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All right, welcome back to The Charlie Kirk Show.

Hour two is underway, and it is the hour that everybody's been waiting for the results of our twenty twenty five turning.

Point Action Amfest draw pole.

So this is something we do at every Amfest, and we've got the we've got a major publication that's going to go live with it in just a second as well.

And here to unpack what we found from this straw pole is the one and only Rich Bars Big Data Pole who conducted it on our behalf.

Rich welcome back to the show.

Thanks for having me as always.

Yeah, well let's let's start.

Let's start with your your reaction, your experience at Amfest.

You were there, you you and Mark Mitchell led a breakout just you know, thirty thousand foot view.

What was it like in there and maybe what what's the disconnect between maybe what some people are saying.

Line versus what you experienced in person.

Well, first visually and I know I actually noticed to be a fact, but visually this looked like the biggest Amfest ever and you could see it if you've been to an Amfest before, this one was just as a matter of attendance and everything that was going on was huge.

It was huge.

So congratulations on that.

Because we're talking about a massive attendance folks.

And secondly, you know, the biggest thing that'll stand out is, you know, the media narrative and the infighting that they projected was going on over there, and we'll see this with the results of the Straw Pole.

Yeah, people debate, and that's what turning point has always been about.

But people there, people in attendance, right, and and the folks that were talking and interacting with people agree on so much more.

I mean, that's what it comes to this, that's the biggest disconnect that the media as usual always projects.

There was a lot more agreement than there was disagreement.

Yeah, and you so some top level marks that you were just telling me about is so this was the youngest straw Pole result based on just who took the poll, right, it was.

It skewed the youngest of any that we've ever had, because you know, even we struggle sometimes rich with getting the students to take the darn straw Pole, this time we got lots lots Just the average age of who took the poll was younger.

So it's actually going to give us a more interesting insight in some ways about where younger Americans, younger conservative voters younger, younger base voters where their heads are at right now.

And it was also the most response responses that we've ever gotten at a straw pole.

And what's which remarkable of remarkable about that, Rich, is that you know, we intentionally delayed this until we sent it out overnight after day three and into day four.

We wanted people to have this full experience before we asked them these questions.

So the response rate on a relatively short term was pretty remarkable.

Well, what just explain that from a polster's perspective, Rich, Well.

Straw poles can be a bit of a polster's nightmare, right because as the polster, you like, I want to start early, I want to get this going, but you also want people to have the experience before they answer some of these questions.

And honestly, it'll become very evident when we show people some of the questions, right why we want people to hear things first, which can be challenging because for people who are taking it and the polster, because you are now limiting yourself on the reaction time, so we expect a certain percentage and just from experience, we know what that is.

This blew up and you said it, and I was going to say it if you didn't.

This is the biggest America Fest st Straw Pole ever.

It's a very large sample, which means, folks, it's representative, it's statistically significant.

So I was over the moon, you know, I mean as a polster, I was over the moon when I you know, one minute you're logging in, you're seeing the responses come in.

The minute you see an explosion.

So I think too.

It also tells you that the respondents Andrew also, we're kind of hanging back and saying, let me, you know, let me open it up.

I'll take what I think I can.

We always give people a little bit of time to complete it, and then once they had the experience, they felt it was sufficient for them.

They they all filled it out almost at once.

On that last day a huge amount came in, which was great for us, It really was.

It was great.

So, you know, I'm toying with everybody wants to know the the who do we want as our twenty twenty eight GOP nominee.

I don't think.

Anybody's you know, I'm toying with delaying it, but I think we just have to, you know, I think we just have to review the reveal here, Rich, what is not surprising is who won, but what is surprising is by what margin.

So you know, drum roll please, studio.

Let's go ahead and throw up image one sixty six.

Who does the am Fest attendees?

Who do they want?

As their twenty twenty eight GOP to twenty eight And that big old bar right at the top is, of course jd.

Vance.

The next closest was Marco Rubio, the great Secretary of State in the Trump administration.

Rich, break this down.

Jd Vance is by is running away with the who do we want as the twenty twenty eight GOP nominee.

Explained the significance of that of that graph.

And the consistency of him pulling at that level.

I don't think he ever pulled below seventy five percent, folks.

