Thursday Night Football

N.Y. Jets @ New England

Team Totals: Patriots 28.5, Jets 15

Even after back-to-back wins, the Jets visit Foxboro in a dismal state. They traded their best two defensive players last week. Their first-year head coach is combative, defensive, and paranoid. Their owner sows locker-room division. Their quarterback could be benched for his 36-year-old journeyman backup at a moment’s notice. Last week, New York’s best pass catcher aggravated a pre-existing knee injury and could miss a month. And they’re nearly two-touchdown road dogs here. The only fantasy format where Justin Fields is playable this week is on single-game DFS tournament slates. … After surprisingly holding onto him through last week’s trade deadline, the Jets fed Breece Hall 22 touches on a 71% playing-time rate in Gang Green’s Week 10 win over the Browns. Isaiah Davis (4, 29%) took a clear back seat. Yet Thursday night’s projected flow bodes poorly for the Jets’ chances of repeating last week’s run-friendly game script, while no team in the league has permitted fewer fantasy running back points than the Patriots. Hall is a high-risk, low-floor RB2 bet.

Sans Garrett Wilson (knee), Mason Taylor is probably the Jets’ best bet for pass-catching production. Among healthy Jets wideouts and tight ends, Taylor leads the team in targets (31), catches (21), yards (188), and first-down conversions (13) on Fields’ 2025 throws. New England has allowed the fifth-most catches (61) and sixth-most yards (654) to tight ends. … In order, fourth-round rookie burner Arian Smith, big slot Tyler Johnson, and smurfish return type Isaiah Williams ranked 1-2-3 among Jets WRs in Week 10 snaps. Deadline pickup Adonai Mitchell, easily the most talented wide receiver on the team, was inactive for Week 10 but could rotate in here. They’re all mere dart throws on one-game DFS slates.

At DraftKings Sportsbook, your MVP favorite is currently Drake Maye, who’s quarterbacked the Patriots to seven straight wins and a two-game lead atop the AFC East. Also fantasy’s overall QB4 in per-game scoring, Maye now draws a Jets defense that’s surrendered the NFL’s seventh-highest passer rating (103.6) and fifth-most QB rushing yards (233). Maye ranks sixth at his position in rushing (283). … With Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) and Terrell Jennings (knee) both limited in early-week practices, the complexion of New England’s backfield could go down to the wire. Picking up the blitz to perfection and banging long runs on hefty workloads lately, TreVeyon Henderson is an exciting start against the Quinnen Williams-less Jets defense regardless. In last week’s win over Tampa Bay, Henderson reached 22.01 MPH on his 69-yard touchdown run, the fastest timed speed by any rookie ball carrier this season. And PFF charged Henderson with zero pressures allowed in pass protection. I’ll put a backfield update below this paragraph before Thursday night’s kickoff.

UPDATE: Patriots ruled out Rhamondre Stevenson (toe). Terrell Jennings (knee) is listed as questionable. I expect another feature back-type workload for TreVeyon Henderson, who averaged 16.5 touches on a 79% playing-time rate minus Stevenson over the last two games. Henderson performed well in both opportunities, but I think he can go truly ballistic here.

Kayshon Boutte’s (hamstring) status is also TBD, and his availability affects the outlooks for rookie Kyle Williams and usual wind sprinter Mack Hollins in particular. In Boutte’s absence last week, Hollins led New England in targets (10) and receiving (6/106/0), while Williams took a play-action lob to the house from 72 yards away in the first quarter versus Tampa Bay. Stefon Diggs and Pop Douglas’ roles were unchanged. Thursday’s matchup is a cinch; Sauce Gardner is gone, his fill-in Azareye’h Thomas will sit with a concussion, and no other Jets corners have been able to cover anyone all year. Jerry Jeudy had his best game of the season against this same Gang Green secondary last week. … Hunter Henry warrants a projection boost on TNF. No. 2 TE Austin Hooper, who’s been playing 56% of New England’s offensive snaps, will be inactive for this one due to a concussion.

Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Jets 10