NYJ @ NE | WAS vs. MIA | CAR @ ATL | TB @ BUF | HOU @ TEN | CHI @ MIN | GB @ NYG | CIN @ PIT | LAC @ JAX | SEA @ LAR | SF @ ARI | BAL @ CLE | KC @ DEN | DET @ PHI | DAL @ LV

 

 

Thursday Night Football

N.Y. Jets @ New England

Team Totals: Patriots 28.5, Jets 15

Even after back-to-back wins, the Jets visit Foxboro in a dismal state. They traded their best two defensive players last week. Their first-year head coach is combative, defensive, and paranoid. Their owner sows locker-room division. Their quarterback could be benched for his 36-year-old journeyman backup at a moment’s notice. Last week, New York’s best pass catcher aggravated a pre-existing knee injury and could miss a month. And they’re nearly two-touchdown road dogs here. The only fantasy format where Justin Fields is playable this week is on single-game DFS tournament slates. … After surprisingly holding onto him through last week’s trade deadline, the Jets fed Breece Hall 22 touches on a 71% playing-time rate in Gang Green’s Week 10 win over the Browns. Isaiah Davis (4, 29%) took a clear back seat. Yet Thursday night’s projected flow bodes poorly for the Jets’ chances of repeating last week’s run-friendly game script, while no team in the league has permitted fewer fantasy running back points than the Patriots. Hall is a high-risk, low-floor RB2 bet.

Sans Garrett Wilson (knee), Mason Taylor is probably the Jets’ best bet for pass-catching production. Among healthy Jets wideouts and tight ends, Taylor leads the team in targets (31), catches (21), yards (188), and first-down conversions (13) on Fields’ 2025 throws. New England has allowed the fifth-most catches (61) and sixth-most yards (654) to tight ends. … In order, fourth-round rookie burner Arian Smith, big slot Tyler Johnson, and smurfish return type Isaiah Williams ranked 1-2-3 among Jets WRs in Week 10 snaps. Deadline pickup Adonai Mitchell, easily the most talented wide receiver on the team, was inactive for Week 10 but could rotate in here. They’re all mere dart throws on one-game DFS slates.

At DraftKings Sportsbook, your MVP favorite is currently Drake Maye, who’s quarterbacked the Patriots to seven straight wins and a two-game lead atop the AFC East. Also fantasy’s overall QB4 in per-game scoring, Maye now draws a Jets defense that’s surrendered the NFL’s seventh-highest passer rating (103.6) and fifth-most QB rushing yards (233). Maye ranks sixth at his position in rushing (283). … With Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) and Terrell Jennings (knee) both limited in early-week practices, the complexion of New England’s backfield could go down to the wire. Picking up the blitz to perfection and banging long runs on hefty workloads lately, TreVeyon Henderson is an exciting start against the Quinnen Williams-less Jets defense regardless. In last week’s win over Tampa Bay, Henderson reached 22.01 MPH on his 69-yard touchdown run, the fastest timed speed by any rookie ball carrier this season. And PFF charged Henderson with zero pressures allowed in pass protection. I’ll put a backfield update below this paragraph before Thursday night’s kickoff.

UPDATE: Patriots ruled out Rhamondre Stevenson (toe). Terrell Jennings (knee) is listed as questionable. I expect another feature back-type workload for TreVeyon Henderson, who averaged 16.5 touches on a 79% playing-time rate minus Stevenson over the last two games. Henderson performed well in both opportunities, but I think he can go truly ballistic here.

Kayshon Boutte’s (hamstring) status is also TBD, and his availability affects the outlooks for rookie Kyle Williams and usual wind sprinter Mack Hollins in particular. In Boutte’s absence last week, Hollins led New England in targets (10) and receiving (6/106/0), while Williams took a play-action lob to the house from 72 yards away in the first quarter versus Tampa Bay. Stefon Diggs and Pop Douglas’ roles were unchanged. Thursday’s matchup is a cinch; Sauce Gardner is gone, his fill-in Azareye’h Thomas will sit with a concussion, and no other Jets corners have been able to cover anyone all year. Jerry Jeudy had his best game of the season against this same Gang Green secondary last week. … Hunter Henry warrants a projection boost on TNF. No. 2 TE Austin Hooper, who’s been playing 56% of New England’s offensive snaps, will be inactive for this one due to a concussion.

Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Jets 10

 

 

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

 

Sunday 9:30 AM ET Game (Madrid, Spain)

Washington @ Miami

Team Totals: Commanders 22.5, Dolphins 25

Losers of five in a row, the Commanders won’t have Jayden Daniels (dislocated elbow) here but have yet to put him on I.R. It’s a winnable spot (in Superflex leagues) for Marcus Mariota with EDGE Jaelen Phillips gone to Philadelphia and Chop Robinson in the league’s concussion protocol: Mariota’s earned PFF’s sixth-highest grade when kept clean. … Chris Rodriguez Jr. will get the first crack among this backfield after starting in Week 10 and scoring a TD before exiting with a shoulder injury. Unfortunately, Miami’s run defense has turned the corner in limiting Quinshon Judkins (3.3 yards per carry), Bijan Robinson (2.7), and James Cook (53 yards) over the past month after their historically rough opening. Jacory Croskey-Merritt also lurks as a potential (albeit unusable in season-long) hot hand. As it stands, Rodriguez gets the RB3/4 lean for starting, though he’ll have to find the end zone to return points (and could always lose out in-game to Croskey-Merritt if the latter busts a big run). JCM should remain stashed ahead of the fantasy postseason.

Washington’s go-to WR by default sans Terry McLaurin (quad), Deebo Samuel has not eclipsed 45 yards since initially suffering his heel injury in Week 5. He’s droppable in 10-team leagues as Miami has limited its opposition’s WR1 to 50.9 yards per game (seventh). … Treylon Burks underwent finger surgery after leading the Commanders in receiving in Week 10, leaving the door open for any of Chris Moore, Luke McCaffrey (out against the Lions), and Jaylin Lane to replace him; Moore has gone three consecutive games without a target, and Lane was relegated to seven routes (27%) last week. Averaging 18.5 and 20.5 yards per catch, McCaffrey and Moore are uninspiring showdown punts. If solely looking for the individual who will run the most routes, Robbie Chosen could potentially play more than all (behind Deebo). … Miami is defending 8.0 per-game targets to TEs, gifting Zach Ertz a comfortable TE2 floor with no ceiling. John Bates could sneak into winning showdown lineups for soaking up Ben Sinnott’s (ankle) limited role.

