Episode Description
⚖️ Budget Boost: A Rare Win for Taxpayers 🇿🇦💰
This week kicked off with a surprisingly investor-friendly South African budget — and markets initially loved it.
Key Changes:
- 📈 CGT annual exclusion: R40,000 → R50,000
- 🏠 Primary residence CGT exclusion: R2m → R3m
- 💼 Retirement contribution limit: R350k → R430k (or 27.5%)
- 🌍 Offshore SDA allowance: Doubled to R2m
- 🎁 Donations tax exemption: R100k → R150k
- 🧾 Tax-free savings annual limit: R36,000 → R46,000
- 🏢 VAT registration threshold: R1m → R2.3m
After years of "tax by stealth," this budget offered real relief — especially for investors and small businesses.
💡 Lump Sum vs Monthly Tax-Free?
Data from NinetyOne & Morningstar suggests:
- ✅ Lump sum at the start of the tax year typically outperforms.
- 📊 But in volatile markets, patience may offer better entry points.
Simon has funded his tax-free — but hasn't deployed it yet 👀
💻 Dell Delivers 🚀
Strong results from Dell Technologies sent the share price soaring ~20%.
- Entry around $118
- Now trading near $153
- AI infrastructure demand driving upside
- Big capex spend from hyperscalers boosting the thesis
US markets don't play gently — they reprice fast and aggressively.
🌍 Oil Shock: War & Market Volatility 🛢️🔥
The geopolitical narrative changed dramatically.
Escalating conflict involving Iran has rattled global markets — with oil at the center.
Key Developments:
- ⚠️ Reports of navigation threats in the Strait of Hormuz
- 🚢 Tankers rerouting / suspending activity
- 🛢️ Brent crude jumped from $72 → $83+
- 💸 Rand weakened to 16.36
- 📉 JSE down over 4%
About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait. Any prolonged disruption:
- 🚗 Pushes fuel prices higher
- 📈 Risks inflation spikes
- 🏦 Puts rate cuts at risk (MPC meeting: 26 March)
- 🌍 Raises global recession concerns
Possible Scenarios:
- Quick de-escalation → Oil settles $75–$80
- Prolonged tension → Oil $90+
- Full closure → Brent $100+, global recession risk
South Africa imports ~70% of its crude — so oil + rand = inflation risk.
📌 Key message: Don't panic. Stay long-term focused.
🚗 Vehicle Sales: Still Surging 🚙📊
February 2026 vehicle sales surprised again:
- 🚘 Total sales: 53,000 (vs ~48,000 last year)
- 📈 Local sales up 11%
- 📉 Exports down 28%
- 📊 Year-to-date sales up nearly 10%
Strong growth continues — particularly from Chinese brands gaining market share.
Despite geopolitical risk, domestic demand remains resilient.
🤖 AI + Investing: Deep-Dive into SaaS 📈
Simon continues experimenting with AI tools like Claude & Perplexity for fundamental research.
SaaS Sell-Off = Opportunity?
Basket explored:
- Salesforce
- Adobe
- Intuit
- ServiceNow
- Workday
- Datadog
Preferred picks:
✅ Salesforce
✅ Adobe
✅ Intuit
AI-generated DCF models suggest potential upside between 40–75% (based on last week's pricing).
Key insight:
Replacing enterprise software isn't about code — it's about retraining millions of users.
🎯 Final Thoughts
Markets are volatile.
War introduces uncertainty.
Oil is the key risk variable.
But:
- 🧠 Stay rational
- ⏳ Stay long term
- 💰 Deploy capital thoughtfully
- 🚫 Don't panic
If you've got time on your side — don't stress your portfolio.
See you next week 👋