[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues, from the MLB draft, all the way to the show.

[SPEAKER_00]: The Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.

[SPEAKER_00]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.

[SPEAKER_02]: What's up, everyone?

[SPEAKER_02]: Welcome into another episode of the Toolshed Podcast brought to you by Roto Baller.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is episode of 429.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you for joining me.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm your host, Eric Cross.

[SPEAKER_02]: You can find me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the show is at Toolshed Pod.

[SPEAKER_02]: Doing the first base dynasty ranks today.

[SPEAKER_02]: Have another great guest with me here in the Toolshed.

[SPEAKER_02]: He is a host on the Prospect Warehouse podcast and a writer at FNC Pros creator of fscores at fantasy Asable on Twitter slash x.

Mr.

Tim can act.

[SPEAKER_02]: Tim has a going, man.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yo, yo, what's up?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's almost Christmas.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is the the pre-Christmas podcast run.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like before we started talking, we were like before we started recording, I guess.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was like, this is my third podcast of the day.

[SPEAKER_01]: You've been on a magnificent run, magnificent is seven run of seven podcasts.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's like back to back to back, but not just today, but like over the last week.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like, this is, get it in before Christmas, get as many as you can in because like, I'm gonna go through a dead period of a few days where I'm not doing anything.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's what's happening.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that would be the next couple of few days.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, for everyone listening, this is dropping on Friday, but we're recording on Tuesdays, hopefully nothing notable happens that screws everything up that what we say that today, because again, another 72 hours for this comes out, but yet, it's currently a Red Heron 5 PM Eastern time on Tuesday evening, but of course with Christmas, you're both Tim and I have kids.

[SPEAKER_02]: recording on, you know, Christmas Eve or Christmas just obviously is not plausible.

[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, I mean, starting like I think it was a Friday for a last, I think was when my run started and that done like 789 pods in the last 9 10 days, whoever heck it's been.

[SPEAKER_02]: So.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, but nice nice to have a little break next couple of days, but we got a fun episode here with the first base dynasty, a lot of obviously great names here some young names and old names pretty good mix at this position did the first base prospects version of this on Monday episode for 28 that was with Chris well should be missed that go back and check that out.

[SPEAKER_02]: But we'll hit the, the major league dudes here today, but before we get into that, the usual housekeeping.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you enjoy the podcast, please write in review.

[SPEAKER_02]: You can find all my content either on Rotobar or on my Patreon toolshedfansy.com.

[SPEAKER_02]: Make sure you check out all of the great content over on Rotobar.

[SPEAKER_02]: With a $1 premium pass, gain access to expert tools and advice from proven winners, including team sync, line up assistant tools, free agent finder, prop picks, and the number one DFS line up optimizer are premium pass comes with a 100% moneyback guarantee, go to runaballor.com slash radio and use the discount code tool share to get 10% off at checkout.

[SPEAKER_02]: All right, top right into it here with our personal top 10 rankings at this first-based [SPEAKER_01]: All right, number one, I've did it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I've got Nick Hertz number one.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm a, I'm that guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I got Nick Hertz one of Labrador Junior 2.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ben Rice 3, Rice Harper 4, Raphael Devers 5, Pete Alonzo 6, Michael Bush 7, Tyler Soterstrom 8, Jack Caglio 9, and Matt Olsen 10.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I should preface, I guess, that that's a three-year dynasty rank because I do have a three-year dynasty ranking and then a five-year dynasty ranking.

[SPEAKER_01]: two sets of dynasty rankings, so that could be a little complicated, but it's just like longer horizon versus first shorter horizon, I figure I'd give all you find people the three year rankings today.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, mine are, I mean, [SPEAKER_02]: I think I try to blend like immediate impact three year five year, but I think the biggest kind of piece of that pie is my three year kind of how to think they're going to be the next three years so I'm definitely kind of right with you there.

[SPEAKER_02]: from the toolshed accounts on their just asking you know who do you think is the number one guy for dynasty at this position just between these two I think that's the only two options right now and it hurts and blood junior uh...

so sometimes in the poll as of when i'm talking right now uh...

still fifty now is often the poll but right now it's fifty three percent curts forty seven percent garrero and some of the comments or you know how can anybody already have nitt curts after one season you know i get it will begin to that here [SPEAKER_02]: in a minute, but yeah, I also have Nick Kurtz, one, Vlad Junior, two, then that next tier is actually a pretty sizable tier.

[SPEAKER_02]: I have Peter Lanzo 3, Raphael Devers 4, and he's joining the first base ranks here, if this season.

[SPEAKER_02]: Josh Nieler at five, Bryce Harper six, Matt Olsen seven, Ben Rice eight, Tyler Sota Strom nine, though he'll probably be losing eligibility after this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you just soon sell a still eligible heading in the 2026 and Michael Bush at number 10.

[SPEAKER_02]: and all those guys are in a pretty sizable cluster here.

[SPEAKER_02]: But let's start with Kurt's verse, Vlad.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I get the people that are saying, oh, how is it?

[SPEAKER_02]: You have a guy coming off his rookie year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Already number one, but at the same time, that was one of the best rookie years we've seen.

[SPEAKER_02]: At least in my lifetime, it's definitely up there.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, two ninety three eighty three six nineteen slash line thirty six bombs four eighty nine play appearances.

[SPEAKER_02]: He was number one in all of baseball in Wolba and WRC plus after I believe it was like made to 20th.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I got for his first few weeks.

[SPEAKER_02]: I know that's higher than Otani higher than judge higher than everybody.

[SPEAKER_02]: He was number one in both of those and a lot of red on the savant page though.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now there's there's some issues with the way from the K rate a little bit higher.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, Vlad coming off and it's another good typical Vlad season 96 runs 23 bombs 22, 381, 477 slash line and also a lot of red on that's about page still very young 26 and Kurtz is 22 right now sounds both so very young.

[SPEAKER_02]: So how close is this for you, Tim?

[SPEAKER_02]: And what made you confident to put a guy coming off?

[SPEAKER_02]: Again, one season of under 500 way appearances, number one, already at this position.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, it was definitely not like an automatic, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's something I had to think about for sure before I did it.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think that the main driver of this is angles, Nick Hurst just gets to say way more optimal angles than Vlad.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, for instance, and it's not like they're crazy.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not like he's Isaac Parades, you know, pulling the ball over the place, but they're more standardized angles, I would say, whereas, like, Vlad actually hits the ball on the ground a lot more than people think he does.

[SPEAKER_01]: His career as a 48% ground ball, right, last year was 46 and a half.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's hit in the ball on the ground a lot, and part of me is like, okay, when he gets older, [SPEAKER_01]: he's going to be losing more speed and it's going to be harder for him to run out some of those ground balls that turn it hits so the batting average is going to go down and unless he starts pulling the ball in the air a lot more you know going like old you know like old version of Joey Vado kind of and just like selling out for power then he's just not going to be as good of a hitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously Kurt has a five year difference on him.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's much younger.

[SPEAKER_01]: He hasn't gotten to his peak yet.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has better angles at this time.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's not hitting the ball as hard as Vlad and he probably doesn't have his high of a batting average upside now.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think that by the time that we're at the back end of this three, you know, four or five year kind of window that most people look at for dynasty.

[SPEAKER_01]: he's going to be much better of a player and then on top of you got the stadium angle right like Nick Kurtz is playing in a much better hitter stadium right now like maybe the best like yeah we don't have enough data to really like park factory it against cores in uh great american small park yet but those are the three right now really is you know Sacramento Colorado and Cincinnati are like the three you know [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, no, it definitely helps in your playing in like a minor league ballpark from the couple of years before they head over to DeVagus.

