Zoe Media.

All Right, we're back.

I'm ed Zetron and this is better offline.

This is the fourth and final episode of this four part series where I dissect in excruciating comprehensive detail the AI bubble and tell you why I think its implosion is inevitable.

We're at the end, which is fitting because in this episode we're going to talk about why and how this entire sham dies again.

If you jumping in now, start from the beginning.

We talk about a lot of things and it all kind of threads together.

I know, I know you want to hear my explanation of how open ai is fucked with a capital fuck.

But we've got to lay the groundwork to get there.

Okay, got up, good, Good, We're good.

We're god, You're ready, We're good, You're got yep, yep.

Okay, we'll begin.

One of the comfortable lies that people tell themselves is that the AI bubble is similar to the fiber boom or the dot com boom or uber, or that we're in the growth stay, that this is what software companies do.

They spend a bunch of money, then pull the profit lever.

The thing is, this is nothing like anything you've ever seen before, because this is the dumbest shit the tech industry has ever ever done.

AI data centers are nothing like fiber because there are very few actual use cases for these GPUs outside of AI, and none of them are remotely hyper scale revenue drivers.

As I discussed a month or so ago, data center development accounted for more of America's GDP growth than all consumers spending combined in the first half of.

Twenty twenty five.

And there really isn't any demand for AI in general, let alone at the scale that these hundreds of billions of dollars are being sunk into.

The conservative estimate of capital expenditures related to data centers is around four hundred billion dollars, but given the fifty billion dollar in a quarter in private equity invested, I'm going to guess it breaks half a trillion, all to build capacity for an industry yet to prove itself.

And this whole in video OpenAI one hundred billion dollar funding news should only fill you full of dread.

But also it isn't fucking finalized.

Stop reporting as if it's done, it's fucking anyway good.

According to CNBC and I quote the initial ten billion dollar tranch is locked in at a five hundred billion dollar valuation and expected to close within a month or so once the transaction has been finalized, with successive ten billion dollar rounds planned, each to be priced at the company's then current valuation.

Is new capacity comes online, what a horrible deal.

They can just raise whatever they can, just go back to video.

But let me just be clear.

Open Ai has written a lot of checks that neither it nor anyone else can cash, and for it to survive it needs to raise more than, honestly about five hundred billion dollars and maybe another four hundred billion dollars and other people paying for stuff.

It's astonishing, really, and no point is anyone asking how exactly open ai builds the data centers to fill for of the GPUs to get the rest of Nvidia's funding.

In fact, I'm genuinely shocked and a little disgusted by how poorly this story has been told.

Let's go point by point.

Ten billion dollars is not enough for open ai to build a data center.

The one point one to one point two Gigawa Gabiline Texas data center being built by Oracle and Cruiser for open Ai required fifteen billion dollars in debt, and that's not including the forty billion dollars of chips needed to power it.

Though a question whether all of those are going into Abilene or somewhere else, which you get to later.

Open Ai can also not afford to pay for everything it's promised.

Open Ai will burn they say one hundred and fifteen billion dollars in the next four years ago into the information, but I believe the company intentionally leaked those numbers before the announcement of their three hundred billion dollar deal with Oracle, as when you take into account the numbers share but the information which involved them burning forty seven billion dollars in twenty twenty eight a year when it open ai is meant to make seventy billion dollars in payments to compute to Oracle, not for twenty eight billion dollars to Microsoft or any other cost.

There's no space for the three hundred billion dollars to go, and there's actually another one hundred billion dollars they're promising for backup compute as well.

On top of all of this, open ai is still yet to convert to a for profit entity, and must do so by the end of twenty twenty five, or they'll lose twenty billion dollars in funding from SoftBank.

A few weeks ago, Microsoft and open Ai co published an announcement that said they'd signed a non binding memorandum of understanding for the next phase of their partnership, which the media quickly took to mean the deal was done.

No deal has been done.

This is an announcement of nothing.

On top of all of this, venture capital might run out at the current rate of investment in around six quarters, and open ai needs more investment than ever.

The Information recently published some worrying data from venture capitalist John Sokoda that a Today's clip the industry would run out of money in six quarters, adding that the money wouldn't run out until the end of twenty twenty eight if it wasn't for open.

Ai and Anthropic.

