Chuck Todd opens with the Iran war back on and the rug pulled out from under the world economy once again — but his central argument is that this is now the biggest broken campaign promise in 40 years. He draws a crucial distinction between ordinary campaign lies and genuinely major broken promises: "build the wall" was a broken promise that didn't much hurt Trump, but "no new wars" was foundational to his appeal, and the Iran calamity is now actively damaging the economy and making everyday life harder for the voters who trusted him. He notes candidate Trump was actually right that an Iran war would be irresponsible, that securing anything would require a months- or years-long ground commitment Trump won't make, and that the president was so consumed with keeping his birthday celebration on schedule that he tried to time the war around it. Marco Rubio, as always, has vanished now that things are going badly. Todd flags the NATO meetings underway in Turkey (a complicated ally Trump only engages because he and Erdogan play by the same strongman rules), marvels that Trump remains inexplicably sympathetic to a Putin who has never been weaker, and warns that all of it is making Americans less safe. He then turns to the Maine Senate race, which has become a genuine debacle: Todd argues Graham Platner was caught in a clear lie to Democratic senators about Jenny Racicot — who has said publicly she believes Platner sexually assaulted her — and that Platner knew both what she believed and that she was talking to reporters. Todd is emphatic that the lies need to be called out, that leaning into misogyny is no way to win back working-class white men, and that progressives cannot let Trump set the bar for acceptable character. He frames the whole primary through the fighter-versus-winner divide, notes this could be the second high-profile Bernie-endorsed candidate to lose (raising the stakes for Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and underscoring how much harder it is for progressives to win statewide), and argues the progressive left urgently needs to get its house in order. Todd closes with two intriguing threads: the swirling rumors about Mitch McConnell's health and status (his seat is on the ballot in November, and Kentucky's legislature changed its vacancy-appointment law in a way that may violate the state constitution but has never been tested in court), and the escalating fight between the Trump administration and the Smithsonian — where Todd concedes the administration had a couple of fair critiques but argues that its core complaint, that the museum is "woke" for simply asking questions about history, amounts to demanding the Smithsonian swap one alleged ideology for an openly right-wing one, when the honest approach to contested history is simply to present the facts and let people interpret them. 

 

Then, legendary Democratic strategist Tad Devine — a senior adviser to Bernie Sanders' 2016 campaign and a veteran of multiple presidential campaigns — joins the Chuck Toddcast with a new book and a provocative thesis: the Democratic Party actively screwed Bernie Sanders, and in doing so screwed itself. Devine says he got angrier and angrier as he wrote the book, revisiting how Sanders couldn't get booked on the Sunday shows for years, how the nominating process was rigged in Hillary Clinton's favor by a party establishment that gave far too much weight to insiders and superdelegates, and how roughly half of Obama's 2008 supporters migrated to Bernie in 2016. Devine wrestles honestly with the central tension of Sanders' relationship to the party: Bernie would never actually register as a Democrat (unlike Zohran Mamdani, who embraced the label), begrudgingly agreeing only to put "Democrat" next to his name, describing his agenda as the "second agenda of Benjamin Franklin" and understanding perfectly well that the word "socialism" is toxic to many voters even as he refused to abandon it. The what-ifs are tantalizing: Devine argues that if Bernie had been declared the winner of Iowa on caucus night in 2016, the whole race might have unfolded differently, and that if Sanders had won the first three states, the establishment would have mobilized to stop him by any means necessary.

The conversation broadens into a sweeping critique of how Democrats choose their nominees and what the party needs to reform. Devine argues the party must give voters far more control over nominations, that the primary calendar is one of the most important and underappreciated parts of the entire process, and that independents should be allowed to participate in either party's primary rather than being forced to register months in advance. He credits Sanders with hitting on the enduring insight that the system is rigged against working people — a message supercharged after the Supreme Court unleashed the flood of money into politics following Obama's election — and makes the striking counterfactual case that Bernie would have beaten Trump in 2016 because, unlike Hillary Clinton, he could credibly run as a change candidate, and the white working-class vote wouldn't have broken so heavily toward Trump. Devine muses that Sherrod Brown would have made a strong running mate for Sanders, wonders aloud whether Bernie would ever have said yes to Clinton as a running mate, and argues that electing Bernie would have been a powerful national reckoning. He's clear-eyed about the party's deeper problem — the DNC is fundamentally risk-averse, and politics is about taking risks.