Commanders HC Dan Quinn will take over the team’s defensive play-calling from Joe Whitt Jr., albeit without six defensive starters opposite Miami’s speed-injected offense. Tua Tagovailoa has shed the ball at the NFL’s quickest time (2.49 seconds), and Washington’s secondary has permitted a league-high 8.3 yards per attempt when defending passes within 2.5 seconds from snap to throw (per Fantasy Points Data). … De’Von Achane ripped 59- and 35-yard runs in the fourth quarter of Miami’s upset over Buffalo, forcing 11 missed tackles for 195 yards after contact. Run-stuffing DT Daron Payne is suspended here after throwing a punch at Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs, who has a similar explosive profile to Achane, just shredded Washington for 172 yards from scrimmage and 9.5 yards per touch.

Jaylen Waddle smoked PFF’s No. 16 coverage CB Maxwell Hairston for a 38-yard TD in Week 10, scoring 16 per-game points as fantasy’s WR14 in six starts without Tyreek Hill. The Commanders have quietly permitted 20 fantasy points to enemy WR1s in four straight games. … Only Khalil Shakir is averaging a shorter depth of target (3.7) than Malik Washington (4.6) since Week 5 (when Miami initially lost Hill), but there’s some FLEX hope for the latter in this spot given Washington’s 59.9 weekly yards leaked to WR2s (30th). … Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has yet to reach 25 yards in any game, leaving Cedrick Wilson and Tahj Washington equally as intriguing (for cheaper) on single-game slates. … Greg Dulcich’s route participation since joining the Fins has increased in every game, including his 74% rate (for one 22-yard catch) against Buffalo. And unlike the Bills, which have limited TEs with success all year, Washington has sprung double-digit fantasy points to every TE1 over the last month.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 24, Commanders 14

 

 

Carolina @ Atlanta

Team Totals: Falcons 23, Panthers 19.5

The Panthers visit Atlanta off a massive letdown loss to the Saints following Week 9’s upset win at Lambeau Field. I like Carolina’s chances of bouncing back here, at least to the extent that they cover Sunday’s 3.5-point spread. The Panthers are the NFL’s run-heaviest team, while Atlanta fields the NFC’s biggest run-funnel defense, hemorrhaging 4.8 yards per carry and 148.7 total yards per game to enemy backs. Losers of four straight, the Falcons are also on dangerously short rest trekking back from Week 10’s loss to the Colts in Berlin. This is an eruption spot for Rico Dowdle, who controlled 21 touches on a 79% playing-time clip over Chuba Hubbard (4, 21%) versus New Orleans. … On a week-to-week basis, no NFL coach goes out of his way more to hide his quarterback than Dave Canales does with Bryce Young. The Panthers run the ball voluminously even when they are playing from behind. It bleeds down to Tetairoa McMillan, whose capped volume renders him a weekly WR3/flex option while eliminating the rest of Carolina’s pass catchers from FF relevance.

Panthers-Falcons profiles as a low-scoring, run-heavy affair that bogs down play volume on both sides. Michael Penix Jr. is fantasy’s QB29 in per-game scoring. Carolina has allowed the NFL’s 11th-fewest fantasy QB points. … There are two concerns regarding Bijan Robinson’s Week 11 outlook: the health of OGs Matthew Bergeron (ankle) and Chris Lindstrom (foot), and OC Zac Robinson’s preference for feeding Tyler Allgeier in scoring position. On the year, Allgeier has 20 carries to Bijan’s 15 in the red zone and 13 carries to Bijan’s five inside the 10. Robinson remains one of the league’s most talented offensive playmakers and a workhorse back on a team favored at home. (The two concerns are mere notable nitpicks.)

Drake London is averaging 11.6 targets and a 7.4/106.4/1.2 receiving average over Penix’s last five starts. OC Robinson does a consistently good job of moving London away from opponents’ strongest areas of coverage. In Week 10’s loss, London managed 26 scoreless yards on 17 routes versus Sauce Gardner but came away with 4/78/1 receiving against the rest of Indianapolis’ DBs. … Darnell Mooney re-emphasized his complete lack of chemistry with Penix in Berlin, managing 17 scoreless yards on eight targets. Mooney has been a drop in season-long leagues for a while. … The Panthers have surrendered the NFL’s fourth-most yards to tight ends (704). A confident TE1 starter at this point, Kyle Pitts ranks fifth among tight ends in targets (59), fourth in receptions (45), and 10th in receiving yards (420).

Score Prediction: Panthers 23, Falcons 20

 

 

Tampa Bay @ Buffalo

Team Totals: Bills 26, Bucs 20.5

Baker Mayfield profiles as a fringe QB1/2 in what’s expected to be suboptimal weather facing a run-funnel Bills defense. Forecasts are calling for sustained 20 mph winds with 35 mph gusts, while Sean McDermott’s unit has yielded the league’s fifth-lowest completion rate (62.3%) and sixth-lowest passer rating (84.8). Sparked by the offseason addition of Joey Bosa, Buffalo is generating the NFL’s fourth-highest pressure rate (28%). … On paper, the Bucs’ best means of attacking the Bills would be heavy doses of Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. Although Tucker is clearly the better runner of the two, my bet is on White continuing to out-snap Tucker by a large margin because of White’s superior pass pro and this game’s projected negative script. I still think Tucker is flex-playable; he led the Bucs in rushing last Sunday despite playing 28 fewer snaps than White. But White remains the more confident RB2 between the two, especially if you think the Bucs indeed fall behind.

