[SPEAKER_03]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.

[SPEAKER_03]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.

[SPEAKER_03]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.

[SPEAKER_01]: What's up everyone?

[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome into another episode of the toolshed podcast brought to you by Rotobollar.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is episode 421.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining me.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host Eric Cross.

[SPEAKER_01]: Take on me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB.

[SPEAKER_01]: Finishing up my 2025 rookie review series, I already did infield in the outfield.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's head to the mount here with a great guest.

[SPEAKER_01]: Just saw him out at first, which Arizona.

[SPEAKER_01]: And usually when I introduce a guest like this, I say something like, you know, the one, the only, but you might not be the only anymore.

[SPEAKER_01]: You heard some of the, or saw some of the pictures or heard a podcast or two from, [SPEAKER_01]: from Freshers Arizona, you'll know what I'm talking about.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm 99% sure I have the real Paul Spore at Spore on Twitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, writer, podcast, or fan graphs, sleep around the bus podcast, Paul has it going.

[SPEAKER_00]: But Eric is going well, man.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks so much for having me on.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was awesome seeing you this weekend.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, the doppelganger thing was incredible.

[SPEAKER_00]: A guy Andy Bell who looks exactly like me, similar age.

[SPEAKER_00]: from Detroit, from Dearborn specifically, I'm from Allen Park, people who know the greater Detroit area going to know how close those two are.

[SPEAKER_00]: I was born in Dearborn Hospital.

[SPEAKER_00]: So like, it's just insane.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, my father has passed, so he'll have to answer for this in heaven when I get there.

[SPEAKER_00]: But for now, he's skating on some BS because I need to know what's going on.

[SPEAKER_00]: But now Andy was great.

[SPEAKER_00]: The thing was to a diddle of the key was cost playing me because it was all decked out into Detroit car, but no, he's just a tiger's fan.

[SPEAKER_00]: Good guy, too.

[SPEAKER_00]: I really enjoyed that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, and like I said, had him on our family feud team, too.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it was blessed.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, yeah, that was fun.

[SPEAKER_01]: The family feud thing was an absolute blast.

[SPEAKER_01]: I wish I got to cut see more of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: But, uh, [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I saw doppelganger before you, on the, on the, on the, on the, yeah, so it was at the, the welcome reception and we, in line for food and he was like, to my right and I was, but there's going to be, oh, hey Paul, how's it going?

[SPEAKER_01]: Totally.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'd like, I'd start stop and look for take on my wait a minute.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is not Paul Spore.

[SPEAKER_00]: like seven people told me about him before I'd even checked in.

[SPEAKER_00]: Have you seen your doppelganger?

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm like, I'm not.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then when I did, I'm like, okay, the hype was real.

[SPEAKER_00]: And again, he was a full sport about it.

[SPEAKER_00]: He was awesome and Andy Bell, great guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm glad he came.

[SPEAKER_00]: I hope he comes next year because we had a lot of fun with it.

[SPEAKER_00]: We did some bits and everything.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, it was great.

[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of first timers out there.

[SPEAKER_01]: The show was phenomenal.

[SPEAKER_01]: New record over 200 was like 205 or so first set sell out.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, it was an honor to see and I know it can be hard.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you take a few days off.

[SPEAKER_01]: The money aspect of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Travel aspect, but if you can swing it, I, you know, I should have Paul recommended to highly recommended.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we can't recommend that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we've been going for a long time, spore longer than me.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a phenomenal event, top, talk baseball, watch baseball, and just hang out with some good people and try to, base, watch cues, especially rents and ray who just kind of spearhead this every year and just put on a phenomenal event year after year.

[SPEAKER_00]: So the balancing act, I mean, put it all together.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, it's expanded so much when I went, [SPEAKER_00]: And I was like basically there is kind of like Jason Colette's son.

[SPEAKER_00]: I was the youngest person there by like a decade.

[SPEAKER_00]: Easy.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then he was like next youngest son.

[SPEAKER_00]: I actually don't think Jason's a decade old.

[SPEAKER_00]: But like we were like the youngest and then it was a 10 year jump.

[SPEAKER_00]: and then we've seen it evolve so much first off in expansion in volume, then skew younger, now bringing in more diverse voices, more women each year, and obviously we're more still like probably low double digits at this point.

[SPEAKER_00]: But folks, we used to be like, Mordekai Brown could count them every year for quite some time.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, and if you know, if you don't know that, Mordekai three finger Brown.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so that wasn't great.

[SPEAKER_00]: So now again, we're [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if I think Gray and Brent would take this as anything negative, but I take some ownership over it in that I've been going for 16 years, I love it, I'm always trying to grow it, I've been just and I've been telling people on the pod for years.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you can do one event, you know, it is a big expenditure, I understand traveling is not easy, especially today, you know, you and I just talked about delays, you know, getting back before we started the pod.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I understand all of that, but if you are someone prone to travel, [SPEAKER_01]: and you want to find a cool trip first pictures on you just you can't go wrong it's an amazing weekend every time 16 years from a streak only broken by COVID too I know that darn COVID yeah I'm up to I think I'm running about halfway from you I think this is my eighth year going on yeah you've been coming for it for a good bit now yeah it's uh yeah so fun this week was this absolutely perfect weather it's like full of an 80s the entire time out there it was [SPEAKER_01]: phenomenal and I've got to see some good some good baseball and here's some good panels so highly recommended but yes we are talking some rookie pictures today a lot of fun ones you know this was a really exciting year for and our rookie pictures and in my previous two installments of this series I had not been going over guys that were still prospect eligible like I didn't go for psio but I'm going to make one exception here for the first guy on the list and that's tracetab it's just because [SPEAKER_01]: If he was like, yeah, he's still rookie eligible next year, but given all his, you know, postseason innings, he kind of feels a little like an exception to the rule for this episode here, and what a phenomenal year for Trace, you savage.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how I could find the stat.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure [SPEAKER_01]: Sarah Langs or someone that's you know super smart and that type of stuff can find it But the Pitching in low A and the world series in the same year is just probably some of those Been early ever happen, but that's what happened with you savage low A high A double A triple A few few starts in the majors, you know the divisional series Championship series and the world series with a couple really phenomenal outings along with the way who in that 12 strikeout game against [SPEAKER_01]: the Dodgers in the world series.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, 80p is already a lot of these guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: 80p is already getting pretty high.

[SPEAKER_01]: The height is high in these guys long term.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, we'll start off with like the the goddess kind of the busiest name right now with your savage.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, are you buying the hype right now, Paul on your set?

[SPEAKER_00]: No, probably not at the at the price point.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you talk about, oh, we got some early drafts right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: We have 12 draft champions.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's 50 round draft and hold.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's the real sake I was getting in and doing those drafts.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's kind of a good way to kind of acclimate yourself with the player pool right away.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to kind of be a year around player, I usually hold off until November.

[SPEAKER_00]: I will probably sign up my first one of the year this week.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you savage around pick 150 there at 147 with a high of 110.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's a little bit too much for me.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we saw a great sample from him, but how many times have we seen a guy be electric for a short sample, and then get figured out a bit and have to make an adjustment.

[SPEAKER_00]: An adjustment that can last even upwards of a year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm not suggesting that that will take your savage that long, but I just don't think is a finished product enough to take at that price point.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've been prone to some shiny new toys at times.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think in my older age, maybe I've skewed away a little bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll still go on to some guys for sure and pay the freight all the way up the board.

[SPEAKER_00]: But with your savage, I just can't.

[SPEAKER_00]: With pictures, it's a lot harder.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think I find myself doing it more with hitters than I believe in.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, some of the netcurs are just one rookie of the year tonight.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're recording this on Monday.

[SPEAKER_00]: already in the second round.

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe first round depending on certain leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's a little bit different to me, even though it's much more expensive than your savage.

[SPEAKER_00]: I can't do it at an inside pick 150.

[SPEAKER_00]: My boy Gavin Williams, who's a young guy, I also figured some things out, had some ups and downs of his own, goes right there too.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm taking Williams every time over your savage right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's pretty bring up Williams because I feel like there's some similarities with these two, not terms like the arsenal, but like the guys that can miss a lot of bats, but also, you know, can the command control can kind of get a little wonky at times and that's like, well, I saw chairs average twice in AA and that's kind of what I was thinking about them as like, all right, this guy can miss some bats, the stuff is really good, but [SPEAKER_01]: You know sometimes he just gets you know in his own head and starts to turn nibble too much and all of a sudden He's got you know four walks and in five innings or something like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, you save it out of all like I like your savage But out of all I like this all like you know like what it was a you know call it the height of the height of the height of 7 Yeah, the height of 7 which is perfect because it perfectly describes like you know that range of drafts next year But yeah, out of all that this cluster of arms he's young rookie arms or second year arms [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think a little more hesitant to go in on on a savage right now, but yeah, that's just good or careful.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's what is nasty that I love that.