Finally, Chuck updates the ToddCast Top 5 most likely senate flips if Maine is off the board for Democrats post-Platner scandal and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:00 The Iran war is now back on

06:00 The rug has been pulled on the world economy once again

06:30 The Iranians won this conflict, they have more leverage

07:30 There’s a difference between campaign lies & major broken promises

09:30 “Build the wall” was a broken promise, but didn’t impact Trump much

10:45 Trump’s other major promise was “No new wars” & Iran is a calamity

12:30 This broken promise is damaging the economy & making life difficult

13:15 When things are going badly, Marco Rubio disappears

14:30 This will be the biggest broken campaign promise in 40 years*

15:00 Candidate Trump was right that an Iran war would be irresponsible

16:15 Ground troops would be a months… if not years commitment

17:30 Trump wanted to stop the war in time for his birthday party

18:00 Trump was more concerned with keeping celebrations on schedule

18:45 NATO meetings currently taking place in Turkey…a complicated ally

19:30 Trump likely only attends this meeting because Erdogan is hosting

20:45 Trump & Erdogan are world leaders that play by the same rules

21:30 Putin has never been this weak as the ruler of Russia

23:00 It’s still perplexing that Trump is so sympathetic to Putin

24:15 Shirking Putin would make things easier for Trump…but he still doesn’t

25:00 Trump’s actions are making us all less safe

26:00 The Maine senate race has turned into a massive debacle

27:30 The framing is “Do you want to fight, or do you want to win?”

28:15 How much leverage does Platner have in choosing his replacement?

29:30 Democratic base wants a fighter, not a uniter this primary cycle

32:00 Pragmatic Democrats should make the “winning” case

32:45 Susan Collins has overperformed “generic Republican” for 30 years

34:30 Platner was caught in a clear lie to Democratic senators *

35:45 Jenny Racicot made clear she believed she was sexually assaulted by Platner

36:45 Platner knew she what she believed and that Racicot was talking to reporters*

38:00 He clearly lied to senators and the lies need to be called out*

39:30 Leaning into misogyny isn’t the way to win back white men

40:15 Platner was the left's idea of how to appeal to working class white men

41:30 Progressives can’t let Trump set the bar for character

42:30 Democrats should be thankful there’s time to fix this

44:30 This could be two high profile races that Bernie endorsees have lost

46:30 It’s much harder for progressives to win in statewide races

47:15 This puts more pressure on Abdul El-Sayed to win in Michigan

48:00 The progressive left needs to get their house in order

49:45 Rumors are flying about the status of Mitch McConnell

50:30 If Republicans wanted to put the rumors to bed, it’d be easy to do

51:30 McConnell’s seat is on the ballot in November

52:00 KY legislature changed law on vacancy appointments, against state constitution

53:00 Law change has never been tested in the courts

54:15 Simplest explanation might be McConnell wants to keep it private

56:00 Could keeping the illusion of McConnell going help with a SCOTUS confirmation?

57:00 This wouldn’t change a confirmation vote by much since he can’t vote

59:30 Fight between Trump administration and the Smithsonian

1:00:00 Administration had a couple fair critiques, but most wasn’t

1:00:30 Administration claimed the Smithsonian is “woke”

1:02:45 Another complaint was not enough America 250 programming/exhibits

1:05:00 Simply asking questions about history isn’t proof of an ideology

1:05:45 Administration is demanding the Smithsonian adopt their own ideology

1:06:30 Report claims left-wing bias, but now insists on a right-wing bias

1:09:15 History is open to interpretation, it’s best to present the facts

01:16:15 Tad Devine joins the Chuck ToddCast  

01:17:30 Why do you say that the Democrats screwed Bernie?  

