New national polling shows a dramatic shift in voter sentiment toward Donald Trump, including a stunning eight point redo margin and approval ratings in the mid 30s.

In this episode, we break down the NBC News SurveyMonkey redo poll showing Kamala Harris leading Trump by eight points among voters asked how they would vote if the 2024 election were held again. We also examine Reuters Ipsos and AP NORC data placing Trump’s overall approval at 36 to 38 percent, including a sharp drop on immigration. Among key 2024 constituencies like men and Latino voters, cracks are beginning to show.

We discuss the emerging enthusiasm gap heading into the midterms, with 89 percent of Harris voters saying they plan to vote Democratic compared to 83 percent of Trump voters sticking with Republicans. That gap could matter in a close congressional fight. We also talk about real world voter frustration, from healthcare premium spikes to job insecurity and the broader economic squeeze many Americans are feeling.

If approval remains this low into November, history suggests serious danger for the president’s party. But polling momentum only matters if people show up.

Watch the full episode and decide for yourself what these numbers really mean for 2026 and beyond.

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00:00 Trump Polls and Redo Shock
Introduction and setup of new polling data showing a dramatic shift.

00:00:36 Eight Point Redo Margin Explained
NBC News SurveyMonkey poll shows Harris leading by eight in a redo scenario.

00:02:00 Enthusiasm Gap Emerging
89% of Harris voters vs 83% of Trump voters planning to vote in midterms.

00:02:33 Immigration Approval Drops
Reuters Ipsos data shows immigration approval falling to 38%.

00:03:32 Turnout Warning and Overconfidence Risk
Discussion of 2024 turnout failure and why momentum alone is not enough.

00:04:18 Historic 36% Approval Territory
AP NORC poll places Trump at 36%, lowest midterm approval territory in decades.

00:05:00 Economic and Healthcare Pressure
Personal impact of rising healthcare premiums and economic frustration.

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