Navigated to ETFs Win Triple Crown in 2025 - Transcript

ETFs Win Triple Crown in 2025

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1

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Welcome Trillions.

I'm Joel Webber and I'm Eric.

So here we are in December, and this year, if you think about ETFs, we'll go down in the record books for the for pretty significant reason.

Speaker 2

Yeah, that reason to say the least.

So there's three main records, write or metro that ETFs we track all year, launches, flows, and volume.

Right, those are like we call it the triple crown.

Normally, in a good year you get flows and launches are up, right, everybody's happy, but volume isn't high because volume tends to go up and people are nervous are tweaking their portfolio.

Right, So in twenty twenty two, when the market was down, volume was a record.

So the last two years it hasn't gotten to that point.

But this year the volume broke the twenty twenty two record, even though it was mostly a good year.

The flows also in record territory, and the launches, man, they've blown away.

They might even get close to doubling the old record.

So we have the real rare triple crown and each of these record it's going to get broken by double digit percentages.

So this is like you know, every year, I'm like this, this has to be as good as it gets, Like this is ETFs in their prime, but this has to be it.

Joe, I'm saying it right now, like I feel like they can't do this again.

So it's I think it's good to just look at what happened, what's inside of those numbers, and what might happen next year.

Speaker 1

Now you've a questioned, have we ever had a triple crown before?

Speaker 2

Yes, don't laugh twenty twenty one.

I know that sounds like it was only four years ago, but it's rare.

It's only happened a few times in thirty years.

The reason twenty twenty one did it is because you didn't have that twenty twenty two record of volume, so volume was a little easier to get it get over.

And the other thing is twenty twenty one, if you remember, was an awesome year for stocks, right, that was like the last awesome year where I think stocks were up like twenty five percent or something.

Everything was going right in twenty twenty one until the Fed raised rates in twenty twenty two.

That's why I do think this year, after the tariff tantrum came and went, it has some twenty twenty one vibes.

Speaker 1

So joining us to talk about the Triple Crown Todd Son, He's a senior ETF fund and technical strategist with Stratigis Securities.

And Katie Greifeld, processor reporter with Bloomberg News as well as the co host of Money Stuff and I'll so like a TV.

Speaker 3

Phenomen the close etf IQ all of it.

Speaker 1

This time on Trillions Triple Crown.

Todd, Katie, welcome back to Trillions.

Speaker 4

This is my super Bowl.

I appreciate being here.

Speaker 1

Super Bowl Triple Crown.

We got a lot going on.

Speaker 3

I am thrilled for the opportunity, though I will say I thought we were going to be talking about horses, so well, a little bit.

Speaker 1

Of a I've getten the perfect segue.

Well, hold on, can we start every every triple crown has a horse's name, right, Like twenty twenty one would should have had a horse's name.

If twenty twenty five had a horse, what would you name it?

Speaker 3

Oh?

My god, Joel, I need like seven seconds.

Speaker 2

Of gena di Gen.

The Vanguardians are always there, but this year the Digen's really showed up.

Speaker 1

I mean Degen, the horse.

Speaker 4

I think Degen is perfect.

Speaker 1

Hey, all right, By the.

Speaker 2

Way, speaking of horses, can we just take one quick little personal note here and talk about Katie's neck tattoo?

Oh my god, So she got a neck tattoo.

Can you tell us the story behind this?

Because I am intrigued?

Just really, I know horses are involved.

Speaker 3

Yeah, really quick.

I had a pony named Batman from my parents.

Bought him when I was eleven, which is crazy.

And he passed away this past May, the day before my thirty second birthday.

So that was a long term relationship.

That horse was like a brother.

So I always knew I was going to get the bat signal once he left this earth.

Speaker 1

But and you actually got a neck tattoo.

Speaker 3

I did, but it's hidden.

You'll never see it on TV.

You'll only hear about it on this podcast and maybe money stuff and maybe on my Twitter.

Speaker 2

Where's your tattoo?

Speaker 1

I'm in free?

Okay?

So this was the DJ far.

Speaker 2

This was far I could I could see midlife crisis creeping up sometimes since.

