Episode Transcript
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Patreon dot com, slash Padresta, Welcome to the Pondre Santov everybody, We're back together again, and all it took was everything.
Speaker 2Greg Elston, Chris Reid, Rayfie Kanter.
I'm down in San Diego and I feel great.
Speaker 1I think I had three cups of tea, just got off of a wave Pa gig like, I'm feeling fine, fine and firm.
Speaker 2Meanwhile, Chris Reid, how you doing?
Speaker 3There'd be plague in the blankets in Los Angeles.
Speaker 2Poor Chris is COVID out.
He's got COVID.
Speaker 1And then over here we got rafe whose also will but apparently not COVID.
So you can even be sick and not have COVID.
Speaker 4You can apparently you can just have a good old fashioned cold, which I always imagine as like Osmosis Jones running through me.
Speaker 5And so.
Speaker 4We're just sipping spin drifts and tea and honey, we're gonna you know, it's not making me sick the Padres these last two days.
Speaker 1How about the week before.
I would like to suggest that maybe both of you got sick.
Yeah, okay, as his home of the Padres horrible play and now you are suffering through it.
Speaker 3Well.
Speaker 1Meanwhile, healthy happy me has bored myself a little whiskey drink at the end of a long work day, which goes into our fun pod day as we record this on Sunday, September seventh, twenty twenty five, and the Podres beat the Rockies today eight to one, after holding off the Rockies yesterday ten to eight, after like almost on the conversion table of being a course field getting perfect.
Speaker 2Game by Kyle Freeland.
Speaker 1And I know it was a three hit shutout, but basically when you factor in cors, that's like being perfect gamed, which was the end of a five game losing streak.
Speaker 2Guys, We're going to.
Speaker 1Go through it all on tonight's show, from the storylines that cropped up over the course of this week to potentially a momentous lineup decision that was made today.
If it stays, it changes the season one way and another.
It's going to change the season.
So we'll talk about that.
We'll talk about the funniest thing happening on Saturday night, as La managed to turn a franchise.
Speaker 2Milestone into a whoopsie.
Speaker 1And now the Padres, guys, the Padres like a senior in high school that is already quiet quitting because they've sent out their college applications, like they just cruised through a week, did no homework, turned in no assignments until the very end.
And because they've got I guess a teacher that's their best friend.
Speaker 2They still gained the grade over the course of the.
Speaker 3Weak because they had they had done a whole bunch of studying, you know, earlier in the year, and then the first semester they turned in some decent grades and you know, they came back from winter vacation just focused and sturdy, and you know, I don't want to say they've earned the I can't even say it.
The Liais is a fairy, the Lias Fairy.
You just went to France, the Lesie Fair.
Speaker 2That's right next to the ren Fair.
Speaker 5That's yeah.
Speaker 2But go ahead.
Speaker 3I believe Lilith fair that's what it was.
But yeah, so like, I don't want to say they've earned this attitude because had they played just a little bit better against a surging Orioles team and a not surging at all Twins team, you know, we're feeling pretty damn good about their chances of winning in the division.
Instead, we've got some exciting baseball in front of us, but no guarantees.
Speaker 4Yeah, you know, there were probably three or four different points you could point to in the last week and a half, two weeks where I thought we'd be looking back at the end of the season and say that's the moment we lost the division.
It turns out the Dodgers had four or five points in the last two weeks where they could say the same thing.
So it kind of cancels each other out.
It's kind of crazy.
So I don't know, I will get into this weekend.
I think Friday was the lowest point of the season.
Speaker 5That's just for me.
Speaker 4Maybe you guys feel differently, and to think the Padres actually gained ground just shows you how desperate things have gotten up in La So bully for us.
Speaker 1Yeah, I said this to you Rafee on our Saturday night postgame show for our patrons, and you know, just kind of echoing and affirming what you just said.
Speaker 2One of these teams is.
Speaker 1Going to say after the year that the first week of September is where it all fell apart.
One of these two teams is gonna say that, because realistically, the Dodgers, just by playing five hundred baseball would be four or five games up on San Diego right now.
And conversely, if the Padres had played around five hundred baseball, they'd be two or three games up in the National League West and things would be much more sharply defined.
Instead, both teams muddled around, did nothing, and somehow let kind of both Arizona and San Francisco think that they're gonna get a dying gasp at this and get to make a last two weeks run.
Speaker 2That's what happened over the course of these two weeks.
Speaker 1Meanwhile, the Cubs, the Phillies, the Brewers have all established for themselves comfortable distance between themselves and San Diego or LA for that matter.
Speaker 3I mean, it's the same distance between us and the Giants, or even even less distance.
So I still kind of think anything can happen.
And I know the Diamondbacks are playing good.
Have you guys seen who their latest up and coming starting pitcher is one Nobille chrismat Nebille Chrismatt turned in a quality start the other night for Arizona and has been sharp in like three straight appearances.
So yeah, I get September.
Boys, it's bonkers ball.
Speaker 4Yeah, I mean, you know, not to leap frog the menu a little bit, but but I think what you just said, Craig underscores how important it is to win the division for the Padres this year, because that's the only way that you're going to guarantee that you're playing at home in the Wildcard Series.
It's looking increasingly unlikely that they catch the Chicago Cubs, and if they do not win the division and things hold in the place they're at and they get the five seed, they will be going to Chicago to play at a cold and windy Wrigley Field in October, in a ballpark they haven't played in since April, so you know, with at a time where I'm sure the IVY hadn't even grown in yet, like just like just it's just it's a very very specific place and that's honestly, maybe even more than La the place I'm scared to play the most in the wild card rounds.
So it is absolutely imperative that the Padres are able to win the division, even if they do not get to secure a buy through it, because then they'll get to play at home, which has been so critical for their success this year.
Speaker 1Well, to get there, a couple things need to turn around, because San Diego's form has been close to abysmal for two straight weeks, and that's been about the length of time since we've had a true full show because both you guys had vacation heading into Labor Day and trips, and then this week, you know, as a result, we've had the full week since.
The primary issue for the San Diego Padres right now, the number one thing confronting aj Preller directly, is their starting rotation.
Speaker 2The club just just.
Speaker 1Now right got three decent performances out of their starters in Colorado against the worst team in baseball.
They got a quality start from Randy Vasquez six innings, three runs, they got five innings from Dylan Ceese, and they got five innings from Nick Povetta, And that truly qualifies as the three best starts the Padres have had in the last two and a half weeks.
You know, Nestor Cortes has pitched himself out of a job he got put on the Phantom.
Speaker 2I l I don't think we'll see him again until and unless things get way way worse.
Speaker 1You know, JP Sears was here, he's gone, Vasquez is back.
I think that's an improvement.
I think mistakes were made taking Randy out of the rotation at all in hindsight, and you know, hindsight is wonderful to have A j doesn't get that opportunity, but he tried to upgrade the rotation and he downgraded it with Sears and Cortes, both guys were worse than Vasquez, and of course both guys were way worse than Ryan Bergert would depend on that for a little bit later.
But then you get to you Darvish, who has really really been a erratic and even when he's good, it's been a little bit shady because he's just making things up on the fly.
And it's just it's clear with the with the reduced arm angle, the balls move in different directions.
There's not the command that you expect, and that's why you.
I believe, in my opinion, that's why you has been bedeviled by so many home run balls is because he's like, Oh, I've got it, I've got the movement.