[SPEAKER_00]: It really is and it's easy to kind of get excited about what you did on the biggest, most important stage.

[SPEAKER_00]: The resolve he showed, you know, it's hard to quantify that, but you see a guy on the biggest stage.

[SPEAKER_00]: Do that and I understand getting excited, but he's going to have ups and downs every picture does.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think he's going to take some lumps next year and just don't think he's going to return value on pick 150.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's that's definitely fair, but long term I think this guy could be like a top.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, like a top 30 or so, but not an ace.

[SPEAKER_00]: Definitely agree with me.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like an SP2 SP3 range, long term.

[SPEAKER_01]: Next guy, keep it right in the American League East, go to the Yanks with cams lit letter.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like this guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was like a decent prospect, not like a top prospect, but he just really popped off and had a phenomenal start against my red socks and game three of the wildcard round.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was funny because I was talking with a couple of, I have a couple of Yankees fan friends [SPEAKER_01]: I was like, man, as a Red Sox fan, I hated what he was doing, but as a baseball fan, I was just really appreciating what this rookie was doing in the postseason.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think it was for each shot out, which 12K, if I remember correctly, it was either zero or one walk.

[SPEAKER_01]: I forget, but not a lot of walks in that game.

[SPEAKER_01]: If I called for a call correctly, [SPEAKER_01]: But overall this year, you know, he had more starts in the major leagues than you savaged it at 14 starts year right just under three at 296 over a caperining 271 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 [SPEAKER_01]: huge whiff rates on any individual offering.

[SPEAKER_01]: So how are you kind of treating Schlittler this year moving forward?

[SPEAKER_01]: Are you buying the pop-off we saw from him this past year?

[SPEAKER_00]: I am.

[SPEAKER_00]: I do like Cam Schlittler quite a bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: I like the talent.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I like that way.

[SPEAKER_00]: We got 73 innings.

[SPEAKER_00]: That is still a small sample.

[SPEAKER_00]: But it is again, you know, compared to the savage.

[SPEAKER_00]: Even if you count the playoffs, what that was 30 innings and 15 at the major league level.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, you're talking 45 if you add both.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you're still looking at quite a bit more with the 73 for Schlittler, both small samples.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think maybe, you know, similar sort of vibe of like, okay, do you really want to pay full freight because he's up at 137 on this AVP range right now, Schlittler is, and that's still pretty expensive.

[SPEAKER_00]: Some probably still not going to end up with a lot of him, but between the two, I've got a lot more confidence in what he can do because I think he's got a better command profile.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now he still walk 10% at the major league level, but that's still better than your savage and his small sample.

[SPEAKER_00]: We saw you say average putting up easy double digit rates coming up, whereas Schlittler was more of a guy who early on had some struggles, but had, you know, at least in part of this year, gotten that down a bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: His double and triple a work, eight and nine percent respectively before it bounced back up a little bit in the major league.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think he's got the back missing ability with the better command profile.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that makes me like Schlittler more, still a little bit nervous at 137, but if I was going to take a younger guy there, [SPEAKER_00]: In that range and say, Gavin Williams was gone, I could go for a footwear as I would still be passing a savage.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think for for twenty twenty six alone, I do lean slid or over your savage long term.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think I could maybe sway the other way a little bit, but they're both pretty close in my ranking both for next year and long term in the Diocy format, so be a Schuiller.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he looked at, he's just really, he gives me like, I mean, he throws a little harder than then Lancelon did, but Emerald Lancelon was just like, everything was pretty like, he was a fastball cutter, signature.

[SPEAKER_01]: not a lot of like, you know, breaking or off speed.

[SPEAKER_01]: That kind of gives me kind of the vibe I get from a camsuit or and yeah, he just seems like dominant and yeah, you know, I brought this up with the savage and again, I can't quantify it.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't go too hard on it.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like my drafting philosophy, but his demeanor, I find super impressive and actually took away it was actually kind of a boring interview that he had, I don't know, be central if I don't want to be too rude, but like, [SPEAKER_00]: That actually played into it though, too.

[SPEAKER_00]: The fact that he's just kind of always even killed.

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe I wish he had a little bit more juice for a morning interview show, but that I'm not really worried about player interviews.

[SPEAKER_00]: But then kind of seeing how he just kind of always keeps his cool, even when his starts are going bad.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm not saying that if a guy punches their glove or swears, then I'm automatically out on them.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm that kind of person.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, who would I be the throw stones?

[SPEAKER_00]: But I do appreciate a young guy who can kind of keep their composure when they come up and they hit some bumps because you're inevitably going to, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: What's one of the biggest cliches about baseball?

[SPEAKER_00]: It's a game of failure.

[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, you do tend to see the guys that do overreact all the time.

[SPEAKER_00]: They a lot of times burn out.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's harder for the hotheads to put up the decade-long career.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you get your exceptions.

[SPEAKER_00]: Tell me, fam, it's still knocking around.

[SPEAKER_00]: And there's some other guys too.

[SPEAKER_00]: But like, generally, if you're that high in that low for everything in baseball, it's going to make it crazy.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I thought Schlittler was somebody that, again, you savage as well, that kind of had their composure.

[SPEAKER_00]: At least in the little glimpses that I was able to get from them.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know them personally.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I feel like it's especially important with Schlittler's pitching in New York or half a star's being in New York for the exact opposite.

[SPEAKER_01]: Then you're the name on that jersey means a lot.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not, you know, not the slight like Pittsburgh or Miami, but it's like, No, it's harder to pitch there.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like we can't pretend it isn't now.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've always pushed back on the idea that like, [SPEAKER_00]: everyone who doesn't succeed there didn't succeed because of the city what you're not saying by the way so that's on argument against you but I've always pushed back on that narrative like guys can just be bad there because they didn't pitch well not because of the media and the fans got to them but you'd be deluding yourselves to pretend that [SPEAKER_00]: pitching in New York, either New York really but especially the Yankees isn't much different and frankly more difficult than literally anywhere else, just the media coverage.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you can't pick your nose there without getting a little story about it somewhere, whereas in Pittsburgh, you could probably pitch a no-no, and you know, you might get a blurb.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now I'm kiddin' Pittsburgh, I'm kiddin', I'm kiddin', they're actually a good sports town, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: They got a terrible owner.

[SPEAKER_00]: But if they had a good owner, I guarantee they would show the hell out at PNC because that's a great stadium.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, I'm not, I'm taking all shots at them, but it's not.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's more because they're the worst team, or one of the worst teams in the league.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you're not in a point, I just don't want Pittsburgh to come after me.

[SPEAKER_00]: Mid West type people, you know.

[SPEAKER_00]: I guess that's not really Midwest, but they got a Midwest vibe.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm from the Midwest, so I know how scary we can be.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I feel like Pittsburgh is kind of like almost like the gateway to the Midwest.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're kind of like running that cut off, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: As soon as I said that, I'm like, yeah, it's kind of far east, but like they got hell of Midwest vibes.

[SPEAKER_00]: Which I know hell is like a total west coast word to then say mid coast vibes with, but anyway.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it was funny, you know, when those whole, you know, Paulskiing straight rumors are always being tweeted about.

[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, I had some people like when I made a comment, people were applying to me saying that like basically they would be okay giving up schemes if it meant Bob Nutting went with them.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like the glasses.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's so bad.

[SPEAKER_01]: And now you're willing to get rid of your generational picture if it's just to get rid of that out because of how much it would help just to get a new, I mean, [SPEAKER_00]: It wouldn't help for sure.

[SPEAKER_00]: I guess there's feasibly a way to get a worse owner, but I doubt it.

[SPEAKER_00]: It does seem that, I mean, I'd have to maybe sit down and judge this, so I don't want to commit too much to this.

[SPEAKER_00]: But do you feel like the newer owners have at least, on some cases that I can think of have come in and said, they're more open to spending and trying to actually win as opposed to buying the team to be an ATM for them.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, you know, everyone criticized the Orals for not spending.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was actually a lie.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not the ownership, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, they said he could spend it and he's like, no, I want to do it like the raise for some reason.

[SPEAKER_00]: Hey, good job.

[SPEAKER_00]: That worked.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, absolutely.

[SPEAKER_01]: Both of them were going to fell off hard this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: They collapsed, dude.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's completely his fault.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I advocated that they signed Burns and that didn't work either, so it's not like I had the answers, but the fact that they sat on their hands, I thought, was so bizarre.

[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, we got to move on to our next guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: No, okay.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm in right.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm gonna send you a note no a camera who is this guy is kind of an interesting profile I mean he had a year rate just a pair under three right at 2.99 24 starts you know solid one one zero whip You know K rate it was not nearly as high as what we had seen in the minor leagues though the wiff rate You know was pretty solid still think there's some more as actually was above average wiff rate but below average straight gut rates [SPEAKER_01]: So I think there's a chance you see that strike a right move up, but yeah a lot of his earray indicators were like in that you know Ford a 4.2 4.3 range, so kind of an interesting profile here from Noah Cameron So how you kind of evaluating him moving forward?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'm actually really excited about Cameron too and again, you know, you talk about this hype 7 and you know, I need to expand it because there are so many interesting young pictures for next year.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not just the rookies, but this rookie class.

