy could barely walk and it's like, you guys are all in your thirties, what's going on?

So uh yeah, what exactly you would think it would go with the rugby guys from U Dell at Dewey Beach ten years later.

So yeah, it was a great time.

It was a great crew, really funny group.

Ah Like yeah, it sounds amazing.

Yeah, No, it was like I can't keep up.

I like, even with them, I can't keep up.

But you forget about the old days, right, You just go to the beach.

You start drinking at eleven am, and you drink all day, you eat all day, go out to bars.

And restaurants all day, all night, and it's just like, damn man, those were the good days.

No worries.

You're just boozing and eating and it's warm and sunny out.

So yeah, I enjoyed it.

But like I said, the whole time we just talked football.

It's like it's just on the tip of everyone's tongue.

So I was like enjoying it.

In the back of mind the whole time, I'm just like, can I watch this Browns game on my phone in this bar right now and not be judged because I just want to watch standards.

So yeah, it was fun going out with everyone, but also always football chat football.

By the way, the last time I really did what you talked about, which is starting to eat and drink at eleven am and just going all night was spring break my senior year of college, when we are maybe my junior year of college and my sophomore year of college, when we went to Panama City, Florida, and there were like fifteen of us.

Your Girl's Gone Wild video.

I have to now go through my collections if I can see Chad.

We like drove from Bloomington, Indiana to Panama City.

We started eating and drinking so early.

I don't think I was hungry or sober for six days.

Yeah I gained on that trip.

You know what I look like?

Yeah, I gained thirteen pounds.

Because you probably didn't go to the bathroom once.

That's how funny your bals got.

I had a picture of me from that trip, and I'm like, my face looked like a basketball.

I can't even picture of fat Chad.

That's how I'll go to shape you are.

I came to visualized you see it.

That was the last time.

Meanwhile, I am going through the throes of emotion that come from the final days having a kid in the house before he goes to college, our youngest kid of the two, and we like have been doing stuff and I'm realizing, holy shit, we're sixteen days away from this now.

Last week we went to the Red Sox game.

He had never been Fenway, and we at some point every summer I did this with my other kid too, would go somewhere just the two of us.

And this is the last one, you know, before he goes to college.

We're driving up to the game.

I'm like in tears four or five different times recognizing this, he never looks up from his phone.

It's fine.

This weekend, I made him watch the Bear's preseason game with me, even though like he was dying to get out of the house and go to the gym.

I'm like, guy, first half, just sit with me.

We're gonna do it like I'm envisioning.

So my texting him during the Bears games now non.

Stop, like we were watching the Cubs a little bit.

I'm like last night, I'm like, so, how am I gonna do this when he's not sitting next to me.

I don't even know how I'm gonna function.

And you know how last week, like I told you, my wife actually asked me about points spreads.

This week she came downstairs in an old school favorite T shirt that has cartoon caricatures of you and I on the back.

And then I realized why she's doing it.

She's not doing it because like she knows I'll be miserable when our son leaves the house.

It's because she knows I'm the only one left.

That's it.

It's me and the dog.

And right now the dog is on my side.

I am totally the dog's person.

So like my wife is realizing, oh no, she's going to be home alone with us.

I better start showing my husband I like him again after twenty two years of having kids in the house.

That's where it's coming from.

Melbourn, hold on one of the biggest story that or she's about to get another dog.

You don't even know it.

It's entirely possible.

That is possible, by the way, all right.

You mentioned football today as our annual Division by division NFL preview episode on the AFC East, home of the league's MVP Josh Allen, its most bettable coach and Mike Vrabel, its most disgruntled wide receiver in Tyreek Hill, the franchise with the whiniest fan base, the New York.

Jets, at the request.

Of longtime listener Mike Schiffman, at least, I think.

I think that's how you say his name.

I'm kidding.

I'm adding which divisions the AFC East plays both in its own conference and in the NFC.

The AFC East plays this year, the NFC South and the AFC North.

Simon, We're gonna start with the Buffalo Bills Division minus two, seventy five Conference plus three twenty five Super Bowl plus seven hundred win total eleven and a half.