Speaker 1

Yeah, where's gonna like skip that one?

Okay?

So let's start with launches.

How significant you said double digits for everything?

Like how how many launches were there so far?

Obviously there could be more between it on the end of the year.

Speaker 2

We're around nine hundred and thirty launches this year with four weeks to go.

Now, last year the record was I think seven hundred and ten seven to twenty, but the record before that was like five hundred and fifty, So we're probably gonna double the five fifty record, which was only two years ago.

Whether we get to the reason we could get there's an outside shot.

There's a bunch of three x and five xctfs that were filed, like I'm talking like four hundred of them, and they do come due maybe in December.

I don't think the SEC is gonna allow them, but if they did, we're talking like it could be a couple hundred five X.

Yeah, I know that they're gonna they love to push the envelope in this industry.

They feel like they have a workaround where they can use swaps plus options to kind of like get around this sort of because you're not allowed to have three xs in a ETF.

I think the SEC is not going to allow any of that.

We'll see, but if if they did, that could be like dozens and dozens, if not one hundred, in short order because they're all in this like major competition to get out because none of them.

You got to be first to market in the leverage area to have like the most of the assets.

The other thing is the ETF share class, although that's probably going to get pushed more into twenty twenty six.

Even DFA, who I think will be first, is probably not going to launch this year.

So we're looking at probably anywhere between one thousand and like eleven fifty I would say, when all the dust settles.

So that's probably what a sixty seventy percent increase over last year's record.

Speaker 1

Todd How successful will those launches be, I.

Speaker 4

Think it depends on what you're looking at.

Going back to DIGEN, leverage was a huge part of this year.

Right There's been one out of every four maybe a third of launches have been involved leverage, right, and part of this is a single stock leverage space.

So this year you've had over two hundred of those involving single stock leverage.

And I think the interesting part is you're just we're just throwing stuff at the wall.

You started with blue chip companies Tesla and Video few years ago, and now we're just going for anything sub ten billion that might catch fire.

So back to your question how successful they are, A lot of them are at risk of closure if the actual equing market does decline like a twenty twenty two.

I think a lot of them are gonna close.

But they have fully really contributed to that, to that launches aspect, and Eric mentioned the three x five x potential.

Man, this thing's not slowing down.

Speaker 2

And these these two x stockyt has charge one hundred basis points, so all you need is like one hit to be set for life.

And so it's almost like a lottery system for the issuers because they just get one hit, they're good.

And what I found interesting is I get Tesla and Navidio two X being big hits.

Okay, fine, but there's stuff that gets put out that I've never heard of the stock droll.

I'm like, I have to like google it, and I'm like, it's some random quantum stock that is like a small cap, and all of a sudden, I look up the things trading like twenty thirty million a day.

It's got one hundred million, and so you even got mid range hits.

I wouldn't call it a blockbuster, but there's a lot of appetite, and so the industry is feeding the digens because the digens are hungry.

Speaker 3

I will say, I mean to Todd's point, we'll see if this turns into closures.

It's also going to be interesting if we do get into the really highly leveraged stuff three times five times, whether or not those funds will eventually be closed or whether they're going to implode in some way, because I think that was one of the more interesting tales of the past couple months that you had that European listed three times AMD product.

There was a single day where AMD announced some partnership.

I think it was with open Ai.

It feels like everything is with open Ai.

Speaker 1

That's the circular financing.

Speaker 2

It's very circular.

Speaker 3

Yeah, but it was an inverse AMD fund right, and it AMD surge double digits and this fund had to close, so that's certainly going to be fun to watch.

The other thing I would add to this conversation is, you know, there's a lot of these single stock funds that are launching.

That probably explains the high number of new funds coming to market.

There's also a lot of new issuers who are coming to market as well, who are behind these funds.

I know there's a Bloomberg Intelligence stat that I think there's sixty new ETF firms that have entered the industry over the past two years, which is also pretty stunning.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and now there's I think there's three hundred total firms and six hundred brands.

One quick thing on the on the leverage Ethnosius to this study on my team that found that if they put the three X and forget forget five x, just three x.

