Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Sunday Night Football

Seattle @ Washington

Team Totals: Seahawks 25.5, Commanders 22.5

Even in traveling cross-country for this matchup, Sam Darnold ranks as a high-floor QB2 for Seattle’s 25.5-point team total, equivalent to Buffalo’s (in the matchup of the week) and Arizona’s (against the league’s worst defense). Commanders HC Dan Quinn has schemed 48% (fourth) of the team’s defensive snaps from man coverage, which Darnold has flamed for a 65% completion rate (fifth) and 9.0 yards per attempt (second). Jayden Daniels’ availability on the other side should push the Seahawks through the air. … There is no worse feeling in fantasy than being forced to start either Kenneth Walker III or Zach Charbonnet, understanding they’re in a neck-and-neck timeshare with Charbs having the higher ceiling for out-carrying KWIII 8-2 (for four TDs) inside the 5. If purely banking on Walker to spike a long score, there’s hope: Washington’s permitted 2.4 yards after contact per run (eighth) and, before facing Kansas City’s sluggish backs, ceded 6.1 yards per carry to both Dallas and Chicago.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s league-best 4.27 Yards Per Route Run continues to be matchup-proof. Washington has additionally allowed 9.0 YPA from play-action (24th), a play-call JSN has (somehow) accumulated even stronger YPRR (6.4) from this year. … Opposing WR2s have stacked 50 receiving yards against the Commanders for a month straight, including Xavier Worthy’s 5/53/0 Monday night — FLEX hope for fifth-rounder Tory Horton in place of Cooper Kupp (out). Horton otherwise went catchless in his last two games. Seventh-round rookie Ricky White III will logically step into 3-WR sets as a cheap punt over Jake Bobo (Achilles’), Dareke Young (quad), and Kupp. … Even in running just 13 routes against Houston, No. 50 overall pick Elijah Arroyo was targeted on 38% of them for 4/42/0. There’s post-bye rookie hype for him in this spot ahead of A.J. Barner, who’s been on the field significantly more (with a 69% route rate) to date. It could be nothing, but the Commanders were spiked for three TDs by Jake Ferguson (7/29/2) and Travis Kelce (6/99/1) since Week 7.

Trending toward full strength, Seattle’s defense pressured C.J. Stroud on 39% of his dropbacks (11th) and Trevor Lawrence on 51% of his (fourth). In other words, LT Laremy Tunsil’s availability through his hamstring injury (suffered on Monday night against K.C.) is prudent for Jayden Daniels’ success as a top-six option. For what it’s worth, Seattle laid down for 41 rushing yards against the only mobile QB (Kyler Murray) they’ve faced. … Sunday night is another easy spot to bench Jacory Croskey-Merritt for Seattle’s No. 4 Rushing Success Rate and 1.5 yards after contact per attempt (third). Don’t overlook Jeremy McNichols on one-game slates after he accrued six targets (20% share) to JCM’s one (3.3%) on Monday night: The Seahawks have defended a league-high 7.9 targets to enemy RBs.

Terry McLaurin was practically ruled out the moment he reaggravated his quad injury Monday. Note that Deebo Samuel, although clearly hampered by his own heel injury for 2.9 yards per touch the last two games, earned an elite 34% target share in the only three starts he finished with Daniels. Deebo’s recent inefficiency on a short week, while worth leveraging in showdown, qualifies him as a WR2/3 for managed leagues. … Chris Moore’s three games in place of McLaurin with Daniels under center resulted in as many end-zone targets as Deebo and Zach Ertz as a minimum-priced dart for showdown. Luke McCaffrey, albeit only available for 2.5 of those games, led Washington with a 24.8-yard depth of target in that time, but Seattle has notoriously leaked just 9.5 YPA (fifth) on throws 20 yards deep. Jaylin Lane has also been Deebo’s direct replacement, running a route on 55% of dropbacks in Weeks 6 and 7 but, with Samuel available in six surrounding performances, registering a 38% route rate (for an 8% target share). … The Seahawks remain one of only six defenses allowing 67 yards to TEs, giving Ertz a high floor for seeing at least five targets in four of five starts with Daniels.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 27, Commanders 21