https://x.com/CharlesD353

Partner at Arb (https://arbresearch.com/), former hedge fund manager

Forecasts are generally Nathan’s with some comment from Charles.

Before discussion//after discussion

Will Anthropic be designated a supply chain risk on May 1st?42.9%//39.4%

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42491/will-anthropic-be-a-designated-supply-chain-risk-on-may-1-2026/ 

California (CA) court grants relief: 83%, Charles though this was too low // 90%

CA gives broad injunction: 45%, Charles thought this was too high // 30%

DC grants relief: 70% // 90%

DC ruling timing: median 21d, we had a long discussion // 5 days from 25th, turns out that there has been progress 

(see addendum at end of podcast)

Will the US Govt do a deal with anthropic before may 1st? Market: 16%, Nathan thinks more like 3%

https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropic-make-a-deal-with-the-pentagon

A lot of discussion on closed and resolved markets on https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-spring-2026/