[SPEAKER_01]: Hello.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hello.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hello.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is the Vancouver Weather State podcast.

[SPEAKER_00]: And welcome back to Vancouver Real Estate podcast.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm your host, Adam Skleena.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm your other host, Matt Skleena.

[SPEAKER_00]: And Matt should say host, but also realtors with open reality and downtown Vancouver so fired up for today, it's our annual market recap, you and I dig deep on the data, this is from this is a conversation based on not only our time in the market, what we're seeing on the ground level, our ground floor day to day in our real estate business, being busy realtors in the city of Vancouver, but also from the conversations we've had this year with exceptional people.

[SPEAKER_00]: and in doing a deep dive into a variety of different stats that we've pulled for this episode to kind of substantiate the trends that we're seeing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so if you're interested in trends, stats, while the entertaining anecdotes, [SPEAKER_01]: Stay tuned.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is.

[SPEAKER_01]: We got you covered.

[SPEAKER_01]: We got you covered today.

[SPEAKER_01]: Short, but sweet year interview 2025 and Adam's predictions for 2026.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, you know what?

[SPEAKER_00]: We are now should just like we said.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're now just the week before Christmas.

[SPEAKER_00]: We are not back until the second week of January.

[SPEAKER_00]: So there's a few weeks here where we won't have an episode.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we do want to say we're just going to jump straight into this conversation.

[SPEAKER_00]: But well, we got you.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you so much for listening this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for sharing the podcast.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's been another great year.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're coming up on our 500th episode, truly humbled by everybody who's been a part of this show over the years.

[SPEAKER_00]: And a decade, Matt, of making this show every single week.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, we really appreciate you and we hope everybody has a great time with family and friends.

[SPEAKER_00]: Don't drink and drive and enjoy your time off.

[SPEAKER_01]: So Adam, we're here, episode 499 in the last year of 2025.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're headed out of town, so we'll timestamp it.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's the first week of December in case something dramatic changes in the next week or so.

[SPEAKER_01]: Basically, we're going to go over a couple trends that occurred over the course of 2025 and kind of talk through them.

[SPEAKER_01]: I just wanted to start though, because we did something similar last year, and I feel like us and most people we were speaking to at this time last year thought 2025 was going to there felt like there's momentum in November 2024.

[SPEAKER_01]: December 2024, and I feel like everyone seemed to think 2025 was going to be us emerging from a two-year slowdown or two-and-a-half-year slowdown, and it's been anything but Adam.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, so let's just jump in here to some of the trends we've seen over the last, we'll call it 11 months.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and I mean, we should we should start Matt for sure saying that some of this is from being on the ground.

[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, we're selling a lot of real estate in the city of Vancouver and surrounding areas.

[SPEAKER_00]: However, we also did a deep dive in the stats.

[SPEAKER_00]: So in a variety of different stats that we follow and monitor, they're produced by the board BCRA, also different brokerages that are producing stats like for example, rainy systems has really great.

[SPEAKER_00]: great stats that they're putting forward.

[SPEAKER_00]: So this is a deep dive into all the stats and what's been happening in our in just watching and monitoring the markets this year in our business as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: So let's jump into the first one.

[SPEAKER_00]: So 2025 was a deep volume slowdown one of the weakest years in decades.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's underline that out of them because like I said, we started this year thinking we're coming out of a two and a half year slowdown largely led with increases to interest rates and twenty twenty five was one of the weakest years when it comes to sales volume in decades okay 16.6% below the five year [SPEAKER_01]: average in terms of sales.

[SPEAKER_01]: All property types have have under performed their their five year norms, detached down 20% town homes down 13.2% condos down 15.6% in terms of sales volume.

