This is the Patriots Catch twenty two podcasts with Evan Lazar and Alex Bars Bizarre and Lazar O everybody nailed it joined us always by our Here is Evan Lazar and Alex Bars.

I'm not in like any sort of panic about the run defense is because Tonga and Milton Williams are supposed to be coming back, right, So a big part of this is that you're missing your three hundred and thirty five pounds nose tackle and you're missing your best defensive linemen.

So if you get those two guys back, then in theory, your run defense should come back around.

But after really having an excellent first nine weeks of the season, the Patriots run defense in the last four games of the season are allowing a fifty five point one percent success rate that is dead last in the NFL.

They're the worst run defense in football the last month of the season.

You can need that run defense to pick it back up?

Can I need that run defense On Sunday against the Buffalo Bills and James Cook And one of the more underrated parts of this Bills team is their run game.

I feel like, you know, Allan gets a lot of the tension obviously, but their their run game really over the last couple of years has been a huge part of their offense and a huge part of their consistency of.

Their past game for the last I mean going back to last year.

Maybe well, I mean want MVP of the league last year.

So a lot of that was because it was rushing numbers.

Oh well him individually, sure, I meant more of their traditional runs.

Yeah, no, they good run game.

Anyways, we're gonna talk bills.

We have a little bye week exercise that we want to get to as well here today, and we'll also try to open it up a little bit more here today because we don't have a game to break down, Alex, we don't have a good bad and stuff that gets you beat because the Patriots did not play last week on Sunday, I do also want to talk a little bit about the week that was in the NFL and take this opportunity to talk about some of these other teams, hopefully not get myself into any trouble this time around with the fan bases of these other teams.

And you know, it's so sensitive out there these days, Alex, like all these people are so sensitive and it's not just.

How dare people like their football teams?

No, but it's got the whining on social media every single time somebody says something mean about your favorite team has gotten excessive, like last night across sports for a second.

Last night, I.

Tweeted about Jason Tatum's workout videos, which was great to see, by the way, But I tweet that and I think I said, you know, the Celtics would be favorites in the East if Tatum comes back and is healthy, which I did not think was all that controversial seeing that they are currently playing pretty well without them.

This is not a Celtics show.

I'm just let me.

You want to take your relap on the Celtics, okay.

And the response that I have gotten from that tweet is a bunch of Knicks fans in my company.

They lost to the Celtics.

You know, the Celtics lost to the Knicks.

Wit tatums.

Okay, I get it, I get it.

Broncos fans, Bill's fans, Knicks fans, calm down, just stay out of it, stay out of my mention.

Stop searching your team's names on Twitter and then complaining and whining.

It's gotten excessive.

It's not fun.

I don't like it.

Please stop, just please stop.

I'll be I'll try to be less loud about things, but you guys gotta start, you know, having a little bit of a backbone, like please seriously.

Meanwhile, I had a wonderful time getting along with both Colts and Chargers fans.

Yeah, that's because you've been gassing up this stupid story.

All right, Can I can I.

A start here?

It's it's Evan, It's Alex Stocks behind the glass.

By the way, it's Catch twenty two.

Hello Evan, it may right into it.

It maybe the moment was we get to do this and maybe the most predictable outcome of all time.

Yes, Evan has zero interest in the Philip Rivers story.

None way, he does zero.

He's not amused.

He doesn't think it's fun.

He doesn't think it's funny, none of it.

He has.

It peaks his intra zero that a forty four year old grandfather five years out of retirement is getting signed by a playoff contender to play quarterback with four weeks left in the season, and oh, by the way, might play on less than a week's notice.

This moves the needle for you.

Zero.

Okay, So it's just wacky.

First of all, First of all, the fact that he's a grandfather says more about Philip Rivers than it does his age.

Not the first NFL grandfather, not Aaron Rodgers, Brett fav was at the end of his career.

So like, he's a forty four year old grandfather.

Yeah, I think like verin very more about Philip Rivers than it does.

That doesn't tell me he's old, Like you're in forty four year old.

There's not a whole lot of forty four year old grandfi.

It's not like a ten year old grandkid.

It's very recent.

I pretty sure last year.

Okay, all right, keep going.

Okay, it like they're I don't mean to out them or anything, but like Paul, Fred and Deuce I think are all over the age of forty four.

None of them are grandfathers yet.

So the fact that he's a grandfather tells me that more about him the party.

Okay, but that that's part number one.

Yeah.

Part number two is like like we're like why do why is everything a meme?

Like why Like this goes back to what I was just saying, why does everything.

Have to be it's or we're meming or Oh my god, how funny, Like it's not funny?

Does is he gonna play well?

Or is he not gonna play well?

Where's the humor in this?

It's not just humor.

It's an intriguing storyline.

The guys.

This, here's the thing.

If they were a two win team, I think people would be looking at it as more of a joke, making it more of a meme.

They're right there in the mix, like they couldn't make the playoffs, and if they make the playoffs, by the way, he might be the guy.

And the NFL is a totally different conversation.

The NFL is it's a totally different conversation.

No, No, I have no problem with talking about it in terms of what it means for the Colts and if he's relevant and if they're relevant now with him as quarterback.

What I have a problem is is that it's like you guys that make it like this, like, oh, it's so funny, Like what's funny?

It's a little goofy that you here's funny about it?

There's nothing there is there is when it comes to the state of the NFL, how many quarterbacks under the age of thirty are there on practice?

Squads or free agents or whatever.

And the cult are saying, no, this guy that hasn't put on a helmet in five years, who's closer to AARP?

They are like, it's not seventy.

It's the NFL, it's the NFL.

In the NFL is anomal.

We're starting to get up there in age.

If forty four is.

Close to AARP, is there fifty five?

Then we're ten years away from that.

I didn't finish the thoughts.

Is a close to ARP than the draft?

But you've been thinking about that?

There's no I actually just came up with that.

No, there's one.

Why is Philip Rivers a better option than guys who are actively in the league?

But this, and I'm sure they'll be asked to take but this is what makes it fascinating.

And two, the NFL is a copycat league.

If this works, oh my god, Like, what does it say about the current state of quarterbacks in the league?

And next time this happened way too much, Our team's gonna call Derek Carr.

Our team's gonna call called Derek Ryan Tannell.

I think Carr's shoulders shot.

Isn't that part of the Remember that with the Saints like he was gonna have to have shoulder surgery and he wasn't in a place here anyway, and blah blah blah.

But like you know it, we become Celtics catch twenty two and Colts catch twenty two in the first seven.

It's you can't deny it's a major NFL story.

Major as a stretch, it's a story.

I mean, it's all Schefter was tweeting about yesterday.

Because he's because like what he and all of the insider game has become is also just something that is annoying.

I just I don't know how you can't find it fascinating like I.

Find it interesting.

Is it important or interesting?

Well, I think it's interesting now it is the chance to become important.

Find out the way.

If it comes important, I'll be interested.

But the fact that it has the chance to become important to the Patriots, by the way, because the Coults get in the probably the seventh.

Seed, right, and that prichalleging that I that it's happening, I just I just I'm sorry.

I just you know, I don't have time for the nonsense.

The fact that doesn't move the needle for you blows like everybody else, I don't know what that means.

You don't want to talk about it, not in the context, not in the.

Context in the way that you all want to talk about it.

Now, do you think it's gonna work?

God, it's so funny that he's forty four and well, there's some good shows that come out of it.

There are I'm not there for that.

Do you think it's gonna work?

Why do you think the Colts view is a better option?

And I know he knows the playbook, but.

Like, I don't know.

I couldn't tell you.

I didn't cover the I find those elements of it interesting as somebody who covers the league and is interested in in in league dynamics and things like that, I find it interesting.

Can we move on now?

Yeah?

All right, So I want to I've been back in it.

Do we open bye week?

Do we open bills?

I do want to open with the bills because I was thinking about this.

I'll you know, the last couple of days.

This is probably the biggest game the Patriots have played in four years.

It's definitely the biggest game at Gillette Stadium since twenty twenty one, since Mac Jones' rookie year.

I would say the week sixteen game against Buffalo where they came here, not exactly the same situation because the Patriots have a little bit more margin for error this time around, and they did that time that time.

They were a game up on the Bills with the game in hand, but Buffalo curb stopped them, to be honest, in like sixteen twenty twenty one, and then the Bills controlled their own destiny and won the division from there.

So a little bit more margin for this time around for this Patriots team.

But it's definitely the biggest game at Gialette Stadium since twenty twenty one, probably the biggest game for the Patriots since the Bill's playoff game in twenty twenty two or twenty one season.

So whatever way you selec I said, Alex, this is the biggest Patriots game that they've had that we've covered in four years, which I don't think is in the NFL.

That is a lot of time like that is a long time to go between really relevant, high stakes end of season games like this, especially at home for the Patriots.

So you know, I think that this is probably you can't really build this game, you know, take this game any differently of billing it as one of the biggest games that they've played in the last half decade, really since Tom Brady.

Left, I think it's the biggest game I even if I know they played a playoff game since then, but they were the seven seed.

They kind of backed in.

Remember how many guys they were missing in that game due to COVID.

I think a lot of people forget that they had no chance that night.

Right, kind of knew what that was.

The Brady game, I know was a big game to a lot of people.

It was an emotional game, right, it was also a week four non conference game, Like ultimately the stakes were not there, Right, this is the biggest game that they've played since Brady left.

Yeah, I would agree, and hopefully by the way gets topped in a couple of weeks that that should be the goal.

But at least for the time being, this is going to be the biggest game they've played.

Remember when we were doing our old show and it was it was the twenty one season, and I had this thought the other day.

They kept playing all these teams that were like not good but playing well.

Right before they played the Patriots and we opened that show like seven or eight weeks a row with me saying this is the biggest game for the Patriots in two years.

Yeah, I'm glad we haven't kind of done that charade this year.

But this one, this one.

Is biggest game of Patriots have played at Gellette Stadium in four years.

I think is the way I would bill it.

Ay at Gillette, Well, five years, four, I did the twenty twenty one, two, twenty three, twenty four, six years, it's four years.

There was a bigger game in twenty one.

Oh, you're saying it since Brady left.

Yeah, I think it's the biggest game since Week sixteen, twenty twenty one.

Which one was that the time that bills Oh, okay in twenty twenty one?

I think the same.

It's the same situation.

Yeah, yeah, I think this is a little bigger than that because of what dream meant is you're saying since that game?

All right, fair enough, Yeah, anyways, we are getting into some semantics already at the top.

I like that, and the YouTube Chap thinks I'm panicking about Philip Rivers.

Good, yeah, you're yeah, you're you're worried that forty four year old grandpa is going to come in.

Here and be the grandpa.

Thing didn't match, you know, I did that on purpose.

Anyways, So huge game on Sunday for the Patriots hat and T shirt game.

I understand, And we were talking a little bit about this on Unfiltered and then I want to get into like the what we normally do, which is the x's and o's of this matchup.

I understand that the Patriots have some margin ferrer here.

They could lose this game to Buffalo, and conceivably they could probably lose the game to Baltimore too and still win the division.

But there's just certain way they can clinch the division this week even if they lose.

No, there isn't no there there is another there's some weird tiebreaker.

Things, and they can clinch it.

They can clinch a playoff berth, they cannot.

They can only clinch the division if they win.

Maybe that's what it was.

Yeah, you can still win the division if you lose.

You can probably, like I said, still win the division if you lose next week in Baltimore just by beating the Jets and the Dolphins.

But there's something There's two things.

One that there's something different about doing it on your own terms and not.

Like you don't want to be the team that backs it.

Yeah, and you're not backing into it by beating a bad Jets team and like a mediocre Dolphins team.

You don't want to do that.

The other thing that I think is it needs to be said about this element of it.

Besides playing the Eagles in Week seventeen, the Bills have the Patriots, the Browns, the Eagles, and the Jets to wrap up this season.

The Eagles are in a free fall and I think the Eagles.

My point is is that I think the Bills are going to run the table outside of this game on Sunday, which is a coin flip, right, So they're going to probably go three to zero to the season, which doesn't mean that they could pass the Patriots if the Patriots take care of their own business.

