[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.

[SPEAKER_00]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.

[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome into another episode of the Toolshed podcast brought to you by Rotabauer.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is episode four, oh, eight.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining me.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Eric Cross.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can find me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the show is at Toolshed Pod.

[SPEAKER_01]: Joining me in the Toolshed today.

[SPEAKER_01]: He is a baseball content creator for NBC Sports and Rotal World.

[SPEAKER_01]: And also one of the hosts of the on the corner podcast three time FSWA award winner.

[SPEAKER_01]: with a great first name and guess the best part about him, great first name, Mr.

Eric Samolsky spelled the same way as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: At S-A-M-S-K-I-N-Y-C on Twitter, Eric, how are you doing bud?

[SPEAKER_03]: Good Eric, thanks for having me on.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm happy to do this back when Sammy and I did catch his corner and you came on to do some prospect stuff one year.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's been like three or four years then, so I'm happy to jump on here in the tool shed with you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Man, that has been a few years as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, dude, time just flies.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, especially now we're both parents and stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, man, it just seems like it goes so much quicker now than it used to.

[SPEAKER_03]: But yeah, I always felt like time flew and then you have a kid and it's like, it just not only does it fly, but it doesn't, it doesn't make sense.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's like, thanks forever, but it also goes fast.

[SPEAKER_03]: I don't really know how to explain it.

[SPEAKER_01]: No, that I hundred percent know where you're coming from that is very accurate.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I make that make much sense to people out there.

[SPEAKER_01]: They don't have kids, but yeah, it's one hundred percent accurate.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's finally time to, you know, I've been on so many podcasts.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a lot of like Chris is in the industry.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, just you doing this with Chris Clague for the longest time where I was outnumbered.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we have like another Chris on the podcast.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'd be outnumbered.

[SPEAKER_01]: But now I got another Eric with me.

[SPEAKER_01]: So finally, a podcast with multiple Eric's on it here.

[SPEAKER_01]: So [SPEAKER_01]: So give me a fun episode though, you know, I did some intriguing young hitters last episode.

[SPEAKER_01]: Our trip episodes ago last Monday and today we're doing the pitching side of it got a lot of fun names.

[SPEAKER_01]: Young names that are kind of emerging breaking out.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's going to be a really fun episode.

[SPEAKER_03]: But before we get into it, I'm excited to get into it again with these guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, a lot of good names here.

[SPEAKER_01]: For I get into those though, get the usual housekeeper out of the way here.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can find all of my content either on Rotabauer or over on my Patreon, which is toolsifance.com.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you enjoy the podcast, please write in a review and make sure you check out all of the great content over on Rotabauer with Rotabauer's MLB Premium Pass, gain access to expert tools and advice from proven winners, import your leagues with TeamSync and get expert advice customized for your league specific settings.

[SPEAKER_01]: with Rournal Baller's line of assistant tools, free agent, finder, prop picks, and the number one DFS line up optimizer.

[SPEAKER_01]: Our premium pass goes with a hundred percent money back guarantee, go to rournalard.com slash radio and use the discount code toolshed at checkout.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, so we're actually going to start with an older guy who was just injured here, but it kind of leads into like a little bit of a conversation here before we start, I kind of breaking down specific players here.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, there's been a ton of injuries this year as we know the latest big one Zach Wheeler who's probably up for the season at this point with that blood clots in his upper extremity as they said it originally.

[SPEAKER_01]: But obviously we are been the poster child for consistency at the most consistent ace year in year out, you know, you know, he is a little bit older now.

[SPEAKER_01]: And now he goes down for the season, but just so many injuries once again, and it feels like there's more and more every year on the pitching side.

[SPEAKER_01]: So Eric, you know, has how is your approach to like building a pitching staff for fantasy changed over the last couple of years, just given that the increase, again, every year seems that we have more and more pitching injuries, how is your kind of a focus on how you attack a pitching staff changed?

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, so I'll say this with the caveat that it's still in flux.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's like one of my big takeaways from this year is that I was really unsatisfied with the way the pitching performed on a lot of my teams.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I my one of my big offseason tasks for myself is like looking looking over that.

[SPEAKER_03]: What did I where did I go wrong?

[SPEAKER_03]: What could I have done differently?

[SPEAKER_03]: There are two things I know right off the bat.

[SPEAKER_03]: One is I [SPEAKER_03]: Well, I still believe that because so many pictures are getting injured, it's okay to lean into risk to a certain extent, assuming that guys are going to get hurt.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's just gonna happen.

[SPEAKER_03]: And avoiding the, you know, if you had avoided Jacob to Graham or Brian Wu this year, because you were like, hey, those guys are bound to fall apart, that didn't happen.

[SPEAKER_03]: And those guys have been tremendous value.

[SPEAKER_03]: It is a role of the dice, but I don't think you should avoid it.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think I leaned in a little too fully.

[SPEAKER_03]: I had teams that had Shane McClanahan, but also had, you know, like late shares of, like in a fifteen team league, late shares of like a Scherzer or had McClanahan, but also had trying to think of like other guys who were really like injury plagued or injury question marks at the beginning of the year.

[SPEAKER_03]: Oh, [SPEAKER_03]: I had a team that had McClanahan and Sandy Alcantara because I was like, listen, both of these guys are falling.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'll take them both.

[SPEAKER_03]: If one of them becomes an SP, too, for me, that's a win.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_03]: Obviously neither one of them did.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I think there's a difference between saying, hey, I'll lean into injury risk a little bit and leaning in too far.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I trusted my ability to get pictures on the waiver wire.

[SPEAKER_03]: But I think, [SPEAKER_03]: This year was a weird picture on the way everywhere year two because some of the guys that have really stuck it out are guys that are, you know, we'll talk about one of them coming up.

[SPEAKER_03]: Sometimes like unheralded rookies who you don't think are going to be up for that long and then they're up for a while.

[SPEAKER_03]: Some of them were like, you know, these veterans that just kind of like kept chugging along for a long period of time and [SPEAKER_03]: you have to actually quick on the wire and so it just puts too much pressure on you to do that.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so, you know, that's a big thing for me and then also I think I need to attack the middle rounds.

[SPEAKER_03]: more than I did.

[SPEAKER_03]: I still believe in waiting to grab my ace.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think even if you look at what happened this year, so many of the top fifteen pictures got hurt, you know, whether you drafted Col Regans or Michael King or Chris Sale or Hunter Green or you know, we could just name so many names.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I don't think like saying, hey, I have to get that guy early makes sense.

[SPEAKER_03]: But I was taking one guy early, maybe two [SPEAKER_03]: around around like nine in ten in drafts and then just saying I'm just going to throw a bunch of flyers unlike the max mires jackliders.

[SPEAKER_03]: Gavin Williams is of the world and I'll round out the the arsenal like that or the pit the you know the pitch.

[SPEAKER_03]: the rotation like that.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I think where you get, you know, the guys around where like, you know, Christopher Sanchez was going this year, you know, your Joe Ryan's way overperformed where he was being drafted.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think hitting that kind of like starting pitcher, twenty five to like forty five or fifty glob and just like getting a bunch of guys in that range with your one ace, I think maybe is the the way to go about it next year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, pitching, it always feels like I'm chasing my tail.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's like, I feel like I'm always behind when it comes to pitching and I'll change my strategy one year, you know, use it the next and then I have to keep changing every single year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, to your point, like a lot of these big names either were hurt this year for, you know, various periods of time.

[SPEAKER_01]: or just have fallen off.

[SPEAKER_01]: I guess, look at the, you know, that's part of the ADP from the NFBC super quick here.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, obviously, skiing, school ball, you know, fine wheelers now on the IL Gilbert miss some time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Crochet has been great.

[SPEAKER_01]: Chris sales, but on the IL, Corbin Burns, obviously out for the year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Jacob DeGrom, you know, weirdly an office band, one of the, you know, we're healthy guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now is that time on the I.L.C.

[SPEAKER_01]: has been super weird and consistent, Reagan has been her, like Yamamoto has been great, but it's like, you know, King, you know, he's been out.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's been a lot of these guys are, you know, I swiss it off more guys that have been hurt or, you know, poor performance than guys that are like acting like ACEs this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's just the top, you know, ten, fifteen guys or so.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I feel like, you know, a lot of times we talk about like real life baseball and talk about how important pitching depth is for Major League team.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's like, [SPEAKER_01]: becoming even more important now.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you know, you only have so many roster spots, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll get like you can just like load up on pitching that way.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then you have like no bench hitters, something like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So there's always that balance.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I feel like just getting more pitching up that you feel good about.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, because you know, like, all right, if I get like these eight guys, you got to bank it.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, one or two of them are going to just not perform the way we think one or two of them or more are going to hurt.