[SPEAKER_01]: 2025 in my mind was really a recession when it comes to sales volumes or or transactions [SPEAKER_00]: Right, yeah, deeper than 2023 and 2024, which we've obviously talked a lot about on the show.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, the second thing that really appeared, like consistent, I would say, when we were kind of reviewing the stats is just that inventory remained high all year, but there was limited absorption and you had active listings up 14.4% year over year.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had listings 36% above the 10 year November average this month.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so we saw this trend of supply being built up, demand staying soft the entire year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, I was saying that when before we push record here, there was a great tagline that was put up by, I think it was REBGV, where they said it was like the perfect buyers market and no buyer showed up.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I mean, what better conditions for buyers do you see where you have a lot of selection with very little absorption?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, well, well, this is it, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, somebody said that there needs to be a psychological shift to generate some momentum in this market.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I feel like it hasn't come with lower interest rates.

[SPEAKER_01]: It hasn't come with this idea that we're kind of at the bottom of.

[SPEAKER_01]: they interest rates cycle most people think.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not going to get much better.

[SPEAKER_01]: And yet we're seeing 35% above in terms of inventory levels above the 10 year average and sales ratios hovering around 10 to 12% depending on [SPEAKER_01]: on the market.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of an incredible moment.

[SPEAKER_01]: What about prices at them?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because, you know, one thing that I think everybody was expecting, especially people that kind of got into the real state market as prices ran up.

[SPEAKER_01]: I've been thinking about this a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: One thing that happened, say, through 2014 through, you know, with the exception of 2018, 2019, but through 2022 was when prices went up, it was like, [SPEAKER_01]: immediate right you'd see jumps 3% month over month 5% month over month you know i often cited 2017 in the condo market downtown where we did 30% in a year the same has not been the case when it comes to prices declining like mid 2022 we saw interest rates shoot up i think everybody was thinking okay we're gonna start seeing some pretty significant [SPEAKER_01]: price declines, 2022 didn't materialize, 2023 didn't really materialize, 2024 didn't really materialize.

[SPEAKER_01]: What about 2025?

[SPEAKER_01]: Where are we at when it comes to to price, price changes, price corrections, whatever you want to call it?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and I mean, obviously the trend is downward pressure on pricing, but it seems to be like a controlled reduction in price versus a crash, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like it doesn't seem to be, we're not losing 20% over six months or something like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had the composite HP either house price index or home price index, [SPEAKER_00]: 3.9% year over year, declined 3.9% year over year.

[SPEAKER_00]: To attach was down 4.3%, condos down 5.2% year over year and town homes down 4.4% year over year.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I guess when you actually think about it, these are averages.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you have to think about, there's definitely going to be submarkets or product type where we're seeing prices come off substantially more than this.

[SPEAKER_00]: But still, it suggests a market resiliency that we've seen in Vancouver over the last two decades.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we'll get into submarkets, you know, markets that are outperforming some that are seem to be the weakest links in the region.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm looking at you, South Burnaby.

[SPEAKER_01]: But before we get to that, let's talk about this controlled kind of price compression, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because one of the things.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's hard without, it's hard because it's anecdotal at this point, but one of the things I've been thinking about is we've seen this kind of slow, slight decline like the numbers you're talking about, you know, 3.9% that's not a huge deal when it comes to price declines.

[SPEAKER_01]: But very recently, we've seen some sales that make you wonder if things are accelerating.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it makes me think of a theory you put forward about watching detached homes.

[SPEAKER_01]: on the west side that he is kind of the key component to understanding where a lot of the markets going and outline it here at him because I think it was a really interesting take.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, no, I mean, well, the reality is is that the Vancouver West detached market was the weakest segment of the market.

[SPEAKER_00]: So when you look at the sales ratio, it was around 9.7%, many of the detached sub-markets were down 6 to 10% year over year.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had year-to-date detached sales down about 20% below five-year norms.

[SPEAKER_00]: So [SPEAKER_00]: What we're looking at really mad is like a luxury lead correction where we're seeing kind of the top of the market being really soft and ultimately what that leads to his price compression.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you see houses on the west side start to come down in price.

[SPEAKER_00]: Say for example, something that was around 3.6 or 3.7, a high three number now of sudden selling low to mid [SPEAKER_00]: What does that do for, say, the half duplex market that's high to's like, do wheel buyers continue to buy at that price point in the half duplex market or the luxury townhome market.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you start to see people going, well, hey, maybe I can get into the detached market and also different product types like the luxury townhome or half duplex market start competing.