That's well over a super majority.

And I will tell you this, Like we said, just a moment ago, there were people who were waiting back, waiting to see and when the Vice president gave his speech, it just went to that level.

Never looked back.

I mean, it was you know, some people you know, sitting back.

I can't wait to see what the vice president has to say.

This has never happened, Andrew, this is never I've done a lot of straw polls at a lot of different events, We've done a lot of amfest ones.

Right, this has never happened.

There has never been such widespread agreement over because what are they really telling you when they're picking who they want for the future nominee?

Right, what is the base?

What is the turning point?

Family telling you this is the direction we want to go in the future.

This is what we want for the future of the movement, for the future of the party.

And there are you know, the media wanted to talk about all of the different factions in the in the coalition.

Right, this is near.

You know, it's nearly unanimous, It's overwhelming.

And we asked a lot of other questions.

It doesn't matter what the answers for different demographic groups, how one favored other something over the other.

It doesn't matter when it comes to this question, who do you want for your nominee?

Everybody is in agreement.

There's not a single group that's disconnected or has a different opinion.

You know, always this is statistics.

You're always going to have marginal support for something over another.

Right, I mean That's just the way it works.

This is about, as you know, uniformity as you get close to your informative as.

You get so just so people have the exact numbers, it's eighty four point two percent chose jd Vance, YEP four point eight percent, so just under five percent chose Marco Rubio, two point nine percent chose Ron DeSantis, one point eight percent chose Don Junior, point three percent chose Ted Cruz, and point four percent chose Younkin.

I'm not sure why the orders got swipped.

Swapped there, but so that is basically the field you know undecided was it two point five percent and that we had three point one percent ride ins, right, So I don't know if there was anybody worth mentioning in the right in section rich, but that that is, you know, the field that people most predict for twenty twenty eight.

There is something worth worth mentioning, all right, and that is there is there are more than a few responses for Donald J.

Trump for a third term.

Right, But again, I mean you're gonna get that some and that just shows you how much the president is loved right by the base.

But there's outside of that, you know, there's a representation to libertarian wing.

You get a few for Thomas Massey and stuff like that, but it's not you know, you can see the percentage guys collectively, what that comes to.

It's still not that much.

I mean, this poll, the results of this poll are very clear.

We don't get results like this.

It just doesn't happen.

Hey, Rich, have a question in the history of a turning point straw pole that you've conducted, have we ever seen a question like this get you know, have a front lawn runner with this much margin of victory.

Nope, That's what I was just about to say.

Especially, I mean, could you imagine this early We did turning point straw poles going into twenty four even and it was a robust field.

There's some pretty you know, significant debate between who do we want Ron destand this do we want President Trump?

President Trump was always winning that, uh and winning it overwhelmingly.

But is this early particularly It's not because we don't have a vision of where other candidates would take the party, Andrew, That's not what's going on here.

It's that people do understand the differences and in whatever you know, minor or major that may be, they understand it.

They are choosing JD Events.

They're choosing the vice president.

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We are a mere three days out.

From the big day.

I'm very excited about that.

So, Blake, I promised you that you were going.

To get to do the big reveal.

It is about to be about ready to be thrown up, so I don't know, you want to take it away, Blake.

Yeah, yeah, it'll be ready by the time I get to it.

We were we actually ready shopping what questions to put into the straw pole.

We just did it the night I think Saturday night.

We were talking I can out what's to put into it, and obviously we had the stuff.

We've had debates over the past year about America's relationship with Israel, how it relates to stuff in the Middle East.

We had people bring it up on stage.

It was a recurring theme in our member exclusive interviews, so we just said throw in to the attendees, what best describes what your view of Israel as do you view them as our number one ally as just one ally of many, or do you think they're not an American ally, which some prominent figures have said.

And do we have that result ready to throw up?

Yeah, let's throw up one seventy eight.

And I think the result was pretty refreshing.

You got you said.

Thirty three percent said it was a top our top ally, fifty three percent went for one of many, and thirteen percent said not an ally, which I think you mentioned.

It is the youngest group we've had at Amfest, and I think it does put into perspective.

I think one ally of many it gets an outright majority.