[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, I think that's like the one thing basically separating Vlad Jr.

from, you know, being a total reincarnation of his father, was, you know, Vlad's senior was his, you know, obviously hitting the ball.

[SPEAKER_02]: super hard and great contact skills, same thing we would junior, but senior would elevate the ball a lot more consistently and unfortunately we don't have all the data back then when when flat senior was playing as we do now but yeah you could absolutely say [SPEAKER_02]: that Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

is safer.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that is easy to say because he's shown just, you know, several years.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's crazy that he's been in the league for seven years now.

[SPEAKER_02]: That is his absolute bonkers to think about, but first off, he plays all the time.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he has not missed over, you know, let's see, the most he's missed in a season since he got into Major League Baseball with six games.

[SPEAKER_02]: which was this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean 156, 159, 156, 160, 161, all 60 games in the short and season, then 123 after he debuted back in 2019.

[SPEAKER_02]: To he stays on the field, he gives you that batting average floor.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, for the most part, you know, 290 plus, you can pencil that in, you know, with 25, the 30 home runs, he's kind of subled into that range.

[SPEAKER_02]: which I think is it's fine.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he was the top dog the last couple years of this position didn't think anybody was going to really upset him this quickly, but then Nick Kirk's was like, you know, hold my beer and watch me do with my thing and just mashing home run after home run, 22 home runs a fast balls.

[SPEAKER_02]: He can hit home runs off breaking balls and off speed, even though you know, a little bit of a higher width rate against those, but higher air rate, higher pull [SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, it'll probably be a lower average, you know, four cards.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, their averages were very, very close this year, and always closer, actually, they're in two points apart, two ninety two to two ninety.

[SPEAKER_02]: I expect that gap to widen.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think flat probably stays in that range.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I'd say even with the ballpark, Kurt's probably more like 270, you know, moving forward.

[SPEAKER_02]: But if he's giving you a 40 plus one runs, I mean, is it crazy Tim to think that, [SPEAKER_02]: Courts could hit 50 home runs next year, is that crazy to think that?

[SPEAKER_01]: No, it's not.

[SPEAKER_01]: People forget, it's not like a herd of like Peter Lanzo had 50 home runs in his right here.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he had 51.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, no, it's definitely possible, especially in that stadium, and especially with what he's shown now.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, like, is he going to be his good last year or next year as he was last year?

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's just something you have to take into strides, like, okay, he's probably going to have much better accounting stats because he's been playing more games.

[SPEAKER_01]: But on a slash line, it's going to be as good.

[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of expect that plate skills will improve.

[SPEAKER_01]: He ran a 364 bat, but he's probably not going to do that again.

[SPEAKER_01]: So batting average will probably go down.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I expect power to be the same if not better.

[SPEAKER_01]: He reached new max EVs last year than when he did an his little, you know, minor league small sample size or whatever in 2024.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like I expect, you know, as he ages, power will get better.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and maybe swing decisions will get better, so maybe even though the bad does go down, he will have better contact rates, better zone contact rates at least.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, counting those things altogether, yeah, I think that it's, you know, it's still possible that he's as good as last year or better, and of course, we have to extrapolate that based on played appearances.

[SPEAKER_01]: So once you extrapolate that, yeah, 50 home runs is totally realistic.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think that's absolutely employee for sure.

[SPEAKER_02]: It would even be better, like, you know, we talk about how he is, you know, higher pull air rate than, than, cloudy, but a lot of his home runs were actually, like, center and left the opposite field.

[SPEAKER_02]: He doesn't actually have a lot of pull home run.

[SPEAKER_02]: He looks as his spray chart here.

[SPEAKER_02]: I see one, two, three, four.

[SPEAKER_02]: Like seven maybe eight that were pulled home runs and maybe there's some dots that are kind of overlapping that I'm missing But you know a lot of I say you know two thirds three quarters of them are to center and the opposite way to left So I mean if even really leaned into that pole side power even more I mean that could be easily 555 home runs.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean [SPEAKER_02]: Sky's lemon here with Kirk.

[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, maybe he used 20 30 points below, Vladie in the average, but I also think there's a good 15, 20 more home runs to be had here with Nick Kirk.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, yes, why go ahead of him or head of Vlad with him, but I mean, they're both very close.

[SPEAKER_02]: My overall ranking, so they're both both top 25 overall guys.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, [SPEAKER_02]: Both in tier one easily the tier one at this position then after these two it really opens up I mean we each have different number threes and and your number three is someone that you know Everyone listening should know that I am insanely high on right now in Ben Rice So let's talk about him right here because now even though he's still catcher eligible and everyone love him to keep that It does look like he's probably first baseman long term and [SPEAKER_02]: probably losing catch your eligibility after this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: We'll see that's not a guarantee by any means, but you know, the metrics are just loud across the board like no major red flags, like not like high-width rate or care, like we have with culture, and like that it's just red after red after red slider on this upon page.

[SPEAKER_02]: 26 bombs last year in 530 plate appearances, [SPEAKER_02]: And we're talking about a 255, 337, 499 slash line, which is good, but really dig into those metrics.

[SPEAKER_02]: And that's when it gets really exciting.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, he was in the top 11% of hitters in xwova, xba, xlog, average ev, barrel rate, hard hit rate, sweet spot rate, [SPEAKER_02]: squared up rate and chase rate and then that speed with rate k rate walk rate raw like top 38% so just a lot of good here with rice but worry you know obviously you you have them third so you're you're very high and I'm I'm actually kind of mad at you for having him right higher than me because that's just not [SPEAKER_02]: You know, that's not allowed in the Ben Rice World with how high I am, but, you know, how do you think he long-term kind of settles in value-wise at this first-based spot?

[SPEAKER_02]: Like, do you think he can maintain that top five level at a moving port?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, for the foreseeable future, he's gonna be in New York.

[SPEAKER_01]: So as long as he's in that stadium, then, I think there is definitely a major possibility of him staying in this, you know, [SPEAKER_01]: top three to five range.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it was a one year wonder thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: So when I first do my rankings just like a little bit of an inside baseball here, I kind of just, you know, write down names and I'm like, okay, this is the name, these are the names of the first basement that I think it's going to play out.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll just put the names down first.

[SPEAKER_01]: Then once I do that, then I'm going to really dig in.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like my first thing I do is I'm putting a put in a value.

[SPEAKER_01]: When I did that, I had Benry rice at like six or something like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: But then when I started really digging the stats, I just kept pushing him further and further up.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, because I was like, okay, Ben Rice against Petalons.

[SPEAKER_01]: Of course, Alonso was not signed at the time that I had done this ranking, because he just signed like a week ago and I wrote this up a few weeks ago.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm, you know, trying to push them against each other.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe I give a lawn to a little more credit now that he's in a really good line up, but It's not gonna be that they give a difference.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, rice is four years younger, so you have that on this side But I you know, I put these guys up against each other.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like rice for his devours.

[SPEAKER_01]: Devours isn't a really bad hitters park Rice isn't a really good hitters park because Yankee Stadium has the third best park factor for home runs for lefties and Ben Rice is a leftie.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you all love that [SPEAKER_01]: And then here's one that I, you know, a little stat that I found interesting, his hit tool is just so good Eric that he has a hit a 90% zone contact rate, which is higher than Vlad who are just gushing about how good Vlad's hit tool is and that that was like the reason that we were considering Vlad over Nick curates is because of the hit tool, but Ben Rice is actually has a better zone contact.

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, he's more aggressive in zone two is 67 zone swing versus Vlad A 64.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's not only better at hitting the ball in the zone, but he's more aggressive in the zone.