But it just puts a lot of pressure as these games get later and later in the season, where you're probably gonna the Patriots are going to be the Jets in the Medallands.

Like I'm that certainly hope that I'm not worried about.

But a Week eighteen game against Miami here where you have to win it to win the.

Division, and by the way, Miami might need that game to get in the playoffs.

It's just not a spot you want to put yourself in.

I'm not saying it's a spot it's a spot that they couldn't get out of or couldn't win.

It's just not a spot that you want to put yourself in.

So this game, from that angle, you just want to be able to say that you did it.

You took care of your own business, you did it yourself.

You didn't need tie breakers to win the division over Buffalo, you knocked out the champs.

Like that's what you want to say.

You want to be able to say that as a football team.

The other angle to all of this, with the Bills in particular, is just I think that there's a lot to be said for the fact that the Bills right now have won five straight division titles.

Josh Allen's the reigning MVP of the league.

There's just a lot of statements that can come from the Patriots winning this game.

Not to mention not that I think that they really care about this too much, but just as a fan and from the outside looking in the fact that a lot of people are still doing the schedule thing like if you beat Buffalo here on Sunday to win the division, it does quiet some of the all all you've played is tomato can narrative and all that kind of stuff.

So there's a lot of things that are acquire is it a lot?

In my opinion, all these things go into it.

All of this thing is all these things are important.

I think about this game and then I want to get into the specific x's and no's, but just how the stakes of the game in terms of if they lose this game.

Now at least it becomes interesting when it comes to the division, Like where's your your meter with that?

Yeah, I mean I think it's a you hit on a lot of it.

Like it's a true whether it's it's the division.

I know this isn't flex, but this is, for all intents and purposes, a national game.

This is the one o'clock game.

The country's going to see the MVP element of it like this, this is make the statement this and then the Ravens next week in prime time for the MVP.

Obviously you're not appealing to a committee.

You won't go down that whole road.

It's solid standings, but like there is something to be said for being back on the national stage and you want to make your case going into the playoffs, you're the team to beat in AFC.

This is the way to do it.

And then there's that one seed thing that's looming and they obviously can't lock that up this week, but the the the Broncos have a tough game and you got to get a game ahead of them.

Now they have the tie breaker no matter what.

So I just think, yeah, there's a lot the narrative stuff doesn't ultimately doesn't determine things.

I mean, I guess a little bit for the MVP, it does, but the MVP doesn't mean anything like ultimately, you know, we're not throwing a parade down Boylston for Drake May winning the MVP.

Sorry Drake, but it's just not you know how it goes.

This is it's just a really good chance to showbody like this thing is real.

And there's also the side of it of and I know people don't want to think about this, but we've gotten this question on this show.

What makes this team different than twenty one and twenty one they went into the bye week, and the bye week was a few weeks earlier, but they went into the bye week, the number one seed, seemingly rolling.

They'd won like, what was it, six of eight, seven of eight, something like that.

They won seven in a row, seven in a row going to the bye, and they came out of the by against a tougher portion in their schedule, which is what the Patriots will do here with the Bills and Ravens, and they fell off.

They completely fell off, and like instantly, like from the start of that Colts game.

And you know what makes this team different than that one?

Will hear you go, you're in the same spot, right, And I do think this team is different.

Drake May makes it Drake May makes it different.

I think there were also just some players on that team that were probably playing above the level that they realistically can play at.

And there's some guys playing some great football here too, But I think it's more sustainable.

This is a really good chance to show like, hey, this is different.

You know, you come out in the same situation and you handle it differently.

This is different.

Yeah, So let's talk about the matchups here.

I want to revisit the Week five game because although there's different personnel because of injuries and things like that, I think the way the game unfolded and the game plans on both sides is still really really relevant to how this game is.

Going to go on Sunday.

So the biggest thing I think from that game that you have to remember, and I'm not saying this to say that the Patriots win was any less impressive.

I'm just saying it that I don't think that this is going to replicate itself this time around.

Buffalo turned the ball over three times in that game.

We were called for eleven penalties, right, they had sort of especially in the first half where they turned it over twice really on their own accord.

One was a you know, a.

Botched exchange jets we panned off type thing that I don't think that's going to happen again.

I think you're going to get a cleaner version of Buffalo this time around.

I don't know about that.

Just because you think they're going to turn over three times, I don't know about three.

But they haven't.

They've had trouble turning the ball over a little bit this year, not that much.

And penalties, I mean, they've been okay, they're kind of middle of the pack.

The Bills are.

How are they this low?

And turnover they're twenty third and turnovers, Oh, I'm sorting that the wrong way.

Twenty third few they are one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eighth in the league, technically tied for six in the league.

And turnovers, they've turned the ball over a lot this year.

They James Cooks fumbled the ball a lot.

They've survived it.

Well, James Cook's gonna be playing on Sunday.

Yeah, I don't know.

They're going to turn the middle three times.

Maybe it won't be that bad, but I think, like, I don't think you look at it and say you can't.

I wouldn't say you can't count on the Bills turning the ball over.

Yeah, you wouldn't say that.

I would They among the league leaders and turnovers year.

I think you go and you hope it they turn it over that many times.

I don't think you expect that you can't count on it three times.

I don't.

Anyways, let's they've turned the ball.

They've turned the ball over five games in a row, and three of those five in their last five games, they've turned the ball over at least once in each game.

In three of those five, they've turned the ball over three times.

Yeah, I guess.

I don't know.

I just look at this game and I you got your you got they got the you know, kind of the sloppy Bills the first time around.

I would say in a lot of ways, I just don't.

Know if that I think the Bills are sloppy football team.

Here we go.

I knew this was coming.

It's not a Bill team.

They've turned the ball over.

Okay, they've turned the ball over eighteen times this year.

They turned the ball over eighteen times this year.

I can't just sit there, Bill, they're a sloppy football team.

I didn't say they weren't a sloppy football team, just did I said they you got the sloppy version of Buffalo and week.

That implies that there's a non sloppy version.

I think there is a non sloppy version.

Well relatively.

I don't think that there's a version of the Bills that doesn't turn it over three times again, it's called for eleven penalties.

There's no like, there's that their good team.

There's everyone is a little higher.

They're averaging seven penalties a game, so that one's probably a little high.

They're not averaging three turnovers again, No, but They've done it four times this year, including three times in the last five weeks.

And they played thirteen games so the year.

But as of late, I don't think this is gonna happen exactly the way that happened a week five.

I would not bet over two and a half turnovers for the Buffalo Bills, Okay, but I think to say, well, no, they're gonna play a really clean football game.

They haven't shown a lot of evidence that they can do that.

They're gonna play football game is maybe cleaner, but cleaner is not clean.

I don't know exactly how it's gonna manifest itself, but they're not exactly it's we did this last time.

The problem everybody thinks I have with Alan is more about McDermott.

It's not a tight operation, and that's been exposed more often than not this year.

Okay, So let's good put that to the side because we can agree to disagree there.

In terms of the actual way the game is schematically unfolded.

I think one of the big things that happened in this game just sticking with the Patriots offense for a second against the Bills defense.

Ye, in the first half, the Bill's played a lot of coverage blitz May very much.

They they had a good first half and both defenses kind of won the first half.

In the second half, they came out and they blitzed May on fifty percent of his drop backs, and he shredded them.

He completed like ninety three percent of his passes one hundred and eighty yards passing.

He was excellent, unbelievably good in the second half in Buffalo.

Made some unbelievable throws, you know, the ones to digs, you know, the booty hole shot to set up the game winning field goal.

Just all in general, just was unbelievable in the second half.

I think, not again, I'm not taking anything away from Drake May.

I just think that the Bills this time around, if they're smart at least, and I do think that they will do this.

I don't think they're gonna blitz them.

That's a little bit of an if, but you would think they learned their lessons.

You were just so salty about the Bills.

You can't give him any cret.

Have you not watched this team this year ninety they're not terrible like they're nine and four, because six and seven, they're nine and four.

Because Josh Allen just keeps doing ridiculous things and bailing out the rest of the roster.

Wow, that was so nice of you.

As I've always said about the Bills, Josh, that was big of you, as I've always said, a call like I see, there's.

Gonna be like fifty percent of the people that are gonna absolutely hate the first twenty three minutes of the show because we are just bickering.

Uh.

Anyways, So I the Bills blitzed Drake may a ton in the second half the first time around, he shredded their blitz.

It was not it was not a good strategy for them.

Now, I will say to your point, it does seem like they kind of fall back on blitzing when things sorted don't go well for the.

Eensively, they're not a game playing team.

They're gonna do what they're gonna.

Do well, but they they they aren't a game plan team.

But they actually don't blitz a ton, which is kind of weird.

Like overall for the season, they haven't blitzed a ton.

And my understanding and my you know, we've studied McDermott now for nine years, Like it's not a blitz.

I would not call their defense blitz.

A blitz defense like this is not Brian Flora right, that's coming here.

They actually play, you know, I would call McDermott a cover two guy, like I think he's a cover two scheme kind of guy.

Obviously four to three front, you know, overfronts, you know, things like that, a lot of nickel, and a lot of these things have changed this year.

They haven't played as much nickel.

They're much more base and dime heavy defense, and they've ever been under Sean McDermott.

Their defense right now, I think is probably the worst Bills defense McDermott has ever had because he's a good defensive coach.

He is, and he's always given their system has always given the Patriots and problems, especially the McDaniels offense.

Even Brady had some like kind of clunkers against Buffalo since McDermott has been there.

So they usually don't play a blitz happy defense.

They were blitz happy in the second half against Drake Main week five and got torched.

I just don't expect that to happen again this time around.

And this kind of goes to what we were going to talk about in terms of the bye week exercise.

I don't know why people keep button Drake May and I don't think that's going to continue as the competition and as the team start to get more game plan heavy and you know, how do we beat the Patriots that sort of thing.

He's just been excellent all year long against the Blitz.

So I expect Buffalo to play a lot more coverage in this game.

And and my second point about that, I think is related.

In the first matchup, they did not have Christian Benford shadow Stefan Diggs.

He didn't travel with Stefan Diggs.

So the Patriots got Steffan Diggs a lot on Tredavius White, a matchup that he handledly won.

And then they also got him in the slot a lot where he saw linebackers, safety, slot corners, Toron Johnson, you know that sort of thing.

And he just had a game.

You know, Diggs just went off.

So my guess is, if I was Buffalo, if I was kind of game planning for Buffalo, the two things that I would do.

I would not blitz, right, I played coverage.

And the second thing I would do especially on high leverage situations, you know, third fourth downs, things like that, you know, Benford's a good player, and I think Benford needs to Shoutowtefon Diggs.

If I was Buffalo, That's what I would do differently than what I did in Week five.

I'm kind of curious with Diggs.

Do we get you know, he was everybody saw him during that game.

He was on another level.

And it's understandable, right, like he's going back to Buffalo for the first time and all that.

It's not in Buffalo, But like, do we get and Diggs has been good outside of that Bills game and he took it, he took it to another place there.

Do we get that stef On Diggs again in this game?

Because Benford's good dig Diggs can beat him.

Diggs can beat them enough if you get that version of him.

But I also wonder if they do do that.

You know, Kishawn Booty had a good game against them in that first game.

Does that open him up to do a little bit more?

Does it open Pop Douglas up to do a little bit more and kind of test them with some speed?

So their secondary, I mean, their secondary is not good, Jay, It's really not.

So I'd be curious where the Patriots go if that's the adjustment the Bills make.

So they're twenty second right now Buffalo and Dvoa.

On defense, they're seventeenth against the pass.

They're thirtieth against the run.

Now, they've always been a little bit of a leaky run defense because they play so much nickel, but they've been This is as bad of a Buffalo pass defense as the Patriots have faced in the last you know, since really twenty twenty, since the Bills became you know, started winning the division every year.

So that this defense is I would say vulnerable if I was, you know, looking at it objectively.

The other thing that I mean, I want to get to more of that in a second.

Yeah, the other thing.

Just let's talk about.

The other side of the ball and then we can sort of talk about the current state of the Bills a little bit more.

The first time around, the Patriots, I think the number one thing that they did that was really important in that game was they shut down James Cook and I don't know if they have those levers anymore without Milton Williams, and hopefully they get Toga back, who was out there on Monday but still looked kind of limited in practice.