I think that would probably describe the position Charlie was in the over the last couple of years that they are a friendly country, they are a country we care about, but they're not necessarily this monomaniacal focus that we must be fixated on to the exclusion of other potential allies.

And I think this also shows only thirteen percent say.

Not an ally that they're hot, you know, basically at best in neutral or perhaps even a hostile country to us.

This is a take you here, a lot online, It's a take you here a lot on X, It's a take some influencers really push.

But I don't think it's really it's taking over the GOP in the way that a lot of critics have tried to argue.

Yeah so so Rich.

If you go online, you would be entirely surprised by the fact that it within you know, a statistically significant sample of the youngest and the youngest sample set that we've ever had from an amphis strapol that thirteen point three percent like you, if you went online, you would think it would be.

Like fifty to fifty.

What do you make of this pole result and what's your message to the GOP with this in mind?

You know, neither Laur or I were surprised by this, and we were thinking and comparing it to what we see and that it really has been a trend with the general public, not just among you know, the base of the Republican Party.

Look, the Internet is real, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it's really representative, right, I mean, that's the difference.

People have to keep reminding themselves when they see these narrative wars and these pushes online.

This is basically representative too of what we heard walking around and talking to people.

I mean, Andrew and same thing with winning the mid terms.

By the way, that was the number one question I got walking around talking with different people.

They would say, oh, this is you know, great and I understand the debate, but we really, you know, what can we do to win?

We want to win.

That was overwhelming, well, just walking around the place, so a lot of this didn't surprise me.

I do think though, that it is a bit of a wake up call to you know, the older guard of the GOP who are used to they've become there's an expectation, you know that Israel will get a always you know, like a bit of a privileged or special place in the conversation, and that's not where the future really sees our you know, uh when it comes to you know, where we prioritize our public, our foreign policy.

That's just not the future that people see, especially among younger people.

So not something they'll have to come to grip with it.

But it doesn't mean there's this outward hatred or anti Semitism.

It's just like, hey, look, we have been put last for a very long time.

We just want to be put first, and we don't really think that, you know, questioning the old Orthodoxy or the right is a bad thing, and I'm not necessarily sure it is myself, Andrew, you know, to be.

Honest, No, no, totally, I share some of that.

I think you you articulated it well.

And in our one Rich, I said, you know what's interesting about Amfest and turning point these conferences, we're looking to define the dominant core of a winning coalition, right right, the dominant center cut and so you're gonna get these really loud voices that want us to be anti Asrie.

You're gonna get these really loud.

Voices that want us to, you know, essentially say that Israel is the most important topic.

You know that there is, because it's a proxy war for other things whatever.

What we found here is that, you know what I my my takeaway from this pole, Rich, was that maybe a couple of years ago, maybe five ten before October twenty twenty three, October seventh, that you maybe would have seen that chunk that said it's our top ally be a little larger.

And where it looks like the consensus of the movement is really going is that hey, Israel is an ally and they're but they're one of many, and so let's just put our own country first.

I think that is the new consensus that is emerging on the right, and that's an important insight to glean from this.

I really believe that.

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Without further Ado Rich, we got to get to these these other these other polls.

Okay, these other pole questions, and I think they're really important.

So we've already kind of mentioned what are the most important topics for people.

Blake kind of already did the big reveal one sixty five.

The winning the midterms is the most important by far.

Let's go ahead and show that image one sixty five.

All right, see how much it stands out.

It's like, you know, it's a sore thumb right there.

It is by far and away the number one topic.

And to Blake's point, it kind of had me wishing we wouldn't have have done that, just so we could have seen what the other ones.

But what we see behind it are voter integrity, voter idea at nine point three percent, the affordability crisis, which I'm not surprised at at eight point one percent, Mass deportations five point three percent, accountability for deep state law fair at four point two percent, rounding out the top five issues.

In the midterm.

Yeah, go ahead, Blake that ending the war in Ukraine dead last.

I think, what is that point four percent?

It's well under one percent.

And yeah, I noticed that too.

Ending the war in Ukraine is the last.

Is the last, I think, because we're not sending the money like we used to be.

I mean, that's what really I think brought it home for people, is it felt like we're in these we're running these huge deficits, We've got this huge tax burden, the economy sucks, and we're spending all our money on a war, you know, abroad to fight Putin.