[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe [SPEAKER_01]: three or four out of that eight are actually what you think or better.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I feel like this increased depth and with us, you know, a redraft league, dynasty league, you know, I've had team, like I did one of my dynasty league teams that was a second place last year and I was like building up for a championship around this year, thought I had a great team.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I've had every, you know, grace of my regas, you know, basically off of the year.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's like all these guys where I'm like, all right, my hitting was still good this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: My pitching's with absolutely its roaches.

[SPEAKER_01]: The point where I'm like now like ninth or tenth out of eight teams in that league.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that that that that that depth is huge.

[SPEAKER_03]: I just did a quick look at fan graphs player radar and we know that these things are in exact science, you know, player raiders also tend to value wins a lot obviously because they count for fantasy, but they're not sticky year over year, etc.

[SPEAKER_03]: But just for, you know, for conversation sake I looked.

[SPEAKER_03]: In the top fifteen starting pitchers, only four of them had an ADP in the top ninety five picks.

[SPEAKER_03]: Joe Ryan Hunter Brown were just outside of that, but ninety five picks.

[SPEAKER_03]: Those guys obviously scuba wheeler, skins, and digram.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you go to the top twenty, it's six guys in the top twenty.

[SPEAKER_03]: that were drafted within the top ninety five picks in a draft.

[SPEAKER_03]: Wow.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's, that means basically if you hadn't taken a starting pitcher in the first ninety five overall picks of a draft, you had, we said, what six out of twenty, so fourteen of the guys that went after that have been top twenty overall starters and fantasy.

[SPEAKER_03]: So yeah, like you could pick a starting pitcher early, but you know, and listen, some of these guys like, [SPEAKER_03]: You know, Hunter Brown, Joe Ryan, Eavaldi, Christopher Sanchez, Freddie Pral to the Carlos McDonald, Drew Rasmussen, Robbie Ray, like those are guys that we know are good.

[SPEAKER_03]: they've been they have been good for a long time.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so maybe if you're loading up your team with guys that are just like really solid and you're not chasing the jacklighters of the world and you're not like saying hey, I have to I have to reach to get Pablo Lopez like just take the guys that are solid that fall down.

[SPEAKER_03]: And if you attack the middle rounds like I was saying like you could have built a staff of [SPEAKER_03]: you know, guys in like that, hundred and thirty eighty p-range.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like if I had built a staff that was Nick Povetta, Christopher Sanchez, Brian Wu, Carlos Rodon, like that's a pretty dominant fantasy staff and none of those guys went inside the top hundred and thirty picks.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: No, it's it's crazy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I have a lot of shares of Sanchez this year as well, so thankfully he's been making a saving grace and [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it just feels like, you know, like, I think I can apply this to both read draft and dynasty, where even my dynasty league teams, like, I don't carry a lot of pitching prospects.

[SPEAKER_01]: I like to try to trade for pitching that I know can help me out and get those E of all of you guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those, like Nick Prevedas, but you know, you missed a little bit of time, I think these series well, but Nick Prevedas been really solid too.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's like these, you know, maybe they're not the, you know, they're a little bit older than the super sexy picks, but [SPEAKER_01]: I've been realizing that getting those sexy picks and fantasy, I had a lot of McLean hand this year too.

[SPEAKER_01]: I've always been a McLean hand guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I love McLean hand.

[SPEAKER_01]: That killed me this year too.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you can obviously, as you mentioned earlier, you can't avoid risks with pitching.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's basically impossible.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then even the guys you think are super safe, like Sandy was super like one of those super safe guys for a few years.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then all of a sudden, look at the last two years for him, both performance and just missing time with injury.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's it's you can't avoid the risk, but I think it's building up those guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: I you mentioned I'm going to put it those super solid guys like the evolve days and and the you know Matthew boys in the world and now I was avoiding Matthew boy because of all his previous injury issues and look you know he's been what is he a top yeah top twenty arm this year so right now so yeah he's definitely he was one of those guys in there.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think we hit a certain point where you just have to say [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, he might get injured, but I took him, you know, pick two nine the end.

[SPEAKER_03]: So who cares?

[SPEAKER_03]: Like right.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't pick deal kind of leave.

[SPEAKER_01]: It kind of alleviates a good chunk of the risk.

[SPEAKER_01]: And at those points.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, pitching though, very, very fickle.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's I love it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I love talking pitching.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just a fresher as me to know end at the same time.

[SPEAKER_01]: It is listen.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'll just say like this like pseudo plugs and article of mine, but I think it also is relevant to what we're talking about.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like I [SPEAKER_03]: Talk to a lot of pictures about the idea of feel, because we hear this idea of feel, right, his feel for the pitch left him, you know, whatever.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I talked to a lot of pictures.

[SPEAKER_03]: I talked to the AAA pitching coach, the Astros.

[SPEAKER_03]: I talked to the pitching coordinator for the Rangers who, you know, basically does all of their pitching is there.

[SPEAKER_03]: And now is their major league bullpen coach.

[SPEAKER_03]: And basically, everybody just said, pictures are going to lose feel.

[SPEAKER_03]: It happens every year.

[SPEAKER_03]: We know it's going to happen.

[SPEAKER_03]: The question is, when does it happen and how long does it happen for?

[SPEAKER_03]: And there are some tricks to try to get it back, but it sometimes takes, it sometimes you can get it back within a start, sometimes you get it back within three starts, sometimes you don't get it back for months.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so that's just the nature of what we're trying to do here, trying to evaluate talent.

[SPEAKER_03]: in a position in a skill set where even the pitchers themselves know that for some rhyme or reason, they're just not going to be able to throw their pitches and they just hope that it's not for a long time.

[SPEAKER_03]: And that's like it that is a moving target.

[SPEAKER_03]: There's no way that you're going to know when that's going to happen, how long it's going to happen for.

[SPEAKER_03]: There's no other [SPEAKER_03]: I don't believe there's any other athletic endeavor in a professional level where the athlete themselves knows that in the course of a given season, they are going to lose the ability to do the thing that they do and they know it's going to happen.

[SPEAKER_03]: They don't know when it's going to happen and they just have to hope that it's not going to happen for long.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: Imagine saying like, oh, yeah, Steph Curry's going to forget how I shoot three is halfway through this season.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, like, it's not like that.

[SPEAKER_03]: And he knows it's going to happen.

[SPEAKER_03]: And he hopes it's for a game, but maybe it's for a whole week, you know, whatever.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like that doesn't happen.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like they might have a cold night, but, you know, yeah, it's it's a wild phenomenon.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like all of a sudden Joe Burrow has the yips and can't throw the slant route to a slot receiver.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, it's like, yeah, you could say it's so weird.

[SPEAKER_01]: A pitching baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: I love it.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's so like the smallest little thinking go wrong and it's completely derail what a player is trying to do.

[SPEAKER_01]: Whether it be pitching or hitting.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's why I love baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's so many nuances of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like more than any of the sporting.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm maybe old bias because I'm a baseball guy, but yeah, that's why it's fun to dig into.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's start digging in some of those names now.

[SPEAKER_01]: We got about ten eleven names or so on the list here all which are kind of mostly on the younger side kind of we didn't go with a lot of the studs here just to talk with some intriguing names that kind of [SPEAKER_01]: popped up this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll start in the American League, Noah Cameron of the Kansas City Royals.

[SPEAKER_01]: I got that was a decent prosper.

[SPEAKER_01]: Never like a super highly ranked prospect, but always got it in that top one, fifty, two hundred range.

[SPEAKER_01]: First, seventeen starts for him.

[SPEAKER_01]: Really good.

[SPEAKER_01]: Two point four seven ERA, one point zero six whip.

[SPEAKER_01]: It hasn't only been striking out too many guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: K rate little under twenty percent and nice walk rate though a seven point one.

[SPEAKER_01]: percent, but he's got to kind of, you know, as exceeded a lot of people's expectations, so far this year, and you know, there's another good, good, you know, the royalist of that, I think a good job with pitching over the last half decade or so, and Cameron's another example of that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, how do you kind of looking at Cameron and this first, you know, hunt nearly hundred innings for him?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because again, the race shows are really good, not really checking out a lot of guys, kind of how you are valuing some of a profile here.

[SPEAKER_03]: Well, it's an incredibly difficult profile to evaluate because nothing about Noah Cameron jumps off the page.

[SPEAKER_03]: He has a true five pitch mix and he has really good command of basically all five of those pitches.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so he is able to get by because he spots his pitches well, sequences his pitches well, gets hitters off the barrel.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I worry a little bit when I look at a picture and I don't say, oh, but they have, you know, X in their back pocket.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's like a really, really good pitch that they can go to.

[SPEAKER_03]: The cutter has flashed at the times for Noah Cameron.

[SPEAKER_03]: The change up has flashed at the times for Noah Cameron.

[SPEAKER_03]: But it really just is a deep pitch mix and really good command.