We'll find out more about that over the next couple of days.

But in the first matchup, thirty six percent rushing success rate for James Cook.

Below average certainly for him, but even for the league.

They really kind of shut down Buffalo's run game, and they put them in second and third and long, put the game in Allen's hands, you know, made the pass offense beat them, that sort of thing.

I understand that sounds counterintuitive when you're going up against Josh Allen and the MVP of the.

League, when you look at his who his receivers.

Are any quarterback that if you live in third and long is gonna have not as.

Great of a day as you could except Drake May apparently.

Yeah, but even Drake May is converting third and long's at like forty We thought first week, aren't last week.

Aren't they better on like fourth and five than they are on third and one.

It's close enough, Yeah, it's if they're not technically, but it's relative to the situation.

It's it's pretty clear it's closer than it should be given the circumstances.

But shutting down James Cook the first time around, I think was a huge part of it.

I keep saying it Their most consistent part of the Buffalo offense is their run game.

Ye their pass game is extremely explosive and Allen is extremely dangerous.

Still scrambles, you know, second react, you know, extended plays, all that kind of stuff.

They're number in the league and explosive play rate across the board.

But in terms of their run game, you know, we saw a couple of weeks ago what they did to Pittsburgh.

You know, that was two hundred and fifty yards on the ground right at you right, And if you play that kind of game against Buffalo, then you know they're more under center, they're more run heavy.

They're basically setting career highs for Josh Allen and like designed run rate, under center rate, play action rate, like all those things are up across the board from Buffalo right now.

They are a turnaround, hand the ball, off run the football type of team right now.

Like that that's what they do, you know, play action, move the pocket, under center, all that kind of stuff.

That's that's sort of been their identity.

And I think to your point about the turnovers, I think that that's a response to them trying to be a little bit keep it a little bit more on the rails and be a little bit more consistent and a little bit more you know, had better ball security, take less sacks like all that kind of stuff.

But that was a big part of that game back in week five, was shutting down James Cook.

Yeah, and you made the point there at the beginning, and Mike Rabel has asked this on Monday, like how viable is the film from week five and how much do you look at that versus things changing?

To me, the biggest change from week five week five, right, week four, week five, yep, the biggest change from week five to now is the Patriots not having Milton Williams.

That is the biggest difference.

We didn't talk about it enough after that game, I think probably because it was Drake May's coming out party on the national stage.

But Milton Williams was so good in that game.

He's playing hurt and he was so good in that game, containing the run, running down Josh Allen in the pocket when he's trying to scramble, things like that.

He was awesome.

And that's a major loss.

Like he said, getting Tonga back will help if they get him back.

You know, mitigates it a little bit, but you really, really miss Milton Williams in this game because he was so good against the Bills in that last matchup.

That to me is the biggest hurdle for the Patriots in terms of, you know, game planning and adjustments you're gonna have to make because playing team twice in a year, there's always a little more that us going to the game plan.

Yeah, the biggest adjustment for the Patriots is how do you replace what Milton Williams gave you in that first game?

Yeah, No, it's absolutely true.

The other element of that game fort man coverage for the Patriots in that game was was not their highest but close to their highest.

And the way they played man coverage they bottle.

Isn't that off you know, soft, because they were.

It's the way you know, we've talked about, at least I talked about it.

That's how I've kind of wanted them to play coverage all year.

Yeah, and so hopefully that comes back.

I like, I really liked the way they played coverage in that game that I wouldn't mind seeing come back.

Agreed.

I think that that was probably my favorite game they've played all year from a coverage plan perspective.

Yeah, you know, man to man on these receivers.

Buffalo's receivers are not anything to write home about.

You know, Khalisha care is a nice player, Daltkin Kaid's a nice player when he's healthy.

But this is not prime Stefan Diggs in Buffalo anymore, where it's impossible to play man coverage against the.

Guy that good.

They don't have that number one, true number one receiver.

Now it's worked in their favor at times because they've spread the ball around a little bit more than maybe they did during the Digs years.

But like I was saying, in terms of like their run game, you know, they don't they don't do what they used to do.

This is not an aggressive early down pass offense anymore.

That's just throw throw, throw, throw throw.

You know, this is a much more balanced team.

This is a much more run centric team.

Uh And just kind of going to what they are currently right now.

You know, I think a couple of things about their offense, and we can we're probably closer to on the same page about this and than maybe we think.

You know, I think the number one thing that I would see with their offense is that and I'm hoping that with the extra week that like Vrabel and the coaching staff is going to be able to really be prepared for this game.

I see a lot of repeat plays on their film.

They run the same, like half a dozen plays in certain situations.

You know, they run a lot of mesh on third down, you know, crossing routes over the middle of the field.

Usually it's mesh rail where they peer with a wheel route out of the backfield by cook or Shakir on motion or something like that.

They run a lot of mesh.

They run a lot of outside zone, especially to the weak side of the formation.

They run a lot of duo.

They run a lot of the same plays.

They just run them all well, and so they kind of just are that type of offense right now.

There's certain though, you know, situational indicators and just kind of keys that you can read.

I was texting you about this the other day.

They run this like pop pass play action that we've saw for years with Rob Gronkowski with the Patriots and Tom Brady.

You pull the backside guard, you get the linebackers to bite up on the pole, and then you hit the crossing route to the tight end or the same route to the tight end right behind the linebackers once they step up into the line of scrimmage.

They want to guess, how often do you think that they actually run the ball from under center with a puller, actually run it, not play action, but hand the ball off to James Cook.

Is it a round number?

It is a very low round number.

Zero five percent.

Okay, five percent of the time, because zero's round, that's the joke.

So five is not a round.

Yeah, five percent of the time they actually run the ball.

So I was saying to you this the other day, like, why would you scream downhill at the line of scrimmage if you see them pull a guard Like that's clearly it's clearly going to be play action.

It's going to be play action ninety five percent of the time.

So there's these little indicators, these little keys, these types of things that when you watch this Bill's offense on film, Uh, with some extra time to prepare for it, I think the Patriots are going to be able to key on these things.

Now, that's not to say it's easy to stop them, because they have Josh Allen.

They have a good offense.

You know, they're top five in the league in pretty much every metric.

If you want to go with points, you want to go at EPA, you want to go with yards, DVA, whatever they're They're very good offense, but they've become predictable a little bit on offense.

I think the main reason they've become so predictable is that it's been a revolving door of weapons around Josh Allen trying to find the right mix, and so just they don't have a ton of time on task.

You know, we talk a lot about the Patriots and their health and stuff like that.

A big part of that is that May Digs, Booty, Henry Douglas.

They've all been repping since like July.

You know, Gabe Davis, yeah he's been there before, but with this collection, in this group, Gave Davis just got there like three weeks ago, Brandon Cooks just got there like two weeks ago or one week again.

Cooks hadn't even been in the system before.

So, like we're talking about a lot of new favorite you know, Shavers is playing a ton for them on the outside.

He's a new player to this group.

So I think you look at all these different types of things.

I do think that there are certain things that if you just key in on situational tendencies.

You know, they don't run the ball very much at a poller, you know with pollers, so if you see a pulling guard, then it's probably play action.

It's probably not a run.

They have a lot of window dressing or eye candy to their offense.

They're number one in the league in motion rate.

They have a lot of false pullers with your run actions.

They do a lot of this different stuff and then they play kind of develops after the snap and it's kind of the same thing, right, You just kind of have to sort through the mess first.

So if you have good eye discipline, you're good with your keys, anticipation, things like that.

I do think there is a formula here man coverage, you know, understanding their situational tendencies and their go to plays that you see games like Houston where they sack Allen eight times and they kind of dominate the game defensively.

Yeah, yeah, that's a breakdown.

How much to add you're right they I mean against the Steelers, how many times did they run that same so they you know, outside it was outside zone stretch run whatever that was.

So they ran between outside zone and duo, which is just the downhill double teams, which is the compliment to outside zone for a lot of these teams, they ran the ball taking Allen scrambles out.

They ran it forty three times.

Forty out of forty three runs were those two plays outside zone or.

You know, the Steelers never adjusted to it, So at a shirt at a certain point, shame on the Steelers for that.

Yeah, it's not They're not exactly going Joe Brady's not going deep in the bag.

She think it's not a deep bag for Joe Brady right now.

What they do really and like I said, they just dress up the plays differently, So they have motions they use, you know, maybe a slightly different formation, or maybe they run it out of a slightly different personnel grouping.

You know, they're big eleven, twelve, twenty one, they kind of use all three.

So sometimes they just kind of like, we're gonna run outside zone out of eleven, and then we're gonna put twelve on the field and it's still gonna be outside zone, but now we're just running it out of different groupings.

So it's presented a little bit differently to the defense, and so that type of stuff can be difficult for defenses.

You know, how are we gonna match twelve?

Are we gonna match twelve in base or are we gonna match twelve in nickel?

Right?

Like, how are we gonna handle you know, those types of different formations and groupings.

But at the end of the day, when they snap the ball, it's just outside zone, right, So if you can get through all of the mess, all the nonsense.

Now, the other element of this, the numbers in the eye test tell you that they have been worse against man coverage than they have against zone coverage.

Allen's been really really good against zone all year.

I think a big part of that is zone is quarterback and system typically like just rule of thumb, the quarterback reading out the coverage, finding the space in the zone, and then scheme like scheming open receivers.

Man to man is about the receivers, like we're gonna put this game on Bruffalo's receivers.

Your guys against our guys.

Can you win one on one matchups?

So it's still again a net positive, but so far they've been worse against man.

Now the tricky part against man, because I love the Patriots cornerback trio against this Bill's weapons group like I think Gonzales Davis and Marcus Jones have a really good chance of like controlling this game in the secondary for the Patriots.

The rub is Allen right, like, how are you going to rush him?

How are you going to spy him?

Potentially?

And if you're in man now your back's turned, so you have to.

So you have to have a exactly you have to have a rush plan.

You can't just play man to man and then have all four guys in the rush to pin their ears back.

So whether that's rushing five to try to cover all the gaps on the line of scrimmage, whether that's spying him, like whatever the case may be, that you have to have some sort of rush plan.

Who would you use it as a spy in this game?

Because they try?

I had Schooler and it didn't go so well in Week five, got a penalty on the sideline.

We give another shot, I might say, yes, the athleticism, if not him, Yeah, I don't know that this is so I'm doing.

It's nice when I'm talking about the draft this kind this time of year, but I am still doing my annual like you know, players to watch in college football playoff thing.

I started working on that yesterday.

Yeah, and there's a lot of guys that like here are a lot of linebackers that I'm just like the guy like that that speed, you know, track down some of these quarterbacks.

I might give school another shot.

If not him, I don't know, maybe Marte Mapu, although he struggled in that role against Alan in past years, He's done it a little bit, so yeah, yeah, I might go Schooler again.

Honestly.

Yeah, it's it's to me that's one of the bigger things about this matchup because I think the Patriots should and will want to play as much man to man as possible.

But obviously you worry about Alan extending plays or or just picking me right for try Dell Pettis because he's just not that big, Like I think that's the thing.

That's you need side.

But he is.

He's been playing good football series on the field a lot.

That's the thing that the thing that like maybe Dell p maybe they played dime with del Pettis.

Yeah, and it might not be Pettus who's the spy, but it allows him to get some more speed on the field to spy him.

Uh.

The biggest thing with with.

Alan that I think is makes him so hard as a runner is people don't realize how big he is, Like he's he's legitimately close to Cam Newton.

Rabel talked about him.

Yeah, he's like six six two hundred and thirty five two hundred and forty pounds.

So he's a tank.

He's six five seven.

Yeah, he's tough to bring down in the open field because of that.

Uh so he and he's pretty fast, but he's also just he's a tank.

You know, he's a tank in the open.

Field to thirty seven fields.

I would take the over on that.

This isn't me insulting him, calling him fat.

I don't think he's your thirty seven.

I think he's closer to fifty.

Yeah, he's a big boy.

Yeah, he's a he's a big dude.

All Right, everybody thinks that I'm a Josh Allen apologist.

Everybody thinks you hate Josh Allen.

