In this episode, Luke Gromen explains why U.S. fiscal math is breaking down, why the Fed is being forced toward monetization, and why real assets are quietly reasserting themselves as paper systems weaken. We discuss the growing divide between the financial world and the physical world, China’s long-term commodity strategy, AI-driven labor disruption, and what these shifts mean for bitcoin, gold, and institutional capital.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction and setting the macro context

00:50 - Trump, the Fed, and why deficit monetization is unavoidable

03:20 - Why U.S. fiscal math is already broken

06:40 - The split between the paper economy and the physical world

09:10 - How China traded dollars for commodities and leverage

12:40 - Why the dollar no longer guarantees access to real resources

13:55 - Supreme Court tariffs and whether policy choices still matter

15:10 - Why markets remain complacent despite rising global risk

18:05 - Where real stress is showing up beneath the surface

21:15 - AI as a productivity shock to white-collar employment

24:00 - Lessons from China joining the WTO and job displacement

26:45 - Political consequences of economic dislocation

29:10 - Deflationary crash versus inflationary reset scenarios

32:50 - Why execution and communication determine outcomes

34:40 - Why Luke reduced his bitcoin exposure

37:05 - Bitcoin versus gold and changing macro relationships

40:40 - Institutional behavior and long-term technical signals

44:00 - What would bring Luke back into bitcoin

48:15 - How low bitcoin could fall in a deflationary shock

52:35 - Unknown risks and why position sizing matters

56:20 - Can bitcoin surpass gold’s total market value