There is no division that has a bigger disparity between the odds on favorite and anyone else in the division.

You said this last week you love the Bills.

I will say I went through the schedule to find twelve wins.

They open with Baltimore, then they have the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Patriots, Falcons, Panthers.

So they obviously get the Jets, Miami and the Patriots two times each, plus they have the Browns.

I might be inclined to wait until after six or seven weeks and then see how their season win total is and maybe try and bet it then before I dive in right now.

Are you a non believer, Chad?

Is that what you're saying?

Well, I'm not a non believer, but.

I think Josh Allen last year obviously had the best year he's ever had, and I think there were some factors that helped him along the way.

Specifically, as much as he was brilliant when he was running the ball and they developed sort of a tush push strategy, his receivers averaged more than a yard more after the catch than at any point in his career.

And I remember watching last year, how.

Many times did his guys get open and then get yardage that they needed to make the game shift untilt in their direction.

That's as big a factor as anything.

So and I don't don't.

I just don't know if their defense is good enough yet, Like and so, last year to me was as good as they could possibly be.

Can they be better?

They can be one of the two three best teams in the AFC, but is that going to be good enough?

That's why I'm not like all in yet.

I'm shocked.

Yeah, I would say, of all the teams that are safe, bet this feels like the safest.

That's why the odds are what they are.

Professionals came in and hit this as soon as they opened it, and it was really.

Based off the guess of what the schedule would be.

And then once the schedule came out, this number really moved up because it kind of laid out perfect for them.

They do have a very easy schedule.

So that's why I wouldn't wait.

If I'm gonna bet this, Like, if I'm betting their win total, I'll take it eleven and a half, No problem.

Gives the shit.

It's like pizza baby, It's good no matter, there's the shout yeah, shouting out, it's a good time, you know what I mean, rubbing up against each other, trying to make it honest.

I get it.

Their divisional lodge is high.

So we've talked about like I put them in parlays.

But I don't know if you're getting lost a little bit, but we I definitely got lost in it last year where I took josh Allen's talent for granted.

And I can't believe I even thought the Jets or anyone else in the division had a chance all this.

I don't think anyone has a chance.

I know that.

I'm just saying, like overall this is this is lined up for them this season.

Like you said, there's questions on the defense, of course, like that's that's going to be their weakness because he doesn't play defense.

The MVP is not on defense.

They have holes on defense, and they're older in some places.

So I get the skepticism, but it's all josh Awen.

That's why you asked me if they could be cursed from the hard knocks, and it's like the Bills there they are the curse, like the losing four straight Super Bowl as I told you.

They just this fan base can't be phased by the bullshit of hard knocks, and Josh Allen, I joke to you he is doing an absurd amount of therapy in the offseason because he's ero and four against Mahomes in the playoffs and he knows.

He is better than he is better than Mahomes.

We all know this.

But again, I had him at three, you had him at two.

We all put Homes above him because he wins when it matters, like cool, Josh Allen MVP last year, Matt Mitchell didn't go to a parade in Buffalo.

No one did because there isn't one.

They don't matter and MVP is cool.

And that was my whole point with the whole QB rankings is we've gone too far with the stats.

And Josh Allen knows that where it's his stats, he likes it.

He likes win an MVPs.

But he even watched the hard Knocks.

I love how he is just so he knows the deal.

It's all bullshit, like he wants to see people slam through tables in February, rotting down Buffalo's main street with all the fans.

So I'm with you that you can have skepticism on this team further win total and you can try to go against it, but I'm not going to overthink it.

I'll go over and I would be shocked if turn out the one or two.

See the way their schedule lines up in their division, like we're about the dive of their division here.

The only way it.

Doesn't work out is if he gets hurt, Like if he's healthy, at best, he's losing one home game.

Josh Allen just does not lose home games, like he is just a different beast at home and even on the road.

We saw last year that was his biggest step up as he's not doing those super turnovers like him and Joe Brady.

It's another year together.

So yeah, this is a team you can tell like I am on.

I'm all in on them, like them the Chiefs.

They are the only teams I've taken positions.

On in the AFC for Super Bowl.