So before we wrap this up, ye, where do you stand with Josh Allen?

Right now?

I mean I stand.

I've always stood with Josh Allen.

He's a good quarterback.

But I think sometimes people, for whatever reason, like the love for this guy, are blinded and in misplaced credit, Like the forty whatever yard touchdown run he had against the Bengals.

Don't be wrong, it's impressive.

We're not going to talk about how that was a really stupid zero blitz by the Bengals and he had a red carpet walk into the end zone, Like yeah, that I gotta be Even as a Josh Allen guy, that particular play didn't really move me, you know.

So it's like, you know, he had the touchdown where it's a good play by him to extend it.

I think it was the first touchdownchhound's ridiculous.

Well, there's one where it was forty four I think is Osai whoever it was for the Bengals.

Yeah, just doesn't turn around.

If he turns around, he breaks the pass up easily throw.

I think it was a good play to extend it.

But they could have been defended a lot better.

So that's just where I'm at, Like, yeah, he's a good player, but I think people get you get too carried away with him, and it just annoys me because at the end of the day, and look, this won't be decided this week.

Yeah, he now has an MVP.

Although it's that I've called it the Joel Embat MVP got more Lifetime Achievement Award than a real MVP.

There it is the postseason successes has not really been there, Like people put him on the level and I know Burrow choked badly in that game.

Joe Burrow's been with super Bowl.

You know.

Lamar Jackson has multiple MVPs, Mahomes obviously Mahomes.

I've just always kind of struggled to put him in that tier because the big picture accolade, he's a very talented player, and he has moments where he's very impressive.

He hasn't reached that group with the big picture accolades.

In my mind, I think that's a fair assessment in terms of the I mean, there's no arguing like he hasn't made a Super Bowl.

He's made one AFC Championship game and lost.

And I'll say this too because people call in and get Matt while you're hating him, and you still gotta givehim a chance.

I don't think Josh Allen is the biggest reason the Bills have not won.

I think it's Sean McDermott.

I can't be clear enough about that, Like if they had another they should have gotten rid of mcnermot two years ago.

Yeah, they should have gotten rid of him probably last year too, like I, well, yeah, like they there are deeper issues there that, Like I I don't think Josh Allen is a player that you can't win with.

I think that's more bills issue than a Josh Allen issh you.

But there are times that he hasn't helped the cause.

So I think there's two things with Josh Allen that sort of move the needle in my direction.

The first thing is obvious, like he's just fun to watch, like he just makes some crazy plays.

It's it's very similar to Drake, like he's just yeah, they just make unworldly plays like these just highlight reel plays.

So does Mahomes, So does Lamar.

Yeah, and I like watching those not really Mahomes.

Mahomes not so much anymore watching Lamar too.

Have you seen the splits on Mahomes Preen post Tyreek Hill By the way, now we have more of a sample size, but it's just the point p'sally pleasing people.

It is with Lamar, Yes, people act like it's it's I don't want to say Josh Alla it's not different because he is I don't think it's there are other guys kind of doing similar stuff to what Alan's doing, it might look a little different, like and it's not a lot of them.

I think Drake Man is doing stuff that's I think.

Drake is I think Lamar to an extent, YEA, I know I'm probably missing some Lamar is a different runner, but yeah, I think the the other element.

With Josh Allen, it just from my standpoint, is that he's probably the hardest quarterback to defend in the in the league because he's just so otherworldly talented physically, Like there's really not a weakness to his game from a physical talent standpoint, because of how good he is with his arm man with his legs.

I think Lamar is harder to defend.

I don't.

I think Lamar LaMarsh Allen's probably harder to tackle.

Lamar to me, and I love Lamar, you know, yeah, but Lamar is a between the numbers thrower.

Like if you can get Lamar and we'll talk about this a lot more next week, but if you can.

Get Lamar, and he's also this year, is not if you can.

Funnel the ball outside the numbers and make him push the ball outside the numbers, Lamar is not the same.

Whereas I think Alan is capable of hitting any spot on the field, and I think he's capable of running over any Yeah.

The fact I think some of it is you go to go back to what we talked about about the issues running deeper with Alan.

He's been through.

How many offensive coordinators now like handful the way the Ravens use Lamar jack like, because they really encourage you to play heavy, and now you want to take these things away that aren't easy to take away when you're in a base defense.

And I maybe maybe, yeah, we're doing the semantics thing again.

No, I hear what you're saying is so unique.

Lamar is harder to game plan for Alan.

Maybe in the moment for the players on the field, is tougher to defend.

But I think in terms of the x's and o's, in terms of the chess match, Lamar provides more of a challenge.

I hear what you're saying.

In terms of the uniqueness of Baltimore's offense.

You know, Baltimore's No one runs an offense like Baltimore because they can't.

Rightmar is the only quarterback that can do it.

So that might be more difficult.

But I feel like without and I think we say the same thing about Drake May, we're getting to say that we're getting there.

There's just nothing that's off the menu with Josh Allen, whereas I not that it's off the menu with Lamar.

But like Lamar's ability again to throw the ball outside numbers, throw the deep ball outside the numbers on go routes this year.

I looked this up the other day because I was doing some Ravens stuff.

Lamar is six for twenty this year, throwing the go routes six for twenty, right, Like, that's just not and maybe that's more about the receivers than it is about him, but it's just not a very high percentage.

So I think Alan kind of threatens more blades of grass, if you will, than Lamar Jackson does.

But both of them are awesome.

Ye, both of them are great.

But I think with this Bills team, this is the weakest that I've seen the Bills in quite some time, probably since before Alan became MVP candidate, you know, twenty twenty ish around there.

Defensively, this is a is the worst that I've seen them.

No, Ed Oliver, He's not coming back for this game.

Joey Bosas banged up, Terrelle Bernard is banged up.

But I would also look at their secondary and outside of Benford, they've kind of struggled to move into this next era in the secondary where it's no more and I know he's back technically playing a role, but yeah, there's no more Poyer, there's no more hide, there's no more you know, he's again.

These guys are all there because it's the big Trey White is kind of washed, right, Toron Johnson even there, they're really good.

Nickel Corner, he's kind of having a little bit of a down year as far as he's you know, his play is considered.

Maybe his play is starting to move in that opposite direction.

And then the bigger thing is outside of James Cook and Khalil Shakir, their weapons just haven't been consisted.

Yeah, there's no there's no downfield passing game really for them right now.

You know, when you ever you see Josh Allen in like the middle of the table in terms of air yards pass attempt, you're like, wait, that Josh Allen is in the is like twentieth in air yards, Like that's crazy.

Uh So, I don't think that this is uh the.

Beast, right, And it goes back to my point on Alan, Like when they were cooking her Alan Allen Allen, and I said this at that I didn't.

I said this well before he became a Patriot.

Stefon Diggs as good as he was in Buffalo.

Yes, I thought was one of the most underrated players in the league because he did not get nearly enough credit for what that offense was because everybody just wanted to solo give credit to Alan and some of the other guys by others like Gabe Dave was still there, right, and you see what they've become without that receiver.

I don't know.

I feel like I've been proven right a little bit on that that Stefon Diggs as good as he was in Buffalo, and I think people recognize him for being a very good player.

He did not get nearly the credit he should have gotten for what that offense was at its peak.

I mean, you're seeing what he's doing here, and you'd see what he's doing here, and he's helped the engine move here.

Yeah.

Yeah, I like he's a good player.

He's a good chain mover, he's really good with the ball in his hands.

You know, he's basically like a running back with the football in his hands.

Kincaid's given them problems.

You know, had a big game in Week five.

We'll see how healthy he is.

We had a tight end thing again with that.

Yeah, for this, we'll get to that in a little bit.

I think that's the But at the end of the day, like I said, this is the the easiest Bill's offense to defend that they've played in a while.

How about that.

You know, guys, we're talking about how are they to defend?

This is about as easy as to going to get So don't don't blow this opportunity.

We'll we'll see how Brandon Bean continues to mangle this roster next year, I think.

And I want to move on, but I think you make a good point about their their brain trust.

It's not just Sean McDermott like this.

This roster is not as good.

Well well, so here's why I put McDermott ahead of Bean in terms of the issues.

Because to me, they're they're they're both came from Carolina.

Started to cut you off, but they both came from Carolina.

They're they're tight at the hip, like that's they are pairing.

To me, it's it's both of them.

And I don't think this roster is as good as it's been.

But when the roster was better, McDermot still couldn't get over the top.

That's like like Bean gave him the tools at one point.

He doesn't have them now.

Yeah, he doesn't have them now, but being gained the tools at one point.

But like you look at us, they've tried to reset it.

I mean, I don't know if you want to take a key on Coleman Victory lap I know he caught a touchdown last week, but yeah, it's they they might need a reset there.

Yeah, they their roster, just looking at you know, the receivers, and I know what they tried to they they've tried to argue and he's actually argued about this publicly.

Bean has is is they tried there, They tried to claim they're doing the Brady thing or like Alan is so good that he doesn't need the superstar receivers because he's good enough to elevate the receivers that they have.

And you better have some talent on defense.

Yeah, but their defense has dropped off, and that's that's on him.

And they've made some weird draft picks, and in kyr Ilum Max Hairston.

We like Kyrie Elum, we can't well, we.

Liked him for the Patriots, but they drafted a man corner to play in his own system.

And then they also drafted Max Harriston, who I wasn't really too gung ho about, not because he's been injured and like, that's not why.

But I wasn't like a huge hole.

There were I think off field flags there too.

And I'm not trying to say that I know everything.

It's the weirdest thing they've done is still the one they didn't the move they didn't make, which is essentially trading Xavier Worthy to the Chiefs.

I will never understand why they did it.

He hasn't been great either, He's.

Been a lot better than Keon Coleman.

He's been more functional.

The fact that he's even if he hasn't been amazing, he's an ideal fit for what the Chiefs do.

The Chiefs at the time were the Bill's biggest roadblock in the AFC.

I get why maybe Buffalo wanted to trade that pick.

I get why they maybe wanted to trade down.

They didn't get nearly enough to trade down, and they gave a player who's ideal for the system to the biggest competitor they had in the AFC.

That, to me, is still one of the most questionable draft moves I've seen in my time doing this.

It like, honestly, it didn't burn them as bad as it should have.

And it's burned in pretty bad, but it didn't burn them as bad as it should have.

Fair Enough, all right, we got to hit the break here soon.

But I let's take Patty's call in a couple of emails, and we'll take the break in a few minutes, and then we'll do our bye week exercise.

Patty, what's up?

Hey, what's going on?

All right, guys, I'm gonna get a little deep here.

Just hang with me, but I guarantee you it's gonna all make sense at the end.

Now, when I first looked at the schedule this year, I saw three matchups that I did not like.

The coaching matchup for the One was Pete Carroll and the Raiders, one was Mike Tomlin and the Steelers, and one was John Harbaugh and the Ravens.

Now Alex, I don't know if you remember this but I called into the Sunday kickoff one morning, I think it was the Bills game, prior to the Bills game, after Drake had a pretty good game against Carolina, and I said, how long before us Patriots fans starts saying we're gonna win this game because we have Drake Man as quarterback.

I'm that same token, I'm that same Noah, I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna ask this question as Patriots stands, when are we going to start saying we're gonna win this game because we have Drake May as our quarterback and Mike Brabel is our coach.

Evan, I love you, but I am one behind Alex.

If Sean Payton was the coach of the Bills right now, they would have won the probably won the Super Bowl last year.

It's thirteen games into Mike Brabel's Patriots career and he is already far and away the best coach in the division.

It's not it's not close.

I'm sorry.

Yeah, I mean, I'm definitely I'm not a McDermott guy.

Don't get don't get my Allan if you know you're not guy, because you're such an Allen guy and you need a scapegoat.

Sure, and that's convenient for my argument.

All right, sure, but but Alan is awesome.

He is He's one of the best quarterbacks of this generation.

I Alex, sorry, I agree with Evan.

I put him right there with Mahomes.

I put him over I maybe not Burrow, I put him on the same level as Burrough, but a little bit above Lamar.

He's not gonna get done by himself.

You said it, Evan, this is not the same Buffalo Bills team that was that we even played last year.

