Hello and welcome to episode one twenty one of the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast.

Today is January fourth.

This is the first episode of twenty twenty six.

Feels weird to say that, but happy new Year, everybody.

I'm Kyle Santeg.

I'm joined as always by Taylor Corso.

How are you doing today?

Man?

How are your holidays?

Holidays were great?

Happy New Year to you, Kyle.

Yeah, just settling back in, trying to clean up the last remnants of the Christmas here before I got to go back to work tomorrow.

But fantastic holidays, great New Year's.

We talked a little bit about it before recording, like I spend too much time on it, but a little disappointed today after the forty nine ers lost last night.

But let's not talk about football.

Let's talk about some baseball, No, So.

Let's keep the thoughts happy and let's stick with the sport that we I would say, no, a little bit better than football, though, you did just win a fantasy football league, so concretulations to you.

You obviously know what you're doing there as well.

Shifting back to today's episode, though, Taylor, with this being the first episode of the new year, I was wondering if you had any fantasy specific New Year's resolutions that you wanted to share on the podcast today.

Yeah.

I do have a couple, and it comes down to prospect evaluation.

I think one of my big misses from this last year and maybe the last couple of years has just been not giving enough credit to prospects who have a really good hit tool and maybe have average power.

Like I'm still not going to be a fan of the guys that don't have a lot of power, but I think I'm coming more around to the idea that a really good hit tool is going to help that average power play up, where I've been a little bit more skeptical in the past.

So I think guys like Kevin McGonagall are a good example of ones that I've been more lower on because I just didn't believe that they were going to get to really much power even with the really good hit tool.

They've proven me wrong.

So I think that's an area where I want to be a little bit better in my evaluation of these prospects moving forward.

So I think that's my New Year's fancy resolution there.

You know what, there are a couple of names that you put on the show sheet today that we're going to discuss that I kind of wondered about and that maybe answers my question a little bit.

We'll get more into that later on, but I've got really a handful here.

There are some things I was thinking about before the episode here in the last few days, and I kept adding to my list here, and the first few are specific to the way that I play fantasy, And the first one is something I've already been sticking to for the last few months through this offseason, and that's no more taking over orphan teams.

I've enjoyed the orphan teams that I have taken over in the past, but I find it more and more difficult to really get into those teams compared to the teams that I step in for the startup draft and draft my team entirely the way that I want it to look.

I just find it a lot harder to get into a team that I didn't select.

So if I'm joining any new leagues going forward here, I'm trying to make sure that it is a startup league and not taking over for somebody that has left a league.

To that extent a little bit as well, one type of league that I'm looking to join a little bit more of this offseason are draft and holds, and the main reason I want to do that is to help scratch my draft itch without really adding to my in season workloads.

So I'm actually in one right now, really enjoying that.

I'm probably going to join another one or two as the season approaches here, but I'm really enjoying the idea of getting to draft and then checking in periodically without the stress of having to really dig in day in and day out and set my lineups.

Then something that will affect the dynasty teams that I do have.

I'm looking to trade more of my prospects for big league upgrades this year, and that's something that I have always had trouble with.

I grow attached to these guys that, especially the ones that we find these diamonds in the rough where you know, you pull them off off the waiver wire and they blossom into something spectacularly.

A great example this past season would be someone like a Joshua Biez that yes had some hype when he first came up, had been relegated to the waiver wire in a lot of leagues, and now after grabbing a bunch of shares.

I find it really hard to part ways with him.

I'm not sure he's the best example as far as someone that I will be parting ways with, but I will be looking to trade more of my prospects for big league upgrades to make and keep my team's competitive this year and going forward.

And then I've got a couple more just really relating to the job here at Prospects Live.

One of them being to update my personal prospect rankings more often so that when we do our big overhaul every month or two, it's not as much work if I'm chipping away at it on a weekly basis.

And then the other one that I've really been trying to be better at for years and haven't been able to stick with it is just having a stronger social media presence.

And some people have probably noticed I've been tweeting out some polls lately and just trying to get more engagement going there.

And like I said, these last two are really just trying to grow, you know, my presence and my abilities in this space rather than my actual Fantasy league.

So I do have a handful of resolutions this year.

We'll see how many of them I stick to.

I'm hoping to at least get through a few months on all of these, but I know the deeper into the year we get, the harder some of these things can be to stick to, whether that's resolutions fantasy wise or real life.

Fingers crossed for both of us, Taylor, that we can stick to these resolutions and really make good on them.

Yeah, yeah, a hundred percent.

And congrats to you man.

You reached the one thousand follower threshold on Twitter there.

Awesome job, like long overdue, and now that you've hit that threshold, I think your following's is only going to grow.

Awesome to see that, and great content that you're posting on there as well.

Yeah, thank you very much.

Hopefully I can continue to grow that.

But we'll move away from our kind of personal resolutions here because we've got a lot of great baseball discussion coming today.

There's not a ton of news and notes to discuss.

With the past week being the holidays, things were a little bit slow, but the last few days things have picked up.

So we do have a few free agent signings to discuss, and that includes a couple more big names off the international market, and then we're going to get into our main topic of the day, which is a preview of the American League East.

As we begin to preview each division in baseball, we'll work through the AL first and then we'll end with the NL.

But before we get to any of that today, I do want to remind everyone about all of the incredible offerings we have at Prospects Live, including our amazing app suite, which houses the best tools in the business, like our Dynasty Prospect and Open Universe lists, as well as our trade Analyzer and Matchmaker, and p Live Plus and hobby Plus.

In recent articles, the Dynasty team has continued to work on our twenty twenty eight lineup predictions.

These are almost done.

I believe next week will be the final two before we move on to our position series.

This week we had the Cubs covered by Rog Meta and the Blue Jays by Greg Hohocamp as they predicted the twenty twenty eight lineups and went over the twenty twenty six Dynasty outlooks for every team.

Our pro scouting team has continued their coverage of the top twenty prospects in every system, with the Padres, Dodgers, Angels, and the Athletics being dropped recently, and our amateur scouting team was busy as well, as they dropped not only their top one hundred collegiate player rankings, they also celebrated Festivus where they aired their grievances with any discrepancies between their personal list and that updated consensus ranking.

While Jake Bargery also continued his college baseball previews as he covered the American Athletic the Atlantic Ten, and the West Coast Conferences this week, and then on the podcast front, Greg Hoocamp and rog Meta discussed their predictions for the twenty twenty eight lineups of the Cubs and Blue Jays.

As you can tell, there's a lot of incredible work being done up and down Prospects Live and whether you like to read articles, listen to podcasts, however you want to consume your content, and whether you're into fantasy baseball, real life scouting, the amateur side of things, card collecting, you name it.

We have something for every kind of baseball fan and it is all available at Prospects Live for as little as seven dollars per month.

If you enjoy our podcast, please rate and review us.

We really appreciate the support and please give us a follow as well, you can find me at Sunny Underscore one eight on X and Sonny one to eight on Blue Sky.

You can find Taylor at Dynasty Pickups on both.

You can also get a hold of us with all of your Dynasty Baseball questions at Dynasty Baseball Pickups at gmail dot com.

Now, let's get into some of the news and notes from baseball over the last week.

As I said, there hasn't been a ton to talk about that's happened over the last week.

But we will be getting into a few contracts and we'll start with the those big international names, the first of which was Tatsuya Imai, who signed a three year deal with Houston.

Now, there are opt outs after each the first and second year of that deal.

This is a fifty four million dollar deal at the base salary for those three years, but there are incentives that could take it up to sixty three million dollars.

Now, on the surface, this looks like a really great deal for both Houston and am I and I do really like the landing spot, But the more you dig in and you look at these opt outs, I'm not sure I like it as much for Houston, specifically because if Emi comes over and he pitches as well as I'm sure he hopes to, and many of us hope that he will.

I don't see a world in which he isn't opting out after the first year, at which point they're paying him roughly twenty million dollars for one season, as well as the eleven million dollar posting fee that they had to pay to bring him over to the MLB.

Now that basically means it would be a thirty two million dollar deal for one year of Tetsuya m I.

So with that in mind, Taylor, what do you think, not only of this contract, but what do you think of the landing spot for fantasy purposes?

Yeah, I think the landing spot is fine.

My surprise with this contract is just the number.

Like I get it's lower because of the opt outs, but you know, Emaya was expected to go past six figures pretty easily and get to maybe around one hundred and fifty million, which is three times essentially what this contract was.

So to me like that huge of a divide between what the public thought of this player and what the teams thought of this player and the market that was there from ILB teams.

This makes me think like there is something the public is missing here that these teams are just not as sold on Emi, and that makes me a little more hesitant to name him like a slam dunk one in FYPDS.

Now, I already had him as a two behind Kate Anderson based on wanting to see the contract first and the market and landing spot and everything.

The landing spot's fine, I think, because the contract is so much lower than expected.

I think I'm fine with keeping in my as my number two FIPD player because I just I feel a little bit more comfortable in Kate Anderson, even though we haven't seen it with him professionally.

Then imai after he gets really a much lower contract than what he was expected, and not to take a minute to check those incentives, but I believe the incentives are actually based on Inning's pitch, and the numbers are fairly low if I recall correctly.

Yeah, I'm not sure exactly what the incentives are either, I will say to the extent of the terms of the contract, I had heard that there were more years and more dollars offered to him, but he chose this deal for Maybe it's the opt outs.

He's betting on himself a little bit he thinks that he can earn more money f a good year showing and proving himself in the MLB.

I'm really interested to see how that all plays out.

Though.

By the time this time next year should be really interesting to see where Katsuya Emi is at.

Yeah, the incentives are pretty crazy.

It's for eighty ninety and one hundred innings pitched in twenty twenty six.

So that makes me wonder is there something with the medicals we're not hearing about, Like why have such low innings pitched incentives?

Because if he's what people expect, one hundred innings should be no problem, Like why do we need escalated incentives just to get to one hundred innings?

So that really worries me.

Maybe I'm in the minority, but I'm much more concerned about EMI's value today than I was prior to him signing this contract.

Yeah, I wouldn't say I'm concerned.

The one thing I do worry about a little bit is what happens if he does opt out after year one?

Where does he go after that?

Because we do like the landing spot in Houston, but there's no guarantee that we will like the next landing spot as much as we do right now.

Yeah, again, I feel like there's some piece of this that we don't know that we're missing to your point, like, yeah, the team could change, but in my mind, like there's not a lot of landing spots for him at this point where I would say, oh, that significantly changes the value versus Houston, Like, I don't think he's going the Rockies or anything like that.

Maybe there are a couple teams, but those are more like the smaller market teams I think in terms of like where he might end up if he does opt out and he does pitch, well, I think most of those are going to be locations where I don't think it'll affect his value.

Yeah, I don't think it'll be anything too crazy.

But we will move on to the other big international name that signed, and that was Kazuma Okamoto signing a four year, sixty million dollar deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Now, this is another one where people were maybe expecting a little bit more either length or money wise, and maybe that speaks to just the overall market that both in my and Okamoto as well as Murakami a week ago didn't quite get what everybody was expecting, but as a Jays fan, Taylor, I'm really excited about this move.

The one thing that makes me hesitate a little bit from a real life perspective is that he probably is going to play a fair bit of third, where I don't know how well he fits defensively in that regard, he's a better first baseman than he is third baseman.

I don't think Vlad's moving off the position.

They're probably going to have Okamoto at third base more often than not.

There have been rumblings that he could be tried in the outfield, so we'll see exactly what happens there.

But from an offensive standpoint, this is a guy that makes a ton of contact and brings respectable power to the play.

We'll see how it transfers to the MLB, but he was among the league leaders in home runs and ops and slugging percentage and all those important power metrics in the MPB four the past half decade here, so it's going to be interesting to see how the power translates.

But I think more than anything else, the hit tool and the approach are really going to translate, and he's going to fit in really well with this Blue Jays offense in that regard, I do need Taylor a less biased opinion here, though.