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, he's hitting the ball almost as hard.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you're not really losing anything on EV is like, Vlad has a higher max.

[SPEAKER_01]: But, uh, Rice has a higher average exit velocity.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's kind of, you know, like, [SPEAKER_01]: It max could happen one time.

[SPEAKER_01]: It could just be like a one time event, you know, I've fly to put a 120 up.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like no one's going to beat that unless you're only old crews.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then as far as angles, rice has angles more in line with Kurt's.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's getting better angles on the ball on top of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: So talking about air pole, uh, bed rice, a lefty and Yankee stadium had a 47% pull rate last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's pulling it and he's hitting the ball more in the air than Vladi so like even him against Vladi It's kind of tight like almost pushing number two because he's that he was that good and his hit tool was that impressive last year And the fact that he's going to get regular reps and not get like cornered in a catcher, which was kind of like the fear you know with him for [SPEAKER_01]: a couple of years, like a lot of people really liked him, like kind of the stuff he was doing under the hood, but he got full-time ride, and I think that, you know, he made the best of it, and he's in his prime right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: So why would you want to miss out on that prime?

[SPEAKER_01]: You have such a good hit tool in a stadium that is perfect for him.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I 100% agree, I mean, I've said it before on this podcast and I kind of became enamored with the bat when I saw him in double a, you know, which was what 20, 22 or three, I forget what year it was, but he just, you know, they came here for a week, you know, six games and he just matched even his ultra loud, you know, he was an in control of all as the bat, so I'm like man, this guy is someone that's I'm insanely impressed by and it's just continued to manifest from there and [SPEAKER_02]: You know, you mentioned like the profile is just so good all across the board where literally if you just view put You know his sliders next to flatties savant sliders and pull the hey, which set would you like more?

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean it probably be close or maybe even favor favor rice You know reason why I you know I haven't put him ahead of lattie yet, and I think you know obviously nobody has is obviously [SPEAKER_02]: Vlad he has a lot longer track record and we're going off again this one year of rice and we got you know six seven years of Vlad he's so [SPEAKER_02]: You know, it'd be flailing foolish to put him in head right now, even though we might want to.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I trust me, I died, I want to put him even higher myself.

[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, this whole section was just really hard for me because you got so many good names, like these guys that are like potential Hall of Fame names, you know, like Peter Lanzo could be a Hall of Fame or Davers could be a Hall of Fame or Harper Olson.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, all these guys could be Hall of Famers, you know, these, for them they have a head of rice, but, you know, they're all a little bit older, you know.

[SPEAKER_02]: that was still 28, 29, so he's not super old, but we have three guys in this top 10 that have been in the options for so long, but now they're getting a little bit older, so kind of transitions into these guys here, you know, with, you know, the Alonzo's, the harpers, the oleses of the world, and even Freddy Friedman though, he's obviously 36 now.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, when do you start looking to maybe maybe start selling these guys and in an I and see Lake Tim, I mean, obviously, if you're contending, you know, doesn't really make sense to the sell a price Harper right now, whom he was to be 33, but it's still, you know, one of the better hitters in the game.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, but even this these guys in general, like that 32, 33-year-old window.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, Corey Seager is in that window now like tray turner.

[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of these guys that have been early round assets for so long and it can be hard to let go of one of those guys, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: Especially if you had them on your team, but I've had Bryce Harper on my home league keeper league team.

[SPEAKER_02]: sense, I literally drafted him the, you know, winter after he was drafted and they majorly baseball.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I've had him since like was that 2010, I believe it was 2011 water.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I've had him so long, but I'm getting to the point when I'm like, all right, I guess I'm thinking about life after Harper.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, take me through your process with just dealing with guys like these, you know, Alonzo Harper types that are getting a little bit older.

[SPEAKER_01]: So last year I spent a ton of time doing like aging curve data studies.

[SPEAKER_01]: I like what I did was I grabbed a bunch of data myself and took it year over year over year for like a number of years.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then basically what I did was I took WRC plus because you want to just want to look for like one standard stat you want to look for every single set or else it can take forever.

[SPEAKER_01]: but I used WRC plus as a basis and then just found out like basically what years people started dropping off and then just popped it all into its giant table like all that data and what I found was that there's like three primary drop-off points for hitters.

[SPEAKER_01]: You've got your first drop off point is age 31, which is just like your standard starter, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like that's just like your standard player.

[SPEAKER_01]: Start dropping off at 31.

[SPEAKER_01]: All these guys are talking about I'm not your standard player.

[SPEAKER_01]: These are all stars.

[SPEAKER_01]: Your all-star drop off starts happening at age 3435.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's when you start seeing decline with your all-stars.

[SPEAKER_01]: and then your Hall of Fame Types start dropping off at like 38.

[SPEAKER_01]: So those types usually drop off around 38.

[SPEAKER_01]: And from the data that I've looked at in my thought process, the guys with the better hit discipline combination are going to last longer than the guys who don't have that skill set.

[SPEAKER_01]: So for instance, just using my F scores as an example, my F scores 100 is average.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like for this year, Bryce Harper has a 112 hit and a 106 discipline score, which are both well above average.

[SPEAKER_01]: and then Olsen is a 105 and a 104.

[SPEAKER_01]: So what that tells me is even though Harper is two years older than Pete and a year older than Olsen, I kind of, you know, Harper's a whole thing lock pretty much at this point.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like I would not expect unless it's injury caused, like I would not expect major downturn in his production.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like you're going to get one or two percent less year for year, just as age is happening.

[SPEAKER_01]: But you're not going to get that total error, this guy just falls off of the cliff.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think until he's like 37, 38.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that, you know, within the next three, four years with Bryce Harbor, petting injury, I think we're still pretty safe.

[SPEAKER_01]: Alonzo and Olsen, I'm a little bit more skeptical on.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think those might be like the guys who draw off at 34, 35, especially because of the strikeouts.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, like Olson will walk more than Alonzo, but he strikes out more to and he's a year older.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I kind of would give Olson only more like a to like I'm only comfortable with Olson for like another two years.

[SPEAKER_01]: Really whereas Alonzo I'd give him like another three or four.

[SPEAKER_01]: Also, Alonso kind of goofball and like, I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: I just feel like the way he is.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's like, he's like a gamer goofball kind of like, I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's very interesting guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he might last, you know, as a good guy to those 35 or 36.

[SPEAKER_01]: But that's maybe a little bias just to me liking his personality and like, [SPEAKER_01]: You know, I know he's a gamer and he's like obsessed with baseball and like really that's like, it's like, it seems like that's all he cares about, whereas like Olsen is a little more reserved and quiet, like we don't hear as much from him, but like we know because Alonzo goes on like, Falt territory all the time and stuff like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's always talking about like all the stuff he's doing.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like, you know that that dude is like his head is in the game still.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not like a crisp blind situation.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're just going to go to Colorado and like peace out.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you know, like I give a lawn.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like I like a lawn's a little bit more and not just because of the one year for durability, but because I kind of just I know where his head is at a little bit more than like Olson, not saying like, I don't think Olson's a gamer.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just he's just not as out there about, you know, his mentality.

[SPEAKER_01]: So.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, no, I that's why I've loved a bit of Lanzo to that's why I've always been a big Lanzo guy and I think I even have my profile picture for a little bit of time like a week or so on here after he won the I think was his first derby when he like ripped his shirt off afterwards.