[SPEAKER_00]: with the single-family detached market and I think a lot of buyers if given the opportunity will go to the single-family market, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: But what you end up seeing is you see prices start to slide based on this kind of top-down approach.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, you know, we were talking about one house not to be named, but it sold very recently.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was listed at the start of the year kind of what high threes somewhere.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, 3, 7, 3, 8 and not a ridiculous analysis for a house as nice as this for sure.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we talked about this before.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is like Chicago, 1980s, Ferris Bueller wakes up in the morning and walks outside of a house that looks like this.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like this is a nice house at 3, 7, 3, 8, with a sweet, very specific reference.

[SPEAKER_01]: just sold for three to.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: So just to put like a finer point on what you're saying.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if that house with a sweetest three to two, suddenly a half two bucks a two seven five or two seven looks pretty expensive.

[SPEAKER_01]: and it could and then you just run through the market.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's like suddenly everything is prices are adjusting downward down right towards the condo market and in the condo market you have a different type of pressure right because in busier years maybe five years ago let's say 2021 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, or let's even say right now downtown, it's not unreasonable to think 40 to 50% of a building is investor owned, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: That's standard.

[SPEAKER_01]: So let's say in the entry level condo market, your market is made up of almost half investors.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, if those investors are gone, that market's cut in half.

[SPEAKER_01]: So what we've seen over the course of the year is one.

[SPEAKER_01]: downward pressure led by this luxury compression, as you call it, and then secondly, we have kind of the what the nuts and bolts of the market, the kind of entry level product where that market's kind of been hacked off at the knee.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so we got pressure coming from both sides.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and I mean, that's I think you're you're being on because I the reality is is a lot of investors have left the building as we've talked about a lot on this show so the typical kind of newer.

[SPEAKER_00]: There were a lot of people referring to them as like the dog crate condos.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's tough to get somebody to buy a small condo, junior one bed with a linear kitchen right now and put a tenant in there.

[SPEAKER_00]: Mostly because people are concerned that, you know, where they used to think, well, maybe I'll maybe I'll make a decent cap gain or some capital appreciation on this.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's not confidence that that will happen.

[SPEAKER_00]: In many cases, you're not going to be cash flow positive on a property like this.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to hear, you're lucky if you can find something that's going to basically be in today's interest rates environment, be like cash flow neutral, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And you're very, definitely.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you're realistically probably thinking, you know, $500 to $1,000 into this condo month over months.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's a tough sell.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I mean, a lot of these people that have bought pre-sale in the last few years, small one beds that are trying to now liquidate them are in a really challenging position.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we see that.

[SPEAKER_00]: We see that in areas where a lot of development happened a lot of concrete high-rise is like Burnaby where you can look at like a new building that completes and there's maybe 30, 40 units that are virtually identical and sellers are going through a bit of a race to the bottom like what what's going to actually get this sold and what price does it have to be at so as people undercutting each other.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the thing that, you know, in other markets, you know, people would be thinking this is a fantastic situation to be a buyer.

[SPEAKER_01]: The challenge there is one.

[SPEAKER_01]: where are we right this is the big question like again going back to levels of inventory being where they're at when do we actually kind of pull out of this this cycle we're in and even if you put a tenant in there we're 10% off on rents right so you know the rents don't make it all that exciting either so the common thing we've been hearing lately is you know even for people that are looking at some of the smaller condos [SPEAKER_00]: It's that question of M.I.

[SPEAKER_00]: catching a falling knife, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And when there's that much inventory that's sitting in the market or sitting on the market, I think there is, in some cases, if you feel like you can't carve out the right deal, certain people will move to the sidelines.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely.

[SPEAKER_01]: And this is, you know, thinking of condos, they saw the largest year over year decline, region wide, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: And in sub, some sub markets, I think, this is a much, a much more dramatic story, but region wide, of course, as you mentioned the HPI down 5.2% year over year, condos sales, tracking just under 14,000.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's down almost 16%.

[SPEAKER_01]: versus the five-year average.

[SPEAKER_01]: So dramatic slowdown in condo sales.