[SPEAKER_03]: And like guys like Max Freed made a great career of that, you know, pre blister.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so maybe Noah Cameron can do the same.

[SPEAKER_03]: It is just, it is a profile that makes me nervous because I, if the command goes for any reason.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think the whole house of cards unravels.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I do think that like this twenty percent strikeout rate you're seeing from him is kind of him.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like I don't think that you're like, oh, if he just does this, he's a twenty five percent strikeout rate guy.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so that will always limit his fantasy ceiling.

[SPEAKER_03]: But he's a really the fact that he's doing this at, you know, as a rookie is impressive.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I would certainly take shares of him in years to come.

[SPEAKER_03]: I just don't know that there's like another level that we're not yet seeing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and with Cameron, it's kind of weird, too, is someone that kind of wrote about him and followed his time as a prospect.

[SPEAKER_01]: I thought he was going to be a guy that had a good decent strike out, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: But maybe, you know, the E-Ray and Whipper a little bit on the higher end, he's been complete one eighty of that so far.

[SPEAKER_01]: with the royals, but yeah, I'm not I'm not sure you see you maybe he takes up to around a league average, you know, twenty two ish percent K rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: I can see that.

[SPEAKER_01]: He does have thirty nine percent with right on the change, you know, curve ball is thirty percent, you know, sliders twenty nine percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he can't miss bets with those pitches a little bit and those are [SPEAKER_01]: bit primarily his big strikeout pitches there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those have all but ten of his strikeout so far but yeah I don't see like I thought he'd be like a twenty five twenty six percent favorite guy when he was a prospect.

[SPEAKER_01]: Not right sure I see that anymore but you know to your point man is good so maybe he can keep the ratio maybe not I don't think there to be this good right but could you be like a you know mid threes here a guy whip run fifteen one twenty with a you know around a league average carry I mean could you be like a [SPEAKER_01]: I hate to hate to use this copy every time I have a guy like this, but like a pretty pretty singer type where it's like, I'd rather have top seventy five ish arm, you know?

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I'd rather him than Brady Singer, though, to be honest with you.

[SPEAKER_03]: But yeah, listen, I think your point is really good that like the breakers, you know, the secondary pitches have swing and miss upside.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think I am beginning to learn that when there's not a good foreseamer to set up those really good breaking balls that causes the pitchers to have to use a lot of the breaking balls early and in even counts or, you know, when they're behind in the count, et cetera, [SPEAKER_03]: And so that does the more you see the change up, the more you see the curveball, the more you see the slider because you have to use that pitch to set up to get ahead in the count because you can't throw your forcing fastball, which is ninety two miles an hour and you know, poor extension and gets hit hard and whatever.

[SPEAKER_03]: Then I think it makes the secondary pitch is a little less effective than we would think from just looking at the numbers.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so you look at the numbers and you say, hey, all of this stuff could lead to a strikeout profile.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then it's like, OK, but he doesn't have the pitch to let him get ahead in the count.

[SPEAKER_03]: So those pitches also have to be that pitch.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so that's where you, you kind of like, that's where I think you see that low K rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you know, hundred percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I always kind of, I never really use this in the analysis, but it's always fun to look at on Savanti similar pitchers based on Velo and movement, so it's going to fun.

[SPEAKER_01]: The five names for Noah Cameron are pretty fun.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, one's Robbie, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got a good year.

[SPEAKER_01]: The other four are Joey Wentz, Mitchell Parker, Kyle Freeland, and Jacob Lats.

[SPEAKER_01]: Not really the most inspiring group of arms right there, but yeah, because I do think there's more K upside here, just some degree, but again, I've got to cool it on the, you know, all he's gonna be in above average K right arm.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, if it can be loaded with three's ERA, a whip that's, you know, at least below like one point two, one point two, five range, and get that K right up a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he could still be, you know, it's a solid arm, I just don't think.

[SPEAKER_01]: and that you're looking at a guy that you're going to be, you know, using as one of your building blocks of your fantasy rotation.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's going to be at one of your top three, four guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: But physical, your SP five, six, something like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think you'll be fine with it.

[SPEAKER_03]: I agree.

[SPEAKER_03]: I agree with that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Next game here, another lefty, you know, soft tossing lefty here.

[SPEAKER_01]: But God, that's been, for the most part, pretty dominant this year, you know, especially early in the season, a little bit of a cold stretch, then his last few outings.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's Jacob Lopez of the athletics.

[SPEAKER_01]: Overall, three point three zero ERA in a one point one nine whip across eighty four and two thirds innings.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he does have a higher K rate, twenty eight point nine percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: Compared to a eight point four percent walk rates X year A kind of right line with that service E array at three point four five and a lot of red on his Savont page as well company a couple blue markers there, but a lot of red on the Savont page to more so than no camera, but now what do you bring your thoughts here on Jacob Lopez a guy that kind of [SPEAKER_01]: I came out of nowhere for the most part he was never a highly ranked prospect didn't really have a lot of success in previous years in the majors and we have a lot of time in the majors but this year he's becoming kind of one of the the bigger waiver water gems of the season so what do you make up twenty seven year old Jacob Lopez here yeah [SPEAKER_03]: I'm more in than I thought that I would be, early or on.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like, the fastball velocity is bad, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: It's a ninety one mile an hour fastball, but it gets seven feet of extension.

[SPEAKER_03]: The work that I, you know, Nick Pollock loves extension, when we talk, when we do the pituous podcast on the corner, but it is useful, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: You take a ninety one mile an hour fastball, you add elite extension, that becomes a ninety three mile an hour fastball is what it seems like to the hitter.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so that has a lot of value as a foundational pitch for him.

[SPEAKER_03]: He keeps it up in his own really well.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I like that.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then you get like a really good slider.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's a very good slider.

[SPEAKER_03]: It is obviously far more effective to lefties than righties in terms of missing bats, but it's a really good slider.

[SPEAKER_03]: has a cutter.

[SPEAKER_03]: The change up also flashes plus and he gets the change up in the zone.

[SPEAKER_03]: Well, so like that will help him against righties.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so like I think that this is a solid profile of average slightly above average forseemer elite slider pretty good change up, you know, commands the zone.

[SPEAKER_03]: I get a little worried about like [SPEAKER_03]: guys like this that are like cross body, whipish delivery pictures where I feel like a command can go pretty easily.

[SPEAKER_03]: And that I think has impacted him in the past when he's had these hot starts and then cold stretches and then, you know, the end of June early July was like a pretty bad stretch for him.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then you add in that now he pitches in a home park that is is rough.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I think Jacob Lopez is a guy that you'll [SPEAKER_03]: you'll have some rough stretches from every, every year would be my guess.

[SPEAKER_03]: But I think he is certainly a streamer when he's in good matchups.

[SPEAKER_03]: But I think you're gonna, you'd have a hard time like in a twelve team league just saying, hey, I'm gonna draft him and start him every time he's out there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, the one issue I have with Lopez, I mean, a lot of good here too.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not going to say there's not, but he has a lot of flyballs, you know, especially for, I mentioned being in a hitter friendly environment right now in West Sacramento.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then we, I'll think that the new park in Vegas will be, you know, more hit or friendly, but, you know, it sort of means to be seen.

[SPEAKER_01]: But this guy gives up, you know, is a lower ground ball rate only twenty eight percent twenty seven percent pull air rate allowed.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, luckily he doesn't have a lot of hard contact, which kind of has been his saving grace.

[SPEAKER_01]: Only a thirty few percent hard hit rate allowed, which is pretty good.

[SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned the, the command has been pretty good, you know, forseomer, cutter up, change up slider, sinker down, you know, I thought the CM start telling that sinker a little bit more maybe kid a little bit more ground balls, but yeah, definitely a lot of good here.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a guy that I vision myself even when he was going well.

[SPEAKER_01]: earlier in the year before that little, you know, cold stretch.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was like, all right, this has this has been fun, but I thought it was kind of fluky.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was like, I don't, I didn't really see him sustaining it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now he's had a couple, you know, great starts after the cold stretch.

[SPEAKER_01]: Or I'm like, start digging into him more and make all right.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe that wasn't, you know, entirely fluky and yeah, I don't think he's there be.

[SPEAKER_01]: you know, dominant top thirty arm or anything like that, but back to he can miss bass because he doesn't mix his pitch as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: But you mentioned that sliders really good.

[SPEAKER_01]: Only a two or three batting average against thirty three percent with rate, you know, forty two of a strikeout's been on that pitch.

[SPEAKER_01]: In that he can miss bass with the forseomer as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, given that extension, I think shows that goes to show like the movement profile on that the extension.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's a really good forseomer, even if it is below average velocity at ninety point seven miles an hour.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's never going to blow by him, but he gets strikeouts with it.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to nearly thirty percent wiff rate on the pitch.