[SPEAKER_02]: It was like, you know, that's his epitomizes what he's all about and I love it just the passion.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm right there with you.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, with [SPEAKER_02]: You know, hitters in this like, you know, the 31, 32, 33 year old range, I feel like first basement in general, you know, usually don't drop off as quickly, especially if it's, if most of their value comes from the bat, I mean, I'm more willing to let go of like a tray turner.

[SPEAKER_02]: The tray turner has still been really good, and some providing early run value, but a lot of his values type of in his legs, so, you know, if he's not, see if he's, you know, not stealing [SPEAKER_02]: He's more like 15 to 20, you know, that loses some value there.

[SPEAKER_02]: Or even gods that just haven't shown greater ability, you know, like the Byron Buckstins, the Corey Seagers, because, you know, what are the odds that if they couldn't really say healthy are there 20s and, you know, early part of the 30s, it's magically going to get better as they get into the mid 30s.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I'm, I'm, I'm someone that, I mean, my mid 30s right now, so I'm, it doesn't get better.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, [SPEAKER_02]: And I'm not a world class athlete, you know, professional athlete either.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm just sitting here in my office in my house in Maine, but, you know, I just, I don't see guys like that aging as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, like, look, you know, Freddie and Freddie famous have a unicorn, not many age as gracefully as Freddie, this drop off comes, you know, I'm sure I'll come for eventually for him.

[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, I feel okay about Pete.

[SPEAKER_02]: I feel even okay about Olson's because, you know, he's been very, very durable for the [SPEAKER_02]: You know, half decade or even longer.

[SPEAKER_02]: Harper, who I love and I love from a skill set more than the other two guys, you know, obviously he's been dinged up this the way he plays even when he's playing first base.

[SPEAKER_02]: He just can't seem to say on that field for 150 plus games, you know, many seasons.

[SPEAKER_02]: So he's one.

[SPEAKER_02]: I am a little worried about even when I love Harper and he's when my fair players average love the way he plays, that he's good for baseball.

[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, I do worry about him a little bit, but in general, these guys, I'm not as worried about as I am when they Cory Seaguer, Troy Turner, etc.

[SPEAKER_02]: But it's always hard to, you know, make that decision where you got to move on from a guy that you've had for so long, but it's done so much good for you, for sure.

[SPEAKER_02]: Last guy that talk about here in this top 10 range, Michael Bush, I mean, what a surprise.

[SPEAKER_02]: You finally get some, because it's a playing time and he merges as being a legitimate starting [SPEAKER_02]: first space for fantasy purposes and I had a decent 2024, you know, 248, 21 bombs, but really broke out in 2025.

[SPEAKER_02]: 261, 343, 523 slash line in 592 plate appearances, 70 runs 34 home runs 90 RBI at sprinkled in four steals as well and a lot of good metrics for Michael Bush as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, [SPEAKER_02]: quality of contact very, very good, you know, highlighted by a 17% barrel rate.

[SPEAKER_02]: I also had some pretty decent, you know, enough contact rates too.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, not to stand out there, but you know, around league average contact even a little bit above league average in zone.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, what's the walks of a good clip?

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, there's a lot to like here with Michael Bush.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, do I think there's another level to unlock from here?

[SPEAKER_02]: Probably not, but I'm at least definitely on board with having Bush kind of stick around this top 10 range for, you know, the first seat of the future is 28.

[SPEAKER_02]: So still kind of young, even though you didn't really get a shot till he was 26, 27 because of the Dodgers, but what he thoughts here on Michael Bush, obviously you're high in them, because you have them top 10.

[SPEAKER_02]: Do you see this, you know, this run-up top 10 continuing for him will involve?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, he's pretty consistent.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of funny if you look at this year and last year He really didn't do that and even like 2023 when he's with the Dodgers like the way that he swing his swing decisions has not really changed very much [SPEAKER_01]: Um, he just hitting the ball harder.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's the only difference is you're seeing his average ex velocities in his hard hate rate have gone up and besides that and he's pulling the ball a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_01]: Really nothing in his entire approach has changed whatsoever.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like he's literally had like despite like his favorite dropping pretty significantly over the last couple of years.

[SPEAKER_01]: his own contact rates, his own swing rates, like his chase, his swing strike rates is all the same.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like basically all he's doing is just hitting the ball more consistently hard and then pulling a little bit and sometimes that'll do it, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, [SPEAKER_01]: We saw JD Martinez, we saw Justin Turner have these breakouts around the same age and he needed playing time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now he's finally with a team that's giving him the playing time and then look what happens.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, okay, you make a little bit of adjustment to your pull, try to, you know, get some bad speed up, hit the ball a little bit harder and boom to there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Also, that's that's could be the difference between being a [SPEAKER_01]: You know, okay, starting first baseman and then being all star.

[SPEAKER_01]: So kind of crazy.

[SPEAKER_01]: But that's really those are the small things that can change a player from a guy who is like borderline fantasy relevant to this guys that do that you must have.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and it's been like consistently just getting better across the board.

[SPEAKER_02]: I missed the quality of contact taking up a good bit last year, you know, [SPEAKER_02]: but seven and a half percent and he did so like it wasn't like he sold out for power either if he he dropped the car right by five percent from twenty and a half to twenty three and a half percent while improving his contact rates both in zone and overall so the fact that he not only was hitting ball harder but making more contact and striking out less all that is is very very encouraging and these are all tangible changes so [SPEAKER_02]: Again, do I think he's going to be all of a sudden like a top five guy, this position no.

[SPEAKER_02]: But I think he can absolutely stick in like that six to 10 range is like a mid, you know, mid range for, you know, first basements, but see as all these guys start getting older, some of these young bucks don't, you know, jump up and take some of those bots.

[SPEAKER_02]: Hell, maybe you even see Michael Bush pushing top five value at this position for the next few years.

[SPEAKER_02]: I can absolutely see that.

[SPEAKER_02]: Love Michael Bush.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's just crazy.

[SPEAKER_02]: What is this a plane timing to do for a guy?

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's what I'm hoping don't rushing finally get some, because it's a plane time eventually, whether that's what the Dodgers or Elits were, because, you know, I like his bat a ton too.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, he's kind of like the new, you know, Michael Bush is completely blocked.

[SPEAKER_02]: But we'll see how that turns out.

[SPEAKER_02]: All right, let's move on to 11 through 20 in our first space rankings.

[SPEAKER_02]: Tim, who do you got in these spots?

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, Levin, I've got Spencer Torkelson, 12 Vinnie P.

Vinnie Pascontino, 13 is Bryce Eldridge, 14 Jonathan Miranda, 15 Alec Burlson, who is now finally free, 16 Josh Nailer, 17 Freddy Freeman, 18 Kyle Manzardo, 19 Esmeraline Valdez, and 20 Kobe Mayo.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you Burlson's freed now, but Kobe Mayo is definitely not, but we'll get in the Mayo here in a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: For me, 11th to 20, I have Vinnie P at 11, a Randa at 12.

[SPEAKER_02]: In my rankings, I have Sammy Bassayo, first which is eligible, though.

[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe I'll take that off eventually, but for now, I have them in there.

[SPEAKER_02]: I've Elders 14, Freeman 15, South Stewart 16, Eastside Parade is 17, Turcle is in 18, George Ray, Brasignio, 19, and Yandy Diaz, basically older version of Lajunier, kind of sort of, older of Lajunier light, I'll call him.

[SPEAKER_02]: at at 20 overall.

[SPEAKER_02]: But two guys when I saw your rank is when you shot them over to me earlier today.

[SPEAKER_02]: Two guys that I really stuck out to me and that I wanted to talk about in this range.

