Executive summary

Tech and AI: Emails and personal notes written by Greg Brockman that improve Elon Musk's position in his lawsuit against OpenAI and others were revealed during the lawsuit's discovery phase.

• Forecasters think there's a 31% (15% to 40%) chance that Elon Musk will win at least $40 billion in his case against OpenAI.

Geopolitics: Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on imports from eight European countries that oppose US ownership of Greenland, and writes that he “no longer feel[s] an obligation to think purely of Peace”. Iran halted planned executions of protesters after threats of US intervention.

• Forecasters think there's a 21% (9.0% to 40%) chance that an execution of an imprisoned Iranian protester occurs before March 2026, and a 34% (20% to 70%) that the US carries out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026.

• They also think there's a 8.6% (2% to 49%) that the Iranian regime falls before March, a 24% (12% to 67%) chance before July, and a 34% (18% to 70%) before 2027. This would have to involve the IRGC no longer holding power in the country. Forecasters are generally split, with most forecasters clustering [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(03:11) Geopolitics

(03:14) Europe

(07:44) Middle East

(11:58) The Americas

(12:01) Latin America

(13:25) United States

(15:00) Asia

(15:20) Africa

(15:47) Technology and artificial intelligence

(19:11) Economy

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
January 19th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/i-no-longer-feel-an-obligation-to

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.