If they do all these stocks and three x, there is going to be an implosion like every other week, because a lot of them go up thirty three percent or down thirty three percent pretty regularly.

What's also interesting about the negative three x AMD in Europe is almost all of these leverage ETFs are launching are long like It's almost like a nine to one or ten to one long to short.

However, in that little pullback we had like two or three weeks ago, everybody freaked out about it was like four percent from all time highs, and people are ready to like, you know it, call it the years over.

They saw some launches of inverse of these quantum because people are like, oh wait, we forgot things can go down.

So some of these launches, they're probably gonna put the inverse out so you can bet the other way.

Now there's inverse and long.

I think that does increase the likelihood of a couple of terminations.

However, I Ehan and I talk about this all the time.

We're like, we don't think the degends care.

You know that scene in Mad Max Fury Road.

They're just like cruising along and like one of the cars just wipes out, and nobody they just look behind them and they just keep going like nobody really cares.

They just keep driving.

That to me is what I think this will feel like.

If we have an implosion, like if the Granite Chair is something has to close, they'll just go, oh, that's a shame, and they'll just keep degending as we go forward.

Speaker 4

It's a big portion of the numbers.

Speaker 2

The media will be like, oh my god, you know, implosion, I get, but I don't think the users care.

They're just like whatever, onto the next one.

Classic media, Well, come on, termination, implosions pretty good.

Yeah, I know all these.

Speaker 3

Fun words, we don't usually get to use them.

Speaker 1

By the way, just to bring it back to ponies, Yeah, to be a triple Crown you gotta to be a triple crown winner.

You gotta win a the Kentucky Derby, be the Preakness, and see the Belmont, which is launches.

Is that the Derby?

Speaker 2

To me, the Kentucky Derby would be flows.

That's the most important because that's that is net new cash coming in.

That's that's votes.

Speaker 1

Okay, so we've messed up our order already, but let's go ahead.

Let's start talking about flows.

Speaker 2

The flows this year droll one point two four trillion with a T and there're still a month ago and podcast about this.

I think they'll see sixty billion in December.

That's about the monthly haul lately, and so I think we're gonna end it one point three trillion.

Now, that'll be two hundred billion over the record.

The record last year is one point one trillion, and again that was that was the record, Like it's just record after record.

When we look at that number, it's enormous.

If I take you over to mutual funds collectively, I think they're around negative seven hundred billion in outflows.

So there's like more money going to ETFs than leaving mutual funds.

All the equity side is worse.

And if we look at the number of ETFs that are taken in flows, we are at three thousand, three hundred and seventy nine of four thousand, seven hundred and sixty nine.

So that's I mean, the getting is good.

I mean, everybody's getting bites.

If you're in that, if you're in that one thousand, that's not you should probably just pack it up.

I mean, because if you can't catch fish in this environment, like you are using the wrong bait, you're a bad fisherman.

Speaker 1

You gotta go what jumps out to you in that category, just the flows.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean, first of all, vou one hundred and twenty four billion, it has a real shot to get to one forty one fifty that's also a record so for a single year, and then IVV is right behind it.

I would say if anything was kind of shocking this year would be the cash like ETFs did better ask GOV the treasuries and gold GLD at nineteen billion, that old dog, there's cheaper gold ETFs.

So for that old warhorse, to you know, I'm sticking with the horse teams.

Speaker 3

I love this.

Speaker 2

Yeah that for that to finish in eighth place is pretty is pretty compelling this year.

But to me, the flows were summarized this year as Okay, i am not going to try to time the market, so I'm going to buy equities and I'm not going to let anything scare me.

Even during the tariff tantrum, the investors were not scared.

They're like, I'm buying equities.

However, they did want to get some protection on the side, so they bought gold and treasuries, So we saw some safety dance going on with those plus the equities, which for ETFs is good because that means just they're buying everything pretty.

Speaker 4

Much beta with the side of beltunas there we go.

Speaker 2

Well, no, that would be like two x crypto, which is also what was going on.

Speaker 4

The One of the area that does stand out in terms of inflows is a revival and thematic funds too, right, nuclear power generation, I guess ai, if you want to call it that without data centers, data, yeah, I guess data centers too, without without really a massive participation from from the ARC Funds.