What do you think of this landing spot for Okamoto?

I really like the landing spot.

And you know, we talked about how Markami got a lot less money than was expected.

We just talked about em I getting a lot less money than expected.

A Kamoto pretty much got what was expected.

MLB trade rumors anticipated a four year, sixty four million dollar deal.

He got four years sixty million, So that's right in line with expectations, and that is really informative to me in that same way, if the market was there like it was expected to be for a Kamoto, I like the landing spot, and he's going to a good team, will have a good supporting cast around him.

Like you mentioned, it does weaken the defense a bit for the Jays there.

Akamoto's not seen as a very good defensive third basement, so there are some questions as to that positional fit, like you mentioned, based on the contract that he got the landing spot, I actually moved him up my rankings a bit.

Currently.

I have him at number nine in my FYPD rankings, and I think that's about the time where a lot of those college pitchers I like are off the board, and it just seems like investing in what should be an everyday average to above average player in the Blue Jays lineup makes a lot of sense.

I could see even moving him further, but I definitely bumped up his value a bit after this lining.

Yeah, I've bumped him up a little bit as well.

I'm still yet to actually put the international players, either these international professionals or the J fifteen names in to my overall FYPD rankings, but I do think that this gives him a much better chance to land at the back end of my first round for FYPD now where previously I was looking at both Okamodo and Mori Kami as more kind of mid to back end second rounders.

A big part of that is the fact that if you've got an early pick, you are probably leaning towards these true FYPD names coming out of college or high school.

But I do think that there's enough value here that this probably pushes him into the back end of the first round for me, even that nine to twelve ish range.

Yeah, like I said, I have him at nine, but the deeper the league, the higher I'm going to push him up.

So if you're in a league that doesn't have a lot of minor spots or is like a thirty team league, I gues see taking him as high as third overall because again like that guaranteed playing time.

The fact that he's going to be an everyday starter on a good team I think is worthwhile.

So it really depends on le context as it usually does with these international guys, but definitely a name on the rise for me.

Yeah, absolutely, But Taylor, We've got a few domestic players who were signed as well.

We will rattle these off all together.

Here we had Tyler Molly signing a one year deal with your San Francisco Giants, Zach Eflin signing a one year deal heading back to the Baltimore Orioles, and Kirby Yates signing a one year deal with the Los Angeles Angels.

So for me, the big name here to pay attention to for fantasy purposes is Tyler Molly.

San Francisco is a fantastic landing spot for him.

I think it's a good deal for both sides.

I don't think we see the Tyler Molly that we saw to start last year.

I think he was always pitching a little bit over his head with the numbers that he was putting up.

But I do really like this landing spot.

I think it helps him hold a lot of the value that he gained last season.

What do you think about these moves though?

And is Molly the big name that you are targeting from this group or you maybe looking at an Efflyn or a Yates more so for fantasy.

I think Molly's the guy I'm targeting.

I wouldn't say big name I think of.

This group relatively speaking.

Yeah, I think at this level he's fine.

He's better than most of these guys.

Like you mentioned, the landing spot is great.

I think it's a smart ad for like the back end of the Giants rotation.

I just don't think he's that good.

We saw the two eighteen era last year, but his XCRAX, FIP and Sierra we're all over four.

He's had a sub twenty percent k rate the last two seasons.

Now.

He's been good at run prevention again.

That ballpark will help, that defense will help.

I think he's fine as a fourth or fifth starter.

I just wish the Giants would have spent a little bit more money and gotten more impact in that rotation.

It looks like they're maybe done with their rotation and being back ended by like Adrian Houser and Tyler Marley is not exactly what I was hoping for this offseason.

But that aside, I think the rest of these signings are interesting.

Zach Eflin returning to Baltimore, dealt with the number of injuries last year, saw his stock fall, had back surgey in August.

He rebounds this year.

I think there's some value to be had there.

Kirby Yates, he joins the Angels like bullpen of misfits, where it's all these sort of has beens in Drew palmeranz and Jordan Romano and all these guys who maybe have dealt with injuries or performance in the last few years, and there's not really a clear guy there.

I think any one of them can maybe step up and be that guy.

But right now, I think that bullpen is just gonna be an absolute mess for fantasy.

Yeah, I think for saves holds, there are a number of guys that you can look at towards the back end of your roster, but for saves only these leagues.

I'm not touching this Angel's bullpen because there are.

Like you said, there's no clear favorite to go and get those saves.

Yeah, I would agree with that, all.

Right, Taylor.

Like I said, not a lot of news and notes this week, so we will move on to our first division preview of the winter that begins with the American League East.

And this is gonna work similar to last year's division previews.

So I will be going through each team's projected lineups per roster resource on Fangraphs.

I will mention their top five prospects according to our rankings here at Prospects Live, and I'll touch on some notable big league moves that the team has made so far this winter.

Then we are going to give our quick thoughts on the team as a whole before we finish with some dynasty buys.

That'll be one big leaguer and one prospect each, So you're gonna get four dynasty buys for each team in these division previews.

Taylor, let's get into it.

We're starting at the top.

I think last year we might have done these in alphabetical order.

This year, we're gonna do them based on their twenty twenty five standings results.

So we're gonna start at the top.

With my Toronto Blue Jays in twenty twenty five.

They finished first in the Al East, first in the American League overall with a record of ninety four and sixty eight, but they did end up losing in the World Series.

I'm not gonna get more into that, because we can touch on that for hours and hours if we really wanted to.

Instead, I'm gonna move on to their projected lineup per roster resource.

At catcher, they've got Alejandro Kirk at first base, Vladimir Guerrero Junior second base, Ernie Clement third base, the newly signed Kazuma Okamoto shortstop, Andres Jimenez left field, Anthony Santander centerfield, Dalton Varshow right field.

They've got Addison Barger.

On the strong side of a platoon at DH is George Springer, And on the bench they've got Tyler Heineman, Davis Schneider, Nathan Lucas, and Miles Straw.

Real quick, before I move on to the rotation, I wanted to mention earlier.

I think Nathan Lucas is the big loser of the Okamoto signing because it pushed Barger to the outfield more full time and has pushed Lucas to the bench, So that's something to note in maybe some of your deeper leagues.

He's not so much a shallow league name, but Nathan Lucas now looks like he's a big loser of playing time here.

The projected rotation for the Jays has Kevin Gosman as their ace, with Dylan Cese, Shane Bieber, Trey Ya Savage, and Cody Ponce rounding things out.

The projected bullpen for twenty twenty six still has Jeff Hoffman as the closer, with Jimmy Garcia and Tyler Rogers as the setup man.

I will say they've got Louis Varland as just a straight reliever.

I think he's gonna work into a lot of hired leverage as well.

But rounding out that bullpen, we also have Brendan Little, Tommy Nance, Eric Lauer, and Jose Burrios, so lower and Burrios being some of the big losers of these big signings that they've made in that rotation this year.

Projected to start the year on the injured list is Jake Bloss, who is recovering from an elbow injury.

The top five prospects for the Blue Jays per Prospects Live are trey Ya Savage at number one, Jojo Parker two, Arjin Namala three, Johnny King four engaged standard for five now.

They've been a very busy team this offseason, as we've discussed them almost every week.

I think that we've had a podcast this winter.

Some big additions that they've made include Dylan Cees on a seven year contract, Kazuma Okamoto on a four year deal, and Cody Ponce and Tyler Rodgers on three year deals each.

They do have a few key names leaving the roster potentially.

None of these players have actually signed elsewhere yet, so there's no guarantee that they aren't a Blue Jay.

But Boba Schett, Chris Bassett, Ty France, Sir, Anthony Domingas, and Max Scherzer are all currently free agents now.

Taylor, as I said, lots of moves, lots of players moving in and out of this roster this season.

I think we are certainly looking at them in a much more positive light than we were this time last year.

But give me your quick thoughts on the Blue Jays before we get into some dynasty buys.

Yeah, I think this is a better team than what it was last year, at least at the beginning of the year.

I really like the rotation.

I think that the lineup is solid.

It really comes down are they done?

Are they gonna resign Bow?

I know there's still some hope that Bow comes back.

I think if Bo comes back, this is a powerhouse.

I think without him it's a little bit weaker, but I think it's still a very good team, and again better than it was last year and a year where they won a very tough division.

I really like this roster a lot.

Yeah, I'm with you.

I'm not sure that they're done yet.

I don't know how many more big moves they have.

I know at one point there was talks of maybe Alex Bragman, but with Okamoto signing, I think that counts them out at his sweepstakes.

There's still discussion that probably or maybe they're probably in on one of a Bobashett or a Kyle Tucker.

I think Bashett makes more sense at this point because the Okamoto signing, as I said, pushed Barger to the outfield.

So the outfield's now quite full, especially when you basically have to have George Springer as your DH At this point in his career.

I will say this is a division where it's going to be very difficult to repeat as champions.

They are trying, though, to improve their chances as much as possible.

We'll see how the rest of the offseason goes.

There are still some big names floating out there that could continue to make this division just an absolute slugfest.

But as you noted, they are I think a much better team than what we were looking at this time last year and continue to try to improve their chances going forward here.

Yeah, agree, all right with that?

Then, Taylor, let's get into those dynasty buys.

We're going to start in the big leagues where last year you had big winner on this team.

You shouted out Addison Barger, where I went with Will Wagner.

He did not have a great year, ended up in San Diego.

His playing time has been a huge question mark.

But fantastic choice on Addison Barger by you, Taylor.

Obviously we loved that one.

Who do you have for us this year?

Yeah, I mean, I'm gonna talk about a player coming over from overseas that was a free agent signing, this winner, but not the one that we just talked about.

I'm gonna talk about the other one, and that's Cody Ponce, and I have just a feeling that Cody Ponce is gonna be this forgotten man in FYPDS.

He last pitched in the majors in twenty twenty one, but has undergone a lot of improvements since then.

He actually pitched in Japan for a while that ended up in the KBO, but it really wasn't until this last year that he again made those improvements and really put up some insane numbers.

He led the KBO an eer whip and K percentage last year.

And you think about K percentage when you compare what Ponts did last year in terms of strikeouts to some of the other names that we've seen playing the Majors fail go over to the KBO and then come back.

He's really head and shoulders above them, and I think that really shows his upsides.

Cody Ponce had a twelve point six k per nine last season in the KBO.

Eric Fetti's last season the KBO, he had a ten point four k per nine, Chris Flexen had a ten point two k per nine, and Meryl Kelly had a nine point two k p nine.

Again like that kind of shows you Fetti and Flexen are not big kper nine guys in the majors, and the fact that they had over ten kind of helps you baseline it.

But the fact that Ponce had more than two more strikeouts per nine than those guys, and more than three than Meryl Kelly, I think, shows again there's a different level of upside here.

When we're talking about what Cody Ponce did in the KBO versus some of those other pitchers we've seen, it's worth noting he broke the single season strikeout record in the KBO with two hundred and fifty two strikeouts and one hundred and eighty and two thirds innings pitch.

He also set the single game KBO record in strikeouts with eighteen, and he did all this because he managed to improve his stuff.

He actually added two ticks to his velo.

He now sits in the mid nineties and tops out at ninety eight.

He developed a better splitter to pair with his cutter and curveball.

That was a big part of it as well.

And the contract he received from the Blue Jays doesn't look like much.

It's three year, thirty million, but again, when you compare it to some of those other pitchers returning from the KBO.

It's twice as much as Eric Fetti got with his two year, fifteen million dollars contract.

The other contracts for those guys coming over were even smaller.

Meryl Kelly only got five point five million on two years, Chris Flexen got two years four point seven to five million, and then Ryan Weiss, who was signed this offseason, got just one year two point six million.

So again this.

Shows that there is a different level of picture here in Cody Ponce coming back than we've seen in Fetti, Kelly, and Flexen, and all those guys had some degree of success right like they were all worth rostering at one point or another and in some cases still are.