Yeah, that we struggled to.

Beat in Week eighteen.

There's no doubt in my mind after listening to your analysis how the Bills like to run basically the same five offensive plays, that Brabel's gonna have this team ready.

He knows what's at steak, he knows what's on the line.

And I've been I've been really close all year picking picking games, and I generally don't do this on catch twenty two, but I am picking the Patriots to win thirty four to twenty one'd be great to be particularly close.

I think the Bills might come out and show a little flash at the beginning, but honestly, I think they're just gonna stomp their asses into the dirt to end the game, and like I said, he knows what's on the line.

I think this team is hungry.

I think this team you said that was the more desperate team yesterday.

It might be the Bills, but I think the Patriots are the more hungrier team.

And you know what, they win it.

I'm with you.

I'm with you to Evan, I can't wait to get the hat and T shirt myself.

What freaking baby, Thanks for the call.

Twenty one would be great.

That's gonna be a quick game to write about.

I get to catch the end of Philip Rivers against the Seahawks, nice nicely.

He mentioned Rabel having the team ready off the bye.

I think I talked about the stat last week on the show, but I'll bring it up again.

Mike Rabel career as a head coach coming off the by six and oh five wins by multi score margins.

He gets his team's ready coming off the bye.

Yeah, and his coach is there.

I might disagree with a few of them.

I am not a McDermott guy.

I'm an Allen guy, but I'm not.

The same reason you don't like Tua because in your mind.

That's why Mike McDaniel did no no, I just I McDermott to me is.

Part of the problem.

Like I've used the Mark Jackson comparison a million times with Sean McDermott.

Yeah, like he he's the coach before the coach, and they've just been really running out of time.

They've been really slow to move on from him, Like too slow.

It's his ninth year, right.

If you're a Patriots fan, and I'm not saying you should be worried, but I know this.

We're gonna talk about this in a second.

There's a lot of like who do you fear right now as a Patriots fan?

But the biggest fear with Buffalo to me is that Buffalo hires the right coach, right, Like if they go out and they hire the right head coach for Josh Allen, like they're gonna win Super Bowl maybe, I.

Mean, they're gonna have to fix the roster at this point.

That's then when I said they should have moved on for mcdermotag.

If they get the right guys in charge in Buffalo there, it's not.

Just the coach.

I mean it's his ninth year, right, Yeah, is it?

Time to start talking about my favorite list again.

Coaches ten plus years with the team without winning a Super Bowl.

Marv Levy, Marv Lewis, Ted Marchibroda, Jeff Fisher, Dan Reeves, Jason Garret, Andy Reid and Philly, Dennis Green, Jim Moore, Bud Grant.

Well one year away from adding two names to that list, Evan Sean McDermott.

And who's hired the same year as McDermott, Mike Tomlin.

No, the guy that he's won a super like twenty years ago.

Well, but he had.

The point is like, it's not on the resume, yet he keeps him up.

McDermott's not usually the reason I bring up this list.

There's another guy that I usually bring up this list for that has oh Kyle Shanahan.

Yeah, so they were hired in the same year.

Yeah, at least Kyle Shanon has been to two Super Bowls, Marvel Leaving went to four, and mar Levy's in the Hall of Fame.

That's true for now, that's the comp All right, we're gonna take a quick break.

But two emails.

Sorry, Alex, I keep throwing you off on that.

My bad.

Uh, these are two emails about one about me and one about you.

Oh okay, because we did start off the show a little bit spicy, so we deserve some of this, he says.

From Josh and Atlanta Big Keyboard Warrior, Josh and Atlanta says his subject line, Evan's hypocrisy.

Evan doesn't have time for the nonsense, but keeps bringing up his social media mentions across both podcasts.

It's a good point.

Talked about this yesterday.

Yeah, because like y'all are a bunch of whiny babies, like stop whining on social media and about sports like relaxed.

You can't whine.

We can't have fun, we can't make jokes exactly.

We don't know room, we don't care.

He's on your side.

Let me finish the email.

We don't care.

But when Alex talks about the QB situation of a potential playoff opponent, Evan is incredibly dismissive.

Alex, don't let Evan steal your shine.

His Drake mail love fueled ego gas ballooned to new levels.

Wow, Josh, think you I don't think liking Drake May is anything to do with putting down Philip Rivers.

It's not like Rivers gonna come steal the m v B.

Now, is there a case for him to make comeback Player of the Year.

Maybe, but I yeah, it's it's it's a very interesting story.

It's an interesting I don't think you talk about this.

I didn't say I don't want to talk about what I told you is is that.

I what I don't find interesting about it is like it the meme culture element of it, Like I don't care about.

This is so funny, such a thing.

It is kind funny.

But also it's like a forty four year old guy who's been retired for five years coming back to like quarterback in the NFL is a wild story.

It's an interesting thing to talk about.

It's an interesting thing.

They consider.

So this email is bashing you because we got one that bashed me.

Now I got to go on that bashed you.

And uh, Mike takes a stray in this one too.

Yeah, so good Lord Alex Bart and Mike Kadlick just love drama.

I have so much respect for Evan and Taylor.

Kyle so compliments flowers to Taylor because they have to put up with you guys.

Your guys is nonsense.

I love the way Evan and Taylor loves the love the game and don't care about the bs.

Keep up the great work, Evan and Way to be mature and an adolescent like the other.

It's like, I love the drama me classically.

I love the reality show element.

The irony of this whole thing is that I'm the reality TV guy out of the two of us.

But you do the reality TV with the sports.

But I got I don't with like, do I really do it that much?

I really don't think I do a little bit.

I mean a little bit, But no, I'm interested in the football side.

This is the thing I talk about the things that like Belichick at UNC, right, and remember, oh you want the drama of Bill No, I literally just wanted to see what he looked like coaching college football and that was it.

I didn't care about what was happening off the field.

Same thing with this, Like I there's yeah, there's some funny jokes that are being made about it.

I don't is there drama in this?

In the Philip Rivers thing, No, a forty four year old retired five years was an All Pro caliber quarterback, wasn't terrible his last year in Indy wasn't what he was.

It wasn't terrible.

They went to the playoffs, Like, what does this look like?

I don't know how you can't be fascinated by that?

I know, all right, let's take that break, Alex.

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Cat that catch two catch catch catch catch catch catch catch cat that catch twa twenty catch catch catch catch catch catch catch cat that catch twa two catch catch catch so there.

Was originally some know in the forecast for Sunday, but now it's kind of maybe not.

It's supposed to snow Saturday and it's supposed to snow Monday.

Is there anything we can do about that?

Like?

Why is it skipping Sunday?

You want it to?

Yes, you do?

You do love snow football.

David andrews with me on that, by the way, Yeah, because he played, it's different.

It's different.

Oh so the players don't the players don't know better than us.

No, oh my god, no, I understand why he would have fun playing in the snow.

I had fun playing in the snow.

We all had fun playing in this watching it's just not I don't find it fun to analyze a game that was played at like the Bills Bengals game.

I kind of almost throw that entire game out because they like they're playing in a blizzard.

It's not the conditions aren't the same.

I don't think the fans care.

What's easier, harder for you to analyze.

I think people want to be entertained.

Snow football is, yeah, very entertained.

I don't say the fans care, and I said I care.

I want for the fans opinion, which best for the fans is what's best for us covering the sport, good for the goose, good for the game exactly.

So if there's anything we can do, that old weather machine still lying around, if we can get one of those storms moved, but I think it's just flurries.

But like we get one of those moves by like twenty four hours, that'd be great.

Well, Okay, if it does snow, then the Jilted Stadium field crew will have Aaron's snowblowers to try to clear off the field during the game.

So the snow is going to continue to fall, and when it does, we are ready to help you tackle it.

Aaron's is proud to be the official snowblower of the New England Patriots.

Visit www Dot Aarons dot com to find your errand So it's interesting, I think in terms of the snow angle of it, I find this to be one of the things that people get wrong analyzing football the most, and I think maybe we're uniquely equipped to talk about it because we've experienced so many snow games.

People think you can't throw the ball in the snow, which I think could be further from.

The so kind of like if it's windy, right then it changes it.

But no, sorry, can I know what you're gonna say, You're.

Right, So I think, well, I just think a lot of people because I was listening to one of the pregame shows on Sunday before it Bill's Bangles, and they all want to take the air out of the ball.

Like, oh, you got it's the snow.

You got to be able to run the ball.

You got to be able to do No, you are so much better.

Off trying to get the ball in space right in snow because it's so hard to cut that when you know where you're going, versus trying to react to somebody cutting on defense, you have such a huge advantage.

So the game on site not just that well.

And this is depending on the snow in the surface, but you also hear players talk about blocking in the run game is very hard when you don't have your footing in the snow is incredibly so you know, if it's like flurries whatever, and it's different grass versus turf, but no, it is actually as long as it's not too windy, it is easier to throw the ball in the snow.

Now if it's you know, one of these blizzards where you're getting forty to fifty mile an hour winds.

Right, the snowball.

Now it's now it's just hard to do everything but right, So lose the ability to run before you lose the ability to throw.

I remember Brady also talking about in the snow, and this kind of goes to your point about footing in the trenches.

He was like, I was never under any pressure because these pass rushers could not get off the ball and because they're footing, they were like pitter pattering, you know, and there was never any pressure on the quarterback.

So if it's not windy, if it's not like a driving wind or something like that, then it absolutely is a throw the ball type of weather if you can again, you know, cut it through the wind right.

And I think that we hear so many analysis is, you know, leading into snow games, like well they're gonna have to run it forty times because it's snowing.

No, no, no, if it's if it's windy, you got to run it right.

Well, because I think people get mixed up because in the rain you don't want to throw the ball because the grip and all that.

But like this, the ball doesn't get as wet in the snow, if that makes sense.

And again it depends on the kind of snow and the storm you're dealing with.

But so the boy, how many yards did Brady throw four in that snowstorm against the Titans.

Which like three hundred in the first half, And that was one where touchdown passes in the first It was snowing hard.

That was not a windy day they threw.

They threw a deep bombed flee flicker to Randy Moss in the middle of the of the snow.

It's twenty nine nine, I think, So I want to find what the weather was that day.

I think it was nine.

Yeah it was.

I don't know why.

I always forget if that's O nine or I.

Think he threw six touchdown passes in the first half if I remember correct.

Thirty nine degrees ten mile an hour wins.

So it was breezy but not windy.

Yeah, that's like in snow like that's a great day to throw the football.

Brady threw for three hundred and eighty yards and then Brian Hoyer tacked on fifty two more.

Yeah, I mean he was going for the record of touchdown passes in a game at one point, and I think they just decided it was more important to keep them upright, and it was to go for records, individual records.

So the little bye week exercise that we wanted to do, and then we'll take some more calls and emails.

There's a lot of talk around town about, you know, blueprints and like who do you fear, and like which team worries you the most and all that kind of stuff.

So in typical cashway two fashion, I thought it'd be cool if we actually like reverse engineer this.

Yeah, so we're going to talk about how we would defend the Patriots, and you attack the Patriots, and then I want to talk about which teams in the AFC could press those buttons the best, you know, which teams could actually execute the game plan.

So let's start with the Patriots offense.

And I know there's been there's been talking.

I think Phil Perry was the first one that kind of had this take about Drake may potentially being blueprint proof.

And I agree to the extent that, like he's at the point now where like you can only hope to slow him down, You're not going to completely stop him.

I think, but that doesn't that there aren't ways that he's less efficient than others.

I think that where that take might come from, I didn't hear Phil's whole thing, so I apologize from stepping on or whatever.

But like every time this year the offense as a whole has struggled with something and we come in here next week, like, oh they struggle with that, they come out the next week and they dominate in that facet of the game, and that's credit to Drake, that's credit to the rest of the office, credit to the coaching staff.

So it feels a little and there's more things that they'll be approached with right that they're going to need to take care of.

So I don't want to say he's blueprint proof, but to this point, every time we think there's a blueprint, they come out the next week and they beat whatever that scheme is fair enough.

So I think there's two ways that I look at them right now and say, if I was defending the Patriots offense, this is what I would do.

Yep, I would say the first one is probably what I would lean on the most, uh, and that is just drop everybody in coverage.