Speaker 3

Right.

Speaker 4

I think back to twenty twenty one, the prior record that was led by thematic funds.

ARC did big business then, and now you've owned it, owned the air, Yeah, they were.

They were the thematic player.

Now that's really spread out across.

So Thematic Funds are back, I think as a compliment to the voo the ivvs of the world too.

So that's pretty interesting to me.

And then on the names that haven't participated two areas.

Maybe this is a twenty twenty six story small caps, right, people gave up on small caps.

Speaker 2

Let's unpack that.

Speaker 1

Hold on what's the other one?

Speaker 4

Low volatility?

Speaker 1

Okay, oh, okay factor.

Speaker 2

I don't even know what to attack first, small caps.

I'm gonna tell I'm gonna give you the counter.

Yeah, these mag seven stocks and others.

Anytime a company is worth anything, now it just gets bought.

It's like the Lakers taking all the good players before they even go to college, you know what I mean?

So small caps used to be a prospect area of like good companies that just iPod and like they're rising stars.

Well they wait later to IPO until they're large caps.

They skip that area, and if they're worth anything, they get bought by these big companies who the mag seven has acquired almost nine hundred different companies.

So isn't small caps really just a dumping ground now instead of like a farm system.

Speaker 4

They have a structural problem, right, these companies, as you said, they either get acquired or once they IPO they're already a large cap.

It's interesting though, they've had a good run here last eight months, probably because of the quantum stuff and the Meme esque type funds which are basically the top of the Russell two thousands, So maybe the tune is changing.

Speaker 1

Do midcaps even exist anymore?

I just look in most small caps.

Speaker 3

Yeah, they definitely do.

Though I hear so many beautiful bowl cases built around small caps and also mid caps, and I mean, to Eric's point, it seems like there's been so many false dons.

The supply problem though, that you guys are talking about is really interesting that you don't have these smaller companies coming to market, and it feels like tech companies are the last true conglomerates in terms of just buying everything up that looks promising.

Speaker 2

If you aren't going to enforce antitrust laws, then there's a secular change going on.

Because I looked, you know, GE was the last mega company to like run the S and P five hundred, Like back in the two thousands, Ge was like the biggest thought member the.

Speaker 4

Jack Welsh It was fifty percent of the industrial sector.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean it was.

It was the Mag seven of its day, right.

It acquired seventy companies, which is a lot.

Google has acquired two fifty, Microsoft two fifty, like these are another level and some of the companies that are acquired are would be top fifty names otherwise.

So I think until they break up these companies, That's why I'm like, if you don't own the Mag seven, it's almost like you don't own small caps too in a way, if you think about it from a certain point of view.

That's why this whole idea of like cfaing the market, I just think it's bad news.

You got to think a little more like a degeneral momentum trader and just ride it because it's not the same as it was I don't And I know that's like famous last words.

Things do revert, but especially.

Speaker 3

If we're comparing this to twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two, we all remember was a very dark year.

Speaker 2

However, in twenty twenty two the FED raise rates and like that that was like crack.

That was like the cop showing up at the party.

It's over right, take away the punch bowl.

Speaker 3

Now we're all drinking age.

Speaker 2

Is gonna it's gonna nominate some Yes, man, we could have negative rates this time next year.

I mean remember that they might.

They might give you money.

So it's a it's not twenty twenty two next year.

Unless there's some swan we're not envisioning.

Speaker 1

We'll see though.

Yeah, do you want to take a flamethrower to the lowvall category?

Yeah?

Speaker 2

So Athanasios wrote this great note that buffer ETFs killed the LOWVALL star.

Speaker 4

I agree with that totally.

Okay, So they have a proliferation of other options problem and you just haven't needed them either.

Right outside of April, there's been no reason to own low voll defensive type strategies.

Speaker 2

I mean, I just think buffers are more guaranteed.

It's not guessing.

It's like you know when you do that machine where you get the football helmet or the piece of candy from the from the quarter machine.