With all that, plus the fact that Toronto made it as decision to boot Jose Brios from the rotation to put Cody Ponce in there when Brios is a more than serviceable back end starter, just makes me think that there is upside here and the fact of the matter is you should be able to get him towards the end of your FYP drafts.

I don't think he's going to be much more than a mid round pick in most leagues, will probably fall to the later rounds in most leagues.

I think the fact that he was an early signing that most people have probably forgotten about the fact that he's over thirty is going to push down that price in dynasty leagues.

And I think this is a pick that if you make it again those mid to late rounds, if your FIPD could pay off in a big way.

He's got the floor of a solid depth starter.

But I think there's more upside here than what he's being given credit for.

And I think if you hit on that upside, it's really going to pay off for the price that you paid.

Yeah, I love this call out.

There are a few of your picks today that I'm going to mention I absolutely love and honestly wish I had thought of sooner, because, as you belluted to, I forgot about Cody Ponts, even though I put the show sheet together and I wrote his name down in that rotation.

I love this pick.

I agree that there's more upside here than for some of the other names that have come over in similar circumstances in recent years.

I think the other thing to keep in mind here, and we talked about it when Dylan C.

Signed with the Jays.

We didn't talk about it as much when Ponce signed, but the Jays have had a tendency to really get the most out of veteran arms coming to their team in recent years.

Again we talk about what they got out of a Chris Bassett, a Kevin Gosman, Robbie Ray when he was there.

They've done really well with these veterans coming over, and I think that Cody Ponce is probably going to be another name on that list who, like you said, you're going to be able to get really good value on in your fypds where he's eligible.

Some leagues might have weird rules as far as whether or not players like a Ponce are eligible for that, so make sure that you know what your league's rules are.

But I know Taylor for at least the vast majority of leagues that we are in, he's going to be eligible for our drafts, and I'm going to be really interested to see what kind of value people get on him.

Yeah, yeah, one percent.

I will be picking up many shares of him in FPD that's for sure.

We'll have to see which one of us likes him more than Because I think this is as we've talked about a number of times this winter.

Another one of those names that we might be fighting over in a few of our leagues.

Shifting to my big league by though, this is a player who will not be available in your player drafts, and that's Anthony Santander, because, simply put, I just think last year was a bad year.

Obviously, injuries played a big role in that he was limited to just fifty five games, but he was pretty dreadful when he was in the lineup as well.

I just don't think he's got the kind of skill set that falls off a cliff like that, So I do think he'll have a bounce back year.

I'll say, though it's important to note even a bounce back year probably won't come with fantastic ratios.

The projections on fangrafts right now largely have him getting back to what he did in twenty twenty four, which was around a two thirty average with a three to ten OBP, so not fantastic ratios.

But those projections also have him for about thirty home runs as well.

Now it's not the forty home runs that he hit in twenty twenty four, but thirty home runs even with okay to below average ratios still gives you plenty of value for fantasy, and at thirty one years old, coming off that disastrous twenty twenty five season, the cost here should be low enough that it's a good gamble to take heading into twenty twenty six.

Yeah.

I like this call out a lot.

I don't think anyone predicted him to have the season he did last year.

I think a big part of it is just we've seen it so many times.

A guy signs a big contract puts a lot of pressure on them.

They struggle initially, but I think with Santander it had the added measure of him having injuries on top of that.

Right, he got off to a slow start, he felt the pressure.

Then he also dealt with shoulder and back injuries and should be healthy coming into this year.

I think him returning to form, maybe if it's ninety percent of what he was before or is a huge boon to the Blue Jays.

And I feel like most people just think he's washed at this point, and I don't believe that at all.

And I think there's really good value if you can trade for him or even draft him and startups and everything like that.

Yeah, absolutely, I'm glad to hear you're on the same page with me there, because he was one of the names that I put on the sheet that I wasn't quite sure if.

I was gonna be on an island on.

But Taylor, let's move on to our prospect buys for the Blue Jays here, And like I said, you saved us with the Addison Barger pick, because these prospect buys for the Jays are not looking good right now.

We picked Orelvis Martinez and Brandon Barrierra last year, neither of which did much of anything this year, certainly nothing to improve their stock.

So who do you have for us this year?

And why is this a better pick than or Elvis Martinez was.

Yeah, not a great pick for me last year, But I feel good about this year's picks, most of them.

They are a couple all shout out that I'm a little more on the fence on.

But this is not one of them.

This one I actually got more excited about after researching him.

And that's Tim Piastin of the Blue Jays.

There.

He was their fifth round pick, eighteen year old third baseman, listed at sixty three to twenty.

And you'll love this.

He is a Canadian from Vancouver, huge raw power and I want to read you what our scouts said in our pre draft scouting report.

They called him a supertooled athlete with a physical projectable frame.

He blends raw strength and bat speed with long term offensive upside, offering both a high floor and a high ceiling at the plate as he continues to refine his game at the plate, the left hand hitter brings real thunder when he connects the ball jumps off the bat with authority, regularly producing triple digit exit velocities.

Over the past year, he's shown in game power in big league environments, most notably launching balls out of the Rogers Center during prep events in Alberta.

The power plays with wood in.

His combination of natural strength and above average batspeed gives him a realistic shot at future sixty or sixty five power grades as he fills out encouragingly.

Pas Ten has shown he can handle premium velocity, especially during appearances on the US Summer circuit.

And then I'm skipping some, but it goes on to end with thirty plus home and potential impact, raw tools and a chance to hit in the middle of a lineup.

Pias ten remains one of the more intriguing offensive protections in the class.

So hearing that, Kyle, you got to be pretty excited, right.

This is a guy who it sounds like has really good power.

He's shown the ability to get that from wood bats, He's shown the ability to hit in big league environments against premium velocity.

There's a lot to like there, and Baseball America doubles down on that.

They said he has a chance to develop seventy grade raw power at maturity.

They ranked his power tool as the best in this draft class for the Blue Jays, above Jojo Parker.

Pretty universally, the agreement on the scouting reports is that he has the arm to stick at third base, but athleticism is a question.

Was unranked in our latest prospect update, and I think that he's going to go undrafted in most fyps.

But I think this is a guy to take a shot on post FYPD waivers or later rounds of a deeper FYPD, or at least watch list in shower leaks to see if he pops, because I think this is a guy who no one's really paying attention to right now, and I think that's a big mistake.

Yeah, I agree with you one hundred percent.

Here he is a little bit further down my FYPD rankings.

I think he is, as you said, somebody that if your FYPD goes sixty picks or fewer, you can probably leave to pick up on the waiver wire afterwards.

But if you are in a deeper league that goes seventy five eighty one hundred picks, this is absolutely going to be one of my later targets.

I'm a big fan of the upside play for Tim Piastenine, and I love this call out by you.

So it's Pyostine.

Okay, that's what I've heard.

I believe it's Pyostine.

All right, I do.

I was gonna butcher that, So thank you for correct Tovey there, You're welcome.

Hopefully at least one of us has it right.

But I'm going to move on to another corner infielder, but a name that I'm pretty sure we can both get right, because that's Sean Keys.

Now.

Keys currently sits at four point fifty overall in my personal list, and I was the only ranker at Prospects Live to have him in my top four fifty.

So I'm starting with a bit of a deeper cut here as well.

And I think people are actually going to come around on Keys in twenty twenty six here, because while he didn't impress much in the batting average department, hitting just two seventeen last year, his three sixty five on base percentage and four h eight slugging percentage were more inspiring marks.

And then you add in nineteen home runs, a twenty two percent strikeout rate, sixteen percent walk rate, nearly eighty percent contact overall, and less than forty percent ground balls, and we're starting to get the picture of a more impressive first full pro season.

He did also steal eight bases, but he's not considered a good runner, so don't expect that to be a big part of his game going forward.

The things you can count on, though the report on Keys, He's always been a player with an excellent ie at the plate, so the on base percentage is something that should continue to thrive.

He's got plus or better raw power, so expect that slugging percentage to even tick up.

Expect those home run totals to tick up, and with fringe average to average contact skills combined with the excellent eye at the plate.

I think that we've got a much more well rounded offensive profile here than the numbers in his first full pro season would really indicate.

In particular, I think that batting average is going to tick up quite a lot in I think Double A next year, because he did spend nearly one hundred and twenty games in Hi A last year.

Like I said, I think he gets that opportunity in Double A, and his babbit last year was just two fifty.

I think we see that tick up.

I think we see his batting average tickup.

I think we see the numbers really tick up across the board here, and I think he's got potential to rise quite a bit.

He's probably not a top one hundred type of prospect, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him end the year inside our top two fifty at Prospects Live.

Yeah, I think this is an interesting call out.

Like you mentioned good power, the batty average doesn't really speak to the contact that he showed.

It was solid contact, sub ten percent swinging strike rate at eight point four was really nice to see low k rate, high walk rate.

The one thing that you know, I was a little surprised that you didn't mention because I know this has been a sticking point for you on.

Prospects in the past, is just how passive he is.

Sub forty percent swing rate, I think is one of those where you want to see him be a little bit more aggressive.

But I think that also shows maybe there's some room to improve there as well.

Yeah, So the reason I didn't mention that is because this is a college draftee, so he was twenty one years old last year playing in high A.

I think part of why he was so passive because in his brief pro debut the swing rate was it was still low, but at forty two percent, it was better than the thirty eight percent he had in twenty twenty five.

I think part of it, as far as the passivity goes, is just the fact that he was facing a little bit lesser competition, which maybe there's two edges of the sword here, where one he wasn't as aggressive as he could have been because he knew that he wasn't going to get as many strikes to hit.

But on the other side of things, he would have probably liked to see him do a little bit more damage than he did with just a two seventeen batting average, So there are different ways to look at that, but I do expect that if and when he gets that push to double a next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see the swing rate at a more palable kind of forty two percent like it was in his twenty two game sample in twenty twenty four when he made his debut.

All right, then, Taylor.

With that, Let's move on to the New York Yankees finished second in the Al East last year.

They actually tied the Blue Jays by record at ninety four and sixty eight, but the Blue Jays held the tiebreaker, so the Yankees fell to second place in the division.

Their twenty twenty six projected lineup per roster resource has Austin Wells at catcher, Ben Rice at first base, Jazz Chisholm Junior at second, Ryan McMahon on the strong side of a platoon at third base, Jose Cabaliro at shortstop, Jason Dominguez in left field, Trent Grisham in center, Aaron Judge in right field, gian Carlo Stanton at DH and their bench is filled out by j c Escara, your beeat Vivas Oswaldo Cabrera and Ahmed Rosario.

Their rotation is led by Max Fried along with Cam Schlittler, Luis Heel, Will Warren and Ryan Yarborough.

Their twenty twenty six bullpen projections have David Bednar as the closer, Camillo Dovall as the setup man as well as Fernando Cruz, and that bullpen is rounded out by Tim Hill, Jake Bird, Brent Hedrick, Paul Blackburn and cad Win Quest.

They have quite a lot of talent projected to start the year on the injured list, so these players will be filling in.

When you hear the names in the rotation and in the lineup, you might think that it's lacking something.

That's because they've got Anthony Volpi who will be dealing with a shoulder injury to start the year.

They've got Garrett Cole coming back from TJ, Carlos Rodin coming back from Annel Joe elbow injury, and Clark Schmidt recovering from TJ.

So they've got a lot of talent on the aisle that will be back in twenty twenty six to help improve that roster.

Their top five prospects per hour rankings here at Prospects Live have George Lombard at number one, Carlos LeGrande at two, Spencer Jones three, Dax Kilby four, and Elmer Rodriguez Cruz five.

They haven't made any big additions yet this offseason.

I can't imagine it stays that way, but they have lost a few players.

Devin Williams has signed with the New York Mets, while Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmick Kerr as free agents, so they could be back.

