[SPEAKER_00]: and he swings, hit to high, and deep, and go!

[SPEAKER_00]: Still got it, man!

[SPEAKER_00]: Wow!

[SPEAKER_00]: All I have, got to come to the favorings.

[SPEAKER_00]: Need to center field, and it is gone!

[SPEAKER_00]: Wow, his first big league swing.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's gonna be a grand slam on the home run.

[SPEAKER_00]: Swagging drive, not tonight.

[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the show!

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, part two here of our 2021 top 100 prospect review.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're looking back at our first top 100 list at just baseball.com and they can into part, but this is the most fun part because we've got what the top 10 players Elijah now on the list to go through.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, just the top 10 now.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to be cool, man.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's, uh, it's, we went through, you know, zero, 100, it's through 11.

[SPEAKER_02]: Last time kind of picking through the most interesting names.

[SPEAKER_02]: And now we're going to go one by one through your top 10, which is pretty interesting because this was, you know, a year where there was a really clear top of the list, and then the rest of the list gets really interesting.

[SPEAKER_02]: And you had some guys in your top 10 that weren't top 10 consensus and vice versa.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I'm interested to get, because I know you did the recon, like, [SPEAKER_01]: the feedback on how people like shuffled around, maybe even the top five because seemed like it was kind of a non-negotiable in the top three, but you would see the top three in like different iterations, and like different versions, and you could kind of swap it any which way, and I don't think anybody was going to kill you for it, but it is funny the way things have worked out.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's a positive in the way that we had it, and then a negative, and it's just [SPEAKER_01]: fun wardrobe MLB conversation.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think to have with with those three players, but more more two of the three, I don't think there's much of a conversation on number one, who I don't know if he was consensus number one, but we'll get there number 10 starts off with a bang because it's.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's one of my goats, man.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was one of my early favorite prospects ever.

[SPEAKER_01]: And Brandon Davis and Gabriel Moreno, those two guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: And injuries have really held back both, Davis, too, a much more ridiculous degree.

[SPEAKER_01]: Who did sign a deal with the Seattle Mariners, minor league deal, that was broken by just baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: I will endlessly root for this guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: The talent was never a question.

[SPEAKER_01]: He really performed it every stop.

[SPEAKER_01]: Even last year before he got hurt again, he was averaging like a home where every three games.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just been health.

[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, I planted the flag there with Davis at 10 and unfortunately, injuries have held him back from being able to validate that ranking.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, so you had Brendan Davis as you said they're at 10.

[SPEAKER_02]: And yes, you did plan to flag, but I didn't realize in retrospect, looking at it that you planted a flag, but not that much compared to the industry, honestly, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: Fameras in 2021 at that time had him at 13.

[SPEAKER_02]: I wanted him at 10.

[SPEAKER_02]: Even pipeline going into 2022 had him at 15.

[SPEAKER_02]: So like, yes, you were definitely the highman on him and the only one that I saw in the top 10, but he was consensus top 25 pretty much everywhere else.

[SPEAKER_02]: So he still was one of those elite prospects, obviously, it hasn't come to fruition, but we've seen a guy that, you know, you were high on him for understandable reasons, but it's not like you were way higher than everyone in the industry on this guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think 2021 was probably more of the year where we're just really, really bought in and honestly, part of the reason why we were probably more bought in than the industry was that in 2021, really pushing him as a, you know, not 2021, excuse me, like 2021, [SPEAKER_01]: I'm trying to remember when it would have been maybe 2019, 2020, 2020 COVID time, or just earlier in the 2021 season, was that, like I said in the past, we didn't actually have as much access to information as we have now, and when you watch Davis years ago that the swing decisions were really solid, he didn't expand the zone too too much, but that was really buoyed by fastball.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's now kind of looking at it in retrospect.

[SPEAKER_01]: And there was more in zone with than I probably would have thought, you know, at the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think if I had the access to the numbers I've access to now, I probably would have been a little bit more skeptical.

[SPEAKER_01]: But the bad at ball angles were just so good.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm looking at 2021 in particular.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was a 35% ground ball, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: He had an EV 90 of 105 miles on our hard hit rate of 45%.

[SPEAKER_01]: But he was a guy that clearly had more room for strength than was going to continue to add more power, which he did.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I mean, it was a 75% zone contact, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: So the other thing was he struggled to recognize spin.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I so I think, you know, for some, [SPEAKER_01]: In the industry, they're probably identifying the fact that, hey, his swing decisions really take a hit against sliders and changeups and the swing strike rate really climbs up against sliders and changeups and that's a concern and I still think it would have been if he stayed healthy there was always the risk that he was going to swing and miss too much and that was something that I probably was.

[SPEAKER_01]: willing to overlook at the time and I think was definitely a relevant concern but it seems like you had gotten better and better.

[SPEAKER_01]: 2022 was just that lost season with injury where he put a rough numbers and then really a sense then it's just been a struggle to stay available and just be on the field period.

[SPEAKER_01]: 2023 was also a really ugly one but then you got 2024 where he was finally healthy.

[SPEAKER_01]: for even there's a couple months and gave you an eight 16 OPS and flashes of a ton of power and then last year, man, I mean, he was absolutely pulverizing balls before getting hurt again in fit 52 games.

[SPEAKER_01]: He had 17 homers with an EV 90 of a hundred seven miles per hour and I mean, we saw him pop in one 15s and I mean, the power is ridiculous now with the angles he creates and the EVs even if he strikes out a lot.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, at the very least, this looks like a guy that [SPEAKER_01]: You know, run into enough homer as dry as walks, but it's just a matter of staying healthy and I just don't know if you ever will.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, definitely one thing I'm curious about because we're looking at kind of the overall change of how you evaluate prospects.

[SPEAKER_02]: Do you think you've started to take just general with and chase concerns even more into account as you've kind of progressed in evaluating prospects?

[SPEAKER_02]: Because this is a guy where it's like, yeah, there was a ton of potential, but like even that 21 season I'm looking at it right like it was a 29% straight guy right in his freak out season, which is kind of crazy to think about because I don't feel like in the present [SPEAKER_02]: or on most of us that have those type of with concerns, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: I think yes, in the respect of getting to the blue chip range.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think like the top, top with teen or so is going to be that blue chip range, like that's probably to going of a deficiency to be in the blue chip range.

[SPEAKER_01]: The funny thing is, in the last few years, is we've continued to do this, like, [SPEAKER_01]: Zone contacts correlation to batting average has gotten a little bit weaker and a little bit weaker each each year, but there's there's certain thresholds that you still just you have to be able to push through and I think we talked about it with more economy right like he's going to be an outlier if he's productive without increasing his own contact and I think at a 75% zone contact and you know the low levels that's that's enough of a prerequisite probably like to.