Chris Godwin (fibula) can’t get right, and Mike Evans (collarbone) is out for at least another month. That means Emeka Egbuka will remain a target monster for the foreseeable future. His matchup is difficult this week — the Bills are getting back their top two CBs, Christian Benford and Taron Johnson, after both missed last Sunday — and Egbuka beat up on a similarly stout secondary last Sunday, tagging the Patriots for 6/115/1 on 13 targets. … Seventh-round rookie Tez Johnson has been a touchdown-scoring madman with four end-zone trips over the last four weeks, but he’s yet to clear 60 yards in an individual game, and this is a tough draw in unfavorable conditions. He’s a low-floor WR3/flex option. … No team has allowed fewer fantasy points to tight ends than Buffalo, but I’m riding with Cade Otton anyway. Otton saw 12 targets last week, an extremely rare feat at tight end.

Josh Allen may be less affected by Sunday’s weather than most quarterbacks due to his size, strength, running ability, and experience playing in such conditions. It can’t hurt that the Bucs are without top pass-rushing EDGE Haason Reddick (ankle/knee). This is a huge bounce-back game for Buffalo as a team returning home after last week’s massive letdown loss at Miami. Allen should be at the forefront of that. … Todd Bowles’ team takes pride in stopping the run and indeed does it well every year, but I’m not overthinking James Cook. The Bills are home favorites, and Cook is averaging 20.4 touches for 116 yards per game.

Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) will miss Week 11, increasing the box-score appeal of Khalil Shakir and Dawson Knox in particular. Kincaid and Shakir run routes in similar areas of the field, and Shakir was already averaging 8.0 targets over his last three games. The Bucs have allowed the NFL’s ninth-most catches (115) and ninth-most yards (1,440) to wide receivers. … Keon Coleman hasn’t reached 50 yards in a game since Week 1. I refuse to fall into that trap again. … Knox enters the top end of fantasy’s big bucket of TD-dependent tight ends.

Score Prediction: Bills 27, Bucs 17

 

 

Houston @ Tennessee

Team Totals: Texans 21.5, Titans 16

Texans-Titans projects as an ugly affair sporting Week 11’s lowest total, pitting Davis Mills against Cam Ward. Career backup Mills engineered just 10 points through three quarters in last week’s start before leading a furious fourth-quarter rally to upend Jacksonville. I’m not taking Mills seriously beyond two-QB leagues but believe he is competent enough in a friendly enough matchup to keep other Texans skill players afloat. … Woody Marks looked to emerge as Houston’s bellcow back in Week 10’s victory, out-snapping Nick Chubb 60 to 10 and out-touching Chubb 16 to 6. Compared internally to Bucky Irving by Texans scouts, Marks is a high-effort grinder with excellent receiving chops and offers Week 11 breakout potential against a Titans defense surrendering the NFL’s second-most fantasy RB points.

Mills’ 2025 target distribution: Nico Collins 23; Dalton Schultz 17; Jayden Higgins and Christian Kirk 8; Marks 6; Jaylin Noel 5; Xavier Hutchinson 4. … The #ShowerNarrative is strong between Mills and Collins, who both entered the league as third-round picks in the 2021 draft and have spent their entire careers together. I’m considering Collins a high-confidence WR1 against a Titans pass defense that has been dismantled by injuries and trades. … Especially with Schultz’s (shoulder/illness) health in question and No. 2 TE Cade Stover (foot) apparently due back, I’m passing on the rest of Houston’s pass catchers here. The Texans deployed a full-blown committee at Nos. 2-5 wide receiver in last Sunday’s win.

Optimism should barely exist for Tennessee’s offense versus a Texans team allowing a league-low 16.7 points per game. Houston’s defense figures to pin its ears back versus Ward, on pace to absorb a league-high 72 sacks for an NFL-record 557 sack yardage lost. … The Titans come out of their bye with Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard likely to continue forming a near-50/50 RBBC. Word on the street is Titans owner Amy Adams Strunk nixed a Pollard trade to New England due to lasting animosity between Strunk and Mike Vrabel. …. Calvin Ridley (hamstring) is tentatively expected to make his first appearance since Week 6. His matchup feels impossible versus Texans perimeter CBs Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter. … Rookies Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike round out Tennessee’s three-wide sets. Both take box-score projection hits with Ridley returning. Dike may no longer be a full-time player. … Chig Okonkwo and Gunnar Helm’s TE rotation negates their FF relevance.

Score Prediction: Texans 20, Titans 13

 

 

Chicago @ Minnesota

Team Totals: Vikings 25.5, Bears 23

Up to QB9 in fantasy scoring, Caleb Williams is showing signs of coming into his own under rookie HC Ben Johnson. Williams has cut way down on sacks — after taking 68 as a rookie, Caleb is on pace for just 27 this year — and upped his aggressiveness as a runner, ranking eighth among quarterbacks in rushing yards (246). The Vikings blitz at the NFL’s highest rate (42%); Williams was PFF’s second-highest-graded rookie passer since 2016 against the blitz last year and is averaging 8.2 yards per attempt with a 7:0 TD-to-INT ratio when blitzed this season. Williams’ supporting cast is as healthy as it’s been all year, while this game’s domed environment adds to Caleb’s QB1 appeal. … D’Andre Swift retook the Bears’ lead back role in Week 10’s return from his groin injury, out-touching Kyle Monangai 18 to 7 and out-snapping the rookie 42 to 26 en route to 98 yards from scrimmage. The Vikings pose a roughly average matchup for running backs, but Chicago’s offensive line has emerged as an elite run-blocking unit, and Swift can be counted on for 15+ touches.

Caleb’s 2025 targets: Rome Odunze 68; Olamide Zaccheaus 50; D.J. Moore 48; Swift 32; Colston Loveland 28; Cole Kmet 22; Luther Burden III 17; Monangai 15. … Odunze has been an up-and-down fantasy WR2, and the Vikings haven’t been overly giving to wideouts. But Odunze clearly remains Chicago’s alpha receiver, particularly in scoring position, where he’s drawn five targets inside the 10 and no other Bear has more than two. … Zaccheaus and Moore are canceling out each other’s FF relevance by splitting No. 2 wideout duties down the middle. … The same essentially goes for the Bears’ tight ends, although Loveland is running a few more routes and seeing a few more targets than Kmet every week. But with both healthy, neither is a full-time player. … Burden remains electric with the ball in his hands but has yet to play even 50% of Chicago’s offensive snaps in a single game.

