Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing.

For more information, visit GotTheGold.com... I'm your host, Justin two-point-oh... This is Market Pulse. Tuesday's numbers.

Final trading day of 2025.

Oil

• Mixed on year-end session
 • Brent rose 0.33% to $61.69
 • WTI fell 0.5% to $57.72
 • Both benchmarks closing worst year since 2020
 • Brent down 16% annually
 • WTI down 18%
 • Oversupply narrative dominated 2025
 • OPEC+ output increases scheduled for January
 • Chinese demand weakness persisted throughout year
 • U.S. production remained elevated
 • Geopolitical tensions provided minimal support

Natural Gas

• Climbed
 • Rose to $4.04/MMBtu as of midday
 • January contract near $4.42
 • Weather forecasts supporting prices
 • Storage draws accelerating
 • LNG exports remain robust near record levels
 • U.S. production holding at 107.74 bcf/day
 • Winter volatility expected through January
 • 12-month strip forecast at $3.76

Equity Markets

• Full trading day
 • Bond market closing early at 2 PM Eastern
 • Markets closed Wednesday for New Year's Day
 • Full-year 2025 performance exceptional
 • S&P up 23%
 • Nasdaq up 28%
 • Technology and AI-focused stocks led gains
 • Fed rate cuts catalyzed rally
 • Energy worst-performing sector
 • Small caps surged fourth quarter
 • Year-end positioning complete

Real Estate

• Closing strong year
 • Office vacancy peaked at 20.4% first quarter but stabilizing
 • Prime spaces in key markets showing strength
 • Flight to quality driving Class A demand
 • Industrial leasing rebounded late year
 • E-commerce and manufacturing supporting warehouse demand
 • Multifamily occupancy stabilized
 • Rent growth returning most markets
 • Retail showing resilience — grocery-anchored centers performing well
 • Construction slowdown expected to drive rent increases
 • Data centers explosive growth from AI workloads
 • 88% of executives expecting higher revenues in 2026

Credit Markets

• Record year
 • Private credit reached $3.5 trillion assets under management, up 17% from 2023
 • Strong fundraising with $209 billion in final closes
 • Competition increasing from broadly syndicated loan market
 • Bank partnerships expanding
 • Private credit providing capital-efficient solutions for long-dated corporate loans, infrastructure, real estate
 • Asset-based finance projected at $8 trillion in three years
 • Retail participation growing through evergreen funds
 • Direct lending appetite remains strong
 • M&A rebound expected to drive 2026 growth

Bottom Line

• Oil: Targeting sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75
 • Gas: Selective exposure, winter contracts locked
 • Industrial: Sub-6.5% caps near logistics hubs
 • Senior secured credit: SOFR + 650, LTV under 65%

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