[SPEAKER_03]: Hello, and welcome to future projection episode 140 of the show.

[SPEAKER_03]: I am Carlos Clauseo, joined by Ben Badler as always.

[SPEAKER_03]: What's going on, Ben?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, play off baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: We got Jupiter.

[SPEAKER_01]: We got what's one more week until the scouting dead period.

[SPEAKER_01]: But no, no dead period for us, Carlos, prospect handbook.

[SPEAKER_01]: Work is in full swing.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I just finished up top 10 of my bravest list.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm going to be moving into top 10 of my Guardians list now.

[SPEAKER_03]: Looking at some video from Jupiter, from guys like Jacob brother and Peter Flaherty who are down there and Florida for us watching that event.

[SPEAKER_03]: Fortunately, we did not have a hurricane come through.

[SPEAKER_03]: And mess up the schedule for that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's a hurricane.

[SPEAKER_01]: And there's probably a good chance.

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll have one at some point.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's Florida in October over the next like few years.

[SPEAKER_01]: Do they get MLB?

[SPEAKER_01]: Which is grandfather in Jupiter for the scouting dead period.

[SPEAKER_01]: If they had to move it back like they've done.

[SPEAKER_03]: previously up at they would like like grandfather Jupiter into as and say you can go scout it if that's yeah Like what's a there's like a hurricane?

[SPEAKER_01]: They're like hey, we got to move Jupiter back a week because of weather and Why we said I would they?

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know why would MLB you know I would like to be [SPEAKER_01]: I think they want to I think that I think it's such a valuable event for Scout that they would just say and I like we'll make this one exception for jubber, which was previously scheduled for a week earlier with that.

[SPEAKER_03]: What's the point in the dates then?

[SPEAKER_03]: because you're not really grandfathering it in at that point.

[SPEAKER_03]: You're just saying, hey, if things get delayed, you can so go to it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think, well, whatever term you want, if you don't like the grandfather or term, if you want to make a special exception for Jupiter, I bet they would.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's hope we don't have to test it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, hopefully not.

[SPEAKER_03]: But we last year we had that happen.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I think we were all going to go down to Jupiter last year and then Hurricane King through.

[SPEAKER_03]: And a lot of Mr.

Edwards are up here.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, man, it'll be interesting to see, I don't know, have you heard any more feedback from people that you're talking to on the scouting dead period?

[SPEAKER_03]: I continue to mostly hear positive things, like just hearing from some scouts who had fairly brutal schedules previously, just with a lot of workouts and stuff teams are doing, like a lot of guys sounds like are excited that they can now have a little bit more of a calm.

[SPEAKER_03]: off-season period.

[SPEAKER_03]: I've not gotten too much direct pushback from from scouts, at least none that I've talked to, who are like, I really hate this dead period, but I'm not sure if you're hearing different.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, from a lifestyle perspective, I mean, that was one of the advantages that we talked about is okay, well, we're not allowing anybody to, I wouldn't say work, we're not allowing anybody to really travel and see players do anything so, okay, you get a little bit of a break.

[SPEAKER_01]: I do know some teams have set up workouts with guys for 20, 28 beyond that just to get looks at those guys and start doing some homework.

[SPEAKER_01]: on them again it's not like a big showcase setting or anything like that it's all right let's go to this guy's facility and watch him hit or just get some eyes on him there because we're not allowed to go see players who are you know for the 20 26 or 20 27 drafts yet yeah [SPEAKER_03]: We also have Arizona fall League starting up, but like I got going this week.

[SPEAKER_03]: We got Josh Norse out there.

[SPEAKER_03]: Jesus cano out there, build Mitchell out there on the B.A.

[SPEAKER_03]: side of things.

[SPEAKER_03]: I've already seen some some video players.

[SPEAKER_03]: They know a spino getting back on the mound.

[SPEAKER_03]: That was pretty exciting to see just given.

[SPEAKER_03]: the amount of time he's missed, the injuries that he's had to deal with, what he's gone through as a player, but AFL, Infulfill Swing, one of the more hyped leagues, I would say, in terms of just prospect development and attention that is on this league from just prospect hounds in general.

[SPEAKER_03]: I know Josh, obviously with us who goes out there every year loves the Arizona fall league.

[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you, you're underselling Josh's feeling.

[SPEAKER_03]: He would want to extend it full year, live out there year round, and just the airs in a fall league and Mongolian grill, I think that'd be his dream life.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think as a scout, it's certainly a convenient way to see a lot of prospects in person in a centralized location, one to two games every day.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can see going there for a week.

[SPEAKER_01]: You see a lot of players.

[SPEAKER_01]: You get a lot of bang for your book.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know today how much it really matters as far as what happened.

[SPEAKER_01]: What might happen there in terms of changing our opinions, or changing our evaluations and our projections for players.

[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think it can move the needle a lot for players?

[SPEAKER_03]: I think I'm here is why you don't think it matters because I feel like it doesn't matter, but why you're maybe a little lower on the impact it can have because I feel like it does seem like every year we have rosters release and there are a lot of like really high profile prospects are going to be at the event and then the event actually gets started the league actually get started and there are a lot of [SPEAKER_03]: high profile players that are not actually going to be there.

[SPEAKER_03]: So that's just a little disappointing.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think there are a ton of, there's a ton of utility just with the number of rule five eligible players who are playing in the league.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like, there are always a lot of these, like kind of org type or fringe top 30 type pictures in particular who are going to the Arizona fall league and whether it's just like a trial period for teams to say, okay, do we want to protect this [SPEAKER_03]: There are always going to be cases like a spino where you have a player who's injured or didn't get to play a ton and it's just another opportunity to give them some reps and game competition.

[SPEAKER_03]: The setup itself, like mixed mixed teams is just kind of interesting.

[SPEAKER_03]: So yeah, I don't think that I have a strong opinion one way or another for me, it's just like, [SPEAKER_03]: Another piece of data, another thing to look at in reference, maybe if you had a player who played the entire season and played in the Arizona fall league and looked pretty worn down that's understandable and it maybe wouldn't change too much of what I was thinking about a player.

[SPEAKER_03]: But at the same time, like, [SPEAKER_03]: There are always going to be guys who, for whatever reason, just you didn't get to see them as much in the regular season, so the Arizona fall league is a good time to just get eyes on them, see how maybe bodies have changed, see if there's a mechanical change with the hitter, see if a pitcher is throwing different stuff, if he's making improvements in control and command, it just feels like it's another piece of the puzzle to me.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, for the guys who played all season, we just saw them play for five months, if they [SPEAKER_01]: 50 at bats.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's where I feel like I don't know is anything really going to change if they have a great month or or just struggle for a month.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think for most guys, it doesn't make that much of a difference, but I think there are certain categories of players where it is more meaningful.

[SPEAKER_01]: One of them that you said is, you know, just players who were coming off injuries, who we just didn't see much of [SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, Daniel Espino with the Guardians being one who we're going beyond just one season.

[SPEAKER_01]: We haven't seen him barely at all in the last few years.

[SPEAKER_01]: Louis Parallel is a pitcher with the Red Sox coming back now from Tommy John Surgery.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we haven't seen him.

[SPEAKER_01]: uh, barely at all in the last year, it sounds like he's back to throw in triple digits, um, price-cunningham with the Yankees, spent some time on the introblest this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: We didn't see a ton of him during the season, uh, because I thought it was pretty good, but, uh, it'll be good to see more of him.

[SPEAKER_01]: At the same time, if these got like a Luis Parales comes back or certainly Daniel Espino, [SPEAKER_01]: If those guys come back and they're struggling with their commands, I don't know, is that I don't think it needs to be like, oh, I'm worried about this.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's more just okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, all right, let's let's see the stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: What see what this stuff looks like.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's certainly like in the paralysis case early on looks like it's there.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's a good thing to see.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's interesting.