In a very real sense, open ai threatens the future of available capital for the tech industry.

Well, the good news is that they're going to make lots of money, right.

I mean, open Ai leaked that they'll make two hundred billion dollars in four years time.

I mean, if you're concussed, I can see how you believe that.

Let's go, I'm going to read you a bunch of numbers.

I know it's kind of going to be annoying to hear this.

For the next thirty second, I'm going to just throw figures at you, but pay attention because it's important to really us how insane this is.

So.

In twenty twenty five, open ai projects to make thirteen billion dollars and have free cash flow of negative nine billion dollars.

In twenty twenty six, open ai will make twenty nine billion dollars or thirty billion dollars, but have free cash flow of negative seventeen billion.

In twenty twenty seven, open ai will make sixty billion dollars but have negative cash flow of negative thirty five billion dollars.

And in twenty twenty eight, open ai will make one hundred billion dollars but have free cash flow of negative forty seven billion dollars.

In twenty twenty nine, open ai will make one hundred and forty five billion dollars but a free cash flow of negative eight billion dollars.

Somehow, I just want to reiterate there open AI's projection.

See it reduce its negative cash flow by thirty nine billion dollars or one and a half times three m's revenue from the last financial year in a single year, while also increasing their revenue by a similar amount, give or take a few billion.

Who's counting, certainly not Sarah Fryer, the CFO of open Ai.

It's also fucking stupid.

But don't worry.

I know, I know some of you have been worried.

You see big strong men with tears.

Now is going to be saying cirsa open Ai.

They're not gonna They're going to have enough money.

They're gonna die.

But don't worry.

In twenty thirty, open ai will make two hundred billion dollars and somehow have positive free cash flow of thirty eight billion dollars.

It's just that easy.

I teach you this in business school.

It's just that easy.

How they're gonna make it.

They're gonna make it.

They'll be fine.

Open ai is current reported burn is one hundred and fifteen billion dollars through twenty thirty, which means there's no way that these projections that were leaked included three hundred billion dollars in compute costs.

Even when you factor in the revenue, there's no space in the projections to absorb the Oracle money, and from what I can tell, by twenty twenty nine, open AI will burned up have burned upwards of two hundred ninety billion dollars, assuming it suffves that long, which I do not believe it will.

Don't worry though, open ai is about to make some crazy money.

I say in no way being totally sarcastic.

I'm gonna now read you some of the projections that CFO Sarah Fryer signed off on.

This is a professional chief financial officer.

Again, more numbers, but pay attention, Pay attention.

This is I want to give you, because these are numbers you just heard, but I want to give you some comparison points.

So in twenty twenty six, open AI will make, according to the projections, or these are the projections, thirty billion dollars in revenue, or just under thirty the thirty four billion dollars that Salesforce made in twenty twenty four.

In twenty twenty seven, open AI will allegedly make sixty billion dollars or two point six billion, more than the fifty seven point four billion dollars the Oracle made in its fiscal year twenty twenty five, or eight point four billion dollars more than Broadcom made in twenty twenty four.

In twenty twenty eight, this is crazy.

Open ai will make one hundred billion dollars two point three billion dollars more than Tesla made in twenty twenty four, or eleven point eleven point sixty six billion dollars more than TSMC, the single largest chip manufacturer in the world.

Made in twenty twenty four.

In twenty twenty nine, things get crazier because open ai will then make one hundred and fifty four billion dollars or fourteen point five billion dollars more than the one hundred and thirty point five billion dollars that in Video made and its fiscal year twenty twenty five.

But in twenty thirty, this is when they really blow the doors off.

They will make two hundred billion dollars or thirty five point five billion dollars in the one hundred and sixty four point five billion that Meta made in twenty twenty four.

Just so we are clear, open ai intends to ten exits revenue in the space of four years, selling software and access to its models in an industry with about sixty billion dollars of revenue.

In twenty twenty five, How will it do this?

Open ai does not say.

I don't know open ai CFO Sarah Fryer, but I do know that signing off on these numbers is at the very least ethically questionable.

But putting aside the ridiculousness of open AI's deals or its funding requirements, Fryar has wilfully allowed Samulman and open ai to state goals that defy reality or good sense, all to take advantage of investors and public markets that have completely lost the plot.

I'm actually you know what, I'm actually going to be blunter.

