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Episode Description
SpaceX – Price almost $135 – full retracement.
Earnings season in on – here we go!
Inflation – choppy.
War back on! Straits Open? Or?
New Diet? CYCLOSPORIASIS
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Warm-Up
- CTP for SpaceX - Price almost hit $135 yesterday
- Earnings season 0 here we go!
- Inflation - choppy
- War back on! Straits Open? Or?
New Diet? CYCLOSPORIASIS
Markets
- Inflation - Some Relief
- IBM's Pre-Annnouncment - What does this say?
- Bank earnings and an earnings cheat sheet
- Some interesting chart data
Health Update: Meniscus Repair next Thursday....
Today IBM stood for 'I Be Melting' as Big Blue turned into Big Blew Up...
IBM: It's Been Murdered
IBM: I Bought Misery
IBM: Investment Board Malfunction
Big Blue looked more like Deep Red today
The only cloud around IBM today was hanging over the stock chart
IBM investors got a free software update: Version 2.0 of disappointment.
IBM'S AI FACE-PLANT
- IBM shares plunged as much as 25%, putting the stock on pace for its worst session on record.
- Preliminary revenue was $17.2 billion versus expectations near $17.9 billion.
- Adjusted earnings were projected at $2.93 per share versus roughly $3.01 expected.
- Management said customers redirected spending toward AI servers, memory and hardware while delaying software purchases.
- The drop removed roughly 375 points from the price-weighted DJIA.
- JCD and AH were both right and wrong for the weekly stock picks
TRUTH?
- President Trump says U.S. blockade will apply only to ships from Iranian ports; says Strait of Hormuz is open to all traffic except for Iran; says "Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States reimbursement fee with trade and investment deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States"
- Can never be proven - no real numbers here.... Clearly needed to walk back the 20% item
- Hormuz still hobbled - best estimates are that the ships passing are 20% of pre-war levels
INFLATION RELIEF - FOR NOW
- June CPI rose 3.5% year over year, down from 4.2% in May and below the 3.8% consensus.
- Core CPI held at 2.6%.
- Falling gasoline and energy prices drove much of the improvement.
- Traders sharply reduced expectations for a July Fed rate increase.
- Treasury yields fell and the Nasdaq advanced.
WALL STREET BANKS PRINT MONEY
- JPMorgan posted $21.2 billion in net income, helped by special items.
- Markets revenue rose 35% to $12.1 billion, including an 86% jump in equities revenue.
- Bank of America earned $9.1 billion as equities trading revenue increased 70%.
- Goldman Sachs reported earnings of $20.98 per share and a 23.5% annualized return on common equity.
- Jamie Dimon described conditions as close to "as good as it gets."
THE $26.5 BILLION AI-MEMORY IPO - $ GRAB
- SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion through a Nasdaq ADR listing.
- The offering priced at $149 and finished approximately 13% higher the day of the offering, but sunk the next.
- Demand reportedly exceeded the available shares by more than seven times.
- SK Hynix supplies high-bandwidth memory used in Nvidia-powered AI systems.
- The listing gives U.S. investors direct access to one of the largest beneficiaries of AI infrastructure spending.
- - Samsung is on tap to do the same thing...
Some Interesting Charts
OIL'S CEASEFIRE WHIPLASH
- Brent crude jumped 5.2% to $78.02 a barrel after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire broke down.
- WTI rose 4.4% to $73.52.
- Markets repriced the risk of interrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Energy stocks gained while airlines and the broader market weakened.
- Rising oil prices could quickly reverse the energy-related improvement seen in the June inflation report.
APPLE SUES OPENAI - AI PARTNERS TURN RIVALS
- Apple sued OpenAI and two former Apple employees on July 10, alleging coordinated theft of hardware trade secrets.
- The defendants include OpenAI hardware chief Tang Tan and technical employee Chang Liu, both former Apple employees.
- Apple claims confidential product designs and manufacturing information were taken to accelerate OpenAI's consumer-device program.
- More than 400 former Apple employees reportedly now work at OpenAI, highlighting the scale of the talent migration between the companies.
IPO AND MEGADEAL FEVER RETURNS
- Global deals valued above $10 billion reached record levels during the first half of 2026.
- Mega-deals represented approximately 43% of newly announced M&A volume.
- Investment-banking revenue surged across JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.
- Large offerings from SpaceX and SK Hynix added momentum to underwriting activity.
- The boom depends on high equity valuations, strong AI demand and large transactions continuing.
BANKS BANKS BANKS
JPMORGAN CHASE - RECORD PROFIT
- Profit reached a record $16.9 billion, or $6.14 per share, versus $5.59 expected.
- Managed revenue totaled $58 billion, with every major business reporting record revenue.
- Markets revenue rose 35%, led by an 86% surge in equities trading.
- Investment-banking revenue increased 30% to its highest level since 2021.
- Jamie Dimon warned that geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices remain major risks.
BANK OF AMERICA - TRADING RECORD
- Net income rose 27% to $9.1 billion, or $1.21 per share, versus $1.13 expected.
- Revenue increased 15% to $31.6 billion.
- Sales and trading revenue jumped 33% to a record $7.1 billion; equities revenue rose 70%.
- Investment-banking fees increased 50% to $2.1 billion.
- Full-year net-interest-income growth is now expected near the upper end of the previous 6% to 8% range.