[SPEAKER_01]: The A's did it last year with Nick Kurtz.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think this year there are too many names that I saw.

[SPEAKER_01]: I know the Nationals have Ethan Petrie there, 49th overall pick from South Carolina.

[SPEAKER_01]: So these guys were okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: We saw them in the college season and maybe they got their feet wet in the minor leagues.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're just getting a bit more pro data on those players.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it can be valuable too.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, definitely more just more data that you can get on the amateur players, especially if they're players who don't have a ton of it from the colleges and even just saying, like, would that add a versus the the metal butt data from college?

[SPEAKER_03]: I think it's useful.

[SPEAKER_03]: But yeah, I think it's mostly exciting to see.

[SPEAKER_03]: The specific profile is like pitcher coming off an injury, pitcher who hasn't thrown much recently, and like Josh has full video of Daniel Spino's debut, so just getting to see him back on the mound was awesome, like he was sitting 97 miles per hour, touch 99, apparently the cutter looked quite good at times.

[SPEAKER_03]: Probably kind of what you would expect in terms of like the amount of crispness to the command that he had at this point, but I mean, [SPEAKER_03]: I'm sure there were people who had written Daniels being off entirely as a prospect, just given the number of injuries.

[SPEAKER_03]: He had sustained the specific kinds, the shoulder issues that he's had.

[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, this has got to revitalize his prospect stock in some capacity, just the fact that he's out there throwing and you're still seeing upper 90s velocity from him.

[SPEAKER_01]: the position players, I like looking to at the guys who are really getting their first taste of the upper levels.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're facing upper level players, I should say, so the rays have a Browler Guerrero outfielder there, the Marlins.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's the youngest player in the fall of the grain.

[SPEAKER_01]: I believe so.

[SPEAKER_01]: I believe he is, um, the Marlons said, uh, Starland Cobb, other shortstop and, and PJ Morelando and outfielder, uh, and he and Morelando missed time with injuries too, but these are two guys who were, uh, in April.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, all right, they're going to be facing, uh, [SPEAKER_01]: double a triple a arms there for the first time if they struggle okay like I'd probably expect all three guys to not hit all that well given that they just I mean none of them had like great seasons this year I mean Guerrero is probably the one guy of that group where I could see just a strength and power that he has being able to do some damage out there in the folly but if those guys do have a good folly I think that can be [SPEAKER_01]: You know, I don't want to go overboard on the folly, but those are the guys who are more interested rather than seeing, oh, like Kevin McGonagall or any, you know, some other hitter who's been in double a AAA all season, you know, it takes another 50 at bats, we saw all year and I don't know if that changes a ton for me.

[SPEAKER_03]: What do you think about a player like Sever King who, by most metrics, I mean, did not have a very good here.

[SPEAKER_03]: We have real questions just about like what he's going to be able to do offensively the approach.

[SPEAKER_03]: He spent 45 games in high A with Wilmington, then he spent 80 games in AA with Harrisburg.

[SPEAKER_03]: really struggled at the double A level.

[SPEAKER_03]: So far, in the years of no fall league, it's only been two games, but they've been two good games for him, at least results wise, he's four for nine, he's got a home run, he's got a double, a couple of singles, like how quickly or at all would you like change, maybe not change your mind, but how much of a [SPEAKER_03]: How much do you think you could change your mind for a player like that, given the competition and the fall league, like how would you compare it to the amount of double I'd pitching that he saw over the course of the season?

[SPEAKER_01]: I think the 80 games that we saw from him in double A is going to trounce anything that we're going to see in the AFL.

[SPEAKER_01]: He could have a really good AFL.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just, you know, it's a quick look.

[SPEAKER_01]: you know you can see guys do you know if you see guy make a mechanical change or is doing something meaningfully different okay that's one thing particularly with silver king the thing that you're looking for with him is to make better swing decisions because he just swings and chases too many p- he swings too much and he chases too many pitches outside the strike zone [SPEAKER_01]: that that that'll that'll be the key thing to look at him look for with him not just in the folly but obviously all season next year so if that's better okay that's a positive sign but I think that the much larger sample size that we have with him over [SPEAKER_01]: You know, 357 plate appearances in AA and 551 plate appearances total is going to pretty strongly outweigh anything that we might see in the AFL.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: But the good thing with the AFL too is that we have statcast data now for pretty much every game.

[SPEAKER_01]: out there, so I think that's especially for the public, that's a great thing that MLB is having that wired up at all the games and making that public just for everybody.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it'll see, because we can just shoot somebody a message, can you send me this or that, but to have that out there for everybody, I think it's a very good thing to have.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, agreed, no one's ever going to complain about having.

[SPEAKER_03]: more, more access to that information on all these players.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I guess we're still waiting on the maybe the quality of the the feeds and the streams to uptick, but that's kind of ever been a critique and an issue that we've had with the fall leak for those of us who are not lucky enough to be out there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is there anybody who's particularly interesting or somebody you do want to see out there to see how they do in the fall like this year?

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I mean, Hagan Smith, [SPEAKER_03]: he's out there and it sounds like the stuff has been good and I'm hopeful that at some point he is going to show better control because that's continued to be the bugaboo in the issue with him and I was such a big Hagen Smith believer coming out of his draft year.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's shown flashes of putting everything together, and I don't think anyone really doubts the quality of the stuff that comes out of his left hand But after throwing 20 starts with double-ite Birmingham and walking 6.7 batters for nine.

[SPEAKER_03]: He had 56 blocks and 75.2 innings Just like waiting to see when and if he can kind of take the step forward Control and command-wise.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think for Smith [SPEAKER_03]: in the years on a fall league, it's probably similar to what you were saying with Caver King, where even if the walks looked a lot better and so far he's done one game.

[SPEAKER_03]: He walked two of the 14 batters he faced, so not like a huge improvement in that one start right now.

[SPEAKER_03]: I probably wouldn't go overboard in terms of just being convinced that he's taken a step in the control department, but he's a pitcher who I certainly have high expectations for, and I think I've [SPEAKER_03]: the ability to throw strikes enough in the past.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think there's an adjustment in there for him to make and to just hearing about, and maybe seeing whether it's video or just on some of the data, like what the strikes are looking like.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's one.

[SPEAKER_03]: that I'm in particular pretty pretty excited about and hopeful that he can make some strides there.

[SPEAKER_03]: How about you?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I've stayed with a 2024 draft base from me Charlie Condon with the Rockies, who I was a big fan of Charlie Condon when the Rockies drafted him through an overall.

[SPEAKER_01]: and his, he did not have a good year.

[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't like terrible, I don't want to go overboard, but we haven't tucked into the, toward the back of our top 100 right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: if he didn't have his twenty twenty four season uh...

and we were just going off twenty twenty five i don't know that he we would call him a top one under guy and i don't know if he'll end up there when we put up our new top one hundred in January so i'd love to see him go out there and just a light it up [SPEAKER_01]: in the AFL, but I mean, his strikeout rate basically doubled from this year to what it was in college.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, it should go up he's facing better competition.

[SPEAKER_01]: There is power there, but it wasn't the kind of [SPEAKER_01]: power that we were seeing from him in college, but really just the swing and miss has gotten significantly higher from what we saw when he was at Georgia when he was striking out like 13% of the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: If there's six foot six, you look at him, big long, levered hitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: You expect there to be a lot of swing and miss and there just wasn't a ton of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: When he was at Georgia to go with [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, between high A and double, I like neither a level was great, again, it wasn't a total disaster, but not what you would want from the third overall pick in the draft.

[SPEAKER_03]: No, I feel like it's not been really great early returns for either of the Rockies recent topics.

[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, Charlie Condon at the struggles you just mentioned, Ethan Holiday, it's a much smaller sample, obviously, but his swing and miss was really concerning.

[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe even like, I don't know how you would couch it, just given like expectations.

[SPEAKER_03]: And obviously one player coming from the SEC in multiple years of high level college performance versus a high school player, who maybe could say the jump to Pro Ball is a little bit more extreme for him.