[SPEAKER_00]: While it didn't have a lot of bangers seasons, like nobody thought that Kurt's was going to lose rookie the year.

[SPEAKER_00]: He was so far out above the pack.

[SPEAKER_00]: The rest of the pack was really good.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's just that he was amazing.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so he kind of made it look like a week AL class, but Noah Cameron was right there.

[SPEAKER_00]: He had a wonderful season.

[SPEAKER_00]: I know he finished outside the top three.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was Wilson and Roman Anthony who joined Kurt's there.

[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, I'm sure they both knew like, we don't have a chance at this, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: This is Kurt's all the way.

[SPEAKER_00]: He wanted unanimously, but Cameron is much cheaper than the first two guys we talked about.

[SPEAKER_00]: Almost 100 picks cheaper.

[SPEAKER_00]: Then Schlittler at 234 and that is there's a reason for that by the way He's not as talented as them, but he is remarkably talented and he's in a place that can play to his strengths, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: You mentioned that the strikeout rate isn't quite there yet for Cameron.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, that's good at least he plays in a spot [SPEAKER_00]: usually with quality defense.

[SPEAKER_00]: I actually don't know how good their defense was this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: They have reputationally good defense, but I'll have to check on that to see where KC was after this season.

[SPEAKER_00]: But it is a more spacious park that will prevent some homers, which he does have a little bit of a problem with, because he's a control guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: He lives in the zone.

[SPEAKER_00]: He wants to beat you in the zone.

[SPEAKER_00]: So while he does have that 12% swing strike rate, it hasn't completely translated to strikeouts yet.

[SPEAKER_00]: Only 21% for Cameron.

[SPEAKER_00]: If he can get [SPEAKER_00]: right around the 24% because you can usually take a swing and strike rate, multiply it by two and get kind of an expected strikeout rate.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you can get up to that 24% I think it can be a fantasy stud, something for his price.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you can get him around the 230s and get like a 370 ERA, 112 to 114 whip.

[SPEAKER_00]: and almost a strikeout per inning because I think they turn them loose next year.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's no reason right you made 24 starts this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Why would you make 30 next year?

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think Cameron's a good volume bet as long as he's healthy.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's 26.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's no need to baby him.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think you can be a sub 4 era guy with a big whip and enough case.

[SPEAKER_00]: And even if the rate doesn't improve, he can beat you.

[SPEAKER_00]: He can get you with volume then.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because if he throws 185 innings, I'll take the 160 something case that comes with that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, absolutely.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I just put up the defensive stats here.

[SPEAKER_01]: The New York spot on the Royals were third in out some of average, or any behind St.

Louis and Houston.

[SPEAKER_01]: And defensive runs say as they were tied with Cleveland for seven.

[SPEAKER_00]: So excellent.

[SPEAKER_00]: So a ball and play guy in a park that's a little bit more spacious to curb a few homers.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, it's not like crazy pitcher park, but it's a little bit more pitcher park with good defense.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's a place to succeed while Cameron tries to figure out the strike I rate if it is going to come forward.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and that's going to where I'm at is, yeah, I do think the year rate comes back a little bit, but at the same time, I think he can offset that by adding three, four, so percent maybe something that 25 ish percent straight go rate range, which I think he's absolutely capable of seeing him in the minor leagues and the stuff he has, you know, [SPEAKER_01]: deep five pitch arsenal pretty pretty good mix of pitches there pretty even distribution for the most part so forcing cut curve change slider so I think you can be 25% key rate guy maybe it's more like a three five year rate but hey that'll play and I still about a top 50 pitcher or so definitely.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so I don't love Cameron, like I did some of these other guys, but I like Cameron and I think he just given all the other bigger sexier names, you know, when this rookie class last year, I feel like he's giving a little slept on, so I think you can get some good value in a lot of different leagues on on Cameron and 206.

[SPEAKER_00]: is going right in between Matthew Point and Merrill Kelly, which is kind of interesting because he's kind of a young version of them.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I want to be clear that just because you're young, you don't inherently have upside-down, I think we do that a little bit too much in fantasy-based power.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because we'll say like an old guy can't have upside-down, but a young guy inherently does, and neither of those are true.

[SPEAKER_00]: Matthew Boyd, for example, had a lot of upside this here because he stayed healthy.

[SPEAKER_00]: But anyway, [SPEAKER_00]: The point is is that we do both believe that Cameron has like that strikeout upside with it.

[SPEAKER_00]: So even if he's just a younger Matthew Boyd or Merrill Kelly, we'll take that at pick 234.

[SPEAKER_00]: But if that strikeout rate jumps, then all of a sudden he's a guy who plays inside the top 200 and you got a much cheaper than that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.

[SPEAKER_01]: Another AL central guy here that had a really good end of the season that I don't think is getting talked about enough, Joey Cantillo, kind of transition from being like that long reliever, kind of multiple inning guy for Cleveland went into the rotation full-time after the All-Star Break, me 10 starts post All-Star Break, a 248-ERA 112-VIP, [SPEAKER_01]: and basically almost a strikeout per inning on the nose 54 k's in 54 and a third innings.

[SPEAKER_01]: So kind of a really sneaky could end to the year to that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think people would already check out for football a little bit when Quentea was kind of having his run.

[SPEAKER_01]: Overall at a 27% strikeout rate, a little bit of a higher walk rate, 10 to that percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: But what do you think about Joey Quentea here, Paul?

[SPEAKER_00]: This is the run I've been waiting for.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've been a Cantio guy for a while.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, and not that long, obviously, because he wasn't the major last year in this year, but somebody that I've been advocating for and each time he comes up, you know, kind of going back to that well, hoping that something can click and down the stretch it finally did.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I don't think we're out of the woods in terms of the volatility that comes with Cantio.

[SPEAKER_00]: because he is definitely a control problem.

[SPEAKER_00]: During this run though, he did get a down to eight percent walk rate.

[SPEAKER_00]: If he can be around eight, nine percent, even 10 percent.

[SPEAKER_00]: We could live a 10 percent still pretty high, but for somebody like him who can trend in the teens at times when he's really off, I'll take something that's right there that eight, nine ideally because he got a lot of swing and miss stuff as a lefty.

[SPEAKER_00]: And Nick Paul, I'd like to underscore this weekend with regards to [SPEAKER_00]: They let their young guys pitch.

[SPEAKER_00]: They let them figure things out on the major stage.

[SPEAKER_00]: If they called them up, they're there to pitch.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if they're pitching well, they're going to be able to get the opportunity at five, six, seven innings.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, with Cantillo, that's going to require not walking guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, he could end up being a five and dive guy even on Cleveland, just because the pitch counts get pushed up too much.

[SPEAKER_00]: But we saw it down the stretch that when he was working at an eight percent rate, that Cantillo was able to make sense of six inning games, including [SPEAKER_00]: masterpiece against Kansas City where he threw eightings or shut out ball with four hits five k's and zero walks.

[SPEAKER_00]: He even had two zero walk games during that run but he did have some four walk games as well and a lot of two mixed in so it's gonna come down to the control but he's two seventy two so he's starting to get into that territory where you're taking guys with at least one war.

[SPEAKER_00]: His is obvious it's clear but it's still something that I'm willing to [SPEAKER_00]: His risk is worth taking on because even if he doesn't quite come all the way I'd probably at least have a team streamer or an easy cut right if it if I look up on May 1st And he's got a 512 VRA then I cut can't deal when I move on Yeah, no, he's definitely one of those guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: You could absolutely do that way of then yeah can't you's a guy that I I was kind of like the little bit, but you know [SPEAKER_01]: he really kind of opened my eyes to the end of the season here.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that change up is absolutely filthy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's already one of the better change ups in all baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I was able to put out a couple of tweets about him in mid September.

[SPEAKER_01]: So these weren't like full end of the season stat.

[SPEAKER_01]: So these might have changed a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I had to tweet so much a couple of days apart that included him.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he was as of the 16th of September, it was ranked second in rookie starting pitcher with [SPEAKER_01]: and then for all of those only four pitchers with a minimum of 200 pitches thrown on an offering to have a wiff rate above 50% on an offering.

[SPEAKER_01]: Can't deal at the time at 51% I did dip down Slayville 50 and to the season but at the time it was him.

[SPEAKER_01]: 51% on the change up for any product up to 50.4% on the slider logging over 51% on the splitter and leading the way it was Zach Wheeler 54 and 1% on the curveball.