And Josh Allen's so good that he makes me break a rule, which I know it's a dumb rule, but I usually don't put a high amount of money to teams organizations that never won Super Bowls before.

NFL is really weird where teams that have won before in the past or whatever, they tend to repeat teams have never won before.

I don't know why, they just they don't win.

Like we've seen it time and time again.

The same organizations.

I mean, you can just go back to the last ten years and look at the repeats.

It's it's the same organizations are always in the super Bowl.

But with the talent level they have, Chad, the money they've spent on their young talent, of their defense, I do think with the coaching staff they have, and this is like, this is a true attend to this division.

So and then the not just the division of the league.

So yeah, minus two seventy five, Chad News I've bet that straight up.

Yeah, if someone out there you're making one divisional bet and you want to go safe, go for it, like you're probably not gonna lose your money unless Josh Allen gets hurt.

But again, there's too much risk for me with that with injuries that I'd rather parlays parlay this into something than putting all this into one bet.

So yeah, as you can tell, Chad, I'm very high on this team, and I'm with you.

The biggest Achilles heel when you drive.

Through the numbers, and this this organization is their drafting of their defense.

Have these guys improved enough on the talent they've lost in the back end these last couple of years to be a great defense to match Josh Allen And they have not.

They've not shown up in the playoffs when it matters, it's always on Josh Allen.

And you know last year, I like I said, I don't want to make the excuse for him, but you know, you expect, you put up thirty points on the road, you're probably gonna win.

And that he fell apart in the defense, fall apart there that against the Chiefs.

So that that's the question.

Chat like you have it.

It's the defense.

But also we talked about the young talent they're adding to the defense.

Everything I keep reading is about Matt Mulano coming back and how he's a game changer for this defense.

They weren't that good when he was playing last year and so.

He was hurt.

Yeah, but he's been hurt NonStop.

But when he comes to the field, like even the playoffs, he made a couple of plays, You're like, that's why he's so special, Like even in that Ravens game, he had a couple of players where we're like, that's why he is special.

I get you're coming from he's older and he gets hurt a lot, but that's just a name.

That's why they're telling you that because there are other guys in their defense.

That aren't hiusehold names.

That's why they're not talking about it.

But to me, again, I get where you're coming from where it's like he's an older guy, but he's not like they have other parts that are gonna be more important.

But I agree, the question for me is just going to be there.

Like they they've been drafting secondary, they've been spending money on the secondary.

Can can they cover?

Because I still can't believe Mahomes and that that Chiefs offense put up whatever it was, thirty three thirty points last year.

In that playoff game.

That was not I think that might have been the first time all year they put over thirty points, right, something crazy like that.

So that's that's the acchilles of this team.

And I think that's why I get your skepticism when you talked about it a little bit, but I've been blind to it all summer.

I'm just like, man, this is he's twenty nine, Josh Allen whatever, this is his seventh or ade season.

It's just all lined up, like, is he really about to go ero for five against Mahomes and the playoffs?

I just I can't believe it, Like when you dive into the stats, it doesn't make sense.

It's an anomaly.

He's just so talented, he's so good, but he just keeps fucking up in these fourth quarters, or the defense fucks up for them in the fourth quarters.

And it's like, if you're a Betty Mant Chad, eventually it's gonna go the other way.

Brother.

So that's why I'm hitting it.

You know, super Bowls plus seven hundred.

You could do what Chad's doing, which is like bad, and maybe see if you can get a better number.

But I do matchups, so like I've already thrown a couple of matchups with them in the Rams, them and the Eagles, and they're all they're all nice and juice.

I think they're all like fifty or forty five to one.

You know, I do the matchups.

I've already I actually did the Bills and the Niners at forty five to one like that.

I think we talked about this with the NFC West.

I just feel like I'm.

Not seeing any value in anything Betting the Bills outright eleven and a half.

I guess you could take it, but it just feels like last year was so elite and so special it's ripe for some regression.

It wasn't just Josh Allen.

It was sort of everything being perfect on the offense.

I watched the movie Sinners over the weekend.

I didn't even know Hailey Steinfeld was in it, and she was awesome, and it just made me excited for her and Josh Allen because you know, I love love.