[SPEAKER_01]: So definitely a lot of good here.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a weird profile, though.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm more in on him long term.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think I like him a little bit more than know a Cameron.

[SPEAKER_01]: long term and it's got a funny that we've gone from a guy that had what was Cameron's arm angle like fifty eight degrees and low passes is twenty one very different very different on some of these two guys but yeah I think I'm not like oh I got to have Jacob Lopez right like that but [SPEAKER_01]: I think I'm not as much on the, you know, thinking it's a fluke start for him.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's some legitimacy here and they keep doing these doing.

[SPEAKER_01]: And maybe he can be like a back end top fifty, you know, starting pitch and moving forward.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think that's possible.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, next guy up here will keep it right with the athletics, uh, fun, young arm, Jack Perkins, uh, variety of roles he's been used in so far, you know, some, you know, openers, some starts, some relief appearances overall, thirty three and two thirds innings, over eleven games, even as three saves mixed in there as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of thought he'd be the closer now there when they treated me similar.

[SPEAKER_01]: That hasn't really been the case, but, uh, overall, four point two A ERA, one point one three whip.

[SPEAKER_01]: ten percent walk rate and a twenty five point two percent strikeout rates got that was you know striking on a lot of guys in the upper minors and then a you know these job of that so far a lot of good metrics to when we look at his sub on page so what are you making here of jack perkins is he got you think can turn into a consistent impact arm for fantasy here [SPEAKER_03]: I wish I felt better about the depth of his arsenal.

[SPEAKER_03]: He, if you look on like his Savot page or whatever, it's six pitches, but it's really four pitches because there's like a slider and a curve ball that are barely thrown.

[SPEAKER_03]: So it's really a four pitch mix.

[SPEAKER_03]: The fast ball has [SPEAKER_03]: good velocity, but again, poor extension, poor vertical movement.

[SPEAKER_03]: So it's not a pitch that it like has slightly above average swinging strike rates, but he doesn't command it well on his own.

[SPEAKER_03]: It gets hit kind of hard.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so you're looking at a guy with four pitches with a, let's call it an average forcing fastball.

[SPEAKER_03]: despite the velocity.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so that makes me slightly nervous because there starts like the last start against the angels where you see the sweeper just crush.

[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, the sweeper was like a forty percent.

[SPEAKER_03]: He has W pitch in that game.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think it got like eight nine or ten with something, something crazy like that.

[SPEAKER_03]: And you're like, okay, that obviously that pitch can eat up writings and you love that.

[SPEAKER_03]: But [SPEAKER_03]: I wish it was a better forseemer to set that stuff up.

[SPEAKER_03]: Then again, he's twenty five.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is first year.

[SPEAKER_03]: The forseemer may never be great because of the poor extension in vertical movement unless he changes the shape of the forcing fastball, but like maybe it becomes an average pitch.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then you have in a wheat sweeper a pretty good cutter.

[SPEAKER_03]: And you know, then I feel a little better about it.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so this is another guy where like you had originally kind of put Jack later on this rundown.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I kind of feel similarly about them where I'm like, these are pictures right now that don't seem efficient to me as starters.

[SPEAKER_03]: And but I can squint and see the path forward with their growth.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so Perkins is somebody who like, I don't know how great he's going to be for the rest of this year.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think there might be some some good starts and some inconsistent starts.

[SPEAKER_03]: But if he has a whole offseason to prepare as a starter and depending on what the, you know, fastball shape looks like coming into next year.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like there's enough there that could make him a really good back of the rotation guy.

[SPEAKER_03]: But with to me with that fastball, I just don't see somebody who's like a fantasy workhorse.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, that's fair.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, Perkins kind of, you know, popped on the map a bit last couple years of the prospect.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was kind of middle the road back in twenty twenty three.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was a little bit old.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's been old for the level.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's been at last year, twenty twenty four had a sub three year A, but again, it's like, all right, he's twenty four.

[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't like a lot of excitement there.

[SPEAKER_01]: But then this year, you know, nine starts with Vegas in triple IPCL.

[SPEAKER_01]: get sixty eight strikeouts in a sub three year a cross forty four innings you know but the you know the issue with him like one thing has always been there has been a higher walker even back to his days you know he went to Louisville in the Indiana in college always had a higher walker I mean the the walker eight in college was over ten percent well over ten percent excuse me in the walker in the minor leagues [SPEAKER_01]: Just over ten percent, but he's always had a higher walk rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: Though the bad best thing building has always been there.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's always been at least the last couple years been well over a caper inning and here it was over thirty percent last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, well over thirty percent this year and the minor leagues and so far has been pretty solid in the majors, but [SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's one where, you know, he does rely a lot on that slider.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like when that pitch goes, you know, as you mentioned, it's kind of ties back to feel this going to be outing so he doesn't have a good feel for sweeper.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's this is always how it's going to go at some point.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe less than others, but [SPEAKER_01]: during those outings where he doesn't have a great feel for the sweeper, can he still miss bats, you know, with the cutter, with the change up.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that remains to be seen.

[SPEAKER_01]: The change of actually has to go with right so far, but it's only been thrown, you know, fifty times or so.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's hard to really go off of that, but will he be able to succeed when his best pitch isn't going for him?

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's the reason why I've been like, you know, I see the upside here, but I don't have any shares of Jack Perkins.

[SPEAKER_01]: I never did, you know, and and dynasty leaks either.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I mean, I think he can be, [SPEAKER_01]: decent fancy arm, but yeah, I don't think he's gonna like ever rise to the similar what you said kind of rise to the point where he's like, all right, this is an impact arm a top like forty guy that you you need to have as one of your top three or four arms.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if that's there.

[SPEAKER_03]: I do think they were right to keep him in the rotation because I think that that fastball [SPEAKER_03]: would be more of a liability in the bullpen.

[SPEAKER_03]: I just don't know that you can be a closer with a maybe an average forcing fastball despite the loss.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: I definitely agree there.

[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously they have plenty of opportunity for them now.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, obviously the athletics pitching staff is not great.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, definitely I should give him a chance to kind of run him out there rest of the season.

[SPEAKER_01]: See what they got with him entering twenty twenty six.

[SPEAKER_01]: This next guy, though, very [SPEAKER_01]: very interesting arm.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how I want to describe this guy, but it's Joe Boyle with the heat Tampa Bay raise.

[SPEAKER_01]: I got that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was never super in on as a prospect for one reason.

[SPEAKER_01]: He walked the moon and then some, but that's kind of been a little bit better this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Still not great, but he's been very inconsistent with the raise so far this year flashing like, oh, this guy could be a stud.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then he looks like a dud the next couple of outings, but overall it's a four six eight ERA.

[SPEAKER_01]: One night team whip's not too bad for that in a higher ERA.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got a twenty four and a half percent strike at rate twelve point nine percent walk rate xia ray of four point oh a and this is a guy you know that does throw very very hard everything with him is hard you know four seamer averages ninety eight point six sliders ninety one point two and split or ninety three point two so literally everything from him is ninety plus miles an hour [SPEAKER_01]: So hard power pitcher, but I got that walks a lot of guys too.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll be like, you look at the kind of going back to the similar pitcher is based on bellow movement for him.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's Chase Burns, Kim Schlittler, who actually almost put on this this outline.

[SPEAKER_01]: Dylan sees Jacob the Grom and then Jack later oddly enough to kind of a weird fifth one there.

[SPEAKER_01]: But so yeah, the stuff is definitely really, really fun, but can he become, you know, a guy that you can count on as one of your fantasy starters.

[SPEAKER_01]: What do we think on him, Eric?

[SPEAKER_03]: No.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think the idea of counting on Joe Boyle for anything, I think, is the issue.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's just, it is, he is an inconsistent command guy.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think there was this notion that like the raise fixed him and listen, the raise improved him and they I love that they improved him by giving him less movement on his pitches, but they were basically like, hey, you can't command your pitch as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: So we're going to give you pitches that move a little bit less.

[SPEAKER_03]: They added the like splinter because it's like a hard, you know, it's like ninety five and so even when it drops, [SPEAKER_03]: You know, it doesn't have as much vertical movement.

[SPEAKER_03]: The slider is a hard tight slider at ninety one forcing fastballs ninety nine, but then that that's the issue, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: Everything he throws is between ninety one and ninety nine because he can't command the stuff that's like softer.

[SPEAKER_03]: He can't command those like soft curves or whatever.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I don't love a narrow velocity gap like that a narrow velocity band and [SPEAKER_03]: It's just kind of like, I don't know, you look at so many of these games and you're like, all right, the zone rate is fifty-six percent.

[SPEAKER_03]: The zone rate was forty-seven percent.

[SPEAKER_03]: The zone rate was fifty-seven percent.