I think at this point most people would be surprised if that was the case, though Taylor, like I said, they're not doing a whole lot yet this offseason.

I know when I look at what the Yankees are doing, I think of that meme with the guy holding the stick, poking away and going, come on, do something, and I have to imagine that's what Yankees fans are feeling right now.

Again, I don't think they're done.

I think they're gonna make a move or two.

I don't know how big those moves are going to be because they're running out of options that could make a big time impact in what is again an incredibly competitive division.

But that's how I'm viewing the Yankees right Now, what are your thoughts on the team heading into twenty twenty six.

Yeah, I agree with you all most of it.

I think this is still a very good team.

But yeah, it does feel like they have more moves to make.

I know a big one that's been talked about is them trying to re sign Cody Bellinger.

I think that could happen.

Overall, I think a big part of this, like mentioned, just comes back to like how when do those big names return and how they look when they return.

Who is Anthony Volpi when he comes back from shoulder injury?

When does Garrett Cole come back?

What does he look like?

Same thing with rodn So there's a lot of injury questions.

I think you got to look at what are you getting out of Trent Grisham, What are you getting out of Ryan McMahon, Can Grisham repeat, Can McMahon bounce back?

All those questions go into this team, And I think that is a problem when, like you mentioned, you're in a division as competitive as this one is, Yet it's.

Hard to feel confident in your place in the division, in a competitive division like this, when you have that many question marks with some of your big names heading into the year.

Yeah, exactly, all right, Taylor.

We did a little bit better with our dynasty buys on the Yankees here last year in the big leagues, we talked about Austin Wells and Cody Bellinger.

Who do you have for us this year?

Yeah, this was a tough one for me this year, but I ended up going with the guy who, outside of the guy that you're picking, was probably the one that was the most forefront of my mind, and that's Jason Deminguz.

Last year was his first full season in the majors.

He had spent two prior seasons with major league time, but just twenty six games total in those two seasons, so it was really his full professional debut last year, and he started out really well.

His first half was great.

He had a one to eleven WRC plus on August first through his first ninety one games, had a sixty five WRC plus in his last thirty two games, So things really fell apart for him down the stretch there.

I think the biggest thing I could point to difference in his game prior to struggling was his poll rate.

It completely collapsed on that August first I mentioned he had a forty point seven percent poll rate.

It went down to twenty eight point six percent in his last thirty two games, and due to that we saw his home run per flyball rate crater as well.

It went from eleven point one down to just four point five percent.

And I couldn't really pinpoint exactly what happened there, but I do think fatigue might have played a factor.

It's worth noting that he had played just seventy six games in twenty twenty four and played significantly more than that last year.

Overall, he still finished the year with a one on three WRC plus, he had twenty three stolen bases, showed impressive tools ninety point six average TV one, twelve point two max.

He had a eighty fifth percentile hard hit rate, eightieth percentile bat speed, eighty fourth percentile sprint speed.

The contact wasn't awful.

He had a twenty six percent k rate, seventy five percent contact rate, eighty five percent zone contact rate.

Still just twenty two years old.

This is the guy who had tons and tons of expectations on him.

I think at times he's been overrated, but I think now he's a little underrated.

And he talked to Yankees fans they don't.

Like him at all.

I think in big part due to just bad defense the second half struggles.

He lost his playing time towards.

The end of the year.

The other issue for him is that there's big platoon splits.

He struggles against lefties.

He has for much of his minor league career as well, So I don't know that there's a lot of hope he can turn things around.

But again, still super young, and we've seen young players struggle with those platoon splits early on and then figure things out.

I think the real X factor here is going to be what happens if Cody Bellinger does come back, Like what does that mean for Jason Dimingus' role?

But I think all those questions are known by the person who rosters him right now, and I think that's what's going to drive the cost down.

I think the upside here is high enough that why not take a shot on him when his value is the lowest it's ever been.

Yeah, this is an interesting one.

I think it's going to be a tough sell to convince some people that he's a bye because of how high the expectations were for Jason Dominguez as a prospect right He got the nickname the Martian because of his other worldly power and speed potential, and that's still there to an extent, but it's not quite the top tier power and speed that people once thought he had.

The approach isn't fantastic, there's more swing and miss in his game than he'd like.

And the defense, although but doesn't necessarily matter for fantasy as much.

The defense hasn't been as advertised either, So I think if you can adjust your expectations for Jason Domingez, I do think there will be better days ahead, which makes him a good Dynasty buy.

But it's going to really depend on who you're dealing with, because some people are probably still valuing him a little bit too highly.

Those people are going to be really difficult to get him for a fair price from.

But if you're dealing with a Yankees fan who owns Jason Domingez, as you said, Taylor, Yankees fans really don't seem to like him right now, so you might be able to get really good value on Jason Domingez.

Yeah.

I mean, like you mentioned, it comes down to who rosters him.

But I think we can all agree his value has never been lower than it is right now, at least since he took off as a prospect.

Oh absolutely.

And when we're talking about these dynasty buys almost across the board, it's going to depend on who owns him and how they value these players.

So that's not something that's specific just to Domingas.

I just feel like for him in particular, because his value and his expectations were once so high, that's maybe a little bit more exaggerated than some of the other names we're gonna call out today.

Yeah, yeah, that's fair.

But speaking of you mentioned Taylor, maybe the name on the forefront of everybody's minds when it comes to a dynasty buy in New York right now, and that might make him a tricky buy.

But I'm looking at Ben Rice here because if you've seen his Baseball Savant page, you know what I'm talking about.

If not, I strongly urge you to go take a look, because there was not a single offensive metric on that page that he wasn't at least above average in last year.

And when it comes to things like barrel rate, hard hit rate, exit velocity, he was at least ninety second percentile in quality of con tech metrics.

You look at the average av that he posted last year ninety three point three miles an hour.

That was ninth in the entire league, putting him between Bobby Witt Junior and Raphaele Devers.

His hard hit rate was fifty six percent, that was eighth in the league, between Devers and Juan Soto.

So this is a tremendous talent.

I think still being largely undervalued despite the amount of hype that he's been getting.

And if you're lucky, he's still gonna have catcher eligibility in a lot of leagues out there, and he's gonna be an absolute cheat code at that position for the next year.

Now it does look like he's taking over as the Yankees everyday first baseman.

He should get everyday AB's there.

But even if he's only first base eligible this year, which he will be in most leagues going forward after this year, I think he's still worth paying a hefty price to go get because although he is getting hyped up this offseason, I still don't think people are putting enough respect on his name.

Yeah, I love Ben Rice.

I think this is a great pick.

As you mentioned, I do think it might be hard to acquire him via trade because I think everybody loves him.

Like he's been hyped a lot.

You're definitely gonna have to pay a hefty price for him.

And to me, like you mentioned, everything looks great.

It just comes down to how much playing time he'll get.

That was the real question last year.

I don't think that's going to be as big of a question this year.

It seems like he's penciled in there at first base, although, like we mentioned, the Yankees might still have some moves ahead of them.

But I think for now he looks like one of the better first basemen in the game, and I think you should value him as such.

Yeah, completely agree with you there, Taylor.

So let's move on to our prospect bias here.

I don't know that either of these guys rose significantly over the past year, but they were certainly better than our Blue Jays picks last season.

We called out Ben Hess and Brendan Jones.

Who do you have for us this year?

Though?

This is a name that I think a lot of people are getting on board with right now.

Yeah, going back to our picks from last year, I think both of them had marginal increases in value.

I think Brendan Jones, specifically I think much more highly valued than he was a year ago.

You were really early on the Brendon Jones bandwagon there, and I think Ben has increased his value as well.

Sorry, I have to give credit to Drew Wheeler on Brendan Jones.

He was the first one to start hyping him up.

I just hopped aboard that train that Drew was driving for us.

All, yeah, that is true.

It all originated with Drew there.

It's funny because I actually was looking at those two names specifically for who I wanted to maybe call out in this episode.

But then I decided, you know what, I'm going to try not to do any repeats this year.

I'm gonna try to avoid either players that we've done in the past years or players who have touched on in depth earlier this offseason.

So with that mind, when you had posted about this episode to Twitter, somebody had responded that they wanted us to hype up Dax Kilby, and you know what, I'm gonna do exactly that, because the more I look into Dax Kilby, the more excited I get.

This is a six to two, one hundred and ninety pounds shortstop, nineteen years old, and like I mentioned he's a guy I just keep pushing up my board.

When we had our fi IPD mock last week, I had him as my eighth FYPD player overall.

Greg picked him at seven, and I thought I was aggressive on him.

To see Greg pick him even earlier got me rethinking about how aggressive I needed to be on him, because I've been pretty vocal about the fact that I'm not really excited about a lot of hitters in this draft.

Jojo Parker, Eli Willitts.

They're fine, but I'm not really excited about him.

But the more I look into Kilby, I think I am really excited about him, and I honestly think in my mind, he's the third best player in this fyp draft, including the international guys.

Now, I don't think you need to draft him that way, because I think we have him in our composite FYPD ranks currently at ten without the international players.

I think for the most part, he'll go like mid to late first round.

But I look at him compared to like the college pitchers.

I want more Dax Kilby than I want those college pitchers.

I look at him compared to Willartson Parker, and again I don't think you need a draft him as high as those guys, But I want more shares of Dax Kilby than those guys because if you look at the scouting reports, Kilby has more power than Willets, He's got more speed than Parker.

But if you look specifically at the latest scouting reports that have come out, which are from Baseball America, the only one to have updated their reports post professional debut by Dax Kilby, Kilby actually has a higher hit tool and run grade than Jojo Parker while having the same power and defense grades.

And if you compare him to Willets, Kilby has a higher hit tool in power while having just a half grade less and run and field.

So I think when you compare those scouting grades, like Kilby looks like the better player.

Now, he didn't have the draft pedigree that those guys did.

He didn't go as high in the first round, so that's going to hold down the value.

But all of that is not even considering what Kilby did statistically in his debut as an eighteen year old in a ball During his draft season, Kilby posted a one to fifty nine WORC plus eighty seven percent contact rate four two point five percent swinging strike rate, which is just nuts more walks and strikeouts in sixteen steels in eighteen games.

And you look at his stat cast from single AA there luckily we have it his ex will but XBA x lug ev max EV fiftieth EV, ninetieth EV, hard hit rate, k rate, walk rate, chase rate, whiff rate, and swinging strike rate all ranked seventy eight percentile or higher at the level.

And this was a level where he was three years younger than the average player at Single A.

Now, he didn't get into a lot of power, and large part do it a fifty four point four percent ground ball rate, So that's definitely something to monitor going forward.

But power doesn't really seem to be a question for him, and all his scouting reports he's shown to have above average power.

Fangrafts has him as above average, Baseball America has him as above average.

I'm thinking back to last year's FIPD and I was higher than most on Connor Griffin.

I really aggressively pushed him up and he was a guy who even though I didn't have a lot of high picks and FYPD those kind of mid first round picks, I was doing everything I could to get a Connor Griffin everywhere I could.

I think it's going to be the same with Dax Kilby.

Now, I don't think Dax Kilby has the ceiling that Connor Griffin has.

I don't think he's that Saint caliber player.

But I do think that he's potentially the best hitter in this class, and I'm going to draft him as such.

And you mentioned this is to get your guys draft.

I think Kilby is my main guy at this point.

Yeah, I like this call out.

I considered him as well.

The one thing holding me back is that I think he's becoming a more and more difficult player to buy because I think a lot of people are seeing what you are seeing.

And when we did that FYPD mock last week, I believe it was James that said he has Kilby as his top prep shortstop in this class, ahead of Parker and Willets and those players, and he would have taken him and was.

He was one of many people upset with Greg for taking Kilby and sniping us on that pick.

So I like the pick.

I just wonder how easy he's going to be to get even in the middle of Round one at this point, given how much hype it is, I think, again we keep saying it, it's really going to depend on your league and how the people in your league and in your drafts value him, because his value depending on where you look.