J.J. McCarthy practiced with a bandage on his right (throwing) hand this week after banging it on a defender’s helmet in last Sunday’s loss to Baltimore. Immediately after the injury, McCarthy went 6-of-16 passing with a 40% off-target rate (ESPN Stats). Already struggling as a thrower, McCarthy has yet to reach 250 passing yards in an individual game through four starts. This is a plus matchup in a dome, but I don’t trust McCarthy’s passing efficiency whatsoever. … Aaron Jones logged a year-high 71% snap rate and out-touched Jordan Mason 12 to 5 in Week 10’s loss to Baltimore. Mostly healthy at this stage, Jones is clearly the Vikings’ best backfield option and could take on a bigger role here with McCarthy at less than 100%. Running backs have pasted Chicago for 4.9 yards per carry, and the Bears will not have top ILB T.J. Edwards (hand/hamstring) on Sunday. Jones is a confident RB2 start.

McCarthy’s 2025 target distribution: Justin Jefferson 34; Jalen Nailor 18; Jordan Addison 15; Jones and T.J. Hockenson 12; Adam Thielen 7; Mason 6. … Jefferson warned us about McCarthy during training camp, and there has been little to no chemistry between the two. Jefferson’s stat lines in McCarthy’s four career starts: 4/44/1, 3/81/0, 6/47/1, 4/37/0. Both of McCarthy’s Week 10 picks came on throws intended for Jefferson, who has a dismal 50% catch rate on McCarthy’s targets this year. … Nailor led the Vikings in Week 10 receiving but remains Minnesota’s clear-cut No. 3 wideout. Nailor has cleared 40 yards in one game all season. … Addison’s stat lines in two career games with McCarthy: 2/48/0 and 3/35/0. … Hockenson’s receiving lines in McCarthy’s four career starts: 3/15/0, 1/12/0, 2/11/1, 2/8/0.

Score Prediction: Bears 24, Vikings 23

 

 

Green Bay @ N.Y. Giants

Team Totals: Packers 25.5, Giants 19.5

On a short week, the Packers visit MetLife Stadium losers of back-to-back home games in which they scored a combined 20 points against the Panthers and Eagles, losing top player Tucker Kraft (ACL) and two-time Pro Bowl C Elgton Jenkins (ankle) to year-ending injuries along the way. Eagles DE Jaelan Phillips, on Philly’s roster for less than a week, wreaked game-long havoc against Green Bay last Monday night. When pressured, Jordan Love went 3-of-12 passing for 21 yards with three sacks taken in the loss. Still hyper-talented up front defensively, I like the Giants’ D/ST’s odds of getting hot here. I also like New York to cover the 7-point spread. … Josh Jacobs represents Green Bay’s best chance of moving the chains and keeping Love clean against a Giants defense that enemy running backs have torched for 5.8 yards per carry and 151.9 total yards per game. Jenkins’ loss doesn’t help Jacobs, but next-man-up C Sean Rhyan has made 21 starts in the last season and a half.

Romeo Doubs (chest) left Monday’s game but sounds likelier than not to face the G-Men. Matthew Golden (shoulder), inactive against the Eagles, looks iffy at best and has been a disappointment when 100%. Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton, Malik Heath, and Savion Williams are available for rotational roles. I’d pick Christian Watson if forced to start a Packers wideout in Week 11. He’s Green Bay’s deep threat, and the Giants have conceded the NFL’s 10th-most 20+ yard completions (29). Healthier than Doubs, Watson paced Packers pass catchers in snaps and routes run last week. … In Green Bay’s first post-Kraft game, Luke Musgrave caught all three of his targets for 23 yards on a 76% snap rate against the Eagles. More productive days are ahead. I like Musgrave as an upside TE1/2 streamer here.

Mostly because he just isn’t Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston can expect a roaring ovation at MetLife when he runs on the field Sunday. Interim HC Mike Kafka is opting for variance in Jaxson Dart’s (concussion) absence, and Winston brings that trait in spades, often to his own detriment. The Packers’ D/ST offers all kinds of ceiling. … Devin Singletary lost his in-house support system when Brian Daboll was fired this week. This is a quietly exciting spot for Tyrone Tracy Jr., who Kafka publicly promoted as the Giants’ starter before Week 10’s loss to the Bears. Tracy wound up out-snapping Singletary 49 to 24 and out-touching Singletary 15 to 11, and the divide figures to be greater here. I’m teeing up Tracy as a volatile RB2 play.

Winston has never thrown a pass as a Giant, and top vertical WR Darius Slayton has been hurt all year. Slayton pulled his hamstring at Chicago last week and can’t be trusted in fantasy. … We do know Winston has a propensity to pepper individuals with targets, and Wan’Dale Robinson ranks No. 9 among NFL wideouts in targets this year (79). Robinson also never comes off the field. I’m ranking Robinson as a legitimate WR2 play. … Over New York’s last four games, Theo Johnson is averaging 6.3 targets and four catches on a 92% playing-time clip. The Packers have given up the NFL’s seventh-most TE receptions (60).

Score Prediction: Giants 24, Packers 23

 

 

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Team Totals: Steelers 27, Bengals 21.5

The Bengals return from Week 10’s bye to face a Jekyll & Hyde Steelers defense they waxed for 33 points with Joe Flacco quarterbacking on Week 7 Thursday Night Football. In four starts since being acquired from Cleveland, Flacco is fantasy’s overall QB2 in per-game scoring, averaging 313.5 passing yards with an 11:2 TD-to-INT ratio. Pittsburgh has made some defensive tweaks and gotten a bit healthier up front since Week 7, but still lacks the requisite secondary personnel to cover Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Flacco is a locked-in fantasy QB1 in another potential track meet. … Chase Brown will warrant legitimate RB1 valuation should Samaje Perine (ankle) miss Week 11. Perine went down on the Bengals’ first drive in Week 9; Brown went on to play 96% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps, handled 19 touches, and drew 14(!) targets. The Bengals had a bye in Week 10, yet Perine still couldn’t practice early this week. Brown is fantasy’s RB11 in per-game PPR points with Flacco at QB.