Oops, that one didn't move the way I wanted bang, and it's out of here.
And and guys, right now, September seventh, we're hoping that in the next three days, Michael King takes a turn for the San Diego Padres.
Speaker 2I dare say his.
Speaker 1Health and effectiveness is right, if not at the top of the list, very close to the top of the list of things that will help determine if this team goes anywhere this year or not.
Speaker 3Yeah.
Speaker 4Absolutely, I mean that was the thing that we were saying back in June and July, was Craig, you were banging that drum of like, if King doesn't come back, we said, King or Darvish doesn't come back.
Now we've got Darvish back, and we can't really make a determination about you Darvish, and so now it just becomes well as King going to come back, unsurprisingly, something we've gotten so used to with the Padres.
I remember a time when I heard that Michael King would be returning during the twin series, and then it was, oh, maybe the Baltimore series.
Oh well maybe Colorado.
Oh look at those goalposts, they're just moving right down the field.
So uh, I genuinely don't know.
Like do you guys think Michael King pitches for the Padres this season.
Speaker 5Before the playoffs?
Speaker 3I think he pitches this week?
Me too, Like I feel like this is this is it, Like there's only just so much more you can do before because this is what was it his knee or as hamstring?
Speaker 2Was his knee?
Speaker 3Right?
Speaker 1Yeah, it was just an inflamed knee and they said they you know, in his words, he got through it, it settled down, and now he feels great in his way.
Speaker 3And the dude has just been not pitching for so friggin long that it's really just kind of shit or get off the pot.
And if if he can't pitch in the major leagues, so you're gonna have to shut him down.
Like, I don't think it's something they can keep dragging out.
I don't.
I don't see the utility in it.
If if he's feeling okay.
Speaker 4Well, I think if I'm if I'm Michael King personally, I'm saying, give me back on the fucking mound.
Speaker 5I need to get contract next year.
Speaker 3Yeah, and so yeah, I everybody and everyone is incentivized.
Speaker 4I you know, if anything, I think maybe Michael has more to lose than anyone else, I mean the Padres.
Like, realistically, are the Padres going to resign Michael King?
I'd sure love it if they did, but like.
Speaker 3The odds of doing so go up if he doesn't pitch another pitch this season, Like that's.
Speaker 1Kind of like the technically, he has an option that he could exercise to return to the San Diego Padres next year.
He has a contract for the Padres for next year.
We all said the day that he agreed to his deal that that would never be signed unless he got hurt.
And he's been hurt all season long, since being great in the first you know, month and a half of the season.
Speaker 2So here we are.
Speaker 3He's the best pitcher on the staff.
So just by what playoff baseball is, Yeah, his return is chief among their priorities.
Speaker 1And when you think about a potential playoff rotation, piggybacking off of Rafe's point that'll be reasserted later, how important the division is.
Nick Pavetta's kind of a specific pitcher guys like at Pecko Park.
He's somebody I'm very comfortable starting a playoff game, even a game one.
I think for San Diego.
Speaker 3I think the only place he scares me is Wrigley with the wind doing well.
Speaker 1If the wind's doing what it does more often than not, which is blow in, then.
Speaker 2That is good.
That is good.
If it's blowing out, he's nothing.
Speaker 3It's the fall man.
Speaker 2They squirrel, they do.
Speaker 1And the one time he pardon me, the one time he was there, it was cold.
I remember that it was the first weekend of April, and he really struggled in that game.
But it was the first weekend of April, so you know, we'll see how that all plays out.
But I mean, Rafie is just the difference between a King Paveta Darvish one two three for the Padres going into a three game playoff series, or a Pavetta Darvish cease that can't inspire too much confidence.
Speaker 2I don't think no.
Speaker 4And I mean because again, like those three guys that you just labeled Paveta, you're literally the fate is in the hands.
Speaker 5Of the gods of whether.
Speaker 4Or not you're going to get the picture you want in the picture, you don't.
So that's number one.
Number two.
We've talked about Darvish, We've talked about as erraticism.
We've talked about him not necessarily having full command of his pitches.
Stuff, you know, cement, mixing over the plate, getting put in the seats.
There's that, and then there's Dylan Cease, which Craig you have well documented your feelings about Dylan Cease.
And you know, I have to say today, you know, five innings, one run, maybe the most frustrated I've ever been with that stat line, because he was sixty seven pitches through four innings today and somehow managed to not pitch more than he technically did pitch in the sixth inning, but he did not record an out, So five plus innings pitched.
And he completely abandoned his curveball today, which was something I was really disappointed to see.
Speaker 5He only threw it five times out of one hundred and two pitches.
Speaker 4And he's throwing his fastball slider, he's throwing a sweeper, he's starting a sinker.
The sweeper in sinkers, I mean, they're weak contact pitches.
They're not necessarily swinging miss pitches.
But the curveball's a swing and miss pitch when he throws it when he has the confidence to do so, and unfortunately, you know, doing it only five times, he really became that two pitch pitcher again.
And if not, stuff's getting put into the field and it's cores and you don't know what's gonna happen when the ball comes off the bat.
And so I know that, like he could have been changing his approach because of the elevation, and you know, maybe that curveball is not going to break the same way.
Speaker 5YadA, YadA, YadA.
Speaker 4We'll see when he comes back to Peco Park and pitches against these very same Rockies on Thursday or Friday or whatever it is.
If his pitch arsenal changes at all, that's something that I'm going to be paying a lot of attention to.
But he needs to be throwing the curveball to be successful in the playoffs.
So if it's September seventh and you're not throwing it and you're just going back to your two pitch mix, like, I don't know, man, I don't know.
So I'm I express the same worried as you have, Craig.
Speaker 1All Right, I'm gonna I'm gonna go from a worry to a solution, but I'm going to start by by breaking down a myth.
Dylan C's cannot be a playoff starter for the San Diego Padres.
Speaker 2He can't.
Speaker 1If he's a traditional playoff starter.
The Padres are a massive, massive underdog.
Speaker 2In that game.
Speaker 1His likelihood of getting outside of three innings, I would say, is one in four, maybe somewhere between one and three and one and four, And I think those are also the two numbers that would be as maximum innings pitched in a game, three or four innings pitched if.
Speaker 2He started the game.
Speaker 1However, if you started Adrian morehone, let him pitch two innings, brought in Dylan Cees, and had Dylan Cees go one time through the order, or maybe twelve batters.
If Morohane won a perfect six up, six down, you start Cease with the number seven hitter and give him a chance maybe to get twelve outs in a game.
And now you can turn it over to the remainder of your bullpen and probably just even between Miller and Suarez in a playoff game, get the job done from the seventh to the ninth innings, that's a way that you could utilize Dylan Cees.
You could use an opener for Dylan Sees if you didn't want to waste morahone slash use morohone.
I don't think it's ever a waste in a playoff game to get a zero in the first inning, but you know they used Wandhy in a similar situation previously.
My point is Cease as a traditional starter.
Why ten times in his twenty four starts he's pitched an out in the sixth inning this year, And that's in the regular season, that's with favorable matchups left and right, and that's the best he's been able to do.
Get into a playoff situation where everyone can lock in on him, and his career playoff ra is in double digits, and I think as a traditional starter, there's no chance for Dylan SE's.
But if you use an opener, a reverse hand opener, maybe and then you and you take the This is going to be a theme for me probably in the show.