Yeah, seven eight guys in coverage drop eight, you know that type of thing.

I think the best reps that I've seen against Drake May on third down specifically were by Cleveland and Tampa and they played drop eight coverage, So they dropped seven guys technically in coverage.

Yeah, one was a spy on Drake May and then they rushed three.

So I think that's probably the best way to do it, because I think the second that you blitz him, that's a no go.

I think you have to spy him because of his mobility, whether it's extending blazer scrambling.

So I think the drop eight strategy is something that is such a tiny little sample size that it's too small of a sample size to have an exact measurement on.

He's only phased ten dropbacks of drop eight all year, so it's like that's you can't really base it on any numbers.

You really can't.

The other things, you really can't play that way an entire game, you can't.

It's really only like a third and long, third and medium type of thing.

But he has a negative EPA.

Against drop eight, tiny tiny sample size, but he does have a negative EPA and strap A, so that would be the first thing that I would try if I was going up against Drake May.

Three man rush, one man spy, seven guys in coverage, try to flood the field with defenders and go that route.

You know, back in what week was the Browns game, week seven weeks whatever, we gave whatever it was the Carson Sweessinger pick in the first half.

Sweeshinger on that play was actually the spy and he threw it to the spy.

That was three man rush, spy, seven guys with man coverage, like and I think that's sort of been the best blueprint I've seen against Drake.

The other thing that I would try a little bit, and we talked about this a little bit with the Bills, I would try to play some man coverage against this Patriots team.

I think their receivers are good.

I don't know if their receivers are great.

I would try to man up on the Patriots receivers.

Drake May's efficiency just a little bit worse against man than it is against zone.

He's the best zone quarterback in the league right now, first and EPA against zone, So if you play him in man, you're spying him.

That's what I would try to do.

I wouldn't blitz Nope, And I wouldn't play like conventional zone because he's gonna find the opening.

I'm playing, you know, three deep I'm taking.

I'm basically copy and pasting most of the Josh Allen game plan.

Yeah, play deep, take away the deep ball, force them to drive the ball eight ten to twelve plays to make them be perfect.

Rush plans that encourage them to use the run game more than they probably want to, and make them nicklin dine their way down the field.

Make them be perfect.

That'd be my game plan.

The one thing I would change from how we typically talk about Allen is I don't want Drake May.

I want Drake May stepping up in the pocket.

I don't want him getting out of the pocket, especially when he rolls to his right.

You know some quarterbacks it's flush him out because it takes away the opposite side of the field.

Drake's arm is too big for that.

He can roll out to his right in the whole field is still at his disposal.

I want him and he can.

Also, he's a better runner when he gets outside the pocket.

You know, if he's going to step up in the pocket and then just kind of run and get five or six yards, I'll take that as a win and I'll make him do that all day.

So I'm with you in a lot of it.

I'm taking away the deep ball, I'm taking away the sidelines.

Force him to be short accurate in the middle of the field and make him do that for eight, ten, twelve plays.

And if he wants to run, he has to run stepping up through the pocket where there's going to be a spy waiting for him, rather than you know, allowing him to get to the outside and now he can outrun the spy or he can throw the ball because he has more room.

Like I'm not, I would rather allow him to scramble up the middle than let him leave the pocket and do whatever he's going to do outside the pocket.

So I just think that, you know, when you look at some of the numbers, and then you will you look at the eye test.

Yeah, with Drake May, I don't understand.

One of the things that I just am perpexed by, along with some of the blitzing that teams have done against him, the Patriots are still seeing a extremely high rate of single high state.

I don't understand this, and it really does surprise me.

And I think that the obvious the obvious thing I think is that they feel like their weapons on the outside aren't very good, and so they just don't have a ton of fear for Kaishawn, Booty maccollins, Kyle Williams, those guys running the ball down, you know, beating them down the field, whatever you think of those three names that I just named.

Though, when the quarterback is putting the ball on a on a penny, you know, right, and he's putting the ball right on their hands fifty yards down the field, these guys are still NFL receivers that they're going to catch more of those passes than they're not going to catch, right, So they might not create a ton of separation.

They might not be you know, prime Randy Moss running down the sideline, but when Drake Mays is so accurate on the deep ball, they're still pros like they're still going to catch the ball when it hits them in the hands more times than not.

So the Patriots right now are still seeing a league high rate.

I think it's they're there one or two I can't remember off the top of my head, and how much single high safety they're seeing Drake may is second in the league and EPA against single high He's third in the league in passer rating if you want to use traditional passer rating.

His traditional passer rating against single high safety coverage is one hundred and ten.

And teams keep doing it.

So again, like we're kind of both saying, like, at what point does a team say, Nah, we're putting the top on the defense.

You're second in the league and it is supposed to pass rate.

We're not allowing this him to just deep ball his way down the field.

We're gonna make you march.

You're gonna have to score in the red zone, which has been a problem for them.

Like, that's what I would do.

I would play Ben don't break against the Patriots.

If you want to simplify it and make it as simple as you possible.

I basically play the defensive Patriots have been playing this year.

Yeah, Ben don't break on the other side of the ball.

This is a very interesting sort of split between eye tests and numbers that we have going on here.

The eye test would tell you that if you look at the Patriots defense on paper, you would want to attack their linebackers in safeties and coverage.

You know, tight ends, running backs, middle of the field, and in the beginning of the season that was absolutely bearing out with the numbers.

The numbers in the beginning of the year and all three of those categories were poor.

They've really leveled off, they've kind of steadied the ship in this regard, and now the numbers are actually saying they're a very good pass defense for the most part against the middle of the field and against tight ends and backs.

But it still feels like, if you want to beat the Patriots, throwing at Carlton Davis and Christian Zales and Marcus Jones is not as good of an idea as throwing against Robert Splain, Jack Gibbons, Christianelli's, Craig Woods and Jalen Hawkins.

And that's some disrespect to those players.

It's just obvious.

Do you want to throw at the all pro corner or do you want to throw at the linebackers and safeties in the middle of the field.

So I think, because we've talked about this a little.

Bit off the air, that you still fall in that category that if you were playing the Patriots, you would still try to work the middle of the field, work the tight ends.

Do that so yeah, I think the big thing for me is I'd be pretty play action heavy.

And so some of this is like, Okay, wegame planning for them with or without Milton Williams, because you know, if Milton Williams is in there, outside runs into play action and then target the tight end and then try to get some speed in the slot and use that to stretch the vertically.

The Patriots have not been very good against play action this year.

They're twenty fifth in the league in yards per play allowed to play action.

I know that's a dinosaur stat to you, but I think their EPA isn't great either.

If I'm right in that regard, I'm not going to try to act like I understand it, but hit the play action.

Now, if they don't have Milton Williams, it's a more you know, inside gap run game, but I'm still hitting the play action off that.

And again, I want to hit the tight end and and I want to get some speed in the slot, keep the ball away from those outside corners, and then if they're going to play that off coverage that they've been playing, you know, bring those outside receivers underneath into the middle of the field and throw the ball there.

Yeah, so I think we're kind of on the same page.

Again for the most part, I wrote down just aggressive early down passing.

I still think that if you look at the Patriots both eye test and numbers, Yeah, they're first and second down pass defense is where they're the most vulnerable.

They're they're twenty fourth in the league right now and early down EPA per drop back.

So like they don't stop a lot of teams on first and second down, they're great on third down.

They and they that's what they do, right, They kind of stall a lot of teams, like right outside the red zone, right, there's a lot of those types of drives that they kind of get onto the other side of the fifty and they'll face a third down at like they're the Patriots like thirty five or forty years right.

Around midfield and we're down.

Oh.

That also reminds me to go back to the offense real quick, something I do.

Yeah, or like a point of mind of I'm defending the Patriots offense, I wouldn't be like part of the reason I'm sitting back.

Let him get in the red zone, let him get to a goal, because they've they've struggled there.

Yeah, so I look at the way that you know, I if I was, like, you know, just talking about Buffalo specifically because of this week.

If I was Buffalo, I throw the ball forty five times.

I throw it early, and I throw it often.

See, that's where it gets weak because I don't I've talked to It's funny we've come full circle because I've talked about the Bills doing this against the Patriots.

You can't try to reinvent yourself that aggressively in the NFL, because even if that's the ideal game plan, if you don't have the players to execute it, and I know people are, that's not right.

But in who's he throwing to?

Yeah, you said before, like that's been a big part of the reason I would be nervous if I'm the Bills throwing even with that quarterback.

That's how bad I think their weapons are.

And by the way their lines all banged up, it's not forget to state their line is in Yeah, I would not like in theory, that's the way to play the Patriots.

I think you're right.

Big picture, do the Bills, even with Josh Allen, do the Bills have the talent necessary to pull off that game plan, so I don't know that they do.

We'll get to it in a second, because then I want to talk about teams that can hit these buttons.

So twenty fourth in early down pass EPA, they're twenty ninth and explosive play rate allowed on first and second down, So I just I think a lot of teams and they also played a ton of zone on first and second down.

There's seventy five percent zone on first and second down.

So we've taken many of calls and emails about this, Alex, about people frustrated with all the soft zone coverage, you know, off coverage, soft zone.

If you're willing to take those profits against the Patriots, those opportunities are there.

You don't want to get into.

Third down against them.

You don't want to allow them to play, you know, put their man coverage on the field like that.

That's really what you don't want to get into with the Patriots defense.

But I do think their early down pass defense can still be had and maybe some of that goes to the tight end and the play action and all that good stuff that you were talking about as well.

So that is what we would do.

That's the self scout right of the pots.

Now the question is is which teams could execute that the best in the AFC playoff picture.

And I think we're going to disagree on our order here pretty significantly, So I'm looking forward to this.

I will put this one caveat on my order.

If Daniel Jones was healthy for the Indianapolis Colts, I'd probably have them a lot higher on the list.

So again, you're you're sleeping on, Philip Rivers.

If Daniel Jones was healthy for the Colts.

A team that could take away explosive plays on offense, you know, for the Patriots offense to them on defense, A team that could attack early down, you know, pass defense that could throw to the tight end that you know, had a lot of play action on first and second down like that.

You're kind of that's the Colts like that.

That's that's what they are.

They don't have Daniel Jones, so they don't have their quarterback.

They're going with forty four year old grandpa over there.

Your favorite story good of all time, Philip Rivers, Where which team fears you the most?

Which team do you worry about the most that can hit those buttons.

In terms of attacking the Patriots defense in terms of attacking the Patriots like what they're I mean, I definitely think there's teams that can pull off that defensive I think there's more team the defensive game plan we laid out, and granted it's a lot less complex, yeah, but I think there's more teams that can execute that defensive game plan that can execute the offensive, you know, in terms of the teams that can can hit some of that play action stuff, that have the tight ends, that have the slot receiver talent, like one of them.

One of the teams I go to is the Chargers.

They play that way, they like to play that way, but I all, they're so banged up and let them come here in the winter and deal with the cold and like so that.

You know, I thought about the Charges because I have a lot of respect for Herbert.

But they're just not that good.

I just don't see it like they kind of can do the it's it's Jimmy's and Joe's not Exits and O's.

I think they have the talent that dictates that game plan, but I don't think they're going to run it at that high of a level that it's going to be an issue you know again, the Steelers kind of want to play that way.

Yep.

But Aaron Rodgers is I know, we played really well last week.

I this is the problem that I was having, Like, the teams with the talent on offense don't play the way that you need to play to beat the Patriots defense.

The teams that stylistically play that way don't have the talent.

The Steelers are maybe in the middle.

Look credit to Rogers.

Last week was the best I've seen him, look since probably Green Bay.

He was all right.

I thought he's pretty good in that game, But like, can he still do that every week?

Or was that just one last game from Rogers?

Is just so slow And if I'm facing the Patriots, like speed and explosiveness is what I'd want, And it just.

So I just I And I know they beat the Patriots already this year, but they scored twenty one points in a game where the Patriots turned the ball over five times.

Right, So yeah, maybe the Ravens, but are they gonna make it?

Yeah, this is exactly what seould happened when I was trying to make my list.

Yeah, the Colts don't have their quarterback, right, the Chargers don't have their tackles right, which I think is huge.

