Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football

Philadelphia @ Green Bay

Team Totals: Eagles 21, Packers 23.5

The Eagles return from their bye having found their footing with three of their four highest Pass Rates Over Expectation in the last month. A.J. Brown missed Week 8 with a hamstring injury but, in his last three appearances, aided Jalen Hurts for 10.4 Air Yards per attempt as a strong QB1. … Green Bay’s struggled to stop the run post-bye (including Rico Dowdle’s most recent 25/130/2 performance) with the league’s fifth-highest Success Rate allowed — hope for Saquon Barkley as a low-end RB1 after he left Philly’s last game early with a groin injury. If hampered in the slightest, note that Tank Bigsby out-carried Will Shipley 7-2 sans Saquon in the fourth quarter of Week 8.

DeVonta Smith surged ahead of A.J. Brown in their last three games together with Smith stacking 26 targets (for multiple 100-yard performances) to Brown’s 23. Although both are viewed as top-24 plays, Smith gets an on-paper bump for Green Bay’s propensity to funnel 6.5 targets weekly to enemy WR2s (ninth). AJB, per usual, is more than capable of spiking a long TD in any instance the Pack shift to man coverage, which Brown has scorched for 4.26 Yards Per Route Run (fourth) to date. … For what it’s worth, Jahan Dotson ran 21 routes without Brown in Week 8 and converted that increased opportunity into a single 40-yard catch. … Fantasy’s TE4 in points per game, Dallas Goedert has multiple TDs in his range of outcomes for leading Philly in targets inside the 20, where the Packers have permitted a top-10 scoring rate.

There’s some systemic risk for this Packers offense moving forward sans Tucker Kraft (torn ACL): As one of the most dynamic and versatile TEs in the league, Green Bay’s offense has unsurprisingly sputtered for a 38.9% Success Rate (29th) and 5.1 yards per play (24th) with him off the field (per Sports Info Solutions), not to mention Jordan Love’s 4.7 yards per attempt under pressure (33rd) compared to 9.9 when kept clean (second) — volatile splits that suggest he should be left on the bench in 12-team formats for Philadelphia’s above-average pressure created (31.3%, 13th), with both Jaelen Phillips (acquired from Dolphins) and Nolan Smith (returning from I.R.) expected to play. … Philadelphia’s bend-but-don’t-break run defense projects Josh Jacobs for a touch-based RB1 floor, and only Jonathan Taylor has more carries inside the 10- and 5-yard lines. Emanuel Wilson’s 14 and 7 touches in the last two weeks (with Jacobs playing through a calf injury) leave him as a single-game punt.

Normally a log-jammed target tree, Matthew Golden’s shoulder injury funnels the team’s opportunity to Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson after the latter’s route participation increased to 75% in his second game back, and WR2s have nicked up the Eagles for 73.7 yards per game (second). Doubs remains a high-floor WR2 himself if only for sponging a team-high 24% target share without Kraft on the field. … Dontayvion Wicks led the team in slot rate when he was available post-bye, but that’s the area of the field where Philly has strangled WRs for the fifth-fewest per-game points. If anything, Wicks’ presence leaves Savion Williams on the outside looking in since the rookie ran 69% of his routes the past two weeks from the slot. Malik Heath could be the beneficiary (and cheap DFS punt) for Golden, running the fewest slot routes among this group since Week 8. Bo Melton would only be relevant as a stone-minimum play if Williams and Golden are scratched. … Once Kraft was lost for the year in the third quarter, Luke Musgrave stepped in for a route on 67% of dropbacks, mirroring Watson for second on the team in targets (3, 14.3%). Although Musgrave is the pick to replace his teammate (as a low-end TE2) in managed leagues, there’s leverage to be had in showdown with John FitzPatrick’s ambiguous role. It’s a miserable spot otherwise, as Philly has limited TEs to the fourth-fewest yards per week (37.4).

Score Prediction: Eagles 28, Packers 20