Take the ego out of it, take the trophy case out of it, take the well, he's our number one and he's got five straight years of two hundred punchies, Because that's pretty good.
Take all that shit out of it and just go with who's performing, what could work, how could this team succeed.
I think that's how Dylan Sees can help this team in the playoffs.
Speaker 4I really like the idea of using an opener with Dylan Sees.
Unfortunately, it won't be Agent morohone because he's the only one of the high leverage arms who's a left handed pitcher.
Speaker 5And when you're.
Speaker 4Facing that's from Tawny Freeman or you're facing Kyle Tucker Michael Bush, like, you're gonna want more hoon to be trotting out in the seventh inning and so and and you know, you can make an argument that this is a way in which the super pen has a deficiency.
They have one lefty, they have one lefty that they really trust in the super pen.
So unless you're opening with Yuki Matsuey or Wandy Peralta, which I don't think the team's going to do in a playoff situation, and you're not going to have that opposite haitded matchup unfortunately that you were getting, you know, with David Morgan opening for was the JP Sars or mister Cortez or Kyle Hart, but it was it's it's none of them are gonna, We're gonna, We're not gonna have any of that.
Speaker 3It would be great if we could just I think I said this like four months ago, but it'd be great if we never say Kyle Hart's name again.
A traditional starter you could use in the playoff is the team's most consistent starting pitcher, and that's Randy Vasquez.
Speaker 1He'd be fourth on my list right now.
Honestly, my personal list would be Paveta, no King, Paveta, Darvish Fasquez, and I would start Vasquez in a Game four of an NLCS over Dylan SE's.
Am I the Dylan Cees hater of the world, guys.
I'm just trying to see the field for what it is.
I think too many decisions have been made in the San Diego Padres based on aura, mystique, history, back of the baseball card, stuff that should bear no relation to forward thinking, strategic analysis and decision making.
Speaker 2And this is one of those areas.
Dylan Cees he's an ace.
No he's not.
Speaker 1No, he's not his second time through the order, he's hot garbage literally up whatever we were today, what was it five to one, or even to eight to one.
I thought to myself, well, here's the thing.
In the fourth and fifth Zeze could immediately give up a three run homer, and all of a sudden the game changes and we're kind of back to what happened on Saturday night.
You can't rely on him, but one time through the order.
That's one place Rafie that the numbers do indicate that this year Dylan ceeses had success.
One time through the order.
He's had success at home, he's better than the road, but one time three has success.
The second time through the order is where he starts to get annihilated game by game.
Speaker 4Well, and that's assuming that he's a two pitch pitcher, if he really is committed to throwing the curveball.
And that's this is the thing that letters to AJ has covered extensively of like how that first time through the order the you know, July and August, when he's had success, he's just fastball slider, fastball slider.
And then second time to the order he'll start throwing the curveball, which is pretty sick to be, like, hey, second time to the order, here's a pitch you haven't seen at all.
And you're basically have a new pitcher all over again.
That's why I was so frustrated and disappointed to see him abandon it today.
And you know again, we'll see if that if that comes back at sea level.
But yeah, I mean that's between Dylan and Reuben Diebla and God.
Speaker 5Like frankly, if they're going to.
Speaker 3Show that who maybe yeah, but uh be that name image.
Speaker 5That's that's how you want to get into heaven.
Cause uh sorry, uh but uh that's it.
Speaker 4That's the only way this works if they're because because because Craik, you're right, they're going to do the traditional back of the baseball card thing.
Dylan Sees is going to be, my guess, the game two starter for the Padres.
Speaker 1Uh night, forget about our season.
Speaker 3Like last year Dylan Sees had a sub to e R a second time through the order and like that's still that was sub five.
Third time this year, third time through the order, his era is over eight, Like he's there's something within Dylan Cees that has not been fixed in twenty twenty five, which will necessitate them being creative with how they use him in the playoffs.
Speaker 1Right, if if Dylan Sees and I probably we'll move on to another topic.
But I just want to put the numbers out there.
I'm not people will.
I guarantee you someone goes, oh, Craig is so emotional, ranting against ranting, raving against Dylan Sees.
I'm telling you the cold, hard facts of the situation.
What you get that's emotional is from the club when they talk about things that aren't what's actually happening.
When they talk about what he could be or what he's been in the past, I'm talking about what he's been this year.
Speaker 2We're deep enough into the year.
Okay.
Speaker 1If he's going to have a renaissance in October where everything changes, wow, that's Cinderella shit.
But the reality is this.
The first time through the order, the OPS against Dylan Cees is five eighty six.
The batting average is two five the on base percentages two sixty seven.
I can work with that in the playoffs every time.
That's terrific.
That's good enough to win in the playoffs.
Second time through the order, the on base percentage goes to three sixty and the OPS to eight fourteen.
The third time through the order, his OPS is eight sixty because he's giving up a five nineteen slugging percentage.
He's given up twenty homers this year.
Eight have come the second time through the order, eight have come the third time through the order, only four have come that first time through the order.
So what I know about Dylan ces is that I can get and we could do it the twenty five to fifty pitches five eighty nine ops through twenty five pitches six fourteen through fifty.
Speaker 2Then it goes to eight fifty and nine oh six.
Speaker 1So I know I've got twenty five to fifty pitches playoff pitches that I can.
Speaker 2Get out of Dylan Sea's and not one more.
Speaker 1Why would I use that to start the game when those fifty pitches, knowing Dylan could be the first two innings, and now I bring them out for the third inning, and I'm rolling out a pitcher with basically an eight sixty OPS against and saying, Okay, I'm going to try and win a playoff game with this no and listen, in a playoff game, in a big game, in a game three, I would absolutely start Adrian Morohan and just use him at the top, especially if it was a Dodgers, a team that has left handed hittors, because those two innings are critical, and then I can get three four if he's good.
Speaker 3They're not as critical as any inning after the fifth, Like when because the first inning you don't know what's going to happen way more so, like your number of outcomes that can happen after the fifth or sixth are so much more limited and you're armed with so much more information.
I'm with Rayphie, like, I don't think they would do it, and I'd feel a sketch about it.
I want our I want our left handed Latin king for when the game is on the line.
And the game's never on the line in the first inning unless Mike Clevenger is starting in a playoff game.
Speaker 2Thank you.
Speaker 1We've lost playoff games the last last two times through literally in the first inning.
Speaker 3Very different scenarios.
Speaker 1Is it.
Speaker 3Time?
Speaker 1But yes, But I'm just saying, if trust value Clevenger or sees.
Speaker 3I hear you, like I get it, but like we're the thing that you guys told me why we can't trade Dylan Cease when I said we should trade Dylan Ce's like literally every week for the first three months of this season, is because we would need his innings, and you know, what he's given that to us.
Like, by and large, dude has one hundred and fifty innings this year.
As crappy as he's been, the vast majority of it, padres have some wins thanks to Dylan sees that they didn't do.
They have to get creative about him in the playoffs, I think so.
I think you're totally right about that.
But I don't know if they have to get crazy.
Speaker 1Okay, I don't think it's crazy, but I had three cups of tea and.
Speaker 2Both of you guys, yeah, now I've got a little whiskey.
So I just I'm a dog with a bone on this.
Speaker 1I think there are some very basic things the padres can do to improve their fortunes, and I feel obligated to point them out and then if they don't do them, they don't do them.