[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, Ethan Holliday's misrates were extremely jarring, extremely concerning in his debut.

[SPEAKER_03]: So for both those players, you're hoping that they can make some improvements in that area.

[SPEAKER_03]: So for you, is the concern for content like purely the amount of swing and miss, or that coupled with also just seeing less impact than you are maybe expecting for a player of his reputation and considering the damage he did with Georgia.

[SPEAKER_01]: a little bit of both, but more so the pure hitting ability not being as good as expected.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, so he hit 312, 431, 420, and 35 games with high A and then in 55 games in [SPEAKER_03]: the 28.3% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate.

[SPEAKER_03]: So for him, both the strikeout rate and the walk rate went in the wrong directions to a pretty significant degree when that jump came.

[SPEAKER_03]: And also he's playing a lot more first base than I would have expected him to play at this stage.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's still playing a number defensive positions, but [SPEAKER_03]: If that's pointing to maybe like he's more likely just going to be a first basement, there's even more pressure on him to just be the sort of hit or the way expected him to be.

[SPEAKER_03]: So that just makes things even trickier.

[SPEAKER_03]: I would imagine.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and not, I mean, as much as I like, Nick Kurtz in college, I would have taken Condon ahead of Kurtz, so I don't want to, I would have been taken here.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think Condon and what a whole world.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but as I was always going back and forth, it probably doesn't feel good to see Nick Kurtz go and point big later after the year that he had.

[SPEAKER_03]: Mm-hmm.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, monstrous here.

[SPEAKER_03]: Any other names who are worth watching worth monitoring or just players who are you're interested to hear how they do Yeah, I mean, I was like, you know, McConnell wall cut special wall cut with the Chronicles and Johnny Firmell.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm gonna go do nothing and I don't think I would care.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's maybe the least interesting player for me in that [SPEAKER_01]: Well, just in terms of good players if like if that's that's the best part of the fall he's being there actually like if you go to Arizona And to see the fall like that's a great experience just go and You know When it takes like us like go and see two games a day and you just see a ton of prospects all in one spot and you do see a lot of top 100 guys or [SPEAKER_01]: just guys who will be future big leaders at a very up close setting in a really calm and pretty real axe atmosphere.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I'm just kind of just scanning on the list, seeing if there's anyone else who's massively interesting to me.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think that names are hit on her.

[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe the most, no one else stands out to me.

[SPEAKER_03]: This might be Starland Kaba.

[SPEAKER_03]: I keep, he had well, his first game, if he didn't hit well, that would be [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_03]: What do you want to get to next, Ben?

[SPEAKER_01]: see what I wrote up a story on 40 well first story on 20 pitching prospects who stood out from the 2012 and a five international class of Kendrick Curio with the Royals coming to Frank with the Marlins a bunch of other guys wrote another one this week on 40 hitters from the 2025 class who were standouts from the Dominican Summer League this year and I think it's just a it's a good [SPEAKER_01]: sort of recalibrate on these guys who just signed in January where we have reports on these guys coming into the year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Guys we've heard about now for, you know, in a lot of cases, these guys were like 12 or 13 years old when they originally made their deals with teams and [SPEAKER_01]: You know, some of the guys who stood out were the guys who signed for a lot of money with a famous names for a long time like an alien on paying you with a meds or just war against all is.

[SPEAKER_01]: With the giants who's now in our top 100 already, but.

[SPEAKER_01]: other guys who are more mid-range signings guys who've jumped up since January or since they agreed to their bonuses and other guys who are much smaller bonus guys, you know, $30,000, $70,000 type signings where you see what they do in pro ball, everybody is on the same stage.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not double a competition or anything.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like that, but it's, you know, your, your, your, your, everybody's facing, you know, everybody's facing the least quality velocity, you know, pictures command is obviously very scattered and feel for secondary stuff is.

[SPEAKER_01]: very much inconsistent, but at the same time, you also see guys who post crazy high strike out rates as hitters, I should say, against some of the breaking stuff that is not so great, which is a huge red flag for me at that level.

[SPEAKER_01]: So good way to get a zoom out and get a better sense [SPEAKER_01]: You know, we've been covering these international signings for for a long time now that we have a season to DSL and our belts who are actually some of the better prospects in this group.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I guess I'll just throw that right back around and say like, who is the most exciting of these classes?

[SPEAKER_03]: They're like a single player that you feel extends above the rest.

[SPEAKER_03]: Is there a handful of players who are most excited about it?

[SPEAKER_03]: Is there like a surprise player who maybe you didn't have high expectations for and after their debut?

[SPEAKER_03]: You're kind of looking at them now and you're like, OK, something about the profile is just different or better than we expected it to be.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now, we've got a lot more information here.

[SPEAKER_03]: We've seen the player recently.

[SPEAKER_03]: We've got data.

[SPEAKER_03]: We've had scouts watching guys.

[SPEAKER_03]: I guess who are some of the initial standouts from the results of the league?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, the best player would be, Jos Harkin's always with the Giants.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, switching shortstop, a lot of scouts considered him to be the best international prospect in that 2025 class, and he certainly looked like it had said he looked even better.

[SPEAKER_01]: an advertised because he is really quick twitch athletic, explosive.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can see it just watching him take a couple ground balls at short stop.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can see it in the batters box with health fastest hands are the kind of bats speed.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's able to generate from a, you know, not that big of a guy's probably like 5, 10, 5, 11.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, maybe listed six foot, but really, really [SPEAKER_01]: damage, and you could see in the exit velocities that he was producing, that it matches the reports on the bat speed and some of the, I don't know if it's called sneaky pop for his size, but he could definitely drive the ball with some authority, even though it doesn't show up in like big home run numbers, but.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think the one thing that was better than expected was just how good of a hitter he is.

[SPEAKER_01]: Some of the concern on him coming into the season was okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he has really twitchy and tooled up and explosive.

[SPEAKER_01]: But he does have a tendency to get a little bit wild and play out of control at times.

[SPEAKER_01]: What is that going to look like in pro ball against live pitching against those arms?

[SPEAKER_01]: Is he going to expand the strike zone?

[SPEAKER_01]: Is he going to swing and miss?

[SPEAKER_01]: And that was not the case, I mean, he is actually one of the better, you know, pure back-to-ball guys in the league.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, you have a true shortstop with, you know, plus plus speed, a lot of bad speed, can drive the ball with some impact, make a lot of contact.

[SPEAKER_01]: You just checks a lot of boxes that you're looking for in a prospect.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, he certainly sounds exciting.

[SPEAKER_03]: Just the overall deal set, the performance, the profile.

[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, how would you compare him to at this stage, a guy like Eli Willitz, who the national's just made the number one overall pick in the draft, different sort of physicality.

[SPEAKER_03]: It seems like at least now, but if you were basically lining those guys up, [SPEAKER_03]: Would you have a strong preference?

[SPEAKER_03]: Do you think they're further apart on our board now than they should be?

[SPEAKER_03]: Just general thoughts on those two kind of them together.

[SPEAKER_03]: Or maybe even like talk about him versus some of the other short stops in this 2021-5 class.

[SPEAKER_03]: We got a lot of high school players to pick from there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so we have we have will let's 28 on our top 100.

[SPEAKER_01]: We have Josswar at 80 to I imagine that gap is going to narrow when we put together our offseason list because it's I always I always like to try to compare players international players to their peer group.

[SPEAKER_01]: in the States.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now for these 2025 international signings, most of their peer group would actually be like the 2026 high school class, so the great Amberson, Jacob Blumbar, Tyler's daughter.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but in Eli Willitz's case, he actually is the same age because he was in the 2026 class.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's still 17 years old.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's debatable.