[SPEAKER_01]: So just so that with change up as you've barely good, you know, good with potential there with Kentielli's already showing.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I think both him and Cameron kind of sneaky good values this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, like [SPEAKER_00]: If you want to get in on the hype rookie class, I think you should wait again.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not saying that they, that you savage insulin are better than these guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: But it's not big enough for a hundred to a hundred and fifty picks in my opinion.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're much closer, but those other two guys have a lot of hype.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're asking Tion Cameron to find under the radar a bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, not 100%.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you want, we front the better value play this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think, yeah, Cameron, Conteo could be the better value plays there.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's finish out the America League with some guys from my team, the Red Sox, and your team that you Troy Tigers, Red Sox had two fun little rookies here, come up, end of the season.

[SPEAKER_01]: paid and totally made his debut against Paul schemes pitched well then fell off had some some blow ups so a you know overall statline not overly exciting for him but but Conley early came up had four really good outings 24 to four straight up to walk ratio for Conley early [SPEAKER_01]: probably a little bit of a leg up on totally.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's see, we 29 to four shirk up the walk ratio of pardon me, even better than that, 2014 was unbelievable.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 29 to four.

[SPEAKER_01]: He looked at just Savot, I mean, four game sample size, but a lot of red on that simple on page as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's a ton of upside for both of these guys and they're both going in redraft legs patting early It was I think around two to 20 if I recall and and totally was like 50 or so picks after that since you got to wait to see it in the red sox I've said we want to go out and get a number two [SPEAKER_01]: who knows if they do, they have kind of Crawford coming back, obviously Bayo's in the mix, crochet lead in the way, so kind of got to wait and see what the rotation looks like come February March, but you got to figure that both early and totally pitch more in the majors than the minors is upcoming year, so are you intrigued at all by Connelly, early, or Peyton, [SPEAKER_00]: very uh i like both um i don't like saying kindly early's name i don't think you should be able to have an l-y first and last name it's a bad mouth feel pick one of the other but um i do like how you pitch isn't that will not prevent me from taking him because that would be a very stupid reason not to take somebody [SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, the for the for start sample was excellent kind of put him on the radar for everybody But he was having a really strong minor league season as well So if you do follow the miners of course if you listen to this podcast you definitely do So you knew about him already you got the jump on folks and hopefully you took the punch when he came up and got those four starts I do think he has the leg up right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: The draft market absolutely does If you want to take tolly and like a draft and all they think that makes some sense because you are getting [SPEAKER_00]: Nice discount and you don't need everybody playing on opening day in a 15 team draft and hold anyway So even if he doesn't come up until May that's fine like I don't purposely draft guys that I I know will be in the miners But I'm not gonna like run from somebody like that on a pitching aside right when you're drafting 50 players with 15 other teams [SPEAKER_00]: It can't be so picky once you start turning the rounds into the 30s and the 40s and so and totally doesn't even get that far by the way, but as even if it comes in as the 6th or 7th starter I think that's okay because I don't think there was any any way where he was going to get a full season even if he breaks camp right like they're not going to turn him loose for a buck 70.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think so And I don't think he's necessarily ready for that either [SPEAKER_00]: early I do think is a bit closer to that.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's an year older.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's had multiple triple digit workloads as a professional.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think he's just a cut above.

[SPEAKER_00]: They view him as that as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: You should be drafting as such, but don't leave Toli completely out in the dark.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you play in a deep enough league where somebody who plays for even four months can be valuable enough.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then on that draft and hold piece, you're not making moves anyway.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you are kind of you're kind of drafting some of your waiver picks.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to look at Toli like that, [SPEAKER_00]: as a later pickup because I still wrote like his upside thing is probably richer like I think he could actually be maybe a full ace if things like really really really worked out it would take a long way to get there but like he's got the raw stuff for it but early he's going to be a fantasy asset I believe next year like he has a really strong chance to be a nice piece for you for 130 innings.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, I totally agree.

[SPEAKER_01]: I very much been more early over totally in 2026 drafts than long term.

[SPEAKER_01]: I still do, I like both, but I do like totally a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there's like he said there's a bit more upside there.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he throws harder, he can miss more bats, I think the bat missing potential long term is a bit higher.

[SPEAKER_01]: Especially if he starts to go into the second there is a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was [SPEAKER_01]: very foreseemed cutter heavy that was like 84-ish percent.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, once you fingers out, it's comfortable with the change in curve, it's over.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, it totally is potential development and we'll see if it goes, but his potential development again is that of an ace.

[SPEAKER_00]: When you come in with a 119-stuff plus, even in a small sample like this, stuff plus is something that starts to stabilize quickly, you know, Sarah's will tell you that.

[SPEAKER_00]: So even 16 and a third innings while still a small sample.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not a lie that totally stuff is amazing but it came with a 92 location plus as well So he doesn't always know where it's going and like you said he was very fast ball heavy As he was kind of getting his feet wet having some struggles totally makes sense But his development path and if it comes quickly it could already be next year But I'm I'm planning in my head for more of a 27 breakout for Peyton to hold you [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, that's totally fair.

[SPEAKER_01]: And again, I want to see what the Red Sox do if they go out and trade for a Joe Ryan or Freddie Brawl to whoever might be able to pair with Korshay.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, that would be just my dream off season is like trading for it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's say Joe Ryan, because those rumors were already out there.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's straight to the line.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then going on again, like a pedalon, so the play first base, that's like my dream.

[SPEAKER_01]: I know I got that.

[SPEAKER_00]: That'd be so nice for you because you guys got that great system.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, Red Sox fans, I know you had a heart breaking finish to the year.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's such a good spot right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I know it's like they're so close.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, just get get those few extra pieces of put them up.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yep.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's the way you do it.

[SPEAKER_00]: You trade some of these assets.

[SPEAKER_00]: The reason you have a system this deep is to then flip some pieces.

[SPEAKER_00]: It'll barely affect them.

[SPEAKER_00]: Even if they trade a big dog, even if I don't know who you think would be the headliner in that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But even if it's my or something or Campbell, I don't know who's a Joe Ryan headliner, but even if it's a big dog, it's not going to kill the team.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it is the right move to go out and get another ace, I think, to go with crochet.

[SPEAKER_01]: 100, that's what I've been saying to him.

[SPEAKER_01]: I got to outside of for like all the rookies or prospects.

[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously Roman Anthony is untouchable.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm fine.

[SPEAKER_01]: I like the hold on to one of Toli or early, but if you need to get him them into a deal, fine.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm fine trading even if I still like Christian Campbell.

[SPEAKER_01]: Meyer, Elijah, I'm fine.

[SPEAKER_01]: Garcia, whatever.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is why you build this.

[SPEAKER_01]: 100% if it gives me Joe Ryan, 100 green, whoever, yep, all signed me up all day.

[SPEAKER_01]: I will do that 10 times a time.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's finish off the American League with Troy Melton from Paul's Detroit Tigers to Paul mentioned him on his pitcher panel on, I think it was a Saturday morning at first pitch Arizona.

[SPEAKER_01]: Really good season.

[SPEAKER_01]: Mostly in the bullpen from Milton did make a handful of starts overall [SPEAKER_01]: and two-thirds innings, but pitched well in those innings, 2.76 ERA, 1.01 whip, solid, block rate just above 8%, key rate, but wasn't quite there, but you definitely saw some intrigue here from Toy Meldon and some potential breakout appeal here in 2026, so how much are you liking Toy Meldon here?

[SPEAKER_00]: quite a bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: He was my breakout pick, you know, we had a outline that we followed and talked about a bunch of guys in different categories and then at the end pick one, you know, pick somebody that you like and I went with Troy Mountain.

[SPEAKER_00]: Not just as a Homer pick, you know, anyone that's listening to my stuff are read it long enough.

[SPEAKER_00]: No, it's not just a crazy Homer that's tigers, this tiger's that, but when we got a good one, I'm happy to promote it and I think Troy Mountain is that dude.

[SPEAKER_00]: he's been an awesome minor league or two and he's been a little bit obscured in the depth of that system you know a lot of Jackson Joe and even Matt Manning was getting a ton of love of which I was part of all admit but you know not it's not me too.

[SPEAKER_00]: I couldn't help it fall for him but then try mountain kind of got obscured and all the way up he's just been a really strong guy [SPEAKER_00]: Missing a ton of bats not walking too many having a little bit of home ratio, but part of that goes back to the walk right again When you're gonna live in the zone, you're gonna have some home runs.

[SPEAKER_00]: I deal here.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're gonna be so low's and I think that that can be refined I think it's got a deep enough arsenal to figure out how to live in the zone and not get beat with fast balls or Get beat with the home run ball [SPEAKER_00]: 97 mile per hour heat.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean he's got all the tools and I do think after this year What we have here?

[SPEAKER_00]: That's 8022 innings plus a little bit in the playoffs and I think you would all be only at what maybe two innings in the playoffs But either way [SPEAKER_00]: He's ready for a big season.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's ready for 165 plus innings this year for Troy Melton, and I'm really, really excited about what he can do.