Remember back in the day, You're like, I don't know what I'm gonna get.

Yeah, that's more like lowvall.

It'll probably go down somewhat less.

Whereas the buffers they lock in your performance.

And I think if you're older with a lot of money on the line, you'd rather have that guarantee than just like wing it with lowvall.

Speaker 3

A defined outcome if you will exactly.

Speaker 4

And keep in mind you get three and a half to four percent on treasury bills ETFs.

Right, why am I going to own a low VOLLEYTF that I'm yielding less and I'm also taking equity risk.

Speaker 2

They're in a bad spot.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I just think it's interesting that they them and small kins have just entirely left, you know, left for dead.

Speaker 2

Well when you're in those are the reasons, though, I mean there are good reasons.

They're not market reasons.

They're more structural in it in a way.

Speaker 4

Right, I'd like to.

Speaker 1

Bring it back to ponies again, Yeah, thank you, which is if you've won the derby and you've won the Preakness.

What is the Belmont volume?

So let's talk about.

Speaker 2

Yeah, ETFs are going to trade.

ETFs are going to trade in the neighborhood of sixty trillion dollars worth of shares this year.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 2

Right now they're at fifty three point five.

The old record was in twenty twenty two, right when hell was breaking loose, at forty seven trillion, so third more.

Yeah, and every category is up, like fixed income, equity, come, I mean, everything is way higher than it was.

So it's not just like one thing.

I will say the degend factor.

All those two xttfs they're they're they're like born to trade, so like they definitely had a little kick.

But I just think the reason this number is higher is because of the flows, which attract more issuers as Katie mentioned.

And if you just have more products and more volume and more like big legacy firms trying to push through ETFs, you just have a bigger tent and it's more popular.

So some of this is just the expansion of ETFs.

I think the degend bit helps a little bit because people love trading.

And I also think that honestly, fifty three trillion isn't what it used to be.

Droll, you know, so yeah, I mean the fifty three trillion today is like ten billion ten years ago.

Just kidding, it's not that crazy.

But like you ever noticed, like numbers are just like they're just like this brings it back to like.

Speaker 1

Could you draw a direct line between the number of leverage gtfs and that volume?

Is that?

Yeah?

I mean I had all these leverage dtfs come out.

Speaker 4

That's the trajectory of levered volume, which is either single stock or the index based ones, is slowly been climbing.

Yeah, and that's just because you're in a bull market, and so people like to add on leverage, and whenever there's a down draft, you see the inverse volume spike.

But that usage rate has definitely climbed.

You think about you know, Eric and I we always talk sports.

It's a player that's being constantly more involved.

You can stick with the horse metaphor or a horse jockey, jockey jockey.

He's using all different horses.

Speaker 2

So I can tell you five trillion, So ten percent of the volume is leverage, which is a lot because they don't make up leverage makes up one percent of the assets, ten percent of the volume, which is good because you don't want people holding the stuff, you want them to trade it.

Speaker 4

The other interesting aspect is there's other corners that will pop up every now and then outside of equity and leverage, like gold.

Remember gold, probably six seven weeks ago, gld was doing massive volume and GLDM silver the whole precious metal spectrum that also contributes to that tally.

So what's happening is when someone needs exposure, whether it's long, short or an adjustment, you're seeing them go to ETFs more and more and more, which I think is great for the industry.

But every now and then you see an ETF that a random one pop up in the top five to ten most traded.

Speaker 2

The other thing is a lot of this volumes coming from overseas.

I just traveled the world this year pretty much, and the volume isn't growing as fast as you think it would overseas.

If you are a pension fund in Japan, let's say you might use EWJ over your own homegrown Japan ETF, which is weird, right, But these institutions, the bigger you are, the more you require deep liquidity.

So the US is kind of like a vampire sucking liquidity from all over the world, and it's unfortunate, and there's certain ways these countries are trying to fight back, but it's hard because it's just tough.

You put out of like a gold ETF in your country and then this institution is like, well, GLD trays like four billion a day, you trade like ten million a day if that, Yeah, and they don't want to they're gonna be.

They're gonna they're gonna put a forty million position on They're obviously going to go to the more liquid one.