Open ai has signed multiple different deals and contracts for amounts it cannot afford to pay that it cannot hope to raise the money to pay for that defy the amounts of venture capital and private capital available, or to sustain a company that will burn half a trillion dollars in the next four years based on their own expenditures, and they have no path of the profitability of any kind.

But what about that Invidia deal?

And one hundred billion dollars is a lot of money, right, it is?

But the announcement is bullshit.

I know you may have read otherwise, but in Vidia didn't give open Ai a hundred billion dollars.

In fact, ninety billion dollars of that is contingent on open Ai building roughly one hundred and twenty five billion dollars worth of data centers with two hundred billion dollars worth of GPUs inside them.

And those data centers will have to be built faster than anyone could possibly build something of that scale.

And there's no evidence that open ai knows where or when these facilities will.

Be built or who will build them.

Important detail as well, in Vidia's data centers have nothing to do with stargate.

So when you read that open ai has seven gigawatts of stargate whatever, it doesn't exist.

Who cares?

That's nothing to do with Nvidia.

Oracle is not building these data centers.

The ten gigawatts that they need to build with video are something completely separate.

But you know what, let's take a step back with something really simple.

Data centers take forever to build.

As I've said previously, based on current reports, it's taking Oracle and Cruiser around two point five.

Years per giga.

What of data circumpans city and nowhere in these reports there's one reporter take a fucking second to say, hey, what data centers are you talking about?

Hey, didn't Sam alm.

And say back in July he was building ten gigawats of data center capacity with Oracle.

But wait now Oracle and open Ai have done another announcement that says they're only doing seven gigawats, but they already had a schedule on ten gigawatts.

Like I said, totally different ten gigawats to the one within video.

But you know what, got a few hundred billion dollars of data centers.

Now you're breaking real money anyway.

I cannot be clear enough how unlikely it is that the first giga what of in video systems will be deployed in the second half of twenty twenty six, as in Video has stated with their deal with open Ai.

And that's as if the land has been bought and got permits and the construction has started.

None of this has happened.

But you know, let's get really specific on costs.

Kruso's one point two gigawatts of compute for open Ai is a fifteen billion dollar joint venture, which means a gigawat of compute runs about twelve point five billion dollars worth of construction, Abilene's eight buildings are meant to hold fifty thousand in video GB two hundred GPUs and their associated networking infrastructure.

So let's say a Gigawa is around three hundred and thirty three thousand Blackwell GPUs, even though the GB two hundreds are technically two of them put together.

Though this math is a little funky due to in video promising to install its new Reuben GPUs in these theoretical data centers.

That means these data centers will require a little under two hundred billion.

Dollars worth of GPUs.

By my maths, that's about three hundred and twenty five billion dollars, but in videos saying it could be half a trillion.

But you know, who gives a shit, right, numbers don't matter.

You've got Jensen Wong telling CNBC that one giga what costs fifty sixty billion dollars.

You've got Altman claiming the same thing to Bloomberg.

But my mass is something completely fucking different, But no one seems.

To want to bother.

You know.

It's only like the places I'm quoting are leading business outlets with teams of thousands of people, with incredible infrastructure where they could sit down and say, well, you know it costs this much to build stargate ABERI, and why don't we work out actually what this costs?

No, no, no, just eat the info slop yum yum yum.

You know it doesn't exhaust me.

It doesn't make me cynical and frustrated with people who could do a good job.

Indeed, I've seen them do a good job, but they just seem to not want to do one with this, and it genuinely bothers me on a day to day basis.

Okay, I realize I'm just ranting at this point, but I'm gonna be honest.

I'm just I'm so tired of this.

As a reminder as well, Open Eyes agreed to spend three hundred billion dollars on compute with Oracle.

But at this point, as you can tell, numbers basically don't have meaning.

Numbers have stopped meaning anything.

If you believe these numbers, you're a fantasist or a liar, or you just don't want to think about them too much, because when you think about them, you start to realize how unrealistic it is.

And even if you remain steadfast in your belief of the transformative potential of large language models.

Eventually, there comes a point where reality must prevail and you accept that we're in a bubble, whether you like it or not.

What we're witnessing is one of the most egregious wastes of capital in history, sold by career charlatans, with their reputations laundered by a tech and business media afraid to criticize the powerful an analyst that don't seem to want to tell their investors the truth.