She's the ultimate catch, and you know, Josh like, that's why I love about it though, Like he's hype dives, he has an off field life, but even watching Hard Knocks, he's just so committed to that team and that organization, the fan base.

It's like they just I can't get over how they deserve it.

The Bills deserve this, but you really.

You got you got one of a comment with Josh Allen.

He is he is superman, sotty, pretty sweet.

I just think it'd be great if next year Josh Allen is coming off of super Bowl win and Hailey Steinfeld is walking the red carpet with him at the Oscars.

I think it'll be amazing, all right, Matt Mitchell.

I feel like we need to get Matt Mitchell's take here because he's so aligned with the Bills and defined by the Bills.

I appreciate you making me a part of this.

Will you offer any insight as a fan?

I'll say this, I am consumed with the exact same amount of dread for the exact same amount of reasons as I have been.

I think Simon nailed it perfectly.

I do think if you want to get involved in betting Buffalo, I actually do think the Super Bowl matchup angle is probably a really smart one because seventy one's asinine because it always feels like it's a billion to one that they'll win the super Bowl the last season in the old stadium, and wanting to know if you're a conspiracy theorist, the league turning its eye to Buffalo.

They'll want them to be successful and make money in this unbelievably expensive, publicly funded stadium.

So I think there's some angles there, all right.

No, it's good for the script.

I agree with that.

Yeah, New England Patriots.

This is what's interesting, huge trendy team getting a trend alert here.

Matt Mitchell cue the alarm trend alert.

Ms of bursting at the moment from Melbourne.

Everyone loves this team.

You can see it in the numbers.

For example, their conference styles are thirty five to one.

There's Super Bowl odds are seventy five to one.

Their win total is seven and a half, same exact across the board as the Miami Dolphins, but the Patriots division odds five to one, the Dolphins division odds seven to one.

So we know where the money's going.

We know what people are excited about.

And then this past weekend against the Bills, like everyone are not against the Bills.

Oh my god, I just totally forgot who they.

I think they played the Commanders the Patriots.

They're starting with their new left tackle.

That kid from LSU looked amazing.

Those little videos were all over the TikTok of him doubling guys, of him pancaking guys.

So hooray the Patriots are back.

It's going to be a team that, like you just said, the general public's gonna hype up, and you know, is it deserving?

Chad of the hype.

You know, it's all.

It's all debatable, but I think we both look at this team and we see the pieces they have and it all comes back to Rabel, right.

I think we're both one of those guys.

We just we look at coach and it's such an important cog and I think most professional betters do.

And that's why they've taken a position here where it's like, Okay, they.

Have the schedule you expect.

When they have they've addressed the offensive line, it should be so much improved that you know, if Diggs just gets back to seventy five percent is what he was before the knee injury, that's.

A huge upgrade for them.

The wires super position, this is someone that can run.

Routes like he is really really crisp, but at running routes, that's what Digs has always been so talented at.

So, you know, Drake May you know people people have taken positions on them.

We've had people on the show that you know, talked about him being one of the best quarterbacks they thought coming out in that group, and I've just I've never seen it.

And even last year he had moments of that.

He popped.

But it's like, you know, we all know he has the talent that have throat beat deep throws downfield, or he can run the ball, and that's that.

Was never the question with him.

The question with him was being consistent, and that was the problem with him coming out and last year was kind of a throwaway because you know, this year is gonna have Rabel McDaniel's coaching them up.

That's a huge, huge upgrade than what he had last year.

I think people might be a year early on him because of what they're projecting, because people are like, well, they have an easy schedule.

Every fan base, you talk to any fan base outside of New England, you're you're the easy team on their schedule in New England, Like you're talking about everyone being you have an easy schedules here.

When people look at their schedule and break it down No.

Thirty one, other teams are saying, that's a win against you, guys.

I don't think anyone's giving a loss to the Patriots.

So they're they're an interesting team where it's like I get what the bookmakers they're doing.

They're taking a position on them and their model is projecting out this is a really talented team.

I think it's a year early.

Like my model literally has them right next to Miami basically.