It doesn't mean I'm smarter in their dumber or whatever.
They've got their reasons for what they do.
But this is one that you can see coming.
Speaker 2Like the iceberg.
Speaker 1Okay, it's it's out there and it's coming, and when we run into it, if we just throw him out there and run into the iceberg and we're down five, spit in the third inning.
I am not going to give Mike Shilt a pass for that, nor Aj Preller.
They could have picked a different path, and this is the path, and I'm off bring you the path.
Speaker 2This is the path you can take.
Speaker 1Okay, I need some clarification, raf you wrote this in the chat in the menu, it says Shilt bragged today.
Speaker 3I wrote, that's not Rafe like I said, I just put my notes in there.
Speaker 2So okay, tell me about this crazy.
Speaker 3So Shilt in Uh, it might have been after last night's game, it might have been today, he said.
One thing I will take credit for is that we set a Major League Baseball record for pitches in a game, and I believe the number was two hundred and eleven.
It was in the Mick Abel game versus Minnesota and the Padres they did, they made a picture throw the most amount of pitches, and what we saw Friday night at the lowest point of the season.
I completely agree with you, Rafie.
If we had gone on and talk about it, you wouldn't have heard me be like, this is hyperbole.
We're getting two in our feelings over it.
Thing that was the low point of the season.
It better have been like that.
Better have been the cold, hard bottom of the crevasse because they went out against Kyle Freeland and let him do whatever he wanted.
They let him establish the corners.
They weren't aggressive early on in the count.
They tried to do what they did against Mickabel and the Twins and what they did to the next two Rocky starters, it should be noted, who were very wild and not effective in the zone, but they didn't have any sort of aggression.
They had a very conservative approach against Freeland and it wound up having him it ended.
The result was Freeland went eight innings and gave up two hits because of Padres had no answer for his control on the corners and when he would start off with ano sweeper down the heart of the plate, the players weren't take mode, you know, they weren't being aggressive for the very few meatballs that they got, and that led them to be completely vulnerable to a knuckle curve that was tunneling really well with his very mediocre fastball, and that ended up with them looking as bad as they did and us feeling as bad as we felt.
Speaker 1Friday night, Graf, you probably know the place to look this up before me but I would just call bullshit on this from Mike Shildt and immediately point to where do the Padres rank for the season in terms of the number of pitches they see per inning and the amount that they make other pictures work?
Because yeah, and within that, I'll posit my actual theory, which is building off what you just said, Chris.
The Podreys love to face big stuff or small stuff, low command pitchers.
Yeah, that's where this Padres team feasts is on pitchers who don't have precise command.
But looking to Freeland, looking to Chris Sanchez, looking to Joe Ryan, and obviously these are good pitchers, you know.
Speaker 3And Michaelas, Yes, Michaelas made them look like.
Speaker 1Dogs, absolutely, and Freeland is in the Miles Michaelis camp of bad pitchers.
Speaker 2Uh.
Speaker 1In baseball, if you're precise, this Padres team will play your game at the plate.
They'll swing at your pitch.
They'll put the one pitch in play.
They'll put the pitch in play because they're they've been told don't get down on the count.
Speaker 2You always hear Mark Grant.
Speaker 1Against us, Hey, you might see us go get froggy and swing early because don't want to get behind in the count against a guy like this, well, they're not afraid to get behind in the count against a wild guy because they know the chase pitch is going to be off the plate.
But against the command guys, the Padres fall apart.
Speaker 4Yeah, I just want to point out the Padres on the season are averaging three point eight four pitches per plate appearance.
That is gone, it's ninth lowest in the league.
League average is three point eight to seven.
But the top you have, like the Yankees, the Braves, the Angels, the Dodgers, the Tigers, those are in the three point nine four, three point nine to three range.
The Padres also have by far and away, the fewest strikeouts looking.
They have one hundred and ninety nine strikeouts looking on the season, and they have the third lowest strikeouts swinging so in the league.
So they're not that they're not striking out a lot at all this year, which, like, on its face, that's great, that's really good.
But I also think that that is directly tied to their lack of slug I think it is a conscious decision by the team to take a contact first approach, which we talked about it's last year, but a lot of these teams that have high strikeout rates, they also have high slugging percentages because they are swinging for the fences.
And maybe this can transition a little bit to today.
But I thought this was a fun stat that I was looking at in the box score when I was prepping for the show tonight, which is that today, the day that the Padres won eight to one in Colorado, the team hit one for eleven with runners in scoring position.
And if I had told you that prior to the game that we were going to give be like, great, we lost another game at cors and the team is in free fall, and YadA, YadA, YadA.
But no, the Padres hit four home runs today.
And I know I'm a fucking broken record about this, but like, this is why it matters.
This is why it matters because the Padres have abandoned slug in favor of contact.
But contact also puts you at the clutches of randomness.
And this is what we were just talking about with Dick Bavetta in the wind.
It's just like you want to take randomness out of the game, and you want to control the things that you can because baseball is already random enough and it's stupid and no one should watch and that's why I should buy that mug patters dot com slash merch.
Yes, but uh, anyway, there's a long rant to say, absolutely, Craig, you're right, bullshit.
Uh that they're they're not taking a lot of pitches.
That's that's just not part of their game at all.
Speaker 1Bottom third their bottom third in the league, and taking pitches their bottom third in the league.
Speaker 3And we're getting and seeing pitches.
Shouldn't say necessarily taking because right, yeah, just sure, sure, for this is the pedantic of us.
Speaker 1Right, and that all fits.
And when you mix in lack of power, and you mix in your number one player, your loadstone or what is the sort of thing north Star, I guess Manny Machado having one of the worst months of his career.
This is this is why it added up to an August that's been sence the Dodgers's quite forgettable.
Speaker 3Well, I just want to jump on that real quick, because you mentioned like the last two weeks have been really bad Padre's baseball, and there's been lots of fingers pointed all over the place.
Looseer Rise has heard about heard from us all season long, and today, Manny Machado hit a ball four hundred and fifty feet and you look to have his timing back.
He looked very good.
But in the previous twenty eight games before today, Manny's line had been one eighty three two forty six to sixty six.
It's good for a five to twelve OPS.
Now those numbers sound bad, but for Manny Machado, future Hall of Famer, they rank among the top three worst months of his entire career.
You have to look at his rookie year to find a similar campaign with a lower OPS.
Yes, and then you'll get into the beginning of last year when he was coming back from injury, but that doesn't really count because he had several months to get back on his feet.
But you had twenty seventeen he had one really bad month with the Orioles where his OPS was below five hundred, and then his rookie year where his were the previous two low low water mines like low water water mark, Yeah, the ebbs as far as batting average goes.
With that one to eighty three mark.
Again, you had to look at his rookie year, and then you had twenty sixteen where he had a similar stretch, but that carried over into next year.
That was the last two weeks of the season on a Baltimore team that wasn't going anywhere, and then carrying over to a slow start next year.
And then the only other year it happened, And this is kind of what I wanted to get to, not knowing what was going to happen today.
The only other the time this batting average that low was in twenty nineteen, his first season with the Padres, when Fernando Tatis had gotten hurt and what had started is kind of like this promising, energized campaign kind of fell apart at the end, and Manny kind of did too.
He's still slugged, but his batting average was below one eighty.