[SPEAKER_01]: And again, I think you were right to highlight the junior one bed.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would say the two-bed condo that's kind of family friendly, that's a totally different story.

[SPEAKER_01]: But if you go to a series city center right now and isolate for smaller one beds or junior one beds, that's something else entirely.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's put it that way.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and I feel like the, you know, we've talked about this on this show in a lot of agents of the echoed this talking just about what what's selling in people's listings, but it's it's really that and this is coming up on the next point.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's kind of a lot of entry level and user product that's been selling and that makes sense from that condo perspective too.

[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of people that want to get into the market, the 460 square foot one bed is maybe not that appealing, especially if they have other options, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the strongest product this year was were town homes and they actually held up better than the detached market.

[SPEAKER_00]: They also held up better than the condo market.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that makes a lot of sense like we've been talking about, you know, like, let's just think about the east side and the west side of Vancouver, realistically on the east side, if you're going out shopping for a livable house, you know, that might have like three bedrooms for a family, you're probably looking one nine and up, right, realistically for something that's nice and livable in most cases, if you want to be in a fairly established area, you know, a good location on the west side.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's, that's, uh, depending, but a lot of people for like a family home would be looking to three to four million bucks, right, that would typically be there is stuff now in, uh, in the high twos, but realistically a lot of people for like the three bedroom home, you're probably over three million bucks, so a lot of people that are in living in the city of Vancouver.

[SPEAKER_00]: they've changed their their kind of dream property to town homes.

[SPEAKER_00]: So a ground oriented homes like a townhouse that would like maybe have three bedrooms, but you can buy it for 1.3 or 1.4.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's dramatic, dramatic savings to be in a town home.

[SPEAKER_00]: And much more realistic.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's very much missing middle product which we've talked about a lot on this show.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so it's no surprise that this has been a product that has remained stable in this market.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think we're seeing that in the stats.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like the Tauno's HPI was down slightly year over year around 4%.

[SPEAKER_00]: Year to date, Tauno sales were down the least in terms of sales volume, only at around 13%.

[SPEAKER_00]: So a more stable market submarket.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he's right.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think to highlight the missing middle is is right.

[SPEAKER_01]: These are people that are working and living in Vancouver and moving through the market.

[SPEAKER_01]: The other thing is, you know, the buyer profile for the town home are people that often it's not their first property.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's right thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: So they're already quote unquote on the property ladder.

[SPEAKER_01]: The second thing is usually they're moving for life reasons right in a way that I feel like that entry level condo it doesn't really track the same way and let's just say the detached market is detached from from a lot of the [SPEAKER_01]: the local purchasers.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's people that, you know, having a second kid getting married.

[SPEAKER_01]: Whatever it is, life doesn't necessarily stop and, you know, you need to make moves for your family and those are the people that are transacting in 2025 for the most part, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: So, so it totally, totally tracks, totally makes sense.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, another trend, Adam, just to, and we've kind of [SPEAKER_01]: Usually, the Vancouver market has very distinct pattern.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the busy spring, the solar summer, the busy fall, and then slower as we get near the end of the year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And what struck me was that sales ratios were kind of almost felt uniform and uniformly low, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: The entire year kind of soft conditions dominated.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, [SPEAKER_01]: the overall sales ratio for the year, kind of a composite 12.6 percent, which depending on who you talk to, I feel like that might enter balanced territory, but I feel like this is a firm buyer's market detached.

[SPEAKER_01]: As you might guess, was lower at 9.7 percent for the region, [SPEAKER_01]: But again, if you take that overall sales ratio, we're talking just over one out of every 10 homes, selling over the course of the entire year, which is as one can imagine when you put it in those terms, very challenging to get a homes sold.

[SPEAKER_01]: You have to be providing or demonstrating kind of exceptional and exceptional value proposition.

[SPEAKER_01]: and an exceptional time to buy for home buyers because you're literally, it's like it's a totally different challenge from a couple years ago.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're actually waiting through 10 homes to find one that stands out and that makes for some exceptional buying opportunities.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it was striking how we didn't really deviate from those levels all year long.