And you just talked about the difference like seven to one Miami to win this division.

They're five to one.

That's a big that's a big difference.

So yeah, I like this Patriots team a lot.

I love the pieces there, but it's like, oh, I don't what is what is the ceiling?

It's they put them at seven and a half wins.

Are you taking their under?

I'm not taking their under because there's so many variables.

They could easily go over this with Rabel and Drake May.

Because it sucks to lose.

It fucking sucks losing awful.

That's why I want to win.

Dude, I did the math, all right, I did the math because a I've asked this before, But give me your opinion on the number of wins you think Mike Vrabel can get for this team because of his coaching.

Remember Mike Rabel managing the clock, managing the game overall, strategically, understand the rules.

Doesn't have any peers in the NFL right now.

The only one was Belichick, and he was out maneuvering Belichick the last few times they played against each other, So I have an opinion on how many games I think he can win for them.

How many do you think?

How many do you think he can win for them?

Yeah?

I think last time I said two, and I think you had at two and a half, right, Yeah, something like that.

Yeah, I set the line at two and a half.

I think it can be as many as three.

There's a couple factors for me that make me like this over and it's actually not the Drake May hype.

I think that the offensive line will be improved.

I think it's a generally better coach team.

I'm discounting Stefan Diggs.

You just don't know.

So their skill positions haven't really improved very much.

But I think their defensive line will be better.

They got Milton Williams, Christian Barmore will be back.

I like their defensive back Fiel of the Lot Christian Gonzales continuing to improve as a physical, lockdown corner.

They have really good offensive backs.

But like you just said, it's the schedule.

I count.

I count six fifty to fifty games Raiders, Steelers.

Panthers, Dolphins twice.

I count six games that they should win Giants, Jets two times, Browns, Titans, Saints.

So but this is my point, they're honestly not that much better than those teams.

So that's gonna be the thing you need.

You're gonna need Drake Man to take that step.

Like of course, that's the margin.

With football is that you need you need the quarterback to show it and be consistent.

Where we all know he has talent, but talent doesn't mean shit in the NFL.

Everybody has talent, So can he be consistent with the talent that he has is the biggest question.

And yeah, for me, I wanted to take the over coming into this.

I mean, we talked about them months ago where I felt they were the best value bet.

For this division.

I still think that's true in some sense, even though it's come down a little bit.

It's like if Drake make takes that next step and Josh Allen eventually takes the wrong hit, like he's such a physical quarterback, you know, nothing lasts forever.

Yeah, this would be their front runner to me.

So then all of a sudden, me and you have amazing odds I'm most likely their front runner team just because the hype is so high, Like you said with this new England team and.

The schedule breaks that way.

So I get it.

I get why guys are taking a position on them.

I just I can't find it like right now, like we already talked about it, Like I was confident on the Bills over eleven and a half, This one I wanted to be confident on like I had confident.

Like again, my model has an eight and a half.

That's a full game up, So I would bet this if you want to take the over here.

I'm just I'm so nervous about Drake May.

I haven't seen enough even in this training camp.

I haven't read enough of him being consistent where it's like I want to see them, you know, a week out before the season before I put any money to this Patriots team.

I really need more time, more info from the be writers, just because right now it's just too much happiness and excite me with the Patriots up there, Like everything just seems like such flowers and bullshit.

Able Like had some comment to some guy in they meet and everyone went ape shit.

They're like, this is what we needed, this is what we miss and it's like, yeah, I get it.

We all love Rabel, but we need to see what his actual game plan will be on the field.

So uh yeah, good start to it, right.

They blew that, like you said, they blew out the Commanders.

Good defense, discipline, that's what that organization needs.

So the right start for the preseason.

But yeah, I need to see what's going on with Drake Main these next you know, three weeks to really have a confident bet on them.

Yeah, I lean over, but it is not even close to my favorite bet in the division.

Have we gone anywhere near any of your favorite bets in the division so far?

I just want to make sure it wills.

I love Like we just talked about the bill super Bowl bets against Super Bowl matchups and they're over.

I love low and a half, Like, okay, I get them at thirteen wins, and like, as a huge that's my model as a human.