[SPEAKER_01]: Or I would say it's a wrong word.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's enough of a yellow flag there to say I like him.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a top 100 guy, but there's too much baked in risk to have him as a top 10 guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: So can't you hear a question?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: And especially when it's fucked up against secondaries.

[SPEAKER_02]: Right, 100%.

[SPEAKER_02]: Going to the next guy, you already kind of mentioned the number nine guy in this list was Gabrielle Moreno, catcher in the at the time in the Vludes organization, obviously, now with the Diamondbacks, this is when were you actually were a little bit further up on him than in comparison to Davis, which I thought would be the opposite actually.

[SPEAKER_02]: But at the time, fan graphs late in 2021 had him at 32 on their list, and even on a lot of other lists, he was in that 20s range.

[SPEAKER_02]: You had Marino all the way up at nine.

[SPEAKER_02]: I remember even going into 2022, you were always really high in Marino when he was coming up to the big leagues.

[SPEAKER_02]: What was it that made you, you know, at this time three catchers in the top 10, I'm giving a little bit of a spoiler there, but like this guy was, you know, up there, not this quite the same tier, but up there with two at the time superstar level catching prospects.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is the kind of guy that I'll absolutely like the process would probably have me if if Morano reincarnated popped up this year, I think I'd still have him in the top 10 like with the same track record and everything because the big thing with Morano was I don't think anybody was out in the bat to ball.

[SPEAKER_01]: He he was continuing to get undersold in the raw power department and I'm even looking at 2021.

[SPEAKER_01]: He didn't hit it's on a homers.

[SPEAKER_01]: It didn't slug over, I actually had a pretty good slug.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it didn't hit a ton of homers.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think there was a little bit of concern of just like how much pop is in there.

[SPEAKER_01]: You even look at like 2019, I think there was just a bit of a question of like people were wondering whether it was in a fully trans-like power-wise at the highest level.

[SPEAKER_01]: But here in the 1990, a hundred formals per hour in a hard hit rate of 43%, as I'm looking at it now, I don't even know if I had access to those numbers.

[SPEAKER_01]: But you would watch him and just, [SPEAKER_01]: he's crushing balls like he was even the yard dead central 440 feet.

[SPEAKER_01]: He wasn't always getting that swing off, but you saw him get that off and he's trying to find that identity of like I'm clearly that to ball-driven guy in a natural hitter, but I also have this frame-defying pop and a little bit more batsby than I get credit for.

[SPEAKER_01]: How can I get into that a little bit more?

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that was it's still part of the question with him in the process, but he has [SPEAKER_01]: At least average, I think it's totally above average raw power.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we saw them the playoff run that the Diamondbacks add.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he popped like a 13 pull side and like off the wall.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you're like stuck in the wall and it also pulled some some monstrous home runs and it's like, this guy can this guy can run into baseballs.

[SPEAKER_01]: And again, there was no question about.

[SPEAKER_01]: the bats' ball.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then I think the other part that was underrated is like, how athletic he is.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a really, really good defender.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I felt like that part was underrated in his game as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's the kind of player and it's funny because we always think a lot of the feedback we generally get on our top 100 was just from the general public is like, [SPEAKER_01]: These are the players that we feel like you are higher.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I'm not as high on these guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: And this is more like public.

[SPEAKER_01]: Private wise, like in terms of when I get feedback from teams, they generally tend to agree with the, the catchers being right higher, but the public almost always has the catchers rated lower.

[SPEAKER_01]: And they're like, oh, I'm not that high on Cooper angle.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not that high on this or that guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's part of that as the fantasy aspect of the other part is like, you know, if you're you have a good chance to stick a catcher like that's extremely valuable and then if you have the defensive ability to be in a above average catcher, I always talk about like the barrier to entry offensively becomes a lot lower like you don't you don't need to be more than a hundred WRC plus if you're a 55 or 60 grade defender to be.

[SPEAKER_01]: a three-war guy or more as a catcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's why I felt great about Marino.

[SPEAKER_01]: You had a plus hit tool, you had a above average defense and it's like, man, even if it gets to average power, this guy that could be one of the better young catchers in the game.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he showed that, and I still think he can be that.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just a matter of staying healthy for him.

[SPEAKER_02]: what I was going to point out to is like, it's not that we haven't seen this.

[SPEAKER_02]: He played three seasons in the big weeks.

[SPEAKER_02]: No more than 111 games as at least 2.34 and all three of the seasons.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's played 20 23 through 20 25.

[SPEAKER_02]: This past season, he played 83 games and he was a 2.74 catcher.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's across a full sample of him being healthy at a season.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's a 4 plus 4 catcher for a team.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's a really valuable player.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is a guy who's MLB stats.

[SPEAKER_02]: in his career, he's running a walk right near 10%, he's running a strikeout rate at 17%.

[SPEAKER_02]: The defensive numbers great out well.

[SPEAKER_02]: This past season, he had a 117 WRC plus before going down with the injuries again.

[SPEAKER_02]: So it really has been injury caused, ultimately, like if you've got a catcher who you think is on pace for a four plus more season, every season of his career so far, you feel pretty good about that as an organization.

[SPEAKER_02]: You just got to get this guy healthy and keep him on sphield.

[SPEAKER_01]: Just got to keep him on the field.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think you bring up a great point.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't even realize.

[SPEAKER_01]: How productive it is in 8.3 F-4 and 316 games, I mean, that's putting you at what I mean about a five-war pace, it's a little under four and a half or pace for a season, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, a really good get your, a really good get your, that sounds pretty good to me.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I, I still believe, I just hope we can say how these still 25 years old by the way.

[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, so I don't think this one was by any means in this is what I would say.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, and again, this is the archetype.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's fun.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think it's part of the reason why kind of go about it this way now.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, you're going to get burned on the Davis archetype a lot more than the, the, the, the, the, the marano archetype.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it helped aside.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like if they were both fully healthy, um, [SPEAKER_01]: But also like I think we're already seeing like even banged up Marano is already given you enough value where it's like you can justify the trade and it's funny because a lot of people killed the blue jays for that trade Varsho's kind of been similar but different with just the value that he's given you with the glove also been banged up and it's interesting I mean it's gonna be fun to see who accumulates more war with the respect of team I think Varsho is a little bit of a head start with the way that I'll feel work and also you know really really stack up [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, definitely.

