Original air date: April 29, 2026

In today’s episode, economist Paul Krugman lays out an expansive case that Donald Trump holds a losing hand in the war with Iran. Krugman argues that Trump can’t seem to admit that the Strait of Hormuz problem has cornered him. Krugman also details why the situation could get worse, if Iran continues holding out and constraints on oil supply drive the global economy into recession. As Krugman puts it, this will keep getting uglier for Trump until he “swallows his pride” and accepts that he doesn’t hold the cards. This builds on the ⁠piece Krugman posted on his Substack⁠ arguing that time is on Iran’s side. Gas prices just ⁠hit a new high⁠, and Republicans ⁠quietly fear⁠ their midterm prospects are darkening due to what Trump has unleashed. Krugman takes us through these dynamics, notes that Trump is obsessing over his ballroom in search of a win, and explains why this all could tailspin further for the GOP.

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