However, in the last seven games of that season, Manny Machado hit three sixty four, got on base at a four to forty, clipped and slugged almost seven hundred for an ops of one point one.
And if Manny Machado does that the last seven games of this season, it's gonna do a lot for a team that's way more talented that he is.
You know, a key gear in the machine, but he's not the entire machine.
So I wanted to say this to you know, it's kind of like a you know, we are indeed seeing historically bad Manny Machado.
Yes, but don't bet against the man.
And of course today he comes out, does what he does and kind of ignites the powder keg.
That was an eight run.
Speaker 1Game, absolutely, and the Padres kneed Manny Machado.
And let's hope that it is the start of something I thought more important than the home run, because he hit a home run earlier in the week.
Speaker 2While he was completely.
Speaker 1Terrible earlier, even in the Rocky series, you could see that Manny was not recognizing pitches, that there were certain pitches that he could just not see the spin.
And today he took a full count walk with the bases loaded in a two out situation.
He later drilled a double down the right field line.
And those are the kind of things Manny Machado does when he can see the ball and when he is getting his timing and he is on time.
So hopefully that's happening.
Here's the other good thing that's happening.
Speaker 3I want to say one more thing, because I didn't get in the menu.
Luisa Riyes got bench yesterday.
He didn't start the game, and he came in, excuse me Friday, and he came into the game in a very high leverage at bat in the bottom of the ninth, leading it off, and.
Speaker 2What did he do Boys He draw a walk.
Speaker 3He drew a freakin walk.
And then the very next game, leading off, not leading off any second, he drew another walk.
Like I don't know, like if we were talking about Shilt firing his bullets and benching Arives on a healthy day at the best hitters ballpark in America, Like I don't know, Like I don't know if that was a message received, But it seems pretty coincidental to the point of uh not coincidental that he drew two walks in his first two plate appearances back.
Speaker 1Maybe we'll see there's no choice and something more was revealed to this extent today.
There's no choice for any Padre fan and any member of our Padres hot to discord and everyone who wants to talk about it.
You have no choice other than just to support Luis Raise the rest of the season because he's not going anywhere.
Speaker 2He's not going anywhere at all.
Speaker 1We've been getting second for your bad rays every game the rest of the year.
But Rafie, I think that much like the really big news to me over the last week or so, offensively or recently, Fernando Tatis Junior was starting to lift the ball again and he got to that twenty home run mark, and I'm starting to feel a lot better about the way he's addressing the baseball in terms of his chance to impact a playoff game with power.
Speaker 5Sorry, sorry I was muted.
I've been blowing my nose.
Speaker 4He had a massive home run yesterday.
He then hit a four hundred and nineteen foot flyout to the deepest part of the park at Coursefield yesterday.
It would was a stack cast home run in twenty nine of thirty ballparks.
Speaker 5You can guess which one was.
Speaker 2Yeah, a reverse unicorn.
Speaker 5A reverse unicorn exactly.
Speaker 4So yeah, I think that, like this is just one of those things where the eye test sort of matches what we're seeing on paper as well, that like, he's hitting the ball harder, he's staying on balls, he's polling balls, which is great.
I think that, like, you know, normally it's very cool and sexy when people spray balls the opposite field, but when you have power hitters, you want them to pull the ball in the air.
That is what's going to provide the highest lugging percentage.
So for Fernando that is absolutely key to his success.
And so seeing him getting some of that timing back in Colorado is fantastic and I'll be very curious to see.
You know, we already saw him hit a home run at home on Wednesday.
If it's going to continue this week back at sea.
Speaker 2Level critical stuff for the podrase.
Speaker 1But the bottom line, as Rapheus said literally since March, is that San Diego is a homer's problem and that becomes more magnified.
Speaker 2If you do get to the playoffs.
You need to hit homers to win playoff games.
You just have to.
Speaker 1And as such, we spent a couple of weeks or months or I don't know how long, but really looking at the week point that you know, being logical, looking at the week point of the lineup and seeing Luis a rise, you know, you're a guy that could come out of the lineup so that the Padres could play both Loreano and O'Hearn and Sheets and Merrill in the same lineup.
Otherwise you always had to sit one.
Speaker 2And I thought it.
Speaker 1Was interesting that Friday on his weekly interview with Ben and Woods, Mike Shild was asked this, but in a different manner.
Okay, he was asked it, and Stephen Woods went he did like triple backflips to try and avoid actually, you know, suggesting something to Mike Shild, He's like, I'm not saying you should do this or what, but he just said, like what about Jackson Merrill as a shortstop?
Speaker 2Like what if?
How hard?
Speaker 1I think his literal question was like how hard would it be?
Or like you know, what would you have to do to get?
And Mike in his style, and you know, I'm used to his style and he doesn't like those guys that much.
He's extra salty on those Friday morning interviews.
But he went through a condescending let me ask you some questions thing like, hey, guy, let me ask you a question.
You think defense is important.
I'm not trying to argue with you, just want to share my opinion, share my point of view.
You think defense is important?
Oh yeah, yeah, okay, you do?
Speaker 3Huh?
Speaker 2You do?
So you think defense can win games?
Speaker 1Well yeah, yeah, well you know we think so too, and so we make decisions to help this team win games.
Speaker 2And defense is a way that help win this game.
Speaker 1Okay, cool, And now you're going to take Jackson Merril kid who's and now you're going to throw them in short.
Speaker 2Okay, well fine, we're not.
We're not.
Speaker 1But the point is he really wanted to let you know how much he believes the defense wins games.
And I agree, and we've talked about it because what he did today is something that had been suggested by our patrons.
In fact, I'm trying to remember exactly who it was that suggested it, our favorite fund schron player who's now running a winery that suggested it, you know, a few group therapies back, which was, why don't you slide Croninworth to short, put a rise at second, put O'Hearn at first.
Now you keep Meryl.
Now you can put sheets at d H.
Now you can have you're in higher lineup.
And we said, well, they won't do that because it'll impact the defense too much.
And guess what he did today that he did that, and then Kroniworth made a really nice play that shortstops to believe for him and then winning eight one in the sixth he did what I love because I mean, this is the thing like in Stratt.
I would do these kind of lineups guys all the time.
I'd put somebody out of position.
I'd put my worst defender at third, you know, or whatever.
And then like, because you want to have the offense, you want to get the lead, and then you pull the bad defender and you slide every one of the good defensive spots and now you're a good defensive team.
And so he did.
He put Jose Iglacias in at short because Cronaworth isn't as good as Iglacias.
And then he put kronin Worth at second because obviously Coronerworth's a better second basement than a Rise.
Speaker 2And then he put you put a Rise at first and he took it a horn.
Just wore my head explodes.
I can't give you a because I can't give.
Speaker 1You because because on Shilter, because on hilt Air, because Luise Rise is a preferred.
Speaker 3Member, he's a championship player.
Speaker 2He flies first class on shilty Air.
Speaker 4Do you think on road trips Luisa Rise spanks Mike Showt with his batting title Silver bats.
Speaker 2Like You because Mike asks him to.
Speaker 5Because Mike asked him to.
Speaker 2He cas give me a kiple of them.
Speaker 3Choose a playlist or something we already know.
Speaker 4Luisa Rice sleeps with his bats.
He's deck he he gave interviews when he was at Marl and that he sleeps with his bats and that was part of his charm.
I'm just saying they're already in the bed, like otherwise, why else.
