There is a 90% chance for a rate hike... Today we cover growing economic and market risks, as we hone in on AI, inflation, interest rates, housing, and government spending. There is increasingly negative messaging from major AI companies, arguing that calls for regulation may reflect slowing AI growth and a desire to limit competition rather than purely concern for public safety, while warning that a slowdown in AI investment could expose an already stagnant economy and increase recession risks. We also talk the rising expectations for Fed rate hikes, higher Treasury yields, and weakening housing affordability. We review seasonal market weakness in September and October, stock issuance as a potential warning sign of corporate stress, and why investors should remain cautious and reduce risk amid increasing volatility and uncertainty. 

We discuss... 

College planning and how scholarships can dramatically reduce the actual cost of expensive liberal arts colleges.
The changing narrative around AI and whether growing calls for AI regulation are partly driven by major companies trying to limit competition.
Whether AI development is beginning to plateau after several years of rapid growth and what that could mean for the economy and markets.
Slowing AI investment could expose underlying economic weakness and potentially contribute to stagnation or recession.
Rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes as inflation and employment data point toward a more challenging economic environment.
Higher interest rates and Treasury yields could put additional pressure on an already stretched housing market.
How housing affordability has deteriorated dramatically for younger Americans and why falling home prices could ultimately be beneficial for buyers.
Why mortgage rates are influenced more directly by Treasury yields and the broader yield curve than by the Fed's policy rate alone.
How the traditional 60/40 portfolio has become less effective as stocks and bonds have increasingly moved together.
Why rising interest rates can make short-term fixed income more attractive while creating risks for investors holding longer-term bonds.
How everyday necessities such as groceries, shelter, insurance, fuel, and coffee have risen sharply in price despite headline inflation appearing much lower.
Rising gas prices and their potential political consequences heading into the midterm elections.
Increased corporate stock issuance as a potential warning sign that companies may be relying on equity financing rather than debt to raise capital.

For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/chance-for-a-rate-hike-851