Flacco’s 2025 target distribution: Chase 62; Higgins 29; Brown 23; Andrei Iosivas 18; Noah Fant 14. … Chase’s receiving lines are 10/94/1, 16/161/1, 12/91/0, and 6/111/0 in Flacco’s starts. The Steelers have allowed a league-high 143 catches and an AFC-high 1,747 yards to opposing wide receivers. … Chase is fantasy’s WR2 in per-game PPR points since Flacco took over, while Higgins is fantasy’s WR5. Flacco-Chase-Higgins DFS stacks will warrant weekly consideration until Joe Burrow (toe surgery) returns. He’s targeting Week 13 or 14. … Fant hasn’t exceeded five targets or cleared 45 receiving yards in a game all year.

This is a get-right spot for Aaron Rodgers at home against a Bengals defense that’s allowed 113 points over its last three games and won’t have top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson (hip) or first-round EDGE Shemar Stewart (knee). On the season, Cincy ranks bottom four in the NFL in sacks (13) and bottom five in pressure rate (17.5%). Rodgers still hasn’t reached 250 passing yards or 10 rushing yards in a game this season, lowering his box-score ceiling regardless of opponent. … In Weeks 1-9 — leading into their Week 10 bye — Next Gen Stats charged the Bengals’ defense with a league-high 109 missed tackles for a league-high 778 yards. PFF graded starting ILBs Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight 87th and 88th out of 88 qualified off-ball linebackers. No team has surrendered more fantasy points to running backs than Cincinnati. Jaylen Warren has handled 15+ touches in four straight games.

Rodgers’ 2025 target distribution: DK Metcalf 54; Calvin Austin III and Jonnu Smith 36; Kenneth Gainwell 33; Pat Freiermuth 28; Warren 26; Darnell Washington 21; Roman Wilson 15. … A deep-ball receiver trapped in an offense led by a quarterback intent on getting rid of the football as quickly as possible, Metcalf has disappeared lately with a 36.5-yard average over Pittsburgh’s last four games. I’m still willing to bet on Sunday’s matchup to kickstart Metcalf; Cincy has yielded the NFL’s fourth-most 20+ yard completions (34) and can’t rush the passer, which should at least theoretically increase Rodgers’ willingness to throw downfield. … The Steelers have been so dissatisfied with their No. 2 wide receiver spot that Mike Tomlin suggested this week that practice squad signing Marquez Valdes-Scantling could join Austin and Wilson in the rotation. Not a single Pittsburgh wideout topped 35 yards in last week’s loss to the Chargers. … I’ve thrown up my hands at trying to forecast Steelers week-to-week tight end production all year. I’d side with Smith if forced to pick here. Jonnu has been running more pass routes than Freiermuth and Washington.

Score Prediction: Bengals 30, Steelers 24

 

 

L.A. Chargers @ Jacksonville

Team Totals: Chargers 23, Jaguars 20

Even while OC Greg Roman instituted a quick-pass offense that got the ball out of Justin Herbert’s hand at a career-low 2.2-second average, Herbert took nine hits and five sacks in Week 10’s win over the Steelers. The Chargers’ offensive line is a train wreck sans LT Joe Alt (ankle, I.R.), giving Jacksonville’s D/ST Week 11 streamer appeal. Herbert remains an every-week starter as fantasy’s QB6 in per-game scoring facing a Jags defense yielding the NFL’s third-most fantasy quarterback points. … Kimani Vidal banked career highs in snaps (93%) and touches (26) against Pittsburgh, having emerged as one of the NFL’s true every-down backs. Vidal is a volume-safe RB1/2 play against an above-average Jags run defense.

Re-solidifying himself as Herbert’s No. 1 wideout, Ladd McConkey is fantasy’s PPR WR3 over the last six weeks. Including playoffs, McConkey’s combined receiving line over his last 17 games is 99/1,362/8. … Jacksonville’s defense can be beaten deep, having coughed up the league’s sixth-most 20+ yard completions (31). The Bolts’ most dangerous deep threat, Quentin Johnston drew a team-high 10 targets and played 82% of L.A.’s offensive snaps last Sunday. I’m back on Johnston as an upside WR3. … Keenan Allen has finished below 60 yards in six of his last seven games and cleared 70 yards in one of 10 appearances. … Rookie TE phenom Oronde Gadsden II caused a scare when he left Week 10’s game with a quad injury, but it turned out to be a bruise, and Gadsden is practicing fully this week. Only the Bengals have conceded more fantasy points to tight ends than the Jags this season.

Trevor Lawrence draws a Chargers defense allowing the NFL’s fourth-lowest completion rate (59.9%), third-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.3), and second-lowest passer rating (75.6). Travis Hunter (LCL surgery) is done for the season, while Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle), Parker Washington (hamstring), and Brenton Strange (hip, I.R.) are nursing injuries. Trade deadline acquisition Jakobi Meyers, who played behind Washington and Tim Patrick last week, is still learning Liam Coen’s offense. Jacksonville’s Week 11 pass-catcher corps is a full-on toss-up against a Bolts defense permitting the league’s second-fewest fantasy WR points and sixth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. … Coen has gone exceptionally run-heavy in two games since Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye; Travis Etienne averaged 22.5 touches in that span. The Chargers present a middling to below-average matchup — yielding the NFL’s 12th-fewest fantasy RB points — but rookie Bhayshul Tuten has failed to make an upward move.

