#312

Once a month, auction specialist Jay Howard from Hammered Auctions joins us to report from the front line of UK property auctions.

Jay and his business partner Piotr Rusinek are property traders, authors of the UK's number one bestselling book on auctions, and the people behind the Auction Buyers Club, Property Trading Academy and Beyond the Hammer

This month: a 100% clearance rate, the monkey brain that costs investors real money, why summer 2025 is Christmas for property traders, and a valuation question that almost every auction buyer gets wrong.

Check out our shorts on YouTube

Our WhatsApp  group

Property Engine discounts (Code: EXPAT)
Starter: 30 day trial
Pro: 30 day trial/3 mths 1/2 price, Ultimate: 1/2 price 3 months
Goalsetting
Leave a review
37 Question Due Diligence Checklist / Auction Guide
Our Sponsors: Finnigan McNeill Property Group

This month...

Barnet Ross: 100% Clearance

Jay's Auction Buyers Club recently hosted two senior figures from Barnet Ross — a London-based auctioneer whose catalogue runs heavily to mixed-use and commercial property — for a live run-through of their upcoming lots.

Out of roughly 20 lots, every single property sold. Not one withdrawal. 100% sold prior or on the day.

That figure is harder to achieve than it sounds. A 100% clearance rate means no unsold lots, no vendor disappointments, no stock carried forward. It's the number auctioneers quietly compete on, and Barnet Ross had a very good month.

Don't Be the Monkey: Pre-Auction Bidding Discipline

Two members of the Buyers Club were tracking a property in a recent Savills auction, guided at around £1.1 million with a desktop valuation of £1.98 million. After running the numbers — holding costs, refurbishment, letting — their maximum was £1.225 million. They offered £1.2 million pre-auction.

A competing buyer came in at £1.25 million.

The question they brought to Jay: should we go to £1.3 million?

Jay's answer: you can offer £1.3 million. But the moment you do, the other buyer goes to £1.35 million. Then you're looking at £1.4 million. Then £1.5 million. You're in an auction. And you've stopped investing and started competing.

Jay calls it the monkey brain. You don't want the banana because it's a good banana. You want it because another monkey wants it. The moment that happens, you've lost the plot — and potentially a lot of money.

The practical resolution: there are five near-identical properties going into the next Allsop auction. Let the other buyer overpay. Go get one of those bananas instead.

"Christmas in Summertime": The Case for Buying Now

Jay's market read this month is direct: now is the time to buy.

Competition is muted. Many investors have stopped transacting. Flats in particular are trading at prices last seen in 2012 — which, Jay notes, doesn't require an economist to interpret. Buying a flat in a good area at 2012 prices and holding for one to two years represents significant capital upside, even before a refinance.

His phrase for the current auction environment: Christmas in summertime. The deals are there. The competition isn't. Investors in his Trading Academy are cycling capital straight back into the next auction the moment a trade completes.

For expat investors with capital ready to deploy, the message is clear: the window is open.

AVM vs Desktop Valuation: What Auction Buyers Actually Need to Know

A member of Jay's group raised a question about desktop valuations this month, and Jay's answer is worth unpacking properly because most auction buyers conflate two very different things.

AVM (Automated Valuation Model) A piece of technology — Hometrack is one of the better-known examples — that pulls data from multiple datasets and produces a confidence-weighted value and a 90-day sale figure. Costs around £30. Completely unemotional: the algorithm doesn't earn a fee if you buy, so it has no motivation to inflate the number.

Desktop Valuation A RICS-qualified surveyor doing their work remotely — comparables, pound per square foot, yield analysis — without visiting the property. More expensive than an AVM, more credible with lenders, but still a lender tool rather than a market price.

The critical point Jay makes: neither figure has any meaningful correlation with what buyers will actually pay at auction. What a lender values a property at, and what the market will bid it to on the day, are always two different numbers — sometimes very different numbers.

AVMs are useful for working out your maximum offer and your likely LTV. They are not a guide to auction value. A deal sourcer telling you the AVM supports their asking price has a motivation the AVM itself does not.

Stick to Your Guns: The Post-Auction Phone Call

A member of Jay's Property Trading Academy bid £150,000 on a property at a Pattinson's auction. The property went to £174,000. He didn't win. He moved on.

The following day, the auctioneer called. The winning bidder had pulled out. The property was available — for £174,000.

The investor's response: why would I pay £174,000? My maximum was £150,000. You can see my maximum was £150,000. You're asking me to pay £24,000 more than my number because someone else couldn't complete at theirs?

Jay's advice: stick to your guns. Your number is your number because of the analysis behind it. The fact that someone else bid higher and then couldn't complete doesn't change the fundamentals of the deal. Going beyond your maximum at that point isn't bold investing — it's poor investing.

Guest

Jay Howard — Auction expert, property trader, author Jay and Piotr Rusinek are co-authors of the UK's number one bestselling book on property auctions. They run the Auction Buyers Club and the Property Trading Academy. Links in the episode description.

Key Takeaways

• Barnet Ross achieved 100% clearance at their recent auction — every lot sold prior or on the day
• Pre-auction bidding can trigger the monkey brain: competing to win rather than investing to profit. Know your number and hold it
• Summer 2025 is a buyer's market at auction — competition is muted, flats are at 2012 prices, and capital is being redeployed fast by active traders
• AVM and desktop valuations are lender tools, not market price guides — there is no reliable correlation between either figure and what buyers will bid on the day
• AVMs are unemotional; deal sourcers are not. Understand the motivation behind any valuation figure you're shown
• If you miss a lot and get a post-auction call, your maximum bid is still your maximum bid — the other buyer's failure doesn't change your numbers

Keywords: UK property auction news, property auction UK, buying property at auction, AVM valuation UK, desktop valuation property, property auction tips, auction bidding strategy, UK property market summer 2025, property trader UK, Auction Buyers Club, expat property podcast, buy to let auction UK, property auction clearance rate, post-auction offer UK