Speaker 5Would he be not why else would he be taking out a hearn.
Speaker 4It's literally the only logical explanation I can think of.
Speaker 2There's nothing.
Speaker 4He was already playing there, Craig, he was already, Oh, Ern was there.
Speaker 5He was there.
He made a nice catch over the railing today.
He did that.
Speaker 3And it's a hierarchy what and whether it be fat fetishes or sheer human chemistry or a shared love of Napa Pino Greege Like for some reason, Louisa Rise and Mike schil Are are hermanos.
They're simpatico and uh, like, it doesn't blow me away.
I was a little more surprised with the like and like I I am, I don't mind jac Its Shortstop all that much.
What I mind is the combination of jac Its Shortstop and Louisa Rise at second pace, Like it really bothers me.
What could happen up the middle with those two and it worked out great today.
It's by far the best offensive lineup they can do.
So you know, we ride with it that that's what it is.
And if the team wanted to be defensive minded, you know, they would have signed or they would have picked up ikf on waivers and like had him basically take Jose Iglesius's job.
But they didn't do that right, So, like, get the runs, score the runs, do what's needed to get the runs.
I am sad I don't get to see Jackson Merrill play shortstop.
Like it's just a selfish thing.
There's no analysis going into it, just that the kid, you know, said he wanted to do it.
And when that dude is playing enthusiastic baseball, he's a force.
And he looked good today.
He was playing enthusiastic baseball today.
He had an opposite field home run that was quite delightful and.
Speaker 1Was not it was good, and he lined the ball hard a couple other times.
Yeah, the Padres need Jackson Merrill to be last year's Jackson Merrill if they want to win the division or do anything in the playoffs.
If he's the two fifty hitting guy that swings and misses as much as he has this year, He's not going to help the Padres very much.
But I just want to say, because I have been hammering this topic just like you have raped, you know, for for a while about lineup construction, that I very quickly came around on this particular theory.
Speaker 2I am fine with.
Speaker 1Them starting this, which I will call the offensive stack lineup the O stack.
I am fine with them starting the O stack every game against a right handed pitcher.
Speaker 3Yeah.
Speaker 1Oh stack rhp, Yeah, oh stack RHP.
I am willing for them to do this every game to try and get the lead, because this team with the lead is entirely different than this team trailing now.
I want to note also that while Jake Cronoworth made a great play today diving catch that got replayed multiple times, what didn't get replayed multiple times was a little pop fly behind second base that Luise A.
Rise had right out of his glass and was in Jesse's name, or in Jesse's word, quite charitably called a single by the you know, corsefield scorer that could have been an error in his first game at second base for Luisa Rise.
So Arise is not going to be a good defender at second and it will cost them at some point along the way.
But that's a gamble in the equation I'm willing to take because it puts Gavin Sheets in the lineup.
And if Gavin Sheets starts the next three weeks, guys, he's going to finish with over twenty home runs.
He's at nineteen after his bomb today, he could get to twenty five and him and O'Hearn and Loreano and to Tea sitting Homers and Machado gets back online.
Merrill gets a little bit back online.
Now that's enough power to win a playoff game.
If all those guys are in and clicking, that's enough.
As much as I love him, Jose Iglesias has not hit to the level.
Speaker 2This year or even close to it.
Speaker 1No, that allows him to be a productive part of the bottom of the order if you put him in the lineup, and obviously Bogarts we hope to get back before the playoffs.
But if you put him in the lineup, you're really decreasing the offense.
So this play increases the offense, gets Sheets and O'Hearn into the lineup at the same time, and we might give up a ground ball a game along the way.
Speaker 3Frankly Craig also with basically league average hit Freddy for Me at the bottom of the order.
That lineup is better than the Padres lineup that went into the playoffs last year as the team everybody thought was the best team going into the playoffs.
Speaker 1Well maybe that's the last thing I'll just say really quickly, Freddy for Mean has to hit, you know, And this is just a quick echo of something we talked about on past non main shows, on postgame shows and group therapies.
But you know, Freddy for Mean started off House of Fire three seventy in his first two weeks, then he went I think it was three for thirty two, and then the last couple of games he's hit better.
And the Padres traded a pretty darn good six year starter potentially in Ryan Bergert and Steven Kolak, a good depth piece in the rotation to get this guy for four years.
They got Austin Nola for four years, and they only wanted to keep him for one and a half because he was so bad.
And if that happens again with Freddy for Me and the Podreys are in a world of hurt.
They need Freddy for me to be good and to be a starting catcher in the big leagues.
When he hits like he did the last couple of days, he is.
When he hit like the way he did the last three weeks.
Speaker 2He's not.
Speaker 1And when you combine it with the problems the Patterys have had in the starting rotation, it's I just don't want to every day relitigate this trade in our discord for the next five years, like Nola got litigated for like three years running of every day bringing up the trade.
But this could be one of the big losses in terms of a j preller unless for me just is what they think he is, and so he's one of these guys like I just gotta cross my fingers and count on him.
Speaker 3Every player is gonna have peaks and valleys, Babe.
The dude is like a career average ninety four ops plus hitter, like just slightly below average.
I think you take that at catcher and like, like, my take on the trade is if Freddie Forman's name is Adley Retchman, how do you feel about it?
Speaker 2Wow?
A lot better, a lot better.
Speaker 3But Adley Rutchman number one is worse this year and he's not even going to not even play in this year.
And number two like a twenty percent better hitter.
And you know, the defensive metrics favor for me in a little bit, but you know that's for catchers, and like that's because for me it's a frame god.
But like, I just want to point out how rare, freaking major league caliber starting catchers are with a little bit of control.
And yes, Ryan Burt is playing quite well, and you can't even say it's because he's playing at Coffin because a lot of his starts have been on the road with the Royals.
But we kind of knew he was gonna be a playable guy and we really wish we had a playable guy a few times in the past month.
But uh, I understand the trade, and I think that if we knew a little bit more about Freddy, for me and as a fan base, it would feel different.
Like this is a dude who put up three war last year, you know, playing one hundred and eleven games with not even four hundred played appearances.
He's gonna put up over to this year.
Like, dude is a starting caliber major league catcher, They're not around and especially if you don't want to pay them in the offseason, like the Padres definitely do not.
Speaker 1Is that three of the good war, Chris or three of the it's a good one?
Speaker 2Okay, that's what I thought the base you were you were boys.
Speaker 1Yeah.
Speaker 4Meanwhile, a statue is currently being erected in El Paso of Louis Campus Ono.
Speaker 3So seriously runs or twenty seven.
Speaker 4The most ever in Chihuahua affiliate history.
Speaker 5So yeah.
Speaker 4I mean, if you want to point to anything as to why the Padres needed to make that trade in the first place, it's because they have completely botched in every single way possible the Louise Campusato experiment, which, by the way, in fact, I hope someone teaching him to play first base because that's the way you can use him next year Rise and O'Hearn are gone.
Speaker 5You just want to put that out there in the.
Speaker 3University rates platoon.
Speaker 1Baby, if Pat Murphy is the manager of the Padres, how many of bats does Louise Campusano have this year?
Speaker 2And how many more wins do the Padres have.
Speaker 4At least a couple, which right now is the division lead.
Think about all those times they were playing Maldonado over Campusano yes, like all those times.
I mean, what did malden didn't Aldonado end up with a negative win?