I'm just like I'm the opposite of you.

I look at their schedule, I'm like, where do they lose?

Like they're just they are just so much better than some man of these other teams because the style they play with Joe Brady and the ball control of that running style they have on offense.

Now, so yeah, I told you, I'm drinking too much of the kool aid.

So I was happy to hear you skeptical because I need a little bit of pull back.

I've talked to other pros who pulled back a little bit because of that defense.

But I'm also just like, man, it's it's so hard to pull back Josh Allen at this this age and this prime.

It's just we saw it last year, Like you said, that was his best season ever.

He just has gotten better every year, and it's like, what is this.

Are we about to see the next step where he literally has one to two turnovers this upcoming season.

I mean, that's that's gonna be the game changer for him.

Is just if he cannot fumble or throw those stupid picks in the red one, which we saw last year, he became MVP.

So that's that's the question with them and with this team here, it's all about Drake May.

Like I don't think neither.

You were either high on him or low on him.

We're just no opinion.

He didn't showing.

Yeah, I have a controversial favorite bet that I didn't really come to a conclusion on until I finished my research for this division this weekend.

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All right, Miami, As I said, Division seven to one, Conference thirty five to one, Super Bowl seventy five to one win total seven and a half.

I'm telling you, man, if Tua is healthy, this is a competitive team, no matter how bad their defense is.

Every time you look at the stats for the past few years when he is playing a full season, I know we don't like him as a quarterback.

I know we would never put him in a top ten, but he is a top ten quarterback across every single metric.

Superficial stats, Advanced metrics, anything you look at because of who he is, because of the system he plays in.

He is just too good in this offense.

He is too accurate.

The offense is too hard to stop on short slants and quick throws in short yardage situation.

So everyone is down on them, which screams to me, give me the over seven and a half.

I get it, I get it.

I know some people that have taken positions on this because of what you've just talked about.

This team is different with two, and you know that's that's the question here is can you stay healthy?

And I don't think he can chad the guys.

He just doesn't know how to take these hits.

And even though you know he might dodge the head injuries and it might be something else, he just seems brittle.

And you know that one year.

I think we both get sucked into it because they were so incredibly dominant that one year.

And I hate everything about this team.

You probably are right, like maybe I'm getting sucked into it, but like the two and noise, like everyone's finally getting tired of the McDaniels.

Bullshit, Like why are we all here?

What is death?

Is?

This?

Death is just are we in a black hole.

It's like, dude, you're a fucking football coach man, Like, if you're winning, it's funny when you're just one and done every year and you may be back through into the playoffs and you get your asses smoked by a real contender.

It's just it gets old pretty quick.

And that's my fear with them is up their windows legit closed.

And you know they might have, you know, one of the best front sevens in defense, but the back end is a fercious, horrible, horrible secondary and they've already had a couple injuries in the preseason to that secondary.

So it's I'm one of those people.

I'm with the general public.

I'm just so down on this team.

But once again, they're like the Patriots.

I'm not touching the win tot because of the quarterback, where if he is healthy like you're talking about, they'll get the ten wins.

Like Tua.

He puts up the numbers, and they have a defense that can steal them some games at certain spots.

So again, I.

Could see it happen, like I could see them being better than the Patriots and obviously better than the Jets because they have a legit quarterback that we've seen do it and in all sences the system that you know there is one of the best running styles in all football.

Like as much as I like to give that coach, he knows how to scheme it up like they are great.

I mean not in the red one.

I know, we all know they're like the thirty second or thirty first team to come are running the red one, but everywhere else they're really talented.

So you know, between a chan Waddle and Tyreek, if Tyreek gets head of as asked, that's that's a really great offense when it's ran by Tuus.

So I get why you love it.

Chat.

I'm not gonna not gonna show in your bet.

I'm just I'm stuck on it where it's like my model is like you, it hasn't met nine wins, And usually I would slam that like a game and a half.

I want to be all over that, but I'm just so scared of Tua, like everything about him, Like I know he's got the weakend and I feel like he's got a brittle body.

It's just it's not the right mix to me for betting these win totals with a quarterback like that.