Speaker 3

You're seeing that in listings overall when it comes to companies as well, that people are listing their companies in the US because that's where the liquidity is, that's where the depth of capital markets is.

And I feel like, you know, this is a tentacle of that that you're seeing the US becoming a vampire of sorts when it comes to ETFs as well.

But I do think that Toddy make a good point that like the muscle memory is just there now, especially in a time of crisis.

That's when you see spy volume spike.

For example, people have that blueprint down that the market is in turmoil.

I'm going to go to ETFs because I know I'm going to get that exposure and it's probably going to be fairly liquid, at least relative to my other options.

Speaker 4

Absolutely, I mean the one inme we didn't talk about.

We's talking about leverage, but the growth of volume and launches in other option related categories, drivetive categories, right, optioning, come FX hedging, all that stuff too, that's definitely contributing as well.

I mean, the options market in terms of activity is also exploded.

Speaker 1

This has been a big year for options, Katie bring us home, Yeah, home stretch of the triple crown.

What do you make of all this and what do you think twenty twenty six is going to look like?

Speaker 3

I do think it's interesting that we haven't talked about active really at all.

I mean, sort of through talking about all of these options based ETFs, these single stock ETFs, those count as active in terms of classification, but they aren't traditional stock picking.

But it feels like that was another big story in twenty twenty five, It was the story in twenty twenty four, and I have to imagine it'll be a big part of the story in twenty twenty six as well.

Speaker 1

Well.

And when you think about that, what was it sixty?

Was it sixty?

New issuers?

Like, where's the white space here?

It's got to be mostly active.

Speaker 3

Yeah, especially when you think of share classes actually arriving in twenty twenty six.

I think that a lot of your traditional mutual function with their mutual fund lineups, probably a portion of which is active or going to try to grab that ETF lifeline.

Speaker 4

Don I think if there are more cuts to interest rates, perhaps there are down the line.

I would keep an eye on the seven trillion in money market assets, not that those are gonna go to stocks, but as Katie mentioned, active and an active fixed income because you're gonn want to get yield somewhere if you're not getting in from money market funds, and ETFs are the next best way to play that.

Speaker 2

Also, the ETF share class, if that comes out again, you're inviting the fox into the henhouse because these clients who are sitting in this mutual fund, which again it's like owning a compact disc in terms of technology, they're gonna want to transfer over to the ETF class.

And now if they can do it with no text consequence, this could be a real boon for ETF flows.

This isn't the same as organic sentiment.

When you see real true organic sentiment like a GLD this year, or you know, like VOU, it's interesting.

Some of this BYOA sentiment where it comes over isn't quite as interesting.

But to nerds and like people follow in the industry, it's it's very important.

So there could be this drainage from mutual funds into ETFs that simply are the legacy managers sort of like slowly moving their clients over taking the little bit of cannibalism hit because the ETFs won't charge quite as much as they used to make, but it helps them like be where the fish are biting now and like fight another day.

And this is something that I think will drive flows and something that Katie wrote about with Capitol Group.

If you look at some of these legacy stock picking firms from like that were really big in the nineties, t ROW, Capitol Group, DFA, if you look at their mutual funds, they see outflows.

You look at their ETFs, they all see inflows.

Now, we can't do one for one there, but clearly there's some cannibalization going on there, and that I don't know is that active working or is that just like the current clients of this active shop are finally moving over to the new format that's different than getting fresh bites.

That's why a jetpyr or JPST.

When something is an organic hit, or even the bitcoin ETFs, that's why it's so exciting, and we like grab it like a dog on a bone because I'm like, it's hard to do this.

And by the way, can we just I want to cover one of the speaking of organic hits, this guy Bruce Bond.

This this billionaire now I guess he is.

Speaker 4

He's a billionaire.

Speaker 2

This guy he built up power shares sold to Investco and instead of just like going to retire in an island, he grew another firm called Innovator, which made the Buffer ETFs just sold it.

Katie reported that he sold it for two billion dollars.

Can you tell us about this deal, because to me, that's another organic hit that is hard.

Yeah.

