Rabies-infested beavers. Not an insult - a fiscal strategy. Canadians have stopped buying bourbon, started flying maple leaf flags in grocery stores, and ~ most importantly ~ handed Mark Carney the political cover to build infrastructure needed since the OG Trudeau. This week: why "size of the fight in the dog" beats a trade balance sheet, why 5% tariff coverage is somehow triggering a national identity crisis, and why America might be the Uncle Dennis of North America - took free money, overstayed the welcome, and is now shocked nobody wants him at Thanksgiving.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Housekeeping

(00:35) - Canada Episode Setup

(01:05) - Trade War Rupture

(02:25) - Why Tariffs Now

(04:18) - States at Risk

(05:38) - Carney Strikes Back

(06:40) - Risk Tolerance Matters

(08:29) - Canada Consumer Backlash

(10:20) - Carney Fiscal Space Plan

(12:20) - Infrastructure Reality Check

(15:26) - Quebec and Unity Messaging

(17:22) - Economic Pain and Polls

(20:49) - What Exports Really Are

(24:00) - China Veto Red Line

(27:01) - Maple 8 Pension Power

(29:12) - Canada Defense Mythbusting

(37:41) - Is America the Threat

(42:00) - Imperialism and History

(44:03) - WWII Alliance Origins

(44:42) - Peace Dividend Border

(46:03) - Risk Logic Defense Costs

(46:37) - Why Invasion Fails

(51:56) - Trade War Won't Work

(53:17) - Canada Already Concedes

(57:38) - Defense As Bargaining

(01:00:46) - Schoolyard Bully Moment

(01:06:13) - Canada EU Option

(01:10:44) - Peace Arch Warning

(01:12:13) - US Politics Fallout

(01:16:25) - Higher Price Later

(01:19:54) - Sports Metaphor Wrap

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro