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In late May, troops from Thailand and Cambodia exchanged gunfire in a disputed border area, leaving a Cambodian soldier dead and relations between the historic rivals at a dangerous inflection point.

The conflict set off a chain reaction that included border closures, threats of retaliation, and finally, a phone call between Thailand's Prime Minister Peton Tarn Shinawat and Hun Sen, the former leader of Cambodia who still holds power as president of the country's main political party and the father of its prime minister.

Can you hear me.

Well as you can hear in the phone call, she started by calling him uncle.

Papicha Tanaka Sempipot covers Thailand for Bloomberg out of Bangkok.

She's known by her Thai nickname Best, She said.

Pet tannk Taran is the fourth member of the Shinawat family to lead Thailand in the last quarter century.

Her father, former Prime Minister Tosin Shinawat, still holds sway in Thai politics.

He and Hunsen forged a friendship years ago.

She started calling him uncle in the call because to her, Hunsen was a family friend, and Hunsen had been their time and again for the Shinawat family, providing them refuge when they needed.

They were so close that Tuksin even had a room reserved at Hunsen's house.

Pet tunk Tarn's differential tone and calling him uncle was a tip of the iceberg.

During the seventeen minute call, she appeared to side with Hunsen on multiple occasions, referring to a top Thai military commander as an opponent and promising to take care of Hunsen's concerns.

She sounded critical of the high military, and she characterized them as the other side, while putting her and Hun Sent on the same side, and that is probably a.

Breach in the diplomatic protocols.

It also reflected that the Thai Army and the Thai government were not seeing eye to eye about the conflict, which did not inspire confidence in the Thai people.

A few days after the call, Hunsen posted audio of the conversation on Facebook, plunging Petung Tarn's coalition government into crisis.

By the phone call set off a big and dramatic chain of events, pushing the government to the brink of collapse.

With the exit of a key coalition party.

The strong public reaction to the call also set off several protests, including a massive one that called for Penalton to resign.

On June twenty eight.

Twenty thousand people came out that day, and that was the biggest turnout in a long time.

Peton Tarn eventually apologized for the phone call and claimed that her methods were actually a negotiating tactic, but the conversation has left her political future and Thailand's government in limbo.

In the wake of the protests, Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended her as Prime Minister, citing alleged ethical misconduct.

The court's verdict, which is expected to come later this year, could permanently remove her from the job.

This spiraling political turmoil might all seem very dramatic, but for Thailand, it's a recurring theme.

The nation has seen about twenty constitutions and roughly a dozen coups since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in nineteen thirty two.

This is really another day in Thai politics, and also not the first time you find tax in order.

Shinawat family at many turning points or crossroads in contemporary Thai history, after all disease.

The dynasty that has dominated high politics for the past quarters injury, but now people are wondering if this is the beginning of the end of their dynastic rule.

This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News.

I'm Wanha.

Every week we take you inside some of the world's biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and businesses that drive this ever shifting region.

Today in the show, what the recent suspension of Thailand's prime minister could mean for its battered economy, and after nearly three decades, is the Shinawat family's grip on Thai politics finally come into an end.

Petung Tarn Shinawat is the fourth member of the powerful Shinawat clan to lead Thailand.

Her family has dominated high politics ever since her father Toksin first came into power in two thousand and one.

They absolutely have huge influence over typ You cannot talk about Tai politics without mentioning Taxin or his family.

Tutxin, the main character, was Prime miniserve from two thousand and one, for which he served a full term after winning a landslide victory, but then his second term in office was cut short in two thousand and six when the military seized power.

The generals in charge accused him of corruption and abusive power.

His party was dissolved and he eventually went into exile.

But even then, as he faced corruption charges, Toxin continued to influence Thai politics through per Thai, his family's political party.

When people were voting for Pertai, they knew that they were essentially voting for a Taxan government without Taxin in the picture.

The Chinawats came back to contest the election in twenty eleven with the Puts High party under Yin Lak, who is Tuxan's sister, but her term was again cut short.

And now that brings us to the most recent election in twenty twenty three, which saw Tuxan's daughter Patan Tan rise to power and bring her dynasty back to the top political office.

And that's where we are.

Now.

Why is it that the shino Watts are so popular and loved by some in Thailand?

Why is it that they have maintained their dominance politically for so many years?

A lot of that had to do with the lasting legacy that Taxin left behind when he was Prime Minister.

Taxin is best known for taxonomics, which is a way of calling his populist economic policies that were spent heavily on grassroots measures designed to stimulate domestic consumption, but at the same time it was also benefiting big businesses, so he was seen as both pro business as well as supporting grassroots and one of the most lasting legacies that he left behind is the universal healthcare that he established in two thousand and two.

His supporters loved him so much for spreading the benefits of wealth and growth in a country with big gaps between which and poor.

You could say that it was really the.

First time that the grassroots rural farmers felt like they had a leader that saw them truly.

Tocsin's immense popularity and overwhelming election victories disrupted Thailand's long standing political order.

His politics alienated the old guard and created powerful enemies among conservatives.

That's one of the reasons he was forced into exile.

So the establishment saw Tucsin and his clan as a threat to its political power, social hierarchy, and also a threat to the monarchy, which is revered as the lynchpin of Thailand's national identity.

Tocsin came to power on a pro democracy platform, but in order for him to be able to secure a safe return to Thailand, he cut a deal with the establishment, and critics say he abandoned the pro democracy cause.

His party is now in a coalition with one backed by a general who ousted his sister's government.

Now, certainly when people think about Thai politics, military coup come to mind.

Why is the political situation in Thailand so turbulent and why have there been so many coups?

It really comes down to the establishment elites who don't respect elections but also don't have enough power to sustain authoritarian rule.

The bottom line is Thailand is perhaps a cautionary tale for what happens to a society where democratic institutions fall apart, leaving the rich and powerful to fight it out and election protests, coup, party dissolution, rins and repeat.

That's what happens in Tip politics.

Now, in your story, you interviewed a political analyst professor at Bangkok's Chula Lunkorn University, who said very interestingly that you know, essentially the powers that be aren't interested and don't care about Thailand moving forward with any kind of stability and workability, and I wonder, then, what do they care about and what do these political groups, these political factions want for Thailand.

The elite establishment care about maintaining the status quo.

The elite fear that the real democratic reform could unravel the entire system that they have been building to protect their privileges, precisions, and immunity from accountability.

They want to maintain political control, which safeguards their massive economic networks, including lands and concessions and monopolies and military run businesses and the elite patronage system.

The repeated systematic pattern of dissolving political parties, especially those that won elections over the last twenty years, seems more than a deliberate way to keep democratic institutions weak and to keep the traditional status quo for the elites to stay in power.

After the break.

What the political chaos in Thailand has meant for its economy and its status in the region.

The potential removal of Thailand's Prime Minister and the ensuing political upheaval comes as a country faces economic and geopolitical threats.

Bloomberg's Papita Tanaka sempipot or Best says, the latest political fallout and a revolving door of leaders highlight what has been a persistent problem in Thailand.

There's never been an elected government in power long enough to actually address the problems the country is facing.

Thailand has one of the highest income in equality between the.

Rich and the poor.

Thailand is suffering from poor educational system, high household debt, low private investment, and also really slow economic growth compared to its regional neighbors.

Much of the country's current predicament stems from as nine years under the rule of former army chief Prajut chian Ocha, who rose to power in a coup in twenty fourteen.

The political instability has had long lasting consequences for Thailand's economy and its standing in the region.

During the time between twenty fourteen to now, the economy has crawled at a pace of like just under two percent annually.

Political uncertainty, like frequent changes to governments or military crews or mass protests have made foreign investors wary of making long term commitments in the country because they don't know what's going to happen.

Some companies have postponed or redirected investments to more stable countries in the region, like Vietnam or Indonesia, and we have seen that foreign direct investment into Thailand have lagged behind most.

Of the neighbors.

Not only is Thailand lagging behind its neighbors in Southeast Asia, it's also found itself distanced from what was once a powerful ally, the US.

The US downgraded diplomatic ties with Chailand after the twenty fourteen coup and scaled back the annual military exercises.

So this has led the military and the military backed governments at the time to cozy up to China through economic ties and lessen dependence on Washington.