Speaker 3

Well, it sort of loops back to what we were talking about.

With all these upstarts entering the industry, I have to imagine the Bruce Bond model is kind of inspiring.

How you would want your career to play out if you're one of these people with an ETF startup.

The fact that he built power shares, he sold that he built Innovator just sold to Goldman for two billion dollars, just identifying a need that people were going to desire seeing what wasn't yet in the ETF wrapper.

I mean, structured products have been around for a long time, but Innovator was one of the first to put that into the ETF wrapper in a way that could be packaged and sold and pitched to people.

And it's interesting that Goldman decided to buy Innovator versus try to build it in house.

They do have buffer ETFs, they have three, i believe, with thirty million in assets, but opted instead to buy Innovator, which is really an interesting move.

Speaker 2

It is and Joel, ten years ago, if I had told you an active manager is going to come out with products to charge ninety basis points and they're going to make a killing and they're going to see quarterly flows break records every other year, I'm like, that's impossible.

We're in the Vanguardian era.

It's impossible.

But that's what he did, and he did it by curing anxiety because these boomers are all nervous as well.

Because they made a ton of money and they don't want to lose at all.

Speaker 1

It's not quite Dejon though, is it.

Speaker 2

No?

No opposite.

This is if djens are looking for like adrenaline, these boomers are looking to sleep at night.

Yeah, so they're like, I'll give you a bunch.

I'll give up a lot of upside if you cure my downside.

So I don't feel like worry about it.

So Bruce Bond these if you own the stock market and the money market fund, some people say like it's is as good as owning this long term.

But the guarantee is powerful, and I think the emotions and psychology of investors are underlooked here.

The other thing I will say is Goldman has been pretty quiet since Brian Lake joined.

Now, Brian Lake is the driver of JEPY.

I mean, he came out with the two biggest active funds on the planet and he went to Goldman and he like disappeared.

Hadn't heard from him in a while.

This is interesting.

I feel we'll have some other big news from Goldman.

But get this, even with this acquisition, twenty eight billion dollar firm, Goldman moved from seventeenth place to fifteenth place.

Think about it.

You're Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest brands in the world.

You've been in the ETF market fifteen years.

You just bought a firm for two billion dollars and you still a point five percent market share.

That's how brutal this industry is.

Droll, and that's how big Vanguard and black Rock are, by the way, I mean, it's just the numbers are staggering.

It's like when you look at like the planets and you see like Earth and Neptune.

They put Jupiter on there and you're like, oh my god.

Like it's just another level of these big firms, and it just shows you how tough this industry is.

But the reason it's so tough is because the products are also good, are pretty competitive, and the investors like it.

So it's hell for issuers, heaven for investors.

Speaker 4

Final thought, I mean, good job of you on that reporting, Katie.

It was a team effort and with Emily two right, it was.

Speaker 3

Me, Emily GRIFFEO and Todd Gillespie.

Speaker 4

I think this is very bullish ETFs the go along with the triple Crown.

I'm very curious to see now do other asset managers start looking to that mid to lower tier for interesting issuers out there.

Speaker 1

I think so Tony she's from.

Speaker 2

I mean, we've long felt that the asset management industry in ten twenty years from now will look like the airlines.

There'll be three gigantic brands owning seventy five percent of all the assets, basically black Rock, Vanguard and State Street plus like ten of the isshoers.

And then they'll be like real specialty niche like Alaska Air or like Costa Rica Air.

Speaker 1

Sounds like a bunch of large caps and small caps.

Oh see what I did there?

Speaker 2

I don't know.

I don't know if that was a zinger.

I'm not sure what that was all right, But all I do know is consolidation is coming.

Speaker 1

It has to, yep, exactly, Todd Katie, thanks for joining us in Tricks.

Speaker 4

Thanks thanks a lot, great to pet with the guys.

Speaker 1

Thanks for listening to Tricks until next time.

You can find us on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever else you'd like to listen.

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Trillions is produced by Magnus Hendrickson and Ryan Kessler.

Amy Keane is our executive producer.

Sage Bauman is the head of Bloomberg Podcasts.

O Bye Boom Boo

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