He's anywhere from an early first round er to maybe a late second rounder in FYPDS.

So you really need to know the league that you're working with here to know how you need to target Dak Kilby.

I do like him as a target.

I think he's just becoming a difficult buy at this time of year.

Yeah, and I think that's all very fair.

But again you mentioned that white range and values.

That's what creates the buying opportunity, right, Like, there are leagues where he's going to go maybe third overall, but I think in most leagues he's going to go after pick five.

And there's a lot of leagues where he's going to fall to the back end of the first round.

And again it all depends on what league you're in.

But I think that creates an opportunity.

If you value him as a top of the first round hitter like I do, and you see him fall to mid first round or late first round like that, there's your buying opportunity.

Yeah.

Absolutely, the opportunities will be there.

It's just going to vary.

But Taylor, you mentioned before getting into Kilby that you didn't want to repeat anybody from last year or anybody that you've talked about already this offseason.

I'm gonna buck that, though.

I am repeating somebody I've talked about already this offseason, and a big part of it is because when I look at this Yankees system, there just weren't a ton of guys that I was interested in at value.

So I'm looking once again at Dylan Lewis.

I talked about him on my Prospect Crush team.

I just couldn't leave him out of this episode when I looked at the Yankees system as a whole, because I still think he's arguably the best value in the system right now.

This is a guy who went twenty twenty last year, twenty two home runs, twenty six stolen bases.

He struck out twenty three percent of the time, he walked ten percent of the time, and he lifts and pulls the ball at good rates.

Now the knock.

He did it all against younger competition in single A and high A as a college draftde I think that's a big part of why he's not getting as much recognition as he deserves and why I didn't push him any higher than about two ninety in my personal rankings.

That is still, though significantly higher than his consensus rank of four thirty one on our list.

And I just think that he's going to go twenty twenty again in double A this year, and I think when he does, he's going to get a lot more recognition.

His stock is going to rise, and I think he's going to go even well beyond where I have him right now.

I think this could potentially be a top one hundred name.

Now that's probably the upper end of outcomes, but I do think one way or another, Dylan Lewis is seeing his stock rise significantly in twenty twenty six.

Yeah.

I like to squall, and I've liked it since he brought up Dylan Lewis last year on the podcast.

During the season, you mentioned him being still underrated, and I one hundred percent agree with you.

This is a guy who went twenty twenty last year.

Decent approach and contact, good defender in center field.

I didn't mention it in my New Year's resolutions but you've probably noticed this offseason I've put more focus on defense with these prospects.

I do feel like it is something that we don't really consider as much as we need to for fantasy purposes.

And I've seen so many bats that I've been intrigued by in the past just get derailed by lack of opportunities at the big league level due to their defense.

So that is another one of my resolutions this year.

And again, Dylan Lewis is a good defender in center field that'll get him opportunities.

Has all the tools, he just needs to make the hit tool a little bit better.

He needs it to take a little bit of a step forward, and I think it could potentially do that.

And if it does that in the high miners, like you mentioned, his thought is going to skyrocket.

One little thing out I'll throw out there is he's still unrostered in a lot of our league's Kyle yet another player we'll be fighting over at FYPDS, I'm.

Sure, absolutely, Yet the list continues to grow.

Let's move on to the third place finishers in the AL East.

Last year, the Boston Red Sox, with a record of eighty nine and seventy three According to Roster Resource, Carlos Novas will be their catcher, Wilson Contreras at first base, Romy Gonzalez at second, Marcelo Meyer will be on the strong side of a platoon at third base, Trevor Story at shortstop, Roman Anthony in left field, Saydan Rafaela in center, will you are a bray You in Wright with Jared Duran as the DH Connor Wong, Nick Sogard, Nate Eaton and Masataki Yoshida will fill out their bench, while Garrett Crochet will be the ace of this rotation, with Sonny Gray, Brian Bao, Cutter Crawford, and Patrick Sandoval filling out the rest of the rotation or all this.

Chapman is set to be the closer, with Garrett Whitlock and Justin Slayton as setup men, while Greg Weiser, Jordan Hicks, Zach Kelly, Jovanni Moran and Ryan Watson round out the bullpen.

They do have Tristan Cassis recovering from a knee injury and Tanner Houck recovering from Tommy John expected to start the year on the injured list.

The top five prospects in the Red Sox system according to us here at Prospects Live are Peyton Toley at one, Connolly Early two, Franklin Arius three, Kyson Witherspoon four, and Anthony Aronson five.

They've made a couple of movie season, actually, a couple of different trades with the Saint Louis Cardinals have brought in the big names here for the Red Sox as They've brought in Wilson Contreras and Sonny Gray in those deals as well as a signing.

They lost Hunter Dobbins and Dustin May to the Cardinals, and Alex Bragman and Lucas Giolito are currently free agents.

Neither of them seem to be expected to return to Boston though, so Taylor, they're making some moves.

They are losing some talent, but they've brought in some solid talent as well.

I don't know about you.

My main questions with this roster revolve around the rotation and whether or not the four and five spots are actually going to be Cutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval.

Yeah, I think that's a big question mark there is what are they gonna get from the back of their rotation.

But they have a couple young arms in that minor league system ready to go in their top two prospects, like you mentioned Peyton Tolly and kind of the early So I think that provides them some depth, right, if they get a solid back end performance from Cutter Crawford, if they get a solid back of performance from Patrick Sandival.

We don't really know what Patrick Sandival is going to be coming back from injury there, So I think there's some concerns with the rotation, but the depth is good enough that I think they they can more than deal with that if it happens.

I just feel like this is an incomplete roster.

They're missing some moves here.

When you have Jared Durant as your DH, but you've got Roman Gonzalez is your second baseman, Like there's clearly a need at second.

Romey had a fine year last year, but like, I don't think anyone expects him to be the guy going forward.

They have that outfield depth.

Like I do feel like there's another move or two that's gonna happen with this lineup, but as currently construction, I think it's a good line I think it's a good rotation when you factor in those minor leaguers there, I think it's a good bullpen.

I think that all round this is a very good team.

But again, I just don't think it's quite fleshed out yet.

I'm with you, I don't think they're done making moves.

But even if they don't make anymore, I do think, as you said, this is a strong team that should continue to improve because they've got a lot of young talent that should continue to step forwards in the next few years.

Here Again, though, the big thing for me, I just find it really hard to imagine that they're going to start the year with both Connolly Early and Peyton Toley not in their big league rotation.

It's possible one of them starts the year in the minor leagues, but I just don't see Cutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval being the types of arms that can hold one or both of these guys off the big league roster.

Yeah, yeah, we'll definitely see, but I would have to spay both those guys spend most of the year up in the majors.

Yeah.

Absolutely, they'll find a way to get them up.

There are Dynasty Baya's last year, Taylor, Justin Slayton, and Von Grissom.

Grissom was my call out that obviously did not work out.

I was just expecting him to maybe get a little bit more of an opportunity than what he ultimately did.

How do you feel about your call out with Justin Slayton before we get into this year's.

By He had the opportunity.

That's the frustrating thing is like I thought he could become the guy there, He had opportunities, didn't do particularly well with those opportunities, and then dealt with injury.

So it was one of those where like, overall, I think it was a miss.

I think I got a little too cute in the selecting reliever there to begin with.

But yeah, I can't really call that anything other than a miss.

For me, I think I would agree with you.

I think it's a better call out than my Von Grissom call was.

We don't need to go in depth on that one.

I think everybody knows why it wasn't a good call out.

But I think we've got a couple of much better recommendations this year.

So who do you have for us?

Taylor?

Oh?

Yeah, And I think one thing people will realize as we're going through here, we've tried to vary it up when we're making these recommendations.

So sometimes it'll be higher end players.

Sometimes it'll be guys that aren't getting undrafted in fypds or whatever, and I think you got to factor that in on some of these hits and misses.

But that being said, I'm going with a much higher rated player that I did last year, and this year I'm going with Willy or bray You.

He's gotten some credit over the last few years.

He has plenty of fans, but I still think he's an underrated outfielder.

Won ten WRC plus last season career high twenty two home runs in four and sixteen play appearances, but he was limited by injuries and strict platoons last year.

Injured his calf on August seventeenth.

At that time had a one to seventeen WRC plus and those twenty two home runs.

After that injury, he struggled in his final seven games of the season, hitting just one forty three with a thirty six point four percent k rate, no home runs, and his performance was so bad.

It's hard to think of like a seven game performance really knocking down your season long stats, but he had a negative four WRC plus in those seven games, and it really did like push down his stat line.

He was actually a lot better and it appeared on the surface.

Red Sox have already said this offseason they want to give him more opportunities against left handed pitchers, which is something that he did not get last year.

Now, he's always had pretty bad platoon splits, so what he does with those remain to be seen.

But the reason why they want to give him at bats against left handers is he's a Gold Glove defender.

And again this goes back to what I was saying.

Defense has become a little bit more of a priority for me this offseason because that that will drive that playing time.

Now, we saw the batting average drop last year to two forty seven, but under the hood, he actually set a career best in K rate at twenty four percent, career best and swinging strike rate eleven point three percent, career best in contact rate at seventy eight point two percent, and a career best in zone contact rate at eighty six point seven percent.

He had a two seventy seven babb up big reason for the fall and average.

The other big reason was just that dreadful stretch post injury.

There you look at the EV's and hard hit rate from last year.

They were down a little bit, but the barrel rate and ISO were up.

He also ranked sixteenth percent hour higher at ex wOBA x lug our GV, barrel rate, bat speed, and walk rate.

Still just twenty six years old, I think there's a room for improvement here.

He's a late bloomer.

You can think he might have already broken out, but I think there's thirty home run potential in this bat here, and I think we're going to see an even bigger breakout in twenty twenty six with Willi or Brew.

I love this call out, Taylor.

I sent you a screenshot from my Draft and Hold league that I've been doing recently earlier this week, because before I even realized who you picked for the Red Sox, I in back to background, selected my Dynasty buy and your Dynasty buy now Draft and Hold, not Dynasty.

But I think that speaks volumes to the fact that I am buying in on both of these players this year.

I really like the Willia or bra you call out.

I agree with you that people are really sleeping on him here.

I think that this is going to be a big breakout year for him.

The main question I have as you alluded to when we were talking about our overall thoughts, is just what the playing time looks like for really everybody in this outfield.

It's a crowded outfield.

It's a crowded team, despite the fact that, as you said, they do have some gaps to fill.

So it's going to be interesting to see how everything shakes out.

But assuming he gets the playing time that he deserves, I think this is going to be a big year for Willier or Brayu.

Yeah, I've got to hear you say that, all right.

And on the other side of things, the other pick that I made in that draft and hold is Wilson Contraras Now, he's going to be thirty four in May, so he's a bit older than what most of our Dynasty buys are going to be throughout these previews.

But he's also a very consistent hitter, and now that he's moved out from behind the dish, I think we've got at least a few more good offensive years to come, because over the last five years he's been at or around a two fifty three fifty four to fifty slash with about twenty home runs on an annual basis, and really He's done that far more often than not throughout his entire career.

Then you add in the fact that he was just traded from Saint Louis to Boston this winter.

That means he's moving from more of a middle of the pack offensive park in Bush Stadium to the second most hitter friendly park overall in Fenway, and he's in a better lineup.

So even though he just set his career high with ADRBI last year, I wouldn't be shocked to see him surpass that this year and set a new career high.

And I also think he's got a good shot to set a new career high in home runs by hitting more than twenty five for the first time while staying consistent with those ratios.

So I think, despite his age, Wilson Contreras is a really nice dynasty buy for competing teams.

There's a big kind of, you know, qualifier there, because if you are a rebuilding team, obviously this is not someone you're going after.

That's going to be the case for most of our big league buys.

But when we're talking about a thirty four year old in particular, this is somebody that you really want to target if you are a competitor.

