It’s uncertain whether the ceasefire Donald Trump brokered with Iran will hold after Israel launched a massive barrage of airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon leading Tehran to reclose the Strait of Hormuz. 

US vice president JD Vance, who is leading the US delegation to Islamabad in Pakistan, has acknowledged that the ceasefire is “fragile”. 

So is there any chance it could lead to a last peace? Is this a moment where a global economic crisis was averted at the last minute, or just postponed? 

On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by defence and intelligence analyst Mark Urban and Channel 4 News Economics Editor Helia Ebrahimi.