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She told Trump the return of Taiwan to China is a key part of the post World War two international order.

We've seen a fracturing to some extent of this administration on the Russia issue.

It's not impossible that we'd have a similar fracturing on the Taiwan China issue.

European country are facing the austraight from Russia, w China being decisive in abrah.

Trump had a very important meeting with President she but crucially the issue of Taiwan did not come up.

So now the issue is back on the table.

Taiwan is one of the most politically sensitive issues in Asia.

It's also a pillar of the global economy, producing around ninety percent of the world's most advanced computer chips, so any murmuring around Taiwan's future can cause waves.

China has a longstanding objective of reunification with the self governing island, and now She Jinping is watching Donald Trump's peace plan for Ukraine closely for any lessons Beijing can learn, Here's why Taiwan's future might be tied to Ukraine.

Bloomberg opinion columnist Karishmavswani has been writing about this, and she joins me now for more.

Karishma.

First of all, how can we understand the current state of relations between Beijing and Taipei?

Well, Stephen, I think you know it would not be unfair to say that the current state of relations are pretty terrible.

In fact, just to lay out the positions on either side for our audience, China used Taiwan as its own territory, which you know it has consistently said that it plans to unify with through peaceful means or by force if necessary.

That's an all the official documentation about this issue.

Taiwan, for its part, sees itself as a self governed, democratic island with its own distinct and unique identity.

And that's something that has been growing over the last several years where you see a real move towards the definition of what it means to be Taiwanese versus Chinese.

Now, in terms of official communication channels between the two governments, those have actually largely been shut down.

Since twenty sixteen, Beijing has been intensifying military pressure around the island, with near daily incursions into the airspace and the seas around the island.

It's also been intensifying the diplomatic pressure on the few allies Taiwan has left, and it gets very very annoyed with the current president, leijingdur who it views as a separatist.

So you've got this relationship that's defined by strategic mistrust and on the Taiwanese side, a really precarious position, particularly given the Trump administration's ambiguity around what they would do if indeed there is a conflict around Taiwan.

Is there any suggestion at the moment that Beijing is planning any steps in that direction.

In addition to all that pressure that you're talking about, The sort.

Of scholarly debate on this is divided, and in my view, there's no imminent evidence of an invasion.

But what I will say is that China will always want to win without firing a shot, and that's why you see the kind of step up in military activities around the island, the pressure that it's imposing on diplomatic allies.

You see the rapid build up of the People's Liberation Army and all of this is to clearly shape the environment to make Taiwan feel more vulnerable over time, and I think that's the intention.

Now.

What you are also seeing is sort of the cyber attacks being ramped up, disinformation campaigns being ramped up, economic measures that threaten and undermine Taiwan's confidence.

So what this is called a gray zone coersion, and it sort of falls short of all out war or a blockade or an invasion, but it does erode Taiwanese security, and there's no sense that it could be immediate.

But I think it's definitely the picture that we have of Beijing preparing the political military and sort of laying the groundwork for a confrontation if it chooses to escalate.

So what's the connection then to Ukraine?

Why is President she watching the Trump administrations push to end the war in Ukraine so closely?

So this is really interesting.

In a phone call between President Cjen Ping and Donald Trump recently on the Chinese side, the Taiwan issue was mentioned quite blatantly, and it's something that the Chinese feel very strongly about.

And I think you know, in the background of all of this You've got the ongoing consultations about what will happen with the American peace plan for Ukraine, and I think the Chinese are looking at that and seeing how much or what kinds of concessions there might be that Russia gets in all of this.

And it's not the first time that the parallel has been drawn between Ukraine and Taiwan.

Quite famously, the former Japanese Prime Minister in twenty twenty two, for Meo Kashida said first Ukraine, then East Asia in a reference that many took to mean Taiwan.

And I think that underlines all of this.

I think what Sijenping is looking at is a possible window of opportunity with Donald Trump, who is trying to cement better ties with China for trade and all sorts of other reasons, he wants to draw the redline around Taiwan.

That this is something that he sees as part of his legacy.

Unification is going to happen eventually, either you know, as I've said, by peaceful means or by force, and he wants to make sure that nothing gets in the way of that.

And I think the Chinese are looking at whatever peace plan comes out of the conversations around Russia and Ukraine as a possible template in the future.

What could then prompt Donald Trump to get involved in relations between Beijing and Taipei.

Does that look likely?

Well?

I think what you have right now is quite a departure from what we've seen under the Biden administration.

The Trump administration and Donald Trump in particular, has been really ambiguous about whether, you know, the US will come to Taiwan's assistance if indeed there is an invasion or any conflict.

Instead, what it has said, as it has said to many of its partners and allies in Asia, that you've got to cough up more for defense, and Taiwan has been doing that.

You know.

Just in the last week we've seen the Taiwanese government announce that it plans to spend another forty billion dollars on defense.

Of course, that has to go through a you know, sort of politically gridlocked parliament, but the intention is there, and I think the reason that it's there is to not just message to Beijing but also to Washington that look, we're keen on spending more money on our defense, but we're going to need help if push comes to shove is.

That the most that can do at this stage.

How can Taiwan, I suppose, prepare for any.

Of this, Well, it's already doing that.

And I think what's been remarkable to me just in the last few years is how much, and in particularly you know, under the Trump administration, how much that sense of urgency has increased.

It wasn't that long ago that military service conscription was only four months.

It's now been extended by several months to a year, and you have a real sense of civic responsibility.

I think it would be fair to say in Taiwan, where people are waking up to the idea that this could happen, that they are sort of at risk in some shape or form, or at least I think the pressure is intensifying on them.

On the military front, you are seeing more money being spent on things like as they call it, asymmetric defense.

These are missiles, drones, mobile strike systems, and the idea is to provide deterrence and to say, look, China, you know we aren't vulnerable.

We're going to be able to defend ourselves, at least in the first immediate instance.

We're going to put up a fight, right like, we're not you can't just march into this island and take us by force.

But the most important thing that it needs is a commitment from Washington, and I think that's the precarious position that Taiwan finds itself in, and I think with plans from both Siegenping and Donald Trump to visit each other in twenty twenty six, those meetings will be watched very very carefully in Taiwan.

Koreshma Vaswani, Bloomberg opinion columnist.

Thank you.

For more explanations like this from our team of three thousand journalists and analysts around the world, go to Bloomberg dot com slash explainers.

I'm Stephen Caroll.

This is Here's why.

I'll be back next week with more.

Thanks for listening.