If he's healthy, they play the Jets twice, they play the Browns, and they play the Saints.

My supposition, my bet, for lack of a better term, can they find four other wins in thirteen games?

So it's like you said, the key the key component here is do you believe to uh will.

Be healthy.

And you cannot stay healthy.

The key component for the Bills is do you believe their defense can improve enough to help Josh Allen?

When it really matters.

I tend to believe the Bills defense cannot improve enough to help Josh Allen.

You tend to believe it can.

I tend to believe to it can be healthy.

You tend to believe he can.

And that is the difference right now between our opinions on both of these bets, in which we are basically fifty one forty nine right and I'm leaning into a being healthy because I don't think anyone wants to make this bet.

People have the like I told you, like the the public is totally out and the media is toy.

But the wise guys, the wise guys are.

Taking position on them because they're like you, they think it's been an undervalued team.

I'm a fucking wise guy.

I don't even need to know what you're talking about and what you're hearing to know that the Dolphins with everyone hitting on them, and what two his stats have been when he's healthy to know over seven and a half is the right side.

But told you the why guys are on all these fucking teams like they like the Patriots too.

That's why.

Yeah, we're about to get to this.

Guys don't know anything.

This is the team was talking about the Jets.

All right, let's talk about the Jets.

Let's get to them as long as we can recognize that I'm on the right side as the wise guys with the Dolphins, Jets.

Your gambler, who bets on the Jets?

Who have you not learned anything about.

Betting the Jets are gonna come back fourteen to one, the win to win the division conference, seventy five to one, Super Bowl two hundred to one win total five and a half.

So it's true.

It's really tricky, right because there's not a lot of reason to be optimistic about the Jets.

And this is part bias and part thinking.

It's bias for me in terms of how I feel about defensive stats when it comes to betting.

I think they're vitally important, and I oftentimes think that they are undervalued in creating a point spread and in how bookmakers look at them and how fans look at defensive stats, especially things that the Jets have proven to be good.

At when they had good coaching.

They've got a dominant defensive tackle in Quinn Williams, they have a potentially dominant corner in Saucegardner.

There is always sneaky upside from this defense.

For me, it was a very good defense when Robert Salo was coaching it, and then it creatored I like what Aaron Glenn did with the Lions when they had nobody because everybody was injured.

So those are the positives to me.

But I'm not going to make a bet on anything regarding this team because their offense is just so bad.

I'm I'm drinking the kool aid.

I can't believe it.

And it was funny.

I was, dude.

I know, I've been trying to fight it off, but I've been just buying so many shares all summer in fantasy football of Justin Fields, and I needed to see one minute of him in preseason running that touchdown to be like, this is the vision.

This is the vision of the stupid ass team getting to eight wins, eight and nine somehow with Aaron Glenn, because I do believe in him as a coach man, Like that Detroit defense was held the game held together with bubble gum and bullshit.

I don't know how they function.

That line's defense could not believe it.

They were the one seed, like he held it together.

His coaching is so good, like his schemes, his adjustments.

Again, you were talking about it.

Maybe there was some dude in.

The background that's giving him all this data.

But Aaron Glenn everything I'm reading.

I love the.

Way he talks to his team, how the guys talk about him.

You know, we'll see this.

But it's like, five and a half wins in this division feels very, very dangerously low, Like this is should be six and a half, seven and a half for a team that, in my mind is no different than that Patriots team or this Miami team, where it's like if Justin Field's with all this potential, Like again, this guy, I know, Bear fans don't want to hear it because he was a loser and he just could not win any of these games.

But he was like a top three, top four running quarterback in the league.

Like his level of athletic talent, that was never the question.

The question was can he become a pocket passer?

And I feel like we have our answer there.

He is not a pocket passer.

So if they go into it being honest with him and he's being honest with himself, this team has an obsane amount of upside because what you just talked about, Chad, you have the D line, you have half of the field locked down.

If Sauce can because to me, Sauce fall off the cliff last year and I don't know if that was him being you know, off the field distract he just didn't care because no one else in the team cared.