And it's also just we know what happens when the Chargers come here in January, and know what that looks like and Herbert has one hand yep, the Steelers are a corpse.

I'm sorry that was mean, but it's the truth.

I think they played well last week.

I don't think it's sustainable, but I do think they played well last They played better, but I think they played pretty.

That was as good as I seen them look all.

Year that the tape for Rogers was fine.

It wasn't anything great.

He made one really good play to DK Metcalf, extended to the play and the hit Metcalf coming across the field.

He hit him on a bomb, their first bomb in like two months.

And well, that's what I'm saying.

I don't think it's sustainable, but credit where credits?

Do I think that?

You know how I feel about Tomlin.

I'm just not so Steelers in theory could do it.

I just think the Steelers are kind of bad.

Frankly, the Coles don't have their quarterback.

The Chargers are all sorts of banged up all across their roster.

I agree with you that Baltimore.

I faced snuck in, would be would be frisky in this regard, I still have the Bills Number one.

I still have the Bills.

I think the Bills for two reasons.

You know, we talked a lot about slot receivers tight ends.

They might not have great outside receiver talent, but shak here's their best guy.

Right, But you don't win against the Patriots with outside receiver talent unless you're the Falcons and Drake London just goes nutty.

That shak here's your best guy.

Yeah, Kincaid and Knox can play.

They can do the early down, throw it, play action, put the game in Josh Allen's hands just fine, and they can play two deep safeties over the top of it of an offense.

Let's see what it looks like on Sunday.

Yeah, but in theory, I still look at Buffalo as the most complete team other than the Patriots right now.

So there's also that element of having to play a team three times.

Yeah, that scares me, Like that's especially if the Patriots win this week.

Like, beating a team three times is not easy to do.

If we're going to talk about most well rounded, it's probably Buffalo.

But if Houston's defense alone, so Houston was number two, might be more worrying to me than the entire package.

And then there's Denver, like Denver's on that level if they have to go to Denver.

If Denver's coming here, I'm not as worried.

So Houston's don't have to do that whole thing.

No, Houston's number two on my list.

So I had Buffalo and I had Houston.

And by the way, these are the six and seven seeds.

Now this is probably they'd play if they ended up with the two seeds.

So the reason why I had Houston slightly lower than Buffalo's obvious their offense and their quarterback.

But I do think that Stroud's good.

I don't know if I think he's as good as Paul Parillo, but I think he's good.

But you know, I think he's he's good enough.

Their offense has had a lot of struggles this year.

They've had some really ugly stretches.

Offensively, Nick Cayley is the first time play collar just kind of trying to figure it out, and it's not always been pretty.

But they have Stroud Wood he Mark is giving them a little something in their run game.

Nico Collins is a beast, the Schultz is a solid, decent enough kind of hunter, Henry tight end for them, and then of course that defense is just phenomenal.

So is there a better individual unit in the AFC than the Houston Texans defense.

I think I'd take them over with the Broncos at this point.

They're very good.

They're very good, and they play a lot of like man or match coverage in the back end where it's not technically man, it's more like quarters, but it becomes man.

And they're very, very good.

They're a better unit than the Texans defense.

I don't think there's any.

The Bills in the Patriots offenses are really good.

I don't I don't think either one's better in a Texans maybe not, maybe not.

The Texans defense is great.

I just don't know if I if I fully am there with the Texans offense where well.

That's why I say it is they're a better unit, right, so they out of it.

They beat the Bills twenty three to nineteen.

Yeah, a really bad game for Buffalo offensively, eight sacks, turnovers, the whole thing.

If the Patriots find themselves in a twenty three to nineteen game.

I kind of like, I'm cool with playing.

They've won that game all year, like I you know, like against lesser teams.

But yeah, but they've won that.

They've won like a pseudo rite fight all year.

They can beat that.

They can beat the Texans.

Yeah, it's not gonna be easy.

There's easier opponents there, but they can beat the Texans.

So Buffalo one, Houston two, and then regugging ly, the Denver Broncos number three.

I mean, I think there's a clear gap between those three.

I mean, look, Baltimore is still kind of lurking.

The Chiefs are still kind of lurking.

Lamar doesn't look right.

The Chiefs don't look right to me.

It's Buffalo number one, A, Houston and at Denver would be one B.

Yeah, and then you get like i'd probably say Denver here.

Then Baltimore would be the next tier, and then it's everybody else, like, bring me the Jags, bring me the Chargers, bring me Pittsburgh.

There's no doubt that Denver's defense could execute the plan that we said, No doubt, no they they whatsoever.

Yeah, they'd be great.

But if we're right, and the way to beat the Patriots is to attack their pass defense, especially on person second down.

That is a lot of bonis all take CJ.

Stroud and Nico Collins over Bonick and Courtland sut so, just to.

Buy the numbers in terms of early down pass efficiency, Buffalo's third in the league, Houston's twelfth, so good but not great, fine, Denver's twentieth, so like, just looking at it.

This is why I've kept saying, and this is why I've been consistent on this.

What worries me the most.

And I know this is kind of like, well, duh, it's the quarterbacks.

It's the quarterbacks.

Like all these I don't want to face in the playoffs.

If I had to say who I am afraid of?

I don't want to face the great quarterbacks, Like if you give me a game against Bonnicks, or you give me a game against Trevor Lawrence, or you give me a game against Grandpa over there in Indianapolis.

So let's do let's say, let's let's do the exercise real quick.

There's eight teams for five hundred in the AFC right now, Yes, rank the quarterbacks.

I'm to do first or worst or worst?

First?

Are we counting the Patriots including the Patriots ranked the quarterbacks.

People aren't gonna like this.

You're gonna put Josh Allen first, aren't you?

Josh Allen?

I guess he's been there before.

There, you know what I'm saying.

I'm so well fraudulently, but I'm so big on postseason experience, mattering.

I I have to be consistent.

There is definitely a very good chance that Drake May.

I will change my mind if Drake May wins on Sunday and wins in the playoffs.

Okay, he just hasn't done it yet.

No, that's it's it'sknown playing worse than Josh Allen.

He just has not done it.

I go to that Argumental Steve, you can break these into tears too if you want, so, Allan Yep May.

Yeah.

Herbert Herbert, same tier.

That's tough, all right, we won't do tears.

Herbert Herbert.

Yeah, he's so compromised.

But Lamar, we're only doing teams over five hundred for the rat so they're not counting.

Yeah, okay, well we'll do But okay, put Lamar in there with like an asterisk.

Yeah.

Lamar and mahomes not a part of this.

So Alan May, Herbert yeah, I probably go Stroud Stroud, Okay, next I'm with you.

Then it gets tough because all these other guys kind of me.

I mean, if you're gonna way experience, the next guy Rogers has to be Rogers.

Yeah, he's just not been good.

He's just he's throwing a lead balloon out there.

Well, so you're down to Rogers, Knicks and Lawrence and Rivers slash Rod.

I would say, oh man, you.

Want to put Lawrence ahead of Rod?

Like, you're not gonna put Nicks ahead of Rogers.

I know you.

This is tough.

This is this is not we're not picking from any any grace.

While we're doing the exercise, I thought this might be fun.

I would say this year, out of that group, bo Nix has probably been the best, better than Rogers.

Yes, just to be objective, nothing but objective.

I'm fair, all right, I would say bo Knicks this season has been better.

Well, yeah, we're talking about this is an all time ranking.

We're talking about this year going into the playoffs, Rogers, Lawrence, Rogers ahead of Lawrence, and then Colts.

So you have Alan May, Herbert Stroud, Ye drop off.

I think we can say there's a drop off there, and you have Lamar in that top tier if he makes it most too, Nicks, Rogers, Lawrence, and then the Colts, I might move Lawrence up.

I think he's trending in the right direction right now.

They've taken less off of his plate, not to do that whole thing, but they're running the ball a lot better and a lot more, and it's kind of leveled the plane a little bit for him.

Whenever he puts Whenever you have to put the ball in Trevor Lawrence's hands at a high volume, he becomes a turnover mission.

I think that's just a ton like.

I think him and Knicks in some ways are similar in that regard.

I think there's I relistically obviously maybe like is starting to figure it out, yeah, and just starting to catch my eye a little bit.

But I just have I do have.

Some faith in Peyton in terms of like managing yeping Nicks on.

The Rogers to me's the wild card, do you get it's my last run, I'm gonna throw it back whatever.

Although he's never been good in the playoffs to begin with, he looks he just looks like a classic.

He plays the exact same way he always has yeah, but his skills.

Are like at like sixty five percent.

If we get capacity.

Rogers Rivers in the playoffs the Grandpa Bowl, I I would go crazy, feel pretty confident.

I know they lost to them earlier on in the season.

I'd feel pretty confident that Patriots would blow out the Steelers if they played the Steelers.

I think it'd be comfortable.

You don't see how many blowouts in the playoffs I think would be comfortable.

I'm not talking about like a forty point blow I'm talking about this was game was never really in doubt.

I think the Patriots would handle so.

Evan's Evan.

His current rankings of quarterbacks over five hundred in the AFC, so very specific.

Lamar and Mahomes are not a part of this or to I guess I should say, because they're technically in the mind.

I got to be honest with Roh and this is gonna be hot.

Takey.

I don't know where I would put Mahomes right now on this list.

I don't like, he's definitely not over mayor Allen, Like would you put him over Herbert?

I mean maybe maybe just because Herbert's got like one hand, do you put him over Stroud.

Yeah, okay, yeah, third or fourth, But.

Like that's for a guy that's won three Super Bowl You're right, But like I I'm not.

I don't totally blame Mahomes for what's happening in Kansas City because the ross around him is eroded.

It's very uh oh nine to nineteen Brady, right, like whichever one of those you want to pick.

Yeah, it's obviously in the point of his career.

It's more like O nine.

But it reminds me more of the end of the run for the Patriots, where you know, Kelsey and Gronk are starting to you know, both kind of run out of steam.

You know, you have to transition away from like the Cooks era, right or like eras one year the Cooks you know, I was thinking Tyreek Kill era, you know, Tyreek Kill era, where like the Patriots had like Brandon Cooks for a year, they had some you know, outside receiver talent here and there.

Uh you know, Moss obviously going back a little bit further, But I don't think that Mahomes is like absolved of what's going on.

He doesn't really like he's just hasn't been as good.

Like I don't have to get too technical about it.

He just hasn't been as good.

So you know what, maybe we uh maybe we make this a weekly thing between now in the playoffs and years see what happens.

Well, just ranking the the QB playoffs.

Yeah, and uh more to you know, the the Dolphins, Chiefs and Ravens could all be five hundred next week.

So well, I'd be interested to see what the quarterbacks become relevant if people want to, you know, at tweet at us.

But Evan's rankings again, Evans quarterback rankings among teams that are over five or five hundred or over in the AFC.

Josh Allen, Drake, May, Justin, Herbert C.

J.

Stroud, Bo Nicks, Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence, and the Colts are last whatever that thing is, Riley Leonard, Philip Rivers.

The You know, I did want to touch a little bit on some of these other games, but I know people have been waiting on hold as well.

The Chargers.

I watched a lot of that Chargers the game, basically watch the whole game, the Chargers Eagles game, yep, I just every time, and I know I know they're decimated, I know they're they're missing Joel and Rashaan Slater, which is, you know huge, Herbert's got one hand and you know has a broken hand, and then he's like all his throwing arms like all blood eat or in the game like he's just fallen apart because he's under pressure on like sixty five percent of his dropbacks because they have no offensive line.

So I don't know if that is going to withstand the test of time because of how much he's getting just beaten and battered behind that offensive line.

Like do they have four more regular season games and a postseason running them if you're the Chargers.

But what I'm getting at just big picture, they still play Houston.

What I'm getting at big picture with the Chargers, I think Jim Harbaugh has.

Done exactly what you would expect and experienced coach to do, which is like they are a relevant, competent football team.

But has Jim Harbaugh made them like a wagon?

Like No, they're not like a real Super Bowl contend No.

And I think one of the things that and again I maybe it was this might be more on your side the street.

Maybe it was.

It was that type of game to kick all the field goals right, like there was a defensive struggle.

