Overconfidence and the Art of Knowing Yourself

April 9
59 mins

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Episode Description

What happens when your confidence outruns your competence? Brené and Adam start with freestyle skiing champ Eileen Gu’s extraordinary Olympic press conference and use it to explore metacognition—how to notice your thinking, question it, and change it on purpose. They dig into the Dunning–Kruger effect, calibration, journaling, and feedback, discuss why we’re so bad at estimating timelines, and consider how “I’ve got this” energy can quietly wreck projects, relationships, and learning. From pickleball and ping pong to therapy and team meetings, this episode is about building the inner game of better thinking without losing your nerve along the way.

You can find the Curiosity Shop on YouTube⁠ and Instagram⁠ (@thecuriosityshop).


Chapters:

0:00 - Introductions

3:45 - Eileen Gu’s Metacognition  

12:22 - What is Metacognition? 

25:10 - What is Dunning-Kruger?

38:14 - Time Estimation and The Planning Fallacy 

44:36 - Metacognition and Dunning-Kruger Final Thoughts 

58:17 - Wrap up


Shownotes:

I hate minimalism - Hank Green, TikTok

Strong Ground: The Lessons of Daring Leadership, the Tenacity of Paradox, and the Wisdom of the Human Spirit - Brené Brown, 2025, Book 

Metacognition and Cognitive Monitoring: A New Area of Cognitive-Developmental Inquiry - Flavell, 1979

Explaining the Dunning-Kruger effect and overcoming overconfidence with David Dunning - Adam Grant, 2024, Worklife with Adam Grant

Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know - Adam Grant, 2021, Book

Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures - Kahneman & Tversky, 1979, Office of Naval Research

Daniel Kahneman Doesn't Trust Your Intuition - Adam Grant, 2023,  Re:Thinking with Adam Grant 

The Story Rumble Process: A Guide for Groups and Teams - Brené Brown, Dare to Lead, 2018

The learning benefits of teaching: A retrieval practice hypothesis - Koh, 2018

Hidden Potential: The Science of Achieving Greater Things - Adam Grant, 2023, Book

Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments - Kruger & Dunning, 1999, Cornell University

The Inner Game of Tennis - The Classic Guide to the Mental Side of Peak Performance - Timothy Gallwey, 1974, Book


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