Andrew's Predictions (20/02/2026)

Iran

The US attacks Iran before end of March: 73%

The US attacks Iran before end of this year: 82%

Iran becomes a liberal democracy by end of next year: <<1%

Iran becomes a monarchy (Pahlavi restoration): <5%

Chinese AI Models

We struggled to have a meaningful forecast here. Andrew bullish on Chinese models, particularly for research. Was hard to pin down questions of developer use.

UK Politics

Starmer out as PM by the end of the year: ~77%

If Starmer goes, who replaces him:

Angela Rayner: ~40–45%

Ed Miliband: ~20–25%

Wes Streeting: ~10–15%

British Monarchy

Britain is still a monarchy by 2045: ~80%

US 2028 Election — Democratic Primary

Kamala Harris gets the Democratic nomination: ~30% (unconditional)

Kamala Harris gets the nomination given the current known field (Kamala, Newsom, AOC, Ossoff, Shapiro, Pritzker, Buttigieg): ~45–50%

A celebrity wins a state in the 2028 Dem primary: 7–8%

US 2028 Election — Republican Primary

Vance >45%

Rubio >25%

Taiwan

China invades Taiwan before 2030: 5–8%

China blockades or invades Taiwan before 2030 (combined): 14–18%

The Taiwan question is resolved in China's favour (by military or political means) by 2045: ~60%

European Governance

A Western democracy (20m+ population) undergoes significant constitutional change, OR 2+ countries leave the EU, by 2045: ~15%

Fertility

Most Western countries will hit South Korean levels of ultra-low fertility by the mid-to-late 2030s.

AI & Economic Growth

Any year before 2050 where GDP is 30% higher than the previous five-year high (i.e. an AI-driven explosive growth year): <<1%.