[SPEAKER_01]: Tools wise, Joshua's tools are better than Eli Willitz.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's a faster runner than Willitz.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got better bat speed.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has [SPEAKER_01]: I think it has more power now in a higher power ceiling than EI Willets.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think EI Willets is baseball IQ is his game acumen is well well above average for his age.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think [SPEAKER_01]: It's not a liability for John Swirl.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's not out there making stupid decisions all the time or anything like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I just think Will is more advanced as hitters.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would have certainly said Eli Wilts is more advanced coming into the season compared to Gonzales, but now I don't know, Gonzales is at least made it more debatable.

[SPEAKER_01]: I probably still give Wilts the edge.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're two just two different types of players, but I mean, they're both the same age switching short stops.

[SPEAKER_03]: hitter yeah what stands out to me is just like even though it's only 15 games at low way like the contact ability that Eli showed in pro ball just helped kind of add some confidence to what we thought his hit tool could be now again we're still waiting on more of the power but just looking at some of the bad to ball data we have for Eli versus [SPEAKER_03]: Joss War at the relative levels they were at.

[SPEAKER_03]: I would certainly say that like what Eli did was encouraging in his pro debut again, just 15 games, so not a ton.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, but Joss War was really good too.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's where, okay, are they should they be that far apart?

[SPEAKER_01]: Our list, uh, I don't know.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I'm sure there's a confidence and defensive profile at short stop.

[SPEAKER_03]: I would do you line the two up there.

[SPEAKER_01]: uh...

i would say joss war probably ahead and just i don't really have a concerns about joss wars ability to stay at shortstop i mean he looks he's super quick a ton of rain so i'm stressed is that saying you do have some concerns about the last thing is shorter you just feel better about joss wars defense there and you think they're both shortsofts i feel i'm i'm probably more bullish on the last short than than you are but maybe i'm wrong [SPEAKER_01]: Uh, I would just say higher probability, uh, I think they can both play shortstop, but I would say higher probability of joss war playing at shortstop very little concern about him being able to stay in that position.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think the biggest surprise, at least among it, the high profile prospects, the asked about would be Juan Sanchez with the Blue Jays because he's an interesting case, too, because remember when the Blue Jays were supposed to be one of the finalists for Roki Sasaki, so like those teams, them, the Dodgers, who obviously got their class rated, [SPEAKER_01]: The pod raise teams were going out and scouting these teams committed players right before January 15th or even after January 15th, which is a really unusual situation to be having because there's a lot of [SPEAKER_01]: International scouts or international directors who don't see a lot of the top players for for a long time, leading into the signing date from from other teams.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, but in this case, there were teams that were saying, okay, well, maybe if the Blue J-Sign Rokey Suzuki, then we got a scout, want Sanchez and Christopher Polanco, or anybody else in this Blue J-S class, you might shake free just in case [SPEAKER_01]: they do sign society so we have to be prepared.

[SPEAKER_01]: And even then, I think a lot of the reports were okay, this guy has big power, but also kind of a bigger swing too.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is he going to make enough contact in...

[SPEAKER_01]: in games.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like he is a big guy that reviews on the defense were good, especially for a guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's like six, three, two, 15.

[SPEAKER_01]: So not the body type, you typically associate with a short salary moved around pretty well.

[SPEAKER_01]: But you look at him this season and I mean, [SPEAKER_01]: He certainly fits as one of the very elite hitting prospects in the DSL this year, everything, everything checked out, offensively, this concerns about was he going to make enough contact, I think, I want to say totally answer those, but he certainly made enough contact, like there wasn't a crazy amount of swing in this area, 341, 439, 565, he [SPEAKER_01]: I will get himself into trouble sometimes, swingin' at stuff outside the zone, but the actual swinging strikes themselves were pretty low, especially swingin' at stuff in the zone, which to go with the power that he does have is a really good combination.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_03]: Another hitter I want to ask you about here.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's more relevant to the guys that I'm going to be writing up, but Diego Tornès with the braves.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's an alpha that are signed for basically $2.5 million.

[SPEAKER_03]: Biggest bonus this year for Cuban player.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you look at his surface level numbers, I don't know if you'd be too impressed, but the under the hood data is really good in kind of the reporting for the Braves Handbook chapter.

[SPEAKER_03]: I've gotten basically nothing but positive feedback from people inside the organization, scouts who saw them who are not inside the organization.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's been tough sliding for me in recent years, writing about interesting hitters for the Braves because they're just so pitching dominant and [SPEAKER_03]: But between Tornez and then some of the short stops they drafted this year at the top of the draft in 25.

[SPEAKER_03]: I do feel like I have more bats to write about this year.

[SPEAKER_03]: So what are your thoughts on what Diego showed in the summer and maybe how he has changed his profile, if at all for you?

[SPEAKER_03]: Because I would say based on my assumptions of the player who's going to be, I was a little bit surprised to hear like how positive the feedback was about his defense speed [SPEAKER_03]: They sounded better than what I expected them to be like at the very beginning of this process prior to the DSL.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, defensively that was, I think when a lot of teams were scouting him, when he was 13, 14 years old, which sounds crazy to say about a kid that young, but who was on a guard?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's good, good offensive, player, but left fielder, first baseman, most likely.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then as a scientist, a closeer, it was like, wait a second, speed is getting better.

[SPEAKER_01]: His defense is getting better.

[SPEAKER_01]: He looks like a center fielder.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, we'll see how that goes once the DSL season starts.

[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, like you said, it sounded like a lot of the feedback was consistent with that with the improvement that he made defensively.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then there's definitely a split between the raw power that he has and the game power that he showed.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's surprising that he didn't hit any home runs this year because there's [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there can't be more than five, 10 players in the league, who had more raw power than him, especially for a guy who, you know, he started the season when he was 16 years old.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's one of the younger players in the league.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there were only four players in the whole league among the, at least among 20, 25 signings.

[SPEAKER_01]: So guys, his age, who had a higher 90th percentile.

[SPEAKER_01]: percentile exit velocity that him so switch hitter six foot two still more space to fill out I think I'll end up with you know plus if not double plus raw power which from a center fielder who does not [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think there's going to be some swing and miss with him.

[SPEAKER_01]: My bet is it ends up being a power overhead profile, but not, you know, crazy red flag territory type swing and miss.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's a pretty exciting profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he fits in with the, you know, not putting him in the Josswar top 100 group.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but if you, you know, the top five or so best hitting prospects in the league.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, just looking at where his 90% value be stacked up even among Braves prospects of players that I was looking at who had at least a hundred plate appearances in the minors.

[SPEAKER_03]: It was the fifth best mark and it was the best mark of any hitter in the system who was 22.

[SPEAKER_03]: or younger.

[SPEAKER_03]: So just the the impact that he's showing at his age.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like you said, he's not only in this 2025 class, but young for that class, like he's going to be playing all of next year, when he's expected to make his states add debut as like in his age 17 season, he could be a jigger in high school.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, which is kind of crazy.

[SPEAKER_03]: So just like the [SPEAKER_03]: The impact that he's shown is impressive and I would definitely expect the home run totals to start stacking up.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I would also expect him to continue playing center field, so like it's pushed off the position.

[SPEAKER_03]: I know it's coming for the braves and most teams at this point just to keep running players out at the the premium of the middle defensive positions.

[SPEAKER_03]: Even if you don't think ultimately they're going to play there like it's good for their development to to be more challenged and [SPEAKER_03]: Just like on top of just better run times, it sounded like his just the instincts defensively were really good.

[SPEAKER_03]: He might have one of the better throwing arms in the system as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like the feedback on cell-hardt he was throwing the ball was impressive too.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I think in just in terms of the brace system, which admittedly, it's a fairly low bar for haters still.

[SPEAKER_03]: He probably has the highest upside of any hitter in the system at this point, and it's also nice to get some positive early feedback from a brave international prospect because I mean, they have not had a lot of success out of the market for a while now.

[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, they had penalties obviously and just weren't able to sign players, and then it also feels like first few years.