Yeah, I wasn't expecting this move him going to the Red Sox, but I do like the landing spot.

I will say, if you look at that stat cast expected home run metrics, he actually would have hit less home runs in Boston than Saint Louis last season.

So something to keep in mind there.

The other thing to keep in mind is losing that catch your eligibility really hurts him.

He's just an average first baseman rather than a high end catcher that he was.

I think to your point, that creates some buying opportunities.

I just don't think it's one that I'm maybe as excited for as you are.

I think he'll be fine, but I also I don't really see him taking a step forward or anything like that.

No, I don't think he's necessarily going to take a big step forward.

I mentioned I think he could set some career highs here.

I don't think we're getting thirty plus home runs and one hundred plus RBIs.

I think he's going to continue to be a steady contributor.

And I think first base is a position that falls off faster than people realize.

So if we're gonna get against maybe a tenth to twelfth overall, first basement.

I think there's more value in that and where people are valuing him right now because as you said, he's losing catch your eligibility, so people are pushing him down a fair bit.

And I just think that he is going to have again another good concert year where you're not going to have to break the bank to probably improve over what a lot of Dynasty teams are going to have at first base.

At the moment.

Yeah, that makes sense.

It's all about the value, right like, because cost is not going to be super high.

One thing I'll say is the current plans for him to split time at DH in first base with Tristan Cassis.

I don't know that actually happens.

I think there needs to be some moves made there if you currently have Jared Duran as your DH.

But I will say Cossas is a name I considered for buying just because the value is super low right now, doesn't seem to have a role coming back from injury.

There's still a lot of upside there.

I think the price is super cheap and just as a bonus name, I think he's one that you might want to enquire about this offseason, particularly now where he seems to be the dogment out there.

Yeah, definitely a lot of questions around Tristan Cassis our prospect buyas last year, though, Taylor, this is another one that you did quite well on somebody that you had been buying on for a while.

Yostinson Garcia was your call out where I had Joel and Cespids who did not turn out nearly as well, but we both went similar routes with our dynasty buys this year.

I really like your call out.

Tell us who it is.

Yeah, I talked about him on the Mock Draft podcast last week, but I still feel like he's a great value in fypds, and that's Kison Witherspoon.

I took him at nine in our FYPD mock and I feel like he's going to fall farther than that and a lot of drafts, including into the second round and on our composite FYPD list, which again does not include international players, he's currently ranked fourteenth, so I think there's opportunity to get him late first round, and I plan to get plenty of shares because I think this is a guy who was widely seen as a top ten draft prospect coming into the draft and widely seen as the best right handed college pitcher pre draft.

Fell to fifteenth overall, and according to Baseball America, that's the highest a college pitcher has ever been drafted by the Red Sox.

It was their first first round pitcher they've drafted since Tanner Houck in twenty seventeen.

This is not an organization that likes to spend a lot of their high draft picks on pitching, and they did just that with Kyson Witherspoon six two hundred and six.

He has the potential for four plus pitches in his fastball, curveball, sladder, and cutter.

Change up is still development, but as the potential will be in above average according to Fangrafts and the Sky reports say that the pitches work well off of each other, and I think with command improvements the profile could just tick up overall with all those different pitches.

And I think those command improvements could come because this is a guy who's relatively new to pitching.

He primarily played shortstop in high school, didn't really become a full time pitcher until twenty twenty four.

And the Red Sox are a smart organization.

They've had some recent success with drafted arms, despite like I mentioned, not investing a lot of draft capital in those.

And you look at pitchers they've drafted in the top five rounds since twenty twenty three.

Peyton Toley in twenty twenty four, second round, Brandon Neeley third round in twenty twenty four, he got hurt, hasn't debuted yet.

Brandon Clark fifth round in twenty twenty four, dealt with blisters and control issues, but still saw his stock rise and was a key piece in the Sunny Gray deal.

Matt Duffy fourth round pick in twenty twenty three, pitched well in his first full season, then tours ucl and then Connie Early fifth round pick in twenty twenty three.

So all of their pitchers they've drafted in the top five rounds, which none of them have been first round pitchers, and only two of them have gone before the fourth round in the last few years have either gotten hurt or been really good.

So it's one of the situations where I trust Boston and they're showing that they have a major belief in Kyson Witherspoon, and I think because of that, this is one where there's just a really good buying opportunity in FYPDS.

I would take him as early as the mid to late first round, and I think that's a lot earlier that he's gonna be taken in a lot of fypts.

Tell you what, Taylor, I am right there with you are consensus at pe Live on Kyson Witherspoon has him at fourteen.

I've got him at eight right now, and I've seriously considered moving him even a little bit higher than that.

I just don't know what people aren't seeing in Kison Witherspoon.

I think he's got tremendous upside As you said, relatively new to pitching, but has an array of potentially plus pitches, very strong command in an organization now that has done an excellent job in recent years, as you noted, not only drafting high end pitching, but developing it as well.

So I just don't know why he isn't more widely considered a top ten option in this year's class.

If you can get him again in that eight to ten range, I think that's great value.

Anything after that you are getting an absolute steal on Kyson Witherspoon.

Yeah, couldn't agree more all right?

As I said, I love Witherspoon.

I've talked about Marcus Phillips.

Those are both pitchers drafted within the top five rounds for the Red Sox.

But I've got another one here in Anthony Ironson, who I might be biased on this one because I watched him pitch in the deciding game of the College World Series.

Now I'll preface this by saying it's the only college baseball game that I watched last year.

But he was absolutely dominant in that game, and I think the Red Sox got an absolute steal at eighty seven overall in the draft.

This is a fastball that it typically grades out as a more average offering, but he did top out around ninety eight miles an hour in college, and there are reports of some unique metrics that could help it play up with professional coaching.

And again, he's in a fantastic development system for really everything, but for pitching in particular.

Now, the bread and butter for Iinsen are his breaking balls.

He showed an ability to really spin both a slider, which is thought to be the better of the two pitches, but a slider and a curveball.

They could both be at least plus offerings here.

The changeup is a little bit more fringy and could use some work, but he does command everything really well to help it all play up as a complete package.

Here now, he currently sits just inside the top forty FYPD names in our census ranks at pe Live, and I think being able to grab him at the end of the third start of the fourth that turn there in a twelve team league is just fantastic value on again, another arm that I think has more ceiling and floor in a great development organization than most people are giving him credit for.

Yeah, I like this call out over slot signing, which is always notable when that happens, and like you mentioned, up to ninety eight, but generally sits in the low nineties.

I think there's optanny for him to add more velo there, and I think the Red Sox could potentially make that happen.

Yeah, absolutely, I think that's the big thing is I do expect the fastball in particular to tick up a little bit, and maybe that's more velocity, maybe that's tinkering with the shape, maybe it's adding a sinker.

They've got a tendency to do that recently.

I think that they are going to help improve that fastball in particular, and make this a more well rounded arsenal.

Yeah, all right, let's move on to the Tampa Bay Rays, finished in fourth in the AL East last year record of seventy seven and eighty five.

According to Roster Resource, They'll begin twenty twenty six with Nick Fortes as their catcher, Jonathan Ronda at first base, Richie Pelasios at second, Junior Commonero at third base, Taylor Walls at shortstop, Chandler Simpson on the strong side of a platoon in left field, Cedric Mullins in centerfield, Josh Lowe on the strong side of a platoon in right field, and Yandy Diaz at DH with Hunter Fidusha, Ryan Villaide, Johnny de Luca, and Jake Freeley rounding out their bench.

Drew Rasmussen is expected to lead their rotation, followed by Ryan Pepio, Shane McClanahan, Steven Matts, and Joe Boyle.

Right now, they've got Edwin Yusetta listed as the closer, with Griffin Jax and Garrett Clevenger as the setup man.

I fully expect this to be a closer by committee in Tampa Bay, so I wouldn't necessarily gleaned too much off of that listing, but the rest of their bullpen is rounded out by Brian Baker, Mason Angler, Stephen Wilson, Cole Salcer, and Joandris Gomez.

They are projected to start the year with Manuel Rodriguez on the injured list as he is recovering from elbow surgery.

Their top five prospects, according to us here at Prospects Live are Carson Williams at number one, Theo Gillen two, Brody Hopkins three, Santiago Suarez four, and Xavier Isaac five.

Now, they haven't made a ton of big name additions, but they have made some moves here, adding Cedric Mullins on a one year deal and adding Jacob Melton in a three team deal as he's coming over from Houston.

Now they've lost some players, mostly due to trades as well as Brandon Lowe is headed to Pittsburgh and Shane Bosse is headed to Baltimore, with Pete Fairbanks signing in Miami and Adrian Houser signing in San Francisco.

So, Taylor, this is a team.

As I said, they've made some moves.

I don't know that they've necessarily gotten better on paper.

But you can just never count out the Tampa Bay Rays.

They generally overperform expectations, but I don't think they're gonna.

Do that this year.

I think this is the weakest I've seen this team in a while.

You know, you look at that lineup and it's like Nick Fortes, Richie Pelasio's, Taylor Walls not necessarily names that you want in a lineup.

I will say, I think that shortstop position it's probably gonna be Carson Williams for most, if not all, of the year.

We'll see if he can get a job out of Spring Tree.

Anybody's already made his debut.

There's a lot of questions around him, but I do think that he's definitely an offensive upgrade over Taylor Walls.

There.

The rotation, I feel like is weaker than it has been in the past, when you're relying on Steven Matts and Joe Boyle at the end there.

For me, this is a team that I think is going the other direction.

They had a bad year last year, and I think they're probably gonna be even worse this year.

Yeah, I do agree with you.

I don't think they're going to be as pesky as they have been in recent years.

I think the big thing that really signifies that for me is when you look at what's happening at second base now, going from Brandon Lau to Richie Plasios.

You mentioned to Taylor Walls and a Nick Fortes as well, and I'm I'm not a huge fan of a Chandler Simpson or some of these other guys.

I agree with you it's going to be a worst team.

But whether it's just my bias of seeing how they play the Jay's year in and year out and never really watching the Rays outside of that, I still feel like they'll be a pesky team.

Yeah, we'll see, Yeah.

We will definitely see.

Taylor.

Speaking of Brandon Lao, he was my big league dynasty by last year.

Yours was Christopher Morrell.

How do you feel about those callouts before we get into this year's.

I think your Lao call out was good.

My Morrell call out was not.

And let's move on.

Let's move on then, who you got for us this year?

I'm gonna go with a guy that we mentioned they acquired this offseason, and that is Jacob Melton.

So he was part of the Brandon low Jake Mangum and Mason Montgomery that Tampa gave up to get Jacob Melton and Anderson Brito in the three team deal, and I think Meltin was one of the big pieces of that trade and was already a bye for me this offseason when he was with the Astros, and that only increases now that he's moved to Tampa Bay.

You look at his debut last year, thirty two game debut, just a twenty two WRC plus, really horrible, but it's worth noting a lot of that came after injury and in spotty playing time.

So he started the season on the il with a back injury, played just seventeen games in Triple A before getting the call to the majors.

Hit two forty one in his first eleven games before hurting his ankle, and then after that he hit zero seventy nine, So he was under a one hundred batting average post ankle injury.

Even with all that, he showed good bat speed, good hard hit, good sprint speed, and you look at what he did in Triple A and it was phenomenal.

Thirty five games in Triple A again spent most of the year injured.

He posted a one to forty one WRC plus six home runs, twelve stolen bases, two seventy iso twenty percent k rate, eight point two percent swinging strike rate, eighty point eight percent contact rate in eighty seven point eight percent zone contact rate.

He drastically lowered his groundball rate from forty nine point three and twenty twenty four to just thirty eight point five percent last year, and per Prospects, Savant posted ninety second percent out or higher, which is pretty much elite marks in x WILBA, XBA, x lug ev max EV ninetieth ev barrel rate.

Hard hit rate also posted great with chase and poll air rate numbers at triple A.