Score Prediction: Chargers 23, Jaguars 17

 

 

Seattle @ L.A. Rams

Team Totals: Rams 25.5, Seahawks 22.5

Both winners of four straight games, the 7-2 Seahawks visit the 7-2 Rams in a battle for the NFC West lead. Identifiable advantages are few on both sides. Seattle’s passing game is built on explosive verticality, yet Los Angeles has allowed the NFL’s seventh-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.6) and seventh-fewest 20+ yard completions (24) while ranking eighth in both sacks (27) and pressure rate (24%). The Rams have held their opponent to 10 points or fewer four times this season, most in the league. I’m keeping statistical expectations in check for Sam Darnold in Week 11. … Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet continue to form a near-even timeshare in which Charbonnet is the favorite for scoring-position and passing-down usage, whereas Walker accumulates more situation-nonspecific touches. Only the Patriots have permitted fewer fantasy running back points than the Rams. As usual, Walker and Charbonnet remain dicey RB2/flex options.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the NFL with 1,041 receiving yards, 210 more than runner-up Ja’Marr Chase. JSN has been fantasy’s most matchup-proof wideout all year. … Rashid Shaheed figures to take control of Seattle’s No. 2 receiver role soon after being eased in during Week 10’s blowout of Arizona. Yet reliable vet Cooper Kupp is healthy again, and Week 9 star Tory Horton (groin/shin) appears likely to play after missing last week. Smith-Njigba is the Seahawks’ lone fantasy-trustworthy wide receiver. … Seattle’s improved WR depth reduces box-score projections for rotating tight ends A.J. Barner and Elijah Arroyo.

Nothing about Matthew Stafford’s Week 11 matchup is favorable; Seattle has allowed the NFL’s fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.4) and fifth-lowest passer rating (83.3) while ranking No. 2 in sacks (32) and No. 5 in pressure rate (25.4%). Stafford is presently No. 2 in MVP odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and has a 20:0 TD-to-INT ratio over his last six games. But this does not profile as a statistic-friendly spot. … The Rams have stressed involving Blake Corum on a rotational basis in recent weeks, but I bet we’ll see Kyren Williams more fully featured here. For both NFC West contenders, this is nearly the equivalent of a playoff game in terms of importance. It helps that Williams has gotten hot lately, averaging 4.7 yards per carry over his last three games and going four straight without a fumble.

Even if Stafford doesn’t deliver a prolific box score, we can count on the Rams’ razor-thin target distribution to boost Puka Nacua and Davante Adams’ production floors. Nacua and Adams have accounted for 52% of Stafford’s targets; Williams is third on the team in target share at 9.6%. Puka has banked 90+ yards and/or a TD in seven of eight appearances this year. Adams left Week 10 with an oblique injury but is fully expected to face Seattle. Adams leads the league in red-zone targets (21), targets inside the 10 (14), and receiving TDs (9).

Score Prediction: Rams 23, Seahawks 17

 

 

San Francisco @ Arizona

Team Totals: 49ers 25.5, Cardinals 22.5

Finally back from a painful turf toe condition that cost him most of the last two months, Brock Purdy’s outlook is a mystery after he initially went down in Week 1, then aggravated the injury in Week 4. Purdy did bank respectable results of QB14 (Week 1) and QB13 (Week 4) in his early-season appearances, but Arizona is a formidable foe, yielding the NFL’s eighth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8) and seventh-lowest passer rating (86.4). The Cardinals have allowed the league’s seventh-fewest fantasy QB points. … To compensate for a potentially injury-hindered quarterback and a certainly decimated defense, Kyle Shanahan’s offense should continue to revolve around Christian McCaffrey, who already leads the NFL in touches (249) and has 69 catches, 20 more than any other back. Arizona has posed a middling matchup for running backs this year. CMC’s draw is improved by the absence of Cardinals MLB Mack Wilson (ribs) and OLB Baron Browning (concussion).

George Kittle is the 49ers pass catcher I’m most bullish on in Purdy’s return. Kittle finished as fantasy’s overall TE2 (2023) and TE1 (2024) with Purdy behind center the past two years and dispelled health concerns by catching 17 of 18 targets for 159 yards and two TDs while playing 89% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps over the last three weeks. … Third in the NFL in receiving yards in Weeks 1-3, Ricky Pearsall sprained his PCL in Week 4 and is now finally due back. The 49ers envision Pearsall as their top route-running wideout, but Jauan Jennings is solidly atop the depth chart, and Kendrick Bourne is a coaching staff favorite. Arizona has given up the NFL’s 10th-most catches (114) to wide receivers. In Week 11, I’m valuing Jennings as a sturdy WR3/flex, Pearsall as a risky WR3/flex, and Bourne as a WR5.

A top-12 fantasy quarterback in four straight weeks, Jacoby Brissett faces a depleted 49ers defense that surrendered top-12 QB1 finishes in each of its last three games and can’t rush the passer. The Nick Bosa-less Niners’ 13.7% pressure rate is the lowest in the league. Marvin Harrison Jr.’s (appendix) absence removes Arizona’s most dangerous perimeter threat, but Brissett can be efficient from a clean pocket and is obviously willing to feed Trey McBride relentlessly in scoring position. … Bam Knight is battling an ankle injury. The Cards have typecast Emari Demercado as a situational role player. Michael Carter might be the worst running back in the league. Arizona’s backfield is a vague three-way committee, and there’s been no positive news recently regarding Trey Benson’s (knee, I.R.) timetable for return.

McBride profiles as an obvious Week 11 volume monster sans Harrison. Even with Harrison in the lineup, McBride averaged 11.5 targets and 8.0 catches in Brissett’s initial four starts. It’s rare air for any tight end. … Harrison is out, Zay Jones tore his Achilles last week, and Simi Fehoko (wrist) hit I.R. on Wednesday, leaving Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch atop the wideout depth chart. San Francisco has yielded the NFL’s fifth-most yards to opposing wide receivers (1,546). I’m supporting diminutive playmaker Dortch as a Week 11 sleeper.

Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Cardinals 23

 

 

Baltimore @ Cleveland

Team Totals: Ravens 23, Browns 15.5

Winners of three straight, the Ravens can get to .500 with a victory at Cleveland. Matchup advantages are few for Baltimore skill players against a disruptive Browns defense on the road, but the Ravens boast one of the NFL’s healthiest offenses at this point, while Lamar Jackson is fantasy’s QB3 in per-game scoring. Lamar has faced Cleveland five times since Jim Schwartz became Browns defensive coordinator in 2023, tallying weekly FF finishes of QB12, QB9, QB15, QB3, and QB3. … Schwartz’s defense is systematically constructed to stop the run, this year having held enemy backs to 3.7 yards per carry and the league’s third-fewest fantasy points. I’m approaching Derrick Henry as a touchdown-or-bust RB1/2 here.