[SPEAKER_03]: The zone rate was forty-two percent.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's like, you just never know if he's actually going to throw pitches in the strike zone or not.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I just think that's, I just don't know that he's going to change that.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's who he is.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I interviewed CJ K-Face of the Guardians last week when he was up in city field.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I asked him about the difference between AAA pitching and MLB pitching.

[SPEAKER_03]: And he said, honestly, the only difference I see is that even in a hidden or advanced count, [SPEAKER_03]: MLB pitchers are not going to give you a pitch over the middle of the plate.

[SPEAKER_03]: They're always going to find the corners.

[SPEAKER_03]: Good MLB pitchers are always going to find the corners.

[SPEAKER_03]: To me, that's not Joe Boyle.

[SPEAKER_03]: And that's why I think Joe Boyle was able to put up stupid numbers at AAA because he didn't have to do that because he could just throw his stuff over the middle of the plate and count on its natural movement.

[SPEAKER_03]: And he was going to be [SPEAKER_03]: dominant because he throws ninety nine and he has pitches that move in whatever.

[SPEAKER_03]: At the big league level, you can't do that.

[SPEAKER_03]: You have to hit spots.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that's led to a lot of starts where he's trying to hit corners and putting up forty two percent zone rates.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so, like, is there talent in the arm?

[SPEAKER_03]: Of course, are there going to be starts?

[SPEAKER_03]: Like that start at the beginning of the month against the Dodgers Ray through five shot out.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like, yeah, there are.

[SPEAKER_03]: I couldn't tell you when they're going to come.

[SPEAKER_03]: It reminds me a little bit of Jose Sorriano where like you look up at the end of the year and you're like man Jose Sorriano has good numbers.

[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know that I got any of those numbers because I like sat him against the Dodgers and played him against the other team and you just it's it's impossible to know when he's going to have a good start and I kind of feel like that's Joe Boyle.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, Joe Boyle, again, he's another never a guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I ranked super highly because coming into this year, I mean, the guy had a near twenty percent walk rate in over twenty percent walk rate in twenty twenty two, nearly twenty percent in twenty twenty three.

[SPEAKER_01]: And this last year at thirty nine walks in forty five and two, third, Jennings and Triple A.

To me, I'm like, you know, whatever someone's over twelve percent, I'm like, no, I'm hard out.

[SPEAKER_01]: Then it started to come down this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you mentioned, I think you put it very well.

[SPEAKER_01]: When you said they improved him and I think a lot of that came with is ability to throw less walk or they'll give up less walks but at the same time you know [SPEAKER_01]: Even with the, you know, you mentioned that kind of the tighter movement profile with his offerings, it still shows that, I mean, yet that's helped and then let's help the, you know, walk rate come down a bit, but it's still a high walk rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's still, I want to say there's like two parts to it.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's all right, the pitch movements is that care like destiny is perfect example of that where he gets so much movement that, you know, it just starts outside the zone.

[SPEAKER_01]: And hitters know that there comes the there comes the sweeper to don't weigh the hell off the plate or the sinkers got go in and almost hit me.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't need a swing on it.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that's one part of it and then the other part is can you literally just can you throw strikes and boil is below average and that's pretty nicely in that regard.

[SPEAKER_01]: So even though it's better.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's eighteen walks in thirty two and two thirds innings here.

[SPEAKER_01]: So [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I need to get one of those fun arms that that has a good outing here and there and make you think, oh, this guy could be, you know, a stud until flash stud upside at that certain times, but this is not an arm I want in the best anyways.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think this is going to be more maddening anything else and make you want to pull your hair out when he's going through his rough stretches.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm not super high.

[SPEAKER_01]: on Joe Boyle either, but let's go over to the some nationally guys here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Sorry with no one McLean here who made his debut yesterday for the New York Mats.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I even said when I was writing him up, I was like, all right, this first outing to be a tough one.

[SPEAKER_01]: Seattle's offense has been pretty good.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, added nail earn and Suarez who hasn't been doing anything.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, good line up all around this year in Seattle, but he went five and a third shot out innings.

[SPEAKER_01]: Eight strikeouts did walk for guys, but really fun arm and one of the best sweepers you'll see.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like this guy's, you know, the spin rates on his sweeper and curve ball are just insane.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was over three thousand RPM's in the minor leagues for the sweeper curveball even more curveball is like thirty two thirty three hundred RPM's this guy just has that back to that feel he has that feel for spin he can spin a ball better than most every pitcher in baseball but another guy that's been inconsistent a little bit of a higher walk rate but definitely a fun army look at the pitch mix is first outing [SPEAKER_01]: So he went sweeper first, thirty three times, thirty six point three percent, then sinker, then curve ball.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those are all of twenty percent, four seamer on ten percent, and then the, you know, mix in a sporadic cutter and change up to these six pitches in his debut, you know, very fun arm here with no one McLean Eric.

[SPEAKER_01]: So how can into him are you moving forward?

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, very [SPEAKER_03]: I think you put it really well that like there were some command issues and I think there will be, you know, for at this point in his career, I think it's wild to acknowledge that this is his first year as a full-time pitcher.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yep.

[SPEAKER_03]: that he was a two-way player and he was a two-way player in the minor leagues last year as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so that really has to be factored in when you think of his development because he was splitting his time doing everything up until this year.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so we have to assume that like the offseason coming into this season was the first time he fully trained as only a pitcher.

[SPEAKER_03]: And we saw obviously great growth from him as a pitching prospect.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I think we should expect that kind of growth to continue.

[SPEAKER_03]: The sweeper and curveball are elite.

[SPEAKER_03]: I love that their dynamic to hitters of each side of the plate.

[SPEAKER_03]: The sweeper will crush righties.

[SPEAKER_03]: The curveball will crush lefties.

[SPEAKER_03]: He'll mix them in against each other.

[SPEAKER_03]: But that's what it is.

[SPEAKER_03]: They're speaking in this pitches for those.

[SPEAKER_03]: handed batters of those handedness.

[SPEAKER_03]: The sinker is like a legit sinker.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's not a two-seamer like it has dropped like you know back in the old school days that we had sinkers.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I know we do now, but now we call them like splinkers and a two-seamer and a sinker are the same and like no, he throws a sinker.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I like that like, you know, the four-seamer [SPEAKER_03]: Again, like, I will use a lot of the same stuff that Nick Pollock talks about because he and I talk pitching every single week, but like, you know, I have learned a lot about like height adjusted vertical approach angle is is looking at like, okay, hey, we're not just saying what is the, you know, IVB, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: What is the vertical break on the foreseamer?

[SPEAKER_03]: What is the horizontal break?

[SPEAKER_03]: It's like, okay, based on the release point that I have.

[SPEAKER_03]: and the attack angle that the pitch has coming into the plate does this fastball seem to rise, right, or does it fall, it kind of like drop with gravity.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so no one McLean's fastball for the most part is a pretty average to below average fastball other than the ninety five and a half-mount hour velocity, but [SPEAKER_03]: He has really good, high-adjusted vertical approach angle, which means the fastball really performs well at the top of the strike zone because it kind of seems to rise.

[SPEAKER_03]: It defies gravity a little bit.

[SPEAKER_03]: And if you look at his game, like he didn't throw that many of them.

[SPEAKER_03]: all of them were up in the strike zone.

[SPEAKER_03]: And they weren't commanded really well, but like to me, that's the sense of, hey, this is a guy who knows what that pitch is and knows, I have the sinker, I'll throw the sinker, I'll try and get these four seamers up for strikeouts or swinging strikes at some point.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I like the pitch mix, I like the foundation, I like how he seems to utilize things and I like the fact that [SPEAKER_03]: I think we can only assume more growth as he continues to be just a picture.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's why I was so high in him entering this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: He showed the upside last year, like the Batman Singability was there last year, but I was like, yeah, this guy, when he solely focuses on pitch, and you see it so many times more so when they're a bit younger than they get drafted, he was like, you know, high school life, that was two way guys, something bad.

[SPEAKER_01]: But whenever you see a two way guy, just focus on, and usually it's going to the pitching side of things, you know, you got to wonder like, all right, now that he has, it's a have to worry about [SPEAKER_01]: You know, all that goes into hitting and just focuses on pitching.

[SPEAKER_01]: You see that the astronomical rise like McLean went from being a guy that was, you know, a fun project of sorts to, you know, for many people when he may as debut.

[SPEAKER_01]: this week, a top ten or a close to it, but you can prospect for many myself included.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think I haven't written that range in my rankings.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you've got to start it in that debut where just look at, I know it's one start.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was ninety one pitches.

[SPEAKER_01]: So obviously it's not a lot to go off of, but look at the heat maps from that one start.