[SPEAKER_02]: First one is Jack Kaggle Young because entering 2025, like there was a real debate between like, oh hey Jack or Nick.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, Kaggle going or Kurt's.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I think that was actually like a legit debate to have and I was always, you know, more a Kurt's than than Kags, but I thought it was fairly close, you know, for the most part.

[SPEAKER_02]: And now it obviously is not because Kurt's number one or number two, depending we talked to with this position.

[SPEAKER_02]: and Kaggle on for the most part is not in the top 10, but you still have them in the top 10.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's coming off a really rough rookie season, 232 plate appearances, 157, 237, 225 slash line, seven home runs.

[SPEAKER_02]: It did show some decent things under the hood, some stuff that work on, but what did you see from Kaggle on this so has you encouraged enough to keep them in the top 10 [SPEAKER_01]: uh...

quite a bit but uh...

first i'm gonna start this off by just telling people don't do crazy things and like cello on cackleon right now because i had somebody messaged me the other day they're like hey i have an offer of uh...

jack cackleon for gauge wood should i do it and i was like no and then they responded and they said oh two later i already did it i'm like [SPEAKER_01]: That's crazy.

[SPEAKER_01]: Don't sell low on jack-cag away on like I like gauge wood too.

[SPEAKER_01]: You've got good stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: Come on.

[SPEAKER_01]: You don't want to sell like one of the, you know, really good, young first basement power hitters for a pitcher who's only pitched 30 something innings and college even.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's crazy to me.

[SPEAKER_01]: But anyway, Kegleon, 172 Babbit last year in the Major's Eric, 172 Babbit.

[SPEAKER_01]: That is not [SPEAKER_01]: the worst lock in the entire world, like nobody can run that low of a habit.

[SPEAKER_01]: In the minors last year, before he got to the majors, because people are concerned about the hit tool.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was running a 75.3% contact rate and an almost 88% zone contact rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: So nothing really worry some there and the chase rate in the minors was only 34%.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's about average.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's not crazy.

[SPEAKER_01]: 34% is about average.

[SPEAKER_01]: If it's in the 40% and you say, okay, there's some hobby bias stuff going on here.

[SPEAKER_01]: But 34% is about average.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's slightly below average.

[SPEAKER_01]: Nothing to be concerned about.

[SPEAKER_01]: This guy hates the crap out of the ball.

[SPEAKER_01]: Almost 12% barrel in the miners.

[SPEAKER_01]: Air pull is over 19%.

[SPEAKER_01]: 94 average EV, one on 9.4, 90, if one 13.6 max.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like this guy, mash is the ball.

[SPEAKER_01]: and that 172% better than the majors.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 210 at bats it happened for a long time that is not who he is like this is the time to buy on jack Like you're not ever gonna get a better buying point then you are right now Yeah, you hit the ball in the ground 50% you don't like that in the majors like you definitely don't like that But that's not consistent with what he's been in the past.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's an aberration So when I see things like that, that's just an outlier [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not really concerned.

[SPEAKER_01]: I just think if people are going to be selling him for a gauge wood, every lead that you can do that in, you should be trading pictures all over the place for Jack right.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's that's where I'm not on Jack.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's funny that I'm never at any of these leagues where as I get a lot of these on this court to or just err on Twitter, people ask me, you know, they'll be like, so completely like, no, don't do that.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm like, why am I not getting these right?

[SPEAKER_02]: Like, why is somebody offering me jack for gauge wood right now or something like that?

[SPEAKER_02]: But and before I go any further, I know people are supposed to be brought up that thinking, oh, well, Cags is losing eligibility.

[SPEAKER_02]: He probably is in some leagues.

[SPEAKER_02]: Some of he, I think he keeps it like Yahoo and stuff, but now I want to talk about him here, [SPEAKER_02]: just because you know, outfield is so loaded, probably harder to fit him into that episode, but he might end up losing eligibility obviously with Vinny P at first, but we'll see, maybe he keeps, you know, plays enough as as Vinny P's kind of back up to to keep that eligibility, but you know, Kaglyone, you know, really it comes down to like, if you could look at one metric as like, what's the issue?

[SPEAKER_02]: It's that chase, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: And that's always been his Achilles heel coming up through the minor leagues back in the days at Florida.

[SPEAKER_02]: And then, you know, that came through in spades in this first major league stand with 30 and a half percent chase rate.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, the context skills are actually good, you know, above average zone contact rate, you know, overall contact rates tick below average but not bad by any means.

[SPEAKER_02]: You think you see guy hitting 157 [SPEAKER_02]: terrible cave rate.

[SPEAKER_02]: No, I mean, again, he's above average zone contact right in a round league average overall contact and strike up rate as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's just so damn aggressive that, you know, it limits him because, you know, while he went putting the bat on the ball, if he's hitting the ball out of the zone, it's not, you know, overly hard contact.

[SPEAKER_02]: And that makes his average EV lower than it probably should.

[SPEAKER_02]: Hard hit rate lower than he's capable of.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's capable of being like that 50 clusters of heart hit rate 93 94 average EV guy, if he ever were to learn some patience, and I might even say and get to like, you know, one soda levels, but just cut that chase rate by like four or five per second.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's like the low 30s or something like that.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that would just do absolute wonders.

[SPEAKER_02]: for cackling on so yeah right now it is just value has dropped off because it's the what have done for me lately you know mentality and you know when when these prospects come up and don't immediately hit the ground running and it's like oh well maybe they're not good or something like that.

[SPEAKER_02]: Prospect development is not linear, growth is not linear.

[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, cags has his issues, absolutely, but there's still a ton of upside here.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, you're given that, you know, the value is so low right now in the price tag along with it is probably pretty low in your leagues.

[SPEAKER_02]: I would also be looking to try to buy a low on cac wheel.

[SPEAKER_02]: The other one here, you know, I'm sure some people kind of heard this guy where he was ranked and wonder, you know, why does Tim Kineck hate Josh Naylor?

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that that's a question that I think I want to dive into here with you because Naylor coming off a, you know, really good year.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, anybody just expecting him to steal 30 bags again.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I would bet my house he doesn't steal 30 bags again.

[SPEAKER_02]: but coming off a 295-553-462 slash line, 20 bombs, 30 steals, 81 runs scored, and now back with the Mariners again, in 2026 and the next few years.

[SPEAKER_02]: So what made it so you didn't put Josh Nail or in your top 10 here, Tim?

[SPEAKER_01]: So, fantasy sports should be all about what are you going to do for me tomorrow, not what did you do for me yesterday.

[SPEAKER_01]: And Josh Nailer's 30 steals, like you mentioned, is never going to happen again.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has pretty consistently been like a 26 tight player, something like that, with a 260 batting average.

[SPEAKER_01]: And just to me, it's, it's a better guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like, I'm just like putting them together and it's like, okay, who do I have right above?

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Alec Burlson.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think Alec Burlson can kind of do the same exact thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, like, Burlson's a couple years younger.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that'll give them the edge.

[SPEAKER_01]: If he's in the same exact type of guy, couple years younger.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to move that direction.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I guess it's just a combination of the he's 29.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's not going to steal 30 bags again.

[SPEAKER_01]: I actually like him as a player.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's really fun.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a goofball too, like a lot's of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's like a crazy goofball, but he's a lot of fun.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I like him.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I just don't I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's just like kind of a guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know what I mean like I mean I still haven't ranked over Freddy Freeman.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I guess that tells you you know like I think Freddy Freeman might retire if I'm in this contract ends.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: So but [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like I just I don't see the repeat of the steels and that's where a lot of his fantasy value is coming from is coming from right now is from the steels and Seattle is not as good as a power park So like I don't necessarily see a 30 home run season in his future again like you had in a [SPEAKER_01]: 2024 with Cleveland, I think he's more like a 20 home or guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so if you're a 26 guy who can hit to 60, it's like there's quite a few people who can do that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it doesn't really make him special and he's 20 you know he's going to be 29.