[SPEAKER_02]: The timing for this next one is awesome because we decided to do this series.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think like within two days of the chain boss trade happening and James Maas checks in at number eight on your top one hundred from 2021.

[SPEAKER_02]: You wrote a great piece.

[SPEAKER_02]: Everyone should definitely go check out on just baseball.com about Maas and why the Orioles were willing to seemingly overpay in the public perception for a guy like Maas to put him in that rotation.

[SPEAKER_02]: Still a lot of upside to tap into for a chain [SPEAKER_02]: the time, though, number eight was definitely the highman on chain boss.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think Fangreff's had him at 59.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if you realize that one, I just pulled it up and I was like, whoa, Adam at 59 at the same time in 2021.

[SPEAKER_02]: Pipeline had a mirror in that top 20 range, but definitely not top 10, and certainly not as high as 8.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I believe you were higher than just about everybody on the time, which is interesting because he was one of those electrifying arms coming up through the raise system at that point, or through the I guess not the raise originally.

[SPEAKER_02]: But you know, that is what's so interesting about how these guys go and you had a really high and it hasn't fully translated to the big leagues yet, but we've seen spurts of what Shane buys could be.

[SPEAKER_01]: Baseball is funny, man, because like here at Hero, like the timing as you mentioned, like that piece was really fun to dive into, but it felt like I was diving into a prospect again, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, how can his arsenal be optimized to, you know, make a leap that justifies the costs that the Orioles, you know, forked up there.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I felt like I found a pretty good path to that.

[SPEAKER_01]: And thank you for mentioning that that article is linked in the episode description.

[SPEAKER_01]: I also break down the package that the race gets back and we're going to talk about that after the, after the new year, Jack and I will, we'll be breaking down all the prospects that got moved.

[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, I think there's still a clear area for him to be able to leap and be a monster.

[SPEAKER_01]: The reason why I fell in love with Bos was [SPEAKER_01]: It was the stuff paired with the strike throwing.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, in 2021, Shane Bos walked 4.7% of batters.

[SPEAKER_01]: He struck out 37% of batters.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's been injuries as well after that, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: I just lost so many endings.

[SPEAKER_01]: He had like a loose bodies in his elbow, so that took some time to get that cleaned up, even though that's a clean, not very minimal invasive surgery or arthroscopic, but obviously you've got to take your time.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then right after that, I still undergo Tommy John.

[SPEAKER_01]: But get a 70% strike rate on the fastball, a 25 or sorry, 67% strike rate on the slaughterly through 25% of the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then a change up at like a 62% strike rate that he threw about 10% of the time and then he makes an [SPEAKER_01]: he was just dominating within the zone.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would talk to hitters who faced him and they were all just gushing in terms of how low effort and easy the viola looked as well and he was averaging north in 95 on the fastball and you know, the scatter plot, you looked at like the the armingle.

[SPEAKER_01]: and the carry that he was getting, even back then he was getting a few more inches of carry than the average pitcher would get from his arm angle, and he just looked and said, oh, what more can this guy potentially unlock with such a smooth and easy delivery in so many strikes with that caliber stuff?

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's still the thing that people are saying here.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think the further he gets removed from the from the TJ, the more strikes he's going to throw, and I think the more confident he gets in his arsenal, the more he can kind of dodge that walk rate, but I still think Shane Bosz's a guy that can throw plenty of strikes.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I would love to see it.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I think the Orioles are taking that better.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, for if you're Baltimore, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: Like you're looking at Bos, the guy that can take your rotation at the next level alongside Kyle Bradish, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: Like you have to be, that has to be the plan here.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that they, for them to be able to reach the level they want to reach and clearly they're committed to really making a push in 26, Bos is gonna be a key part of that.

[SPEAKER_02]: They've made that.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, the amount they traded for, I'm like, [SPEAKER_02]: said in terms of just prospect capital, this is a guy you need to take that step for their world to be what they think they can be.

[SPEAKER_02]: And it's also good to note, like he's only thrown one full big week season.

[SPEAKER_02]: Like he before this season, the 425, he had like 110 big beginnings basically.

[SPEAKER_02]: So it wasn't, it's not a guy who has like a long track record of [SPEAKER_02]: struggling necessarily even though he didn't I wouldn't say he struggled a ton this season but he doesn't have like multiple years of being a five-year-old guy he was really good in 2024 limited innings had barely pitched in a big league prior to that right so yeah that's where it's like there's still a lot of time here for a guy who isn't that old doesn't have a ton of innings under his belt and could be one of the pieces that the Orioles need moving forward.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's funny, too, like I'm going to get at the 2021 season.

[SPEAKER_01]: He debuted that year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's great.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's why you have some fatigue like some prospect fatigue.

[SPEAKER_01]: It just player fatigue in general.

[SPEAKER_01]: He made four starts at the Big League level and by the way, that year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And in those four starts, he struck out 32% of Big League battles, walked six and a half.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's, that's just crazy stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I still think that's end there.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's 26 years old and looking forward to full healthy season for him, hopefully.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was a big step forward, even regardless of the numbers.

[SPEAKER_01]: To be able to throw 160 plus endings this past year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that was another thing that the Orioles were excited about.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, definitely.

[SPEAKER_02]: The guy at number seven, you actually, I think we're the low man on, yes.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is the one I remember vividly, because you had two tigers prospects.

[SPEAKER_02]: This guy, yes, exactly.

[SPEAKER_02]: So Torkelson, Spencer Torkelson, current first basement.

[SPEAKER_02]: These are two players that are like a huge part of the daggers lineup hitting next to each other every day.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, which is cool to look back at and see, Spencer Torkelson checks in at number seven.

[SPEAKER_02]: And he was definitely higher than the prospect for you that checked in at number five in most places.

[SPEAKER_02]: And funny enough, you know, I think the guy that you had a little hires is having more success of the big level.

[SPEAKER_02]: Both of them still have their deficiencies for sure.

[SPEAKER_02]: But Torklson being first overall pick, the pedigree that he came in with was four for Fangrass at the time.

[SPEAKER_02]: He was four as well for Pipeline, and he came in at seven for you in your top 100.

[SPEAKER_02]: So what was it about Spencer Torklson that had him, you know, we'll just skip to it.

[SPEAKER_02]: We'll cut ahead a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: Number five was Riley Green for you, who's the other top Tigers prospect.

[SPEAKER_02]: let's just look at them in tandem.

[SPEAKER_02]: What was it that had torquels in behind Riley Green for you?

[SPEAKER_02]: When he was ahead of Riley Green around the industry?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's funny.

