Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: The EU indefinitely froze €210 billion of Russian assets. The US and Iran seized oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela and in the Gulf of Oman, respectively. Ukraine wants to join the EU before 2027.

  • Forecasters estimate a 38% (25% to 55%) chance that the US will seize another oil tanker related to Venezuela by the end of January 2026, and a 70% (60% to 80%) probability that they will carry out a strike on Venezuelan land in the next three months.

  • They believe there's a 32% (15% to 50%) probability that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030. Back in February, they gave this a 10% (5% to 25%) chance.

  • They also think there's a 23% (15% to 30%) chance that the EU will use frozen Russian assets (either directly or as collateral) to fund Ukraine's defence by the end of January 2026.

• Tech and AI: Trump signed an executive order aiming to restrict the ability of US states to regulate artificial intelligence. OpenAI launched GPT-5.2.

  • And they estimate a 60% (35% to 75%) probability that the US will have federal or [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(02:52) Geopolitics

(02:55) Europe

(06:06) Asia

(06:38) The Americas

(12:22) United States

(13:28) Middle East

(13:42) Africa

(13:59) Technology and artificial intelligence

(17:49) Economy

(18:12) Climate and Nature

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First published:
December 15th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/eu-freezes-russian-assets-us-and

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.