[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, buyers had leverage sellers had to adjust and and we saw sellers adjust.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, days on market.

[SPEAKER_00]: So how long properties were listed was up around 20% year over year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And this was, uh, this was like a new reality for sellers.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, in Vancouver, it was almost, uh, you know, in years prior.

[SPEAKER_00]: If your home didn't sell on a weekend, it was broken, you know, and we used to stick with you guys on day nine.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, exactly.

[SPEAKER_00]: We used to talk about that.

[SPEAKER_00]: And now people are getting used to cancel relis and being on the property for being on the market for for longer periods of time and fires are seeing that.

[SPEAKER_00]: And like I say, they were like we just we just highlighted when you have one out of ten homes selling every month and a [SPEAKER_00]: and a given submarket, you have to be competitively priced, or you have to have an exceptional tier one property, which are still selling relatively quickly.

[SPEAKER_00]: But buyers, I mean, it's got to be a real box ticker.

[SPEAKER_00]: So Matt, the other thing we wanted to highlight, there was a few other things here.

[SPEAKER_00]: One is that [SPEAKER_00]: for the sub-markets across the region, year over year price change kind of diverged wildly.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so this is like to me what this says is location location.

[SPEAKER_00]: It really, really matters where you are in the region because we saw some resilient markets, some real blue chip markets, and then we saw some places that were really lagging.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, location location there's another there's a couple other ways to look at it in my mind like you know pit metals detached is down almost 10% Twason detached is down over 9% you know if I had to kind of the What the kind of shoot first ask questions later analysis there is markets that [SPEAKER_01]: That just exploded during the COVID run up, you know, some of those gains are are disappearing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Interestingly enough, you know, let's take this comparison East van detached down almost 7% right 6.9% South Burnaby down over 10% [SPEAKER_01]: for the year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Whereas North Van basically flat, port moody, basically flat, I have a theory is thinking about why South Burnaby say an East Van has lost so much more value in general than port moody or North Van.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it actually works better with port moody.

[SPEAKER_01]: Do you want me to lay it out for you that?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, lay it out.

[SPEAKER_01]: Here's my take.

[SPEAKER_01]: of thinking about this because what why on earth does it make sense south burner be uh c such a decline when port moody basically is a is a much more durable market and is basically flat for the year twenty twenty five at same thing with east fan and here's what i've come up with and this is i came up with this on the fly today so holes likely can be poked through this analysis but if you go to a place like port moody you'll see houses from the nineties [SPEAKER_01]: really nice communities to raise a family and turn key houses.

[SPEAKER_01]: Whereas if you are looking near in Burnaby South, Metro Town, a large swath of East Vancouver, we're talking kind of tear downs, right, or houses that, you know, if you have two kids in a dog, you look at angle, [SPEAKER_01]: It looks like a project and at least in my experience saying East Van, the nice houses, the houses where you can literally, you know, on physician day you get to keys you move in and you go back to regular life and a new house for you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those type of houses are still selling and the values are still very similar to last year's values the year before.

[SPEAKER_01]: Take here is that it's the tear downs, you know, the 1922 house.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I just saw one of these.

[SPEAKER_01]: It started at one seven and it's got a footprint of like 830 square feet or something like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Has the same owner's been there since 71.

[SPEAKER_01]: Basically needs to be knocked down.

[SPEAKER_01]: And last year the year before would have sold for one seven and been knocked down to build a duplex.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, if those duplex builders are not buying right now, [SPEAKER_01]: It's very hard to look at that house at one seven as an end user and think this makes sense for me to take this on either to rental or to live in and you know we're seeing you know that house specifically one seven dropped to one six dropped to one five and and at one five I think I think it probably moved I didn't I know there were offers coming in but the point being at them [SPEAKER_01]: I think South Burnaby and East Van are probably showing the stats are kind of skewed because of essentially those tear down properties and there's so many of them.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's so many kind of unlivable houses that where you really have to drop the prices right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not necessarily a sign of all houses East Van.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a sign of a specific type that is plentiful.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if I fully agree.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, but it's an interesting theory.