[SPEAKER_00]: He did add another eight, and in terms of experience, I've heard both smalls and Verlander say, you count about 1.25 to 1.5 for innings in the playoffs, at least in terms of first off wear and tear, but also for the experience that they're giving you.

[SPEAKER_00]: So even if you want to count that eight, [SPEAKER_00]: as closer to 12 or whatever, and tack that on to things.

[SPEAKER_00]: Then you're talking about a guy who had like 130 plus endings of experience.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't see why they can't get a buck 70 out of him.

[SPEAKER_00]: And he's got the edge on a job right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: I know Sola here gives him long fans or a little bit bummed on that.

[SPEAKER_00]: He'll likely be the team's six, you know, flaredies back, so it's gonna be scuba flaredy, my eyes locked, and then all send a penny on his health, and then Milton right there at the five, while they still have some depth behind them, I just think Milton's ready to be an absolute stud.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, now I think the silver lining, if there's this of a lot into a guy like Jackson Joe meeting Tommy John, is that it may be this give us a tremendous chance to pop off that he might have gotten if Joe was healthy right now heading in the 2026 and he had the his surgery in mid June so.

[SPEAKER_01]: You got to imagine it's like all of our break at the earliest for Jackson Job.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you at least get by the time he's back.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, exactly.

[SPEAKER_00]: And by the time he's back unfortunately also will be here again.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I hope I'm wrong on that, but I was such a huge fan and I remain a huge fan.

[SPEAKER_00]: By the way, because the town was still there.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think we're both justified, you know.

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, the 69 innings that we did get were nice and I'm not just doing the meme like he did pitch well, but we got to see it I was really hoping that after 104 and 12 innings that we were going to get the buck 50 from Olson I think they give my other chance this year at age 26 But if he if he fops again then they might just be trying to shorten his innings Even though that doesn't work by the way moving to the bullpen or making a guy to it that doesn't keep you any healthier [SPEAKER_00]: But I do worry that if Olson can't make it through another season that maybe they give up letting him be a full-time starter.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, probably.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I was, I've always been a big resource in guide too and I had a lot of shares last year and it was, yeah, like you said, looking good early in the year and then unfortunately, it's another prolonged IELS since.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll be back in though, because again, the market's going to drop him for us, he's down to 270.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's actually a little bit more expensive than I expected.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll be curious if he holds that all year and he's actually right in between when pre-stern Joey Cantio so that's a tougher decision than I thought because I like all three of those guys, but generally though I still do like Olson as long as he's healthy I don't see any reason he can't be good as well 100% All right over to the nationally now starting with Nolan McLean who just went absolute gangbusters on the nationally [SPEAKER_01]: you know hitters end of the season eight starts two zero six year a one zero four whip eight and a half percent walk around thirty point three percent strike out right in if you just watch him it's you know wiffle ball stopiest two pitches honestly one with above three thousand spin rate on average but two that are above twenty nine hundred [SPEAKER_01]: Sweets were incredible like he can spin them with the best of them and it's a guy that you know he's still learning how to be he's still a new to being a full-time pitcher because he was a two-way player as about like roughly two years ago yeah because things weren't easy to give up being a hit or so this is a guy that's only been a full-time pitcher for two years and he's already you know maybe you know probably is the ace of the New York match at this point after this eight starts so [SPEAKER_00]: Exciting stuff exciting, you know stats and exciting metrics right now already popping off So are you buying the the big pop-off we saw from normal clean this one's tough because I love the town This is a guy that I discovered and I say discovered I mean for me and out of the park baseball Because like when you play an offline sim they have like the [SPEAKER_00]: first three or four or five seasons of prospects loaded in to give you real life prospects for each of your drafts.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think for four seasons, they get all the data from perfect game.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so in a couple of my since a couple of years ago, no one would claim, always had these two ways stats.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I was like, who the hell is this guy in this picture who's got some like actual hitting?

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you can see I've listed some real pop.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so that's how I learned about him and I kind of kept tabs on him through that.

[SPEAKER_00]: I told me that no idea that he was until seeing him in out of the park baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, learned he was a real guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: It wasn't like a fictional guy that was being built into the game.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I was like, oh my god, this guy's such a beast.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's a two-way stud.

[SPEAKER_00]: And now, as he's like you said, still just learning pitching is just learning the finer points.

[SPEAKER_00]: He went the other way with the walk rate stuff.

[SPEAKER_00]: He was putting double digits all the way up this year, double in tripway.

[SPEAKER_00]: He gets to the majors eight and a half.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't usually go for the decimal.

[SPEAKER_00]: I did it just because it sounds better than nine, but even nine will take it.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm somebody who likes to round because I don't think eight and a half versus nine.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think there's any precision there to be gained.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm doing that a little bit with tongue and cheek.

[SPEAKER_00]: But nine percent, again, we'll take that.

[SPEAKER_00]: What did I say with Kentio?

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, if your stuff is that good and his stuff is way better than Kentio's.

[SPEAKER_00]: If your stuff is that good, just be under 10% walk rate.

[SPEAKER_00]: Anything under 10.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll take 9.8, we'll round it to 10, but give me anything under 10%.

[SPEAKER_00]: I can live with when you're striking out 30% of your batters.

[SPEAKER_00]: He is so nasty, the problem.

[SPEAKER_00]: If there is one, is that the market totally agrees with everything I'm saying and then some.

[SPEAKER_00]: He is pick 108, Eric, and I just, [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, man.

[SPEAKER_00]: Listen, I buy you an unguised, un-small samples.

[SPEAKER_00]: I try to trust the talent that I'm seeing.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not afraid of necessarily buying a lighter track record, but a near-top 100-pick for 50, not even 50 major league innings.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's a little tough.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think I'm a little gun shy, so I just don't know, and it is less about McLean.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then you look at who's going right by him, like Carlos Rodon.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've been somebody last year who didn't pitch, but he's back in the market completely calibrated.

[SPEAKER_00]: He barely pitch.

[SPEAKER_00]: I should say, pitch down the stretch.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think I'd rather go there.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think I'd rather go Nicola, though, even though I have some concerns about him.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's 30 picks cheaper.

[SPEAKER_00]: Nicola, don't be 30 picks cheaper than no one McLean.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, even understanding because of any injuries with him right in the whole park Right, those are the two big things people say and I all greet because I'm actually a little bit of a Lidolo Dislike or in terms of his draft price.

[SPEAKER_00]: I get nervous about Cincinnati guys So I'm not even a Lidolo guy here, but I'm still saying like [SPEAKER_00]: I think I've seen so much more out of him as a major leader, even understanding the injuries.

[SPEAKER_00]: He did go about 56 this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: He did have 28 stars, 29 appearances.

[SPEAKER_00]: So even though injury did hit again, he still had a full season.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.

[SPEAKER_00]: McLean, the hype is just too high.

[SPEAKER_00]: To put a ball on it, I just can't do it at that price point.

[SPEAKER_00]: Not what the guy's going around him.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's fair is that he out of all these all the hype guys this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has the highest 80 or the earliest 80 PS I should say by I think it's good.

[SPEAKER_01]: Two rounds or so.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the next guy in ADP might be this next guy here who is probably my favorite long-term of all these guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that that sounds like I like a lot of these guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: Chase Burns.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, no, one start a very hit a couple blow up so that you know the ERA balloon to four five seven But just look at sixty seven straightouts and 43 in the third innings and something I mentioned on my panel There were you know, reviews for twenty six panel was you know If you look at starting pictures with at least forty innings this century Only two guys had a higher strike of mine as walkerate than chase birds [SPEAKER_01]: It was Spencer Strider in 2022 and Steven Strassberg back in what year was that 2010, 1112, and summers were on it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I forget the exact year.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that was shows.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, those two guys, obviously, you know, it was 2010.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: I knew it was summers around there.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, and obviously, the whip was a little high.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, there's the home ball par.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's kind of only a two pitch guy right now, though.

[SPEAKER_01]: through the change up 10% against lefties.

[SPEAKER_01]: It is a decent change up just barely ever uses it, but that slider is so filthy.

[SPEAKER_01]: He can hit triple digits.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you look at, you know, this is kind of just more of a fun thing that I like to see, you know, on Savannah, obviously, the similar pitchers to, you know, Chase Burns based on B-Lum movement, you know, three of those names are Jacob DeGrom, 100-Gree and Dylan Seas.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that's unbelievable.

[SPEAKER_00]: I love that like I like looking at this stuff, too.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like it's not.

[SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't mean I draft them Because of that or think that he's that guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: I agree with you.

[SPEAKER_00]: I know you're putting that cavity on it and so people don't think you're saying that he is them But it's trying to express how disgusting Chase Burns's stuff is.

