Episode Description
📅 11 March 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown
Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT
🧭 Market Mood: Chaos Means Doing Nothing
With geopolitical tensions and wild commodity moves, markets are extremely uncertain.
Simon's strategy right now?
🧘 Do nothing.
Panic trading rarely helps. In times of chaos, sometimes the best move is to step back, ignore the noise, and let events unfold.
🛢️ Oil Shock: From $60 to $120
Oil has been incredibly volatile.
📊 Recent moves
- Early January: ~$60
- Monday spike: ~$120
- Tuesday: briefly below $90
- Current level: ~$91
That still means oil is about 50% higher year-to-date.
The big issue remains disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
🚢 Shipping traffic
- Normal flow: ~20 million barrels/day
- Last Wednesday: 0 barrels
- Monday: ~20% of normal
Oil supply is slowly returning, but the situation remains fragile.
⛽ What This Means for South Africa
Higher oil prices feed directly into local fuel prices.
💸 Earlier estimates suggested:
- Petrol: +R5.40
- Diesel: +R10
After oil pulled back slightly:
- Petrol increase may be ~R3
- Diesel ~R5
Still extremely painful for the economy.
📈 Inflation & Interest Rates
Oil shocks ripple through inflation.
📊 Rule of thumb:
Every $10 increase in oil adds ~0.4% to global inflation.
With oil roughly $30 higher, that could mean:
➡️ ~1.2% extra global inflation
For South Africa, that pushes inflation above 4% again.
🏦 Rate Cuts Are Off the Table
Upcoming meetings:
- 🇺🇸 Fed decision: 18 March
- 🇿🇦 SARB MPC: 26 March
Previously expected: rate cuts.
Now?
❌ Cuts unlikely
Central banks will wait to see if second-round inflation effects emerge, things like higher transport and food costs.
⚔️ The War Question
Markets are asking one thing:
How long does this conflict last?
Current signals:
- Iran says it won't capitulate
- US and Israel still active
- UAE attacks have slowed
One possible constraint: missile inventories.
Iran's cheaper drones and missiles are being intercepted by extremely expensive defence systems.
At some point, stocks run out.
🛢️ G7 Emergency Oil Plan
The G7 strategic reserves may be tapped.
📦 Strategic reserves: ~1.2 billion barrels
Possible release:
➡️ 300–400 million barrels
This could cover roughly 15–20 days of supply shortages caused by Hormuz disruptions.
That would buy time while infrastructure is repaired.
📉 Best vs Worst Oil Scenarios
Best Case
✔ Conflict ends within weeks
✔ Strategic reserves released
✔ Oil stabilises in the $80s
Worst Case
🔥 War escalates
🔥 Shipping disruptions persist
🔥 Oil spikes to $150–$200
At those levels, we start seeing demand destruction — people simply use less energy.
🤖 New Structured Product: AI & Big Data Auto Call
Standard Bank has launched a new structured product.
📊 AI & Big Data Auto Call
Key features:
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📅 Term: Up to 5 years
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📥 Minimum investment: R25,000
🧠 Index Constituents
The product tracks the Solactive AI & Big Data Index.
Top holdings include:
- Nvidia
- Palantir
- Snowflake
- AMD
- Broadcom
- SoundHound AI
- Kingsoft Cloud
- BigBear.ai
- DataVault
- Zenitech
Total: 30 companies in the index.
🇿🇦 SA GDP: Small Steps Forward
South Africa released Q4 GDP.
📊 Q4 2025: +0.4%
Full-year growth:
- 2024: 0.5%
- 2025: 1.1%
Not amazing, but improving.
Forecast for 2026:
📈 1.6% – 1.8%
If that happens, SA could finally see GDP growth above population growth, meaning real gains in wealth per person.
🎬 Paramount Buying Warner Bros (Again…)
The media industry continues consolidating.
Deal overview:
💰 Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros Discovery
📦 Price: ~$100 billion
Netflix initially pursued the deal but walked away.
💵 Result:
- Netflix collected a $2.8B break fee
- Its stock jumped ~15%
🇨🇳 Tencent Joins the Deal
New twist:
Tencent plans to invest several hundred million dollars in the acquisition.
For South African investors:
Satrix 40 → Naspers → Prosus → Tencent → Paramount.
Yes… it's complicated.
🎥 Why Simon Thinks This Is a Bad Idea
The concerns:
📉 Traditional media is declining
🤖 Studios betting on AI-generated content
🏛️ Politics may influence the deal
Warner Bros also has a long history of failed mega-mergers, including the infamous AOL–Time Warner disaster.
Simon's take:
This deal will likely be unwound later and probably at a lower price.
🕒 Market Hours Change
The US switched to daylight savings.
New trading times for South Africa:
📈 US markets open at 15:30 (was 16:30)
✈️ Personal Note
Simon is heading to Durban this weekend for his nephew's 18th birthday.
Time flies.
✔ Key Takeaway
Markets right now are being driven by geopolitics and energy prices.
Until the oil situation stabilises, central banks, and investors, are likely to remain cautious.