[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of struggled to find something that Torque did better or I thought wouldn't would eventually do better than Riley Green.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like that was the interesting part to me is Torque would have to be and at the time I thought Riley Green had a little bit more [SPEAKER_01]: Potential defensively and athleticly and he's just he's filled out a lot and he's more of a you know a corner masher as well ironically, but I felt like the fallback was like, okay, Riley green I think is Just as good bats a ball wise as a younger you know prep guy has clearly just as much ability to impact the baseball and in 2021 it a 51% hard hit rate Riley green did [SPEAKER_01]: and an EV-90-100-6-nose-brower, like Torque was this incredible, incredible power threat in college, but Raleigh Green was doing it in Pro Ball.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, and I thought that was an important wrinkle as well, as like we had seen some proof of concept from Raleigh Green at a younger age in Pro Ball, and I think that was something that really endeared me to him, and then at the time I'm like, okay, well Torque, they listed him as a third baseman when they drafted him, but it was like very [SPEAKER_01]: happen, I think, defensively.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you have Riley Green who, at the time, I don't think the ship had fully sailed on on potentially being able to stick and send her, but I felt pretty good about him being able to be a pretty good defender in any corner.

[SPEAKER_01]: And again, I think maybe I was a little bit overzealous there, but I didn't expect his.

[SPEAKER_01]: his body to go in the direction that it did not that it's terrible, but also he was fine defensively.

[SPEAKER_01]: I sure was like, what, what, one out above average?

[SPEAKER_01]: That's going to be a lot more valuable than just hanging out at first base.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I just, I felt like there was a lot more going for Riley Greene to be this more well-rounded potentially player.

[SPEAKER_01]: And as exciting as, you know, the torque production was at Arizona State and, you know, it's just the college production in general, [SPEAKER_01]: You know, and whether it was short season ball on 2019, whether it was, you know, 2021, just just having the year that he had, I think it was a big separator that year where you're just getting just as much power, just as much hit and not limited to first base, but I felt like I guess the industry in general really held on to that pedigree, which again, I can understand, but [SPEAKER_01]: You know, what would Riley Green that was one of the first like what would he be doing if you was at Arizona State.

[SPEAKER_01]: When I thought about that, I was like probably something similar or even better than what we saw from Tork.

[SPEAKER_01]: And now I'm even looking at it now that the EV 90s were almost identical.

[SPEAKER_01]: The contact rates were almost identical, but the average eggs of velocity was higher for green.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then again, you have a little bit more utility there.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a guy that was running a bit better at that time.

[SPEAKER_01]: could play a potentially above average corner.

[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, again, it hasn't totally gone that way, but I think the bat side especially is, it's backed that up and then was a year younger.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think it's really understandable why you did that and it brings me to like the deeper question of like how do you even value pedigree And I know that's not something you can answer in a 40 minute body as because it's so tricky There's always this difference especially when the new draft class comes in and I know we talked about this at your top 100 update midseason this year when you put the draft guys in like how do you even value the pedigree of a top pick who did something in college verse [SPEAKER_02]: prep guys who don't have that pedigree, but you see what they can be in three years and you look at that projection and you say, this player might be better honestly.

[SPEAKER_02]: They just don't have the notoriety and the pedigree.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think it's very cool that you were able to make that, you know, that stamp with with Green over Turtles in here, because you did have to kind of put that track record and pedigree aside to be able to make the assessment.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's hard because it's, it's like apples to orange, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like the, the pedigree is because we're seeing a guy, maybe do it in a context that another guy hasn't had the opportunity to, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because the college mashing and, you know, he was unprecedented in a lot of the production standpoint.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, time out.

[SPEAKER_01]: Very bonds company in Arizona state, you know, and with the production as a freshman.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think breaking his, his home run record if I'm not mistaken, but at the same time, it's a [SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to discount him.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not maybe not even a discount.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to reward torque for going to college, producing and college, and then making this leap where he could get to the Big League's quicker, whereas I think the 2021 season was a really good opportunity to compare these guys on similar playing fields.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you had a guy that was a year younger.

[SPEAKER_01]: that was making a bit of a leap, levels wise as well, producing the way that he did.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I thought that was like, okay, we finally have a way, even if they're not entirely playing at the same levels, we have an opportunity to somewhat compare them similarly on a more equal playing field.

[SPEAKER_01]: And [SPEAKER_01]: you know again if Riley Green goes to college now he has the pedigree and he's drafted and you know are people going to have a higher confidence interval with a maybe but like let's just take the numbers that we had in 2021 with yes it was somewhat of an elevated strikeout rate but the peripherals were still pretty good the contact rates were solid he hit lefties really well which if that was interesting in the opus over a thousand Riley Green did [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that year against left handed pitching and it just to me it was enough to offset the track record that we had of Torcos and when you have Riley Green already doing this and pro ball a year younger without the college background and I think ultimately that that ended up paying off but that's it's a question that I think you can kind of move the goal post on its case by case and it's still something I'm always trying to figure out to a degree.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think it's something you're going to constantly have to keep considering.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that's just the world of evaluating prospects is that balance between the two.

[SPEAKER_02]: So that brings us to another guy that was, you know, somebody who was viewed very highly by the industry at number six, and that's creation on Regas.

[SPEAKER_02]: And this was, I don't think you were higher or lower than than anybody on this one.

[SPEAKER_02]: This was pretty consensus somewhere in the five to 10 range.

[SPEAKER_02]: He wasn't in that elite four.

[SPEAKER_02]: and he also released three and he definitely was in the top 10 pretty much everywhere, at least around that range.

[SPEAKER_02]: Grayson like, is it just injuries or is there anything that you can kind of pinpoint now looking back where you were like, I should have noticed this or this a little differently, because I feel like it's just been mostly health for Grayson.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just been health.

[SPEAKER_01]: I went back and looked at the 2021 season.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think a lot other years Grayson Rodriguez might be [SPEAKER_01]: You know, the number one prospect in baseball, or at least, you know, very close to it.

[SPEAKER_01]: The guy, too, I mean, here's the 2021 data.

[SPEAKER_01]: Fastball average 97 miles per hour had an inzone with rate of 31 percent of just for reference, average that year at the levels he pitched at was about.

[SPEAKER_01]: 17% so nearly double it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Chase rate of 34% 20 strike rate of 19.2% then has changed up was just ridiculous.

[SPEAKER_01]: About 84 miles per hour, Chase rate of 37% 20 strike rate of 23% opponents at 136 against it.

[SPEAKER_01]: They need a sweeper, I don't even know if they're a corner sweeper, but now retroactively it's tagged as a sweeper, that opponents at 145 against and then he mixed in a curveball that about 10% of the time he threw is a tastebreaker, but opponents were two for 29 against, and that's a O69 batting average.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was just stupid.