But if you if he can be what he was his first year in the league and be a shutdown corner, that's a huge deal for this defense, Like that's that can change the whole identity because Aaron Glenz never had that type of talent.

I mean, again, they had some of the best safeties on football in Detroit, and but they didn't really have great cornerbacks.

Like they had so many injuries across the board, so yeah, I just I can't even believe it was five and a half, and I hate that.

I loved it right away.

And I knew my model was gonna love it because of what you just talked about it.

Like, I'm so school, I'm so skewed to defenses and the way the league has gone with these running quarterbacks, like they just having a guy that can get you a first down with his legs on third or fourth down.

It's become the cheek coot.

I mean, we're seeing it in this preseason chat.

We keep talking about these kickoffs overs are fourteen to two.

I believe in this preseason it's changed.

The game has changed.

Starting at your own thirty five, start your own forty has changed the game.

And that's why Justin Fields, if he can be true with himself and realize he's not a pocket quarterback, they need to keep keep him either moving outside the pocket or you know, doing these Reid options.

That's gonna be the key to success for this Jets team.

So yeah, they're They're a team I love because it's going to be you know, five and a half.

You're never out of this bet.

If you have two wins with six weeks to go, you can lie to yourself and be like this Jets team they can sneak they can sneak out a couple wins here end the season.

Get me over this five and a half.

So I'm shocked on another one.

It's like they're just they everything about them, new coach, the new coach bump.

Everyone's given it to the Patriots, but no one's giving it to this Jets team at all.

I think that's interesting where it's like Aaron Glenn Man, he's he's not that different than Raverle in some aspects of his motivator of men.

But I get where you're coming from because we've seen Brabel do it.

We've never seen Aaron Glenn do it.

Well, that's exactly why, Hey, we haven't seen we haven't seen Glenn do it as a head coach, like you loved what I saw with the Lions, like you totally lean into defense, usually leaning to defense, especially when I think there's value in the win total.

And I don't think that's being accounted for.

I think the bookmakers are seeing the public and saying it's the Jets.

It's Justin Field's on his third team.

He's a wash out.

He can't throw, and it's a whiny fan base and everyone is thinking Aaron Rodgers is gone.

This team can't get out of its own way.

They're gonna be losers, right.

So I totally think there's value on the five and a half.

I just didn't jump on it because Aaron Glenn is a defensive coach.

That's where I think he will really put his stamp.

I don't know what they're gonna do offensively, and even if they do do well offensively, Justin Fields as a running quarterback cannot finish a season.

You know, we talk about Tua, right, it's the same thing with Justin Fields.

Last year.

Justin Fields was great with the Steelers, but he didn't finish with the Steelers.

And that was an injuries.

That was Tomlin and I promise he made a promise, Russell.

Wilson promise, but also a little bit of the Steelers were winning.

But despite Justin Fields.

I know who you're coming from by Justin Fields.

But yeah, he wasn't hurting them either though, like he went five and two or something.

We are we saying that the model for the Jets now is what the Steelers did last year, only we think it can extend over the course of a season.

At least to me, Pittsburgh was saying to him, don't don't let us lose because of you.

So they were really pulling it back where Aaron Glenn's like apparently being like all blown smoke up his ass, being like, you're one of the top guys.

We're gonna release you.

We're not going to try to contain you.

We want you to be one of these guys that's you know, slinging it, running around with it.

So again, I think they're totally from the viewpoint of they'd be happy.

The Jets.

I think if they went you know, three and fourteen, but if they can if they can unlock something here and justin fields, the right the game of a two year deal, I believe if they can get to eight nine wins, that's that's something to built on go head into next year.

So that's that's my hesitation here where it's like I totally get where you're coming from, just in fields and injuries and everything like that.

It's just when a new coach comes in you have a defense.

I usually I drink the kool aid on those type of.

Teams, all right.

Simon's favorite division bet is the Buffalo Bills over eleven and a half.

Mine is Miami over seven and a half.

He also likes the Jets over five and a half.

I probably could be convinced to join him on that enthusiastically, but we're not going to jump in on the New England Patriots.

The Favorites will return with our next episode Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page when we talk NFC East.

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