And that's what made it.

Yeah, go ahead, Rich.

Well, I was just gonna say, I think it's indicative of two things.

One is how many problems people think that we have.

Right that has to get before that, because I don't think there's much support out there for the Ukraine war anymore.

And then two is I do think and I'm just from speaking to people about this, I think everybody pretty much sees the ends and so it's really kind of only a matter of time.

Among the base anyway, they definitely do.

Whereas you know, the public, that's a little bit that would be a different result if we were pulling the general public.

But uh, as far as that, you know, not adding the winning the mid terms, I do hear what you guys are saying.

But in the back of my mind, I'm thinking, I think I am glad we did this way because it does show that despite again what the media narrative was or was trying to spin, at the end of the day, like the turning point family wants to win, despite everything that they tried to showcase.

Is the vision they want to win and the number The reason for that is simple because they know what's Unlike maybe some of the middle of the country, middle of the road and the and and less you know, politically active, you know, parts of our coalition, they don't understand what's going to happen if Democrats win, you know, I mean, that's what it comes down to.

While the base does they know what what you know, what kind of turbulence if that's even the appropriate word.

We're in for you know what's on the horizon there with.

Yeah, people get it, Yeah, they get it.

Let's go ahead and throw this one, I thought was really really surprise me actually, and this was the what are the biggest threats facing the country?

Let's go ahead and throw up one point sixty four biggest threats facing America right now and up at the top.

Now, this was a rank order poll, so people could go one through whatever the number was, and by far radical Islam.

Rich did this surprise you?

Radical Islams, Socialism, Marxism is number two, Mass migration number three.

Yeah, you know what, it did a little.

But then when I was looking at it, I thought this, the first two that really are at the top of the rank distribution are ideologies that the base feels are just not compatible with the American ideal, the American way of life.

And then everything else kind of is stem Yes, there are problems, there are social problems, they're economic problems, but if we could tackle this other thing first, which is that fundamentally we've been letting in a lot of people who are not really compatible or not you know that, and some of those other problems are stemming from that.

So yeah, I mean, I did see where they were where they were coming from with this, and then when after you get past rank two into rank three through five, we start to see, you know, those other you know, more traditional things that we would expect people to say.

So, you know, given that of course large faith based, you know, obviously this is a where there's a population that is extremely Christian, so they're extremely pro America, extremely nationalists, so they're looking at some of these ideas that over in the long term.

Andrew, it's almost like some of the other things are just symptoms to a greater problem, and we have to deal with the greater problem.

Blake, what's your take on the top five here?

Number one is just a big testament frankly to Charlie, who was really fixated on that topic in the last few months of his life.

He talked about it a lot, and I think he deserves some credit for really bringing it back.

In some ways, you could say it feels like a time warp to two thousand and two or something, and then we went through a pretty long period where it was more in the background.

Yet it still remains a concern.

And the reason it's a concern is because of issue number three mass migration.

We still we went to fight them over there so that we could then import them over here and then have to fight them here again.

And Charlie really saw that when he was in the UK, he was really becoming concerned.

It was hitting him We're going to have this very large, often very radical Islamic component to Western societies that just did not exist before.

Fifteen twenty years ago.

And I think he really did a lot of work to spread that awareness among the base.

Besides that, I think it's really interesting that corrupt courts, so to speak, has broke.

Into the top five.

That's expressing this realization that the biggest obstacle to a lot of President Trump's core agenda, certainly on mass deportations or DEI, is this fact there's just judges who seem to have really taken it to heart that even if they have no legal basis, no constitutional basis for what they're doing, they can gum up the process for years on end.

They have.

If you need the Supreme Court to step in for anything the president wants to do, you can really slow down the agenda in a big way.

I was most surprised.

Besides, I was really surprised that low fertility finished second from last.

That was a big topic Charlie's talked about.

It's a big thing.

A lot of people have talked about the need to revive the American family, the need for people to have more kids.

But we didn't successfully get it out of the base on this pole.

It was right there, just only above technology and AI as a concern for America.

Can I can I just add something to that real quick, because I was too I was stunned by that.

And then I remembered that Benny gave this blockbuster speech and on the big screen he threw up this graph showing a recovery and fertility rates, especially among right Christians in general.