[SPEAKER_01]: So there's younger guys who can do similar things and it's just it is what it is like it's not like I don't like him is more just I think he's kind of mid for the position.

[SPEAKER_01]: I guess for fantasy.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's really hard to know what you're going to get from Josh Nailer.

[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like year to year, nothing stays the same.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, look at, basically, all of the major categories, you know, home runs.

[SPEAKER_02]: He went from, you know, see, 2017, 31, 20, the last four years.

[SPEAKER_02]: Steel's 610-630, the batting average 308, the 243, the 292, it was 256 before that 308.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's just so much fluctuation with him where I don't know what you're going to get.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know where the steels are going to be.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he went from 6 to 30 on the steels and he went from 31 down to 20 home runs.

[SPEAKER_02]: I just don't know what you're going to get.

[SPEAKER_02]: Like what?

[SPEAKER_02]: the twenty twenty six version of Josh Taylor is going to be though he has shown some you know obviously some good here and there's in different variations over the years you know under the hood is actually stayed pretty consistent I mean he's above average but not gotty power by any means though he did have his new max EV personal high.

[SPEAKER_02]: this past year, it's just under one 18, but heart hit rates have been chilling, you know, 40 to 42 percent in the last five years.

[SPEAKER_02]: It keeps the K rate and check doesn't only walk that much to the OPP, you know, it's probably not as high as it should be, but above average contact.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he's solid.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I get what you're saying.

[SPEAKER_02]: he's definitely an interesting one where he feels like the the least sexy of the top options is because none of the metrics under the hood, there's not a huge power you'd expect from first base, but I think I'll always value this upcoming year.

[SPEAKER_02]: We'll really hinge on that.

[SPEAKER_02]: How many steals he gives yet?

[SPEAKER_02]: At least, you know, it's a product of his zero because he's at least run some, you know, even if his sprint speed is absolutely terrible.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's he showed that willingness to run, even if it's not 30 again, which again, I would very much bet against.

[SPEAKER_02]: Even if it's like 10, 11, 12, you know, which is a third of what he gave you this year, this past year.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, 2010, that's still pretty solid.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's just hard to, you know, figure out what your version of him, you're going to get each season.

[SPEAKER_02]: But, [SPEAKER_02]: Moving on to our last set of 10 here.

[SPEAKER_02]: We got 21 through 30 and still some, you know, pretty intriguing names here for one reason or another, but Tim, who do you got 21 through 30 in your rankings?

[SPEAKER_01]: So I have Wilson contraris 21 and I have the preface that this was before the trade.

[SPEAKER_01]: I definitely like him a lot better in Boston's lineup with a lot better players around him and a lot better stadium from to hit in.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he would definitely move up a couple of spots just based on that into that 20 range.

[SPEAKER_01]: But that's who I've got a 21 and 22.

[SPEAKER_01]: I've got Ryan Clifford 23 CJ Kafis.

[SPEAKER_01]: 24 Spencer steer and talking about steer here.

[SPEAKER_01]: I did not have Sal Stewart ranked for first basement.

[SPEAKER_01]: I know he played a lot of first base last year, but I kind of see his long-term moment third.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, I mean, maybe I'm wrong on that and they, you know, make no LV the third basement long-term, but I didn't place him as a first base, my place him as a third base [SPEAKER_01]: Miguel Vargas, Tommy White, Nolan Shanwell, Luis Soriahs, and Tristan Causes.

[SPEAKER_02]: Good old Tristan Cases.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, for me, I got Andrew Vaughn, 21, Burlson, 22, Alkbaum, 23, was probably the least exciting option on this entire top 30.

[SPEAKER_02]: But Colkheet, 24, Menzardo, 25, could be Mayo, 26, Cases at 27.

[SPEAKER_02]: Spencer Steer at 28, Jonathan Long at 29.

[SPEAKER_02]: And Charlie Condon at 30.

[SPEAKER_02]: And this takes me to a brighter on 250.

[SPEAKER_02]: in my overall dynasty ranking.

[SPEAKER_02]: So right in the middle of my top 500 overall.

[SPEAKER_02]: But again, there are some fun names in this section of rankings.

[SPEAKER_02]: Let's start with a guy who kind of alluded to a little bit earlier, Kobe Mayo.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, [SPEAKER_02]: guy that was starting to get a little bit of some consistent run down the stretch last year and he was okay, you know, not great, not bad waiting the season of the overall slash line to 17 299 388 not the greatest, but you know, he did hit 301 in September.

[SPEAKER_02]: So in five home runs too.

[SPEAKER_02]: So really some a little bit of hype was gaining for him entering this year again, [SPEAKER_02]: They got Pesayo, probably DHing, Adley's back.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I catcher, so you know, which boost Pesayo primarily to DH.

[SPEAKER_02]: So now it's like, all right, where does Mayo fit?

[SPEAKER_02]: It's not going back to third because they got Jordan Westburg there.

[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe if Westburg is heard again, that could be an option.

[SPEAKER_02]: I guess if they even want to explore that.

[SPEAKER_02]: But outside of him being traded or an injury, [SPEAKER_02]: We're back to kind of playing the waiting game with Mayo to see when he can get some playing time.

[SPEAKER_02]: So at this point, I know we were going to have him in like that 25 or 25 range of our rankings here.

[SPEAKER_02]: Would you be looking to buy low on Kobe Mayo right now in a dash of Lake Tim?

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it, I mean, it definitely depends on the price, but if you can get him for next and nothing.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'll see, yes, because I still think that the odds are, there's a very good chance to get traded still.

[SPEAKER_01]: I want to say, if the Orioles could still use some more pitching, I still think that there's a chance that he gets traded for a pitcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: and that will free him up and you already mentioned like I was going to mention it but you already mentioned it the last month of the season hit the Rio 1 393 548 with five bombs so that's over his last 84 plate appearances so he was like starting to like finally get it and catch on yeah I mean he's a little lucky 386 babbit during that time span but even if you have a 270 batting average and you're doing something similar that's [SPEAKER_01]: Good, that's like on the track that we were seeing from the miners from because he was so good in the miners and I don't think he's a quadruple player and this is coming from this is coming from my fscores still my fscores don't even like him so even like my model doesn't like him but like I'm just like I saw what he was doing in the miners and he's better than this there's going to be a point where he can get it I like I hope I mean there's still a chance he doesn't but if he gets consistent playing time, I think he's going to figure it out [SPEAKER_01]: And he's a good trade chip.

[SPEAKER_01]: He hasn't lost all his value right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: The Orioles could still trade him for a pretty good picture, I think.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if they hold him for another year and he's bad, then they're gonna lose on that value.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think now if they wanna make the most with that chip that they have no spot for on their roster anymore, they should trade him this off season.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I still think that there's a very real possibility that will happen and obviously if someone's trading for Kobe Mayo, they're doing that under like the premise that he's going to be a starter for them otherwise you're not trading for him.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's kind of like where I'm coming at with my ranking is like I still think there's a lot of hope.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think someone's going to like him and put him in a good spot because we saw what happened when the Orioles like you had stowers and Norby were like nothing burgers for them.

[SPEAKER_01]: They traded in the marlins and then all of a sudden they turned into really really good players.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like find your marlins here like Kobe Mayo for for Cabrera right and then all of a sudden Kobe Mayo is getting playing time in Miami and he's got the same Stowers norby thing happening to him down there.