[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like if you go to, um, so you're saying like end users that are not finding the type of properties that they want in same markets like the side or South Burnaby are going to markets that will cater to them with like a newer turnkey product.

[SPEAKER_01]: No, no, no, no, not at all.

[SPEAKER_01]: Not at all.

[SPEAKER_00]: What I'm saying is, oh, you're saying the amount of new product.

[SPEAKER_00]: I get it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, nicer like a 1998 house in port moody is retaining its value because it's it's literally, you know, a part from a maybe a minor renovation, but it's basically a turn key house and there's not the tear down product.

[SPEAKER_01]: which, you know, we've talked about on the show before.

[SPEAKER_01]: Grand View Woodland's, for instance, you'll look at the inventory and go, wow, there's 86 houses listed and only three are ones you'd liveable.

[SPEAKER_01]: You'd think to live in.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's the rest that are not liveable have seen significant declines.

[SPEAKER_01]: And because of that, and the same thing in South Bernabey, it's definitely the same kind of environment or similar to East Van, so in both of those environments, you'll see huge slides like South Bernabey 10% it's like why would port moody, you know different demographics for sure.

[SPEAKER_01]: different locations, obviously different communities, different fields.

[SPEAKER_01]: But does it really make sense that port moody would be basically flat and south burnaby would be the client have a 10% decline in the last year?

[SPEAKER_01]: Other than what I put forward?

[SPEAKER_00]: No, and you know what I think the the other thing that that makes sense about that is right now very few people it's in rising markets a lot of people are willing to either build or to invest a substantial amount of money into a renovation, right, because you're you're not concerned the market's going up it should offset your renovation you might even be up from doing the renovation or from obviously from the build and so so that's an exciting time to renovate right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's a real fear of getting caught overspending on a renovation, well, a market is in decline, and now you're left with something that you've put two and a half million bucks into it, and it's worth 2.1 in the market.

[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.

[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: Here's an interesting one.

[SPEAKER_00]: Bowen Island up 3.1 percent in the detached market.

[SPEAKER_00]: Whistler condos up 10.6 percent.

[SPEAKER_00]: the other one was uh...

pampered in single family homes uh...

sort of hamburger squamish squamish yeah squamish yeah and i mean so the sea the sky corridor is uh...

obviously doing really well we referenced that we talked about this few weeks back but we actually had this on the podcast when the report came out this was a few years ago [SPEAKER_00]: I think it was Sotheby's.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just going from memory, but had a study of all the various ski resorts, like global ski resorts that are on par with like Whistler.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the argument was that on a price per foot basis Whistler was significantly undervalued when you look at [SPEAKER_00]: just kind of best in class ski resorts.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, does whistle still have a long way to go to kind of catch up in that context, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: We think of whistle as very expensive in the Canadian context, but in the global context, you know, how does it fare?

[SPEAKER_00]: So, yeah, so I guess another kind of big story of the year or trend of the year is really there's lots of markets that are it's hard to make generalizations about this market at all as we know and there's lots of markets kind of operating independently so really knowing what's happening in the market you got to drill down on the stats.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely a couple that come to mind then Vancouver as we've talked about on the show kids and fair view kids and fair view blue chip true blue chip.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, those are those have seen all things considered pretty pretty decent years not a bad place to to be selling a property.

[SPEAKER_01]: So Adam here's a question and I don't even know where we at here are we well 30 30 minutes in this is kind of right in the sweet spot.

[SPEAKER_01]: I got a question for you to end the show and we started it by saying in the last year we were cautiously optimistic about 2025.

[SPEAKER_01]: We've had three years of price declines, the last being 2025, I'd say being the most dramatic.

[SPEAKER_01]: We have 35% above the 10 year average in terms of inventory levels heading into 2026.

[SPEAKER_01]: We have stubbornly low sales ratios and sales volume.

[SPEAKER_01]: What I would describe as a fragile buyer sentiment, there's definitely no urgency at this stage.