There are no historic comparisons here.

Even Britain's abominable eighteen hundreds railway bubble, which absorbed half of the country's national income, created valuable infrastructure for trains, a vehicle that can move people to and from places.

So the train doesn't randomly just go backwards when you make it go forwards.

It doesn't become a bus or a dog at random.

It doesn't hallucinate doors that open and close at random.

Trains work and GPUs are not trains, nor are they cars or even CPUs, not adaptable to many other kinds of work, nor are they the infrastructure of the future of tech, because they're already quite old and with everybody focused on buying them, you'd absolutely see one other use case by now that actually mattered.

GPUs are expensive, power hungry, environmentally destructive, and require their own kinds of cooling and server infrastructure, making every GPU data center an environmental and fiscal bubble onto themselves.

And whereas the Victorian train and infrastructure still exists in the UK, though it has been upgraded over the years, a GPU has a limited useful lifespan.

These are cards that can and will break after a period of extended usage, whether that period is five years or later, though I hear it's one to three, and they'll inevitably be superseded by something better and more powerful, meaning that the resale value of that GPU will only go down with a price depreciation.

That's the kin to a new car, and then a used car, and then a car that you kick the door over every so often.

I am telling you, as I have been telling you for years, again and again and again, that the demand is not there for generative AI, and the demand is never ever arriving.

The only reason anyone humors any of this crap is the endless hoarding of GPUs to build capacity for a revolution.

That will never arrive.

Well, that and open Ai, a company that's built and sold on lies about chat GPT's capabilities.

Chat GPT's popularity in open hunger for endless amounts of compute have created the illusion of demand due to the sheer amount of capacity required to keep their services operational.

Also that they can burn around eight billion dollars or more in twenty twenty five and hundreds of billions of dollars more by twenty thirty if they make him, which they won't.

The Nvidia dealers are fast an obvious attempt by the largest company on the American stock market to prop up the one significant revenue generator in the entire industry, knowing that time is running out for it to create new avenues for eternal growth.

I'd argue that Nvidia's deal also shows the complete content that these companies have for the media.

There are no details about how this deal works beyond the initial ten billion dollars.

There's no land purchase, no data center construction started, yet the media slurps it down without a second thought.

I am but one man, and I'm fucking peculiar.

I did not learn financial analysis in school, but I appear to be one of the few people doing even the most basic analysis of these deals.

And while I'm having a great time doing so, I'm are so extremely frustrated about how little effort is being put into praying apart these deals by other people.

I realize how ridiculous all that this sounds.

I get it.

There's so much money being promised, that so many people market rallies built off the back of these massive deals, and I get that the assumption that this is that this much money can't be wrong, that this many people wouldn't just say stuff without intending to follow through, or without considering whether their company could afford it.

I know it's hard to conceive that these hundreds of billions of dollars could be invested in something for no apparent reason, but it's happening, right goddamn now, in front of your eyes.

And I am going to be merciless on anyone who attempts to write, how could we possibly have seen this coming?

Generator AI has never been reliable, has always been unprofitable, and has always been unsustainable.

And I've been saying so since at least February twenty twenty four.

These economics have never made sense.

Something I've said repeatedly since April twenty twenty four, and when I wrote how does open Ai Survive in July twenty twenty four, I had multiple people suggest I was being an alarmist.

Here's some alarmism for you.

The longer it takes for open ai to die, the more damage it will cause once it does.

As I talked about earlier in this series, venture capital could run out in six quarters, with investor and research of John Socoda estimating that there will be only around one hundred and sixty four billion dollars of dry powder, which is available capital, by the way, in USVC firms, by the end of twenty twenty five.

In July, the French Tech journal reported using Pitchbook DAYA, the global venture capital deal activity reached its lowest first half total since twenty eighteen, with one hundred and thirty nine point four billion dollars in deal value in the first half of twenty twenty five, down from one hundred and eighty three point four billion in the first half of twenty twenty four, meaning that any further expansion or demands for venge capital from open ai will likely sap dwindling.

Funds available for other startups.

Things get worse when you narrow things to the US venture capital In a piece from April Erstin Young report, the VC backed in in US companies say eighty billion dollars in Q one twenty twenty five, but one forty billion dollar deal account for half of the investment.

Open Ai is forty billion.

Dollar deal, of which only ten billion dollar has actually closed, and that didn't happen until fucking June.

Without the imaginary money from open Ai, US venture capital would have declined by thirty six percent.

I should also add another eight point three billion dollars was added on the top of that, but still that's less than forty dollars, folks.

The longer the open Ai survives, the longer it will sap the remaining billions from the tech ecosystem, and I expect its tendrils to extend to private credit soon too.

The three hundred and twenty five billion dollars it needs just to fulfill its Nvidia contract, albeit over four years, is an egregious sum that I believe exceeds the available private capital in the world.

And I went and actually looked, assuming that all of this capital is currently available, the top ten private equity films in the world have around four hundred and seventy seven billion dollars of available capital.

A reminder, four hundred and seventy seven billion dollars is a lot less than open AI's total commitments over the next few years.

In fact, I put a premium newsletter out just before recording this, so I didn't totally update the script.

But open ai needs a trillion dollars.

They need about five hundred billion for operations and about four hundred and fifty billion for all the data centers they promised and the GPUs in them.

It's not really good, it's not good at all.

But if we include the cash at hand at the biggest investment banks, this brings us up to By the way, if we as seen that all of these funds are available about five hundred and sixty two billion dollars in capital and one hundred and sixty four billion dollars a venture capital in the US to spend, and that's all meant to go in more places than just open AI, that's not enough.

If we combind all the available private equity firms in the top ten and all of the available USVC, that's not enough to pay for all the bills that the open aiy has said, it's we're in a fucking bubble man.

Come on, sure, I also get that there's more than ten private equity firms and there's more venture money in that they could raise more money from lpiece, but what's the left exactly in our one hundred and fifty two hundred and three hundred billion.

They need that, they need all of that.

Hand that over to Clammy Sami right now.

Clammy needs to give that money to Jensen.

Jensen need money.

Number go up, you asshole, give money to Jensen Wong.

Now you see open ai needs to buy those GPUs, and it needs to build those data centers, and it needs to pay it's thousands of staff and marketing and sales costs too well.

Open Ai likely wouldn't be the ones raising the money for the data centers, and honestly, I'm not sure who would.

At this point, somebody is going to need to build twenty fucking gigawatts of data centers if we're going to believe Oracle and Nvidia.

You may argue that venture funds and private equity funds can raise more, and you're right, but at this point, there have been few meaningful acquisitions of AI companies and zero exits from the billions of dollars put into data centers.

How are they meant to justify doing this other than me need money?

Please?

Even open aims it's in its own announcement about new stargate sites that this will be a four hundred billion dollar investment over three years.

Where the fuck's the money coming from?

Is open ai really going to absorb massive junks of all available private credit and venture capital and capex from major tech companies.

For the next few years?

And oh my fucking god, Oh my god, stop saying the US government will bail this out.

I'm tired of hearing it.

I get the things as scary right now.

I'm scared too, We're all fucking scared.

But I get jumping to doomerism.

But stop.

The US government actually really can't afford to do this.

Open AI needs about.

A trillion dollars in the next four years.

And while the US government has spent equivalent sums in the past to support private businesses, there's about four hundred and forty billion dollars dispersed during the Great Recessions tart program, and that was when the Treasury brought toxic assets from investment banks to stop them from imploding.

Like Layman Brothers that one.

It's hard to imagine any case where open ai is seen as vital to the global financial system and the economic health of the US as the actual banking system.

And even if they were, that's more money than they can easily mobilize, even for the US government.

And sure, we spent around a trillion dollars if we're being specific, nine hundred and fifty three billion dollars on the paycheck Protection program during the COVID era.

That was to keep people employed at a time when the economy outside of Zoom and Walmart had, for all intents and purposes, ceased to exist.

There was an urgency that doesn't apply here.

If open ai goes tits up, soft Bank, Dragonnaer and a few others lose a bit of money.

Nothing new there, and Sacha Nadella has to explain why he spent tens of billions, actually hundreds of billions of dollars on data centers fills with GPUs.

But otherwise there's you can't really bail this out.

Are we going to nationalize in video?

Are we going to create a top fund just for open ai?

If you really believe that will happen.

I really must put a smile on your face.

It can't.

