Recording date: 16th February 2026

Gold mining companies are generating unprecedented levels of free cash flow, with major producers like Agnico Eagle reporting more than $11 million per day in Q4 2024 at an average realized gold price near $4,200 per ounce. With gold prices running approximately $800 per ounce higher in the current quarter, that figure is tracking toward $15 million or more per day - a level that is fundamentally reshaping how companies think about capital allocation.

Speaking on the Compass podcast, Samuel Pelaez and Derek Macpherson of Olive Resource Capital argued that this cash flow environment gives producers the rare ability to pursue multiple priorities simultaneously: debt reduction, dividend increases, share buybacks, and acquisitions. That flexibility, they noted, sets the current cycle apart from previous periods in the sector.

The discussion comes as the mining industry enters its most active conference season of the year. An institutional-focused gathering in Miami is followed shortly by PDAC in Toronto - the world's largest mining conference - beginning around March 1st. Both events are expected to accelerate M&A discussions, as corporate development teams from major miners hold direct meetings with junior company management. Pelaez and Macpherson suggested that transaction announcements could coincide with or immediately follow PDAC.

In the near term, Chinese New Year - which began February 17th - introduces a period of thin liquidity across commodity markets as Chinese exchanges close for the week. The hosts characterized any resulting price volatility as mechanical rather than fundamental, and suggested investors treat sell-offs in stocks they already favor as potential entry points.

On the macro side, four factors continue to underpin the commodity bull market: expanding US manufacturing PMIs, resilient employment data, continued global liquidity growth, and a US fiscal deficit of approximately $800 billion - the third largest on record - reinforcing the case for hard assets even as the economy grows.

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