[SPEAKER_01]: You was stupid stuff and he was filling up the zone and he was young and it was just so easy to buy into everything you were seeing there it was getting more run and ride than the average picture from his arm angle.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was getting more depth on the curve ball than the average picture from his arm angle he was getting way more depth on the change up than the average picture from his arm angle.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then again, the track record there was was undeniable.

[SPEAKER_01]: It really just fully has been injury because like the stuff is just crazy to look at.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: He struck out 40% of batters that year and walked 6.8%.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's it.

[SPEAKER_01]: What is that?

[SPEAKER_01]: 20 or 33% K minus BB rate?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but insanity.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's filth.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's filth.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I, I, you look at the, even just purely like number watching regardless of even everything you just mentioned, which was super good context, like you can't look at these numbers and not think this guy is an easy top 10 prospect.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I think anybody that that evaluated a prospect at the time looked at it, it was like, disguise with top 10 prospect and baseball understandably.

[SPEAKER_02]: it just hasn't quite come together yet and hasn't come together.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think personal due to injuries, but even, you know, at the Big League level, right, 238 in Big League innings with a 4-1-R-A, a Fitbit 3-8, the strikeout rates, you know, a lot lower than you may have thought through on 25, but still, he still can be a good pitcher, nothing with grace.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think, [SPEAKER_02]: after that trade over to, you know, to the angels this off season, I think a lot of people forget that he just turned 26, like this guy, it almost feels like in the, in the fatigue world, he's like 29 already and like pushing at 30, he's 26, there's still plenty of time in my eyes for great memories, he gets to turn it around and, you know, as much as the, the orals are pushing their chips and they're saying we need surefire things and Taylor Ward can be that surefire power bat and they're line up alongside Peter Lanzo.

[SPEAKER_02]: At the same time, for the angels, I honestly love taking the shot at Grayson, and I think that if you can turn Grayson into even half of what he could have been from the time you made this list, it's a great trait.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right, and that's why I love it.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then people, you know, people say, oh, his arm must not be attached to his body.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got.

[SPEAKER_01]: 40 years for a to attach to reattach it and he hasn't even had like a massively invasive surgery yet.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like, I, you know, we've Gavin Stone out there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Unfortunately, tore all three the capsule rotator laborum.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think the latter to were partial and the first was full, but like.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those are the guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm more like, I don't know if we'll ever come back to that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, it may be a start and stop again this year with Gerard where they finally just bite the bullet and get a surgery, because I know like, well, the lack keeps coming up for hammer, whatever.

[SPEAKER_01]: Not a doctor, but like, if that happens, that would be his first, you know, situation there where I think you say, okay, what's going to the knife, let's see what happens.

[SPEAKER_01]: four years or three and a half or whatever happens to do that or may not happen.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you may be okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I love the trade for them.

[SPEAKER_01]: I still believe in them.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it is fully about health, obviously the abilities there.

[SPEAKER_01]: That fastball change up combination is as crazy as they come.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's funny.

[SPEAKER_01]: I went to the right up on Riley Green by the way.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because the other thing that I forgot was Green finished the year in triple.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hey.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's so like 20.

[SPEAKER_01]: That was the good thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we actually had a pretty close finally, because these guys were so apples to oranges, and you had the production.

[SPEAKER_01]: You finally had an apples to apples here, or green was, even if it was slightly as productive, it's like, he was 20 years old.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I just want to read this excerpt before we go to the next guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: His ceiling is a pure hitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: Rival is his teammate Spencer Torcoson.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'll be it without quite as prolific of power.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ironically now, it is more prolific.

[SPEAKER_01]: Greens still aren't plus raw power projection from us and taps into his present pop well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks to his strong overall field of hit, already physical at only 20 years old, there's still room to add muscle and get stronger, he clearly did that.

[SPEAKER_01]: His bat speed and balance of the plate are immense and his bats of all skills should enable him to hit for enough average to get into that plus power.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's been more with than I think we expected, but then there's also been more power.

[SPEAKER_01]: So again, it's funny sometimes how those things go, but again, I think getting to triple a 20 years old was a big part of that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I am rooting for Grayson Rodriguez to just pivot again, and I'm kind of going all over the place here.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm rooting for Grayson Rodriguez as much as like I can remember rooting for you know a guy in a little while because.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think the trade also added a wrinkle to it that I just, I really want to see how it all comes together.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I just, I just think he deserves to have a year where we can kind of see what he's capable of and it happens too much with pitching prospects, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like Daniel Spino, I'm glad he's finally back in hell with people.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like there's several other guys we could talk about where it's just like, [SPEAKER_01]: Oh my gosh, what could it been?

[SPEAKER_01]: I would have loved to have seen, you know, what it could have looked like if that guy was healthy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I had a 70 on the fastball, a 60 on the slider, a 55 on the curb on a 60 on the change up, and it probably was wrong.

[SPEAKER_01]: Should have had a higher grade on the change up at the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, just shows you what we thought a G-rod.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, definitely it's it's impressive to see, you know, just just where you were able to put together some of these pieces from, you know, so early on in your value rating putting the other top one under the first time, I mean you didn't get everything right, but it is cool that there's a lot of things on this list that are that are pretty reasonable and ended up being right, especially within the top 10.

[SPEAKER_02]: One thing you didn't necessarily get right and it could be right still could change at number four, you were the highman on Francisco Alvarez, who is the second of three catchers we're going to talk about here and it's funny because I just pulled up the numbers and he's played almost the exact amount of career games out through three seasons as Gabriel Morano that's great it's really weird.

[SPEAKER_02]: And he's actually been two wins less valuable and by far worse defensively the marina, which maybe that part could have been factored.

[SPEAKER_02]: But it is crazy that he's actually had a lower WRC plus, I believe, and lower F were in his career, and just about the same 300 game sample as Gabriel Marino has so far.

[SPEAKER_02]: And Marino obviously checked in at nine, Alvarez at four.

[SPEAKER_02]: What was it for you that put Alvarez even above those Riley Green's, Spencer Torkelson, even Marino type of guys?

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was, it was the same kind of conversation where it was like, okay, if it all works out, and I still, I mean, this is still true with Alvarez.

[SPEAKER_01]: If it all works out, he's sealing his best catcher in the game, and I think now that's hard because you got like cow and whatever, but I think the point seems like, is sealing is one of the three best catchers in the game.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because at the time, I saw above average defensive potential.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think we had a 45%-55 future on the glove.