[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, New Year, New Me, what's your take to market?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think I mean, I guess I kind of have to review in the stats and thinking about a lot of the conversations we had this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's interesting because over the last call it decade or so, when we've been kind of monitoring the market and doing this show, [SPEAKER_00]: There's usually something that we can point to that's going to really change the sentiment, the market sentiment.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's often like, if we get a rate cut in October, things are going to start to take off or be busier.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, like it's often driven by events positive or negative that influence the market.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're right now, I think that this market has less to do with the, well, I think it has a lot to do with policy and everything else.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I think that there's just [SPEAKER_00]: lack of confidence in the market right now issue.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's a psychological issue and it's and you have to be even though I think it's a fantastic time to buy, you have to either have something that's pressing you in life to make the move or you have to be, I think, brave, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And you need to buy one other people are not buying and I think those people will be rewarded.

[SPEAKER_01]: Adam, have you ever heard beat greedy when others are fearful?

[SPEAKER_00]: I was trying hard not to say that, as we say that five times a month on this show.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I think the, you know, I think that is the, I do think those people will be rewarded that buying this market.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like look, if you're going in your buying on the west side and you're carving out a deal, you know, several hundred thousand of dollars off of where prices were, [SPEAKER_00]: Previously, and you're getting a great house in a great area in a great city and a great country, I mean, I think realistically, you'll do well, but I think what buyers have to think about, I don't think next year's going to take off, I think the years of 10, 20% per year kind of price increases, I don't think those are in our future anytime soon.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I still think that that buyer should be if they find the right product right now, you should be jumping on it because what we learn from this market is tier one has been the most stable thing you could have bought, like really, really great product, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's, you know, and I, and I, those areas like we just talked about like kits, kits has been incredibly resilient.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I mean, if you have the selection and you have the ability to be patient, [SPEAKER_00]: and wait and buy a great product.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're still going to do really well on it.

[SPEAKER_00]: And man, we've worked the flip side of this market so many times where there's 10 offers 15 offers on something.

[SPEAKER_00]: Those are horrible markets for buyers.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you just have this moment right now where, you know, like the board said, [SPEAKER_00]: the best buyer conditions missing the buyers.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think what I'm really doing is talking around the question of next year.

[SPEAKER_00]: But next year, I think the Kuzma thing, I think the Trump stuff will be will create more uncertainty in the market.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's a lot of fears around jobs and AI that isn't getting as much attention as it deserves in markets of uneasiness.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think [SPEAKER_00]: of a feeling like who knows in three years or will this, and I think it just affects everybody's kind of general job security or their feelings around their ability to make money.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, so biting off more than you can chew, getting a much larger mortgage, that sort of thing.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that is in the back of people's minds quite frankly.

[SPEAKER_00]: And yeah, so I don't see, I don't see next year, I see it being more of the same, you know, unless something really changes [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think what you kind of hit on the things I was saying to what I was thinking to watch, right, the Kusmas stuff, trade negotiations.

[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like in interest rates are it's kind of an on issue unless it's dramatic, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it will be.

[SPEAKER_01]: So there's no kind of wait for, you know, that quarter point when things are going to accelerate.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, there is a lot of pent up demand on the sidelines or has to be there has to be at this age.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, so that's one thing, you know, things can potentially change quickly.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just hard to imagine that happening at least the first half of 2026.

[SPEAKER_01]: with inventory levels where they're at.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think in a kind of optimistic scenario, we see sales volume increase, prices stabilize, and absorption take place to get back down to what Brendan Augustiner Andrew Liss would call an unhealthy level of inventory.

[SPEAKER_01]: Which is I think the first thing we need to happen to kind of change the buyer sentiment out there and it strikes me that that's going to take best case scenario five to six months if no longer so the only other thing is is when you start to I mean I think everybody who's watching the market right now [SPEAKER_00]: In myself included, at some point, the prices come down enough that people start to see the value again, right, especially people that have been watching these markets for the past, you know, five years or ten years.

[SPEAKER_00]: where, you know, it's just like, okay, I feel like this has got to be circling bottom.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm ready to jump back in.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so, I mean, there's, there is that component that's like, you know, just outside of the other things that we've discussed.

[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.