[SPEAKER_01]: So just got to find your Miami marlins for Kobe Mayo.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you kind of stole the word to that my mouth.

[SPEAKER_02]: I was going to mention my enemy.

[SPEAKER_02]: Like, I don't think Baltimore goes out and trades for like a cold Reagan's type, you know, but I can see them trading for Everick and Brayer, or maybe even if they want to go a little bigger, but not, you know, just the Reagan's level, like a Sandial Contra.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, it would take more than mayo to get Sandy, but Sandy's got, you know, you signed through this year with a team option for twenty twenty seven.

[SPEAKER_02]: So it wouldn't that could be a huge price tag on on Sandy, but it would if you if you get like mayo plus maybe a good pitching prospect and a lower level guy, I think something like that could get it done.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, with Miami, and I think Sandy would be great fit in Baltimore, and then you mentioned you get, because it's a plain time for Mayo in Miami, or wherever it ends up being.

[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, there could be, so, some of the other places he could go, but yeah, I am, I think it's way too early to be out on Kobe, Mayo.

[SPEAKER_02]: I get it, you know, a lot of the shine has dulled from that, you know, the former top prospect star, but he still has shown in glipses, especially in September, like we both said, that he can be a solid bat, you know, at the same time, I have cooled on my long term expectations of him, I don't think he's a bit like a stud quarter and filter, but you know, could he get to be maybe in the vicinity of like where.

[SPEAKER_02]: Turquoise in is where he's like a solid quarter infield type for you.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's hitting 242, 50, 25, 30 bombs.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think that outcome is still, you know, a possibility and not like a long shot by any means, you know, but then again, I don't think he's going to be at the top 10 option either.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, um, [SPEAKER_02]: still like Mayo and yeah I would I would buy low just given the I do think the price tag is pretty damn low right now just given the given the struggles and people might be tired of waiting around for him you know he's still only 24 that's not he's like 26 27 anything like that but [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: I definitely would still look to by low on mail given at the price tag is pretty pretty low.

[SPEAKER_02]: This, you know, a few more potential by low options in this range of rankings, Tim, and three that I wanted to kind of ask the, if you're still looking to buy low on these three guys, we've all shown some upside in various ways, but coming off kind of, you know, down [SPEAKER_02]: 20 25 seasons that Spencer steer with the reds Miguel Vargas with the white socks and Tristan Cassas with the red socks who is now kind of blocked by, you know, the recent acquisition of Wilson Contreras.

[SPEAKER_02]: So either of any of these three guys you want to maybe buy low on or maybe none of them.

[SPEAKER_02]: Kind of where are you at on these three?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I feel like if the red socks trade some outfielders and clear some room with, like, especially if they can somehow or even if they just DF, DFA, your sheet at this point, then like, I'm going to like, cost us more as a DH.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully that would keep them healthy finally because the power is real, like it's still there.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got good plate skills.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has needs playing time, and he needs health.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if he can DH, that's probably the best option for him anyway, instead of putting him out on the field.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like, I'm definitely in on buying costs, [SPEAKER_01]: Miguel Vargas was actually really underrated last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Really sneaky corner infield option.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're in like a 15 team, you know, deeper league and you need a corner infield or he's kind of a nice little option there.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think I prefer Vargas.

[SPEAKER_01]: Even though I have steer ranked ahead, I think Vargas is basically free.

[SPEAKER_01]: Steer still has like name value attached to him.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you're going to have to like pay a little bit more of a price to get him.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think Vargas right now is more or less like [SPEAKER_01]: free.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like a pretty nice option.

[SPEAKER_01]: Same thing with the cost as if the right stocks can clear that room then that's like such a screaming buy like that's one of the bigger screaming buys in the in the position.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I want to say it's a screaming by for Cassus and on talent it is.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm just really, really concerned with this durability.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's been all these weird fluke injuries where yeah, because I, oh, it was it was fluke, but at the same time, I just got to wonder with his body type, but I'm, and I'm not saying that he's out of shape by any means, but he's like that big, [SPEAKER_02]: lumbering frame where I feel like this the injury risk is a bit higher on these guys and he's already shown that as such a young age.

[SPEAKER_02]: She got a wonder, is that something that kind of always sticks around with him where he's just, you know, got that you can't count on to play 1450 plus games.

[SPEAKER_02]: And obviously the path to playing that for him right now is a bit murky.

[SPEAKER_02]: I also would, you know, she just fine.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's just he kind of just is clogging up a spot on this team.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's one of the, oh, we don't want to have, you know, one guy locked in the DH, you know, with Davers and I was like, okay, what you saw of Yoshida who you don't play on the outfield.

[SPEAKER_02]: And not just because there's too many options because he's not a good feeler, so it's kind of like, you know, the guy that he's a square peg in the round hole on this Red Sox team and if he was gone, nothing against his, you should excuse a fine player and all, but you know, if he was gone and don't fix a lot of things for Boston, including, you know, maybe Cassus D.

H.

So I'm still a Cassus guy.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, people know, I'm always a Cassus guy.

[SPEAKER_02]: One of my probably worst takes ever was, you know, saying that Cassus was going to be above flat junior.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, as you know, that or my colonic take one of those two or my worst ever, that I've made as an analyst, but hey, you can't win them all, but yeah, I mean, I said those things about Cases for a reason, yeah, I was wrong on on to that level, but you know, there's still a lot of good under the hood with Cases he walks at a good clip, you know, and gets on base and has that power just contact as little iffy, but [SPEAKER_02]: I still like him a lot and he's given kind of what I'm saying with me, I was given how low the price tag is.

[SPEAKER_02]: Why not if it doesn't work out?

[SPEAKER_02]: You don't, you don't, you know, I could lose any sleepover at, you know, you probably didn't give a lot to get him, but if it does work out, that's a pretty good return on investment.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, I'd be fine buying low on him.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, the other two, I'm like, I'm not opposed to steer of Vargas either.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, steer, I've cooled on, you know, some of the, you know, he hasn't really hit the ball super hard, though the other ball park absolutely helps.

[SPEAKER_02]: But, [SPEAKER_02]: You know Vargas, I feel like if he got out of the white socks, he would help, but I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon.

[SPEAKER_02]: But since the price tag on three is pretty low right now, I'm not opposed to any of them, but I had to pick one.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'd go cast first, then Vargas, then steer right now, but not opposed to buying low on any of the three in general.

[SPEAKER_02]: All right, let's talk about one more guy each year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Our favorite buy at this first base position.

[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it's someone we've already talked about that you want to go deeper on or someone we have not talked about yet.

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, who's a big buy for you right now at this first base spot, Tim?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so I'm going to kind of preface that I hate having a bad first basement.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I always want to go for a good first basement.

[SPEAKER_01]: Upper tier first basement that I think is a good value right now is so restaurant and a big part of that is just because Kurt's has like completely overshadowed him.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it almost makes him just like a like a really really.

[SPEAKER_01]: kind of this kind of player when he shouldn't be.

[SPEAKER_01]: He had a really good year last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So for a guy's in that there'll be now a soldier's drum.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to give you a prospect real quick, Ryan Clifford to Metz didn't bring a lot to go back.

[SPEAKER_01]: To Jorge Planco at first, I don't know how that's going to work out.

[SPEAKER_01]: So Ryan Clifford is on the verge tons of power there.

[SPEAKER_01]: He could almost be like the next Peter Lanzo for the Metz, which I'm sure that was like part [SPEAKER_01]: So I'm sure that's part of the reasoning of not extending a lot zone of other years that they had to end like right in the wings.