[SPEAKER_01]: We saw I think average at least hit tool to go with what looked like could be double plus power and I'm like, well, even if the hit tool stalls out like he's going to run into his homers and with the above average defense that's going to be a solid player if the [SPEAKER_01]: the power, if the power doesn't totally translate the way that you hope, there's still a chance that the hit tool can be above average.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then again, you have the above average defense.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then even if the defense kind of stalls out at average, you have this hit and power combination that could make him very valuable.

[SPEAKER_01]: I just feel like there was so many different paths here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Depending on what component of his game could stall out, that could still make him a productive player.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, doing it in some tough environments too.

[SPEAKER_01]: I get 24 homers and 99 games in 2021 and again I think there's a lot of questions about the glove and I understood it just because he was a little bit raw at the time, but I think you could see like the catch and throw was there the receiving was there and [SPEAKER_01]: I'm looking at the right up right now all indications point towards Alvarez becoming in a above average defender.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's been the big part of his game that I think is really helped elevate him is that he has progressed into a really solid defender.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think like that was the eye popping thing in 2023.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're like, and that's the biggest body of work we saw from him.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was not that great offensively.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was fantastic defensively.

[SPEAKER_01]: and you got a three-war season from them.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that was at what 21 years old.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that this is just another example of why I think the evaluation evolution here is, as Ghana's like, if you can catch man like, and you have tools that could give you offensive upside, I'm going to take a chance on that every day of the week.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you see why, even in the year where he turned in a 96 WRC plus, [SPEAKER_01]: Let's just go over, let's give you three F-1, 123 games, 2023.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's 2024.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a two-win guy as he really struggled and, yeah, was literally questioning his own hitting identity because of, you know, I think some of the info or feedback he was getting from Eric Chavez.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then this past year, [SPEAKER_01]: We saw the bat really come along.

[SPEAKER_01]: The defense was not as good because he was hurt.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think we saw that the bat come along.

[SPEAKER_01]: So then that carried him a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we've seen kind of the different outcomes.

[SPEAKER_01]: And just waiting for it to all come together.

[SPEAKER_01]: But that's how you still get a guy that in 304 games is still been almost a seven F or catcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, it still feels like he's got a lot more in the tank.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's what I was gonna get to with Alvarez because you've seen these different versions of him.

[SPEAKER_02]: Because in 23 as a rookie, like you said, 21 years old, we saw a six DRS, you know, six positive defensive run saved catcher with 25 homers.

[SPEAKER_02]: So you saw like, here's the crazy power, here's a solid defensive catcher.

[SPEAKER_02]: Then you go kind of as you progress, the defense has actually graded out worse as time has gone on, probably partially with the injuries, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: This past season finishes with negative five DRS.

[SPEAKER_02]: but then you've also seen him become a way more well-rounded hitter going from his rookie season at a 96 WRC plus like you mentioned to 124 this past season.

[SPEAKER_02]: So you've seen all these different versions of Alvarez and it is crazy he just turned 24 dude.

[SPEAKER_02]: He was 23 this season and you saw all these different things that have happened.

[SPEAKER_02]: So that's why I think even with your ranking being a little aggressive on him at the time as a 19-year-old [SPEAKER_02]: You still see all these pieces there and I'm very curious to see how it goes.

[SPEAKER_02]: The season if you can be at full health and and be in a little bit, you know, deeper of a lineup may be depending on how the meds go up the rest of the off season and like we'll see how it all plays out.

[SPEAKER_02]: But I do think that there's like, if you can find the good parts of each of his three big league seasons and combine them into his 24 year old self this year, you could see a really strong season of malvarez and I do think that the meds are banking on him [SPEAKER_02]: a factor, but not just like a, you know, here's our catcher who can get a little bit like a guy who can really be part of that lineup in a big way this season.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, to your point, if he puts up a 786 OPS, I don't understand it was only in about 277 plate of prints, but if he puts up a 786 OPS and defends the way he defended in 2023, he's like a four plus four catcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm taking over three wins.

[SPEAKER_01]: That also, if he slugs the way he slugs in 2023, you know, I think there'd be a lot to like there too.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think if he puts it all together, he could actually have a top five catcher season next year pretty easily.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I do think a big reason why the defense got, [SPEAKER_01]: destroyed last year from the metrics is he had to get surgery on the UCL and his thumb and his glove hand and I really think that that hurt his receiving.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's never been a great blocker.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he replaced a lot of that value through the receiving and the catch and throw and I think both of those things were affected by that UCL issue and his glove thumb.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm excited to see what it looks like if he's fully healthy now and I know he was playing through that and [SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of a lame breakout pick, but I do think he's going to break out next year.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that's like a great breakout pick.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if it was a too low hanging fruit.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, but I think a lot of people have lost some faith in his overall ability to be a star catcher.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think I'll see the spurts of it.

[SPEAKER_02]: But I think that I don't think there's a lot of people that are like banking on or would bet on 130 plus games of, you know, a four-wing catcher at three or three and a half, one catcher.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't, I think a lot of people would be scared to say that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm right in the narrative that you kind of light out there, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: We're like each year, he did one different thing better.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, she's like, did we get those all together here this coming season?

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the answer is yes.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's possible.

[SPEAKER_02]: I want to finish with the final three and I'm just going to, we're going to do all three of them together because these three, obviously, are super stars.

[SPEAKER_02]: You have the right three.

[SPEAKER_02]: I know people can say what they want about one of the guys who had a really rough 2025, but like this was the right three here with other places.

[SPEAKER_02]: Pipeline have the same three.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think Fang Grafs had the third person on your list a bit lower than third, but generally speaking, like these three were all top five consensus, they were top three for you, and they're all super star and they'll be players at this point.

[SPEAKER_02]: Number three, you had Julio Rodriguez, number two, you had Adley Rushman, and number one, you had Bobby Witt Jr.

[SPEAKER_02]: Let's talk just starting with the, the, the, the, the back to there two and three.

[SPEAKER_02]: Julio versus Adley, what was it early on that was the calling card for each of those guys that got you to put them in this top three in this true true super star prospects status?

[SPEAKER_01]: I think the, the clear like the clear mess is that Nobody expected, I, I'll just speak for myself.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure somebody out there did.

[SPEAKER_01]: Some of the people that are really good at this, I didn't expect [SPEAKER_01]: Adelaide or excuse me, who we all run regas to be in elite center fielder for who you I thought I thought he was getting under sold in the corner and we have 55 future value on the glove, but I thought of him as average in center above average in a corner and the value is going to come from his rare blend of hitting power like that's what made him so incredible.

[SPEAKER_01]: This guy is progress defensively and progress speed wise.