[SPEAKER_00]: It is so top tier and You know again 43 things so again a tiny sample you mentioned the park.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've always been [SPEAKER_00]: scared of hunter green be usually because of his park in injury combo, you know, we mentioned with the most same thing park in injury combo And hunter green, you know, I was like I'm off of him this year because I don't think the home runs are gonna hold I was right about that part It didn't matter though, Eric because he's so good that even though his home runs went from 0.7 to 1.3 [SPEAKER_00]: He kept his IRA exactly the same from 275 to 276 and he lowered his whip from 102 to 0.94.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, it took three years to get there.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so what I'm saying is I'm making some links here on purpose between Burns and Green.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think we've got the blue print.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've seen it.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think we would go through some of the similar struggles.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now that said, that doesn't mean that I wouldn't pay the price for 135 here on the chance that green or excuse me that burns gets to the green level quicker than green did.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm willing to take that bet because first off, his strikeout or his walk strikeout to walk rate day one has been better.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think his his raw stuff and more importantly, his raw command profile, I think is better day one.

[SPEAKER_00]: then greens is.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I do think a 135 ADP while still high and I've like I said I've blocked on some of these guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's the one I'd pay for right now in this 130's range between burns, Schlittler, and your savage.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mentioned Schlittler over your savage burns is a little bit more expensive at 135 to Schlittler's 137 if it's between those two it's burns easily for me.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm right there with you.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think burns can be a true ace.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just if he develops that change a little bit more make the legit third offering.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's a legit ace in this league and I don't not throw on that term lately.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's only a few prospects.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's where he's the have that ace frontline upside and chase burns is absolutely one of them.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I do lean burns over McLean as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think both are phenomenal arms, obviously.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I've always been a huge burn size.

[SPEAKER_01]: My number one pitching prospect for a reason.

[SPEAKER_01]: and yeah and the upside is absolutely massive with him.

[SPEAKER_00]: And just to show like that I'm one of saying about how I don't just only go for guys with calm demeanor.

[SPEAKER_00]: I love chase burns and he's a freak.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: Oh yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: I love that about him.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got that dog and I'm for sure.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes he does.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's out there.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's always amped up.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's like his hell.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm cool with it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and this next guy kind of falls into that boat too and right there in the annual central Jacob, Missierowski, I think it's really anybody that, you know, it's fall prospect rankings like this guy has always been so incredibly hard to to rank is because it's almost like the minor league versions of my title class now where it's like, [SPEAKER_01]: It's neat stuff, but there's been some injuries.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's been a super high walk rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: Then that came down this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's when he got this call up to Milwaukee, up and down, Stint with Milwaukee, but another guy had a ton of strikeouts, 87 in the 66 and things, the 32% strikeout rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: Walk rate was 11%, but with his stuff, I mean, you kind of mentioned the earlier, which I've always called the Ferti Paralty Rule.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you can keep your walkway in that 9-10% range while having elite swing and miss stuff, if you're having like a 30-ish percent K rate, that can play.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, with Miss Yerowski, can you keep it in the 10% range?

[SPEAKER_01]: She's shown a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: He can not like a huge track record of keeping it there.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, I'm still kind of, you know, a little gun shy about, [SPEAKER_01]: fully going all in on him like I am on Chase Burns, but man, it's hard to argue that there's any more exciting picture, or he's like top five just on pure excitement when you throw 100 102, when you have 95 miles on our spiders, 92 miles on our changeups, like everything is just nasty and hard for this guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: His slowest pitch is the 87 mile on our curve ball, which is very hard.

[SPEAKER_01]: for a curve ball, you know, probably the average curve ball velocity is probably 81 or something like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So very exciting profile, but some red flags here.

[SPEAKER_01]: So how do you balance all that out?

[SPEAKER_01]: And are you a misarrowsky guy, Paul?

[SPEAKER_01]: Man, it's hard to be so tough.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's impossible not to be like, when you look at the stuff, am I in on him as a elite talent?

[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.

[SPEAKER_00]: Can't I pay the buck 35?

[SPEAKER_00]: He's right here in this exact same class.

[SPEAKER_00]: that we've been talking about this one, you know, called a Diive 70, because all these guys go in a tight band to put Miss Roski right there at 135.

[SPEAKER_00]: Chase Burns and him have technically the same ADP at average of 135 obviously.

[SPEAKER_00]: They can't both go 135 in a draft, but they're right there in that same range.

[SPEAKER_00]: And between those two, man, I would really labor on that, because I don't know that I can make major distinctions between them.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, Burns's walk rate was better in the majors.

[SPEAKER_00]: right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: But Miss Roskeh's stuff was absolutely obscene.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think he located better than then his walk rate might make you think.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's where something like location plus can help.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was 104.

[SPEAKER_00]: So he was 4% better than the average, which again, you might not think that with an 11% walk rate.

[SPEAKER_00]: So [SPEAKER_00]: I'm with you, he needs to get that in that nine range that we want, nine percent or better, but even if he doesn't, the strikeout upside is so huge and the upside if he hits, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: We talk a lot about downside.

[SPEAKER_00]: And like how these guys can end up being cut or, you know, send back to the miners or do a 512 VRA.

[SPEAKER_00]: I obviously understand that the upside is is low that they're going to reach like a status.

[SPEAKER_00]: But it is top 20 SP season if they hit right.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you have to decide is pick 130 somewhere where you want to make that boom bust pick.

[SPEAKER_00]: Do you want to take somebody maybe a little bit more stable but boring is hell, like Luis Castillo.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I think lean type would determine that and maybe a deeper lean you'd be more inclined to do that because the replacement level isn't going to be as high But in shower lean you take the shiny new toilet commiseroscier burns because you can probably get a Castillo type substance in a 10 or 12 team waiver wires.

[SPEAKER_00]: So [SPEAKER_00]: That is probably the domination that I make.

[SPEAKER_00]: And now, not Castillo specifically, I probably still wouldn't take him, but maybe like a Michael King who goes in that spot, I think I would take a couple of weeks.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I think I'm gonna go with a Michael King or even a Pablo Lopez, if we have reports that he's all healthy and everything.

[SPEAKER_00]: Did he finish this season on the mound?

[SPEAKER_00]: Lopez I think I can't remember if he did I would put him in that category as well with King where I would probably take them because those two are going right in the 140s so they're going right behind that group of hype guys yeah he did of 919 so he came back and September but he did finish on the I.L.

[SPEAKER_00]: for Lopez so he would be TBD depending on his health but I would take Michael King over the hype guys in deeper formats I think in a [SPEAKER_00]: I'm a coin flip on them every day.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think you ask me.

[SPEAKER_00]: You can ask me every day and I might change my answer damn you're every day.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, I'm right there with you.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think for 2026 I go burns [SPEAKER_01]: then probably a kind of all these guys, then probably mis, uh, mis addressing McLeaner.

[SPEAKER_01]: Burns is my one, the two M's I'm kind of.

[SPEAKER_00]: Burns McLean is, is probably where I'm at.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, which means I could change all three.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because if I'm saying I could put Burns over Mizrahaski or Mizrahaski over Burns on any given day that would mean McLean could then move around too.

[SPEAKER_00]: Is it McLean or McLean?

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know which.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if I'm saying it wrong.

[SPEAKER_00]: Chat, let me.

[SPEAKER_01]: I've always come McLean.

[SPEAKER_01]: I haven't been corrected.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I've gone McLean all the way through.

[SPEAKER_00]: And these more expensive too, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: He is 30 picks higher than them.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if it's on a crossed basis, it is definitely Burns Mizrahaski.

[SPEAKER_00]: Then McLean that I would be interested in.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think I'm just passing McLean at pick 105.

[SPEAKER_01]: which is totally fair but to your point like what it surprised you I think the three if you if you tell me that out of all these guys we've talked about that three of them we're going to be drafted as top 15 top 20 arms next year as like basically fantasy aces.

[SPEAKER_01]: I probably say if I had picked three I'd probably be the least three we've mentioned.

[SPEAKER_01]: McLean and Burns and Miss Yerowski more a little bit more so than they should learn your savage and all of them so.

[SPEAKER_00]: Totally agree totally agree and I would throw an outside shot my boy mountain again Not just cuz it's tiger, but the depth of our snow combined with the velocity is what intrigues me so much Ericsson Mosky did an amazing presentation.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes on what it takes to be a top 25 type picture [SPEAKER_00]: And he had this whole rubric that he laid out of things that he looks at these checklist.

[SPEAKER_00]: You don't have to hit every single one, but these are things that you look at.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then if they don't hit a threshold, understand why, and how can they get there?

[SPEAKER_00]: And do they have something to cover for it?

[SPEAKER_00]: And it was just such an amazing presentation.

