Tomasz Tunguz is the Founder and General Partner of Theory Ventures.

We talk about today’s “all out sprint” in AI, Anthropic’s strategy, the three layers of AI business models, how AI compares to prior technologies, where to invest in AI today, and what Theory looks for in new investments.

Thank you to Numeral, Flex, and Amplitude for supporting this episode

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Timestamps:

(0:42) The “all out sprint” in AI today

(1:40) Why GPU prices are up 116% in six weeks

(6:34) AI infra end-state: “We’ll over build”

(9:12) Tokenmaxxing, and why AI needs to get more efficient

(15:48) AI models will resemble pharma more than software

(19:52) Why Anthropic still trades at a discount

(25:42) Anthropic’s strategy: commoditize the compliments

(30:29) Why OpenClaw is so strategic for OpenAI

(34:08) The three layers of AI business models

(38:18) Where to invest in AI today

(45:49) Who will survive SaaSpocalypse?

(52:15) Comparing AI’s impact to historical technology cycles

(57:34) How new technology historically impacts jobs

(1:05:58) Where AI is underrated today

(1:10:41) How people are actually buying AI products

(1:14:06) Why Theory’s investing in ads, inference, and email

(1:16:24) 2026 IPO pipeline, how VC has changed over 20 years

(1:20:56) What Theory looks for in new investments

(1:22:32) Starting Theory Ventures in 2022

(1:25:39) Running a monte carlo analysis to determine portfolio construction

(1:27:54) Tomasz personal AI projects

Referenced

Theory Ventures: https://theoryvc.com/

Tomasz Blog: https://tomtunguz.com/

Follow Tomasz

Twitter: https://x.com/ttunguz

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomasztunguz

Follow Turner

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak

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