[SPEAKER_01]: Nothing was really like a tight command, you know, cluster, even the sweeper, but this shows [SPEAKER_01]: The stuff this guy has, like if he continues to refine it and locate pitches better, and this guy could honestly be like, I think better easily better than anybody we talked about so far in this episode where this guy could be, I'm not gonna say a future ace, I don't like to throw that term around lightly, but this could be an impact arm where he's like, maybe one of your top two or three, [SPEAKER_01]: pictures that you're that you're rostering so I think there's a lot of upside here yet the walk rate still a little bit higher I'm not terrible it's always been like ten eleven percent something like that but [SPEAKER_01]: That can tick down and kind of get into that nine, ten percent range.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can tighten up the command a bit here.

[SPEAKER_01]: This plenty of upside.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, putting a strike out upside here with that sweeper with that curve ball.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those are two really, really good pitches and you saw that in the debut.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm a big McLean guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: And even when I post it about him on Twitter, many people want to met fans are like, yeah, he's the best guy on the staff right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I can't like, and that's hard like argue against that, you know, but yeah, very, very high on normal clean moving forward for sure.

[SPEAKER_01]: So only twenty four years old too.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you're still on the younger side.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, next guy here, like the one kind of stud that we're talking about here, Chase Burns, unfortunately, on the IL now with a, wasn't a flexor strain, I believe it was.

[SPEAKER_01]: So hopefully that doesn't come a long term thing, but phenomenal first eight starts.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, but his ear raise five, two, four.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't care.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, look at everything else from Chase Burns so far.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's absolutely phenomenal start to his career.

[SPEAKER_01]: Look at, he's a three point one four XERA, two forty four fifth, two twenty nine X-FIP.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if you look at, so I filtered it, since his debut, for pictures with at least thirty innings pitched, he is a twenty nine point one percent came on his walk rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: The only one ahead of him is Zach Wheeler at twenty nine point two percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's right ahead of Terry's school ball.

[SPEAKER_01]: who would look at like all the ERA indicators came as walk right these basically been right line with her excubal since he debuted obviously ERA higher at five point two four a little bit of you know bad bad at ball locked there three seventy seven bad bit allowed but [SPEAKER_01]: Chase Burns was my number one pitching project when he debuted him and Miss Yerowski obviously really fun arms and I think Chase Burns could really become again this is one of the guys I'll use that future ace you know term for because he has the velocity now he have just ninety and a half on that foreseamer the slider is potentially going to be one of the best sliders and baseball for years to come and he's been very hard on those two pictures but he has a decent change up as well they just doesn't really throw a ton right now but [SPEAKER_01]: I still have some kind of tinkering to do, but I think all of the ingredients are here for burns to be an ace pitcher even in Graham American ballpark.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like him and Hunter Green, you're moving forward.

[SPEAKER_01]: That could be one of the nastiest one, too, as we'll see in baseball, assuming Green is a healthy, but so what do you thoughts here on Chase Burns and do you also believe that he can be a future ace for fantasy?

[SPEAKER_03]: What if I told you that right now?

[SPEAKER_03]: more bullish on no one McLean being a better starting pitcher than Chase Burns.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: But does that say more about how high you are McLean or what do you think about Burns?

[SPEAKER_03]: I think it's a little bit a little calm A little calm B.

So I think Chase Burns could absolutely be nice.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think you can't be.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think there are some changes to the arsenal that need to be made that I don't think need to happen with Nolan McLean.

[SPEAKER_03]: Because I think Nolan McLean has a true deep pitch mix and I think he utilizes that pitch mix well.

[SPEAKER_03]: Chase Burns is essentially a two pitch pitcher.

[SPEAKER_03]: He will flash that change up and that's fine.

[SPEAKER_03]: But it's not really, it's not a pitch that he uses all that much and it's not a pitch that has been [SPEAKER_03]: It's fine for him.

[SPEAKER_03]: He can't command it really well.

[SPEAKER_03]: A twenty five percent zone rate on his change up is fifteen percentile in all of baseball.

[SPEAKER_03]: It relies a ton on swinging strikes.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that's why he only uses it like six percent of the time because it kind of relies on being like a hey you're sitting fastball or slider and here's something else and you're going to be totally fooled by it.

[SPEAKER_03]: You know, swing out of the zone.

[SPEAKER_03]: And that's fine.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's working for him right now.

[SPEAKER_03]: But to me, if I'm looking at him being a foundational ace, I would like to see that pitch maybe land in the zone a little more, him have a little more confidence in it overall, whatever it is.

[SPEAKER_03]: Forcing fastball, I love that he's forcing fastballs up in the zone, sliders low in the zone.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think the approach works really well.

[SPEAKER_03]: The forcing fastball actually gets hit harder than you might think, or give up more hard contact.

[SPEAKER_03]: I do, I mean, again, I do a pitch-a-less podcast.

[SPEAKER_03]: I use a lot of pitch-a-less stats, but I do like using their ideal contact rate stat, because it's not just barrels, it's barrels, but it includes all solid contacts, but it also includes hard hit ground balls.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I still think that's [SPEAKER_03]: useful because a hearted ground balls almost always a hit and so discrediting a heart hit ground ball because it's not a barrel right if I give up a ninety six mile an hour ground ball it go it's a hit and so if I have a pitch that keeps giving up hard contact even if it's a low launch angle [SPEAKER_03]: No, it might not lead to home runs and he didn't give up a lot of forcing fastball, but he did give up a two sixty five average.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I know people are going to say, well, the babbib on the forcing fastball super high.

[SPEAKER_03]: And it's like, yeah, but the idea of contact rate on the forcing fastball is also forty nine percent.

[SPEAKER_03]: and league average for a forcing fastball is forty three percent.

[SPEAKER_03]: So he gives up six percent.

[SPEAKER_03]: He gives up six percent more hard contact on a forcing fastball than MLB average.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so and like an eleven point nine percent swinging strike rate is better than league average, but it's not great.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's got a league average zone rate.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's got a league average strike rate.

[SPEAKER_03]: He has below-league average extension.

[SPEAKER_03]: He has a pretty flat, height-adjusted, and vertical approach angle, so it's pretty flat fastball, and that's why it gets fouled off a lot, and doesn't have tons of swinging strikes.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I think he has a tremendous slider, and he has a forcing fastball that has some components of a good forcing fastball, and some components that make it a little bit more hitable than you would think from a guy averaging ninety eight point five miles an hour on his forcing fastball.

[SPEAKER_03]: Andy has an arsenal that is not as deep as I would like to see.

[SPEAKER_03]: He's also twenty-two years old.

[SPEAKER_03]: He could refine that change up or add another pitch in the off season.

[SPEAKER_03]: He could tweak the shape of the forcing fast also that it misses a little more bats.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like there are plenty of avenues forward for Chase Burns to be a dominant pitcher in baseball and in fantasy baseball.

[SPEAKER_03]: But I just think we collectively [SPEAKER_03]: Road off the five, twenty four ERA, a little too quickly by looking at the X-FIP and not looking at the fact that yes, there are some components in the pitch mix that are leading to that five, twenty four ERA, despite the fact that we obviously see how talented he is and we see how much swing and missibility he has.

[SPEAKER_03]: There is refinement that needs to happen.

[SPEAKER_03]: But again, he's twenty two years old.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's not a crazy reality to be facing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, absolutely.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that is the one thing that I am concerned about with Chase Burns and with really any eggs is what any picture that is primarily two pitches where especially if those pitches are elite, you can make it work.

[SPEAKER_01]: You saw strider make it work, you know, for, you know, a year or two, you've seen, you know, glass on make work at times, Dylan C, etc.

[SPEAKER_01]: But [SPEAKER_01]: You can't, I don't think you can make it work for like a long period of time, especially again, if one of those, those pictures goes and then you give an outing, your left would just one pitch, so can burns be that guy like let's say one day, he's doesn't have a good foreseamer.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, well, you're screwed.

[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't have another variation of his fastball.

[SPEAKER_01]: He isn't though a two-seamer.

[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't throw a cutter or anything like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, if the slaughter goes, can the change up, kind of supplement that and step up and be that, so again, it's offering for him.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, I do want to see him.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he threw it more in the mind, at least.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's gone more for seem slaughter heavy in the major so far than he was in the minors.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, I want to see that maybe throw that change, but you know, get that up to like ten to fifteen percent, then that'll be good.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a good change up.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, it's a decent change up.

[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't really go to a kind of like similarly with a striter's curveball.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a good curveball.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's only those five and a half percent on the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, if you could really, you know, get that change up usage rate up a bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that would be even though it's the same velocity band as the slider.

[SPEAKER_01]: So there's only give a hitters at that different look to it.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I definitely think that the ingredients are there for burn to be an elite arm in this game.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I agree that there's also needs to be some tinkering done.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully they can work on that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Who knows if we see them again?

[SPEAKER_01]: This season kind of hard to say, but [SPEAKER_01]: I love Burns a lot, but yeah, him and Mr.