[SPEAKER_01]: He got faster.

[SPEAKER_01]: How often do you guys grow, get stronger, and then get faster.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like breaches, he's in anomaly in some ways, but also may have just been under scouted in terms of the ability to defend.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that was the separator because you'll to Adelaide and he said, I think even when you look at the scouting grades, I think there was more offensive upside based on the grades we put on Julio than Adelaide.

[SPEAKER_01]: between 70 future value for Adway defensively, and we saw that in the first several years for Adway, whatever has happened, it feels like a monster situation, the last couple years.

[SPEAKER_01]: I know he's been hurt and it's been other things, but he's also been available and just not as good, so you don't know if he was playing through whatever.

[SPEAKER_01]: Addis Peak is defense was fantastic, and the offense was really solid.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think that was what really pushed him up.

[SPEAKER_01]: At least the best defender of all those guys, and then had the pedigree, the background, switch hitting catcher, you're going to get potentially plus hit and plus power from a switch hitting plus to plus, plus defender behind the dish.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like that's, it was almost it was really hard for me to not have a number one.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I was going to ask you as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like what was [SPEAKER_01]: Did you have a cross the board of like what did most people have at number one?

[SPEAKER_02]: So, one is interesting because it was a true mix of Bobby and Adley.

[SPEAKER_02]: There was no Julios for sure.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thank God that I flipped like you.

[SPEAKER_02]: They had Adley at one, Bobby at two.

[SPEAKER_02]: But when had Bobby at one, Adley at two.

[SPEAKER_02]: It seems like pretty much everything I saw was either Bobby or Adley one and two.

[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, you picked right, um, definitely.

[SPEAKER_02]: You definitely picked right.

[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I think that, you know, Bobby Witt, like, I would just look at the numbers from, like, from the minor leagues in the now that they leagues, like, it's like, it's crazy to say he's almost become underrated, like, this guy is 27 war in his first four seasons.

[SPEAKER_02]: four big reasons and he is almost 27F or two seasons that are out with eat plus war I mean it's crazy what Bobby would have done especially when you look at the first season where you at him at one his rookie season in 2022 felt disappointing to most people yeah because there was so much expectation on him he had a 20 30 season with you know an average WRC plus is a rookie and it was like oh this guy's [SPEAKER_02]: not as good as we thought he was.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he might not be as good as we thought he was comes in next season put up a six warrior with 30 homers and 49 bags.

[SPEAKER_02]: The next season obviously last year of 30 30 season 10 plus war this past season.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's crazy what Bobby's done and you tell them people had him at one for sure.

[SPEAKER_02]: He was definitely a mixture of ably and Bobby.

[SPEAKER_02]: But like where where did your mind go to put him at one?

[SPEAKER_02]: Have the confidence to put him at one?

[SPEAKER_02]: And then obviously we see now it was the correct answer.

[SPEAKER_01]: it was just there was no deficient not only was there no deficient in this game it was plus across the board so same conversation here I can have about a catcher you can talking a little bit about what short stop it's like if this guy's a plus defender that's why I was so confused in his big wig debut he didn't grade out well metricly and I'm like what did I miss here like this is one of the most confident plus grades I put on on a glove at short [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I could think of in the entire list, and you know, I hadn't been doing it obviously very long, but I'm like, this felt really good about this plus glove, it's short.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I was like, I'll give them some time here and then turn off by the next year.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was fully defensively.

[SPEAKER_01]: But we had 60 future hit, 70 raw power, 65 game power, 60 run, he's really 70 runner.

[SPEAKER_01]: And 60 field, he's probably a 70 field guy now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, it really was like, the fact that he was a true five tool player at short stop.

[SPEAKER_01]: that was just flying through the minor leagues.

[SPEAKER_01]: That was the big part for me and I just think, what could it ultimately look like?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, five tools gets thrown out a bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, it doesn't really exist.

[SPEAKER_01]: This was a true five tool guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: It just got better and better and better.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's 33 homers.

[SPEAKER_01]: You really get 34.

[SPEAKER_01]: You had one taken away from him, I remember.

[SPEAKER_01]: They said he didn't touch home.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is he jogging for that?

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, like, [SPEAKER_01]: 2021 doing that flying through all the levels is just stupid.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the spray angles was like a 32% ground ball rate, 23% cave rate while doing all of that.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was ridiculous to watch and he figured like, how much more is potentially in there and, you know, or still finding that out.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's 25 years old.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be really fun to see how much war he can accumulate as soon as he can stay healthy.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's not going to be a lot of comparisons to him.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to be pretty crazy.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I know we talked last episode about how you feel like you were too generous with future value grades on a lot of these players, which is fair in a lot of cases.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I know you've definitely curtailed the way you rank future value.

[SPEAKER_02]: You look at your most recent list compared to this list.

[SPEAKER_02]: And there's way less guys, 60's way less guys.

[SPEAKER_02]: The 65, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's not something you usually give out.

[SPEAKER_02]: With that said, you had Bobby wet as a future 70 plus I don't know if I've seen you give that sense honestly.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think I have any it might have been underselling.

[SPEAKER_02]: You put 70 yeah, you put them at 70 plus future value, which is not and I don't think you've given a single one of those out since.

[SPEAKER_02]: And it was still to this day incredibly accurate because he is one of the five best players in Major League Baseball, I think.

[SPEAKER_02]: And obviously, you know, it's crazy.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's crazy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was definitely just overzealous with all the future values.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like I was thinking of kind of like 75% out of come.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not just kind of averaging out what their value could be.

[SPEAKER_01]: And even with an overzealous ranking of the number one prospect in baseball, he is still exceeding that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that shows you [SPEAKER_01]: how ridiculously good, Bobby, what is and is continuing to be.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it also shows you why Adelaide's worth the patience and then people are like, you know, let's move off of this guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we got the Sil, whatever.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, [SPEAKER_01]: If Adley is 70% of what we saw from him in those higher end, you know, years, still has a chance to be a really, really good player.

[SPEAKER_01]: And all the underlying numbers are not bad.

[SPEAKER_01]: He had between the miners and the magers last year, because I know he's just, just through the magers, 90 games, we're going to 91% in zone contact, great, the swing decisions, great out as, as plus, and you know, you get an EV 90 of 104.5, like, [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I don't know why Adelaide's not better.

[SPEAKER_01]: There hasn't been a player that breaks my brain more in recent years than Adelaide, but I still think that he could be a bounce back guy that I think really helps elevate this Orioles team.

[SPEAKER_01]: But just looking back at the 2021 season, so a lot of the same peripherals in the minor leagues, similar in zone contacts, similar AVs, similar angles.

