Even 500 Is Too Few

February 18
45 mins

Episode Description

Don and Tom tackle S&P 500 concentration risk and the dominance of the Magnificent Seven, explaining why diversification still matters despite compelling active management narratives. They clarify the difference between currency and investment in a pointed Bitcoin vs. U.S. dollar discussion, then pivot to fixed income strategy—highlighting why low-cost, large-scale bond funds like BND often outperform higher-fee “active” alternatives that quietly take more credit risk. Listener calls cover 401(k) catch-up contributions, bond ETF selection for retirement income planning, and whether using excess RMD funds for Roth conversions really adds value after taxes and IRMAA considerations. As always, the theme is disciplined investing over storytelling.

0:04 Technical chaos intro and why better investing still matters

1:32 S&P 500 concentration risk and the “Magnificent Seven” problem

2:40 The dangerous “but” in diversification pitches

3:43 Small, value, and momentum factors explained briefly

5:33 Active management as narrative creation

9:57 Bitcoin vs. U.S. dollar as currency vs. investment

13:29 What actually makes something an investment

15:08 Bond ETFs for retirement years 5–8: BND vs. Avantis

17:42 Why bond fund size and expenses matter

21:36 Active bond ETFs, credit risk, and hidden tradeoffs

25:38 401(k) catch-up contributions clarified

30:21 Roth conversions, RMD strategy, and tax math realities

34:09 IRMAA considerations and Medicare premium surprises

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