Oscar both really fun arms that still need, you know, they're not finished products by any means.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, but yeah, definitely upsides a leap.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that speaks volumes to, you know, what you think about normal cleaning too, which I guess.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm super high in the clean too, so I'm right there with you.

[SPEAKER_01]: I love a clean and I think, you know, he's the one that could really be, you know, one of those like fun, pitchy projects that becomes more than anyone ever thought he could be.

[SPEAKER_01]: given another year to age twenty five twenty six yeah McQueen could be one the really watch out for absolutely.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right next guy up here another Cincinnati Reds arm in Andrew Abbott very different from Chase Perne's first obviously lefty and but outside of that not [SPEAKER_01]: hard throwing lefty, you know, fast full velocity only but ninety two and a half miles an hour.

[SPEAKER_01]: I keep waiting for him to fall off this year, but he hasn't, you know, it's two to eight ERA in twenty two starts one zero eight whip.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was coming that guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I thought he's a settle in like where he was last two years, you know, up or three is ERA one three whip.

[SPEAKER_01]: but he's, you know, got that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those ratios down is kept them down all season, but the carate's pretty middle of the road right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: And one of the area indicators are like a run or so higher.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's one where it's a really interesting profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of good, a lot of bad.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of how do you balance that all out?

[SPEAKER_01]: And are you an Abbott guy here moving forward?

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not an Abbott guy.

[SPEAKER_03]: And primarily just I can't, I cannot think you're him out.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a hard one for sure.

[SPEAKER_03]: Listen, you know, there were some changes to the curveball this year.

[SPEAKER_03]: He added in a cutter this year.

[SPEAKER_03]: He did some things that I think are changing a little bit of [SPEAKER_03]: what we've seen from him in the past.

[SPEAKER_03]: I see a guy with a fairly average swinging strike rate, fairly average strikeout rate, who has made some improvements for sure, but isn't a guy that I watch and think should be dominating like this.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I think that Andrew Abbott could very well be just a solid picture for a long time.

[SPEAKER_03]: But I think when you ask this question of, like, buy or sell, I'm selling this level of performance.

[SPEAKER_03]: Um, but is Andrew Abbott a guy who finishes the year with a three, four ERA and, you know, solid, I mean, you know, once and a whip under one two with a league average strikeout rate, like sure.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that could be who he is, but I think if you are, if you, if there's somebody that who believes that this is him, then yeah, so.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm definitely a cell as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I feel like actually long-term, I think you could see him, Cameron, and...

[SPEAKER_01]: and Lopez in similar ranges.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think those are guys that are going to be like, you know, top fifty-ish guys, you know, maybe a ADP, like, you know, one fifty to one eighty something like that, but I don't see any of these three as guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't see that two two a ERA, and I'm like, oh, Abbott's a guy that I can, you know, all of a sudden build my rotation will be one of those like top three or four guys from my pitching staff.

[SPEAKER_01]: I just don't think he's there, you know, and that K-rate is a big part of it, but [SPEAKER_01]: I just don't see these ratio sustaining.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he said, you know, I'm not saying it's entirely fluky.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not saying he's not good or anything like that, but I just I don't see him maintaining this level.

[SPEAKER_01]: Again, I thought he'd fall off by now.

[SPEAKER_01]: He hasn't.

[SPEAKER_01]: I can credit for that, but can he be, you know, a sub three year I go and forward?

[SPEAKER_01]: No, I definitely do not think that.

[SPEAKER_01]: picture is in there.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, again, I think he's decent.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's definitely fantasy relevant, decent arm, mid rotation type of guy, but yeah, not one of the upper part of your rotation guys for sure.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, a few more names here going down to a guy that's picking up.

[SPEAKER_01]: You said it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I've had it hard to figure out.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this next guy's been maybe the hardest one for me to figure out over the years.

[SPEAKER_01]: I got that I've mostly been in on, but kind of got out on less a couple of years.

[SPEAKER_01]: And now, of course, when I get out on him, he starts having the best year of his career.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's Ebro Cabrera of the Miami Marlins still only twenty seven years old in twenty one starts us here three three four ERA one one six whip twenty five and a half percent key rate was pretty much in line with the boys been the last few years, but thank the biggest [SPEAKER_01]: difference for him, eight point one percent walk rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is a guy that was, you know, eleven and a half percent or a higher.

[SPEAKER_01]: Some years he was fifteen percent walk rates, you know, over the last few years.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that was kind of he'd be one of those guys where, all right, great start, two duds, two good stars, three duds.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was so maddening.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's why I was, all right, I'm done with this guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: And now all of a sudden he's becoming what I thought he could be.

[SPEAKER_01]: But are we believing in it?

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm still hesitant, even though the walk rates down, that's great.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm still kind of hesitant to be like, all right, I'm investing in Cabrera again.

[SPEAKER_01]: Do you share those hesitancies here with him, Eric?

[SPEAKER_01]: No, I'm in.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're in.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm in.

[SPEAKER_03]: Two things have gotten me in.

[SPEAKER_03]: I was in.

[SPEAKER_03]: early on when I saw he switched his primary fastball from a foreseamer to a sinker because he commands the sinker well and that offset a lot of the command issues that you were talking about he was actually able to get ahead with the fastball because he was using the sinker rather than the foreseamer over the last like month and a half you've also kind of seen him working backwards that he's actually reduced his overall fastball usage the sinker and the foreseamer and is using a lot of change up curve ball slider [SPEAKER_03]: And his change up is stupid.

[SPEAKER_03]: Good.

[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, you kind of expected that from like Marlon's guys for a while, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: It was like the Alcantara Edward Cabrera Pablo Lopez like they had really good changeups.

[SPEAKER_03]: They'd lead with those.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I now see a guy with three pretty solid breaking balls that he's or secondary pitches that he's throwing regularly.

[SPEAKER_03]: And he now has a fastball.

[SPEAKER_03]: He can throw for strikes.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so yeah, I like it.

[SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned that the breaking ball is curve ball is a forty four percent with rate slider forty three percent and that they're all missing bats a super high clip both have a batting average against under two hundred and both have a slug a lot of two fifty or less.

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll but you know under two twenty five for both offerings with that good change up.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, the fact that he [SPEAKER_01]: is kind of like evolved into this kind of new look Cabrera with the sinker which he uses about twenty one percent of the time last year was nine percent so over double that for similar was twenty seven percent usage rate last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's down to about twelve and a half percent so kind of cut that in half.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm, I mean, I'm, I still have some hesitancy, but I'm definitely more than when I was last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's one hundred percent certain.

[SPEAKER_01]: And in fact, I've always liked Cabrera.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm kind of like, I always kind of like monitor him even when I was out.

[SPEAKER_01]: I've always like, all right, I'm keeping an eye on him at least.

[SPEAKER_01]: So as I was like, I still think that guy could be in there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Again, you're starting to see that so far this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, definitely very excited to see this turn around here from Admiral Cabrera.

[SPEAKER_01]: See if he can keep it up moving forward.

[SPEAKER_01]: a couple more names here two more names before we get out her some wall drip [SPEAKER_01]: keep it right there in the nationally east.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was a guy that very up and down, minorly career.

[SPEAKER_01]: But his first three outings with the braves this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he had two outings last year, which didn't go well at all.

[SPEAKER_01]: But three outings this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's been absolutely phenomenal.

[SPEAKER_01]: One zero two ERA in seventeen and two third gennings, zero point seven nine whip and seventeen strikeouts.

[SPEAKER_01]: with a for a twenty five point eight percent k rate in a seven point six percent walk rate mean that splitter is stupid just ridiculously good splitter that's because she's led with this year about twenty percent of the time there's a zero for eight batting average again zero for eight slug allowed in a fifty four point three percent with rate but I think the rest of his you know he's always had that really good splitter I mean we saw him [SPEAKER_01]: down in spring training once that was two years ago for first pitch florida and he didn't look great at all because it was like the rest of the arsenal wasn't consistent but he goes he's got the two different variations of the foreseamer I mean the vast ball also has a cutter [SPEAKER_01]: It's a really three versions of the fastball, you know, all in that ninety three, ninety six range.

[SPEAKER_01]: Also as a pretty solid slider as well, mixes in the curve ball too.

[SPEAKER_01]: So six pitch guy use them all nine percent of the time and more so far with with the braves.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I like what I don't love all of it by like wall drip.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he definitely be, you know, maybe at a top fifty caliber arm.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's what is a carry him, but I mean, the rest of the arsenal has evolved when I saw him a couple years ago.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm definitely in, I'm not like rushing out, like, to be a stud, but I'm definitely in on on wallpaper.

[SPEAKER_01]: So what are your thoughts here?

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I am definitely in and [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, cautiously optimistic.