Even under the most crony capitalism scenario.

This is more money than actually really exists in the world.

And yes, while there will be and have been already disastrous economic consequences, they won't be as systematically catastrophic as that of a pandemic or a global financial crisis.

To be clear, It'll be bad, but not as bad.

And there's also the problem of a moral hazard.

If the government steps in, what's the stop big tech chasing its next frootless rainbow, and of course the optics.

If people resented bailing out the banks after they acted like Gambler's and lost, how will they feel bailing out fucking Sam Altman and Jensen Huang.

Seriously, no matter when you've got a conservative or Democrat government, this is not going to be an easy thing to sell.

It's going to be hard to get the consensus, and indeed every tech company will be kind of pissed.

I think that you miss you underestimate how upset companies that have died would be, and indeed companies outside of tech two this would be more than a scandal it would be genuinely bad to do, even for the silliest government in the world.

I don't think it's happening, and even if they try, there's not enough money.

Breathe, they can't get you.

You're doing a podcast.

Look, this has been a slog and I appreciate you sticking with me this long, but the significance of the bubble requires this depth.

There's little demand, little real money, and little reason to continue, and the sheer lack of responsibility, along with the willingness to kneel before the powerful, feels me full of angry bio.

I understand many journalists are not in a position where they can just write this shit sounds stupid, but we've entered a deeply stupid era, and by continuing to perpetuate the myth of AI, the media guarantees that retail investors and regular people's four O one case will suffer.

It is now inevitable that this bubble bursts.

Deutsche Bank has said that the AI boom is unsustainable outside of tech spending remaining parabolic, which it says is highly unlikely, and Bain Capital has said that two trillion in new revenue is needed to fund AI scaling, and even that math is completely fucked as it talks about AI related savings, and I quote even if companies in the US shifted all of their on premises, it budgets the cloud and reinvested the savings from applying AI in sales, marketing, customs support, and r D into capital spending on new AI data centers, the amount would still fall short of revenue, the revenue needed to fund the full investment as AI's compute demands grow more than twice the rate of Moore's law.

Ban notes.

Even when stared in the face by a ridiculous idea two trillion dollars of new revenue in a global software market and this is all software that's expected to be around eight hundred and seventeen billion dollars in twenty twenty five, Bain still ininks out some nonsense about the savings from applying AI.

Yet another myth perpetuated.

I seem to plicate the fucking moron sinking billions into this Every single vibe Coding is the future, the power of AI and AI job lot story written perpetuates a myth that will only lead to more regular people getting hurt.

When the bubble bursts.

Every article written about open AI or in video or oracle that does not explicitly state that the money doesn't exist, that the revenues that are impossible, that one of the companies involved burns billions of dollars and has no path to profitability is an act of irresponsibility, and irresponsible make belief and mythos.

Look, I'm nobody, I'm not a financier, I'm not anybody special.

I write a lot, I read a lot, and can do the most basic maths in the world.

I'm not trying to be anything other than myself, nor do I have an agenda other than the fact that I like doing this and I hate how.

This story is being told.

I never expected my newsletter to get big, nor did I expect this podcast, nor did I expect to be in the Financial Times.

But here I am, and I'm working my ass off, and I am pissed off at where this has got to.

I'm tired that things remain honestly mythical, that we still see as things get more and more ridiculous, that the headlines get more ridiculous too, that there's questioning and people are saying, oh, the narrative is shifting, sure, but they're still repeating increasingly dumb shit.

And I also believe that the way to stop this happening again is to have a thorough and well sourced explanation of everything that happens, ripping down the narratives as they're spun, and making it clear who benefits from them and how on why they're choosing to do so.

When things collapse, we need to be clear about how many times people chose to look the other way or to find good faith ways to interpret bad faith announcements and leaks.

So how could we have seen this coming?

I don't know, did anybody.

Try to fucking look?

Thank you for listening to Better Offline.

The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song is Matasowski.

You can check out more of his music and audio projects at Mattasowski dot com, m A T T O.

S O W s ki dot com.

You can email me at easy at Better offline dot com, or visit Better Offline dot com to find more podcast links and of course my newsletter.

I also really recommend you go to chat dot Where's youreaed dot at to visit the discord and go to our slash Better off Line to check out our reddit thank you so much for listening.

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