So this makes it harder for the US to count on Thailand as a stable ally, particularly in efforts to counter China's growing influence in the region.

And the constant upheaval in the country also reduces Thailand's strategic leverage between the US and China and makes it less relevant as an Asian power.

That doesn't mean Thailand lacks appeal.

Too much of the world.

Thailand is associated with scenic beaches, Buddhist temples, wild nightlife, which was all depicted in the hit series White Lotus.

What happens in Thailand stays in Thailand.

So what does that mean?

Thailand is also the largest manufacturing hub for automobiles in Southeast Asia.

Automakers from Toyota and Nissan to Ford and Byd make their cars in the country, earning it the nickname the Detroit of Asia.

And it's a big exporter of agricultural products.

It's the world's biggest rice exporter after India.

Thailand is also a big commodities player.

It is one of the world's rice bowls.

Thailand's is also the world's biggest exporter of natural rubber and one of the biggest exporters of sugar, which the world cannot live without.

Best says Thailand can't leverage these strengths at home when the country's leaders have failed to get their act together over and over again.

Prime Minister Peton tarn Shinawat was criticized for being slow on negotiating a deal with President Donald Trump on tariffs.

The country's goods now face a thirty six percent levy, among the highest in the region.

The cause of political turmoil in the country is that it makes the country look inward and forget the outside world, and frequent leadership changes have also weakened Highland's ability to take consistent positions on global and regional issues like global supply chain disruption or the reordering of the global trade.

And because we spent so many years trying to put out fires in our own home, it's really hard to look beyond the smoke and plan for any modernizations.

So what happens is you don't get to look.

That far ahead or see long term potential, or see policies that are more for long term reforms than short term stimulus.

There's concern Thailand's economy could slide into a deep recession in the second half of the year if the country fails to get a better deal to avoid this steep US tariffs.

With the stakes so high and so much hinging on Thailand's political future, what happens next to the suspended prime minister is key.

If the court finds you're not guilty of the ethics violation, she returns as Prime Minister and everything goes back to normal.

But that could also mean more protests and even military intervention if the army wants an opportunity to seize power.

If Pedan Tan is deemed guilty by the court, then two potential scenarios could happen from that.

First, she would be disqualified.

Immediately and removed from office, and that would trigger a new prime minister of vote in the lower house of Parliament.

The best outcome is that the transition of power goes smoothly to another Prime minister or candidate from the same ruling Thai party, even though it's not a Shinawat in power, it's still a Shinawat ally and the Shinawat party that's still leading the government.

And there's another possible outcome that could spell trouble for Thailand.

If the coalition collapses during or before the Prime minister will vote, we're likely headed for a protracted political deadlock where no single candidate has enough support from the sitting lawmakers to become prime minister.

Then all hell kind of breaks loose with no functioning government, and that would threaten the passage of the budget bill for the next fiscal year that begins as soon as October.

So unless Platai hangs on, this could be the end of the Shinawat's dominance in Thai politics.

Now best We started this episode talking about how a suspension of a Thai prime minister over leaked phone call is just another day in Thai politics.

Even with the Shinawat family out of the picture.

If that were the case, would that bring about any fundamental change for Thailand's politics in its future?

You think this crisis is eye opening, but it will likely not bring about any fundamental changes to Thailand.

The Shinawats have been a key player in politics for quarter century, and they may be losing their appeal or it may be fading as players in this game, but the game still remains perfectly intact.

And if anything, this episode shows that the game is as rigged as it is efficient in helping the elite establishment eliminate its enemies.

It also shows that even.

If you try to reconcile and coexist with the old guards, you will be allowed to govern only with the blessing of the very forces that you opposed.

You can be a pawn in their chess game, while those forces will never fully trust you.

Be says right now.

Despite whoever happens the whole public office, the real power in Thailand lies with individuals and institutions that are not elected.

This episode, Another Day in Hi Politics.

Shows that without a big enough progressive win in Thailand, there seems to be no way to implement reforms to eventually break this cycle, and Thailand is possibly set to remain trapped in this vicious cycle that prevents true democracy from sticking around long enough after elections to fully take roots in a country.

This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News.

I'm wanha.

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