In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says the US has no vision of victory in Iran — like Afghanistan and Vietnam, we went in without knowing what winning looks like and are now backing down without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration went from threatening to destroy Iranian civilization to total capitulation in weeks, leaving the Saudis and Israelis furious. Meanwhile Iran is extorting $1 per barrel in yuan or bitcoin to let ships through, China is standing behind the curtain in Pakistan pulling the strings, and even if the ceasefire holds it could take a year before energy and byproduct flows normalize. On housing, Whalen calls the peak — Q1 2026 was probably it — and says the answer to what happens to home prices is "nada to lower," with Houston and Clearwater already seeing serious erosion and the broader market heading for years of sideways action. Rising energy prices mean the Fed is forced to wait on cuts, making 2026 a very different year than 2025. His portfolio is defensive — income assets, Annaly, and gold is his only high-conviction trade. He bought more gold the morning of the recording and says both gold and silver remain asymmetric bull trades given supply constraints and Asia's dominance as the new price setter for precious metals.

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Links:    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira832

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction & kicking off with this week's Wrap

0:52 - Trump's "total capitulation" on Iran — from threatening to destroy Iranian civilization to ceasefire

2:10 - The winners & losers

5:00 - The China-US story — why should Beijing help Trump?

6:20 - The dollar narrative — why Whalen is skeptical of the "end of the dollar" story

7:40 - Gold still outperforming US stocks over the past 12 months

8:10 - Whalen bought gold this morning — still his only high conviction trade

10:18 - China's Treasury holdings — trading securities for cash deposits, not dumping dollars

11:20 - Yuan and Bitcoin

14:38 - Inflation and no rate cut at the April FOMC

15:32 - 2026 is going to be a very different year than 2025

16:10 - Whalen's portfolio right now — risk off, income generating, precious metals

16:45 - Liquidated Chevron and Williams

17:48 - Gold and silver as asymmetrical bull trades — monetary vs commercial case

19:31 - The mortgage roundtable in Washington — volumes are going to fall

20:00 - MBA projects 0.6% home price growth — flat to slightly down

23:39 - "Do you think we've seen a peak in home prices?" — "Yes"

24:43 - Misery on the eights — prolonged period of low or no price appreciation

26:18 - Why Whalen changed his view — supply still hasn't caught up 28:00 - Viewer Mail: Oil producer stocks — should you take profits?

29:20 - Viewer Mail: Tokenization of stocks and ETFs

32:05 - What Whalen is watching next week