Jackson’s 2025 target distribution: Zay Flowers 37; Mark Andrews 24; Rashod Bateman 22; Justice Hill 17; DeAndre Hopkins 12; Henry 9; Isaiah Likely 8; Charlie Kolar 7. … Jackson has been hyper-efficient when throwing to Flowers; Zay has a 76% catch rate while averaging 15.1 yards per catch and 11.4 yards per target on passes from Lamar. Flowers is an upside WR2 starter. … Continuing to share time with Likely, Andrews is arguably the most touchdown-reliant TE1 in the league. He’s cleared 35 yards in just one of nine games. … I will be mildly intrigued by Hopkins as a Week 11 punt should Bateman (ankle) sit at Cleveland.

The Ravens’ now-healthy defense has permitted 19 points or fewer in four straight games, while Cleveland has scored 20 or fewer in eight of nine games this year. Last week, the Browns yielded a whopping 56% pressure rate and six sacks to the Jets’ ordinarily league-average pass rush. Dillon Gabriel is an attack target for D/STs. As losses continue to pile up, I think we may see owner Jimmy Haslam intervene to push for Shedeur Sanders. … Averaging 3.1 yards per carry in his last four appearances, Quinshon Judkins may have hit a rookie wall after missing all of training camp, then averaging 19.3 touches over his first eight NFL games. Dylan Sampson (30%) and Jerome Ford (19%) accounted for meaningful playing time behind Judkins in Week 10’s loss to the Jets. As the lead back on an exceptionally low-scoring team without a legitimate passing-game role, Judkins is a boom-bust RB2 gamble.

Cedric Tillman came off I.R. in Week 10 to operate as the Browns’ clear-cut No. 2 receiver behind Jerry Jeudy against the Jets. Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku’s tight end committee continued, but Fannin ran 11 more routes and out-targeted Njoku 7 to 2. Due to general offensive limitations against a rejuvenated Ravens defense, it’s difficult to get excited about any Cleveland pass catcher. Fannin would be my pick if forced to choose from the crew. Jeudy has scored one touchdown in his last 13 games and cleared 70 yards once this year.

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Browns 10

 

 

Kansas City @ Denver

Team Totals: Chiefs 23.5, Broncos 20

In Patrick Mahomes’ three meetings with Denver since Vance Joseph became Broncos defensive coordinator in 2023, these two teams have played to exceptionally low-scoring results of 16-14, 24-9, and 19-8. The Chiefs are coming off Week 10’s bye — Andy Reid’s post-bye success is well known — while Denver’s losses of top CB Patrick Surtain II (pec) and ILB Alex Singleton (testicular surgery) boost Mahomes’ outlook slightly. Yet Mahomes has thrown for 300+ yards in just one of nine starts this season, while the Broncos have allowed a league-low eight passing TDs. We should expect Mahomes to produce at the low end of his range of usual outcomes. … Isiah Pacheco (knee) isn’t ready to return; in Week 9’s pre-bye loss to Buffalo, Kareem Hunt handled 12 touches on a 78% playing-time clip with Brashard Smith (3, 20%) distantly behind. Hunt remains a TD-dependent RB2/flex option.

In PPR scoring, Rashee Rice’s weekly fantasy finishes since coming off suspension are WR10 (vs. LV), WR2 (vs. WAS), and WR12 (@ BUF). Due to his high-percentage route tree and red-zone-dominant usage, I consider Rice a matchup-agnostic WR1. … Xavier Worthy has hit 55 receiving yards in one of seven games. He’s more likely to run clear-out routes than be fed footballs with Rice on the field. … Hollywood Brown has played 43% or fewer of K.C.’s offensive snaps in all three games since Rice’s return. Brown hasn’t topped four targets in a game since Week 5. … Travis Kelce hasn’t gone away in the slightest, even with Kansas City’s wideout corps at full strength. Kelce’s 13.2 yards-per-reception average is his highest since 2020, while Kelce’s 10.2 yards per target are the most of his career. He’s a solid TE1.

Exposed nationally as the Broncos’ biggest liability last Thursday night against Las Vegas, Bo Nix reacted to nonexistent pressure, played frenetically, literally jumped to make throws, and threw balls that died downfield. Nix is a fringe QB1/2 in this projected low-scoring affair. … Sans J.K. Dobbins (foot), Week 11 on paper represents RJ Harvey’s big chance in what should be a neutral-scoring game. But K.C. defends the run stoutly, while there are no guarantees Harvey escapes a three-way RBBC with Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin available to contribute. The Chiefs have yielded the NFL’s sixth-fewest fantasy RB points.

Week 11 optimism for Broncos WRs deserves to be muted against a Chiefs defense that’s conceded a league-low 1,019 yards to wide receivers. Perhaps slowing down on the wrong side of 30, Courtland Sutton has hit 70 yards once in his last five games. Troy Franklin has out-targeted Sutton in four straight contests but could lose snaps to Marvin Mims Jr., who missed the last two weeks with a concussion. Rookie WR Pat Bryant made a big 43-yard catch to set up Denver’s lone touchdown in Week 10’s win over Vegas, while the Broncos signed longtime Sean Payton favorite Lil’Jordan Humphrey off the Giants’ practice squad this week. … Playing less than blocking TE Adam Trautman, Evan Engram hasn’t exceeded 42 yards in an individual 2025 game and has scored one TD over his last 14 appearances.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 20, Broncos 17

 

 

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

 