[SPEAKER_03]: Some of the top players that they signed just haven't really penned out yet, so.

[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe Diego will be a sign of figuring things out for them and for Braise fans who were just hoping to see some reinforcements from the market, Tornado's sounds really exciting.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, on the center field, defense, I mean, Julio Rodriguez is the best example of that were.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, everybody who saw, oh, I'm not, I don't think I'm exaggerating.

[SPEAKER_01]: But like, [SPEAKER_01]: Everybody was on him as an amateur player, including the Mariners thought this guy was going to be a corner outfield there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Not I'll love Tulio or Rodrigues when he was an amateur player in the DR.

I thought he had, I mean, enormous power, big bad speed.

[SPEAKER_01]: I really liked the swing.

[SPEAKER_01]: I thought this guy could be an impact middle of the lineup, masher one day.

[SPEAKER_01]: never thought it was going to play center field.

[SPEAKER_01]: But he got faster.

[SPEAKER_01]: He worked at his defense.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, usually you guys were that size, you know, they fill out, they get wider, they get heavier.

[SPEAKER_01]: They lose a step and he was not that fast to begin with when he was, you know, 15, 16 years old.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, that's a perfect example.

[SPEAKER_01]: And a rare example too, I would say, oh, a guy who [SPEAKER_01]: be a good defensive center field or two.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, it's crazy how that can change so quickly.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, how do you stack up Diego torn as now compared to tates out the scene The short stuff the brave took out a high school this year with their first round pick [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I mean, I went into this office as an expecting to have Tate ranked above Diego on the list.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think that's where that's kind of the order currently, but it's hard to have a [SPEAKER_03]: I don't know if it's like overly intense to say, hard to have a worst debut, but Tate did not really look the part in his pro debut.

[SPEAKER_03]: He really looked over match offensively.

[SPEAKER_03]: He swung and missed a ton.

[SPEAKER_03]: He chased a ton, like both those rates were really concerning.

[SPEAKER_03]: He swung well over half the time.

[SPEAKER_03]: A lot of his balls that he did make contact with were like hit on the ground rolled over like the kind of the two silver linings for him are he did hit the ball quite hard like the exit velocity data he showed put him Sort of neck and neck with with Ethan holiday at least in terms of 90th percentile EV which I would not have expected That sort of impact for take like he is a [SPEAKER_03]: Like a smaller guy who still generates a lot of bad speed and impressive torque with his swing.

[SPEAKER_03]: So like seeing some impressive pop was not shocking, but I think the degree to which like the X-Avoila series jumps off the page was exciting, but it meant the approach has to come a long ways.

[SPEAKER_03]: It does sound like an unofficial game.

[SPEAKER_03]: He wasn't swinging him missing quite as much, but [SPEAKER_03]: on a social is in like the it's in like literally yeah just like games and actually not counting torches pro record um like just talking to some praise for what sounds like he wasn't quite as bad but they'll even acknowledge like his 47% strikeout rate or whatever it was is is concerning and so I think [SPEAKER_03]: You look at a guy like Diego.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's nearly two years younger, showing similar impact now, showing much better about the ball skills and a much better approach.

[SPEAKER_03]: We'll see what that looks like when he comes state side and they're going to be at a similar level.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I just think you look at the power upside.

[SPEAKER_03]: I would imagine Diego has, I don't know if I would say significantly more, but just like from a physicality standpoint, I would expect him to have a greater power upside.

[SPEAKER_03]: both players are up to metal profiles.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think take could be a good short stop, second baseman, center fielder.

[SPEAKER_03]: Tate also sounds like he was running a lot better than I would expect.

[SPEAKER_03]: He turned in plus times.

[SPEAKER_03]: I heard from the braves.

[SPEAKER_03]: They said they got some double plus times, so that's kind of exciting, but the expectations for him as a hitter are just not [SPEAKER_03]: they're lower than even where I would have had them pre-draft now, just given that pro debut, and so I would be a lot more bullish on Diego and his future than than Tate at this stage.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I would take Tornaz as well over South the scene, and I like South the scene coming out of high school, but [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I was a frightening amount of swing and miss and chase in his pro debut.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I agree the plenty of bat speed.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's got a big big swing.

[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of moving parts.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's geared to generate a lot of bat speed, but it's going to have to [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's a controversial first round pick, but not maybe not a consensus.

[SPEAKER_03]: First round pick where I think when he's sacked her in the bonus, it's fine.

[SPEAKER_03]: They were doing the typical under slot over slot later technique.

[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, Briggs McKinsey was the highest paid guy.

[SPEAKER_03]: So it's not a huge.

[SPEAKER_01]: Sure, but I'm saying, I guess the point I'm getting at is by signing torn as if you're saying he's better than South of scene.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of like saying, all right, we got this first round pick.

[SPEAKER_01]: The equivalent of the first [SPEAKER_01]: coming out of the international market.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right, right.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, seriously.

[SPEAKER_03]: Any other international prospect comparisons to 25 signing or drafties you want to go through?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of easy to talk through.

[SPEAKER_01]: Looking at some of the elite guys like who would fit as a first round pick, let's say, or how do they compare to some of the first round picks?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, you know, alien pain with the bets, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: So how would he compare to trying to think of, like, [SPEAKER_01]: You know, will it's not really a good comparison because they're just totally different players like LA on paying you if you like him it's because of the the hit power combination and you think he's going to be a third baseman.

[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe online with this, yeah, yeah, like holiday not like holiday and nine to these like big.

[SPEAKER_01]: physical, especially in nions, in case like six foot for push and six, five.

[SPEAKER_01]: Guys, pain is more like five or eleven bodies of different body types.

[SPEAKER_03]: I suppose they were mirrors sort of third baseman.

[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, it'll taller than, then how tall is Jose?

[SPEAKER_03]: Because he does like really short every time we see him on TV.

[SPEAKER_00]: I was going to be like five, nine, five, ten.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's not that big.

[SPEAKER_00]: No.

[SPEAKER_03]: But he has five, five, eight, one, ninety is the B-reflist thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't know if I trust some of those numbers, but yeah, like, you know, Jojo Parker, Kevin Feene, there's no like perfect comparison, but I think he at least [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I don't know, like, well, I have to reassess holiday in, yeah, it's got to be, I'm really curious to see what the delta is when we so we typically all will come up with a top 150 like personalized 150s and we'll see where everyone on staff.

[SPEAKER_03]: ranked players and that's kind of how we we drive our composite 100, then we start tinkering with scout feedback, yada yada, but like I'm really curious what the range, who the highest on on Ethan Holiday will be and who the lowest will be because he has the sort of pedigree and he had the sort of debut that I imagine he's going to have like huge variants in where people are putting him on their own individualists and I imagine wherever he winds up [SPEAKER_03]: on the top 100, and even maybe as we get more feedback from the industry on where he should be, no one will be happy with where he ends up because you could just have so many different opinions on how much you want to penalize him, like how scared of you, scared of that profile, are you just giving some other historic swing and mistypes at the top of the draft, like how confident you are and just like his overall hitting track record throughout high school, like the the massive power upside that's still in the tank, [SPEAKER_03]: He's going to be tricking one.

[SPEAKER_03]: Heming Condon, are both tricky in that, that org.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think Paine, you know, Paine's power does not stack up.

[SPEAKER_01]: As good as his debut was, and I hit like what nine homeruns, I think he was like third or fourth in the league in homeruns.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I mean, the slash lies everything you want to see from a player.

[SPEAKER_01]: You just gave him a five million.

[SPEAKER_01]: bucks to but he doesn't have the kind of power that holiday has he doesn't have the kind of power.

[SPEAKER_01]: That save your nions has, you know, and nions, Jojo Parker, those guys didn't make the, you know, Skydon't play after signing or at least didn't play in any official games, Gavin Feean, did a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I would take him ahead of Feean.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would, you know, like, save your nions is probably, you know, they're probably in the same, not family of player, but [SPEAKER_01]: It's empty.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, value.