And I thought, I hope that didn't impact that because it showed it showed that there has been a lot of improvement in recent years as opposed to what was really and I still believe is an existential threat to our culture, to our way of life, to our you know, being able to imperpetuity continue the American experience.

So I thought about it, and I said, well, there was that, and that speech was attended.

That was a that was a bar.

He really he lit the house on fire with that is great, but I wonder if that didn't have something you do with it, or people in general aren't thinking that we're making more progress with it.

But like Blake, I think, and that's something that you know, myself included.

I mean, we need to keep an eye on because you know, while there has been progress, it's not nearly enough.

I want to go to another one here, Rich, and this is this was a fascinating one pick for your approval rating of various members of the Trump cabinet.

And I think some people might be surprised at who came out on top.

You know, I thought for sure it was gonna be Secretary Rubio.

But let's go ahead and throw up one sixty three.

And the way that walk with the audience through Rich, how you had people answer this question.

So it was basically the same way that a polster will ask about the approval for the president, only this we said, look, we want to ask about the cabinet members one by one, tell us whether you approve or disapprove, and of course gave them the answer to the the option for strongly somewhat.

And can I just go ahead, Oh so I can just go ahead and say, look, Secretary Pete blew it away eighty three percent who strongly approve of the job that he's doing.

I mean overall, with the exception of a few here and there, Pam Bondi stands out.

Others are just not as well known, right, and they're not in the public light as much like Doug Bargum for instance.

They for the exception of a few, the cabinet members are doing well.

RFK did extremely well, Robert Kennedy June extremely I mean incredible, but heg Sath definitely came out on top here.

Secretary of Rubio did strong as well, but strongly approved for him was seventy nine percent.

But it really does come out, you know.

I think it's the fighting spirit Andrew.

You know, when the media comes after him and says we're gonna, we're gonna if this is a war crime, we're gonna impeach you for this, he says, yeah, and I'm gonna smoke another narco terrorist in this guy.

You got.

The base wants their leaders to fight, They want their leaders to fight for them, they want them to fight back.

And Pete Hegseye fights back.

Well, yeah, I mean that's exactly right.

You know who surprised me on this as well.

Was and I was I was looking was Secretary Christy Nome, Department of Homeland Security.

I actually thought she performed extraordinarily well in this poll, and I had been hearing that maybe she wouldn't perform as well in this poll.

So she got seventy two point eight percent strongly approved, seventeen point three percent somewhat approve.

Right, And so that people love deportations, Rich, they love the deportations.

That's what it.

Comes down to.

And I was thinking much along the lines of what you just said.

But she's a part of what people see to be Trump's biggest success or are part of that entire issue.

And on that note, Yeah, Rich, why don't we just throw it throw it up the one point sixty nine Trump two point zero biggest accomplishments.

We have a minute left in this segment, and it's deportations and securing the border.

I mean one and two, those are the things people are most happy about.

Yeah, it's overwhelming.

And you know what, on this note, and I know we're getting close to the end of the segment.

On this note, the administration is starting to do a better job of reminding the American people about this accomplishment.

The base knows, the base is giving him credit for it.

He's got to do a little bit better.

They know that it's good that he's trying, because unfortunately, it's a sad testament to the American voter.

When you fix a problem, they forget and you have to constantly remind them that remember what it was.

The President did that in his speech the other the primetime speech, by the way, and that was the right move.

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Uh Rich you your lovely wife gave you an insight on that fertility rate thing.

What was the point there?

Yeah, the point was a lot of after you got pasted that, you know, first and second tier, A lot of it was about affordability.

And maybe people you know are worried or concerned about being able to afford to have a lot of children, right or other people's ability to have other children, So you put that stuff first in your mind when you're considering, you know, these as priorities.

And I hadn't thought about that point, but it's probably some of that has to do with it.

Yeah, I think you're right.

I think affordability.

I mean, also, you know the thing that occurs to me in that particular venue with those particular people, there's so many babies and kids running around, you know, like probably those most people think, you know, we're gonna have a lot of babies.

That's not our top concern, So that's my other theory on that.

And we have the most responded to youngest by with average age of the respondent.