[SPEAKER_01]: If any of the swing decisions have gotten better, I'm not, I'm not quite Natalie either.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think a full off season here, hopefully fully healthy, he gets right and hopefully can improve that he's in the same conversation with those other two guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: But right now, with the defensive ability that Julio has, like, the war accumulation for him is just stupid.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he still has more to unlock offensively too.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if he finally gets there, he could be on that Bobby Wit track too.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, there's no wrong answer to this list and I think that yeah, you could say, you know, cool, you should have been too habit should have been three, but like this is still a guy and now the rushman and I'm going backwards a little bit from your point there.

[SPEAKER_02]: 11 war in his first two seasons in the big leagues in 170 or 270 games.

[SPEAKER_02]: It was a 11 war to start his career.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's not a guy who like is just some, you know, decent top 10 prospects.

[SPEAKER_02]: Like there's a reason he was the second overall prospect and there's a reason he was one for a lot of people at this time.

[SPEAKER_02]: Even over Bobby Witt, who we now see is the best shortstop in baseball, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: Like he was an unbelievable player to start his career in the best [SPEAKER_02]: The weird thing with Adley is like, it just, like you said, it doesn't really make sense.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's very confusing.

[SPEAKER_02]: And with Julio on the flip side, it's, you know, when you compare them, it's like, okay, Julio keeps putting up four or five or four seasons.

[SPEAKER_02]: Meanwhile, Adley's are dressed every year now.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's where you look in your like dang, like, I guess Julio was, is the better player, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: But it doesn't mean Adley's not an incredible player and was very, very deserving of that second spot on this list.

[SPEAKER_01]: I want to find the person like if there's somebody out there that had a like a 60 or 70 on Julio's glove and center because like that's been a big 30 36 out to above average is a pro.

[SPEAKER_01]: Stupid.

[SPEAKER_01]: No one was crazy.

[SPEAKER_01]: No one would have imagined that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, and in the craziest part is not saying, I'll say, even 30, 30 last year, the second time in Williams career has gone 30, 30.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's gone 2020 every single season.

[SPEAKER_01]: And now, four years, he's 112 homeless, 116 stolen bases, 129 WRC plus and that stadium that's so tough to hit and forgot.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he still has mechanical inefficiencies and bad at ball inefficiencies and swing decision inefficiencies, [SPEAKER_01]: to make him like he's going to win an MVP if he figures this out.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's a crazy part of his really, really freaking good and consistent, but he has that bobby upside item too.

[SPEAKER_01]: So all these guys, that might be the best three-headed monster that we've had, you know, obviously since we've been doing this, but I, it might be a while before we find the three-headed monster like that again.

[SPEAKER_02]: I can't help myself, and I'm putting you on the spot a little bit, but keeping Adelaide side for now, looking at Bobby and Julio, four years into their career, Bobby's at almost 27F or Julio's at almost 21.

[SPEAKER_02]: Where do these guys finish?

[SPEAKER_02]: Just rough, rough, guess.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, okay, so what, that puts them at about.

[SPEAKER_01]: five and a half or pace.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, who he was been about five and a half a season, Bobby's been about six and I think he was going to pop more.

[SPEAKER_02]: Like I think he's going to pop some sevens and eights.

[SPEAKER_02]: Right, but Bobby's already at 10 and eight, the last two seasons.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm like, I don't even know where that goes.

[SPEAKER_02]: What are like, what are the all-time war leaders?

[SPEAKER_01]: They're in the hundreds, but [SPEAKER_01]: I do, I think Bobby's gonna eclipse 100 with ease.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, with ease.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think Julio is as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm taking Bobby's war total just to be hard, cause again, you mean you're talking about eight to a half in the last two years.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think Bobby's gonna average seven to nine war almost every single year.

[SPEAKER_01]: For the next six at least, and then he'll maybe it tapers off a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm, I'm gonna go like, is it crazy to say like 120 for no for Bobby, I mean he would, he would then be the, he would be in the top 20 all time and more if he got to 120, which I don't think is crazy at all.

[SPEAKER_02]: This guy's he's 24 years old.

[SPEAKER_02]: He signed the huge extension.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's in a place he's comfortable with like, I don't, I think it's over 100 for sure.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he was out, Rodriguez did.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if Alex Rodriguez doesn't get suspended for a whole year, he probably gets right to 120.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm looking at [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think that's the that's the compliment like that's and then who you I think a little bit lower just because I don't know if he has as many of the pops.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he settles into the 80 [SPEAKER_01]: 89D range, which is still a whole of our team is, yeah, exactly.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you have conversations about guys in the past too, like, you know, trout, we probably would have said, what if a clip's 100?

[SPEAKER_01]: I guess he theoretically still can.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you know, now he's bad right and gets to 100.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is all bearing health, of course.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, yeah, but I don't see how not.

[SPEAKER_02]: Like, I really don't.

[SPEAKER_02]: yeah pretty pretty insane so this was fun men we're gonna have to do more of these at some point of your your future list but this was your very first list and after going through it like it could have been worse for sure before pretty pretty good for your first time making one of these and I think the people that have been listening to this show for a while know how much you continue to work on your craft with about the wedding prospects and it keeps getting better men so if you were at this point in 2021 and think about [SPEAKER_01]: I appreciate that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm looking at Greg Jones Austin Shenton and Joey Weamer at 93.

[SPEAKER_01]: 94.

[SPEAKER_01]: 95 right now though.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I use that as some some motivation, but it happens I'm excited to say every year we go forward.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we'll have another unique list to look back at it 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 [SPEAKER_01]: It's so on and so forth.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm pumped about that and it's always fun to look back and to see how the processes is evolved a little bit and always trying to learn from the good and bad of these lists and that's fun to do it out loud with you.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I hope everybody enjoyed this as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to do some more redraft stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's obviously, but again, we're going to catch up on [SPEAKER_01]: all of the signings or excuse me, all of the prospect trades at the end of this week.

[SPEAKER_01]: So very much looking forward to that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe try to get some prospect interviews back on the bucket and some other fun stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: Tigers top prospects as well in the works that should be done by the end of the week.

[SPEAKER_01]: Philly won't be too far behind that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of fun stuff and then just stay tuned which is baseball.com.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're turning those lists down obviously, but a lot of other stuff is well and that Shane Bosp's is linked in the episode description.

[SPEAKER_01]: As always, thank you for listening.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hope you have a safe New Year's Eve and a fun New Year's Eve Uber.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not that difficult and honestly be safe on the roads.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's scary out there and we'll talk to you at the end of the week.