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A 1% Loss Rate “Unheard Of” in Frontier Markets: How Local-Currency Lending Rewrites African Credit Risk | Clemens Calice, Cygnum Capital (#141)
Episode Description
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A local-currency bond fund put roughly $600 million to work across some of the credit markets the world rates as riskiest — and lost about 1% of it, over 11 years.
That record belongs to Clemens Calice, who walked out of Goldman Sachs in 2009, in the middle of the financial crisis, with two colleagues and no business plan. What he built became Cygnum Capital — today a $1.5 billion platform across seven funds spanning local-currency debt, renewable energy, agriculture, and early-stage venture.
Clemens makes the case that the barrier to institutional capital in Africa was never risk-return — it's deal size, compliance burden across 54 fragmented jurisdictions, and the absence of intermediary infrastructure. He explains why local-currency lending, co-investment with domestic pension funds and insurers, and patient first-mover capital are the mechanisms that actually move a market from unbankable to bankable. Today that platform runs around 150 to 160 individual investments across the continent.
If you work in frontier market investing, climate finance, or blended finance structuring, this is a practitioner's case for what “honest,” evidence-led impact investing looks like on the ground — including where Clemens thinks the industry still overstates its own case.
Featured Guest:
Clemens Calice, CEO | Cygnum Capital Group Ltd
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Conversation with Nick O’Donohoe - Accidental Father of Impact: Nick O’Donohoe on Leading BSC, BII & Building Investability in the Emerging Markets (106)
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Key Takeaways:
• A platform running around 150 to 160 individual investments across the continent — a scale most institutional investors don't associate with Africa-focused funds.
• A local-currency bond fund with $600M deployed over 11 years and a ~1% cumulative loss rate — in markets rated extremely weak from a credit perspective.
• Why the real barrier to African institutional capital is deal size and compliance burden across 54 jurisdictions, not risk-return.
• How the 20/20/60 blended-finance capital stack actually works, deal by deal.
• Why Clemens rejects the term “impact investor” in favor of “responsible investor,” and what “honest impact investing” means in practice.
• The Copperbelt Energy bond: from 178% oversubscribed on its first tranche to 238% on its second.
• Why gas is, in his view, sometimes a necessity for grid stability — and where he draws the line.
Here's what you're in for:
00:00 – Cold Open — Leaving Goldman in 2009: Starting a Firm with No Business Plan
02:56 – Lion's Head: Origins, Name & the South African Connection
06:23 – Emerging Markets as the Only Skill & the Tanzania Farm Detour
10:54 – 200 Chickens in Nairobi: Understanding the Smallholder Farmer
16:03 – Growing Up in Vienna, ETH Zurich & Into Banking by Accident
19:12 – Asian Crisis, INSEAD, New York & Goldman Sachs
22:03 – Cygnum Today: $1.5B AUM, Seven Funds & Four Continents
24:23 – Asset Management & Investment Banking: How the Two Sides Feed Each Other
25:45 – Investor Base & Crowding In Private Capital
28:09 – Rejecting "Theory of Change" for "Responsible Investor"
31:13 – The African Local Currency Bond Fund & KfW Partnership
29:07 – Why Local Currency: Eliminating Systemic Risk & a 1% Loss Rate Over 11 Years
42:58 – Blended Finance Demystified: The 20/20/60 Capital Stack
48:42 – African Risk Premiums & Why Private Capital Hasn't Arbitraged the Gap
52:36 – Cygnum as Intermediary: Removing Non-Financial Barriers to Scale
54:16 – Africa Go Green Fund: Energy Efficiency as the Underfunded Opportunity
57:24 – Clean Cooking, E-Mobility & Green Buildings: What's Scaling & What's Not
01:00:19 – Going First: Telecom Towers, CrossBoundary Energy & the Copperbelt Bond
01:05:51 – African Infrastructure Risk: Perception vs. Data Reality
01:07:52 – Honest Impact Investing & the "Responsible Investor" Label
01:11:12 – Gas, Baseload & the Case for African Economic Sovereignty
01:16:05 – The Lion's Head Split & the Rebrand to Cygnum
01:18:56 – Platform Growth: 20–25% Annually & What Has to Change
01:21:28 – Pre-Roll Clips & Rapid Fire
01:26:09 – Closing & How to Connect with Cygnum Capital
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