Sunday Night Football

Detroit @ Philadelphia

Team Totals: Lions 22, Eagles 24.5

It took Dan Campbell seizing the team’s play-calling duties from John Morton ahead of Week 10 for the Lions to move back into first place atop the NFC North. Experiencing their highest rates of play-action (48.6%) and pre-snap motion (80%) in the change, it’s worth noting the Eagles have permitted 9.3 yards per attempt (26th) with the fifth-highest EPA/dropback against play-action. Jared Goff, a fringe QB1 for this environment, additionally pummeled the Commanders (for 191 yards and three TDs) on quick throws, and a similar approach would mute Philadelphia’s otherwise ferocious pass rush. … Jahmyr Gibbs mirrored David Montgomery in carries (15) on the surface against Washington but doubled up his teammate in yards from scrimmage (172-71). Gibbs logically has a leg up against an Eagles front seven that’s been carved for a 47.1% Success Rate (28th) on the ground, but there’s always the chance Montgomery falls forward for multiple scores as a matchup-based RB3.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been targeted on 43% of his routes without Sam LaPorta (back, ruled out) on the field, per SIS. … Campbell followed through on his sentiment that Jameson Williams is “a cheat code” on crossing routes, peppering the speedster for 86% of his targets within 19 yards of the line of scrimmage. With 20% of the team’s targets in three of his last four games, Williams has clearly graduated from a volatile FLEX to an every-week WR3 who should be acquired before the fantasy playoffs. … Morton mentioned the team was planning to get third-rounder Isaac TeSlaa “more involved” only for the 6-foot-4 specimen to run eight routes total (to Kalif Raymond’s 17). Perhaps LaPorta’s absence elevates TeSlaa as a single-game punt (since his ceiling on limited usage remains higher than Raymond’s). … Either Brock Wright or Ross Dwelley could find the end zone in goal-line packages against Philly, but rostering either is more cute than logical given the Eagles’ 37.5 weekly yards leaked to TEs (fourth).

Versatile CB Terrion Arnold suffered an in-game concussion (and was ruled out for this one on Friday), but the Lions still logged 42% of their snaps from man coverage in Week 10 — Jalen Hurts ranks second in YPA (8.9) and passing TDs (13) against said scheme. Detroit’s 26.1 per-week rushing yards allowed to QBs is the cherry on top of his QB1 status. … Eagles RT Lane Johnson and C Cam Jurgens are both cleared to play, and Detroit’s front seven has not been tested by an explosive RB since ‘limiting’ Derrick Henry to 12/50/1 and 4.1 yards per carry in Week 3. You’re not overthinking Saquon Barkley’s eligibility in season-long leagues, of course, but it’s certainly worth testing his upside in showdown in case Detroit’s run defense is flawed. Will Shipley additionally ran seven routes (to Barkley’s 16) on Monday night if you need a punt.

Even in being out-targeted 34-26 by DeVonta Smith in four games together since October, this on-paper matchup favors A.J. Brown, who’s been targeted on 36.1% of his routes against man coverage (fifth) for 243 receiving yards (second) and 3.98 Yards Per Route Run (fourth). Smith is no slouch as a WR2 regardless, producing 18.6 per-game points since Week 5. … The Lions have only had to defend T.J. Hockenson (2/11/1) and Zach Ertz (4/54/0) since returning from their bye, but they allowed top-12 scores to Travis Kelce (6/78/0) and Cade Otton (7/65/0) before. Dallas Goedert remains fantasy’s TE5 in points per game.

Score Prediction: Eagles 34, Lions 28

 

 

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

 

Monday Night Football

Dallas @ Las Vegas

Team Totals: Cowboys 26.5, Raiders 23

Even in stumbling for 24 and 17 points in back-to-back losses before their bye, the Cowboys return with the second-highest team total (26.5) of Week 11. The Raiders have only generated pressure on 32.8% of enemy dropbacks (23rd), insulating Dak Prescott in a fantasy-friendly environment as a high-floor QB1. … Dallas’ inability to find an RB2 elevated Javonte Williams for 16 of 17 backfield touches in a blowout before the bye. Phil Mafah will presumably return from injured reserve as Williams’ contingency plan (over Malik Davis) after the Cowboys willingly healthy-scratched Jaydon Blue in Week 9 for his recent fumble and pass-pro mistakes, but that rotating door benefits the veteran further as a fringe RB1.

CeeDee Lamb (33.3%), George Pickens (25%), and Jake Ferguson (19.4%) hoarded 78% of Prescott’s targets against the Cardinals, boxing out the rest of their teammates for fantasy. Averaging 3.6 fewer points than expected for his elite opportunity since returning, Lamb remains their unquestioned WR1, and this on-paper matchup favors Pickens (over Ferguson) behind him: The Raiders have limited TEs to the sixth-fewest yards per game (39.5). … Ryan Flournoy out-snapped both KaVontae Turpin and Jalen Tolbert against Arizona, hauling in his first career TD in garbage time. Any trailing game script would tilt the scales in his favor.

Geno Smith could barely walk after his TNF injury in Denver, but he was not given a single designation on the team’s injury report. Bull-rushing DT Quinnen Williams adds volatility to Geno’s otherwise streaming outlook, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt (21st) when pressured. … The Raiders’ OL, already missing LT Kolton Miller, cratered vs. DEN after losing RG Jackson Powers-Johnson, limiting Ashton Jeanty to another sub-3.0 yard-per-touch outing. Emari Demercado’s efficient 14/79/0 performance the last time Dallas took the field gives Jeanty touch-based RB1 hope before his managers are advised to sell him.

Raiders OC Chip Kelly admitted he “didn’t do a good job” feeding Brock Bowers after the All-World tight end totaled a single catch in Thursday’s loss. Don’t overthink his sky-high ceiling indoors. … Tre Tucker ran a route on 100% of Las Vegas’ dropbacks in their first game without Jakobi Meyers (Jaguars), and that’s all that matters for his FLEX value against Dallas, which even let Marvin Harrison Jr. set a career-high mark in catches (7) as the week’s overall WR6 the last time they played. Tucker’s box score against the Broncos would look a lot different if Dont’e Thornton’s blown pick play didn’t negate his teammate’s TD. … Tyler Lockett’s 25% target share in place of Meyers on Thursday makes him FLEX viable in showdown. … Michael Mayer has earned 17.9% and 14.8% target shares with Bowers the last two weeks due to the Raiders’ increased rate of 12 personnel. 

Score Prediction: Cowboys 28, Raiders 24