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The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) established substantial tax credits for wind and solar power. Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) eliminated those tax credits. How much damage did that do to the overall trajectory of clean energy in the post-Trump world? A new research commentary argues that the damage was less than many had feared and that the road forward for clean energy is less about restoring those credits than about easing the permitting and interconnection constraints inhibiting renewable energy. Today I talk with author Lily Bermel about the modeling her commentary is based on and the somewhat controversial conclusions she draws from it.

Chapters:

00:00 The IRA, the OBBBA, and the case for optimism

03:25 OBBBA - Why Bermel ran the analysis

05:50 The headline numbers: 74, 71, 67

08:07 Decomposing clean: solar and batteries hold, wind takes the hit

12:14 The lag analysis, and the 'glass half full' perspective

15:27 2.8 gigatons, and losses you can't get back

18:01 The third scenario, and Trump I versus Trump II

21:49 What the model leaves out: manufacturing, LPO, loans

23:07 Interior's permitting campaign against wind and solar

27:22 The demand surge and behind-the-meter gas

32:15 Nuclear restarts, geothermal, and clean firm

35:31 Booms, busts, and the electrification wave

42:22Transmission, interconnection, and the ceiling

46:41 Tax credits versus permitting reform

51:46 Durability, polarization, and preemptive surrender

60:01 Can enough storage make renewables firm?

66:48 Grid utilization versus building new grid

70:52 Final reflections: 2021, and what Bermel would do with a trifecta