[SPEAKER_00]: Former teacher, I finally, I learned.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it made sense why he was so good because everything was just so crystal clear The easy to take away the information and the depth of arsenal for Melton is such an additional bonus to having 97 You can live with 97 and have two pictures, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: We see you guys do it, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: But we're watching Burns basically do it if that change up isn't there right now [SPEAKER_00]: But when you have five, six pitches as well, and you can throw that hard, it just gives you such a wider margin for air.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's why I love Milton too, and I think he gets sneak up there.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I'm with you that it would be the two Amazon burns that I would pick to be fantasy aces in 2027.

[SPEAKER_00]: If we had to pick that right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and you can tell Eric say, I agree.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was at that presentation, phenomenal, great work.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then when he had the initial hand to just up the top 25 pictures from last year, and he had the big stack.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's like, you're taking one and pass it around.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those were the take one and pass it around.

[SPEAKER_01]: How many times did we hear that in school growing up?

[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I missed the early part so that's you know, I wasn't there for the first few minutes And if I had heard that I wouldn't know he was a teacher instantly, but like about a quarter of the way Threat I mean over the neck I'm like he is amazing at this.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's like yeah, he's a former teacher I was like, okay, that makes every bit of sense in the world 100% does all right two more names and then we got a little group of players at the animal that's kind of fire through [SPEAKER_01]: Another nl central guy, Kate Horton, who just finished second in national league, rookie of the year voting to Drake Baldwin, but a very, very good year from Horton, and maybe one of the best, there was a him and Rogers were tech two of the best pitchers of the second of the season overall for Horton, he made 23 starts, 118 innings, 267 E&RA, 1 0 8 whip, another guy where, you know, the wiff rate and the K rate don't really line up, it was a blow average strikeout rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: But in above average with rate and it got us always had good swing and missed stuff I mean he throws hard ninety six got a good sweeper solid change up his way look at those second areas Sweeper change up curve ball all between like 10 and 20% usage rate all had a batting average against under 200 You know two of those had a whip rate above 36% the change up was 48% [SPEAKER_01]: So I definitely think that K rate ticks up like he's not going to be a 20 was at 20.4% K rate guy next year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe that ERA ticks up a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe more like 3334, but if he's that with a 20 above average K rate, that's still like a top 40 or so arms.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe he's on that level of the end.

[SPEAKER_01]: The arms are the burn just even the passages.

[SPEAKER_01]: I still think there's a really, really good picture here with Kate Horton.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm definitely [SPEAKER_00]: I am as well and he goes down at pick one eighty I think you sent them sorry I was looking it up when I thought I heard you say it and I wasn't paying attention fully but either way he's 180 P so he is cheaper than that group for a reason because he's not quite as developed but I think without fully analyzing the repertoire.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because I don't have the minor league date and I wouldn't know exactly where to find it.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I wonder did he sacrifice some of his strikeout rate for the control boost?

[SPEAKER_00]: Because it tripled a K-tort and all be it in a small sample was 31% K's 12% walk.

[SPEAKER_00]: He gets to the majors and goes 20% K's but only 7% walk.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's a trade.

[SPEAKER_00]: I am okay with a youngster making when you have 96 on your VLO and an arsenal of pitches.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, going back to what we talked about with them to the arsenal and he had both of those things.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, he ran a 258 bab, and if that had been closer to 300, no, he wouldn't have had a 267 ERA.

[SPEAKER_00]: but there's a lot of wiggle room between 267 and like not being useful in fantasy.

[SPEAKER_00]: So even if the babbip does regress, which we expect it to, just by nature of babbip, like you said, three, three, five range for an ERA with a good whip if you keep the walk rate while improving the strikeout rate, because that's why I think his next step is going to be for Horton, is to...

[SPEAKER_00]: Let me incorporate my nastiness of stuff to get back to my strikeouts without giving up all the walks so that I keep that balance.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm really intrigued by him.

[SPEAKER_00]: And this weekend back in Arizona really crystallized how good he was for me because I had kind of missed just how excellent he was down the stretch and I cannot believe when I was looking at the game.

[SPEAKER_00]: I was like, damn, I kind of missed it because I didn't have money any team but Kate Orton.

[SPEAKER_00]: He was winning people leagues in April on September.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, he absolutely was and unfortunately, I didn't have any shares of him.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yep, that was a miss on my part, but hey, you live and you learn, but you're a kid or, and yeah, he's always had, you know, the sweeper has always been a good picture him.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I do agree, you know, I think what you said was true.

[SPEAKER_01]: in the sense that he, I think he did kind of like dial it back a bit to get, you know, a little bit more command than he had, not that he was ever like bad command control in the manner.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he definitely, I think he definitely kind of made that trade off a little bit and maybe he, you know, we've seen guys do that and then the next year.

[SPEAKER_01]: go kind of take that next step back forward with you know the the sexy stuff right the swing of this stuff so while maintaining the the gains you made in community control so yeah I think court and he's on the guy that that's still you know compared to others his age a little bit on the you know lesser experience side a little bit rarer than most you can't argue broke out his last year didn't he also hit and owe you [SPEAKER_00]: I think he did he I think he might have yeah, I think he was flirting with a little too way potential not not as as rigorously as McLean, but I think he had a little too way vibe as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, and so yeah, I mean, that's the only bad thing about it was anyone to owe you, but he can't fix that now.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll have to just push forward with it.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll come on as baby.

[SPEAKER_01]: right there you go all right last name before we get into like the kind of bigger glob of names at the end this guy definitely have the worst year out of all of these names talent wise he's you know maybe he's not quite on par but he's he's up there terms it's arm talent but unfortunately he has ROCK iES across the front of his jersey [SPEAKER_01]: So Chase Dolander, overall 652 ERA in 21 starts, 155 weapon, and probably the most radical home road splits you'll ever see on the road this year in was at 10 starts, 346 ERA, 117 weapon, pretty damn solid.

[SPEAKER_01]: at home 9.98 ERA in a 1.98 weight.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's, it's just, you know, like, you see, you see the potential, like on the road, like, all right, this guy could be, maybe like a front line guy, but this guy could be, like a top 40, top 50 fantasy arm, but obviously you just can't start him in half your game.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, like, you know, do you have any interest at all here, Paul, or are you just out because of [SPEAKER_00]: I really am in most cases with the lander.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just can't because it's half a picture and it's on the road where players are historically worse.

[SPEAKER_00]: For obvious reasons, they're not in their own park, they're on the road travel and it's just more uncomfortable to be on the road.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, Rocky's pictures obviously a unique beast where a lot of them are better just by virtue of the fact that they're not in that crazy park anymore.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I do understand that and I expect that he can maintain being better.

[SPEAKER_00]: but it puts so much pressure on his road work and it also means that like any bomb on the road just stings so much because you're only gonna get what like 12 13 starts out of him anyway [SPEAKER_00]: I just, I don't know, maybe a draft champions were, again, where we're getting so late.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's pick 600.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know he's going to get an opportunity, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: He threw 98 innings this here.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's the Rockies, I shouldn't say.

[SPEAKER_00]: I shouldn't say anything obvious that they're going to do because they don't do the obvious stuff.

[SPEAKER_00]: But generally, you would think the 24 year old pitcher threw 98 innings.

[SPEAKER_00]: What I have an opportunity to take 30 turns next year and get 160 plus innings.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you could at least get, [SPEAKER_00]: maybe closer to 15 road starts, so I could see maybe trying to milk that in a draft champions, but that's really it, and that's a 50 round draft in all.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it has to be like the round 40s or something.

[SPEAKER_00]: So no, I like to land in my heart literally sank a little bit when he got drafted to the Rockies as it does with any intriguing picture.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm glad Jeff Hoffman finally got out of there, took a while last year when he went to Philly and then this year at Toronto, but I always loved him, but he was a Colorado Rockie, and John Gray.

[SPEAKER_00]: love him, but he's a Colorado Rocky.

[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, they'll enter.

[SPEAKER_00]: You can't really draft them anywhere, but something crazy deep where the volume alone might be worth it to start them seven times.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm glad you brought up like the DC or just the deeper format.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're like, all right, if you have a deep enough bench, you're like, all right, you can start them and just the road starts, especially maybe, you know, there's maybe a couple of weeks a year where you might have two road starts in one single week.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, if you can get like 15 starts, you know, 80, just 85 innings of a mid three ERA in solid K rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think that can have some value there if it's as long as you just make sure you pension when [SPEAKER_01]: You know, playing course, but yeah, I said of that.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to even like this this shows that even the this may probably is the best arm or at least if not the best one of the top two or three arms that Colorado has ever had in terms of young talent.

[SPEAKER_00]: But chorus field remains on the feet and you know this is old news now at this point But I remember getting in a bunch of little Twitter spats about Mark has about how you figured it out And I said no, he didn't save me and it was just like these people want to fight me tooth and nail And I'm like, what are we doing here?