[SPEAKER_03]: We could say, I mean, I wrote about Waldrup in my starting picture news piece that I do every week over at MSC sports.

[SPEAKER_03]: You could check that out, but there are a couple of Braves writers, including Lindsey Crosby, who I follow on Twitter, who pointed out that there were some mechanical changes for Waldrup or like his knee drive when he was [SPEAKER_03]: where he was pitching, he would drive his knee up kind of by his chin, just like incredibly high.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so it impacted his landing, that his landing foot, like the consistency of his landing spot, of his landing foot was just at a whack.

[SPEAKER_03]: And obviously, impact that his command, because he didn't have any sort of sense of rhythm and consistency in his mechanics, he has since modified that, that I think has improved his command.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then the addition of the sinker instead of the forcing fastball, [SPEAKER_03]: has not only improved his command, but the forcing fastball was just a pretty mediocre, like a dead zone forcing fastball that got hit relatively hard.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so moving away from that, I think it was also really good for him.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's a little Kevin Gosmanish for me where I'm like, okay, the splitter is great and the rest of the stuff is like, can it just be good enough?

[SPEAKER_03]: Right, like every year we're like, oh Kevin Gosman is a high whip and it's like, yeah, because it's forcing fast bug.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's really hard and he just hopes he gets ahead with it so that he can throw his splitter for strikes.

[SPEAKER_03]: You know, and so I think you're kind of in that boat with Waldrup, but to have gotten here from where he was earlier this year in a year ago is wild and I'm happy to pick him up in places where I don't need him to be a stud right away, but I can say, all right, let's see how this [SPEAKER_03]: Let's see how this goes because he was good in college.

[SPEAKER_03]: He was a first round pick.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like if this command is really improved and if the sinker and center of the forcing fastball is a good addition to the arsenal and I believe it is, then he's not in the chase burns, no one McLean range, but he's a young pitcher who could be improving and growing and becoming a usable fantasy.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think growing is like the perfect word to use with him is like I mentioned like this is a this is a different arm than than what we saw in spring training couple years ago like he's completely I get evolved into what he is now and it's a better version Easy to say that with how he's been pitching right now, but you know, he was a guy that I was like slowies kind of fading I was never out on wall drip, but I was like all right is this ever gonna work is you ever gonna be a guy that is more than just [SPEAKER_01]: a really sexy splitter and then kind of middle the road to mediocre everything else.

[SPEAKER_01]: But he's showing the guy I got a couple decent breaking balls here and that he throws combined nearly thirty percent of the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: He can dispatch with those.

[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, you get the fore seam and the sinker and the cutter as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like this is becoming a much more complete pitcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't think he's on, you know, the Burns level either, but [SPEAKER_01]: I like I'm back in on on Walter by now, and he should get like the one silver lining with this LN that season kind of going a rye with all their injuries like he's I get plenty of Ron like assume he pitches well he should be an adaptation rest of the year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So this should get plenty another what six seven eight starts, whatever it is.

[SPEAKER_01]: through the end of the season to see what they have with water before entering twenty twenty six.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think you see him keep pitching well.

[SPEAKER_01]: This could be a guy that has some auto helium entering twenty six.

[SPEAKER_01]: Gotta could have a, you know, pretty.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: I got an ADP that might be higher than we think it is like you'll get into draft texture.

[SPEAKER_01]: You'd be like, oh, man, the ADP is that high for for a while.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_03]: You might find a thing of you might pitch himself into a fade for that reason.

[SPEAKER_03]: But we'll see.

[SPEAKER_01]: I could see that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I could definitely see that.

[SPEAKER_01]: One more name here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Another rookie this season pitching very well right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's Kate Horton of the Chicago Cubs in eighty five innings three point zero seven ERA one point one eight whip seven point eight percent walker eight, but only a nineteen point three percent strike got rate which is kind of odd for the guy that was always a high key rate guy in the minor leagues.

[SPEAKER_01]: But hey, it's kind of hard to bitch too much when he has you know the ERA right around three.

[SPEAKER_01]: What are you making of Horton now because you look at the arsenal overall, which has expanded a bit since he was [SPEAKER_01]: You know, in the kind of lower part of the minor leagues when he got after you got drafted, and he's now, I don't know if you'll come before a five pitch guy, really four pitches, four scene sweeper, change up curve ball, occasional sink or slider.

[SPEAKER_01]: The sweeper has always been really good for him.

[SPEAKER_01]: Change it misses bats too.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like that's why I think you get that sub-twenty percent key rate, and I'm like, all right, that should tick up.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because he can miss bats at the sweeper.

[SPEAKER_01]: He can miss bats with the change up as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: They both have a wiff rate of bomb forty percent change up.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's always been like the sweepersman is kind of like the fun sexy offering for him, but that change up has been even better.

[SPEAKER_01]: So far in the major league is terms of betting average against sluggled out EV allowed wiff rate all that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm buying right now because I think he's been good, but I think there's another level with that carrot that he's yet to unlock at the major level.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm definitely, I don't think he's at the top twenty arm, but I think he could be a good like SP three or something like that fantasy purposes, especially if that carrot takes up, which I believe it will.

[SPEAKER_01]: Do you share those same that same optimism here with Kate Horton, Eric?

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I think it's a similar situation, like to what I said with the Chase Burns thing where you're like, oh, that fastball is just more hitable than we thought.

[SPEAKER_03]: And it's kind of because it's really kind of a cutter.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like if you look at the movement profile, it's a cut fastball.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's a cut fore seam, I guess you want to call it.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so it doesn't miss a lot of bats.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so that again, makes it hard to get strikeouts when you're not really getting into that many two strike counts because your forcing fastball is pretty hitable.

[SPEAKER_03]: But the same time, the slider is as good as people said it was and I thought the change up is better than I had read that it was like it looks better at the big league level.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so yeah, maybe he's not an ace, but I think he's, and I'm maybe, and I mean, that also in just like real baseball, maybe he's not a SP one or SP two on, you know, the cups in his career.

[SPEAKER_03]: But I everything I see says that he's a very solid starting pitcher and is a young guy who should continue to get better.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I maybe thought that he had more upside when he was like an early prospect coming out of the draft, whatever.

[SPEAKER_03]: And maybe that's not the case anymore, but I think everything he showed you this year is a solid pitcher who has a pretty advanced feel at a young age.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I'm bullish on him going forward.

[SPEAKER_03]: As just one of those like solid guys in the middle rounds, you take to round out your arsenal, who maybe has it click and has a good season.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: No, that's definitely fair.

[SPEAKER_01]: I like the profile, the one thing I'm still kind of worried about, like, can this guy hold up long-term?

[SPEAKER_01]: He durability has not been great for him so far.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not going to say his injury prone this way too early for that, but he's a guy that hasn't pitched a lot of endings.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was kind of one of those late-booming pitchers.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was a guy that really popped off the end of this collegiate career, which made him a top ten overall pick few years ago.

[SPEAKER_01]: and this hasn't very doesn't have a lot of innings under spell.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's like the one kind of like slight red flag I have with him though.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's a major issue right now, but I do like the profile and again, I think there's more K rate upside here to be locked with Horton.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm definitely in moving forward.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right.

[SPEAKER_01]: That was the last name on our list.

[SPEAKER_01]: Eric, thanks so much.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was great to catch up with you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Great to talk pitching with you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Would he get going on over at NBC Sports or the world?

[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, thanks for having me.

[SPEAKER_03]: I know we went a little longer, but, you know, it's a good conversation.

[SPEAKER_03]: On Mondays, every Monday at one PM, me and James Siano do a live Q&A, which I will always tweet out, but it's on the Roto World YouTube page.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I will tweet that out again at Sam's ski and why see we're going to be doing it throughout the whole baseball season.

[SPEAKER_03]: So, you know, even when people switch over to football, we'll be there.

[SPEAKER_03]: So, so come and check it out, ask us any line-up questions, anything like that.

[SPEAKER_03]: On every Wednesday, I put out a starting pitcher news column where I look at pitch mix changes or debuts or arsenal changes in any way usage.

[SPEAKER_03]: Recently covered like how the red socks are changing.

[SPEAKER_03]: Let's see.

[SPEAKER_03]: Ryan Berger going to the Royals and things like that.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then every Sunday, I do a way of Roy our call over at NBC Sports World, where I cover.

[SPEAKER_03]: I rank all my the streamers for the week and then you know covers many guys as possible that I think could be worth adding in your leagues and I try to give you like what categories they could help you in which I think is obviously really important this time of year and you can find all of that by following me on Twitter at Samsky NYC.

[SPEAKER_01]: Awesome, definitely go out and give Eric a follow.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you haven't already in great content, great name, what else do you need from your from your fantasy Twitter baseball follows, but that will represent for this episode.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks everyone for tuning in.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'll be back with you again soon, but until then, everyone take care.