Like, yes, it might have been really close zero point seven eight.
Speaker 1You know, I think there's at least a dozen, if not eighteen, teams where Louis Campusano would have been the everyday starter in the big leagues.
Speaker 3Let me rephrase that, like, how many losses more do the Padres have if Maltonato plays catcher the last month?
Speaker 2Like I don't know, I don't know for me one three for thirty two.
Speaker 1I want to contradict myself right as I asked that question, because every team in Big League Baseball had a chance to trade for Luis Campusano with the deadline.
Speaker 2He didn't move.
Speaker 1No, So if I really think the twelve teams would have him as their starter, wouldn't one of those twelve teams have traded for him.
Chris Reid just said, a young, controllable catcher is one of the most important things.
We've got one, and he literally never plays.
Speaker 3He's not a catcher.
Speaker 4He's not just not a catcher, but he is a short side DH platoon, that's for sure.
Speaker 5And instead the team's coming with a glace.
Speaker 3Like she'll dislikes him so much he wouldn't even give him those at bats.
That's got to remember.
Sure, guys, what did he get like twenty five plate appearances and no hits?
Speaker 4Truth, Yeah, no, it's still bad.
He was bad in those plate appearances.
But like you got, you have.
He's been in the organization for almost a decade.
Yes, you know what I mean.
And so you're gonna say those twenty five plate appearances define the future of Luis Campasado, Like, come on, like that's insane.
Speaker 2All right, let's move to this.
As as said, the Dodgers are one game ahead.
Speaker 1Now we have to note wild tie breakers don't turn up till the last day of the year.
The Padres have to make two positive motions on the game board in order to actually go ahead of la uh that being even with their token on the board doesn't matter.
So as such, and I was texting my dad about this earlier today, but I just think it's really fast.
Like over the last two weeks, the Padres played their worst ball of the year, while the Dodgers, also in the exact same frame, played their worst ball of the year.
And they've been pretty inconsistent a few times and in that time, both San Francisco and Arizona separately lit off a bottle rocket and took off up the standings and each put up an eight and two in a time when the Dodgers and Padres put up a three and seven.
And before the Padres won on Saturday, the Giants had gotten into four games behind them four games.
And the way the Padres were spiraling and the Giants were surging, you were like, Okay, by Wednesday, the Giants could catch the Padres and the standings, but they did not.
Speaker 2That Patters have won a couple of games.
Speaker 1So now we go down the stretch, and I think this is fascinating, guys, and it's so positive for San Diego.
With all the bad things that have happened with the Padres form, with the way that everything we've talked about, you know, all the issues, their setup is close to golden.
Speaker 2Because after the next three days.
Speaker 1Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, it's important not to fall apart because the Dodgers will get Colorado at home, while the Padres take on a flailing Cincinnati Reds team.
Speaker 2But the Reds are playing for their life.
Andrew Abbot's gonna pitch.
Speaker 1He's shut down the Padres every single time he's faced them in his career.
The Padres have struggled with Cincinnati in the past.
They can't afford to turn this one game deficit into like four, right, they can't afford to turn it into three or four.
But after that, the craziest thing happens.
The Dodgers play the Giants and the Phillies and the Giants ten games in a row.
Giants, Phillies, Giants, And when you think about it, the setup almost guarantees.
Speaker 2The Podres a playoff spot.
Speaker 1Why do I say that, Because the Giants are the team that's trying to catch the Podres.
Now the Arizona's in the mix too, we can get to them in a second.
But the Giants are the team that's going to catch the Padres.
How can they do that?
They have to stay red hot.
How do they stay red hot?
They have to beat the Dodgers.
If the Giants were red hot, they'd have to beat the Dodgers five or six times in seven games.
Well, the Padres can't lose ground to the Dodgers if the Dodgers keep losing.
Speaker 2All the time to the Giants.
So really, all San Diego has to do is read.
Speaker 1Water, and they've got four games at home against Colorado just to make the playoffs, because the Giants would have to pass both of us, and the only way they can do that is to beat the hell out of LA.
And if they beat the hell out of La, then LA's in position for us to pass them, never mind San Francisco.
The only way this doesn't work is if San Francisco is terrible and Arizona wins every game the.
Speaker 2Rest of the year.
Speaker 1And this is a team that traded away their first baseman, their third basemen.
They have nobody in relief.
You know, they went on a bottle rocket, just like the Giants went on a bottle rocket.
But I don't think either team has the staying power.
But honestly, I just look at those seven games guys, La San Francisco as kind of everything for the division race.
Speaker 3Real quick, before I address your fantastic point speaking of bottle rocket, sad news, fantastic downtown establishment will no longer be in business after the season, So head on down there and support a really great institution that if I lived in the city, I would have been at a whole bunch more.
They did really great work really thought it was a fantastic place, and I want to give them a shout out because they've been really good to us and you know, just a fantastic vibe.
Speaker 1Yeah, Eli's incredible, and now please go ahead and respond to the point he said you wanted to respond to.
Speaker 3The point's excellent.
But it goes back to the Padreys have to take care of business, like even if that business is being you know what they've been for a long time this year, which is basically a five hundred team, but they're better than that.
So if they played their abilities with schedule in front of them, like, it's looking really really good and like a collapse seems very very improbable.
Speaker 4Yeah, I'm not worried about the premise of the pod is making the playoffs.
They're going to make the playoffs, like that's like it's gonna happen, Like we're ninety eight percent playoff odds right now.
So but what I think is more intriguing is, yes, you're rooting for the Giants, for the to take down the Dodgers with the Phillies.
The Phillies, you know, beating the Dodgers also probably guarantees that you're never going to catch them for a buye, and that's probably a trade off that you're willing to make if it's securis to the division, because the buye is a long shot regardless.
Anyway, I'd have to see where the Padres are at in terms of their buy winning percentage.
They have a three and a half percent chance according to fangrafts, to clinch a bye right now.
So I think you punt those three and a half or so, you punt those three and a half to try and soak the ball to division odds that you can get.
Speaker 3But you don't have to.
We can have it all refee.
Speaker 1Well now, sure, Yeah, the Phillies are at plus twenty three right now.
The Padres are with the win today at plus thirteen.
So to square that off, first off, you need Philly to lose some games along the way, but.
Speaker 2At least some.
Speaker 1But secondly, you've got four against Colorado, three against the White Sox.
If you won all seven of those games, if you took a seven out of seven of those games, you go from thirteen over to twenty over.
And that's without the other games in the equation yet.
But I'm just saying, if you can take all seven of those games.
Specifically, that's the helium you need to get up into that plus twenty category where you can start to discuss the Cubs and the Phillies.
Losing Friday really really really.
Speaker 2Sucked, Yellen.
Speaker 1Losing to the Orioles three times as opposed to just losing twice or once, just like losing twice to the Twins, Like, those games really sucked in terms of our trajectory.
But even with that, what matters is playing well so that you take care of these games.
Because if you take care of these games, the path is still I believe built for you to be two games better than LA down the stretch.
Speaker 5I completely agree.
Speaker 4I bet I've also been surprised by this team before, so yeah, you know exactly.
Speaker 3All right, Let's we talked about how the last American League team the last time we talked is the White Sox, and we went, oh, yeah, that's good.
White Sox have won a whole buttload of games recently, Like of course, the White Sox are the Barts and Baltimore Orioles all.