[SPEAKER_00]: This is the most guaranteed lock but ever Coors all ways wins [SPEAKER_01]: it's a bomber but it is what it is and so just you can't you can't get attached to pictures there it's a losing proposition unfortunately I even do enter can't wake it work unfortunately sad but yeah it's true all right there was so many other good of these are the kind of the most exciting names talk about there's a bunch of other good rookies this year that had bearing levels of success and ending so [SPEAKER_01]: I figured I just mentioned all these names and see if, you know, Paul, any of these guys stand out to you, either positively, negatively, like, oh, hey, I'm voting that guy out together or hey, I like this guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a sleeper, whatever.

[SPEAKER_01]: However, you want to roll a bit, but a few other names here, Chad Patrick from Milwaukee, Shane Smith from the White Sox, Jack later from the Rangers, Jacob Lopez from the athletics.

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll warn from the Yankees and Hirsten Waldrip from the Braves.

[SPEAKER_01]: Any name positively or negatively, stand out there for your Paul.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, Star and Jacob Wellb has a basically just say that he's a baby, don't end or mean he can really only use him in half the starts.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think Sacramento really started to play the way we all expected it would down the stretch.

[SPEAKER_00]: It took a while for the summer to heat up their Justin Mason who lives out in that area was kind of on that all year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, oh, we've had an unseasonably cool summer.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then it kind of turned in like late July into August.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we saw that everyone was getting bombed out there after a while, including Lopez himself.

[SPEAKER_00]: So again, it really mitigates how often you can use him, because you almost never want to use him at home.

[SPEAKER_00]: I like the talent, but I just don't know that I can trust him.

[SPEAKER_00]: Shane Smith's the one I really want to dial in on.

[SPEAKER_00]: If I can backpad a little on a tough season, I'm going to take a few wins.

[SPEAKER_00]: I was really keyed in on him after seeing him in spring.

[SPEAKER_00]: He just came away, really impressive.

[SPEAKER_00]: Learn that he came from the Milwaukee system.

[SPEAKER_00]: A system I generally trust and some of that runoff.

[SPEAKER_00]: When you're deep enough, system you're runoff talent.

[SPEAKER_00]: You guys that you can't just keep, you can't keep because of the rule five.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be intriguing.

[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of times I'm going to need to look where you've got a rule five guy from.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if it's from a particularly deep and strong organization, that will get my attention.

[SPEAKER_00]: That may be put a little star on, [SPEAKER_00]: Unchained Smith before the spring then I watched him in spring and it was only a small couple small samples But I just really came away like and what he was doing Thought he had a chance to win the job.

[SPEAKER_00]: He took it he pitched really well too and he even had a really nice trajectory where he came out really hot Shane Smith was like the talking the town for a while as like this on a nowhere white sucks picture [SPEAKER_00]: hit the skids big time for a nice little six seven start low there.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, ah, this he pumped in these things.

[SPEAKER_00]: I even cut about that time to be honest because I was like, well, I got I got a lot of innings of a 370 year.

[SPEAKER_00]: I let me get out of here before this really craters, but he bounced back and he finished strong.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that really, really impressed me.

[SPEAKER_00]: I still stand by the decision to cut him because it made sense for where I was and when I thought maybe his season was going to go.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the fact that he rallied and finished strong.

[SPEAKER_00]: Really impressed me so he's made it through the ringer of a 30s 29 start season so not quite 30, but that's that's good enough for me And I think this white sex team is on the rise.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've been saying it since the beginning of last year They were still bad this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't say they were gonna be good, but their system is good [SPEAKER_00]: and they're starting to put more and more quality talent in the major league team.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think this is the year 26 where they're going to take a step.

[SPEAKER_00]: And by the step, I mean, you know, going from 61s to like 74, but a 14 win improvement is pretty huge.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that would make Shane Smith pretty viable in all formats because you can actually expect to win every once in a while.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely, I was just going to say that too.

[SPEAKER_01]: That the whites are starting to build something.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I was talking with Mike Carter out there in Arizona.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a white sucks guy and he's got some positivity back after a couple really tough years obviously with the whites.

[SPEAKER_01]: But what did it combine for like eight, maybe 85 wins combined the last two years?

[SPEAKER_00]: Think it is that bad.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's been yeah, it was like 41 and then 40.

[SPEAKER_00]: No, no, no, no, they had 60 this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, 101 and 60.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, because because again, they played they played a bit what better down the stretch too.

[SPEAKER_00]: So they've already started to show a little bit with some of the prospects coming up 11 and 14.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're not going to write home about a 440 win percentage, but that's pretty good for a crappy team down the stretch to you know be competitive and so that's the first step there And I think they're just going to be adding [SPEAKER_00]: more and more talent around guys like Smith and I don't think it's going to cost him his job by the way because that first time I think they're bringing up mostly hitting talent anyway but I don't think there's a ton of pitching talent that's going to force him out.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think at the very least Shane Smith even if everything works out for the White Sachs and they really turn this thing around by 2728 he could still be a mid rotation guy for them.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's only 25 years old or 26 next year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, I 100% agree with there.

[SPEAKER_01]: The one I wanted to mention real quick.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hurston Waldrip with the Atlanta Craves.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's the guy that, you know, I used to like a lot, but the fast ball was terrible.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the fast ball still isn't great, but he's kind of gone more.

[SPEAKER_01]: You kind of switches up.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was more for seemer back then.

[SPEAKER_01]: There was a bad forseemer.

[SPEAKER_01]: This look at him in small sample size in 2024, but the forseemer had a 308 batting average against the 7, 6, 9, slug.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's terrible.

[SPEAKER_01]: But then he went more sinker cutter this year barely even used the foreseamer.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's still very splitter heavy with a very very good splitter 150 batting average against 225 slug and a 45% wiff rate and he started throwing a curve ball more.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm a good ad that breaking ball in.

[SPEAKER_01]: He kind of gave up the slider went more with a curve ball still has a slider but the arsenal changed and I think it changed for the better.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, we're going to, he's still, you know, very predictable, because 42 out of his, what was a total out of his 55 strikeouts were on that splitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: So they kind of know, all right, two strikes.

[SPEAKER_01]: Good, you know what you're getting.

[SPEAKER_01]: But at the same time, they knew it and they still couldn't hit it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I already mentioned those metrics.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I like the way he kind of switched up the arsenal a bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm not as high at him as I am, what is the other guys, but [SPEAKER_01]: I think there's some intrigue there.

[SPEAKER_01]: He'll be in that rotation the start of the year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think there's definitely some intrigue and some additional breakout potential for Waldrupp who had a 280 ERA-119 whip and right around a straight go per inning.

[SPEAKER_01]: A little bit of a higher walk rate guy and that 9-10% range as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: definitely some upside and if that kind of the arsenal changes that we saw this past year stick, you know, maybe even goes to the curb while you're more, you know, I think there's some additional break-up potential there for mold drip.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, the mold drip is on an org that will trust their young starters when they're excelling.

[SPEAKER_00]: They don't just limit them artificially if they're pitching well, they're going.

[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I like mold drip, I think that's a good shout, five-pitch arsenal.

[SPEAKER_00]: And when we call something that a pitch folks, the shorthand there is that they draw at least 10% of the time.

[SPEAKER_00]: and for him it's at least 11% with all five of the pitches.

[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, a lot's to like with Waldrup as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, that's got to wrap us up.

[SPEAKER_01]: Paul, thank you so much.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was a pleasure talking to you as always.

[SPEAKER_01]: Catching up with you out in Arizona.

[SPEAKER_01]: What are you going on over now?

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, thanks for having me on, Erica.

[SPEAKER_00]: I really appreciate it.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're getting the pod going.

[SPEAKER_00]: We take the month of October.

[SPEAKER_00]: We kind of decompress a little bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we did the Falling One, which will go up Tuesday if you're listening to this.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.

[SPEAKER_00]: When are you putting this out?

[SPEAKER_01]: It'll be on Tuesday.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if you listen to this on Tuesday, you can finally bring the bus that was so on Tuesday as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: No, we've back on a regular schedule a couple of times a week.

[SPEAKER_00]: I got some articles coming out.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm working on starting pitcher and write ups right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's why I haven't had as many articles because I'm getting all my write ups done for the big rankings release, which will be coming before you know it.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I know it's only November 10th and when we're looking at, I think, at December.

[SPEAKER_00]: third release or something whenever whatever.

[SPEAKER_00]: Oh no, I think Monday is December 1st.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think it is supposed to be December 1st release for our big rankings, but that'll be here before you know it.

[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, that's where I'm basically what I'm working on as an occasional article.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll have more pods going and then the big first first wave release of the SP rankings on December 1st.

[SPEAKER_01]: Awesome.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's that time of year.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're us degenerates are already looking ahead.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's never tourally based on never dies, but thanks again to Paul Spore, obviously you follow him on Twitter at Spore, SPO, RER.

[SPEAKER_01]: Super in the bus podcast, obviously the best in the business.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks everyone for tuning in.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hope you enjoyed it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'll be back with you again next week, but until then, everyone take care.