He took the points, YadA, YadA, YadA.

But I'm just talking in general.

I just don't think that they're a very aggressive football team.

And I just don't think that you win in the playoffs, especially when you're undermanned if you aren't.

And I'm not just talking about fork down, I'm talking just in general, right like, just if you don't or if you're not kind of a pedal to the metal team.

He's a very conservative like, let's, you know, just try to back our way into victories.

And maybe that's just where they're at with the Chargers, like in terms of their roster and all that, you know, their injuries and all that kind of stuff.

But you know, that's what I see.

You know, I just don't see a great team right now.

What do you think of the Jaguars, You're like, are you a believer in the jack I'm.

Kind of with you, Like they're they're a solid football team.

I don't know that there are anything more than that.

They're not bad, but I don't look at them as like you said, they're not a juggernaut.

They're not a team that's going to come in and blow doors.

Like they're fine They've had some very good turnover.

Look like they're turned like they have these games like this game against the Colts without Daniel Jones, they turn it all over three times, you know, Indianapolis did, and that really is what extended the lead.

They've run the ball a little bit, yeah, and that that's definitely helping them balance out their offense.

It's a it's an impressive turnaround.

You know, Liam Coenes had a really good first season.

If they if Ben Johnson and Mike Rable didn't have his two teams, their two teams winning the division, you know, like it would be I don't think the Bears are winning their divisi anymore now that they lost the Packers.

I don't know where that's at, but they you know, Liam Cole would be getting more shine if those two guys weren't where they were at.

A couple of other things on this slate, Hey, good for the Denver broncos Man.

You finally actually blew out a bad team.

Good for you.

I mean you still only won by one score.

Yeah, it was the one score game, but it was a backdoor.

Those one score game was a back door cover.

One of the smelliest as Joe Murray likes to say, back door covers I've ever seen, but it was you dominated that game against the Raiders, So good for you.

Good, good for you, Denver.

You finally dominated a bad team.

Where are you at with the Chiefs?

The Chiefs are dead, I mean this year they are you know, they they sell mahomes and he's not retiring after this year, I don't think.

But they're They need a full reset.

They need a full reset around them.

And you know, this is why we said when everybody want to compare him to Brady, like, all right, you had a nice little, what five seven year run, which is impressive in the NFL.

You're not really supposed to dominate for more than three or four at a time.

They did more than that.

It's not twenty they had a dynasty.

It was just they only had one half of the dynasty.

Well, they had one dynasty, not two.

Right, the Patriots have had two dynasties connected as one.

Brady never missed playoffs on his prime and he never finished I think his last year in Tampa they were eight and nine.

So one year at the very end in his forties he finished under five hundred.

The other thing that's going to happen that.

I'm surprised more people aren't having this conversation.

Maybe people more intimate with the Chiefs understand why like that, it's not time to have this conversation.

If you want to compare the two and say, Okay, the Chiefs are gonna well, you can't punish the Chiefs too much because the Patriots had a couple down years in the middle or down years never looked like this, but relatively down years in the middle where they reset.

The one thing the Patriots never had to do was reset the coach.

And how much longer is Andy Reid going to do this?

I keep bringing this up, and I think I said he was close to seventy.

He's sixty seven.

I said that yesterday.

Now I would still call sixties seven turning sixty eight.

Close to seventy's old.

But he's sixty seven, close to sixty eight, and he's it.

Just when you watch the Chiefs, I know a lot of it's situationally, like they used to be so good at those big moments and they're not making those plays this year.

But schematically offensively, they've gotten a little bit stale.

And some of that, to me, is that not only is it Andy Reid this whole time, but they also just brought Matt and aggy back a couple of years ago and hit him the offensive coordinator.

So I think that that offense needs some livening up.

And when he came from Philly to Kansas City, he hired Brad Childress.

Remember Brad Childress.

He hired Brad Childrens as like, I want to say that Brad Childress was like an air raid coordinator for Kansas City.

Like basically what bad Brad Childress did is he took Andy Reid's West Coast offense and he merged it with the air raid.

His title was spread Game Analysts.

Spread Game Analyst, I do it was something like that.

That was actually before Mahomes even got there.

Yeah, this was the Alex Smith into Mahomes.

So they took the old school, traditional West Coast offense that Andy Reid has always run and they merged it with like the new concepts in college, you know, spread RBO air raid concepts that are in college.

And that led to some really good years with Alex Smith and then it led to some great years with Patrick Mahomes.

So what's if Andy Reid is going to keep doing this?

Does he one have like the give a shit meter to actually go out and do this?

But two, what is like the next iteration for Kansas?

Also, just like whether it's this year or not, this is another one of He's people are gonna stay doing the drama again.

But I mean this from a pure football standpoint.

I'm not trying to play succession here.

Who, Like, do you who do they hire to replace him?

Is it Steve Spagnolo?

No?

Are they going to get an offensive mine?

But like, you've had this success, do you want to bring in somebody who's been there and knows how it works?

Can you hire from the outside?

Usually a quarterback like Patrick Malmes?

I guess Peyton Manny went through a couple of head coaches, but like, yeah, those jobs aren't usually open.

When you have a quarterback like that, it.

Would be the number one job in the league.

That will but you look at the rate it probably won't be.

But you look at the rest of the roster, there's gonna be work to do, so I don't think there's as much work to do Defensively, I think they still some of those guys getting old.

Well, Chris Jones getting old, But I still think that you have players in the secondary.

Try McDuffie is still in his prime.

Like, I still think you can build with that defense.

Offensively, I agree, their offensive line has been in shambles for the last couple of years, going back to you know, some of the Super Bowls and stuff like that.

Yeah, I just think who replaces Andy Reid in Kansas City's a fascinating and again this.

Year it's a double edged thing, right, It's like, does Andy Reid have the gas in the tank to essentially rebuild?

I wasn't even considering in that regard, but yeah.

You know, does he have the does he have the gas in the tank to essentially do a mini rebuild like an O nine Patriots rebuild?

Or do they have a succession plan or do they have another head coach in mind?

Reads not up for that that they can turn this thing.

That's what I'm curious, Like, is there a succession plan in place?

Are they going to do like a full coaching search they you know, is there going to be a push for Mahomes to hire internally?

Maybe Mahomes want Matt and Aggy, Maybe they want but like we've seen what Matt Naggie is his head coach now didn't Patrick Mahomes, but we've seen what Matt Naggie is as a head coach, and like it's going to be interesting.

So the last team I wanted to talk a little bit about because they play them next week is the Baltimore Ravens, and we'll we'll talk a lot more about the Ravens next week.

But this is the one thing that I kind of wrote down here, like, are we sure that at this at his current state with his health, Like, is this version of the Lamar like really that?

Like I think Lamar right now has been very, very pedestrian.

I think he's earned the benefit of the doubt that when the lights get bright, and maybe he's too late now they're six and seven, but he's maybe earned a benefit of the doubt that when the lights get bright he can flip the switch and be that guy.

Sure, but yeah, the way he's played since he came back, like it looks like he's still hurt.

He doesn't look right.

Yeah, I think the biggest thing with him in terms of how he looks, he just doesn't pull away from the pursuit of the defender anymore, like because he doesn't have is he's compromised.

Is an ankle injury, right y ain gole knee like he's just he's so it's again, his sack rate is like doubled.

Like when you watch him, I try to extend plays, he's just not getting He's not pulling away from.

The defense anymore.

You know, the last play of the game last week, essentially like alex Heighsmith just sacks him in the pocket when it's one of it's like a hail Mary kind of like situation.

But they actually were at i think the Pittsburgh like thirty or thirty five, so what it was they a hell Mary, But it wasn't like one of those like on the other side of the fifty that really they were going to be able to get the ball in the end zone.

And he just takes a sack like you would never see that.

He would spin out of it, scramble out of it, extend the play and at least get a pass off.

And now you're just not seeing him do that anymore.

So I'm really interested to see what kind of Ravens team the Patriots get next week, because they just flex this Ravens team into primetime.

It might say more about the Patriots and the Ravens.

But the Ravens are still mathematically alive, but there's a very good chance of that Ravens team is six and eight and is like not really mathematically alive like.

It is, but like is hanging on by a thread.

And because they play the Bengals this coming up week and they just lost to the Bengals on Thanksgiving.

So I just I don't know where the Ravens are at right now.

I also don't know what the Steeler but to make of the Steelers either, I.

Again, I was impressed by what they did against the Ravens, But the question is is that them turning a corner?

Was it just like one random great punch.

I think it might have been that.

All Right, you guys got to be quick, but we'll take these calls.

Sean is in Vancouver.

What's up, Sean?

I got to play a bit of a nostra domesare.

I see the Patriots winning out the rest of the season, having the best record in the NFL and the number one seed, and they're going to beat Jacksonville and then Houston, which will be the toughest game for them with that great defense, but they'll they'll prevail.

Also, if when the Bills drop eight into coverage on Sunday, Henderson's going to take a screen in for a touchdown.

Now I have an idea also about I don't let me know what you think about this, to try and fix the goal line offense.

Now, you bring in the jumbo package on first down, try and ram up the middle.

If that doesn't work, you keep the same personnel and then you do a play action pass role option.

Right, may will run it in if you can.

Otherwise it's going to pass to Henry for a touchdown.

What do you think?

All right, I'll let you go on out.

Thanks, Sean.

Yeah, they run like one or I think it's one pass play with Kiris Tonga on the field.

Yeah, you know that's obviously there as an option.

You know, he hasn't been healthy, so they I think they probably would have done it earlier.

Maybe I don't know if they do.

It against the Giants and why there's no reason to use that against the Giants.

But I'm not necessarily talking about throwing it to Tonga.

I'm just saying like that's out on the table right.

Uh.

The other thing, and what was the other thing that he said?

I don't remember.

I had a point, but I forgot Derek is in South Carolina.

What's up, Derek?

Hey all, real quick, So I actually remember that Patriots standing against the Titans and two thousand nine because I had Brady and Moss on my fantasy team.

Oh there you go.

That would be And you all talk still about Jill Brady and like the Bill is very predictable, like a sixth place set when he came from LSU to Carolina with Matt Rule.

That was a knock on him at the Panthers that the offense was so predictable in certain situations.

So the question I have for y all is, real quick, if you're the Bill offensive defensive coordinator on this, are you going to use like the Patriots missing Williams and maybe missing Tanga as an option for perfect play action?

You run the run of play action, dive linebackers come up and all of a sudden, you dropped it right over them, and I appreciate it.

Thanks.

Yeah, I think that's exactly what the Bills are going to try to do.

That is what the Bills do.

You know.

That's their moo first play of the game last week against the Bengals, play action crosser adult knocks for a huge play So that's going to be what they try to do.

If I was the Patriots, like I was saying earlier, though, uh, they're you got a key on the fact that they don't marry.

In my opinion, they don't marry their their runs with their play actions particularly well.

So we used to talk about this all the time with like the Patricia Van Pelt offenses, where it was like they're running gap play action patterns routes, but they were running it with zone blocking or vice versa.

I feel like the Bills are kind of similar, yeah, and that they run a lot of gap play action, but they run the ball with a lot of zone So it's like this.

Is what remembered like some people were afraid of the Patriots doing this at the beginning of the year.

Yeah.

Yeah, So if you can, if you can kind of understand that, I think that you have a chance to stop it and be pretty good.

But yeah, it's an interesting point about Joe Brady.

I know that he's come under some fire in Buffalo.

Not everybody is a big Joe Brady fan right now in Buffalo.

So but then there's also people who want him to be the next head coach if they fire MC.

Yeah, yeah, you're right, all right, we'll be back next week.

We'll talk about this Rave, the Ravens game, we will, and the Bills game hopefully with some hats and some T shirts and division title in hands.

So we'll see about Sunday.

But we'll talk about this Bills game, the Ravens and all of it again next week, same time, same place here on Catch twenty two and then Patriots Unfiltered is up in nine minutes, so you'll see those guys and myself for a little bit at noon, and Alex will be back.

I'll Catch twenty two next week.

Thanks guys, thank you so much for watching.

We'll see you guys next week and hopefully the Patriots win the division on Sunday.

Bye.

Hey, this is Alex.

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