Straphole that we are unpacking with Big Dada Pole, Rich Barris, the polster that conducted the pole on our behalf, and this one Rich, I think I'm just gonna say at backstage, I had a conversation with a very important person that we're mapping out twenty twenty six in the midterms, and I'm telling you, you know, you've got this issue of base fatigue or maybe lack of enthusiasm, whatever it is.

We saw this with some of the special elections we struggle in off years.

The question is how do you get people energetic?

And I looked at the early results on this question, this next one, and I said, I'm telling you, I know people are terrified of it.

I know that the rank and file Republican in DC is terrified of it.

The base wants this.

If you want to drive base turnout, lean into this issue.

Find a way to thread the needle so you don't freak out.

You know, the people you know that are in these contested elections, I'm sure, but I'm telling you so will drive turnout.

I think it's a winner even amongst some Democrats that don't want to even admit it, or Independents that don't want to admit it.

They don't necessarily want to say it out loud.

We asked the question, Rich, would you support an immigration moratorium?

Go up and go ahead and.

Throw up one sixty eight.

This did way better than even I anticipated one sixty eight.

Look at that number.

The p ninety of the attendees at America Fest, which again is these are the grassroots.

This is like the plumbers, the electricians.

These are everyday people that attend this and lots of students they want in immigration moratorium.

Now, I am not naive.

I know that the Republicans in Congress are not ready to tackle this issue.

I strongly encourage you to reconsider your appetite for this issue ahead of the midterms.

Rich, what's your takeaway here?

Yeah, I would say suck it up, Buttercup.

I mean, if you remember when President Trump posted that he would do the moratorium, we actually pulled that even nationally and it did extremely well.

That was right before Tennessee the special election in Tennessee seven and if you remember Emerson had of poll was very close it was only two points.

And then I came on the show to tell you that once he did that, how much extremely enthusiastic and certainty to vote jumped by double digits.

And I do attribute that larger margin than some people expected to have come from giving him a little bit of a shot, a wake up call to the base, wake up call to the voters.

This is popular.

Not only is it popular, I mean look at some of the other questions.

You know, mass migration is viewed as an existential threat to people.

So to have this as a backbone issue which you can then deliver an economic message out of right, like so many of our problems come from this, this immigration issue basically being broken since heartseller right, So this is a gold mine Andrew a gold mine.

So I mean strongly suggest I would tell them you got to do it, you want to win, do it, lean into it, make it the case.

Oh sorry, yeah, it's just yeah.

I honestly, when I saw it get ninety percent, the first question that came to mind was do they all know what a moratorium?

Miss?

Uh?

But yeah, because listen, yeah, go ahead, go ahead.

It shows the energy for the base, because in practice, would a full moratory would it really have ninety percent support.

I'm not sure.

I kind of liked the idea, but I'm also I realized that would be pretty dramatic for a lot of people.

But I think it shows the energy on this.

It shows how people are enthusiastic to see a sea change on immigration.

That there's really.

Been an expansion of what people see is possible in American politics.

Oh, you actually can secure your border.

You actually can support people, especially criminals, people who hate America and so on, and so people are also entertaining, Oh, you actually can stop You don't need to let people into your country necessarily, that that's a choice that you can make.

You've also had horrific scandals lately, right, that highlighted some of these right in Minnesota, and there are others, Right, They haven't gotten as much media attention, but people are seeing this, you know, when they open up their social media, they are seeing this.

And again, we did pull a very similar question nationally and it got fifty five percent support.

So, you know, I think that people are at a point where they understand that this thing has been kind of like a runaway you know car for years.

Somebody's got to pump the brake until we figure out what it is we until we get our hands on what has happened and what needs to happen going forward, because we just how much more of this can we take?

Right?

How much more of this.

Can we take?

Well?

Rich, thank you for partnering with us and turning point action, getting this poll done, this drop hoole done, and I think the results are wonderfully revealing about where again, that core center winning coalition is ideologically, where they're at on the issues, where they're out on Trump, where they're aut on vance, where they're out on the cabinet.

Well done, my friend, and thank you for joining us for this hour.

Thank you, and Merry Christmas, guys, all.

The Christmas Rich, Merry Christmas to all of you as well out there.

We'll see you tomorrow.

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