[SPEAKER_01]: So MLB Soters shown and I'll give you prospect right Clifford.

[SPEAKER_02]: I liked that a lot.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm a big Soters show him guys.

[SPEAKER_02]: Especially the last year or so is I agreed his his season.

[SPEAKER_02]: Though he started the hot got cold and then kind of finished up pretty well.

[SPEAKER_02]: Definitely got overshadowed by Nick Curry.

[SPEAKER_02]: Even like a Jacob Wilson was getting more kind of, you know, hype and buzz then.

[SPEAKER_01]: Then Soto Sharm was so yeah, I feel I guess he's in blue under the radar a good bit He had a he had it in the second half here get a 303 58 495 slash Yeah, nobody even knows because Kurt was so good Like nobody even knows how good Soto Sharm actually was like right behind it Yeah, he's like he's like the Robin now.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's like Kurt's is Robin so it's like everyone's just gonna forget about him So it makes him look great by [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, because, you know, Kurt's was, you know, putting up like Barry Pond's ask numbers here and over the final four months of the season, nobody kind of knew what so to start misdoing.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, that's why I love taking advantage of the guys that just get overshadowed.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, see, in the prospect of ranks where, you know, it's a guy that maybe he's like back in, top 100 guy, but the system has like three top 30 guys and, you know, like, oh, hey, this guy's pretty good too, but everyone's talking about those guys, you know, those guys can be some good value.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, [SPEAKER_02]: Um, that's kind of the case with Sota some at the MLB level, and I like Cliff or two.

[SPEAKER_02]: I saw him in double A at this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Definitely some good power there for sure.

[SPEAKER_02]: So good, some good picks there.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to go to Jonathan Arranda, who had, you know, was limited to 422.

[SPEAKER_02]: Peter Pierce's last year.

[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, pound for pound was one of the better first base when offensively this past season.

[SPEAKER_02]: 14 home runs.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's not going to give you any species.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's 100% reliant on the bat, but it's a pretty damn good bat.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, XBA and X lug are among the best in the league at a 54 and a half percent hard hit rate.

[SPEAKER_02]: 93 mile an hour average, except velocity and a runner in a 13 percent barrel rate.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, key rate, you know, it's fine 25 percent, a little bit above average league, uh, walk rate at 9.7 percent.

[SPEAKER_02]: Contact rates, you know, a little bit better than any average overall, a little bit worse in zone, but not bad by any means.

[SPEAKER_02]: And it's maybe the average goes down, I don't think he's, you know, above 300 again, but I don't think he's a drop down to, like, 25260 either.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's about like a 270, 280 guy.

[SPEAKER_02]: especially given the quality of contact.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you get to say healthy for an entire year, I think 2530 home runs is possible.

[SPEAKER_02]: For Randa, we get to see him play enough and there's some split concerns here as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: He did hit 274 against lefties with a 370, it'll be P against them.

[SPEAKER_02]: Only one home run and four extra base hits total.

[SPEAKER_02]: in 98 play appearances.

[SPEAKER_02]: So there's some concerns there, and you know, Tampa Bay loves to mix and match and play their platoons, the splits and all that, so you know, him getting 650 play appearances is probably slim, but give me like 55, 55, 75 play appearances.

[SPEAKER_02]: That could put you a 23, 24 home runs of the 280 average.

[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I don't like him as much as I like like Michael Bush, but if you want to, you know, back in first base, starting first baseman, high in, quarter in field guy, I think it ran against kind of settled into that range and still 27 years old, so still on the younger side.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I like him as a decent value bud, given the fact that he missed some time last year, and I don't think his season kind of got to recognize as much as it probably should have as well, but [SPEAKER_02]: Randa for me as my freak out here or my you know my buy I should say I actually want to do one last thing What a game with you real quick that I just thought up just talking about these first basement and given all the big names here, Tim I'm gonna list off a few names here.

[SPEAKER_02]: You tell me when their careers are said and done will this guy be in the Hall of Fame All right, I'm okay.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm okay.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not gonna do the young guys.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm gonna do the 30 plus year old guys I'm not doing flat [SPEAKER_01]: No, all right.

[SPEAKER_02]: Brafiel Devers.

[SPEAKER_01]: No.

[SPEAKER_02]: Bryce Harper.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.

[SPEAKER_02]: Matt Olsen.

[SPEAKER_02]: No.

[SPEAKER_02]: All right, so only Harper there is a yes for you.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm assuming you're just a yes-to-efforty for you, man.

[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I would walk.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm kind of the, I'm, I think if a lawn zo gets the 500, [SPEAKER_02]: I think he'll probably get in and assume there's no, you know, Roy Dalgation's in the next five, six years.

[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, I think Harper, out of the guys, the non-freeming guys is the biggest lock there.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think I think the others have a shot.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's obviously how the rest of their career goes, but they get up near five-end home runs and they have a shot.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, it just depends on how many years they all end up playing because guys are retiring earlier than ever and Alonso broke in as a 24 year old so like yeah, like is that late?

[SPEAKER_01]: No, but for Hall of Fame class it almost might be I feel like [SPEAKER_01]: We're running to a period where if you for a Hall of Famer, do you have to debut now at 2021, 22?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, just to pile up the compiling stats because they're not going to play to 40 as, you know, the way that they used to.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're not, they don't have to stare at self and play to 40 anymore.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like, yeah, can they play to 40 as well?

[SPEAKER_01]: No, it's not going to happen.

[SPEAKER_01]: The guys are going to be dropping off like I said, like 35, 36, 37.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if they're coming up at 24, it just less years means less counting stats.

[SPEAKER_01]: And like you said like five you hit 500 home runs.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, you're shoe in for the whole thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you had 400 not necessarily like 400 home runs, you have to do a lot of really good things besides just the home runs to to get it.

[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, you know, like, do God, like several guys are like in that low to 400 home run range that haven't gotten in.

[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, this imagine like, you know, with Alonzo starting a little bit later, imagine if if Aaron judge started before he was 25, I mean, he's already on he already could get the 600 home runs as is, but imagine if he debuted like 21 22 and had like another, what, 157 home runs out of he could be judge could be over 500 right now.

[SPEAKER_02]: if he started like three, four years earlier, which is a scary to think about.

[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, that's the thing.

[SPEAKER_02]: Somebody's these older debut guys, unfortunately, but.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, combined Mike Trout's 20s and Aaron Judges 30s into one player and best player of all time right there.

[SPEAKER_02]: But that is going to wrap us up, Tim.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you so much for coming on to talk first based dynasty ranks with me.

[SPEAKER_02]: Pro get out of here, anything you want to plug that you have going on here?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so on the X machine, we just released the top 150 prospects for me.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you can find that of course, like I've got like slow dribble content coming out sneak peeks stuff like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: But if you want the full thing now, you can subscribe to MLB data warehouse and then you'll get all the write ups rankings F scores all that stuff on MLB data warehouse to sign up and then also over there.

[SPEAKER_01]: I've got a draft cheat sheet.

[SPEAKER_01]: So for 29.99 cheaper than a lunch out, you can get all my dynasty rankings and you can get all the F scores for all the dynasty rankings for it's for redraft, for three year dynasty, for five year dynasty, over 700 prospects ranked.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you get FYP rankings, international rankings, you get all that stuff, only 29.99 over on MLB data warehouse.

[SPEAKER_02]: got the tool shared, got the warehouse, a lot of good stuff there, thanks Tim, great stuff, you know, love the work that you do, everyone should be following, Tim and the work that he does, again, on X at BNCA, Spall, I'll be back with you all again next week for a second and base, got a couple of guests on it for those episodes as well, but until then, everyone take care.