[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, people who saw it, there would probably be a very split camp on like who, who people.

[SPEAKER_01]: would take.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're like if you're very hit on Xavier Niant and you think he's gonna hit and stay at third base and yeah like you probably gonna you might like him even more because I think there's probably a higher power ceiling with him.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think it's at least in that same same discussion.

[SPEAKER_03]: So right now we don't have pania or Niant's on the 100.

[SPEAKER_03]: Do you think pania will [SPEAKER_01]: I'm a little surprised, yeah, I don't, no, I'm not putting them in the top 100.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's where yeah, he, he, I'm not, like I think, I think Joshua, Gonzalo's will be the only DSL guy you'll see in our top 100 or at least DSL hitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't, I don't think a DSL picture would be in, but Kendry Cheerio is really good.

[SPEAKER_03]: Right, on the [SPEAKER_03]: Cool.

[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_03]: And the other notes on international players got a bunch of listener questions we get to as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: Do some questions.

[SPEAKER_03]: Cool.

[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_03]: We got one from Keith on Twitter who says thanks for all your great work.

[SPEAKER_03]: Ben, would you give Mulligan's to Angel Hanoa and Camp Collier for their social seasons because they're injuries or should their prospect rankings take a big hit.

[SPEAKER_03]: uh...

so and y'all know uh...

had a shoulder injury that limited him came collier had a thumb issue i believe it was like you see all thumb injury had surgery for uh...

yeah i'll just thought he was addressed to you so you can take it first yeah i'm not so i'm not a golfer but mulligan is when you just hit it the way [SPEAKER_01]: a throw away a bad shot and you got a new shot without any penalty right.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, I don't know, maybe Mulligan is too strong because we do have to account for their 2025 season and when we update our forecast for these players, but I do still like both players and in camp colliers case, I've always been high on him, maybe.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, I mean, you've been the same.

[SPEAKER_03]: Same off the [SPEAKER_01]: He, yeah, he had that left thumb surgery.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he missed like two, three months of the season.

[SPEAKER_01]: He comes back, doesn't hit very well in AA.

[SPEAKER_01]: He only hits two home runs in 74 games.

[SPEAKER_01]: I do think the thumb injury played a pretty significant role in his struggles this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're trying to play through any pain in your thumb, [SPEAKER_01]: it's hard to grip the bat.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to control the bat.

[SPEAKER_01]: It will be it's top hand to even off the field like just weight training.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to lift a dumbbell or a barbell.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you have a hand injury or a thumb injury like that, [SPEAKER_01]: Um, and it's not just going to affect upper body, but lower body to, um, you know, he could still hit the crap out of the ball at times.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he had exit vealos up to one 15, um, my expectations at the same time are still lower now compared to, [SPEAKER_01]: last year, but we are still talking about a guy who was 20 years old in AA, a lot of offensive qualities are there to like.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I am optimistic that he will find a way to put it together, but also one of the concerns.

[SPEAKER_01]: is that he did play, you know, he's playing more first base than third base.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, South Stewart was his teammate for part of the year.

[SPEAKER_01]: But overall, the feedback from scouts on his defense does have him, does have him trending more toward first base than third base, which makes for a tougher profile, especially given what we've seen offensively to this point.

[SPEAKER_03]: Well, my love for Kim Collier was always couch in the sense that I definitely thought he was going to be a first baseman, just that lower half was so big with him.

[SPEAKER_03]: So the defensive element of things doesn't really bug me too much.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm so with you, I'm so pretty excited about what he can do offensively.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not gonna, like I think part of the question, I would say, just maybe take issue with a little bit of the question, [SPEAKER_03]: their prospect rankings take a big hit.

[SPEAKER_03]: Well, I think like both of them have already seen their process.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like it's not like something that we have to account for now.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like we've already counted for some of their prospect stock dropping.

[SPEAKER_03]: They aren't ranked now where we had them entering the year.

[SPEAKER_03]: Players have moved around them.

[SPEAKER_03]: We've had kind of like a live moving ranking throughout the year.

[SPEAKER_03]: So like to some extent, like their prospect ranking is already falling because of [SPEAKER_03]: the expectations and I also think like to your point like the injuries happened something we have to account for.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's not like you can just start the 2026 season and wipe those injuries away and move forward.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like there's something we do have to factor in.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I think with both and we can even talk about you know and if you want as well, there are players that I still like.

[SPEAKER_00]: I know you [SPEAKER_03]: It's going to rank in the Guardian system.

[SPEAKER_03]: I just haven't gotten quite deep enough there to tell you with any confidence.

[SPEAKER_03]: But I just remember feeling a lot of confidence in the natural hitter that he was.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I still think that's in there.

[SPEAKER_03]: I would have liked to see more of a step forward in the power department.

[SPEAKER_03]: I guess I'll be curious to hear what [SPEAKER_03]: what the guardians and other scouts are saying about him defensively.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so like I'm not quite certain exactly where he's going to rank in the system or what my thoughts are on him, but he was just such a well rounded hitter and his traits to hit and get on base or so encouraging.

[SPEAKER_03]: So like, [SPEAKER_03]: I think both him and Jason Churio and the Guardian System really did just not have the seasons.

[SPEAKER_03]: I wanted them to have and thought they could have.

[SPEAKER_03]: So it's a bit of a bummer, but I still, I mean, he's still young enough that I'm not writing him off or anything like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: How do you compare Hanout to Eli Willitz?

[SPEAKER_01]: That was trying to think of a con for Willitz when he was in high school.

[SPEAKER_01]: That was like the closest one.

[SPEAKER_01]: I could think of two like it's very savvy, switch hitting short stops where it's not like electric tools that blow the doors off, but very savvy, hedzy players who put the badge of the ball with high frequency.

[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I think that I would probably be maybe slightly more excited about an hour upside, but I think Eli Will, it's really, I think his tools get kind of underrated because he's smaller and he's young, but I think he's got a plus run tool.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think you've been above average defender.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think he's got an above average arm there.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like, I don't think he's like this [SPEAKER_03]: like no tools, all instincts, just like, he's got to be a pure hitter and just like average at everything else.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think his toolset is better than that and will be better than that as he gets older and gets stronger.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not quite as down on the physicality and the projection of the body is maybe some other people are.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I would be more excited about Willis.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like moving forward, if I had to pick one, I would take him at this point.

[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know, is it, would you go the other direction?

[SPEAKER_03]: Are they in the same tier of prospect?

[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, we have, well, let's right now ranked higher on our current top 100, but I would say like the degree of separation shown there's probably less than like the actual value of the profiles.

[SPEAKER_01]: coming into the year if yeah that's the thing is if Hennale had the same year in 25 that he had in 24 I would have said Hennale but coming off the season he had and Michael will it's at this point yeah [SPEAKER_03]: Okay, well, thank you for that question, Keith.

[SPEAKER_03]: We've got another one from Paul D.

Bloom on X who says, what do you see for Joshua Bias post breakout?

[SPEAKER_03]: What's the ceiling?

[SPEAKER_03]: What's his median outcome?

[SPEAKER_03]: Is he who the Cardinals hoped Jordan Walker would be?

[SPEAKER_03]: Is he a top 100 prospect?

[SPEAKER_03]: Uh, so I know Jeff Ponds with us has done a lot of work on bias this year.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's written about kind of some of the adjustments that he's made offensively.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I'd encourage you guys to check out or you specifically polluted check out his PCP if you've not yet, um, but I'll throw this one over to you, Ben, because then I've been looking into bias as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he Joshua, by as he fell out of the top 30 prospects for the Cardinals coming into the season, he was a big, big prospect in high school.