Plays good defense heading to a good organization that'll get the most out of them.

You look at the scouting reports.

Baseball America gave him fifty hit, fifty five power, sixty run and fifty five field.

Fangrass has him as sixty five raw power.

This is a very toolsy player across the board.

I think the price is going to be super cheap after that debut, and he's in a weird spot right now.

He's debuted.

He still shows up on some prospect lists, but he's not actually on our prospect list because we had him as being graduated based on service time, whereas other outlets don't.

So it's one of those where like he's not even on every prospect list, so he's been that no man's land, bad debut, not projected to be on the roster to start this season.

I think this is a great buying opportunity for Jacob Melton, and I feel like the price is going to be fairly low.

This is another one of those callouts I mentioned earlier that there were a few I wish I had thought of earlier.

Meltain's one of those.

I love this.

I'm one hundred percent on board.

I think the big thing here is you look at roster resource, he's not mentioned even on the bench in the big league club.

But I have a hard time believing he's not going to spend most of the year in the big leagues.

And like you said, the struggles that he showed in his debut last year are going to suppress his value.

And I think he's going to be pretty easy to acquire this offseason.

Yeah, and actually I think I'm gonna try to make some traits for him.

Prior to posting this podcast, so we'll see.

I look forward to seeing if you're able to pull any of those off.

But Taylor, I am looking at Jonathan Ronda here, and a big reason why is I just don't think people realize how good he was last year in what was really his first opportunity at regular playing time.

Now he did miss some time, he played just one hundred and six games, but in that time he hit three sixteen, had a three ninety three on base percentage, and posted a four eighty nine sugging percentage.

That's about as close to that coveted three four five triple slash as you're gonna get without actually achieving it.

I think many people are gonna see that and think, oh, it was a fluke.

He's not gonna be able to repeat that.

But if we look at his expected numbers, they were in line with, if not better than, what he actually posted, with a two ninety four expected batting average and a five to ozh six expected slighting percentage.

Now, he chased and whiffed at just average rates, but his quality of contact is what stands out.

It was off the charts.

His average exit velocity, hard hit rate, and sweet spot rate were all at least ninety fourth percentile in the league.

Now as a first baseman.

We talked about it earlier, they're a little bit tougher to commit to as a buy.

It does hurt his value a little bit.

But he's in Tampa Bay.

He doesn't have terrible platoon splits, so I think he's gonna remain in this lineup more often than not.

And despite excellent quality of contact that he showed last year he hit just fourteen home runs, I think he could hit twenty or more with continued stellar ratios in twenty twenty six.

And while some people are probably going to note the move back to Tropicicana Field as a downgrade field wise, they're maybe even gonna call him a cell.

I think that's gonna open a fantastic buying opportunity.

And I'm gonna see if I can grab some Jonathan or on the shares this winter.

Yeah, I think this is a good call out.

They have plenty of playing time hitting in the middle of the lineup.

He's one of the best hitters left on that roster, so again, gonna be important for him to be in that lineup all the time.

And yeah, I think that's a great call up.

All right, Taylor, we had a couple we'll say interesting dynasty.

By this year.

You did much better than I did on the prospect side of things in Tampa Bay, where you called out Theo Gillen and I had Dylan LESCo.

This is one that I don't really want to talk a whole lot about, So let's move on to this year's recommendations on the prospect side of things.

Yeah, I feel like I did pretty good in last year's picking in the FIPD guy, and I'm gonna go back to the well this year.

I have a trio of Tampa Bats that are my late second round, early third round FYPD ranks.

Two of the I already talked about Brendan summer Hill and Daniel Pearce.

I'm gonna talk about the third one now and Slater de Brunn.

And he was the thirty seventh overall pick in the draft by the Orioles.

Signed for an overslought bonus of four million, which is tied for the twentieth highest bonus in the draft.

And this is another one of those all round profiles that I really like.

He's got above average head tool, plus speed, plus defense, fringy power.

But there are reports that the strength and the power are increasing.

He's undersized at five to nine, but draws a lot of comparisons to the guys like Corman, Carroll, Slade, Colwell, and I think Baltimore has a really good track record of drafting high school hitters under Michael Aas you look at Gunnar Henderson, Kobe Meo, Jackson Holiday, and last year in Nate George.

They've drafted a lot of really good high school hitters.

And now he's going from Baltimore to one of the best development organizations in Tampa Key piece in the return for Shane Boz I just think there's a lot more potential there than people are seeing.

I think the price is really good in fipds, and even if the power doesn't come along, I think this could be an impact fantasy player.

But I think there's potential for averager better power there, and that has me really interested in Slater de Brunn.

This is one player Taylor that I don't think we're going to be fighting over.

I don't see the power coming around like you do.

I wasn't a big fan coming out of the draft.

The trade to Tampa Bay does help, but I would still much rather take a shot on FYPD names with more known power tools here, because that is where most of the value comes in fantasy.

Now, again, the move to Tampa Bay helps.

We always like knowing that Tampa is interested in players.

What are we hoping for?

Best case scenario here is this Jet Williams.

I think it's better than Jet Williams, but yeah, maybe something in that realm.

I think there's potential for more power there.

Now, I will say I'm a fan of Jet Williams, so that's I'm not knocking him.

If Slater de Brount ends up as a Jet Williams like player, I think that's a fantastic outcome.

I just think that is a very high end outcome first to Brun and it's just not a shot that I'm looking to take.

Yeah, that's fair.

I am gonna go back to the FYPD well here though, with Cooper Fleming another prep shortstop here, second round pick of the raise, fifty third Overall, it's a similar profile in that it's more hit over power.

The speed isn't anywhere near what Slater debrun is, but the power potential for Cooper Fleming is significantly higher.

When we talk about a player listed at six foot three, one hundred and ninety pounds, and he's an explosive athlete who although he wasn't a two way player in high school, he did step on the mound every now and then, and he got up to ninety two miles an hour with the fastball.

So there's a good hit tool, strong approach here.

There's plenty of power potential even if it's not currently present, and I think he's gonna get a lot of opportunity and chances to succeed because of the hit tool and the approach.

He is currently ranked sixty seven among FYPD players in our consensus ranks.

I've got him just inside my top sixty, and because the power is mostly a projection player right now, I do think that the end of the draft or on waivers after, depending on how deep your league goes, is probably the time to grab him.

But in even deeper leagues, I'm absolutely targeting him in the late rounds and I think that if or when that power potential starts to shine in game, he's really gonna rise.

Yeah.

I think with him, like there's questions on everything, right, I think this is an interesting pick.

I the fact that Tampa spent a second round pick on him, makes my eyes open a little bit.

Again, you're not gonna have to pay much for him, so I think the values there, But I just wonder like you're hoping for the power projection.

I haven't read great things on the hit tool.

He doesn't have a lot of speed, Like I don't know.

It just seems like maybe you're hoping for average slightly above average tools across the board.

But even that you're requiring some sort of step forward across the board.

But again, the draft capitol, the landing spot makes me believe that could potentially happen.

Yeah, the opportunity cost here is a big part of why I'm looking at Cooper Fleming.

There were other names that I considered that were maybe a little bit more obvious, but like you said, we like to mix things up a little bit here.

We don't always want to go with the popular names.

And I think a little further down the draft, this is a nice name to take a shot on.

Yeah, definitely one that I hadn't really considered, but on my radar now for sure.

All right, let's finish things off today.

Taylor with the Baltimore Orioles.

They finished last in the Al East last year with a record of seventy five and eighty seven.

According to Roster Resource, they'll have Adley Rutchman as their catcher, Pete Alonso at first base, Jackson Holiday on the strong side of a platoon at second base, Jordan Westburg at third, Gunner Henderson at shortstop, Taylor Ward in left field, Colton Kowser in centerfield, Dylan Beavers on the strong side of a platoon in right field, and Samuel Bissio on the strong side of a platoon at d h.

The bench is filled by Ryan Mountcastle, Jeremiah Jackson, Tyler O'Neill, and Leodi Taveres.

Their rotation is expected to be led by Trevor Rodgers, followed by Kyle Bradish, Shane Bows, Dean Kramer and Zach Eflin.

Their closer is expected to be Ryan Helsley, with Andrew Kittridge and Keegan Aiken as the setup men, followed by Cad Stroud, Colin Selby, dietrich Ens, Rico Garcia and Tyler Wells rounding out the bullpen, with Felix Bautista expected to start the year on the al as he is recovering from shoulder surgery.

According to Prospects Live, the top five prospects in Baltimore are Samuel Bissio at one, Dylan Beavers two, Nate George three, Trey Gibson four, and Esteban Maheel five.

They've made some big moves this offseason.

They haven't necessarily lost a ton from a major league standpoint, but they have added Pete Alonso on a five year deal, Ryan Helsley on a two year deal, and Shane Bose in a trade with Tampa Bay.

So, Taylor, I think we can probably agree that this is a team.

While they've made some maybe interesting decisions on where they have added, they've probably gotten better than what we were looking at coming into the off season.

Oh yeah, for sure better.

I just I'm still confused by the roster construction here.

A lot of hitting they brought in that is just redundant.

So we'll see how the roster shicks out the rest of the offseason.

But yeah, I think it's definitely one of the better lineups in this division that has some pretty good lineups in it.

Yeah.

Absolutely.

The addition of Alonso certainly strengthens the offense.

Boz and Hellsley help on the pitching side of things.

But I think the success of this team will still hinge on how well the arms perform, because outside of some of these additions, I'm not super confident in many of the arms that they have here, So I think they still have work to do if they really want to hang with the rest of the division.

But I do think that they are moving in the right direction.

Yeah, all right, Taylor, So we'll get into our last few Dynasty buys for the episode here.

Last year we were looking at Kyle Bradish and Jordan Westburg.

Quick thoughts.

How do you think we did their last year?

I think it was a weird season for both, right, I would anticipate both value going up this year.

Westburg dealt with injuries last year, British dealt with injuries last year, so it was one of those where, you know, incomplete, I think they both performed well when they were on the field, So yeah, I would anticipate that to.

Really show itself this year with both those guys.

Yeah, I think there's a chance that we could have really repeated both of them this year and still felt pret good about calling them buys.

We did pick two different names this year, though, So who do you have for us on the big league side of things.

Yeah, I will say I did think about doing British again this year.

There were a lot of names I thought about this year, Abby Rushman as one, maybe even like a Jackson Holiday or Samuel Bisseiel, though those guys values still really large.

Kobe Mayo, whose value is like at.

An all time low right now, ended up going with Colton Kowser, who I know we're going to disagree on.

We've talked about him in the past.

I know you're not a fan, but I still believe and I think last year it was a miserable year, but it was a last year in his second MLB season, as he dealt with a fractured thumb two fractured ribs, which he played through.

At the time it was just called like general soortis and a concussion.

He still managed to put up sixteen home runs, a one ninety ISO and fourteen stolen bases and three hundred and sixty played appearances.

Contact was a huge problem.

For him continues to be the theme for him in his professional career.

The strikeout rate increased five percent, the contact rate dropped four percent, so went from bad to even worse.

However, he did have a fifty five point drop in babbitt last year, and combined with the contact issues, that created a sub two hundred average, which is not what you want to see, especially in batting average leagues.

But overall, I think it was just a lost season.

I expect him to improve in twenty twenty six.

I think now is a great time to buy low because of the sub two hundred batting average.

I think there's a lot of people who don't believe in him, and the Oils do seem to believe in him.

Despite like we talked about, glut of hitters there.

He seems poised to be there everyday centerfielder.

Now there is Enrique Bradfield Junior hanging out in the miners there who's probably gonna have that job long term.

But I do feel like the Oils believe in Kowser.

I believe in Kowser.

The powers really as gradyvs.

Burrel, hard hit bat speed, and chase rates last year.

I just think he needs some better health look and the hit tool needs to take a step forward, but I think it can.