GOLDMAN SACHS - DEAL BOOM
- Profit reached $6.63 billion, or $20.98 per share, versus $14.48 expected.
- Revenue totaled $20.3 billion.
- Equities revenue surged 72% to a record $7.42 billion.
- Fixed-income, currency and commodities revenue increased 32% to $4.59 billion.
- Investment-banking fees jumped 55%, helping send Goldman shares to a record high.
CITIGROUP - DECADE-HIGH REVENUE
- Net income jumped 45% to $5.8 billion, or $3.15 per share, versus roughly $2.74 expected.
- Revenue rose 14% to $24.8 billion, the bank's highest quarterly revenue in a decade.
- Investment-banking revenue increased 44% to $1.55 billion.
- Equities trading revenue rose 45%, while fixed-income trading increased 7%.
- Return on tangible common equity reached 13%, matching the upper end of management's target range.
WELLS FARGO - BACK ON OFFENSE
- Net income rose 22% to $6.4 billion, or $2.00 per share.
- Revenue reached $22.6 billion and topped expectations.
- Investment-banking revenue increased 20%.
- Markets revenue rose 24% as volatility boosted client activity.
- Management said the removal of regulatory growth restrictions is allowing the bank to deploy capital and expand its balance sheet.
Bank Returns Post Earnings (July 14, 2026)
Earnings Cheat Sheet
- JULY 15 - ASML: Expected EPS around $7.92 on $10.25 billion revenue; bookings, EUV demand and updated AI-chip equipment guidance will matter most.
- JULY 15 - JOHNSON & JOHNSON: Expected EPS around $2.86 on $25.02 billion revenue; watch pharmaceutical growth, medical-device demand and full-year guidance.
- JULY 15 - MORGAN STANLEY: Expected EPS around $2.89 on $19.38 billion revenue; trading, investment banking and wealth-management inflows are the key numbers.
- JULY 15 - BLACKROCK: Expected EPS around $12.59 on $6.80 billion revenue; assets under management, ETF flows and private-market fundraising will be in focus.
- JULY 16 - TSMC: Expected EPS around $3.76-$3.77 on roughly $40 billion revenue; AI demand, gross margin and any increase to capital-spending guidance are critical.
- JULY 16 - UNITEDHEALTH: Expected EPS around $4.84 on $110.8 billion revenue; medical-cost trends and the durability of full-year guidance are the main issues.
- JULY 16 - GE AEROSPACE: Expected EPS around $1.85 on $11.8 billion revenue; engine deliveries, service revenue and supply-chain constraints will drive the reaction.
- JULY 16 - NETFLIX: Expected EPS around $0.79 on $12.58 billion revenue; advertising growth, engagement and operating-margin guidance will matter more than subscribers.
- JULY 17 - TRAVELERS: Expected EPS around $5.33 on roughly $11 billion revenue; catastrophe losses, insurance pricing and reserve development are the key swing factors.
- JULY 17 - FIFTH THIRD: Expected EPS around $0.98 on $3.25 billion revenue; net-interest income, deposit costs and credit quality will be closely watched.
WAYFAIR GOES PHYSICAL
- Wayfair opened its second large-format store in Atlanta on March 31, following the 2024 debut of its 150,000-square-foot Wilmette, Illinois flagship.
- The company is building a national store network, with Denver expected later in 2026 and Yonkers, Cincinnati and Princeton locations planned for 2027.
- The stores combine furniture, decor, appliances and home-improvement products, giving customers a chance to test large purchases before ordering.
- The strategy is a major reversal for an online-first retailer and is designed to increase brand awareness, reduce dependence on digital advertising and capture shoppers returning to physical stores.
AI SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND - PUBLIC OWNERSHIP DEBATE
- Bernie Sanders introduced legislation requiring the largest AI companies to transfer 50% of their equity into a U.S. sovereign wealth fund.
- The fund is projected by supporters to hold roughly $7 trillion and could finance annual public dividends and government services.
- OpenAI has separately floated a much smaller proposal in which major AI companies would voluntarily contribute about 5% of their equity.
- Supporters call it a way to share AI-created wealth; critics warn government ownership could discourage investment, distort regulation and reduce innovation.
PSA - That's what we do....CYCLOSPORIASIS OUTBREAK - CASES SURGE
- Cyclosporiasis cases are rising across more than 30 states, with Michigan, Ohio and New York reporting particularly large increases.
- The CDC reported at least 843 confirmed cases and 86 hospitalizations by July 9, but state totals and reporting delays suggest the real count is substantially higher.
- Lettuce, salad greens and other fresh produce are being investigated, although officials have not identified a specific product, supplier or national recall.
- The parasite causes prolonged or recurring watery diarrhea; washing produce may reduce risk, and persistent symptoms should prompt medical testing and treatment.
HOW TO REDUCE CYCLOSPORIASIS RISK (FWIW)
- Wash hands with soap before preparing food and after using the bathroom.
- Rinse fresh fruits, vegetables and herbs thoroughly under running water; scrubbing helps but cannot guarantee removal.
- Keep raw produce separate from unwashed items, dirty utensils and preparation surfaces.
- When traveling in tropical or subtropical areas, use safe water and avoid raw produce you cannot peel yourself; routine chemical sanitizers may not kill Cyclospora.
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