Speaker 1The time, and the Padres are eighteen and twenty seven against the American League, so US losing to the White Sox would not surprise me, but it would really.
Speaker 2Really make your match.
Speaker 3It's not those games yet.
Speaker 2Let's wrap up with just a little bit of bullpen talk.
Speaker 1I thought, this losing streak again, well, it's something we've talked about a lot on the other shows.
We haven't talked to the main feed.
But one of the things that came into play as the padres scuffled was like, if they actually blow this, Eric Krupner will probably fire aj Preller.
You know, it seems like it would very much be an in play move given the dynamics of the franchise if they had a twice in a generation collapse and.
Speaker 2Missed the playoffs.
Speaker 1But one of the reasons that that came into focus for me was, you see what happens to a super bullpen team when the starting pitchers can never get anybody out and the offense doesn't score.
Mason Miller pitches like two innings in two weeks is what happens, and you traded your quote unquote future superstar shortstop for two winnings.
Yeah, two winnings over two weeks.
It's really hard to win with a super bullpen when you're losing all the time.
Now, the last couple of days, the Padres got offense and in the game that mattered.
We saw him go to Mason Miller for a two inning up and down.
We saw him get ready to warm up Robert Swarez in the eighth inning when Miller was on the mound, like he's gonna ride those big relievers shiltwell down the stretch.
But guys, as we mentioned right at the top of the show, since our last main show, Jason Adam tore his squad.
He's out for the year and it'll be out till May or June of next year.
And obviously that's a giant blow.
Five finger death, punched down to four horsemen again.
And then Jeremiah Strata has had some real issues that have led him to become, I don't know, a pretty unreliable horseman at this point, a shaky horse.
Speaker 4Yeah, so we were talking a little bit about this, I think on the show last night, Craig of you know, his pitch ushites has changed so that he's throwing his fastball more than ever.
He's sort of abandoning the chitter as it's called, and so you know, you would think, okay, fastball, that's chemiahs.
Trota's signature.
Pitch that sort of like rising, heavily induced vertical break fastball that he has, but it hasn't been successful for him.
And actually this month so far, opponents are hitting above a four to seventy expected wOBA on his fastball, which you know, it's twenty seven pitches.
It's not a huge sample size, but you know, when you're breaking things down by month and it's the seventh of the month, it's going to be like that.
The point is bad.
Point is bad, point is it hasn't been good.
And I was curious if I could try and find anything as to why things have been going so poorly for him, And it turns out one of the things that came up is that this month in September, we're seeing a pretty steadied separation between the arm angle on his fastball and on his secondary pitches, and something that was relatively stable for May, June, July when he was having his greatest success, where you know, he only had about five degrees of separation.
Speaker 5In the arm angle.
Speaker 4In August that went up to about ten degrees, and right now in September so far against small sample size, but his arm angle on his fastball is seventy one degrees and on his splitter and slider it's down at sixty sixty one degrees, so he's got you know, a dozen degrees of difference in his arm angle.
And I'm wondering, for me personally, if I'm the Dodgers, you know, that's something that I I assume that they're absolutely.
Speaker 5Picking up on.
Speaker 3If every.
Speaker 4And so I mean, if me, Joe Schmoe with a cold here niece Hollywood is uh able to see that.
I know that the certainly other teams are seeing that, and I know we've been able us on it too, So I'm hoping this is something that uh that they'll be able to uh to remedy going forward.
But yeah, it's just you know, it's a game of adjustments, as we talked about, and sometimes it I mean, I hate to bring this up because we bringing up a lot, but it really is like a golf swing.
You know, you start, you start making the adjustment, then you over correct and then you have to make corrections for your over corrections, and you just do it over and over and over again.
And that's the same thing with baseball.
You're just like making adjustments and making adjustments, and every team's trying to find every marginal advantage they can get over you.
So I'm sure they're all over it.
But something to watch going forward.
Speaker 1Yeah, great analysis, there it is, you know, cold hard facts.
Again, the arm angle has changed.
There's a separation an arm angle that leads to being able to cipher it.
And we know it, right, We know every team has the iPads.
Heck, today the Yankees won a game.
Did you guys see that?
Speaker 3I did the judge at the second with that.
Speaker 1Yeah, because they had pregame spotted that Max Schuzer's change up grip was visible from either first or second base, and so they could absolutely spot every changeup and judge was flapping his arms giving signals to Ben Rice, and Ben Rice wound up hitting a three run homer and it wound up being the difference in the game.
So this stuff is happening all the time.
We've seen the Padres get caught on it a couple three times this year, and for Jeremiah Strata especially, that's absolutely something worth keeping an eye on.
So you know, put a pin in that and let's see what happens.
All right, guys, let's wrap it up.
Padres have again the re quick, Yeah, real.
Speaker 3Quick, like we were really high on the team going into the playoffs last year because the bullpen.
It's a lot of the same thing this year.
David Morgan has proven that he can take annings if Estrada falls off.
And above all us, Padres fans need to remember to keep Calm and more humm because we have a dynamic left hander who's the best reliever in Major League Baseball this year.
And we now have a shirt commemorating the fact.
You can find it at Padre's hot time dot com backslash merch there it is for our YouTube audience.
Speaker 1You know, when we put out the mug, it seemed like the season was about to collapse.
Speaker 3No, that we were doing great when we put out the mug.
Speaker 2Jackson Merrill got off to a hot star this year.
Speaker 3Game.
Speaker 2What happened?
Rave?
What are you wearing there?
Speaker 3Kid?
Speaker 2What do you got?
Speaker 5I don't know what you talking about?
Speaker 2Yeah, and neither do I got.
Speaker 3Here.
Speaker 1Craig doesn't officially recognize this shirt, and I believe as long as none of you buy it.
Speaker 2It should be okay.
Speaker 3It's been bought and they are two and one since the release of Keep Calm and More.
Speaker 2Home was great today double plays the official.
Speaker 3Act of aggression by the Rogue Nation.
Speaker 1Chris read, oh my goodness, Oh my goodness.
We'll check it out at your own peril.
But don't blame us.
Speaker 3It's apparel.
It puts the peril in apparel.
Speaker 5That's great.
Speaker 1Podrey's Hot Tub putting the peril in apparel since twenty twenty three.
Speaker 2On that note, we're done.
Oh my gosh.
Speaker 1Hopefully a lot of postgame shows this week, which would mean a lot of wins.
Speaker 3Uh.
Speaker 1Come find them and listen to them and be a part of them with us.
Go to patreon dot com, slash padres hot Tub.
Lastly, if you're watching us on YouTube and you've gotten to the end of this show, thank you so much.
Please hit that subscribe button, give us that thumbs up, that click that like button, hit the bill so you're being notified for every single one of our shows.
Speaker 2If you're listening to.
Speaker 1Our podcast and you got to the end of it, and you can leave a five star review, even better, a kind little written review, whether it's an Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Play wherever, we really appreciate it your support, whether it is passive in a way like that, or whether it's active as a patron at patreon dot com.
Slash Padre is what fuels this community funded podcast for Chris read Rafie Canter both get well soon, Guys get under the pilace.
Speaker 2I'm the healthy one, Craig.
Speaker 3For Chris and Ray.
Speaker 2Yeah, and I'm not going no no chance for Chris and Rafee.
I'm Craig.
Go podreis the
Speaker 3Dog, thus s