[SPEAKER_01]: We ranked him 31 in the draft in 2021.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, over slot deal as a second round pick and in 2022, 2023, 2024, especially last year, he was very much trending in their own direction.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was looking like a bust, like a player who was probably going to end up getting left off the 40 man roster and heading toward that path of a guy who [SPEAKER_01]: You know, Mike get released in the next year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So not, you know, not, you know, for Cardinals fans, like not quite as bad as Tray Fletcher was, but there were not a lot of encouraging signs.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he totally transformed himself this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's still 22, hi-8, AA.

[SPEAKER_01]: He hit, combined 287, 384, [SPEAKER_01]: 520 home runs stole 54 bases and the strikeout rate was down to 21% so nothing crazy there and like Jeff wrote in his story in August there were changes that he made and I think I'll probably write even more about it when our cardinals top 10 list comes out but [SPEAKER_01]: Jeff points out that he made changes to his hitting mechanics, he cleaned up his posture, he made some adjustments with his lower half that I think improved his balance in the box and gave him a cleaner path to the ball, and you saw him go from striking out 36% of the time, [SPEAKER_01]: you would never bet on that happening.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he did it mostly jumping from high A to W.

You might sometimes see a guy could as strike out great few percentage points, maybe five, maybe more, but for a player.

[SPEAKER_01]: And especially guy who's been in the minor leagues and his fourth season now, or his fourth full season, to do that is pretty incredible.

[SPEAKER_01]: He started slinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone.

[SPEAKER_01]: If we gave an award for the most improved prospect in the minor leagues, Joshua Bias would be a pretty strong candidate, I think, to win that award.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, it is kind of shocking just to see how improved the swing decisions in the miss was because to your point, like I feel like we rarely see players who have such a clear weakness in their profile and the contact department.

[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, even going back to his time as a high school player, like his MO was like massive physicality, massive best speed, huge tools, but really raw offensively.

[SPEAKER_03]: He wasn't [SPEAKER_03]: in like against Massachusetts high school pitchers, which I mean not not a knock on on your state there Ben, but like Massachusetts pitchers in general are not throwing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like stuff, the same degree that you'll see in just southern areas of the country, or I saw him after his high school season playing in just like men's city league and he was swinging a missing at some of their stuff where I was like, oh yeah, I like him, but that's right.

[SPEAKER_03]: It was concerning.

[SPEAKER_03]: There's almost like, uh, I don't know if it's like quite bending my gunry, but it was a sort of like multiple sevens between arm strength.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think it was touching 98 miles per hour on the mound in a high school and it was like, oh, it's like 70, raw power is real with him, but it's just like, is he ever going to hit?

[SPEAKER_03]: And.

[SPEAKER_03]: when you're repeating low A for three years and you're looking at a 30% plus strikeout rate at those levels, 71 games in high A year ago, 37.3% strikeout rate as a 21 year old.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, it would have been to the point where I'm like writing him off almost entirely as a prospect.

[SPEAKER_03]: So to see him go from a, [SPEAKER_03]: or move them to the mound or something like, yeah, 37% misrate last year to like a 26% misrate this year is an insane jump zone miss going from 28% to 20% this year.

[SPEAKER_03]: The chase rate going from 28% to 22% like he's swinging less than half the time now, which was not the case of year ago.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I [SPEAKER_03]: wouldn't imagine it was the case in previous season.

[SPEAKER_03]: So it's kind of tremendous to see the improvements that he's made.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, in terms of like the Jordan Walker sort of comparison or top 100 prospect element of this question, did you have any thoughts on that?

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he has put himself into that top 100 discussion.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, his, his track record of performance or at least track record of good performance is very limited.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: But we do know that he made meaningful mechanical changes to his swing.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has, you know, what he want to call a plus or plus or a power.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that strength in that power has never been in question.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has some time in center field.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's primarily been a right fielder.

[SPEAKER_01]: When I look at some of the alfielders we have in the back of our top 100 right now and some of them will probably, you know, maybe some will move up, some will move out, but like brain and Montgomery with the white socks is, is brain and Montgomery a better prospect than Joshua bias that the same age, they were the same 2021 high school class obviously Montgomery ended up going to college route, but bias out performed him in AA.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're both likely right fielders, raw power is, you know, comparable, if anything, I'd give an edge to to bias slightly and as a hitter, I can't believe I'm saying this based on where bias was a year ago, but bias is a better hitter now.

[SPEAKER_01]: He makes more contact than [SPEAKER_01]: Bo Davidson with the Giants.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would take Bias ahead of him.

[SPEAKER_01]: Some of the other got like a Theo Gillian or a Slate Caldwell.

[SPEAKER_01]: Some of these guys get into more debates of like, okay, under a level.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, upper level versus lower level guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: But when you look at the outfielders who are in the back of our top 100, who have that upper level, minorly experience.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think Joshua Bias fits in with them.

[SPEAKER_01]: And for some of them, it might be that we, [SPEAKER_01]: I would remove them from, yeah, it's up 100 or when we do our 2026 list in January.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think by as it's going to be and he will be in consideration for the top 100 in January, which is totally not something that I would have had on my radar or given much chance to at this time last year.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, the the bread in Montgomery comparison was not something that I had on my [SPEAKER_03]: Like some of their strengths and weaknesses, their age, the impact of the which they hit the ball, like the swing and misconcerns, I really like that comp, actually.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's one that you kind of broke my brain over.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm gonna have to go back and look through all these guys and see which one I would take if I was picking one.

[SPEAKER_03]: Because I think if you would have asked me that prior to this conversation, I probably would have just snapped said, yeah, I'm taking a break in my cum, obviously, but it's a lot closer than I would have imagined.

[SPEAKER_03]: Great, great story there for Bias.

[SPEAKER_03]: Both Canon arms too.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, the arm piece really tied it all together for me in terms of the comp because I think you could comfortably put sevens on, on both their arms and feel good about it.

[SPEAKER_03]: We've got one email from Jim, who says revising the topic of how projects break into their teams top 30, then the top 100, then have huge impacts on the big league game.

[SPEAKER_03]: The best example for him is Cam Schlittler now, drafted in 2022, didn't make it be a list until 2025, although I will say, [SPEAKER_03]: I want to count our draft list because Kim Schmittler was on the draft list, so we least covered him in the draft, but your point, like he didn't make the team top 30 until 2025.

[SPEAKER_01]: Nobody's patting ourselves on the back over ranking them in the 400s.

[SPEAKER_03]: Hey, we had some information on it, but I feel like it is tied together kind of the story.

[SPEAKER_03]: we can see what he was like in college and what Scott's out of him at the time.

[SPEAKER_03]: Not saying like, I want to take credit for him.

[SPEAKER_03]: We just covered 500 prospects and he was one of the guys who was on the list.

[SPEAKER_03]: But anyways Jim goes on to say another prospect list I follow had him at 600 overall after the 2020 four season popping to 2020 early this year, a comment and a question.

[SPEAKER_03]: Guys who have big MLB success without being top prospects when they're signing are out there.

[SPEAKER_03]: Real big league clubs need to know this too because they're extremely valuable in trades.

[SPEAKER_03]: You mentioned Christopher Sanchez and then asked, will MILB stack has data help with this?

[SPEAKER_03]: Are there any minor league stats to look for to indicate future MLB success or future jumps?

[SPEAKER_03]: So paraphrasing a little bit there, but just kind of circling back to the CAM fluid or conversation.

[SPEAKER_03]: How do we evaluate just huge pop-up players?

[SPEAKER_03]: Is there anything we can look at to maybe signal that before it happens or before it happens entirely?

[SPEAKER_03]: What are your thoughts on all that been?

[SPEAKER_01]: a lot of the questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's asking to how do we identify it like while that's happening before other people pick up on it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, so I think what we're looking for to find players like that who are in the midst of a true breakout, not necessarily making a prediction of saying, oh, I think this guy is going to be a breakout guy in the future, but that it's happening right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we need to adjust our forecast for him.

[SPEAKER_01]: right away.