01:18:45 Got more and more upset while writing the book  

01:20:15 Sanders couldn’t get booked on the Sunday shows for years  

01:23:00 Half of Obama’s supporters went to Bernie  

01:24:00 Obama didn’t learn the fundamental lesson of his own campaign  

01:26:00 The nominating process was rigged by the Democratic party  

01:27:00 Gore didn’t control the party until he became the nominee in 2000  

01:29:15 Why not play favorites when Bernie wouldn’t register as a Democrat?  

01:30:00 Mamdani said he was Democrat, Bernie never would  

01:31:15 Bernie begrudgingly agreed to Democratic Party next to his name  

01:32:45 Bernie described his agenda as “2nd agenda of Benjamin Franklin”  

01:34:00 People recoil at the word socialism, not necessarily the policies  

01:34:45 Bernie understands the word socialism is toxic, but doesn’t care  

01:36:15 Campaign needed to embrace the tapestry of America  

01:36:45 Would election go differently if declared winner of Iowa on caucus night?  

01:38:00 Both campaigns essentially said they won Iowa in 2016 primary  

01:39:15 Bernie didn’t want to be a back-bencher, motivated him to run  

01:40:15 Best measure of support is in open primaries  

01:40:45 In how many states did Trump eaten into Bernie’s support?  

01:41:30 If Bernie won first three states, establishment would try to stop him  

01:42:15 Why did Bernie stand down for Biden?  

01:43:15 Biden took Bernie’s infrastructure proposal and turned it into law  

01:44:30 Was Bernie running to win or to make a point?  

01:45:15 Tried to make a point, then grassroots energy swelled  

01:46:45 The party needs to give voters more control over nominations  

01:48:00 Dukakis wanted to get rid of the superdelegates  

01:49:15 Democratic party gave too much weight to party insiders  

01:50:00 It’s not just a DNC problem, there’s issues with media coverage  

01:50:45 Primary calendar is one of the most important parts of process  

01:52:15 Independents should be allowed to participate in either primary  

01:54:00 Had to register as Dem in fall of 2015 to vote in 2016 primary  

01:56:15 Bernie hit on the idea that the system is rigged against working people  

01:57:15 After Obama won, SCOTUS allowed the flood of money into politics  

01:59:00 Most people want money out of politics, need legislation or amendment  

02:00:30 Voters need to be empowered to solve America’s problems  

02:01:30 How do we get leaders that will let the reforms happen?  

02:03:00 Should we have a broader or narrower definition of Democrat?  

02:04:15 It was remarkable that Bernie did so well with the youngest voters  

02:05:45 Bernie would have beaten Trump, Hillary couldn’t be a change candidate  

02:07:15 White working class vote wouldn’t have gone mostly to Trump  

02:08:45 Sherrod Brown would have been a strong running mate for Bernie  

02:09:30 Would Bernie have said yes to Clinton as a running mate?  

02:10:45 Electing Bernie would have been a powerful reckoning  

02:12:00 The DNC is risk averse and politics is about risk taking  

02:13:15 Bernie shouldn’t run in 2028, he’s too old  

02:14:00 When Bernie is with Mamdani, he seems like Bernie’s son  

02:15:15 AOC - Run for senate or run for president?  

02:16:15 Who will get Bernie’s affection as his successor  

02:20:30 Chuck’s thoughts on the interview with Tad Devine  

02:21:00 ToddCast Top 5 most likely senate flips if Maine is off the board  

02:21:30 #1 North Carolina  

02:22:00 #2 Michigan  

02:25:15 #3 Ohio  

02:25:45 #4 Alaska  

02:26:30 #5 Iowa  

02:26:45 If all these flip, Dems need to find one more seat  

02:29:00 Susan Collins still unlikely to win, but Dems have to get it together  

02:30:00 Democrats have to nominate a woman after Platner scandal  

02:30:45 Ask Chuck  

02:31:15 What’s one widely believed political myth that isn’t true?  

02:35:00 Comparison of Trump’s impact on Atlantic City to Robert Moses?  

02:37:30 Are Republicans not aware a future Dem could use expanded presidential powers?  

02:40:30 USMNT loses to Belgium, whatever Trump touches dies 

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