[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of less optimistic take than a year ago, Adam, but if history shows us anything, we'll be wrong.

[SPEAKER_01]: We get it wrong.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I was going to say so actually this might be this might be the ring a ding ding by time sign There were around 12.26 to not an area at a coal mine exactly.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, maybe we'll leave it there and see on the other side and Yeah, I think that was all right [SPEAKER_01]: So there you have it folks.

[SPEAKER_01]: Our discussion, all things, 20, 25 a year.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I don't know if I'll miss it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like it was a good year in many ways.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm thinking real estate wise.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm excited for 2026.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think we covered kind of the major trance there and had a lot of fun doing it.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, again, thank you very much.

[SPEAKER_00]: If I think back, go ahead, sorry, I cut you off.

[SPEAKER_01]: No, it's just to say, thanks for joining me on that exciting journey.

[SPEAKER_00]: If I think about what will be, [SPEAKER_00]: really when I reflect back outside of you know family and kids and everything else.

[SPEAKER_00]: But this year AI really I feel like I got punched in the face by AI this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I feel I think a lot of people did like it went from being like you know like not there to there on so many levels like it just it accelerated so quickly and maybe that's been two years but I feel like 2025 was a real ramp up, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: genuinely feel, you know, you see like these, the layoffs, a lot of companies or tech are making fairly large layoffs.

[SPEAKER_01]: It does give this kind of eerie sense of uncertainty at general unease about the future, but I'm still optimistic about 2026, and I'm optimistic that we're going to have a [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and TBD, we haven't announced the guests yet because we're just waiting on their confirmation, but it will be a fantastic show.

[SPEAKER_00]: I did want to say the one thing I, you know, I feel like I might have left on a on a sour note, they're about to market next year, but in reality, I am optimistic and I need to remind, I think I need to remind people that when you, you know, just balance in the market's not a bad thing in the Vancouver market.

[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, [SPEAKER_00]: Hey, what's wrong with that in terms of affordability?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like if we move to the patterns of a regular market, and I just was kind of meeting like, you know, I think I don't think we're going to take off like a rocket ship or something like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think there's a lot of still, a lot of headwinds out there.

[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, I just, I think it's going to be, I hope more balance comes to the market for sellers.

[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, I mean, I think realistically, there's no formal matter.

[SPEAKER_01]: No formal.

[SPEAKER_01]: No formal right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we'll see when it reemerges because it will at some point.

[SPEAKER_01]: But the the question is when.

[SPEAKER_01]: What else do we got out of?

[SPEAKER_01]: I think nothing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's get back to the what are you on the Nick Koi Peninsula right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'm in the future me is.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not there yet.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm in Vancouver, but I will be when this is released.

[SPEAKER_01]: So Absolutely.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, hopefully you're enjoying your time.

[SPEAKER_01]: If anybody wants to chat about this or anything else, of course we have Vancouver Real Estate Podcast.com.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're all things real estate related live.

[SPEAKER_01]: We have our buyers resources.

[SPEAKER_01]: We have our sellers resources.

[SPEAKER_01]: We have our back catalog.

[SPEAKER_01]: Also, if you find any value in the show, [SPEAKER_01]: like subscribe or share share with a friend or a family member that's a fantastic happy new year Merry Christmas happy holidays and we will be back again next year if you want to talk about any of this try me at 778-847-8554 or Matt Advancouverial stepacast.com [SPEAKER_00]: where you can try Matt.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll be around in the new year.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's right.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm I'm holding the fourth down.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, that's it.

[SPEAKER_01]: That or info at Vancouver Real Estate podcast.com, which of course is our co-como line, which I think you came up with last time you were on the co-como.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, you know what, and again, I can't say can't express enough, but really appreciate everybody joining us this year over the year and getting the market updates and next year is going to be a banger of a year for the podcast and they can't wait to have more guests and recurring guests and friends of the show on for some more insights so can't wait take care be safe and we'll see in 2026.

[SPEAKER_00]: Wow, 2026.

[SPEAKER_00]: Your God will save you for radio.

[SPEAKER_00]: Subscribe today.