[SPEAKER_01]: What we're looking for is some meaningful signal of a change in a player's true talent level, which, okay, well, what does that mean?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's, you know, is it about like a month of performance for a player where, you know, pitcher has a great ERA or a great strikeout raid, walk raid, hit her with a great [SPEAKER_01]: slash line.

[SPEAKER_01]: No, I mean, not necessarily, I mean, the performance might follow as a, those could be lagging indicators rather than leading.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it could be a byproduct of a change of the players true talent level.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we, we do use statistics like that to estimate the players true talent level, but it's not necessarily what we're looking for to detect.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those changes, I think what we're looking at is more [SPEAKER_01]: You know, indicators that something significant has changed with a player and ideally in a way that can be detected quickly, but you know, sometimes it does take longer to play out and feel a bit more confident that it is a meaningful change, but for a picture and and I would say it's easier to detect these changes faster for pictures than it is for hitters, just because pictures control what you see coming out of their hands, you know, one of them is a change in velocity.

[SPEAKER_01]: Or you could see a change in pitch movement, a measurable change in the break of a pitcher slider, or he adds a new pitch all together, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: He starts throwing a splitter or he switched to a new grip on his change up, especially for a high school pitcher somebody hasn't really thrown that pitch much yet.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think like Jonah Tong would be a good example a couple of years ago with the Met's where he was, you know, the first month into that 2024 season.

[SPEAKER_01]: After he had like a what I was like a six or a 70 R.A.

[SPEAKER_01]: and rookie bull the year before he comes out and it's like, whoa, all the media, you can see this guy stuff is way different.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's way up he's breaking out and now he's one of the best pitching prospects.

[SPEAKER_01]: in baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: So those measurable changes in a pitcher stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you have an understanding of how to evaluate pitches visually or looking at the track man or the Hawkeye data that those pitches produce, you can more quickly [SPEAKER_01]: adapt and update your prior beliefs or projections and change those projections for a player.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think like command control, that's a little bit trickier because there are outings or a stretch of outings with a player where somebody who may previously struggle with command or throwing strikes is now not throwing or not [SPEAKER_01]: Walking as many guys, which can be a positive signal, but it might just be a good stretch for him that reverts, but for the stuff coming out of the hands, you know, just talking about pictures, that's at least one way you can identify that a player has, in fact, changed his that true talent level.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I think it's also just worth reinforcing how fast pictures can really change their profiles today like pictures in particular it feels like with where we're at in pitching development both in terms of training velocity just adding new pitch types like we see this pretty regularly now like a player experiments with a new grip or adds a new pitch and just.

[SPEAKER_03]: a weakness they previously had can I mean it's not entirely overnight but it almost feels like it can just be like a bit of a switch that's flipped immediately.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I think everything you said is absolutely spot on and I don't think it's a case where you want to just look at like the results of the statistics.

[SPEAKER_03]: I do think if you're a dynasty player and you're trying to find the value like using all of the public like pitch data or under the hood [SPEAKER_03]: measures that we have on players that are becoming increasingly more available to the public at the minor league side is your best bet like if you have a pretty good literacy with all of this stuff you've been reading like all the BA reports and you kind of understand what you're looking for I think we even have like just stuff plus out there for pictures more publicly like at the [SPEAKER_03]: I know those statistics normalize fairly quickly, so even if you don't feel like you can be super confident and looking at specific pitch-shaped data or velocity like those numbers are what teams are using to like drive their models and teams value those and I think one of the biggest benefits is like those [SPEAKER_03]: like changes in those specific numbers are reliable fairly quickly.

[SPEAKER_03]: So for hitters, is there anything you want to point out for them specifically, Ben, or do you think this is more specifically towards pitchers?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you know, it's with both, but with hitters, I think it takes more time.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, ultimately the goal is the same though, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Has this players true talent level change with with pitchers?

[SPEAKER_01]: you have more of what I would call input data.

[SPEAKER_01]: So the picture throwing a 98 mile an hour fastball with 20 inches of IVB, six inches of horizontal from a 5-8 release height.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, that's the output, or excuse me, that's the input.

[SPEAKER_01]: the the pitcher controls that directly with hitters you don't have as much of that you can get it with other tools right like a player speed his raw arm strength usually more really changing the profile the future projection one that the arm strength grade changes dramatically for a hit right but you can change that you can see if a player's tool has changed it's obviously not that important and [SPEAKER_01]: Roll it to the other ones, and especially if you're not in a showcase setting like it's harder to detect that in a game, right setting But then you also [SPEAKER_01]: You know, just with hitting, it's just harder to get that same level of input data that you have with pitchers.

[SPEAKER_01]: You have their output, which could be their slash line.

[SPEAKER_01]: It could be their strikeout rate, their walk rate, swinging strike rate, in zone, swinging strike rate, chase rate, and those all are important data points to have, but it's not in the hitters direct control the way that.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, slider movement is for a picture and it also just takes more time for us to reliably estimate the players skill level in those areas.

[SPEAKER_01]: But there are inputs for a hitter that you can see, but not necessarily quantify or at least have the access to quantify it for.

[SPEAKER_01]: for minor league players.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, bat speed would be one, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: If we knew, hey, this hitter added X miles an hour of top-end bat speed relative to last year, that's meaningful.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's going to affect his power upside or his power output, and it's going to just affect his overall [SPEAKER_01]: hitting or this hit or has changed his hitting mechanics where his swing is now more compact his barrel is taking a tighter turn into the zone it's getting into the zone quicker earlier the path [SPEAKER_01]: is keeping the head of the barrel through the zone for a longer period of time.

[SPEAKER_01]: That should or early could, I guess I could just say, mean that a hitter is made a meaningful adjustment that will transfer or will translate to better results in game.

[SPEAKER_01]: Exit velocity is one where I would bucket that into output data, but still if we're seeing peak exit velocities, [SPEAKER_01]: Beyond what a hitter has previously shown, that's a signal that power has changed.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, we see a hitter who's never, we've never seen anything above 108 before.

[SPEAKER_01]: And now he's hitting balls, 11, 11, 12.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, and obviously want to make sure it's just not like a one off mystery, but if you are seeing higher EVs, you can feel confident that that's a change in true talent level for a hitters power, there's like a meaningful, quantifiable change that's that's already occurred.

[SPEAKER_01]: Great swing.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of guys with really good swings who are not good hitters, but, you know, you have to recognize pitches pick up spin swing at strikes beyond time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Have the hand eye coordination to make context.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I might be more judicious on like rocketing up the hitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: through a wireless when we do have significant history on him and just waiting to see some more performance data play out when when that performance matches the changes that we're seeing mechanically or another measurable data that holds meaningful signal and then yeah that's probably a sign of a hit or who is in a true breakout.

[SPEAKER_03]: Nice very well said and I think just in general really fun question from Jim so if you guys have questions similar to this or questions about process and we really like to talk about that on the show it's always a lot of fun so send them our way it's at future projection at base while market calm is the email questions comments feedback anything you want to send that way we will be able to see it.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think that's all we have for today, Ben, but in terms of questions, but if you wanted to add anything before we get out of here and I'm not sure if you're about to say something.

[SPEAKER_01]: No, it was just the last part that it also helps to have a staff full of people at baseball America who were also all trying to find these guys who were breaking out rather than just trying to find them all myself or the two of us.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, if you're in a dynasty league, maybe like for sure kids to be like bird dog evaluators for you, scouring the internet trying to find as much data as you can to tip you off to some changes, get more eyeballs there.

[SPEAKER_03]: or maybe just subscribe to BA.

[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe that'll tip you off before your league mates as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: Well, they don't have to be mutually exclusive, Carlos.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's true.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's true.

[SPEAKER_03]: Cool.

[SPEAKER_03]: Well, this is fun, Ben.

[SPEAKER_03]: That was episode 140.

[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you guys for listening.

[SPEAKER_03]: Thanks for supporting BA, as always.

[SPEAKER_03]: But until next time, so long, everybody.