Yeah, I'm, as.

You said, not as high on Kowser as you are.

I do like this as a buying opportunity, though I think last season has suppressed his value enough where he's an intriguing by because of what it's going to cost you.

I'm still not a huge fan.

The hit tool needs to improve dramatically for me to like him, but I do think that the opportunity here is significantly better than what it was a year ago.

Awesome.

That's more positive than I thought you would be, so I'll take it.

Taylor.

I think you are going to be quite positive about my big league by here because this is somebody that you recommended as your minor league by last year, and that's Dylan Beaver's I'm riding that into my big league by this year, even though he is still technically prospect eligible.

But he absolutely tore up Triple A last year.

He had a three four five slash, It was a nine to thirty five ops A, one fifty two WRC, plus eighteen home runs, twenty three stolen bases, and he did all of that in just ninety four games in Triple A.

Then you take a look at what he did in the big leagues, and all of a sudden, we've got a twenty two home run twenty five steel season across one hundred and twenty nine total games, and if we look specifically at his time in the big leagues, it was a one to twenty five WRC plus, despite the fact that he hit just two twenty seven and saw his W and K rates trend in the wrong direction following that promotion.

But a big reason why he still had such a strong WRC plus is because he actually chased even less and walked more in the big leagues than he did in Triple A, where he already showed stellar marks in those regards, and he showed a strong ability to impact the ball when he did connect.

Now, we've seen countless prospects struggle a bit in their first go of the big leagues in recent years, and I fully expect the contact rates to trend back in the right directions for Beavers in twenty twenty six.

The main question here is what the playing time will look like.

But I do think that he's going to settle into an everyday role by the time the season is over, and by then any price you'd have to spend on him right now is probably gonna look pretty cheap.

Yeah.

I obviously love this call out.

I've been a Beavers fan for a long while now, and like you mentioned, I had recommended him last year.

This is one where I feel like I'm lockstep with you.

If the kind of questions about the playing time and the log jam there have any kind of buyopportunity on Beavers right now, I would take it because I just feel like he's gonna have a phenomenal year.

He's gonna be part of a really good lineup.

I'm not worried about the playing time.

I'm I'm all bored for Dylan Beavers, all.

Right, Taylor, As I mentioned, he was your prospect by last year, mine was Nestor Herman.

I think you did much better than me on this one, but I do think Herman was still a marginal win for me here.

So who do you have for us this year as your prospect to buy out of the Oriel system?

Yeah, this is one where I was tempted to go with Luis d Leone, Aaron Estrada, a couple prospects I've talked about previously, but again I wanted to pick a new name.

I thought about Uhiwa loy from the FIPT class, but I also wanted to pick a player who was not FIPD because every other prospect I've existed so far is FIPD.

So that's why one with Nate George relatively highly ranked prospect.

We have him at number seventy three in our composite rankings, but I feel like he could take a step forward this year.

Was fantastic in his pro debut last year at age nineteen, spent time at Complex, Single A, and HIA with a one to fifty eight WRC plus across the three levels and really notable a one to thirty two WRC plus at HIA as a teenager, really great to see.

Did not strike out a lot, showed good contact skills, stole fifty bases in eighty seven games, and that coincides with the Scotty reports.

He gets run grades up to seventy again.

Going back to the defense, his defense grades out as double plus.

Profiles to be a good center fielder.

That'll provide him plenty of opportunities.

The real quick question for him is going to be the power.

Different outlets give him fringe to average grades forty five to fifty, but I think that there's above average raw power there.

I think that with further development as he ages, that power could increase, and I think we're going to see him reach DOUBLEA this year at the age of twenty.

And I think if you can show a little bit more power with the speed and the contact ability he's already shown at the high miners at that young age, I think he's absolutely in a skyrocket up rankings, even starting at a pretty high spot in the seventies there.

So I really think now is the last chance to buy Nate George for any kind of a good value.

And shout out to Lucas Morrell at the Prospect prof on X.

He has posted these player cards and the first one he did was Nate George and I really appreciate that because again I think this is a guy who is really in a skyrocket.

Yeah, I really like this pick.

I'm with you.

I think people are maybe a little bit hesitant on where the upside is, but I think there's significant upside here.

He rose a ton last year and I think that's just going to continue.

You though, said that you wanted to avoid an FYPD name here for the Orioles, I am going back to the FYPD and I'm looking at Ike Irish here.

Now.

I'll admit when I first started digging into this FYPD class.

I wasn't crazy about Irish.

His professional debut left a sour taste in my mouth.

But something James said in our FYPD mock last week is something I had heard before and really stuck with me.

And it's the fact that Irish had some of the best data in the college class in twenty twenty five, and yet nobody seems to be excited about him.

Because this is a guy who hit three sixty four, four sixty nine seven ten at Auburn in his draft year.

Seven to ten was his slugging percentage, so that's an eleven seventy nine ops.

He had nineteen home runs, just a fourteen percent strikeout rate and a thirteen percent walk rate.

He was drafted twenty third overall.

I believe it was by James in that mock draft last week.

And if you can get him in the mid to back end of the second round of a twelve team draft for your FYPDS, which is where that would be, which is where our rankings have him, I think that's really good value because whether it's that tough pro debut that he had, whether it's the uncertainty around his defensive home because there are question marks there, and he did split his time pretty evenly last year in his pro debut between catcher, first base, and right field.

But whatever it is, maybe there's something I'm completely unaware of, but people just seem to be off of Ike Irish in general.

And I think that if you can get the above average hit and power tools that he's got, with the track record that he has in a really strong conference in college in that twenty to twenty four range, I think there's pretty good value to be had in Ike Irish.

And he's someone that I'm starting to come around on.

Yeah, I like the pick.

I think he's one that I'll probably try to get a share to of.

I just I do wonder ultimately where the defensive home is.

And also was a pretty bad debut twenty game sample larger than most professional debuts in a draft season, struggled with a fifty four point seven percent ground ball rate as a twenty one year old at single A that that gives me some pause there.

I'm not abandoning ship or anything like that, Like it wasn't that bad, but I am not as excited about Irish as you are.

Yeah, I'm still not crazy about him.

I'm just I'm more optimistic about him now than I was, say two weeks ago.

All right, Taylor, that rounds things out in the Al East.

We do quickly want to wrap things up though, with our predictions for the division.

So how do you have things shaking out in twenty twenty six?

Yeah, this is a hard one to rank.

I feel like there's we're not taking things off easy here.

No, I'm going to cop out and do a little bit of like what happened last year.

So I'm gonna do the Blue Jays leading the division, than the Yankees, than the Red Sox.

I feel like any of those three could really win the division, along with the Orioles too.

I think there's a chance the Ools could win the division.

So I have the Ools number four, and then I think the Rays are clearly below these other.

Teams and have them finishing in last.

So I've got things pretty similar to you.

I've got the Blue Jays at the top.

I've got the Red Sox at two though, and the Yankees three.

I just have a few more questions about the Yankees right now than I do the Red Sox.

But I'm with you that any of those top three teams could win the division.

I've got the Orioles kind of a tier down, maybe in a tier by themselves at four here.

Again, anything's possible, but I'm not sure I'm as confident that they've got a legitimate shot to win the division.

But the Rays, despite everything I've said about them continuing to be a pesky team, I think they're a clear number five in this division right now.

Yeap.

And what's funny is I had Red Sox two as well that I switched it at the last minute here as I was looking at like, yeah, maybe I like the Yankees a little bit better, But I also think the Yankees are signaling they're gonna continue to do more this off season than the Red Sox as well.

Yeah, if we start factoring that in, it might change.

But where they're at right now, I've got the Red Sox maybe a halftick.

Above yep, I can't argue that.

All right, Taylor, We are going to round things out this episode quickly with a listener email.

This one comes to us from Eric Eastman, who asks us who are some prospects that either had a rough year in the miners or graduated to the majors.

But struggled that you're buying low this offseason for dynasty.

So I've got a couple of names here, Taylor one that kind of fits into each of these categories.

What about you, Who are you looking at as far as somebody that maybe struggled either in the majors or miners last year that you'd be interested in this off season.

Yeah.

I think for me, Jacob Melton is a guy that I talked about earlier that struggled upon his debut and then I'm buying this offseason.

Another guy in that similar mold is Cjkaphis struggled upon call up sixty three WRC plus his first twenty four games, but then figured things out look better at the end of the season.

His final twenty games a one forty five WRC plus.

The strike up rate, contact rate, and zone contact rate all significantly improved as his season went on post debut.

Overall, his debut was a ninety six of RC plus, but he had a one ninety five ISO twenty seven point five percent k rate just turned twenty four.

I think there's more improvement to come.

I really like Cjkphiss, and I think this is a guy who people are down on right now after a subpar debut, and I don't think they should be.

Yeah, I'm with you on both those names.

I like them as byes as well.

The big league struggle that I'm buying in on as a bounce back this coming year is Christian Campbell.

We've talked about him a little bit already.

He started out tremendously hot last year, hit a wall, things fell apart.

Then he got sent back down to Triple A, where he looked better, but the power never really came back.

And then reports started coming out this winter that he lost a bunch of weight last season and struggled to impact the ball in the same way.

And they've been really working with him this year to help him put on and keep on weight.

So that's a name that I'm looking at as a potential bounce back who could really help the big league roster in Boston this year.

And then on the other side of things, a player who maybe had a tough year in the minors is Luke Dickerson.

Now, it wasn't a terrible year by any means, but I think people were expecting a little bit more out of him.

I think, in particular, when it comes to the contact and the strikeouts.

I think there was a little bit more concern there than expected.

There's still a lot of power and speed potential here though, and I do expect things to improve in the contact department in general.

Though, as sort of an overarching rule, these are two types of players that I think you should be targeting in the offseason.

We're looking at FYPD names in someone like Luke Dickerson and players who made their big league debuts in Christian Campbell.

So if you believed in them going into the year and they struggled in their debuts in their respective levels, as long as they weren't absolute disasters, I think these are players to go by if they struggled a little bit, because you had conviction on these players for a reason.

If you still believe in them, this is the time to go get them because there's a pretty good chance that these are the types of players that could bounce back the following year.

Yeah.

Yeah, I like both these call outs.

I was a huge Luke Dickerson fan last year in FYPD.

Still like them.

Christian Campbell.

I have a lot of shares.

I've been asked about a lot of shares this offseason.

I'm holding onto all of them.

I really do think a bounce backs in store.

The reports coming out about how he lost the weight and that really led to some of his struggles.

I just think he's got that contract.

There's tons of bounce back opportunities.

He would have been my dynasty buy for the Red Sox.

But I think initially you had at him as your dynasty bicorrect, and then.

I did yes, and I ended up changing my mind in part because I knew we had this question and I thought he maybe fit a little bit better here than in that section.

And I've had an idea that I wanted to talk about Wilson Contreras.

Anyways, Yeah, now I'm all aboard Christian Campbell as a buy this offseason.

Like I said, I am holding tight to my shares.

I think the real question is where he ends up, because it sounds like they want him to play outfield, and.

We've already talked about that.

Outfield is overflowing, so I don't know that we're going to see him playing for Boston at the start of the year.

I think it might take some time.

So there is buy an opportunity there.

I would jump on it and I plan to try to put some offers out there in leaks where I don't have.

Christian Campbell, Yeah, absolutely, I think he more than anybody, is one of my big targets here.

There's a reason we were so excited about him last year.

That kind of talent doesn't just disappear exactly, all right.

That is everything we have for you all today.

Thank you for joining us.

If you enjoyed this podcast, please give us a rate and review and give us a follow while you are at it.

You can find me at Sonny Underscore one eight on X and Sonny one O eight on Blue Sky, and you can find Taylor at Dynasty Pickups on both.

You can also get a hold of us with all of your Dynasty Baseball questions at Dynasty Baseball Pickups at gmail dot com.

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Thank you all for listening.

We'll see you next time.